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Cash from operations hit USD57m (-88% YoY) while the total net debt 4,800 111
position at USD1.2bn (1.25x of net gearing) with interest coverage of 1.2x 4,300 99
in 1Q24, as costs for some of the ore required will be incurred at better levels 2,800 64
(equal to a cut in cash cost of c.USD200-300/tonne based on our scenario,
with estimated cash costs to be maintained at c.10-12k tonnes for NPI and 2,300 53
matte combined). Management is also aiming to increase spot price contracts 1,800 41
Apr-23
Apr-23
May-23
May-23
Aug-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Jan-24
Feb-24
Jun-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
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Mar-24
Mar-24
for its nickel matte (pegged at LME levels) going forward. For the ore sales
segment (excluding portions that are used internally), MDKA guided that
Source: Bloomberg
margins for limonite will stand at c.USD3/tonne – equal to c.15% of the
company’s total EBITDA. The allocated capex for this year stands at
c.USD500m – of this amount, c.USD100m has been earmarked for the Pani
Gold project, c.USD100m is for the Sulawesi Cahaya Mineral or SCM Mine,
and c.USD100m is meant the completion of the Acid, Iron, Metal or AIM
plant.
ESG and risks. Our TP includes an ESG discount of 6% based on MDKA’s 2.7
ESG score vs the 3.0 country median. Negative trends from an unexpected Overall ESG Score: 2.7 (out of 4)
downturn in the global economy will be the biggest downside risk, in our E: GOOD
view. For every 1% change from our LME base case price estimate (RHB MDKA has implemented its Environmental Management
Research’s FY24F average is USD18,500/tonne vs YTD at Plan, which reports quarterly data to the provincial
environmental agency at each mine site. Separately, one of
c.USD16,600/tonne), overall TP will change by ±c.2%. The nickel segment
the programmes (solar panels for internal ports) held at its
represent the main driver and risk for MDKA’s future topline. Wetar Project has successfully cut energy usage (electricity
and fuel) by 48% YoY in 2020.
S: GOOD
MDKA’s community investment was implemented through
Forecasts and Valuation Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
the Community Development and Empowerment
Total turnover (US Dm) 870 1,707 2,370 2,854 4,076 Programme (CDE). The social funds (USD3.4m) were
Recurring net profit (US Dm) 58 (21) 56 96 183 disbursed to communities in the three areas where it has
Recurring net profit growth (% ) 61.7 (135.4) - 71.2 91.7 operations – Banyuwangi District, Wetar Island, and
Recurring P/E (x) 58.46 na 63.64 37.18 19.40 Pohuwato District.
G: GOOD
P/B (x) 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.7
MDKA has developed policies to support its corporate
P/CF (x) 39.81 27.99 14.81 9.42 6.34
governance initiative, in accordance with regulations set by
Dividend Yield (% ) na na na na na the financial services authority. The precautionary
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.16 21.60 15.03 10.79 6.67 principles are applied by integrating risk-based
Return on average equity (% ) 6.6 (2.1) 5.7 8.7 14.9 management from input, and assessed by an audit
Net debtcover
Interest to equity
(x) (% ) 33.8
2.57 23.3
1.23 60.2
2.15 67.9
3.13 65.1
5.34 committee.
Source: Company data, RHB
Financial Exhibits
Asia Financial s ummary (US D) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
Indonesia Recurring EPS 0.00 - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01
Basic Materials BVPS 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05
Merdeka Copper Gold Return on average equity (% ) 6.6 (2.1) 5.7 8.7 14.9
MDKA IJ
Valuation metrics Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
Buy
Recurring P/E (x) 58.46 na 63.64 37.18 19.40
P/B (x) 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.7
Valuation basis
FCF Yield (% ) (25.8) (14.7) (15.0) (5.6) 5.2
Combination of DCF (WACC: c.9% and TG at 3%) and EV/EBITDA (x) 20.16 21.60 15.03 10.79 6.67
multiple (FY24F EV/EBITDA c.14x); focusing on existing EV/EBIT (x) 40.13 54.27 26.76 16.37 8.56
nickel (under Merdeka Battery Materials; MBMA IJ, NR;
c.50% ownership), copper, and additional gold output
Income s tatement (US Dm) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
Total turnover 870 1,707 2,370 2,854 4,076
Key drivers
Gross profit 165 146 277 457 823
i. Better outlook for commodity prices; EBITDA 222 243 416 606 985
ii. Stable increase in production; Depreciation and amortisation (111) (146) (182) (207) (217)
iii. More downstream business in nickel segment.
Operating profit 112 97 234 399 768
Net interest (43) (79) (109) (128) (144)
Key risks
Pre-tax profit 90 12 112 258 611
i. Softer global demand for commodities; Taxation (25) (7) (34) (90) (214)
ii. Global macro uncertainties and political Reported net profit 58 (21) 56 96 183
instability; Recurring net profit 58 (21) 56 96 183
iii. Disruptions in operating activities impacting
output levels
Cas h flow (US Dm) Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24F Dec-25F Dec-26F
Change in working capital (98) (10) (34) (10) (67)
Company Profile
Cash flow from operations 86 126 240 378 560
Merdeka Copper Gold is a holding company with Capex (968) (643) (775) (575) (375)
operating subsidiaries engaging in mining business Cash flow from investing activities (990) (665) (796) (596) (396)
activities, encompassing the exploration and future
Cash flow from financing activities 1,169 (2) 14 14 14
production of gold, silver, copper and other related
Cash at beginning of period 185 444 519 489 585
minerals, and mining services.
Net change in cash 265 (541) (542) (205) 178
Ending balance cash 444 502 489 585 871
Margins (%)
Gross 8% 11% 5% 19% 9%
EBIT 1% 10% 3% 13% 6%
NPM -4% 4% 1% 7% -1%
Operational details
Gold production (oz) 17,964 44,882 29,507 -34% 64% 125,133 138,666 11%
Gold sales volume (oz) 20,961 49,162 31,165 -37% 49% 134,411 129,867 -3%
Gold ASP (USD/oz) 1,711 1,946 1,931 -1% 13% 1,803 1,939 8%
Gold AISC (USD/oz) 1,200 1,147 1,487 30% 24% 1,131 1,212 7%
Copper production (tonnes) 3,759 2,128 3,397 60% -10% 19,551 12,706 -35%
Copper sales volume (tonnes) 5,085 3,136 2,206 -30% -57% 20,337 13,218 -35%
Copper ASP (USD/tonne) 7,326 8,444 8,578 2% 17% 8,822 8,578 -3%
Copper AISC (USD/tonne) 7,143 16,050 11,861 -26% 66% 7,430 11,861 60%
Nickel matte production (tonnes) - 13,210 12,685 -4% N/A - 30,333 N/A
Nickel matte sales volume (tonnes) - 13,394 11,699 -13% N/A - 28,129 N/A
Nickel matte ASP (USD/tonne) - 16,364 15,592 -5% N/A - 15,592 N/A
Nickel matte AISC (USD/tonne) - 15,154 14,199 -6% N/A - 14,809 N/A
Source: Company data, RHB
Margins
Gross margin 12% 16% 20% 14% 16% 25%
Operating margin 10% 14% 19% 12% 14% 25%
EBITDA 18% 21% 24% 21% 23% 31%
Net margin 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6%
Gold ASP (USD/oz) 2,230 2,252 2,275 2,025 2,045 2,055 10.1% 10.1% 10.7%
Copper ASP (USD/tonne) 8,835 8,835 8,924 8,048 8,450 8,475 9.8% 4.6% 5.3%
NPI ASP (USD/tonne) 12,580 13,209 13,473 15,351 15,812 15,950 -18.1% -16.5% -15.5%
Nickel matte ASP (USD/tonne) 14,060 14,763 15,058 17,105 17,619 18,147 -17.8% -16.2% -17.0%
Gold production (oz) 122,638 128,288 218,861 122,638 128,288 218,861 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Copper production (tonne) 15,309 16,075 16,878 15,309 16,075 16,878 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NPI production (tonne) 90,000 92,000 92,000 88,000 88,000 88,000 2.3% 4.5% 4.5%
Nickel Matte production (tonne) 50,000 50,000 55,000 48,000 50,000 50,000 4.2% 0.0% 10.0%
Source: Company data, RHB
Figure 3: TP calculation
DCF calculation (in USDm) 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F
EBIT 234 399 768 1,025 1,081 1,222 1,284 1,319 1,408 1,454 1,482
EBIT (1-t) 107 183 353 471 496 561 590 606 646 668 680
Depreciation & amortisation 182 207 217 218 215 213 210 208 206 204 203
Changes in working capital -34 -10 -67 49 38 19 40 45 40 46 47
Capex -775 -575 -375 -225 -175 -175 -175 -175 -175 -175 -175
Free cash flow -519 -195 128 513 574 618 665 684 718 743 755
Discounted FCF -519 -179 108 396 407 401 396 374 360 342 319
Terminal Value 5,882
Terminal growth 3%
WACC 9%
Total discounted firm value 8,286
24F Net debt 1,687
24F Minority Interest 1,837
Equity value (USDm) 4,762
Equity value (IDRbn) 74,806
Issued shares (bn) 24.5
Equity value per share 3,100
Peer multiple
Enterprise value (USDm) - current 5,218
24F EBITDA (USDm) 416
EV/EBITDA (rolling-forward) 13
Fair value (IDR/share) 3,400
3.5
3.0
2.0
1.5
Source: RHB
Recommendation Chart
Date Rec ommendation Target Pric e Pric e
Price Close
2024-03-25 Buy 3,600 2,340
6,190 Recommendations & Target Price 2024-02-05 Buy 2,900 2,480
na
6,740
7,220
1,450
1,380
1,575
2,050
2,000
3,000
2,750
3,140
4,320
4,030
5,600 5,300
5,100
3,800
3,200
2,900
2,850
7
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Analyst Company
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