Dr.

Le Anh Tuan

HOMEWORK (SESSION 5)

S5.1
At a big university, 80% of the students like accounting. A professor to the class asks randomly
each of 4 students, whether they like accounting.
(a) Calculate the probabilities of obtaining an answer yes from 0,1,2,3,4 of the students.
X is a random variable -> #of students answering ‘yes’
X ~ Bo(4,0.8)
P=(X=0)=C(0,4) x (0.8)^0 x (0.2)^4
P=(X=1)=C(1,4) x (0.8)^1 x (0.2)^3
P=(X=2=C(2,4) x (0.8)^2 x (0.2)^2
P=(X=3)=C(3,4) x (0.8)^3 x (0.2)^1
P=(X=4)=C(4,4) x (0.8)^4 x (0.2)^0
(b) Calculate the mean and SD of the distribution
Mean = np = 4 x 0.8 = 3.2
SD = √ np(1− p) = √ 4∗0.8 (1−0.8)
(c) Find the probability that the professor obtains the answer yes from at least 2 students:
(i) when the number of students questioned remains at 4
P(x>=2) = P(x=2) + P(x=3) + P(x=4) =
(ii) when the number of students questioned is increased to 8.
X ~ Bo(8, 0.8)

P(X>=2) = 1-P(X=0)-P(X-1) = 1 – (C0,8).(0.8)^0.(0.2)^8-C(1,8).(0.8)^1(0.2)^7

S5.2
A clothing store has determined that 30% of the people who enter the store will make a purchase.
Eight people enter the store during a one-hour period. Find the probability that
(a) exactly four people will make a purchase
P(X=4) = C(4,8).(0.3)^4.(0.7)^4
(b) at least one person will make a purchase
P(X>=1) = 1-P(X=0) = 1 – C(0,8).(0.3)^0.(0.7)^8
(c) find the mean and SD of distribution
Mean = np = 8*0.3 = 2.4
SD = √ np(1− p) = √ 8∗0.3 (1−0. 3)

S5.3
The proportion of people with blood groups O, A, B and AB in a particular population are in the
ratio 48:35:12:5, respectively. Determine the probability that a random sample of 20 people from
the population contains:
(a) Exactly 10 with blood O
X is a random variable => # of people with blood O
X ~ Bo(20,0.48)
P(x=10) = C(10,20).(0.48)^10.(0.52)^10
 (b) At most 2 with blood AB
Y is a random variable => #of people with blood AB
P(blood AB) = 5/100 = 0.05
Y ~ Bo(20, 0.05)
P(Y=0) + P(Y=1) + P(Y=2) = C(0,20).(0.05)^0.(0.95)^20 + C(1,20).(0.05)^1.(0.95)^19+
C(2,20).(0.05)^2.(0.95)^18

Poisson approximation:
n=20,p=5% => Y~P(n*p=20*0.05) => Y~P(1)
0 −1 1 −1 2 −1
1 .e 1 .e 1 .e
P(Y=0) + P(Y=1) + P(Y=2) = = 0! + 1! + 2!
(c) At least 8 with blood A
X is a random variable => # of people with blood A
P(blood A) = 35/100 = 0.35
P(X>=8) = 1-P(X<8) = 1-P(X-0)-p(x=1)-…-P(x=7) => using binomial tables

S5.4
A factory produces snacks and packs them in boxes of 200. If the probability that a snack is
substandard is 0.006, find the probability that a box selected at random contains at most two
snacks which are substandard.
X is a random variable => # of snacks which are substandard
X~Bo(200,0.006)
P(X<=2) = P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)
Because n=200>20, p=0.006<5% =>use poisson approximation X~P(200*0.006=1.2)
0 −1.2 1 −1.2 2 −1.2
1.2 . e 1.2 . e 1.2 . e
P(X<=2)= + +
0! 1! 2!

S5.5
A shop sells a particular make of video recorder.
(a) Assuming that the weekly demand for the video recorder is a Poisson variable with mean
3, find the probability that the shop sells
(i) at least 3 in a week
X is a random variable => demand for video recorder per week
X~P(3)
0 −3 1 −3 2 −3
3 .e 3 .e 3 .e
P(X>=3)=1-P(X=0)-P(X=1)-P(X=2)=1- - -
0! 2! 2!
(ii) at most 7 in a week
(iii) more than 20 in a month (4 weeks).
Y is a random variable => demand for video recorder per month
Y~P(12), λ=3 per week=¿ λ=3∗4=12 per month
P(Y>20)=1-P(Y<=20), using poisson table
(b) Find the minimum number that should be in stock at the beginning of a month so that the
shop can be at least 95% sure of being able to meet the demands during the month.
P(X=0)+P(X=1)+…+P(X=n) ≥ 95%
If X=17, P(X=0)+P(X=1)+…+P(X=17) = 93.7%
If X=18, P(X=0)+P(X=1)+…+P(X=18) = 96.2% > 95% => minimum stock is 18
Dr. Le Anh Tuan

S5.6 (hypergeometric distribution)

In the manufacture of car tires, a particular production process is known to yield 10 tires with
defective walls in every batch of 100 tires produced. From a production batch of 100 tires, a
sample of 4 is selected for testing to destruction. Find:
Get 1 defective tire.
(a) the probability that the sample contains 1 defective tire
population size = 100
# of defective tire in population = 10
Sample size = 4
C ( 1 ,10 ) . C (3 , 90)
P(X=1) =
C (4,100)
(b) the probability that the sample contains at most 2 defective tires
C ( 0 , 10 ) .C (4 , 90) C ( 1 ,10 ) . C (3 , 90)
P(X>=2) = P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2) = + +
C (4,100) C (4,100)
C ( 2 ,10 ) . C (2 ,90)
C (4,100)
(c) the expectation of the number of defectives in samples of size 4
defective ratio = 10/100
 expectation of the number of defectives = 4*10% = 0.4