A Case Study: Probability and Statistics

for GDP of India

Dhruv Sharma
Computer Science Engineering
Chandigarh University
Gharuan, India
dhruvsharma.chd.2004@gmail.com
Gobind
Computer Science Engineering
Chandigarh University
Gharuan, India
gobind12222@gmail.com
Jai Kumar
Computer Science Engineering
Chandigarh University
Gharuan, India
jaikumarvanjare2022@gmail.com

Abstract—India’s economic environment, as reflected in its gross domestic product (GDP), presents a complex story
influenced by many factors. This comprehensive case study uses relevant advanced statistical analysis techniques to
dissect the nuances of India’s GDP growth trajectory from 2010 to 2024. Data from reputable sources have been
carefully prepared such as government reports and international organizations, the complex structure of the study,
networks, and potential issues embedded in India’s economic growth. Using rigorous analytical methods, the findings
provide invaluable insights into India’s economic dynamics, and serve as a cornerstone for evidence-based policy
making, strategic investment decisions has worked, and further academic research in economic analysis.
Keywords—Gross Domestic Product, Growth Techniques, Economic Analysis, India’s GDP, Statistical Analysis

I. INTRODUCTION
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serves as a foundational metric in assessing the economic health and performance of
nations worldwide. As one of the fastest-growing economies globally, India's GDP trajectory has garnered significant attention
from economists, policymakers, and investors alike. With its vast population, diverse economic landscape, and strategic
geopolitical positioning, India's economic growth carries implications that extend far beyond its borders. This case study aims
to delve into the probability and statistics surrounding India's GDP growth, offering a comprehensive analysis of historical
trends, sectoral contributions, influencing factors, and future outlook. By examining the statistical nuances of India's GDP
growth, we seek to unravel the complexities underlying its economic evolution and provide valuable insights for stakeholders
navigating India's dynamic economic landscape. Throughout this study, we will utilize robust data sources from authoritative
institutions such as the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Central Statistics Office, and Reserve Bank of
India. By leveraging empirical evidence and statistical methodologies, we endeavor to paint a detailed picture of India's GDP
growth dynamics, facilitating a deeper understanding of its economic trajectory and informing strategic decision-making
processes. Against the backdrop of India's economic journey, characterized by phases of reform, liberalization, and
transformation, this case study seeks to shed light on the probabilistic nature of GDP growth, offering actionable insights for
policymakers, investors, and observers vested in India's economic prosperity. Through rigorous analysis and interpretation of
the data at hand, we aim to unravel the multifaceted story of India's GDP growth, providing a foundation for informed discourse
and strategic planning in the realm of economic policy and development.

II. LITERATURE REVIEW

The research on India's economy provides a detailed picture of its growth and the factors behind it. Experts have closely studied
the nation's GDP expansion and the various elements influencing its economic path. The available literature offers insightful
policy discussions and empirical analyses that shed light on the complex dynamics driving India's development.
A. State-Led Development and Import Substitution Policies:
During the early post-independence years (1950s-1980s), India pursued a strategy of state-led development and import
substitution. Scholars such as Jagdish Bhagwati and T.N. Srinivasan have extensively examined this period, highlighting the
challenges of import substitution strategies and the imperative for market-oriented reforms. Bhagwati's work underscores the
limitations of protectionist policies and advocates for liberalization to stimulate growth. Similarly, Srinivasan's research
emphasizes the role of institutional factors in shaping India's economic performance, advocating for reforms to unlock growth
potential.
B. Liberalization Reforms and Economic Transformation:
The seminal moment in India's economic history came in 1991 with the initiation of liberalization reforms in response to a
balance of payments crisis. Led by then-Finance Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, these reforms ushered in a new era of economic
liberalization, privatization, and globalization. Scholars like Arvind Panagariya and Raghuram Rajan have provided valuable
insights into the impact of liberalization on India's economic landscape. Panagariya's research emphasizes the role of trade
liberalization in promoting export-led growth and enhancing competitiveness, while Rajan's work highlights the importance of
financial sector reforms in strengthening India's banking system and fostering investment.
C. In-depth Exploration:
Scholarly inquiry into India's economic landscape encompasses an exploration of sectoral dynamics, the efficacy of policy
interventions, and the transformative impact of globalization, all contributing to the trajectory of GDP growth. Research by
luminaries like Amartya Sen and Jean Drèze emphasizes the pivotal role of human capital, education, and healthcare in fostering
inclusive growth, while economists affiliated with institutions like the World Bank, including Kaushik Basu and Justin Yifu
Lin, underscore the importance of sustaining growth momentum through strategic policy measures. Additionally, scholars like
Jagdish Bhagwati and T.N. Srinivasan delve into the ramifications of globalization on GDP growth and industrial
competitiveness, acknowledging both opportunities and challenges inherent in economic interdependence. In conclusion, the
collective insights from scholarly research, policy discourse, and empirical analysis offer a nuanced understanding of the
multifaceted factors underpinning India's GDP growth, guiding strategic decision-making towards sustainable development and
economic prosperity.

III. DATA COLLECTION

In this section, we outline the systematic methodology employed to gather GDP data for India and delineate the diverse sources
from which the data was extracted. A meticulous approach to data collection is fundamental to guarantee the accuracy and
reliability of the analysis, particularly when dealing with economic indicators like GDP.

A. Methodological Approach:
Our data collection strategy for this case study integrated both primary and secondary sources, aiming to compile a
comprehensive and credible dataset for India's GDP. The methodology adopted encompasses the following steps:

• Primary Data Sources: The Central Statistics Office (CSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
(MoSPI) emerged as the cornerstone for procuring primary GDP data for India. The CSO conducts exhaustive surveys and
compiles meticulous reports on various economic indicators, ensuring the reliability and authenticity of the data. Through
direct engagement with CSO reports and datasets, we ensured the highest standards of accuracy and completeness in our
analysis.
• Secondary Data Sources: To enrich and corroborate our dataset, we relied on data from esteemed international
organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. These organizations maintain extensive
databases housing global economic indicators, offering invaluable insights for cross-validation and comparative analysis.
By cross-referencing data from multiple international sources, we enhanced the robustness and credibility of our findings,
enabling a more comprehensive understanding of India's economic landscape.
• Publicly Available Databases: Additionally, publicly accessible repositories such as the World Development Indicators
(WDI) from the World Bank were consulted to augment our GDP data. These databases serve as centralized platforms,
aggregating data from diverse sources and facilitating a holistic understanding of economic trends. Leveraging the vast
resources available in these databases, we were able to conduct in-depth analyses, exploring various dimensions of India's
GDP growth trajectory and its implications for economic development.

B. Sources Utilized:
The GDP data for India utilized in this study were sourced from reputable and authoritative institutions, including:

• Central Statistics Office (CSO), India: Serving as the primary source of GDP data, the CSO provided detailed and granular
insights into India's economic landscape. Direct access to CSO data ensured the highest standards of accuracy and
authenticity in our analysis, enabling us to capture the nuances of India's economic performance with precision.
• International Monetary Fund (IMF): The IMF's extensive databases containing GDP data for countries worldwide,
including India, served as valuable references for validation and cross-referencing. These datasets are meticulously
curated, offering comprehensive coverage of global economic trends. By corroborating our findings with data from the
IMF, we strengthened the robustness and reliability of our analysis, enhancing the credibility of our conclusions.
• World Bank: Leveraging the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) database enriched our analysis with a
broad spectrum of economic indicators, including GDP, for countries across the globe. Incorporating data from such
reputable sources facilitated robust cross-validation and enhanced the credibility of our findings.

C. Interpretation of Data:
The GDP data for India from 2010 to 2024, as depicted in the table below, encapsulates nominal GDP figures, GDP per capita,
and GDP growth rates for each respective year. These data points serve as pivotal indicators of India's economic performance
and growth trajectory over the specified period, enabling comprehensive statistical analysis and insightful interpretation. By
analyzing trends in GDP growth, we can discern patterns, identify key drivers of economic expansion, and assess the impact of
policy interventions and external factors on India's economy.

Financial Year GDP (Nominal) GDP Per Capital (Nominal) GDP Growth
2024 (till Q3) $4,112.00B $2,845 7.60%
2023 $3,737.00B $2,610 7.20%
2022 $3,385.09B $2,389 7.00%
2021 $3,150.31B $2,238 9.05%
2020 $2,671.60B $1,913 -5.83%
2019 $2,835.61B $2,050 3.87%
2018 $2,702.93B $1,974 6.45%
2017 $2,651.47B $1,958 6.80%
2016 $2,294.80B $1,714 8.26%
2015 $2,103.59B $1,590 8.00%
2014 $2,039.13B $1,560 7.41%
2013 $1,856.72B $1,438 6.39%
2012 $1,827.64B $1,434 5.46%
2011 $1,823.05B $1,450 5.24%
2010 $1,675.62B $1,351 8.50%
Table 1: GDP for India (2010-2024)

By meticulously selecting and validating data from these authoritative sources, we ensured the integrity and credibility of our
analysis of India's GDP dynamics. The inclusion of data from multiple reputable sources facilitated robust cross-validation,
thereby enhancing the reliability and validity of our findings and conclusions. Through our comprehensive data collection and
analysis, we aim to provide valuable insights into India's economic landscape, informing policy decisions, guiding investment
strategies, and fostering further research in the field of economic development.

IV. DATA ANALYSIS

In this section, we will perform a comprehensive data analysis of India's GDP from 2010 to 2024, focusing on descriptive
statistics, growth trends, and statistical measures such as mean, median, mode, moments, skewness, and kurtosis.
A. Descriptive Statistics for GDP:
1. Mean: The mean GDP over the given period can be calculated by summing up all the GDP values and dividing by the total
number of observations (years).

∑ 𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠

38866.5
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 =
15

𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = $ 2591.1 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛

2. Median: The median GDP represents the middle value when the GDP values are arranged in ascending order. If there's an
odd number of observations, the median is the middle value. If there's an even number of observations, it's the average of
the two middle values.
Arranging the GDP values in ascending order: $1,675.62B, $1,823.05B, $1,827.64B, $1,856.72B, $2,039.13B,
$2,103.59B, $2,294.80B, $2,651.47B, $2,671.60B, $2,702.93B, $2,835.61B, $3,150.31B, $3,385.09B, $3,737.00B,
$4,112.00B.
There are odd number of observations, so the median is the middle value of the arranged series which is: $2,651.47B
3. Mode: The mode represents the GDP value that appears most frequently in the dataset. It can be multiple values or none if
all values are distinct. In this case, all values are unique, so there is no mode.

4. Skewness: Skewness measures the asymmetry of the distribution of GDP values. Positive skewness indicates that the
distribution has a longer right tail, while negative skewness indicates a longer left tail. We need to calculate the sample
mean (𝑥̅ ) and the sample standard deviation (𝑠).

∑𝑛𝑖=0 𝑥𝑖
𝑥̅ = = 2591.1 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑛

∑𝑛𝑖=0(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥)2
𝑠=√ = $ 722.59 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑛−1

𝑛
𝑛 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥 3
𝑆𝑘𝑒𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 = ∑( )
(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) 𝑠
𝑖=0

𝑆𝑘𝑒𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 = 0.59

5. Kurtosis: Kurtosis measures the peakiness or flatness of the distribution of GDP values compared to a normal distribution.
High kurtosis indicates a sharp peak (leptokurtic), while low kurtosis indicates a flat peak (platykurtic).

𝑛
𝑛(𝑛 + 1) 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥 4 3(𝑛 − 1)2
𝐾𝑢𝑟𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑠 = ∑( ) −
(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2)(𝑛 − 3) 𝑠 (𝑛 − 2)(𝑛 − 3)
𝑖=0

𝐾𝑢𝑟𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑠 = −0.7

B. Descriptive Statistics for GDP:

1. Mean: The mean GDP per capita over the given period can be calculated by summing up all the GDP per capita values
and dividing by the total number of observations (years).

∑ 𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠

28513.95
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 =
15

𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = $ 1900.93 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛

2. Median: The median GDP per capita represents the middle value when the GDP per capita values are arranged in ascending
order. If there's an odd number of observations, the median is the middle value. If there's an even number of observations,
it's the average of the two middle values.
 Arranging the GDP per capita values in ascending order: $1351, $1434, $1438, $1450, $1560, $1590, $1714, $1913, $1974,
$2050, $2238, $2389, $2610, $2845, $2915.

There are odd number of observations, so the median is the middle value of the arranged series which is: $1913.

3. Mode: The mode represents the GDP per capita value that appears most frequently in the dataset. It can be multiple values
or none if all values are distinct. In this case, all values are unique, so there is no mode.

4. Skewness: Skewness measures the asymmetry of the distribution of GDP per capita values. Positive skewness indicates
that the distribution has a longer right tail, while negative skewness indicates a longer left tail. We need to calculate the
sample mean (𝑥̅ ) and the sample standard deviation (𝑠).

∑𝑛𝑖=0 𝑥𝑖
𝑥̅ = = 1900.93 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑛

∑𝑛𝑖=0(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥)2
𝑠=√ = $ 444.43 𝐵𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑛−1

𝑛
𝑛 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥 3
𝑆𝑘𝑒𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 = ∑( )
(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) 𝑠
𝑖=0

𝑆𝑘𝑒𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 = 0.62

5. Kurtosis: Kurtosis measures the peakiness or flatness of the distribution of GDP per capita values compared to a normal
distribution. High kurtosis indicates a sharp peak (leptokurtic), while low kurtosis indicates a flat peak (platykurtic).

𝑛
𝑛(𝑛 + 1) 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥 4 3(𝑛 − 1)2
𝐾𝑢𝑟𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑠 = ∑( ) −
(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2)(𝑛 − 3) 𝑠 (𝑛 − 2)(𝑛 − 3)
𝑖=0

𝐾𝑢𝑟𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑠 = −0.66

C. Descriptive Statistics for GDP Growth:

1. The mean GDP growth over the given period can be calculated by summing up all the GDP growth values and dividing by
the total number of observations (years).

∑ 𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠

91.35
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 =
15
 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 = 6.09 %

2. Median: The median GDP growth represents the middle value when the GDP growth values are arranged in ascending
order. If there's an odd number of observations, the median is the middle value. If there's an even number of observations,
it's the average of the two middle values.
Arranging the GDP growth values in ascending order: -5.83%, 3.87%, 5.24%, 5.46%, 6.39%, 6.45%, 6.80%, 7.00%,
7.20%, 7.41%, 7.60%, 8.00%, 8.26%, 8.50%, 9.05%.
There are odd number of observations, so the median is the middle value of the arranged series which is: 6.80%.

3. Mode: The mode represents the GDP growth value that appears most frequently in the dataset. It can be multiple values or
none if all values are distinct. In this case, all values are unique, so there is no mode.

4. Skewness: Skewness measures the asymmetry of the distribution of GDP growth values. Positive skewness indicates that
the distribution has a longer right tail, while negative skewness indicates a longer left tail. We need to calculate the sample
mean (𝑥̅ ) and the sample standard deviation (𝑠).

∑𝑛𝑖=0 𝑥𝑖
𝑥̅ = = 6.09 %
𝑛

∑𝑛𝑖=0(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥)2
𝑠=√ = 3.44 %
𝑛−1

𝑛
𝑛 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥 3
𝑆𝑘𝑒𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 = ∑( )
(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) 𝑠
𝑖=0

𝑆𝑘𝑒𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑠𝑠 = −2.68

5. Kurtosis: Kurtosis measures the peakiness or flatness of the distribution of GDP growth values compared to a normal
distribution. High kurtosis indicates a sharp peak (leptokurtic), while low kurtosis indicates a flat peak (platykurtic).

𝑛
𝑛(𝑛 + 1) 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥 4 3(𝑛 − 1)2
𝐾𝑢𝑟𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑠 = ∑( ) −
(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2)(𝑛 − 3) 𝑠 (𝑛 − 2)(𝑛 − 3)
𝑖=0

𝐾𝑢𝑟𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑠 = 6.67

V. CONCLUSION
In summary, the examination of India's GDP growth spanning from 2010 to 2024 provides a comprehensive understanding of
the nation's economic trajectory. Through meticulous statistical analysis, including measures like descriptive statistics,
skewness, and kurtosis, we have unveiled the nuances and trends within India's economic performance. Despite encountering
significant challenges such as global economic downturns and the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, India
has exhibited resilience and adaptability in its growth patterns. These insights underscore the critical importance of evidence-
driven policymaking and strategic decision-making in navigating the complexities of India's economy effectively. Looking
ahead, further research into regional disparities, sectoral contributions, and the effects of policy reforms will be essential for
fostering sustainable development and inclusive growth. By leveraging empirical evidence and advanced analytical
methodologies, stakeholders can chart a course towards a more resilient and prosperous economic future for India.