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    Alfred Rytenkovich
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    ОстойчивостьНаВолненииНогид

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    ОстойчивостьНаВолненииНогид

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    8 views123 pages

    ОстойчивостьНаВолненииНогид

    Uploaded by

    Alfred Rytenkovich
    ОстойчивостьНаВолненииНогид

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 123
    J. M. HOTHAL OCTOMYHBOCTb CYAHA M ETO: MlOBEAEHHE HA “B3BOJIHOBAHHOM MOPE NPOEKTHMPOBAHHE MOPCHKHX CYAOB UactTb BTopar Alonyineno Musucmepcmeos atcueeo 4 cpednezo eneyuaabnozo cceP 8 Kavecmee Yuchxo2d nocebux dan cmydenmos _ sopatsecmpoutneabhox 8y306 BHBRNOTEHA = AEE). Mug GaeCepOMT, BACTHTVM +5 Y 34 Alay HSTLATEJIBCTBO + CVTOCTPOEHHE « - JIEHUBFPAL 1967 YK 629.12 ; 532 : 5.073 (075.8) 3—18—-5 5—6T B kaure, MpeacTaaAmomen COGo nposcaKenHe nepyokt 4aCTH KYpCa MPOCKTHPOBRARHA CyNoB, u3QaHnore B 1964 r., BOMPOCh OCTOHYHBOCTH H MOPeXOANOCTH CynHa paceMaTpH- BawWTCH B APaRTHYeCKOM ACNeKTe: Tak, Kak OHM BeTaIOT MepeA NPOCKTHPOBIAKOM TPH BGOpe SlemenToR mpoexTapyemoro cyana. Hapaay ¢ TeopHel Bompoca mpuBogaTca pesyALTAaTH SRCMEPHMCHT@IBHUX HCCHeLOBAMHA BAHAHHAR paaHanbyx thakTopos 1a Nobeflenue cyAka B yCAopMRx peryaapHoro 14 HeperyspHoro Boma. BesencTare MpMKaRWOTO Xapakrepa paGorii wexogHHe Do1oKesws ne ObJacTH TeopHy KopaGls, Teopnn BeporTao- ctefi, cneKTpadbholt TeOpHH BOTHeHMA KH crarucTHuecKoi TeOPAH KAYKH, Ha KOTOPHX CCHORAHO HATOKeHKe, NPHROAATCA walle Beero Gey BKHIBODOR. Kasra sBagetca yuedapM mocodvem mA crynektos KopaGlecTpOH Te bHEIX ByY3OB H MOKeT SHTb HCTONs0RaHA Npk paspaGorke KyPCOBhIx H AWIVIOMALIX TIpoeKTOB. Oua MOMeET OKASATHCA MOMeSHOM HEKeKepaM-KopabAecrpouTetam, pPaGora KOTOPHA CBN3aHA ¢ NpoekKTHPOBAHHey cy AOR. OT ABTOPA peaaraeMad BHMMAHHIO UnTaTesed KHHTa Npe_cTannger coboh npofoaKeune UcpBO 4ACTH Kypca NpOeKTHPOBAHUA CYOB, OnyOnH- xopaHKod B 1964 r. TlogoGHo nepBoli yacTH Kypca, NOCBALIeHROR Me- TOAAM MPOCKTAPOBaHHA CYAOB, 3Ta KHHCa HalWcada Ha OCHOBE COOT- BETCTBYI0IUMX Tab yueOHHKA, H3saHHOTO B 1955 r. B kuure, HOCHWeA RPUKMaluo XapaxTep, OcHOBHOe BHHMaHHe yaeneno Bonpocy oO BEIGope a7emMeHTOB NPOeCKTHPYeMOTO CyAHa C y4e- TOM TpeGoBaHH, Pe LbABIACMBIX K OCTOHUMBOCTH H MOpeXOLuOcTH MopcKuXx cy2oB. Merognueckuit annapat, pasBATbii B neppoi yacTH KYPCa, MO3s01MeT HCHOABSOBaTH B HAAMBHBIX CTaiAX paspaGorKH nupoekta cpegenva of ecToHuupoctH nh MOpexO,HOCTH, IpHBezeRHBIe B aTOH KHuTe. Bompockl HenOTonasemoctn, BOOpa HagBo_HCrO Gopta W XOAKOCTH ABTOP [1peLNoMaraer W3AOWKHTh B TOM Me acieKTC, “To 4 BOMPOCh, PACCMOTPCHHble B HACTOMIIeH KHHTe, BTPeTheh YacTH Kypca NPOKTHPOBAHHA CYAOB. Tlockonbxy TepMHH «MOpexo_HOcTh» Ae nonyyHt o6sero npu- 3HaHMA, YMCCTIHO OTMETHTh, STO B COOTBETCTBHH ¢ MpelmoKenueM, colepKalluMcd B CTaTbe aBTopa [19556], 10 MopexoguocTbIo B Kuure NOWHMAaeTCA KOMIMIEKC CBOHCTB, XapAaKTePHSYIOWHX MOBeqenve Cyana Ha B3BOWHOBAHHOM Mope. OTH CBOMCTBa ONPeAeIMOTCA TOKAsATELAMK KaUKH CYMHa, BEAMUHHOH TMorepH CKOpOCTH OT AecTBHA BOAR BeCTpa, COOTHOWUCHHEM Me2AY MOMHOCThIO MeXaWH3MOB, KOTOpylO yAaeTCd PaSBUTb Ha BIBOAHOBANHOM MOPe, H HOPMA/bHOH MOMLHOCTHIO MCX@HH3MOB, BEPONTHOCTLIO 3aHBaHHA OTKPLITHIX Naay6 nx OpLisro- oOpaz0BaHHs, HHTEHCHBHOCTBIo rHADOAMHAMHYeCKHX yLapos (cleMHH- Ta) Ha B3BOAHOBAHHOM MOpe, CTeneHbIO YCTOHUMBOCTH Ha KYPCe B STHX YCIOBHAX HW T. O. He caeyyer CMCLURBAaTh NOHATHS MOPEXOTHOCTh H MopexogHble Kavectsa. [logq mMopexogHbIMH KavecTBaMH TOHHMaIOT BEC KOMIAEKC CBOHCTB CYMHa, H3y4aeMbIX B Teopan KopaGaA (na- BYYECTh, OCTOMUHBOCTH, HENOTOMIAeMOCTb, XOAKOCTh U m1p.). Kuura nwamvcana B MpeznosoxKenHu, 4TO 4YATaTeb, NpUcTynarw- WH K w3yYeHH!O TeOpHH TpoeKTHpOBanHA CYAOB, 3HaeT CTATHKY KopaOila, YACHRE O XOZKOCTH CyAna H YaCTHIHO Teopulo KawKu, Kak 3TO TpexycMOTpeno yueOuLIM {iaHoM A mporpamMaMu Kopa6zectpon- TCNbHBIX MHCTHTYTOB, Dro nosporHao usGemath WyONupoBAHHA na- 3BaHHBIX KYPCOB, OMHAKO OKaganoch HeOOXOAHMBIM JOTIOHRTeADHO OTpasHTh B KHUPe HEKOTOPLIe pesyAbTATHI, NOMYYEHHbIe Ha MpoTAxKe- 1 3 Han nocaeqrnx 10—15 net 8 craTacruyecKol Teopun KaaKH HB CUeX- TPanbHbix HCCMEAOBAKHAX MOPCKOTO BOAHeHUS. Sra ceegenuA npit- REQCHB B KHHTe Ges BLIBOMOB, HapALy ¢ KPATKAMH CBEReEHHANM H3 TeOPHH BEPONTHOCTeH, HEOOXORHMBIME Jia NOHHMaHHA nocwesyiouero H3LO2XKEHU S. Henecoo6pasuocts paccmoTpenna B K¥pce HPOPKTHDOBAHHA CYAOB STAX BONPOCOB MOMHO OOOCHOBATh CAEAYIOUIMMH cooGpaxKeHnsMu. B nactosilec spems up peGope saementop npoekTupyemoro cygua MOPCXOAROCTE CONOCTABIACMEIX BAPHANTOR CYAHa OLeXHBaIOT, Lpu- HHMad BO BHHMA@HHe TOMbKO UX XOMOBbIE KAYECTBA Ha BSBCAHOBANHOM Mope. Henaerea sro ycnosuo, nyTeM BReMeHUT B pacueTEl ocpequen- BEIX KOSPDHIHERTOB, KOTOpEIe He YUNTEIBAIOT MocTaTOUNO HH OCObeH- HOCTeH OTACIBHEIX BapHAHTOB CyAHa, HH TH_poMeTeopomorMuecKHx YCAOBHH, B KOTOpbIX OHO GymeT SKCILyaTHpoBaTEeN. Henoabsya B pavHux cTaquax mpoeKTuposanna CTaTHCTHYeCKyIO TeOPHIO KaYKH HM P€3YJIbTATEI SKCIEPAMeHTANDHLIX -UCCeHOBAKKA KAMKH, MOMHO MOAYYHTS HaTAqHOe H ROCTATCYHO TOUNGe Mpencras- TENE O TIOBELEHUH CONGCTAaBAREMBIX CYHOB Ha BIBOAHOBANHOM Mope: O HX XOAKOCTH, aMIMIMTYaxX KaKH, 3aMHBaCMOCTH H CJIeEMHHTe Kak HPH H3MeHMOWMIMXCA YCHOBHAX SKCIYaTaWHH, TaK HB CpeqHeM 3a BECh CPOK cayaGhl cyqua. Tem caMbIM OTKPBIBAeTCA BOSMOMHOCTE OGocHOBaHHO YqHTHIBATR ocobeHHOCTH OTAeEbHLIX BapHaHTOR cyqHa MPH ONPeAQIeHHH. UX IKOMOMMUECKMX OKagaTenef H BLIGOpe HaH- Goaee wenecooSpasnoro pemenua. Kuara npeauasuavena cayxarh yaeOusim nocobvem AA CTyAeH- TOR KopaGnectpontenbunix uncTutyTos. Tpaxtaueckue Ravan, NPUBEACHHBIG B KHHTC, B YACTHOCTH CTaTHcTHuecKHe JaHHAe 0 BeTpe H MOPCKOM BOAHEHHH, He ABIAACL yueGHHIM MaTepHAIOM, TO3BOHI0T HCHOMbSOBATE KEHTY B KaNeCTBe nocoOHA pH paspadorke cryxeHTaMu KYPCOBBIX H AHMAOMHBIX NipoexTos, ABTop HafeeTCs, TO KHMTa Ba HTe- per Take HHKcHepos, paboraioulMx B O6ZacTH npoeKTHpOBaHHa Tlompsyacs catyuaem, aprop npunocut GuaroqapHocTh 34 WeHHEIE Samevanua A.B, Bponnuxosy, mpocmorpesmemy pyKonuch KHUTE C. H. Baazosewencrony, B. B. Jiyecsckomy u B. B. Cemenosy-Tan- illancKomy, NpocmorpeBnivM HEKOTOpbIC PasIeAH PYROMHCH, H BCeM' JUUaM, MPHHABIUAM yuacTHe B OGCyYaIeHHM pyKONcH Ha 3aceqanun Kaeaph! nmpoexTapobanus cynoB Jlenuurpagzexoro opgena Jlexuna Kopa6aectpouterbuoro HNcTuTyTa. OBOSHAYEHHA f B— wupuna cyana. € Cop — Pas0baR ¥ OpSHTaAbHad CKOpocTh BOWIRDT. Cp; Cm — Sespaamepnme KosbPuNWeEHT ToTepeykol aspoAuHaMH4uecKod CHILE H MOLHOCTH. : ' ¢ — GespaamepHa Kosdubeudent monepesnof rHapoaHNaMHyeckod CHILL, D — BoxousmenlenHe cyqna .u Wecnepeua cayualinnix BeAHYHH tbynenii. Dg; Dé — Anchepcua yraop HW yrazoBbIx ckepocre GoptoBOl KagKH. De: Dw — WMchepcna OTHOCHTeILHEX BepTHKAIbHHX NepeMeijenui cyqua H OpupawesHi MonjHoctu. - & ~— 3ueprua Bown H cpequui KBagpaT aMNauTyA KOneGaTedbHOra npomecca. . F, Fmax —- OPAHHaTa H MaKCHMatbHas OpyMHata GeapasMepHoro CHeKTpa BOJIHEHHA. , Fr — weno @pyza. f — pircota HayBogHOro Gopta. fa — Hagpognarit GopT B KakoM-Ju6o fonepewHoM cewenHu CyAHa- fo; f — wosQiunenta BHYyTpeHHero TpeHNA cHIEyYHX rpy30B: qeli- CTBATEADHE H JtnaMiecknt (ycaonutiil), onpeseamemmit c y4e- + JOM JeicTsHa cH nHepuAH. g— YCKOpeHHe CHAN TAMeCTH. Al — weranentpwieckas BbIcoTa. hy hy — Beicota Boanm (em. «upeccus). hep — ocpeflHeHHoe 3Hayenne MeTaleHTpRieckod BHICOTHE CyiHa Ha NpOAGAbHOM BOHeHHH. fx; /)— MOMeHTEI HHepPIMH MaCCH! CYAHA OTHOCHTeNBHO TPOQOLHOll H TONepeyHow ocr. : fy; 1, To Ke € YICTOM TPHCOeAMHeHHOTO MOMeHTa HHEpLAH. K -— GespasMepHnii KoswpHinent Kea2paTHIHOTe ConpoTHBzeHHa Gop- TOBOH Kauxy. ky; bz — xoodxpuusenth AemncpaponanHa KHKeBOH 4M BepTAKabHOM KanKe no M. Zl. Xackuuzy. £ — yamna cyfua, amneniumi pasmep. t= L/v — ornocnreasuas aviuva cynna. {; dmax — BOCCTAHaBIHBaKMIee WIedo H MaKCHMATEHOe BOCCTaHaBIMBalllee nego cyaHa, {py — BOCCTalaBtaBaIoNice Ieqo PopMEl. ‘up — TulewO KpeHALlero MoMeHTa. 12) a — MAKCEMAJIbHBe BOCCTaHabMMBalMue Mew cyqHa Ha Bepuilthe H NOOUIBe BOA. lop — ocpequeHHoe BOCCTaRaBIMBaroulee Wieio Ha TPOJGALHOM BO/- HeHHE. . i, — BOSBLINIeH HE Hentpa AaWiekua. BeTpa Had UeHTPOM Aablekad BOAH. 5 MM; Myy — Macca Cyana H kpensului MoMeHT. ff — macta YaCTHIbl rpy3a W Mepa ceamOBaTOCIH. in,; M7, — MOM@HTB! H eHTPATbHbte MOMENTS Nopaaka a catysaiiiol peau. 4HHbl BOK cayualinol byskune. AN — kosppunuerkT compotHBaedua AHHeHHO kayKH. Ny; Ny — YEO SKCTPeMYMOB H YHCAO NepeceteHNk BorNorpaMMEl ¢ HyvIe- BoH AHHHeH 5 JAaBHOM IIPOMeKYTKE BPeMeHH. nf) _ yveso orpamaterbueix skcTpeMymos. P; p— pepostuocts cobnirna. Py p— ynop 4 OTHOCHTEMBINA ynop rpeduEIxX BHHTOR. P — cud AaMNenHA Betpa u rpysonoqvemuocry. Pay — degseiir. P — yAetbuoe AaBAeHHE HeTPa; Bec Mpysa A sacTHUR. rpysa. p — MMUYJIECHBHAa Harpy3Ka. ~ R— nposorLyst MeraenTpHieckuit pagaye. AR — Kpeusmlad CoctaRtaoMlat conpoTaencuna apefiby.- 1; fy — OPAWHATLI Bo aMMaTy A Bom. : rus fe — MOnepewHblit H NPOAOMDRL paluycel MHepuNH Maccht cyAHa- 3 — cmovenwad MogepxxocT, cyaHa HAM Mogean. Sp; Sp — npoekuHa HagBonHol H HOABOARO! YacTH cya Ha QMaMerpallb- Hy TMIOCKOCTE. S;; Sry — nnorkocta JHCReEpCHH BOJHOBLIxX opsuuaT A ShepreTHuecKHit CUCKTP BORHEHHH. S,, — sHepreTHuecKHit CheKTp BepTHRaTbHOA KauKH. Sa Sq; Sy — storwocTh AMCHepCHH MPHOBEHELX OpAUHaT WM yrsIOB KayKH, * # Si Sy: Sy — ncepocnextprl KavKH MPH KOCHX KYPCOBIX ymax. + Sy) Sy — NICeRAGCHERTPH NPHPAULCHHA MOMHOCTH Ha BOTHeHAH HM OTHO- CHICIBHEIX HEPTHKATbHBIX TepeMeunonalt cy Ava, T — ocagka cymua. ¢— 1poMeKyTOK BpemMenH? 4; Bq — CKOPOCT CYANa H CKOPOCTH Betpa, K/eeK. ulm); Hoy — MAKCHMANLHAA H CpeXHaA CKOPOCTh BeTpa B NopEBe. ut, ~— CKOPOCTA Zpetitha. V — aGneMioe BOROHaMEeHeHHeE. 0, Ug — CKOPOCTh cyaHa U Berpa, ysH. uv — JMuelifoe ycxopeune ops Goprosod KauKe. Uy — Junelizoe ycxopese npn Kaaepoll Radke B HOCOBOH OKOHeNHOCTH. W — Mouulocts, Bepostiocth, KosqxpAavent cONpOTHBNeHHA KBaspa- THUNOK KaTKH. ¥; ¥p — Koopakuaret TOUKH 4 eHTpa tTroKecTa rpysa, M3MCpeHHble no TOPHIOHTAMH. Z} %y — OPNuNaTH HW AMIVIMTYAb BEPTHKAABHOH KauKR. 2 — BosBHIWI€IHe IeHTpa BeTH4AHb! Han OCHOBROH MIOCKOCTHIO, — bosssluerHe TéHTpa TAKecTH cyaha Had OCHOBHOM MIOckocTBH. 2p BOSEBIWUCH HE IHTpa TswKecTr rpysa Hat MENTPOM TAMKECTH CyZHa, ie RO3BHIUEHHE TOPH3OHTANBHOM cOCcTaByT AIOMeH AaBAeHuA BETpAa Waq rpy20bol BaTepaHHhei. Zp — Bosnblllledve Kpenaulel coctab stowed COMPOTHBIEHHA Apelipy Hall WeHTpOM TaxKECTH cyaHa. — nepegatounan byikuua. Pz Dy; Sy — nepexaTousan PyHEuHA BepTAKaNsHoH, Soprosoh mu KHAeBOl Kauka. De; OD, — NepeqaTowwan PyHKOHA OTHOCHTETBHEIX BepTHKaJbHx KoseGa- HHH CYdHa H NPHPalleHHs MOWNOCTH Ha BoAHeHHE- a YHeNbHaA SHeEpraa BOATENHsT. & — xypcoboli yrom vw KosddbunmentT nonHoOTH Ppys0bow BaTepAMIHH. ‘ @ — yrodl nepecuitiaHaa (yrom mexAy cBobosHOK WOBeEpXHOCTBN) CHITY- vero rpy3a H NdocKocTa® Hakpalenmod BaTepluHun). fp — yrowt Mexay CcbOG0qHOH ToBepXHOCTbIO chinyyero rpysa 4 Topy- SOHTANDHOK MlocKocTblO. Beri Bys — yraH ecrecTBenoro oTkoca Chilyyero rpysa, NaxoaAWweroca B COCTOSHHH NOKOA WH ABWKCHHA (Nepecnimanas). fig — yron noxoa chmyyero rpy3a (B SBMCHMOCTH OT TOCTaHOBKH aagaqw mpegnonaraetcs, uTO By = Ber win By = Bap). Baw — uvamuseckatt (ycsOBHMA) yrOM NOKOx cLinyyero rpyaa, ompe- Reasembiii c yueTOM Fe#cTBH# CH] HNEDILHH. Baunt Bmax — MHBAMadailoe HW MaKCHMadBHOe SHAYEHHe YIla TOKOR. ¥ — (pasos yrom CyMMapHNX RePTHKalaHnx KomeGarait cyava H YACIbHEI Bec BBA. AR{ AP; AW — npupamenne conpoTHBaeHHA, YROpa A MOMHOCTH. Ac — mutepsaa yactor. AM, AJ,; AJ, — npncoeaunenHaa Macca Bog H TpKcoeqHHedHe MOMENT HHep- HHH Macchl. & — xoapbunpent o6mea noaEoTEl, 5y; dy; 62 — dasossie yrant GoproRoH, KWeBO H BepTHKatBHeh KacKH. Shap; Gp-z— pashocra thas Goptonoi a KHMeRO KavkH, KHvieROA HY BEpTH- KaAbHOH KAYKH COOTBETCTRCHEO, Ss_p — pasnecrs has Mexky CyMMAPHBIMH BepTHKaJbHeM KOReGaAAAMH cyAda BH KoweGaHiihH BOTHEL. Aye; Az, — npupaliiertne KOOpPAUHaT menTpa TaKecTH CyAHa. Agp; Azp — npxpaiyenne KOOpAKHat ueHTPa TaxkecTH rpysa. Al; Alg — wamenettve BoccTahabnbaloulero Iieva MOAHOTO 4 popMBr. & — weapdka tnexrpa. €) So — opznHara 4 aMIVIMTYNa CYMMAPHbIX BEPTHKAIbHIX TepeMellenHit CYAHa OTHOCHTEBHO ROBEPXHOCTH BOJHEL. 3 pen) — Han6ofbniee (o/loe) HorpyseHAe CYAa B BODY B AaHHOM T1O0- . TepegHOM CeyeHHH H B HoroBolt OKOHEYHOCTH. G co — BEPTHKaJbnad CocTaansolas CKOpocTH cOmmKeHHA Cy¥AHa C TO- BepXHOCTbW) BOVIHE! B JARHOM MOMepeiiOM ceqeHHH H B HOCOBOM OKCHESHOCTH. 0; 09 — yrabl H aMNaHTyqB GopTonoll Ka¥KH. Ge — aMnauTyla GopToBol KavKH pH pesonaxce. So; Bo — aMnaMTyAK yrTOBIx cKopocTel H ycKopennh npx Soptosoi kauike. 6; G) — yrom KpeHa H YrOuw PaBHOBeCCHA CyRHa C CbINYYHM rpy3soM. (8o)inay — M@KCHMA@AbHbH BO3MOKHMA YrOA Kpena NpH NepeckilaqHy rpyaa. im; Osax — YIIbI, CGOTBETCTBYIONINE MAKCHMYMY H 3aKaTy JuarpaMMel OcToii- qHEOCTH. Q, — ammantyna KagKE. qi Kyi Ke — PeMYRUMONHE Kosdxpunnenth! Mpa Goptorol, Kunepol H bep- THKANBHOH KaqKe. ‘ . % — yeanka rpy3a B MONaAx ofneMa OTCeKa. ut oO, ibd — MHOKATCAR B BUDAKERMAX PEAYKUHOMITX KOMpPROWeATOR MIpH Kanenol 4 BEPTHKaTbHo KauKe. 4; Ag — AJHa BHHMOH BOARH FW CpeANAA JWHHA BOMTHEL IIpH Heperyap- HOM BOJHEHHH. dont Amax — HHa BOTH, HeCYUIHX HaROOMbULYIO SHEPCHY, WH MAKCHMAAbHaA TABHA BOAH B YACTOTHOM CNeKTpe BQEHHA. ’ Apeg — Pe30HAHCHAA AHA BODHI. dys io — MNpucoexHnennad Macca H TIPHCOeAHMeHNBI MOMeHT HHepOAK BORE. Has bap; Hz — Ges paamMepHre Kos bbannertthy gaTyxanas GopToRol, kHTeBOf H BEPTHKAMBHOl Kaki. 7 f — meTanenTppieckaiy paanys. P: Pa — MAOTHOCTH BOA A BOSAL XA. G; Ox — "acTOTa H Kaxytlased yacToTa BOTHEL. 0 — cpeanexpasparuynoe OTKAOHEHHE. Te: Tx — TepwON HW Kaxcyululica nepHod perytspHol BONHEL. Tas To — CpeanHe Nepuogul heperyAspHHx BOTH, HIMepeHHHe NO BePWMAaM WH OHYAeBOA ALHHA KpPHBOH SanHCH BOAREHHA. T— Tepe cObctsenux KoweGanHa cyAWa 6e3 yTOUHeRhH sBiiga Kaqka. Tas Tys Te — NePHGAL cOGcTBeHBEIX TOMepEeUHETX, MPOMONBHO-yTIGBHX H Bep- THRaNbHeEX Konebannii eysna. GeapasMepHble TepHOAM COOCTBEHHLIX Nottepewibix KoxeGannii ‘D cyAWa, OTHECCHHBIe K PagHyCy HHePWHH, UADHHe H AWHHe CyANa. Tp” — SespasmepHuti nepuog, coOcTbeHHHx NpomOABHO-yrTOBMX KOAeGa- nui cynHa. + ht Tpet if — DephoAl H GeapasMepHe MepHOLe MpOAOAbHO-yrJoBbIX HW Bep- THKANbHEX KovleGanah cyaua (Ges yiouHeHua Bua Ka4KH). off); 3); aa = we —— WepHod cOOCTBeHHX MpoxOAbHO-yriOBHX KodeGann Mone 6. 46 CyAHa B BO3Ayxe. a) Te y HepwHON COGcTBeEHAHX MPOAOABHO-YIMOBHX HH RepThkayBABIX KoneGanult cyana a GasacTHOM mepexone. $3 Po — Koophunenr ApogorEHoh NoAWOTH H yroN BOANOBOPO cKsOHA. % — koadbausent BeprAKatbHOl NOAHOTH. %; Po — lan A aMMAHTyAH KAAeROH KauKH. thy; — aMMInTyAa KHNeBOH KATKA NpH peaonauce. gi Gy; Oz — TacToTa cBOGOAENX momepeqyX, TPOsCMEHO-YrJIOBHIX HK BepTH- KaIbHRX KONeGanHA cyAda. - @ — OTHOCHTeABRAag MON[HOCTH GYKCHPORKH. MAAEKCHI Alan oGosva4 cua CTaTacTWeckoll KaveropuH, K KOTOpOH OTHECeHH sHaueHHA Kakoi-H60 CTATHCTHYeCKOR BEAHYMHEL X (BHICOTH BOAR, AMNANTYIE KAWKH HT. H.) UPHMCHALOTCA HAIEKCH, KOTOPbIMH OTMeYaIOTCH cHeqyIOULMe ee 3HAIeHHA: %q — Cpewuve shayenna (MaremaTw4eckoe oHAaHue) Xuy — MOA; Fpy,— GHateHHe C oGecneyenuoctawo kM; Xy —~ MAKCHMAWBHO® 3HaveHHe H3 N BO3MOXKERMX: xl) cpednee Ha P MaKCHMaIbHLX 34aqeHHA; Xey — Kakoe-M60 cTaTACTHYecKoe aHayeHHe 6e3 yTOWHeHHA ero KaTeropHH. Tapa neppaa KPATKHE CBEJEHHA 43 TEOPHM BEPOATHOCTER eel alipucmynan x cooipasrenuam nocitpodKiu Hosazo KO- pabaa, HaYyKa abincnurt ece ycaoena sinoli nocmpolixu, m. e- odau cmuxuu [noxasameau. — JI. H.} sadacm, Opyente — no sadanHete coiyem, Ona sadgem me us cmuxuti. .., Komoe- ‘ POLMLL ECECMOPONHE & enoate OnpedeamOmca xapakmep, Yeaooust 4 scaxue oOtmosmeascmea GyOyujezo a0anux, KOpode zosops, sadaem dyuwy Kopabza, 4 nocpedcmsom smux Gannex noayucem. HCKOMBE CMUXLL, Komopete Oarom smoil dywe naeme: pasmep~ oud, cuepmanne, sce modpoGuocniut cocmasa u ucnoAHenUA. . .» Crenaw Onucusonny Bypavex, 1872 .r. § 1. GEY4ARHBIE COBbITAS H BERHYHHDI B reopun sepontuoctell nog co6Litaem TOHHMaIOT A10G0e ABIEHHE, KOTOpPOe B pesyHTATe OMbITa MOET NPOMZOHTH HH He npoHsoATH. OTHOUIGHHE HCA ONHTOR CONPOBORAAIONIMXCA MOABIeHHEM pac- CMATpHBaeMoro coGLITHA, K O6meMY YHCMY OMBITOB HasbipaeTcA ¢ro 4acmomol (nOBTOpAe@MOCTHIO). Uncaewno wactota cobnitwit H3MeHAeTCA B Mpeyeaax oT KYA 10 AHEM. Bepoaruocrs ecth uHcHedHaa Mepa BO3MOxHOCTH coGLITHH. [To Mepe YREIHYeHHA MHCAa ONBITOB YacToTa CoGnITHA, KoNeOAAch OKONO BeposTHOcTA, npwOwnxaeTca K nocaeauel. [ostomy vactory cobpiran MOMHO PACCMATPHBATh Kak CTO CTATHCTHYECKYIO BEPONTROCTS. Ecru np ocyuiecrazennu co6niria A momeT 6tITh ocymecTBAeHO co6nirue B, to Take COGBITHA Ha3bIBalOTCN cosMecmAolME B OTAMUHE OT NecosMeCtnnexX, HHAVe TOBOP#, ACKMOUAIOINHX Apyr Apyra coOnralt (wampaMep, nonazanne BLEND H MpoMax UpA OAHOM BLICTpete). CoOnt- THA MOryT 3aBHCeTh HH He 3aBHCeTh OT TOTO, NPOHSOIINM HAM HE nponsewian gpyrue co6bitaa. B nepBoM cayyae OHH Ha3bIBaloTCH SOUCUMMMU, 2 BO BTOPOM CiLydae — nedacucuMoLMN COOLITHAMB. Cayiatinod uasbipaiwr BeAKUMHY, KOTOPad B pesyAbTatTe onbita MOIKeT [IPHHHMAaTb pa3IHUHBIe 3apakee HEHSBeCTHLIe 3HavenHs. Pasavuatot duckpemawe cryuaiHble BEAHUMESI, COcObHEe NpHHHMaTb B JGHHOM HHTEPBaTe MHUIb OMpelenenHbe KOHKpPeTHHe 3HaTeHHA, Ki Nenpepoanne chyWalHbe BENHYMHL, KOTOpHe MOryT [pHHHMaTb B 3TOM HHTepsae obble 3HaueHHA. Mexay noHsTHaMH cnyyaiivoe coOnTHe wm CAy4aiinad BeAMIAHAa eCTh WSBeCTHAA AHAMOTHA, TOCKONEKY AMCKpeTHaA cayyalHad Be- AWWHHa, IPHHAMalOWad TOSPKO ABa 3uaNeHHA, 4 HMCHHO eQHHALLY, Kora coOniTve copepwiaetca, # HY — B NPOTHBOTIONOMKHOM Cy4ae, 9 npebpamaerca 00 cyTH Jena B cayyaiuoe cobpirme. [losromy nosatue CAydaHwOh BeAMGHHbL MOKHO TpaxTOBaTh Kak JabHelitee pasBHTue NOHATHA COYVAAHOTO cObnITHA. Cymmod deyx coGsimud vasuBaior costae, KoTOpoe CcBO_UTCA K BHMOTHEHHIO AuO6o mepsoro cOOnTHA, TH6O BSToporo coGnITHA, an60 oGonx coOmTHfi BMecte. [lo ananorun c STAM CyMMOH HECKOADENX COObITHH “HagbIBAIOT cOGbITHe, CoLepxKaHHeM KOTOPOrO ABMAAeTCH XOTH 6bI OHO 43 STHX COGLITHH. Tlycth ReponThocTa HecKOABKUX HECOBMECTHEIX cOORTHA (CoB Tat Ay; Ags ...; Ay) GymeT py; Pos. - 5 py. Torga BePpOATHOCTL Toro, UTO WipOHsOHZeT xorn Gul OAHO M3 9THX COOKITH, BLIpasuTca papeHcTBOM P= pyr patie. t+ Pa (1.01) Popmyaa (1.01) supamaer meopemy caoxenua ceposnuocmetl, COMaChO KOTOPOH BEPOATHOCTL ORHOFO H3 HECKOABKHX HeCOBMeECT- HbIX COObITHH paBHa CyMMe@ HX BeposTHoctei. AlonycTum B KavecTBe MpuMepa, YTO B ypHe comepxRatca m HemBX, —KpacHbx WH & CHHAX wapos, KOTOpHIe BHHAMAIOT HE Tuan, Nycte, Kpome toro, m = 10,2 =7 a k = 3. Toraa BEpOATHOCTE BRIKYTL KpacHbit Wap WH UBeTHOH (Tr. e. Kpacubli wan cuuait) wap PaBHa CcOOTBETCTEeEHHO : a 7 Pes pee TET ER = 9:85; =—2t* _ os, a am tnte Hpoussedenuem AByx cobwiTuit wa3mbalor cobprrae, cocrosmiece B COBMECTHOM BBINOIHeHHH o60Hx cobpiTaii. Cxa3anHoe MOMKHO OT- HECTH K HECKOABKAM COOBITHEM HAH rpynge, Kaklat 43 KOTOpHIX COCTOHT H3 HCCKOMDKUX cobbITHH. : Coraacio nepsod meopene ymuovcenun sepoamnocmed wepoatHocTh CHO*HOLO COGLITHS, COCTORUIETO U3 HECKOMBKHX, He SABKCSIAX pyr OT jpyra coOnitHi, pabha npon3Besenuio ux BepontHocted. B coor- BETCTBHU C STHM, COXpallAA NpeKHHe OOO3HaNeCHHA, MOWHO HanncaTb P= Dy... Da. (1.02) B yactnoctu, ecau py = f,g—... = Pa,» TO = pr. Coxpanaa npexHMe Aanepe, aligem ma ocHOBaRHA dbopmynt (1.02), uvo BeposTHocTR BbIHyTh JBa paza NOApag wperuoli map, €CIH BBIHYThI B nepRblit pas Wap BOsBpalieH B ypHY, — _tatkP P= arate 0,25. 10 Cormacho emopod meopeme yanooenua cepoamuocmel BEpOATHOCT CAOMKHOTO COGLITHA, COCTOMIMETO H3 ABYX NIPOCTHIX, SABNCAWIMA Apyr or apyra coOttuli, pasna seposTHOcTH OfHOTO M3 |THX COORITHH, yMHOXXeHHOM Ha yeacenyro eeposmxocme Broporo cobstTua. Ton TocmeqHeli NOHUMACTCA BEPOATHOCTD, MORCUUTANHAA B Npelnonowe- HAM, UTO MepBoe cobbiTde NpousomO. Dror pesynstaT mMomweT OolTb BhipaacH opMyaoh P= pyps (Aa/A), roe/ py (Ag/A,) — yeaonnan BepoxtHocts coGbiTua A 4. Bosppatadch K paccMOTpenHOMy MpuMepy, HalifeM, TO BepOAT- HOCTh BHIEYTh nepBbii pas uBeTHOH Wap n-tk a Pr= eae 7 5 Beposrnoctb xe BLIHYTb BTOPOK pas WBeTHOH Lap, CCIM BBIKYTHIi paneé WBeTHOH Wap He BOSBpalled B yYpHy acLk— _ a= ape 7 0472. Tloaromy pH HOBOM MOCTAHOBKE Sagat MOnas BepoATHOCTL BEIKYTS HBA pasa NOApAR WeeTHoH wap (ecAH BHINYTHIM B Nepabii pas WLBETHO Wap We BOsBpALleH B ypuy) BEIpasutTca UMppon . P= ppa = 0,236. § 2. IMAOTHOCTh BEPOATHOCTH H @YHKUKA PACHPEDEJEHHA CAYUAAHOA BEJHUKHbI Tlycts cayuafvad AMCKpeTHas BeEARNHHA Xx MPHNuMaeT PAA YacT- HBIX SHAUCHHU X14; Xo} .- .; Xp, KOTOPEIM COOTRETCTBYET BePpOATHOCTS Pri Pol -- 3 Py. OOosHauHE B OOUIeM caydae Bepoatnocth GyxBoli P, MOMHO SaNnHCaTh UCXOMMYIO NpeAMOChMIKY Tak: P(x = ay) = pu P(e = to) = pas P(e = a) = Po TIpRueM At pat... tm = I. @yAKNEA, NOKASbIBAWWAA, C KakOl BepodTHOCThIO cAyvanHan JMcKpeTHad BeNMUHHA MPMHMMAeT Te HIM Buble SHateHud (B DanHoM Cnydae X= 443 Xgi .- 5 Xa), MaswBaerca @yxnyuet pacnpedesenua TO BeABYHHBI. i Bepostuocts yacTunx Stlauenui cayyalinok nenpeppiprol. pe- audaue + Xapaktepasylor naomuocmen sepoamnocmu, TloR nocaen- He# NOHHMaIOT dyHKIHIO — fin Ae _ dp Fay= lima = ae? tae Ap = f (x) Ax — Bepostaocth Toro, uTo cuyyalinad BenHuHHa OKaKeTCA B JAHHOM HuTepBade Ax, HH, HHaYe rOBOpA, B MATepBase mexay x u x + Ax. Teomerpxsecku (pac. 1) ata BepontHoct Bpipa- SKTCH TMOWaxKOH, HMeioMeH ocHoBaHue Ax Hu MpocTapatowelica .ot ocH aOcuHce AO Kpusodl pacnpederenua, 1. e. KPUBOI, BEIpamKaroureli im Tpaduyecku dyaKuno f (x). DynKuna . £ / F@)= ffeyde 7 HASHIBAeTCA UAmespadsHad bynK- ty L qued (Wau npocino mynKyuett) pac- Pae. 1, Twomocrh peportaocti. npedesenin HenpepEBHOR crywali- HOH BewHdnubl, yuna F (x) eCTh HEOTPHIaTeAbHad, HeyOLBdioMad yHKUMa cBoero aprymenta. Ecau WHTerpHpoBanue mponsBouHTca B npezeaax oT —oco mo +co, TO wa Naloc Geckoneqnocta be \ F@)de =I. —o Ha Munye Geckonewoctn g@yuKuua pacnpeqencnua papHa uymo. TInoruocra @yHKUMA pacnpesesenus AOCTaTOUHO MOARO xXapaK- TepH3ylor cayualnylo BenuuMAy. B yacTrHocTH, OHH MO3BONsIOT pac- CUHTATh BEPOATHOCTS TOTO, YTO CAYYAdHAN BENHIHHA OKAKETCA B TEX HAH WHBIX Sa7aHHbIX Mpeyestax, W pewaTh PAL APYTUX sazau anano- rawHOrO xapaxtepa. Tlycth, HanpuMep, HaxO onpesenHTb BeposT- HOCTS HAXOMCHHA BEAMUHABI XB MHTepBane MEM Ly X = xy UX = xo. O6o3HaunB BeposTHocTh store coGhitHn uepes P (xv,

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