China's Clean-Truck Surprise Defies The EV Slowdown Narrative - Bloomberg

2024/3/28 18:50 China’s Clean-Truck Surprise Defies the EV Slowdown Narrative - Bloomberg
Newsletter | Hyperdrive
China’s Clean-Truck Surprise Defies the EV Slowdown

Narrative
Efforts to electrify the commercial vehicle sector are years in the making and beginning to pay
off.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-05/china-s-clean-truck-surprise-defies-the-ev-slowdown-narrative 1/15
EV Slowdown: Sales Slump Battery-Powered Blues Best Electric Cars Tough Crowd in US $57 Tr
A battery-swap facility at one of PetroChina’s gas stations in Shanghai. Source: Bloomberg
By Colin McKerracher
年月日
2024 3 5 at GMT+8 20:00
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Thanks for reading Hyperdrive, Bloomberg’s newsletter on the future of the auto world.
China’s Narrative Violation

For all the headlines about automakers dialing back their plans for electric vehicles,
there have been some pockets of surprisingly positive news on EV adoption the last few
months.
On the passenger vehicle side, BNEF estimates that EVs reached 20% of global vehicle
sales in the final quarter of last year. China and Europe are way out ahead, but it was a
record quarter in other markets, as well.
Electric Vehicles Hit 20% of Global Sales At The End Of 2023

EV share of passenger car sales by country
China Japan North America South Korea Europe Global
40 %
30
20
10
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: BloombergNEF
Includes battery electric and plug-in hybrid passenger cars.
The electric commercial vehicle market is followed less closely, but also saw record sales
in the final months of 2023. China has been pushing on this front for several years, and
it looks like those efforts are now paying off.
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Over 5,600 electric or fuel cell medium- and heavy-duty trucks were sold in China in the
final month of the year. That was a remarkable 10% of the total, and pulled the tally for
all types of commercial EV sales in China to over 330,000 for the year. Light commercial
EVs in China took 16% of the market in December.
China's Clean Truck Market Is Picking Up Speed

EV and fuel cell share of vehicle sales in China
Light commercial Medium/heavy commercial
15 %
10
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2021 2022 2023
Source: BloombergNEF, China Automotive Information Network

Those may seem like modest numbers, but heavy trucks were supposed to be one of the
hardest segments to electrify, and many groups expected them to keep oil demand in
the country growing for years to come. Hitting 10% of the market is meaningful, and
puts them just a few years behind passenger cars.
There’s now a growing list of areas where industry commentators thought electrification
would struggle to make inroads, from buses to ferries. Reaching this level of sales in the
world’s largest auto market, even if just for a month, means it’s probably time to add
heavy trucks to that list.
There are two other interesting storylines in China’s heavy-truck data. The first is that
hydrogen fuel cells are finally making their presence felt, with over 1,000 fuel cell-
powered heavy trucks sold in December. That’s the highest tally yet and more than
twice that of any previous month. China is providing very generous incentives for truck
manufacturers to deploy fuel cell vehicles, and the market is starting to respond.
There are still many challenges for fuel cell trucks, and sales probably won’t will
continue at this rate once subsidies expire. But it’s good to see a technology that has
promised so much over the years finally get some traction. Consumers have shown very
little interest in fuel cells on the passenger vehicle side, but the technology could still
play a role in some smaller trucking applications.
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The second storyline is that battery swapping is also helping electrifying China truck
sales. BNEF analyst Siyi Mi recently compiled data on all the battery-swappable vehicles
sold in the country and found that while swapping remains a niche technology for
passenger vehicles, almost half of all heavy battery electric trucks sold last year in China
had swappable batteries. That’s up from 34% in 2021.
Battery Swapping Is Taking Off In Heavy Electric Trucks

Sales of heavy-duty commercial battery electric vehicles in China by type
Battery swapping Charging only
30 K
20
10
0
2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: BloombergNEF, China Automotive Technology and Research Center

Many of these trucks are operating in industrial sites, port warehouses, mines and
steelmaking factories. Lighter commercial vehicles with swappable batteries also are
being used in urban deliveries, an area where BNEF expects to see more growth as
better economics and tightened emission requirements draw more attention to electric
models. Long-haul trucking will be the last, and most difficult, segment to tackle.
So far, this remains a China story, helped along by its domestic champions. CATL, the
largest battery maker in the world, has supported the swapping model in recent years as
a way to ensure batteries find their way into big rigs rather than other competing
alternatives.
Activity elsewhere is limited. In Europe, Iveco launched an electric delivery van with
three sizes of swappable batteries last year, while Mitsubishi Fuso is trialing a battery-
swapping truck in Japan. In the longer term, pure battery-electric will probably win out,
since lithium-ion batteries continue to get cheaper and better, and maximum charging
speeds are rising fast.
All this points to a big shift that may be coming. China has spent the last few years
experimenting with the best way to decarbonize heavy trucks. As it crosses these
milestones on adoption, it will start to push harder toward higher levels of deployment.
That parallels what happened with electric passenger cars — China experimented with
different approaches throughout the 2010s, then made a full-court press in the 2020s.
BNEF expects plug-in cars to hit nearly 40% of sales this year in China.
While Western automakers are sounding the alarm on slowing growth for electric car
demand, other segments are just getting started.
No Longer No. 1
Elon Musk. Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg
For the first time in more than nine months, Elon Musk is no longer the world’s richest
person. Musk lost his position atop the Bloomberg Billionaires Index to Jeff Bezos after
Tesla shares tumbled 7.2% on Monday. Musk now has a net worth of $197.7 billion;
Bezos’ fortune is $200.3 billion.
Read More:
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AI companies succeed EV makers as market darlings.
Lawyers who nixed Musk’s pay plan seek Tesla stock.
News Briefs
VW faces suits claiming Porsche EV sparked ship fire.
China accuses US of ‘classic protectionism.’
Michigan battery startup ONE cuts 13% of workforce.
Before You Go
An MG Cyberster electric car at the Singapore Motorshow in January. Photographer: Lionel Ng/Bloomberg
A young couple leans in for a kiss as the sun casts shades of purple, pastel pink and
orange across a city skyline. In the background, a line of sleek electric vehicles charge
their batteries. Far from advertising a new romantic comedy, billboards and social
media posts are urging Singapore to “fall in love with EVs.” The twist on traditional film
tropes is just one part of a campaign — which also includes a short video in the style of a
Hollywood action-thriller, and a comedian debunking myths about EVs — that the
government is rolling out to get residents to go electric. The city-state plans to phase out
new registrations of internal combustion engine cars from 2030 and to have 60,000 EV
charging points that same year.
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Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com.
Colin McKerracher manages coverage of the transport sector at BloombergNEF. His team
analyses the policy, technology and economic factors shaping the future of road transport. Main
areas of coverage include electric vehicles, batteries, charging infrastructure, shared mobility,
autonomous driving and energy market impacts.
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2024/3/28 18:50 China’s Clean-Truck Surprise Defies the EV Slowdown Narrative - Bloomberg

China’s Clean-Truck Surprise Defies the EV Slowdown

A battery-swap facility at one of PetroChina’s gas stations in Shanghai. Source: Bloomberg

China’s Narrative Violation

Electric Vehicles Hit 20% of Global Sales At The End Of 2023

The Mega Corporations That Control What Americans Eat

Can a Legally Binding Treaty Fix the World’s Plastic Problem?

China's Clean Truck Market Is Picking Up Speed

Source: BloombergNEF, China Automotive Information Network

Battery Swapping Is Taking Off In Heavy Electric Trucks

Source: BloombergNEF, China Automotive Technology and Research Center

Elon Musk. Photographer: Jordan Vonderhaar/Bloomberg

Tesla China shipments drop to lowest in over a year.

AI companies succeed EV makers as market darlings.

Lawyers who nixed Musk’s pay plan seek Tesla stock.

China accuses US of ‘classic protectionism.’

Michigan battery startup ONE cuts 13% of workforce.

More from Bloomberg

Tech Daily for what to know in tech

Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com.

Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in Touch

Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal

More From Bloomberg

Dubai Sheikh Abruptly Halts Plans for HK Family Office

Japan Amps Up Intervention Threat as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990

UBS Banker’s Frustration Exposes Cracks in World of Climate Finance

FTX’s Original Sin Is a Warning to All of Crypto

Housing Crisis, Packed Hospitals and Food Lines: Even in Canada?

Market Data Economics

Careers Made in NYC Advertise Ad Choices Help

©2024 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.

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