EV market trends

and outlook
Shift Up a Gear

Colin McKerracher
Head of Advanced Transport
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@colinmckerrache

September 6, 2017
Analysis to help you understand
the future of energy and transport

Solar Wind Power and Gas Carbon Energy Smart Storage Electric Mobility and Frontier Emerging
Utilities Markets & Technologies Vehicles Autonomous Power Technologies
Climate Driving

Americas Europe, Middle East Asia Pacific

& Africa

1 September 06, 2017

Global EV sales by region
Thousand units

1,018

46
We expect passenger EV
sales to be just over 1m in 218
2017 695 21

158 283
448 23

32 209
288 115
206 29
122 27 116 182 435
96 36 283
30 96
56 66 114

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

China Europe US Japan Canada South Korea RoW
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines, automakers, vehicle registration agencies Note: EV sales include BEV and PHEV sales. China data exclude low-speed
EV sales and commercial vehicles.

2 September 06, 2017

Countries where EVs were above
1% of total passenger vehicle
sales

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines

3 September 06, 2017

China’s vehicle sales according to
the recent 2025 plan
Millions of 35
vehicles sold
30 7
28.0 2
24.6 0.5
23.5
22.0
19.3

27.5 28 28
23.4 24.3
22.0
19.3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020e 2025e

Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) New Energy Vehicle (NEV)

Source: China Automotive Information Net, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

4 September 06, 2017

Electric vehicle model availability
Number of models available

250
Examples of automakers’ stated electrification targets
VW Group 2.5 million annual EV sales by 2025
200 Daimler 15%-25% of annual sales being EVs by 2025

Honda 15% of annual sales being BEVs by 2030

150
FCV
PHEV

100 BEV

50

0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

5 September 06, 2017

BNEF 2016 battery pack price
survey results, 2010-2016
($ per kWh)
-20% -20% -7% -10% -35% -22%

1000

800

642
599
540

350
273

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: This includes cells plus pack prices and is an average of BEV and PHEV prices. For years where there were two surveys, the
data in this chart is an average for the year.

6 September 06, 2017

The supply chain is maturing
Global EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity

2017 capacity:
90 GWh/year

2021 planned* capacity:

290 GWh/year

Source: BNEF battery manufacturing database.

*Planned = announced or under construction

7 September 06, 2017

Metal content of lithium-ion batteries by
cathode chemistry, % of total metal
content by weight per kWh
2 8
17
28 26 26
33

%Phosphorous
73 %Iron
89 30 36 54 72
94 45 %Manganese
%Aluminum
60 %Nickel

30 %Cobalt
27
18 18 %Lithium
14
9

11 11 7 12 11 11 11 11
6
LCO NCA LMO LFP NMC NMC NMC NMC NMC
(111) (433) (532) (622) (811)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: The numbers associated with NMC represent the ratio of Nickel:Manganese:Cobalt in each particular blend.

8 September 06, 2017

Annual global light duty vehicle
sales
million cars per year

140

120

100 ICE sales,

54%
total
80 43%
​ ​ EV sales,
​ ​
60 total
​
24% ​
40 ​ EV % of
​ new sales
8% ​
20 ​
​ ​
1% 3% ​
​ ​ ​
0 ​ ​ ​ ​
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: ICE sales include traditional hybrids.

9 September 06, 2017

EV forecasts then and now

EV fleet size, 2020-40

Million EVs
600
BNEF – 2016

500 BNEF – 2017

BP – 2016
400
BP – 2017

Exxon – 2016
300
Exxon – 2017

200 OPEC – 2015

OPEC – 2016
100
IEA – 2016

IEA – 2017
-
2020 25 30 35 40
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, organization websites. Notes: IEA forecasts to 2030 and BP forecasts to 2035. OPEC has not yet published its 2017 Oil Outlook.
Only BNEF and OPEC provide annual data points for EV fleet size. Some data points for BP, ExxonMobil, OPEC and the IEA are estimated based on organization charts,
reports and data. BNEF, BP and OPEC forecasts include just BEVs and PHEVs. ExxonMobil and IEA forecasts include BEVs, PHEVs and fuel cell vehicles. For more on the
changes between BNEF’s 2016 and 2017 long-term EV forecasts, see our July 6, 2017 Research Note “Global EV Sales Outlook to 2040” (web | terminal).

10 September 06, 2017

Impact of raw material price fluctuations
on NMC battery pack costs in %

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Note: NMC chemistry modelled here is NMC (111); NMC battery pack cost is $223/kWh

11 September 06, 2017

What else could derail global EV
sales?

12 September 06, 2017

Thank you!

Colin McKerracher

Cmckerracher@bloomberg.net
sales.bnef@bloomberg.net

13 September 06, 2017

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14 September 06, 2017