New L J Institute of Engineering and Technology Semester: III (2021-22)

(2021

SUBJECT NAME: PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS (PS)

SUBJECT CODE:3130006

Sr.
No
CHAPTER - 1: PROBABILITY Marks
TOPIC:1 PERMUTATION & COMBINATION
SHORT QUESTIONS
1 In how many different ways can 4 of 15 laboratory assistants be chosen to assist with an
a 3
experiment? ? (Nov-2019-NEW)
Solution:
This is a combination (chosen) problem.

Total Laboratory assistant = n =15

Laboratory assistant to be chosen = r = 4
No. of ways of choosing 4 laboratory assistant to assist with an experiment

× × ×
=15 = = 1365
× × ×
!
(Using formula = )
!( )!

2 Find the number of permutations of fair letters A,B,C and D taken two at a time. 3
Solution:
This is a Permutation (Arrangement) problem.
n =4, r = 2

ABACAD
BABCBD
CACBCD
DADBDC

! × × ×
No. of Permutations =4 = = =12
( )! ×
!
(Using formula = )
( )!

3 In how many different ways can the director of a research laboratory choose 2 chemists 3
from among 7 applicants and 3 physicists from among 9 applicants
applicants?(Nov-2018-OLD)
Solution:
This is a combination (chosen) problem.
Total chemist applicants = n =7
Chemist to be chosen = r = 2
Chemist can be chosen in 7 ways.
Total Physicist applicants = n =9
Physicist to be chosen = r = 3
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Physicist can be chosen in9 ways.

× × ×
Together: (7 ) (9 ) = × =(21) (84) = 1764
× × ×

TOPIC:2 PROBABILITY
RANDOM EXPERIMENT
An experiment is called random exper experiment if
(i) It has more than one possible outcome.
(ii) It is not possible to predict the outcome in advance.
OUTCOME:
A possible result of a random experiment is called an outcome.
Eg. If a coin is tossed twice we have
have,
HH, HT, TT, TH
SAMPLE SPACE:
A set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called a Sample Space.
Eg. A coin is tossed twice
S = { HH, HT, TT, TH }
EVENT:
Any subset of a sample space is called an event.
E = { HH, TT }
 Impossible event: An event th that can’t happen. Ø (Empty Set)
 Sure Event: An event which always happens happens. S (Sample Space)
 Simple Event: An event which has only single outcome( one sample point). point
 Compound Event: An event which has m more than one possible outcome..
 Complementary Event: Given an event A,
A’ = = S – A
 Equally likely events:
The events are said to be equally likely when chances of occurrence of all the
outcomes are same.
Eg. In tossing a coin, Head or tail are equally likely events.
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE AND EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS:
Let S be the Sample
mple space of the random experiment.
A set of events Ai (i=1 to n) is said to be mutually exclusive if
A1 n A2 n A3 … An = Ø,
Exhaustive if
A1 U A2 U A3 … UAn = S
Eg. Tossing a coin,
 There are two exhaustive events
Head or Tail
 The events Head or Tail are mutually exclusive since both head and tail cannot
occur at the same time
MATHEMATICAL PROBABILITY
Definition:
Let n = The number of equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes of a
random experiment
m = The number of favourable outcomes of an event A
The probability of event A is defined and denoted as as,

.
P(A) = =
SHORT QUESTIONS

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1 A 4-sided fair die is thrown

hrown twice. What is the probability that the sum of the two 1
outcomes is equal to 6? (May-2016
2016-OLD)
Solution:

ROLLING A 4-SIDED
SIDED DICE

When a 4-sided
sided die is thrown twice, the sample space is given by

S={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),
S={(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3)
(4,4)}
n(S)=16
Total outcomes= 4×4=16
Let A be an event of getting the sum of the two outcomes is equal to 6.
A={(2,4),(4,2)}
n(A)=2
( )
p(A) = ( )
= = =
2 An unbiased coin is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of obtaining two heads? 1
(May-2016-OLD)
Solution:

HEAD TAIL
TOSSING A COIN 3 TIMES

When an unbiased coin is tossed 3 time

times, the sample space is
S = {HHH,HHT,HTH, THH,TTT,TTH,THT,HTT}
THH,TTT,TTH,THT,HTT}; n(S)=8

Let A be an event of obtaining two heads

A={HHT,THH,HTH}; n(A)=3

( )
p(A) = ( )
= =

3 In tossing 3 balanced coins, what is the pr

probability of getting 2 heads? 1
Solution:

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When 3 balanced coins are tossed,, the sample space is

S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTT, TTH, THT, HTT}

HTT}; n(S)=8

Let A be an event of getting two heads

heads; A={HHT,THH,HTH}; n(A)=3

( )
p(A) = ( )
= =

4 An unbiased coin is tossed 6 times. Find the probability of getting 4

(i) exactly 4 heads,
(ii) At least 4 heads. . (Nov-2018-OLD)
OLD)
Solution:

When an unbiased coin is tossed 6 times, Total outcomes = 2 = 64

For getting exactly 4 heads, Favourable outcomes= 6 = 15

(i) The probability of getting exactly 4 heads =

For getting at least 4 heads, Favourable outcomes = 6 +6 + 6 =15+6+1=22

22

(ii) The probability of getting at least 4 heads =

DESCRIPTIVE QUESTIONS
1 Four cards are drawn from a pack of cards. Find the probability that 3
(i) All are diamonds,
(ii) There is one card of each suit,
(iii)There are two spades and two hearts.
(Nov-2016-OLD)

Solution:

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Total cards in a pack = 52

Let A be an event of getting all diamond

diamonds
B be an event of getting one card of each suit
C be an event of getting two spades and two hearts

13 4 × × × × × ×
(i) P(A)= 52 = × = =0.0026
4 × × × × × ×

( )( )( )(( ) × × × × × ×
(ii) P(B) = = × = =0.1054
=
× × × × × ×

( ) ( ) × × × × × ×
(iii) P(C) = = × = =0.0224
× × × × × ×
2 A class consists of 6 girls and 10 boys. If a committee of three is chosen at random from
the class, find the probability that,(i) three boys are selected ;( ii)) exactly two girls are
selected. (Nov-2018-OLD)
Solution:

Total no. of students = 6+10=16

A committee of 3 students from 16 students can be chosen in
in16 ways.
n(S) = 16 = 560
10 3
(i)Let A be an event that 3 boys are selected ∴ P(A) = 163
=
( )( )
(ii)Let B be an event that exactly two girls are selected. ∴ P(B) = =

3 Find ( ∩ ), given that ( ) = , ( ) = & ( ∪ ) = 3

Solution:

( ∪ )= ( )+ ( )- ( ∩ )

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( ∩ )= ( )+ ( )- ( ∪ )
= + -

= =

4 A market survey was conducted in four cities to find out the preference for brand soap. 4
The responses are shown below:
Delhi Kolkata Chennai Mumbai
Yes 45 55 60 50
No 35 45 35 45
No Opinion 5 5 5 5
(a) What is the probability
bility that a consumer preferred brand , given that he was from
Chennai?
(b) Given that a consumer preferred brand , what is the probability that he was from
Mumbai?(Oct-2020-NEW)
Solution:

Delhi Kolkata Chennai Mumbai Total

Outcomes
Yes 45 55 60 50 210
No 35 45 35 45 160
No Opinion 5 5 5 5 20
Total 85 105 100 100 390
outcomes

(a)The
he probability that a consumer preferred brand , given that he was from Chennai
= = =
(b) Given that a consumer preferred brand , the probability that he was from Mumbai
= = =

5 If 3 balls are “randomly drawn” from a bowl contcontaining

aining 6 white and 5 black balls. What is 4
the probability that one of the balls is white and the other two black?
black?(Nov-2019--NEW)
Solution:
W W W W W W B B B B B
Total number of balls =6 (White)+
+ 5 (Black) = 11

Ways of drawing 3 balls from 11 balls = Total number of outcomes = 11

One white ball can be randomly drawn from a bowl in 6 way.
Two black balls can be randomly drawn from a bowl in 5 ways.
( )( ) × × × × ×
Probability of drawing one white and two black ball = = =
× × ×

6 A room has three lamp sockets. From a collection of 10 light bulbs of which only 6 are 3
good. A person selects 3 at random and puts them in the socket. What is the probability
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that (i)All 3 bulbs glow (ii)The

he room will have ligh
light?
Solution:

3 LIGHT SOCKET
SOCKETS

Total number of light bulbs = 10

3 bulbs are randomly selected by a person to put them in lamp sockets.
× ×
Total number of outcomes = 10 = = 120
× ×
× ×
glow, which occur in 6
(i)Let A be an event that all 3 bulbs glow = = 20 ways
way
× ×

P(A) = = =

(ii)Let B be an event that the room will have light.

And be the event that the room is dark
dark.
Occurs when 3 bulbs are selected from 4 defective bulbs.
Number of favorable outcomes for = 4 = 4

P( ) = = =

P(B) = 1 - P( ) = 1 - =

7 If 5 of 20 tires in storage are defective and 5 of them are randomly chosen for inspection 4
(That is, each tire has the same chance of being selected), what is the probability that the
twoo of the defective tires will be included?
included?(Nov-2019-NEW)
Solution:

DEFECTIVE TIRES
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Total number of tires =20; Defective

efective tires = 55; Non defective tires = 15
5 tires are randomly chosen out of 220 for inspection, it can be chosen in 20 ways.
Let A be an event that the two of the defective tires will be included

( )( ) × × × × × × ×
P(A) = = × × = 0.2934
× × × × × × ×

8 A university warehouse has received a shipment of 225 5 printers, of which 10 are laser 4
printers and 15 are inkjet models. If 6 of these 25 are selected at random to be checked by
a particular technician, what is the probability that exactly 3 of those selected are laser
printers (so that the other 3 are inkj
inkjets)? (Nov-2019-NEW)
Solution:

10 LASER PRINTERS 15 INKJET PRINTERS

Total printers = 25
Laser printers = 10, Inkjet models = 15
Let A be the event that among randomly selected 6 printers,
3 are laser printers and 3 are inkjets
ets

( )( ) × × × × × × × × ×
P(A) = == × × = 0.3083
× × × × × × × × ×

TOPIC:3 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Definition: Let A and B be any two events of a sample space S. Then the probability of
the occurrence of the event A given that event B has already occurred is denoted and
defined as

( ∩ )
P (A/B) = ; P (B) > 0 Which is known as Conditional Probability.
( )
Similarly,

( ∩ )
P(B/A) = ( )
; P(A) > 0

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Definition: Two events A and B are said to be Independent if

P(B/A) =P(B) or P(A/B) =P(A)

P(A)
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i. e. The occurrence of event A has no impact on the occurrence of event B.

Otherwise they are said to be dependen
dependent.

If A and B are Independent events,

P(A∩B) = P (A).P (B)

In general,
( ⋂ ⋂ …..⋂ ) = P( ) . P( ) . P( ) ….. P( )

If A, B,C are independent events, ̅, , ̅ will also be independent.

( ∪ ∪ ) = 1 – ( ) .P( ) .P( )
PAIRWISE
WISE INDEPENDENCE AND MUTUAL INDEPENDENCE

Definition: The events A,B and C are mutually independent if the following conditions
are satisfied simultaneously:
P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B)
P(B ∩C) = P(B) P(C)
P(C∩ A) = P(C) P(A) and
P(A∩B ∩C ) = P(A) P(B) P(C)

If the
he last condition is not satisfied, the events are said to be pair wise independent.
independent
MUTUALLY INDEPENDENT EVENTS ARE ALWAYS PAIRWISE
INDEPENDENT BUT NOT VICE A VERSA VERSA.

MULTIPLICATION THEOREM ON PROBABILITY

Let S be sample space, and A and B be any two even
events in S, then
P (A∩ B) = P (A). P(B/A) If P(A) ± 0
= P (B). P(A/B) If P(B) ± 0

TOTAL PROBABILITY THEOREM

Let B1and B2 be two mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of a sample space S out of
which one definitely occurs and then the event A occur. The
Then
n the probability of the
occurrence of the event A is
P(A) = P(B1 ) P(A/B1)+ P(B2) P(A/
P(A/B2)

SHORT QUESTIONS
1 Compute P(A/B), if P(A)=0.6, P(B)=0.7
)=0.7 and P(A∩B) = 0.3 (May-2017-OLD) 1
Solution:
P(A∩ B) = P (B). P(A/B) If P(B) ± 0
( ∩ ) .
P(A/B) = = =
( ) .

2 Check whether and are independent events if P ( ) = 0.25,P( ) = 0.40,, and 3

P( ⋃ ) = 0.50 (Oct-2020-NEW)
Solution:
( ∩ )= ( )+ ( )- ( ∪ )
= 0.25 + 0.40 – 0.50
= 0.15
Two events independent are said to be independent if ( ∩ ) = ( ). ( )
( ). ( ) = (0.25).(0.40) = 1
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So, A and B are not independent events.

3 If and are independent

endent events with ( )=0.26, and ( )=0.45, 3
Find ( ) ( ⋂ ); ( ) ( ⋂ ̅); ( ) ( ̅⋂ ̅).(Mar-2021-NEW)
Solution:
A and B are independent events, hence
(a) ( ⋂ ) = ( ). ( ) = ( 0.26 )(0.45) =0.1170
(b) ( ⋂ ̅) = ( ). P( ) =(0.26).26) (1
(1-0.45) = (0.26) (0.55) =0.143
(c) ( ̅⋂ ̅) = P( ). ( )= (1--0.26).(1-0.45) = (0.74) (0.55) = 0.4070
( ∵ P( ̅) = 1 -P(A) )

DESCRIPTIVE QUESTIONS
1 A person is known to hit the target in 3 out of 4 shots, whereas another person is known to 3
hit the target in 2 out of 3 shots. Find the probability of the target being hit at all when
they both try. (May-2015-OLD)
Solution:

Define the events,

A : Person A hits the target

B : Person B hits the target

P(A) = , P(B) =

Events A and B are independent

Probability that the target is hit at all when they both try

( ∪ )= ( )+ ( )− ( ). ( ) = + -( × ) =

2 In a box, 100 bulbs are supplied out of which 10 bulbs have defects of type A, 5 bulbs 3
have defects of type B and 2 have defects of both types. Find tthe
he probabilities that a bulb
to be drawn at random has a B type defect under the condition that it has an A type defect
(May-2018-OLD)
Solution:

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BOX OF BULBS
(100 BULBS)

DEFECTS OF DEFECTS OF BOTH TYPES

TYPE A TYPE B DEFECT
(10 BULBS) (5 BULBS) (2 BULBS)

Define the events,

A : Bulbs having type A defect
B : Bulbs having type B defect

P(A) = = 0.1 P(B) = = 0.05 P(A

P(A⋂B) = =0.02

To Find: The
he probabilities that a bulb to be drawn at random has a B type defect
under the condition that it has an A type defect
( ⋂ ) .
P(B/A) = = .
=0.20 = 20%
%
( )
3 Two students x and y work independently on a problem. The probability that x will solve 2
it is 3/4 and the probability that y will solve it is 2/3. What is the probability that problem
will be solved? (Dec-2015-OLD)
Solution:

STUDENTS X AND Y SOLVING THE PROBLEM INDEPENDENTLY

Define the events

A : Student x solve the problem
B : Student y solve the problem

P(A) = , P(B) =

Events A and B are independent

Probability that the problem is solved

( ∪ )= ( )+ ( )− ( ). ( )
= + -( × )
=

4 An urn contains 10 white and 3 black balls, while ano

another
ther urn contains 3 white and 5 7
black balls. Two balls are drawn
rawn from the first urn and put into the second urn and
then a ball is drawn from the latter. What is the probability that it is a white ball?
(Nov-2016-OLD)
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Solution:

There are 3 mutually exclusive and exhaustive events in which 2 balls are transferred
from first urn to second urn.
Define the events,
A : Drawing 2 white
balls from urn I and put
in to urn II
B : Drawing 2 black
balls from urn I and put
in to urn II
C : Drawing 1 white
and 1 black ball from
urn I and put in to urn
II
D : Drawing a white
ball
all from urn II after
transformation of 2
balls from urn I

P(A) = =

P(B) = =

×
P(C) = = =

P(E/A) = = =

P(E/B) = =

P(E/C) = = =

By Law of Total Probability,

P (E) = P (A). P (E/A) + P(B). P (E

(E/B) + P(C). P(E/C)

=( × )+( × )+( × )

=0.4538

5 In producing screws, let A mean “screw too slim” and B “screw too short”. Let 3
PA=0.1and let the conditional probability that a slim screw is also too small be
PB/A=0.2.
0.2. What is the probability that the screw that we pick randomly from the lot
produced will be both too slim and too short?
short?(May-2017-OLD)
Solution:
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SCREW TOO SLIM SCREW TOO SHORT

Define the events,
A :Produced Screws too slim
B :Produced screws too short
P(A) = 0.1, PB/A=0.2

( ∩ )
P(B/A) = ( )
The
he probability that the screw that we pick randomly from the lot produced will be both too
slim and too short is

( ⋂ ) = ( ) P(B/A)
= (0.1).(0.2)
= 0.02
= 2%
6 In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make 30%, 45%, and25%, 4
respectively, of the products. It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%an
3%and
d 2% of the
products made by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now suppose that a finished
product is randomly selected. What is the probability that it is defective?
(May-2016-OLD)
Solution:
Define the events,
B1 : Products made by machine B1;
B2 : Products made by machine B2;
B3: Products made by machine B3;
D : Products being defective

ASSEMBLY PLANT

PRODUCTS MADE PRODUCTS MADE BY PRODUCTS MADE BY

BY MACHINE B1=30% MACHINE B2=45% MACHINE B3=25%
P(B1)=0.30 P(B2)=0.45 P(B3)=0.25

DEFECTIVE PRODUCTS
DEFECTIVE PRODUCTS DEFECTIVE PRODUCTS MADE
MADE BY MACHINE B1=2%
MADE BY MACHINE B2=3% BY MACHINE B3=2%
P(D/B1)=0.02 P(D/B2)=0.03 P(D/B3)=0.02

P(B1) = 30% = 30/100 = 0.30,

P(B2) = 45% = 45/100 = 0.45,,
P(B3) = 25% = 25/100 = 0.25
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P(D/B1) = 2% = 0.02
P(D/B2) = 3% = 0.03
P(D/ B3) = 2% = 0.02
P (D) =?
By Law of Total Probability,
P (D) = P (B1). P (D/ B1) + P (B2). P (D/B2) + P (B3). P (D/ B3)
=(0.30×0.02) + (0.45×0.03) + (0.25×0.02)
=0.0245

7 Assume that the probability that a wafer contains a large particle of contamination is 0.01 3
and that the wafers are independent; that is, the probability that a wafer contains a large
particle is not dependent on the characteristics of any of the other wafers. If 15 wafers are
analyzed, what is the probability that no large particles are found?
(Nov-2019-NEW)
Solution:

WAFER CONTAMINATION
Let be the event that first analyzed wafer contains no large particles of contamination
P( )= 1 - 0.01 = 0.99
Let be the event that second analyzed wafer contains no large particles of
contamination
P( )= 1 - 0.01 = 0.99
Similarly,
P( )=0.99, P( )=0.99, P( )=0.99…………… , P( )=0.99
Since events are independent,

( ⋂ ⋂ ….. ⋂ ) = P ( ) . P ( ) . P ( ) ….. P ( )
=(0.99) (0.99) (0.99)………(0.9
(0.99)………(0.99)
0.99)
=(0
=0.86
=0.8600
TOPIC:4 BAYES’ THEOREM
Statement:
Let B1, B2 and , B3 be mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of a sample space S and
A is any event such that P (A) ± 0 then
( ) ( | )
P(Bi/A) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )
; i = 1,2,3 ; P(Bi ) ± 0
In general,
( ) ( | )
P(Bi/A) = ∑ ( ) ( | ))
; i = 1,2,3,….n ; P(Bi ) ± 0

DESCRIPTIVE QUESTIONS
1 An insurance company insured 2000 bike drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. 4
The probability of an accident involving a bike driver, a car driver and a truck driver is
0.10,0.03
03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What
is the probability that he is a bike driver
driver? (Mar-2021-NEW)
Solution:
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2000 BIKE DRIVERS INSURED 4000 CAR DRIVERS INSURED

6000 TRUCK DRIVERS INSURED

Define the events,

B : Insured person is a Bike driver
C : Insured person is a Car driver
T : Insured person is a Truck driver
A : Insured person meets with an accident

We need to find the probability of the driver who met wi

with
th an accident is a bike driver , if
he has already taken insurance

( ) ( | )
P(B/A) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )

P(B) = = = 0.1667

P(C) = = = 0.3333

P(T)= = = 0.5

P(A/B) =0.10,
P(A/C) =0.03,
P(A/T)= 0.15,

. ×
P(B/A) =
. × . × ( . )×( )

.
=
. . .

.
= = = 0.0163
.
2 Three boxes contain10%, 20% and 30% of defective finger joi joints.
nts. A finger joint is
selected at random which is defective. Determine the probability that it comes from (i) 1st
box (ii) 2nd box (iii) 3rd box(May--2017-OLD)

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Solution:

BOX-I (10%) BOX-II (20%) BOX-III (30%) FINGER JOINTS

Define the events,

I : Selecting the finger joints from box I
II : Selecting the finger joints from box II
III : Selecting the finger joints from box III
D : Finger joint is defective

P(I) =1/3;P(II) = 1/3;P(III) =1/3

P(D/I) = 10% = 10/100 = 0.10
P(D/II) = 20% = 20/100 = 0.20
P(D/III) = 30% =30/100 =0.30

(i) The probability that the defective finger joint comes from box I

( ) ( | ) × .
P(I/D) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) (
= = = 0.17
) ( | ) × . × . × .

(ii) The probability that the defective finger joint comes from box II
( ) ( | ) × .
P(II/D) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )
= = = 0.34
× . × . × .

(iii) The probability that the defective finger joint comes from box II
IIII
( ) ( | ) × .
P(III/D) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )
= = = 0.5
( ) ( | ) × . × . × .

3 A company has two plants to manufacture hydraulic machine. Plat I manufactures 70% of 3
the hydraulic machines and plant II manufactures 30%. At plant I, 80% of hydraulic
machines are rated standard quality and at plant II, 90% of hydraulic machines are rated
standard quality. A machine is picked up at random and is found to be of standard quality.
What is the chance that it has come from plant I? (May-2015-OLD)
Solution:
Define the events,

I : Hydraulic machines manufacture

factured by plant I;
II : Hydraulic machines manufactured
factured by plant II;
S : Machine being standard quality;

P(I) = 0.70, P(II) = 0.30, P(

P(S/I) = 0.80 , P(S/II) = 0.90, P(I/S) = ?

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MANUFACTURING
PLANTS OF
HYDRAULIC
MACHINES

PLANT I PLANT II
MANUFACTURES 70% MANUFACTURES 80%
P(I)=0.70 P(II)=0.80

STANDARD QUALITY STANDARD QUALITY

HYDRAULIC HYDRAULIC
MACHINES=80% MACHINES=90%
P(S/I)=0.80 P(S/II)=0.90

Using Bayes’ Theorem,

( ) ( | ) . × .
P(I/S) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )
= ( . ) ( . )
= 0.6746
× . × .

4 A diagnostic test has a probability of 0.95 of giving a positive result when applied to a 7
person suffering from a certain disease, and a probability 0.10 of giving a (fal
(false)
se) positive
when applied to a non –sufferer.
sufferer. It is estimated that 0.5% of the population are sufferers.
Suppose that the test is now administered to a person about whom we have no relevant
information relating to the disease (apart from the fact that he/s he/she
he comes from this
population). Calculate the following probabilities:
(a)That the test result will be positive;
(b)That, given a positive result, the person is a sufferer;
(c)That, given a negative result, the person is a non – sufferer;
(d)That the personn will be misclassified. (May-2018-OLD)
Solution:

Define the events,

T : A diagnostic test is positive
: A diagnostic test is negative
S : A person is a sufferer of disease
: A person is a non-sufferer
sufferer of disease
P(T/S) = 0.95
P(T/ ) = 0.1
P(S ) = 0.5% = 0.5/100 = 0.005
P( ) = 1- P(S) = 1- 0.005 = 0.995

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(a) Probability that the test result will be positive

=Patient is Sufferer and Test is positive + Patient is Non
Non-sufferer
sufferer and Test
Tes is
positive
PATIENT IS SUFFERER
AND THE TEST IS
POSITIVE

THE TEST
RESULT IS
POSITIVE PATIENT IS
NON-SUFFERER
AND
THE TEST IS
POSITIVE

Using Total Probability Theorem,

P(T) = P(S) P(T/S) + P( ) P(T/ )

= (0.005×0.95) + (0.995×0.1)
= 0.00475 + 0.0995
= 0.10425
(b) Probability that given a positive rresult, the person is a sufferer ,

Using Bayes’ theorem,

( ) ( / )
P(S/T) = ( ) ( | ) ( ( ) ( / )

. × . .
=( . × . ) ( . × )
= .
= 0.0456

(c) Probability
ty that, given a negative result, the person is a non – sufferer;

Using Conditional Probability and Multiplication Theorem of Probability,

( / ′)
P( / ) = ( )
( ⋂ )
{ Using, P(A/B) = ( )
and P(A⋂B)= P(A) P(B/A)}

. ×( . )
=
.

.
= = 1.0602
.

(d) Probability that the person will be misclassified

=Person is non-sufferer
sufferer and diagnosed positive + Person is sufferer and
diagnosed negative
= P( ⋂ T ) + P( ⋂ S)
= P( ) P(T/ ) + P(S P(S) P(T/S)
0.995×0.1) + ( 0.005×0.95)
= (0.995×0.1)

= 0.10425

5 State Bayes’ theorem. In a bolt factory, three machines A, B and C manufacture 25%, 7
35%and 40% of the total product re respectively.
spectively. Of these outputs 5%, 4% and 2%
respectively, are defective bolts. A bolt is picked up at random and found to be defective.
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What are the probabilities that it was manufactured by machines A, B and C?

(Dec-2015-OLD)
Solution:

Define the events,

A : Bolts manufactured
factured by machine A;
B : Bolts manufactured by machine B;
C : Bolts manufactured
factured by machine C;
D : Bolts being defective

P(A) =0.25, P(B) =0.35, P(C)

C) =0.40
P(D/A) =0.05 P(D/B) =0.04 P(D/C) =0.02
P (A/D) =? P (B/D) =? P(C/D) =?

PRODUCTION OF
BOLT FACTORY
MACHINES

A PRODUCES 25% B PRODUCES 35% C PRODUCES 40%

P(A)=0.25 P(B)=0.35 P(C)=0.40

DEFECTIVE BOLTS 0DEFECTIVE BOLTS DEFECTIVE BOLTS

PRODUCED BY PRODUCED BY PRODUCED BY
MACHINE A =5% MACHINE B =4% MACHINE C =2%
P(D/A)=0.05 P(D/B)=0.04 P(D/C)=0.02

Using Bayes’ Theorem,

( ) ( | ) . × .
P(A/D) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )
= = 0.3623
0.36
( ) ( | ) ( . × . ) ( . × . ) ( . × . )

( ) ( | ) . × .
P(B/D) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )
= ( . ) ( . ) ( .
= 0.4058
( ) ( | ) × . × . × . )

( ) ( | ) . × .
P(C/D) = ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | ) ( ) ( | )
=( . × . ) ( . × . ) ( . × .
=0.2319
)

6 State Baye’s theorem. A microchip company has two machines that produce the chips. 7
Machine I produces 65% of the chips, but 5% of its chips are defective. Machine II
produces 35% of the chips and 15% of its chips are defective. A chip is selected at
random and found to be defective. What is the probability that it came from Machine I?
(Nov-2016-OLD) , (Nov-2019-NEW
NEW)
Solution:

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MICROCHIP
COMPANY
PRODUCING CHIPS

MACHINE I MACHINE II
PRODUCES 65% PRODUCES 35%
P(I)=0.65 P(II)=0.35

DEFECTIVE DEFECTIVE
CHIPS=5% CHIPS=15%
P(D)=0.05 P(D)=0.15

Define the events,

I : Chips made by machine I;
II : Chips made by machine II;
D :The chips being defective;

P(I) = 65% = 0.65, P(II) = 35% = 0.35, P(D/I) = 5% =0.05 , P(D/II) = 15% =0.15
= ,
P(I/D) = ?
Using Bayes’ Theorem,

( ) ( / ) . × . .
P(I/D) = ( ) ( / ) ( ) ( | )
= ( . ) ( .
= = 0.3823
× . × . ) .

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