‭8.

2 One-Sample z interval for p (1 proportion z interval)‬

‭ onfidence intervals and significance tests are based on the sampling distributions of statistics. That is, both use‬
C
‭probability to say what would happen if we applied the inference method many times. In this unit, we focus on the‬
‭details of constructing intervals and testing claims about a‬‭population proportion.‬
^
‭ ecall: p = true proportion of success in a population (parameter);‬‭𝑝‬‭= sample proportion of success (statistics) that‬
R
‭estimates the population parameter, p.‬
^ ^
‭p‬‭→ parameter‬ ‭𝑝‬‭→ statistic, where‬‭𝑝‬ = ‭‬ ‭𝑛‬ =
‭𝑥‬ ‭#‬‭‭𝑜
‬ 𝑓‬‭‭𝑠‬ 𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠‬‭‭𝑖‬ 𝑛‬‭‭𝑠‬ 𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒‬
‭𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙‬‭‭# ‬ ‬‭‭𝑜
‬ 𝑓‬‭‭𝑜
‬ 𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛‬

‭Sampling Distribution‬‭(‬‭all‬‭combinations of possible‬‭outcomes)‬

^
‭‬ C
● ‭ enter:‬ ‭𝑝‬ ‭is an unbiased estimator of p‬
‭●‬ ‭Spread:‬ σ ^ ‭is an independent estimator of σ provided that the sample is less than 10% of the population to‬
‭𝑝‬

‭𝑝‬(‭1‬−‭𝑝‬)
‭ensure independence.‬ σ ^ = ‭‬ ‭𝑛‬
‭𝑝‬
‭●‬ S‭ hape: If n is large enough then BOTH np and n(1-p)‬≥ ‭10 then it’s safe to assume the distribution is‬
‭approximately normal (z-dist’n).‬
^
‭NOTE: To standardize‬‭𝑝‬‭→ use a z-statistic‬

‭ onfidence Intervals for One-Sample z Interval for a Population Proportion, p‬

C
‭Choose an SRS of size n from a large population that contains an unknown proportion p of successes. An approximate‬
‭level C confidence interval for p is:‬

*
‭𝐶‬‭%‬‭‬‭𝐶𝐼‬ = ‭𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑒‬‭‬‭±‬‭‬‭𝑧‬ (‭𝑆𝐸‬) = ‭‬‭____________________________________‬

^
‭Where‬‭𝑝‬‭is the sample proportion of success, z* is the critical value for the standard normal Normal curve with area C‬

‭between –z* and z*,‬‭𝑧‬

*
( ^
‭𝑝(‭
^
‬ 1‬−‭𝑝)‬
‭𝑛‬ ) = ‭𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛‬‭‬‭𝑜𝑓‬‭‭𝑒‬ 𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟‬‭, and SE is the standard error of the statistics.‬

S‭ tandard Error → when the standard deviation of a statistic is estimated from data, the result is called the standard error‬
‭of the statistic.‬

‭The 4 Steps‬‭:‬
‭1.‬ ‭Identify the population of interest and parameter.‬
‭2.‬ ‭State the procedure: 1-one z interval for p‬
‭3.‬ ‭Check to see if all conditions are met:‬
‭●‬ ‭RANDOM: Data are a SRS of population‬
‭●‬ ‭NORMALITY: n is large enough to assume distribution is approximately normal‬‭→‬
^ ^
‭n‬‭𝑝‬≥ ‭10 and n(1-‬‭𝑝‬‭)‬≥ ‭10‬
 ‭●‬ ‭INDEPENDENCE: Independent observations; population is at least 10(n) to ensure independence.‬
^
‭4.‬ ‭Compute the interval:‬‭𝑝‬ ± ‭𝑧‬
*
( ^
‭𝑝(‭
^
‬ 1‬−‭𝑝)‬
‭𝑛‬ ) ‭Calculator Steps: STAT‬‭→‬‭TESTS‬‭→‬‭A: 1-PropZInt‬

‭Recall:‬
‭CI %‬ ‭z*‬

‭90%‬ ‭1.645‬

‭95%‬ ‭1.960‬

‭99%‬ ‭2.576‬

‭5.‬ C‭ onclusion: Interpret the interval in context of the problem. For example, we are‬‭C‬‭% that the true‬‭proportion of‬
‭__________ falls between ____ and ____.‬
‭Example:‬ ‭The Gallup Youth Survey asked a random sample‬‭of 439 U.S. teens aged 13 to 17 whether they thought young‬
‭people should wait to have sex until marriage. Of the sample, 246 said “YES.” Construct and interpret a 95% confidence‬
‭interval for the proportion of all teen who would say “YES” if asked this question.‬
‭●‬ ‭Identify the population of interest and parameter‬‭:‬

‭●‬ ‭Procedure‬‭:‬

‭●‬ ‭Check conditions‬‭:‬

‭1)‬

‭2)‬

‭3)‬

‭*All conditions are met. Safe to procedure with inference.*‬

‭●‬ ‭Calculate‬‭(1 prop z-interval in Calculator)‬

‭●‬ ‭Conclusion:‬

‭Example:‬
‭What sample size would have been necessary to estimate p within ±0.05 at the 99% confidence level?‬