@ @ The International Maintenance Seminar 2002 MIDTH Institute” Expectation to Future Developments of Systematic Maintenance. by Erik Reinhardt Lecture 12-01| @ The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 MIDTH Institute” Table of Content 1. Introduction... 2. Historical Development. 3. Developments in Society... 4. The technological Development ........000:0 5. Outlook. ei Aw w& Table of Figures Figure | : Expectations... Figure 2 : Robert Storm Petersen... Figure 3: Development areas Figure 4 : Topics .. Figure 5 : Developments in Society... Figure 6 : Technological Development. Figure 7 : Outlook Figure 8 : Outlook Figure 9 : Finish... Expectanons tothe Future Development 1 Re IMS 2002ain © The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 MIDTH Institute” 1. Introduction Some sixty seventy years ago the Danish humorist Robert Storm Petersen said the famous words that it is extremely difficult to make predictions ~ especially when the predictions are about the future. Keeping this in mind, it takes, [ think, much daring of the speaker and a great amount of indulgence from the auditorium to carry on with the present topic. However ~ presupposing the indulgence ~ how will the area of service and systematic maintenance on cement plants develop, which factors govem this development, and how to keep one’s organisation on the edge of it? In our approaci it seems logical to expect that some indication of the trend of development may be found through extrapolating from the known historical development, Likewise, one may expect the general development within the society to exercise influence and, finally, the development within other more advanced industries. may also constitute a source of, information, 2. Historical Development \—— Traditionally the cement plants carried out all of their maintenance- and repair activities by themselves, Help were called upon from the outside, i.e. mainly from the equipment suppliers, only on very rare occasions. This strategy or practise implied that the plants had to be in possession of all necessary materiel- and human resources. So, the cement plants became self-sufficient, implying large capital tie-ups and a huge organisations which, when evaluated with to-days eyes, probably would be considered unacceptable in most places. However. the above-described traditional picture is or has been a well-known real or historical fact all over the world. It derives from situations where small societies were build around and based upon the activities of the local cement plant and where global infrastructures in general were relatively weak, ‘The technological development combined with a general improvement of infrastructures caused a diversification in the activities of trade and industry. Parts and servives in demand Expectations tothe Faure Development 3 Be INS 2002MIDTH The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 Institute” became available on attractive conditions not only from local supply but now also from alternative and often even from foreign suppliers too. These new circumstances characterised by increased competition in supply made the cement plant cost-conscious, in the initial phase especially as regards purchase. Economics and cost- consciousness were to become very important parameters behind the development, Soon, however, the cement plants came to feel the competition on their home market sales. Increased social acti’ jes and especially the derived improvement of infrastructures made the home market concept to loose some of its traditional importance. The market was now offered cement from suppliers who were not local in the traditional sense, Consequently, all the market became cost-conscious and smpeting. In a competing market, however, ability 10 maintain and expand the market-share becomes @ condition of survival and a reputation of being a stable and trustworthy supplier of quality products a necessity. This development forced the cement plants to take a somewhat different attitude towards plant concept, operation and organisation, as well as towards maintenance of the installations. The organisation is to control the situation, not the other way round! The cement plant can safeguard its ability to deliver in two ways. The traditional way was to operate with large stores of finish or semi-finish products and spase parts, This, however, is a very costly solution, and given the possibilities of to day it has, in general, also become totally uneconomic. The altemative way is 10 consciously secure that the installation is, in fact, available for production whenever production is intended. ‘The organisation must initiate and carry out planned activities in order to secure and maintain the installation’s availability. Where, earlier, the primary maintenance target was to effectively repair any fault disrupting the production; it is now to avoid the very emergence of such faults, Exgpectations to the Fuure Development 4 ERe— IMS 2002« The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 MIDTH Institute” In the historical chronology we are now entering the period in which the transition trom corrective maintenance into time-based maintenance and further on into condition-based maintenance happens. The intensified competition is being counteracted by drastic reductions in the number of employees, typically by closing of the plant’s workshop functions, and consequential out-sourcing of maintenance- and repair activities, As a consequence of this the remaining maintenance organisation becomes more and more occupied by planning. Basing its decisions upon risk assessments made by. specialist providers of such services the maintenance function make arrangements with contractor companies to have each specific job done at the time specified in the general maintenance plan. The general maintenance plan also sets the time for purchase and deliverance of spares, tools and materials. Globalisation of the cement industry has gained momentum during the latest decade, A relative small number of companies, commonly known as “the seven sisters”, have acquired production facilities worldwide. The biggest — Holderbank — operates in 70 countries on six continents with an annual production capacity of 90 million tonnes of cement, which is app. 6% of the World’s total production in 1999, When Holderbank) proclaims that they base their strength on “focus on cement. cost and market leadership” this, undoubtedly, indicates the trend. The global competition will be further intensified and the industry as a whole will have to concentrate on core business and cost reduction. When extrapolating from the above-mentioned historical chronology it seems probable. valid at least for smaller and non-global cement companies, that further concentration on core business may lead {0 a continuation of the out-sourcing process. Where, previously, the execution of specific, well-defined and well-delimited jobs were given to organisations outside the cement plant it is to be expected that the maintenance area as a whole may be out- sourced, Only superior reporting and budgeting will remain in the plant’s organisation, Expectations to the Future Development ERe IMS 2002MIDTH The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 Institute” Parallel to the above-mentioned globalisation of the cement production globalisation of maintenance may also come above. International companies will merge which will be based on large-scale operation advantages, specialisation and standardisation, For a price these companies will take over the total responsibility of maintenance on a number of cement plants. In fact, this development is already in its initial phase. Assuming a natural competition about these tasks, the advantages for the cement plant will be optimal ic. minimal maintenance costs, sale budgeting and risk assessments as well as reduced personnel obligations. Further redemption of compensations ete. in case of non: compliance with the agreed level of supply could be regulated according to the rules of the contract, 3. Developments in Society + Hardly any other factors than the constantly growing energy prices, concern over pollution of the environment and consciousness of the limitations of nature given resources have chasacterised the political agenda during the latest decade. The impact on the cement industr has been significant. Just consider the transformation from wet to dry process, from tube mills to roller mills, the introduction of dedusting equipment of various designs all over in the process lines, and the addition of fly-ash and blast furnace slag to the cement, Parallel to this have the production units become larger and larger. Naturally, the maintenance requirements change with the changes in the process equipment The long and stiff wet process kilns with many supports were very sensitive towards misalignment and needed, therefore, very much maintenance attention on this. However, with the pre-heating and calcining process moved to the stationary part of the installation the rotary kilns have been made much shorter, typically, with three or four supports and much more flexible making them somewhat less sensitive towards misalignment. In continuation of this development the two-base kiln has lately been re-introduced. Because a two-base kiln cannot be misaligned in the traditional sense, the demand or requirement on maintenance is significantly reduced without in any way to endanger the kiln availabi Expeciations to the Future Development 6 Re ~ IMS 2002 oeThe International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 MmIDTH Institute” Opposite, ina way, with the development within the comminution process. The paramount process economy gain achieved when changing from the technological relatively simple tube mill design to the somewhat more complicated roller mill implies an increased maintenance attention, A long series of environmental precautions have been introduced in the legislation of many countries, The awareness of many nature given resources being available only in limited amounts and that others need to be protected against pollution have and will (o an increasing degree make demands on the cement plant’s processing equipment and on its condition, In this connection, just think about reduction of No, and So, ete. in the flue-gas. International agreements have been made through the United Nations defining limit values to the emission to the atmosphere etc. of a number of chemical substances. Non-compliance with these rules will incur compukory payment of so-called “green taxes” or duties. This development may very well result in priorities completely different from those we know to day. 4. The technological Development _| ‘The very rapid technological development, which has taken place especially within high- technology fields such as electronics, information technology, communication and materials technology opens up completely new possibilities, and new possibilities create new demands. This development has had @ great influence on the methods and possibilities of maintenance where especially the measurements: and analysis parts of condition based maintenance programmes seem to have prospered. And the development continues — only fantasy seems limit the possibilities A few examples should be mentioned here: Integration of a laser in a theodolite has made it possible to fix a position on the moving surface on a rotating tyre and, subsequently, by traditional surveyor methods to calculate the space co-ordinates of that position, This represents a great refinement of the kiln alignment Expectations to the Praure Developnent 7 Ete MS 2002MIDTH The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 Institute method, because it allows the kiln alignment investigation to be carried on the kiln when it is in normal operating situation and completely without any disturbance of the production The Intemet represents a revolution in communication. It is an inexpensive and worldwide communication standard with almost complete coverage, With only simple hardware- and software requitements it allows any two computers to get into contact with each other, the Internet-technology is obvious for development of long-distance supervision systems, AS part of condition based maintenance programmes of big mill gear unit’s long-distance supervision and diagnostic systems communicating over the Intemet are available on the market. The gear units are equipped with transducers for load, temperature and vibrations ete, and the transducers are connected to @ computer via some kind of datacollector, Data are processed in the computer and the result in condensed form, subsequently and at agreed intervals, send to the supervising organisation, In this way the expert analyst can monitor the conditions of the gear unit much more closely than earlier through his maybe yearly visits. Early warning of a damaging development ensures time to arrange for supply of spare parts and planning of repair. Outlook — Yom tenavenn A Definitely. the near future will show a continued pressure on cost-reduction, and the continuing technological development will bring new tools or means to achieve this goal. The field of maintenance will still be a field of development and change. The equipment suppliers will be greally influenced by these demands, In order to satisfy the market's requirements of more effective equipment with high availability and lower maintenance costs there is hardly any doubt that exacily these parameters will be very sible. important and central in the equipment suppliers” efforts to render themselves Expectations to the Future Development 8 ERe — IMS 2002 @ @ @IDTH The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 Gs Institute” @ = - - Figure 1 : Expectations Figure 2: Robert Storm Petersen Expectations fore Pune Levelopmient 9 Re thi 2002Gils MIDTH The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 Institute” Figure 3 : Development areas Figure 4: Topics Expectations to the Future Development 10 Ete - IMS 2002fiism IDTH The International Maintenance Seminar - 2002 Institute” Figure 8: Outlook Figure 9 : Finish Expectations to the Future Development 12 Re ~ IMS 2002 eee