Professional Documents
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MARCH 2024
This material is for information purposes only, and not an offer or solicitation to enter into a transaction. The information provided herein is intended to inform you of certain
investment products and services offered by J.P. Morgan’s private banking business, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. This material is intended for your personal use and should not be
circulated to any other person without our permission. Any use, distribution or duplication by anyone other than the recipient is prohibited. The views and strategies described herein may
not be suitable for all investors and are subject to investment risks. Certain opinions, estimates, investment strategies and views expressed in this document constitute our judgment
based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. This material should not be regarded as research or as a J.P. Morgan research report. Investors may get
back less than they invested. The information contained herein should not be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. More complete information is
available, including product profiles, which discusses risks, benefits, liquidity and other matters of interest. For more information on any of the trade ideas and products illustrated herein,
please contact your J.P. Morgan representative. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Please read the Important Information section at the end of this presentation.
INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUE
Executive Summary
• Our goal is help you define the long term strategic asset allocation that will achieve
your long term goals.
Central Banks, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Pension Funds, Insurance Companies, and Endowments and Foundations
around the world use our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs) to define, review and analyse strategic
asset allocations and make policy level decisions.
We formulate our LTCMAs as part of a deeply researched proprietary process that draws on quantitative and qualitative inputs as
well as insights from experts across J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Our own multi-asset investment approach relies heavily on
our LTCMAs: the assumptions form a critical foundation of our framework for designing, building and analysing solutions aligned
with our clients’ specific needs.
Analytical Methodology
▪ Defined risk and return projections over 15-year horizon for more than 60 asset and strategy
classes.
95th percentile*
Simulated historical returns***
($MM)
Most probable Asset allocation expectations from 2006
50th percentile*
asset values*
5th percentile* 565
550
518
475
450
436
399
365
350
334 329
305 306
279 286
254 266 293
250 248 253
231 232 233 262
210 216 205
190 201 196 191
175 188 178 181
172 163 168 170 163 172
150 155 152 159 147 155
139 132 142 138 133 140
122 114 115 124 123 123 124 115 121 127
107
94 96 98 94 102 112 106 110
50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Morgan Asset Projection System (“MAPS”) regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in
nature, do not reflect actual or estimated investment vehicle results and are not guarantees of future results. The results may vary with each use and over time.
Note: This is a projection used for illustrative purposes only and does not represent investment in any particular vehicle. References to future asset values are not promises or even estimates of actual returns
you may experience. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
* “Most probable asset values,” denoted by the darkly shaded area, indicates the range in and around the 50th percentile. The “50th percentile” indicates the middle value of the entire range of probable
asset values. The “95th percentile” value indicates that 95% of the probable asset values will be equal to or below that number; the “5th percentile” value indicates that 5% of the probable asset values will be
equal to or below that number. Another way of looking at it is 90% of the probable asset values will be between those two figures.
** 2006 Asset Allocation expectations assume annual rebalancing, no taxes, and no cash flows.
*** Simulated historical returns are calculated by assigning a relevant index to each asset class and blending the returns of those indices according to the asset allocation, which remained fixed for the entire
period and assumed monthly rebalancing. Results do not reflect actual asset allocation or performance of any portfolio or account over this period. All returns are based on index data. Indices used: S&P
500 Index, MSCI EAFE Index, HFRI Fund of Funds Diversified Index, Cambridge Associates US Buyouts and Growth Equity Index (proxied with S&P 500 Index from Sep – Dec 2022), Bloomberg Barclays
US Aggregate Bond Index.
Our LTCMAs define risk and return projections for more than 60 asset and strategy classes. Just to give you a feel of the
projections for some of the areas of the market, we have listed a selection below.
30%
25.0%
24.6%
25%
16.7%
20%
14.3%
15%
9.5%
9.3%
10%
8.5%
7.4%
5% 2.1%
4.3%
0%
0.9% 0.1% -0.1%
-3.0%
-5%
U.S. Fund Global U.S. Fund Global Bonds U.S. Core U.S. Non-core Global Private Equity Global Venture Capital Hedge Funds
Equities Real Estate Real Estate
Equities 35 35
Alternatives 55 55
Fixed Income/Cash 10 10
100
¹ Summary Assumptions are for informational purposes only and calculated based on the Firm’s annual Capital Market Assumptions to reflect blended summary allocation statistics weighted by asset class. The Summary Assumptions for return
represent the pre-tax average of the Monte Carlo return simulations for the relevant asset classes. These Summary Assumptions are not a guarantee, prediction or projection of future results; rather, they explain the assumptions used to create the
Wealth Projection ranges in the pages that follow. All statistics are pre-tax. See “Understanding Long-term Estimates” for additional assumptions.
These are J.P. Morgan Strategic Model Allocations and are presented for illustrative purposes only. Your actual portfolio will be constructed based upon investments for which you are eligible and based upon your personal investment
requirements and circumstances. Consult your advisor regarding the minimum asset size necessary to fully implement these allocations.
Source: J.P. Morgan Private Bank, March 2024.
J.P. Morgan offers specialized financial services through legal entities licensed for specific activities. The type of account you open, your investment objectives, and other factors will ultimately determine the range of products and services of which
you can avail yourself. Not all accounts or services can provide a strategic investment plan.
-20%
-40%
-60%
Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source date: March 2024.
The presented information reflects historical index data and does not represent actual investments, actual transactions or historical returns in the accounts of J.P. Morgan clients.
Because the asset allocations were selected after the testing period and with the benefit of hindsight, the hypothetical data shown may be higher or lower than the returns of a portfolio that would have actually been
recommended during the time period shown. Indices are not investment products and may not be considered for investment. This represents simulated past performance and past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future performance.
Frequency of Returns
Frequency of loss, 1 year rolling 0.0% 16.6% 21.2%
Frequency of loss, 3 year rolling 0.0% 4.3% 13.5%
Frequency of loss, 5 year rolling 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
% Beating inflation, 3 year rolling 38.2% 79.1% 77.8%
% Beating inflation, 5 year rolling 35.5% 95.7% 83.1%
Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source date: November 2023.
The presented information reflects historical index data and does not represent actual investments, actual transactions or historical returns in the accounts of J.P. Morgan clients.
Because the asset allocations were selected after the testing period and with the benefit of hindsight, the hypothetical data shown may be higher or lower than the returns of a portfolio that would have actually been
recommended during the time period shown. Indices are not investment products and may not be considered for investment. This represents simulated past performance and past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future performance.
NOVEMBER 2007– FEBRUARY 2009: CREDIT / ECONOMIC CRISIS5 FEBRUARY 2020 – MARCH 2020: 2020 STOCK MARKET CRASH6
20
18.7
16.0
15
13.5
13.0
10.6
10 9.8 9.7
8.5 8.7
5.7 7.7 7.5 7.8
6.8 7.0
6.5 5.1
5 5.4 5.6 4.1
5.0 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.5 2.8
5.4 4.0 3.9 3.9
4.7 4.6 3.6 3.3 2.5
4.2 4.0 2.9
3.4 3.6 2.2 2.3
3.2
2.5 2.1 2.0
0 1.2
IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Morgan Asset Projection System (“MAPS”) regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do
not reflect actual or estimated investment vehicle results and are not guarantees of future results. The results may vary with each use and over time. Furthermore, the material is incomplete without
reference to, and should be viewed in conjunction with, the verbal briefing provided by J.P. Morgan representative. For further information, see page entitled “Understanding long-term estimates.”
¹ Calculations based upon assumptions listed above and no tax applied. An assumed 2.5% inflation rate is applied to the annual spending. For allocation details, see asset allocation page.
² “Most probable wealth values,” denoted by the darkly shaded area, indicates the range in and around the 50th percentile. The “50th percentile” indicates the middle wealth value of the entire range of probable
wealth values. The “95th percentile” wealth value indicates that 95% of the probable wealth values will be equal to or below that number; the “5th percentile” wealth value indicates that 5% of the probable wealth
values will be equal to or below that number. CVaR here is defined as the average allocation value in the worst 5% of the simulations.
In reviewing this material, please understand that all references to expected return are not promises, or even estimates, of actual returns one may achieve. The assumptions are not
based on specific products and do not reflect fees, such as investment management fees, oversight fees, transaction costs or other expenses that could reduce return. They simply show
what the long-term return should be, according to our best estimates of current and equilibrium conditions. Also note that actual performance may be affected by the expertise of the
person who actually manages these investments, both in picking individual securities and possibly adjusting the mix periodically to take advantage of asset class undervaluations and
overvaluations caused by market trends.
For the purpose of this analysis volatility is defined as a statistical measure of the dispersion of return for a given allocation and is measured as the standard deviation of the allocation’s
arithmetic return. The Sharpe ratio is a return/risk measure, where the return (the numerator) is defined as the incremental annual return of an investment over the risk free rate. Risk (the
denominator) is defined as the standard deviation (volatility) of the allocation’s return less the risk free rate. The risk free rate utilized is J.P. Morgan’s long-term assumption for Cash.
Correlation is a statistical measure of the degree to which the movements of two variables, in this case asset class returns, are related. Correlation can range from -1 to 1 with 1 indicating
that the returns of two assets move directionally in concert with one another, i.e. they behave in the same way during the same time. A correlation of 0 indicates that the returns move
independently of each other and -1 indicates that they move in the opposite direction.
Important information
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material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get J.P. Morgan acts for its own account.
back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future
results. Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are
Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our
decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g. portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and
equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are forward looking views in order to meet the portfolio's investment objective.
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considerations.
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this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to
change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the
event that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein
may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in
other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected
results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will
vary depending on specific circumstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered
as guarantees or predictions of future events.
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