Cristian David Rodriguez Martinez

Spring 2024

TEP4930 - Thesis work description

Potential of Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) on Restoring
Land Affected by Illegal Cultivation in Colombia
Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) are a critical component of climate change mitigation,
characterized by their ability to remove carbon dioxide (CDR) from the atmosphere. They are
called to be essential in stabilizing the growing gap between current emissions and the drastic
emission reductions required. In such instances, promising NETs, such as natural forest regrowth
(NFR) and bioenergy coupled with CCS (BECCS), face a key constraint: Land availability.
Competition with food production, biodiversity conservation efforts, and other complex socio-
economic conditions, such as poverty alleviation, represent the main challenges for NET's large-
scale deployment. Our analysis addresses this challenge by researching the untapped opportunity
of using land affected by illegal cultivation. As these territories do not compete with food
production, they offer a perfect case study to evaluate the effectiveness of NET strategies in
promoting sustainable development. Cocaine production in Colombia fuels a complex socio-
economic crisis that causes severe environmental consequences, such as deforestation leading to
biodiversity loss. This topic intersects climate mitigation with socio-economic development and
nature conservation, especially considering Colombia hosts tropical forests with unique species
and various indigenous people.

The previous thesis project set the background information, data collection, and methodological
framework for deploying land-based NETs in Colombia's areas of illegal cultivation. We
acknowledged and mapped the area affected, covering 230,00 ha by 2022. Recognizing that due
to its illicit status, most coca is grown in scattered small areas instead of large monocultures. In
2019, over 60% of coca fields were smaller than one hectare, leading to deforestation and
fragmentation in primary forests. In this context, NFR may be considered the most suitable option
since it does not need human intervention and aligns with climate change mitigation and nature
restoration efforts. Nevertheless, it lacks economic incentives for the local communities.
On the other hand, coca cultivation tends to concentrate in certain regions known as Productive
hotspots. These hotspots account for about 40% of coca cultivation in 2022, present a most likely
monoculture pattern design to maximize the yield, and are strategically situated in national border
areas, with access to rivers and developed infrastructure facilitating the efficient movement of
supplies and finished products. The productive hotspots characterized by a continuing presence of
coca cultivation hold high rates of soil degradation, deteriorating the natural forest regrowth (NFR)
potential. Consequently, our analysis identifies the productive hotspot areas as the territories
proposed to allocate bioenergy crops. Our findings were depicted by comparing the climate change
mitigation potential through two scenarios, the first evaluating the carbon uptake using just natural
forest regrowth (NFR) and the second scenario an integrated approach that combined NFR and
bioenergy in the mentioned productive hotspots.
Cristian David Rodriguez Martinez
Spring 2024
In this master's thesis, we aim to enhance these analyses by incorporating the avoided life-cycle
emissions from coca cultivation, processing, and transport as the reference case scenario. We will
analyze other negative emissions technologies (NET) scenarios, such as bioenergy coupled with
CCS (BECCS) and afforestation, with a focus on the carbon sequestration potential of replacing
coca cultivation with legal cash crops (e.g., cocoa and palm oil) in the areas previously destined
for bioenergy crops. If time permits, we will assess the deployment of agroforestry techniques,
which will be the fifth and final scenario. All scenarios will be spatially allocated, considering the
terrain's characteristics to hold the respective scenarios, aiming to find the best strategies possible
considering the vast diversity of climates, soils, and ecosystems within the geographical context
of Colombia. To conclude, the limitations, trade-offs, and synergies for each scenario will be
evaluated to explore the potential socio-economic implications of coca cultivation replacement
with the scenarios considered for local communities.

The following tasks are to be considered:

1. Evaluate the environmental impact of cocaine production by examining the life-cycle

emissions from coca cultivation, processing, and transportation as the reference case
scenario.
2. Acknowledge terrain characteristics and spatially allocate strategies based on the optimal
conditions for each scenario.
3. Create a new scenario that estimates BECCS climate change mitigation potential.
4. Create a new scenario that estimates climate change mitigation potentials from
Afforestation strategies.
5. Create a new scenario that estimates climate change mitigation potential by applying
agroforestry techniques enhancing afforestation.
6. Evaluate the limitations, trade-offs, and synergies of each scenario to explore their socio-
economic implications.
7. Produce high-quality figures, maps, and tables to summarize the key results.
8. Interpret the results and identify and discuss hotspots, bottlenecks, and possible
improvements.
9. Write a report in the form of a scientific article (Introduction, Methods, Results and
Discussion, Conclusions).