El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Wed, 10-Apr-2024

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring natural phenomenon characterised

by fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the
atmosphere, which have a major influence on climate patterns in various parts of the world.

Overview
El Niño and La Niña are the oceanic components while the Southern Oscillation is the
atmospheric counterpart, thus giving rise to the term El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Though
ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three phases - El Niño, La Niña and Neutral.
El Niño, meaning “boy child” in Spanish, was first used some centuries ago by fishermen in
Peru and Ecuador to refer to the unusually warm waters that reduced their catch just before
Christmas. The opposite of El Niño is La Niña, which means “little girl” and refers to the
large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the same region, coupled with a
reversal of the atmospheric conditions.
Monitoring and outlook of ENSO conditions is primarily based on Sea Surface Temperatures
(SSTs) anomalies (computed relative to a base period of 30 years) exceeding pre-defined
thresholds in four geographic regions of the equatorial Pacific. Positive SST anomalies,
above a given threshold, are usually indicative of an El Niño (ENSO warm phase) leading to
weakening of easterly winds. The negative anomalies are associated with La Niña (ENSO

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cool phase) and the easterly winds become stronger. During the Neutral phase tropical Pacific
SSTs are generally close to average.
El Niño and La Niña typically develop in northern hemisphere’s spring-summer and peak in
winter. The oscillation between ENSO warm phase (El Niño) to neutral or cold (La Niña)
conditions occurs on average every three to five years, while also ranging from two to seven
years. El Niño can last up to 18 months and La Niña up to three years. The last multi-year La
Niña event, began in September 2020 and prolonged into early 2023 - first "triple dip" La
Niña of the 21st century.
Impact
El Niño/La Niña can have widespread impacts on climate and weather patterns, with changes
in temperature and rainfall in various parts of the world and it is the dominant feature of
climate variability on inter-annual timescales. Scientific progress on the understanding and
modelling ENSO has improved prediction skills within a range of one to six or more months
in advance, helping society to prepare for the associated hazards such as heavy rains, floods,
and drought. The value of these predictions can also translate into hundreds of millions of
dollars in potential savings.
No two El Niño/La Niña events are alike. The effects of each El Niño/La Niña event vary
depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and the interaction with
other modes of climate variability. Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a
region, the impacts can be different.
In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña produces the opposite climate variations
to El Niño (typical impacts on rainfall patterns of El Niño and La Niña). During ENSO-
neutral phases, atmospheric patterns are dominated by other climate drivers.
El Niño events can have the overall effect of increasing global average surface temperatures,
whereas La Niña events have a cooling tendency. The strong El Niño event of 1997/1998 was
followed by a prolonged La Niña phase that extended from mid-1998 to early 2001, with a
clear impact on global temperatures. At the time, 1998 was the second hottest year on record.
There is yet no conclusive evidence of the impact of climate change on the frequency,
intensity of El Niño/La Niña events. However, climate change is likely to affect the impacts
related to El Niño and La Niña in terms of the intensity and frequency of extreme weather
and climate events.
El Niño / La Niña. (2022, December 16). World Meteorological Organization. https://wmo.int/topics/el-nino-la-nina

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