THE IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING

Examples:

 Rising seas and increased coastal flooding

 Longer and more damaging wildfire seasons
 More frequent and intense heat waves
 Costly and growing health impacts
 An increase in extreme weather events
 Heavier precipitation and flooding
 Destruction of marine ecosystems
 More severe droughts in some areas
 Increased pressure on groundwater supplies
 Growing risks to our electricity supply
 Changing seasons
 Disruptions to food/ water supplies

What are El Niño and La Niña?

 El Niño and La Niña

o complex weather patterns resulting from variations in ocean
temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
o opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
o typically last 9 to 12 months, but some prolonged events
may last for years
o these events occur on average every two to seven years.
Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.
 ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cycle
o scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature
between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central
Equatorial Pacific (approximately between the International
Date Line and 120 degrees West).
 La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase of ENSO
 El Niño as the warm phase of ENSO.


El Niño
 means The Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish
 El Niño is characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to
+0.5°C.
 El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of
South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually
warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The name was chosen based on
 the time of year (around December) during which these warm
waters events tended to occur.
 refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction
linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the
central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.
 sea surface temperatures across the Pacific can warm by 1–3°F or
more for anything between a few months to two years. El Niño
impacts weather systems around the globe, triggering predictable
disruptions in temperature, rainfall and winds.

La Niña
 La Niña means The Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also
sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply "a cold event."
 La Niña is characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to
-0.5°C.
 La Niña episodes represent periods of below-average sea surface
temperatures across the east-central Equatorial Pacific. Global
climate La Niña impacts tend to be opposite those of El Niño
impacts. In the tropics, ocean temperature variations in La Niña
also tend to be opposite those of El Niño.
 During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal
in the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.

El Niño and La Niña

Though ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or
phases, it can be in “El Niño”, “La Niña” (the two opposite phases) or
“neutral” (neither El Niño nor La Niña).

To qualify as an El Niño event, according to the US National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
must remain at or above 0.5°C (about 1°F) for at least three months. For
La Niña, the SSTs are below average rather than above.

El Niño conditions occur when abnormally

warm waters accumulate in tropical latitudes
of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean
associated with a weakening of the low-level
easterly winds. Consequently, tropical rains
that usually fall over Indonesia shift eastward.
 La Niña conditions occur when cooler-than-average waters
accumulate in the central and eastern tropical Pacific,
associated with a strengthening of the low-level easterly
winds over the central tropical Pacific. Heavy rainfall occurs
over Indonesia and Malaysia.

ENSO-neutral: Normally, strong trade winds

blow from the east along the equator, pushing
warm water into the western Pacific Ocean.

Thermocline is a layer of water in which there is an abrupt change in

temperature separating the warmer surface water from the colder deep
water

 Whenever the ONI is between +0.5 and -0.5, conditions are referred
to as ENSO-neutral.

El Niño and La Niña Years and Intensities

Based on Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Jan Null, CCM
Updated thru Jan-Feb-Mar 2019

The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has become the de-facto standard that
NOAA uses for identifying El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) events in the
tropical Pacific. It is the running 3-month mean SST anomaly for the Niño
3.4 region (i.e., 5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW). Events are defined as 5
consecutive overlapping 3-month periods at or above the +0.5o anomaly
for warm (El Niño) events and at or below the -0.5 anomaly for cold (La
Niña) events. The threshold is further broken down into Weak (with a 0.5
to 0.9 SST anomaly), Moderate (1.0 to 1.4), Strong (1.5 to 1.9) and Very
Strong (≥ 2.0) events. For the purpose of this report for an event to be
categorized as weak, moderate, strong or very strong it must have
equaled or exceeded the threshold for at least 3 consecutive overlapping
3-month periods

El Niño La Niña
Moderate Very Strong Moderate
Weak - 11 -7 Strong - 5 - 3 Weak - 10 -4 Strong - 7
1952-53 1951-52 1957-58 1982-83 1954-55 1955-56 1973-74
1953-54 1963-64 1965-66 1997-98 1964-65 1970-71 1975-76
1958-59 1968-69 1972-73 2015-16 1971-72 1995-96 1988-89
1969-70 1986-87 1987-88 1974-75 2011-12 1998-99
1976-77 1994-95 1991-92 1983-84 1999-00
1977-78 2002-03 1984-85 2007-08
1979-80 2009-10 2000-01 2010-11
2004-05 2005-06
2006-07 2008-09
2014-15 2016-17
2018-19 2017-18
Does a La Niña always follow an El Niño?

A La Niña episode may, but does not always, follow El Niño.

How often does it occur?

The pendulum between an El Niño and La Niña phase swings back and
forth, on average, every three to seven years.

How long do El Niño and La Niña typically last and when do they
develop?

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last 9-12 months. It is somewhat

easier for a La Niña event to last longer (up to 2–3 years) than an El Niño,
which rarely persists for more than a year at a time. They both tend to
develop during the spring (March-June), reach peak intensity during the
late autumn or winter (November-February), and then weaken during the
spring or early summer (March-June).

How do El Niño and La Niña occur?

El Niño and La Niña events are natural occurrences in the global climate
system resulting from variations in ocean temperatures in the Equatorial
Pacific. In turn, changes in the atmosphere impact the ocean temperatures
and currents. The system oscillates between warm (El Niño) to neutral or
cold (La Niña) conditions.

Is El Niño caused by climate change?

No. El Niño events are not caused by climate change – they are a natural
reoccurring phenomenon that have been occurring for thousands of years.
Some scientists believe they may be becoming more intense and/or more
frequent as a result of climate change, although exactly how El Niño
interacts with climate change is not 100 percent clear. Climate change is
likely to affect the impacts related to El Niño and La Niña, in terms of
extreme weather events. Further research will help separate the natural
climate variability from any trends due to human activities.

Can we prevent El Niño and La Niña from occurring?

No, El Niño and La Niña are naturally occurring climate patterns and
humans have no direct ability to influence their onset, intensity or duration.

What is the humanitarian impact of El Niño?

El Niño and La Niña can make extreme weather events more likely in
certain regions, including droughts, floods and storms. Over 60 million
people were impacted by the 2015/2016 El Niño although an exact
number is hard to pinpoint. East Africa, Southern Africa, the Pacific
Islands, South East Asia and Central America were most affected by
extreme weather, including below-normal rains and flooding. The
humanitarian fallout in certain areas included increased food insecurity
due to low crop yields and rising prices; higher malnutrition rates;
devastated livelihoods; and forced displacement.

What are the global impacts of La Niña?

While El Niño and La Niña do impact global climate patterns; however,

they neither affect all regions nor do are their impacts in a given region the
same. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña (or cold
episodes) produces roughly the opposite climate variations from El Niño.
For instance, parts of Australia and Indonesia are prone to drought during
El Niño but are typically wetter than normal during La Niña.

The impacts of each La Niña event are never exactly the same. They
depend on the intensity of the event, the time of year when it develops and
the interaction with other climate patterns. La Niña is often associated with
wet conditions in eastern Australia, and with heavy rainfall in Indonesia,
the Philippines and Thailand. La Niña usually leads to increased rainfall in
North Eastern Brazil, Colombia and other northern parts of South America
and is associated with rainfall deficiency in Uruguay and parts of
Argentina. Drier-than-normal conditions are generally observed along
coastal Ecuador and North Western Peru. La Niña episodes feature a very
wave-like jet stream flow over the United States and Canada in the
northern winter, with colder and stormier than average conditions across
the North, and warmer and less stormy conditions across the South. La
Niña events are generally associated with increased rainfall in southern
Africa, although they are not the only contributing factors. La Niña is
associated with rainfall deficiency in equatorial eastern Africa – for
instance Somalia and eastern Kenya.

It is important to stress that such factors as the Indian Ocean Dipole, the
North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation can also have an important
influence on seasonal climate.

Can we predict El Niño and La Niña episodes before they occur?

Yes, scientists can often predict the onset of El Niño and La Niña several
months to a year in advance, thanks to modern climate models and
observations data (which includes sensors on satellites and ocean buoys),
which constantly monitors changing conditions in the ocean and
atmosphere.

How do we predict El Niño/La Niña?

The first model-based ENSO predictions started in the late 1980s. Today, a
number of computer models around the world use current ocean
temperatures and atmospheric conditions to project the state of ENSO,
looking a year or more into the future. Forecasters examine multi-model
ensembles, scrutinizing where these models agree or disagree in order to
issue El Niño and La Niña forecasts. Among the leading sources of regular
ENSO forecasts are NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the International
Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University (working
with NOAA), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) facilitates development of

a consensus-based El Niño/La Niña Update that is issued on a quasi-
regular basis (approximately once every three months) through a
collaborative effort with the International Research Institute for Climate and
Society (IRI) and based on contributions from all the leading centres
around the world.

Generally, the strongest ENSO events are predicted more accurately than
weaker ones. A 2012 analysis in the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society evaluated ENSO forecasts from 20 different
prediction models for the period 2002 to 2011. The study found that the
predictive skill of these models actually declined in the 2000s as compared
to the 1980s and 1990s—not because of any loss in model quality (the
models themselves had actually improved), but because the weaker, more
variable ENSO events during this period made forecasting a far greater
challenge.

REFERENCE:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

https://www.weather.gov/media/owlie/2018_ENSO.pdf

https://www.unocha.org/es/themes/el-ni%C3%B1o/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-
ni%C3%B1a

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
Assessment:

1. What does the word El Niño stands for?

a. The Lost Boy
b. The Good Boy
c. The Little boy
d. The Christ Child.
2. What does ENSO means?
a. El Niño SouthEast Oscillation
b. El Niño Southern Ocsillation
c. El Niño South Asia Oscillation
d. El Niño Southern Oscillation
3. The following were implications of global warming EXCEPT?
a. An increase in extreme weather events
b. Costly and growing health impacts
c. Intense sea waves
d. Destruction of marine ecosystems

4. The El Niño phenomenon occurs every _______?

a. 1-2 years
b. 7-9 years
c. 2-7 years
d. 9-11 years

5. El Niño phenomenon lasts for ?

a. 1-3 months
b. 6-9 months
c. 3- 6 months
d. 9 months or more

6. The following were other terms for La Niña except?

a. Temporada de frio
b. El Viejo
c. Anti-El Niño
d. A Cold Event

7. What does ONI means ?

a. Optical Network Infrastructure

b. Office of Neighborhood Involvement
c. Oceanic Niño Index
d. Oceanic El Niño Index

8.It is a layer of water in which there is an abrupt change in temperature

separating the warmer surface water from the colder deep water
 a. Thermostat
b. Thermophiles
c. Thermocline
d. Thermometer

9. Which phenomenon is longer?

a. El Niño
b. La Niña
c. none
d. I don’t know

10. Is El Niño caused by climate change?

a. yes
b. no
c. probably
d. maybe

11. The ONI of this phenomenon was less than or equal to -0.5 °C.

a. El Niño
b. La Niña
c. Global warming
d. None of the above

12. The ONI of this phenomenon was less than or equal to -0.5 °C.

a. El Niño
b. La Niña
c. Global warming
d. None of the above

13. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in
the Southeast and cooler than normal in the Northwest.

a. true
b. false
c. maybe
d. need further study

14. What does NOAA means?

a. National Office for Arts Accreditation

b. National Offshore Aquaculture Act
c. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
d. Non-Operating Aircraft Authorization

15. How many people were affected by the El Niño phenomenon in 2015-
2016?

a. 30 million people
 b. 40 million people
c. 50 million people
d. 60 million people

16. At what period of the year does el Niño reaches at its peak?

a. March-June
b. November-February
c. July-October
d. January- December

17. it is when strong trade winds blow from the east along the equator,
pushing warm water into the western Pacific Ocean.

a. ENSO neutral
b. El Niño
c. La Niña
d. El nino and la nina

18. La Niña is often associated with wet conditions in eastern ______, and
with heavy rainfall in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand

a. America
b. Austria
c. Australia
d. Argentina

19. Facilitates development of a consensus-based El Niño/La Niña Update

that is issued on a quasi-regular basis (approximately once every three
months)

a. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

b. International Research Institute for Climate and Society at
Columbia University
c. the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
d. World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

20. The strongest ENSO events are predicted more accurately than
weaker ones.

a. False
b. True
c. Not sure
d. Need further study