Last value method

Year Quarter Donation Last value method Error

2011 1 242
2011 2 282 242 40
2011 3 254 282 28
2011 4 345 254 91
2012 1 253 345 92
2012 2 290 253 37
2012 3 262 290 28
2012 4 352 262 90
2013 1 270 352 82
2013 2 286 270 16
2013 3 271 286 15
2013 4 378 271 107
378
Mean absolute deviation
MAD = 56.91

Mean square error

MSE = 4366.91
Averaging method
Year Quarter Donation The averaging method Error
2011 1 242
2011 2 282 242 40
2011 3 254 262 8
2011 4 345 259 86
2012 1 253 281 28
2012 2 290 275 15
2012 3 262 278 16
2012 4 352 275 77
2013 1 270 285 15
2013 2 286 283 3
2013 3 271 284 13
2013 4 378 282 96
290
Mean absolute deviation
MAD = 35.84

Mean square error

MSE = 2329.12
Moving-average method
Year Quarter Donation The moving-average method Error
2011 1 242
2011 2 282
2011 3 254
2011 4 345
2012 1 253 281 28
2012 2 290 284 7
2012 3 262 286 24
2012 4 352 288 65
2013 1 270 289 19
2013 2 286 294 8
2013 3 271 293 22
2013 4 378 295 83
301
Mean absolute deviation
MAD = 31.72

Mean square error

MSE = 1668.05
Year Quarter Donation Quarter Seasonal factor
2011 1 242 1 0.88
2011 2 282 2 0.98
2011 3 254 3 0.90
2011 4 345 4 1.23
2012 1 253
2012 2 290
2012 3 262
2012 4 352
2013 1 270
2013 2 286
2013 3 271
2013 4 378
Last value method
Seasonally Seasonally
Seasonal adjusted adjusted Actual Forecasting
Year Quarter Donation Factor value forecast forecast error
2011 1 242 0.88 275
2011 2 282 0.98 288 275 270 13
2011 3 254 0.90 282 288 259 5
2011 4 345 1.23 280 282 347 2
2012 1 253 0.88 288 280 247 6
2012 2 290 0.98 296 288 282 8
2012 3 262 0.90 291 296 266 4
2012 4 352 1.23 286 291 358 6
2013 1 270 0.88 307 286 252 18
2013 2 286 0.98 292 307 301 15
2013 3 271 0.90 301 292 263 8
2013 4 378 1.23 307 301 370 8
307 270
Quarter Seasonal factor
1 0.88
2 0.98
3 0.90
4 1.23

Mean absolute deviation

MAD = 8.48

Mean square error

MSE = 92.79
Averaging method

Seasonally Seasonally
Seasonal adjusted adjusted Actual Forecasting
Year Quarter Donation Factor value forecast forecast error
2011 1 242 0.88 275
2011 2 282 0.98 288 275 270 13
2011 3 254 0.90 282 281 253 1
2011 4 345 1.23 280 282 346 1
2012 1 253 0.88 288 281 248 5
2012 2 290 0.98 296 283 277 13
2012 3 262 0.90 291 285 256 6
2012 4 352 1.23 286 286 351 1
2013 1 270 0.88 307 286 251 19
2013 2 286 0.98 292 288 282 4
2013 3 271 0.90 301 288 260 11
2013 4 378 1.23 307 290 356 22
291 256
Quarter Seasonal factor
1 0.88
2 0.98
3 0.90
4 1.23

Mean absolute deviation

MAD = 8.61

Mean square error

MSE = 122.71
Moving-average method
Seasonally Seasonally
Seasonal adjusted adjusted Actual Forecasting
Year Quarter Donation Factor value forecast forecast error
2011 1 242 0.88 275
2011 2 282 0.98 288
2011 3 254 0.90 282
2011 4 345 1.23 280
2012 1 253 0.88 288 281 248 5
2012 2 290 0.98 296 284 279 11
2012 3 262 0.90 291 287 258 4
2012 4 352 1.23 286 289 355 3
2013 1 270 0.88 307 290 255 15
2013 2 286 0.98 292 295 289 3
2013 3 271 0.90 301 294 265 6
2013 4 378 1.23 307 296 365 13
302 266
Quarter Seasonal factor
1 0.88
2 0.98
3 0.90
4 1.23

Mean absolute deviation

MAD = 8

Mean square error

MSE = 78