HOW CAN

BACKCASTING
BE APPLIED FOR
PROBLEM-SOLVING?

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 WHAT IS BACKCASTING?

Backcasting is a technique to view

the future desired state and then
work backwards to define the
steps that should be taken (from
the present moment onwards) to
achieve the desired state.

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 Backcasting vs Forecasting

While forecasting aims at predicting

the future based on past trends,
Backcasting works in the opposite
direction, from the desired outcome
to the present. In forecasting, the
past is known, and the result is
predicted from these historical
trends (partially unknown). In
Backcasting, the desired outcome is
known, and the possible things I
need to do to achieve this outcome
are somewhat known.

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In terms of the dependent and
independent variables,
forecasting predicts the future
value of the unknown dependent
variables based on the known
values of the independent
variables. In contrast, backcasting
indicates the unknown values of
the independent variables to
explain the known value of the
dependent variables.

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 Backcasting from Single and
Multiple Scenarios

Backcasting can be carried out from

a single future desired scenario or
multiple future scenarios. The
individual or the leadership may
need to use various techniques such
as brainstorming, NGT, Delphi
technique, PESTLE, horizon scanning,
cause and effect diagrams, etc., to
list the future scenarios and home-
in to the desirable and favourable
scenarios

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Backcasting on the Individual
Level and Corporate Level

Backcasting can be used on both

the individual and corporate
levels. A common question during
a job interview is; where do you
see yourself in the next five
years? The next logical step to ask
would be; what are your plans to
achieve that desired outcome?
These questions naturally lead to
the Backcasting process.

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At a Corporate level, Backcasting
may be taken as a strategy-
building exercise examining various
future scenarios and planning the
alternate steps to achieve these
scenarios. The planning may
involve everyday activities that
could apply to all scenarios to
build flexibility in the planning
process. Finally, differentiation can
be made in choosing the plan that
takes the team closer to the
desired future.

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 Steps in Backcasting

The fundamental step in

Backcasting is setting goals
and a vision of the future. The
clearer the vision, the greater
will be the motivation to
achieve this goal.
After visualizing the goal, one
must backtrack and work out
the sequence of the steps to
achieve this goal. Working out
the milestones along with the
timeline is an important step.

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Steps in Backcasting

The next step would be to

build as much flexibility in the
plan as possible, the rapid
change in technology and
societal patterns.
Finally, one must work out the
resources required at each
step and milestone to achieve
the future desired state.

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 Backcasting and the
DMAIC/DMADV Process

The tools used in Lean Six Sigma

DMAIC or DMADV Projects could
also be used in the Backcasting
technique. The Delphi technique
could be used to get a consensus
opinion on what the future could
look like. The tollgates could be
used at each milestone to see if
one is on track and build flexibility
based on the changing future.

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Tools in the Analyse phase of
DMAIC projects, such as listing
the potential scenarios akin to
causes and identifying the root
causes (main scenarios),
hypothesis testing, design of
experiments, or simulation can be
used to analyze the various
scenarios.

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