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THE JOY OF STATISTICS
THE JOY OF
STATISTICS
A Treasury of Elementary Statistical Tools
and their Applications
Steve Selvin
1
1
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP,
United Kingdom
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It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
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© Steve Selvin 2019
The moral rights of the author have been asserted
First Edition published in 2019
Impression: 1
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above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
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You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018965382
ISBN 978–0–19–883344–4
DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198833444.001.0001
Printed in Great Britain by
Bell & Bain Ltd., Glasgow
Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
For my grandsons Benjamin and Eli
Preface
Many introductory statistics textbooks exist for one of two purposes: as

a text of statistical methods required by a variety of disciplines or
courses leading to more advanced statistical methods with the goal of
providing statistical tools for analysis of data. “The Joy of Statistics” is
not one of these books. It is an extensive discussion of the many roles
statistics plays in every day life with explanations and examples of how
statistics works to explore important and sometimes unimportant
questions generated from data.
A few of examples of these questions:
Who is Monty Hall?
Why is Florence Nightingale in the statistics hall of fame?
What is the relationship between a father’s height, his son’s height,
and Sports Illustrated magazine?
How do we know the number of gray whales living in the Pacific
Ocean?
How accurate are home drug testing kits?
Is 0.11 a large number?
Does a dog owner likely own a cat?
What is the difference between the law of averages and the law of
large numbers?
This book is about the beauty, utility, and often simplicity of using statistics
to distill messages from data. The logic and magic of statistics, without
extensive technical details, is applied to answer a wide variety of questions
generated from collected data. A bit of algebra, 10th grade algebra, and
some elementary statistical/mathematical notation provide clear and
readily accessible descriptions of a large number of ways statistics provides
a path to human decision making. Included are a few classic “statistical”
jokes and puzzles. Also bits of statistical history and brief biographies of
important statisticians are sprinkled among various topics. The presented
material is not a progression from simple to less simple to challenging
techniques. The more than 40 topics present an anthology of various
statistical “short stories” intended to be the first step into the world of
statistical logic and methods. Perhaps the title of the text should be an
“Elementary Introduction to the book Elementary Statistical Analysis.”
Acknowledgments
I would especially like to thank my daughter Dr. Elizabeth Selvin, my

son-in-law, David Long, and my wife of 53 years, artist Nancy Selvin for
their constant support and encouragement. I owe thanks to the many
colleagues and friends at the University California Berkeley and Johns
Hopkins School of Public Health who have taken an enthusiastic inter-
est in my work over the years. I also would like to acknowledge Jenny
Rosen for her technical assistance and the design skills of Henna artist
Robyn Jean for inspiring the cover artwork.
Contents
1. Probabilities—rules and review 1

2. Distributions of data—four plots 10
3. Mean value—estimation and a few properties 16
4. Boxplots—construction and interpretation 22
5. The lady who tasted tea—a bit of statistical history 26
6. Outlier/extreme values—a difficult decision 30
7. The role of summary statistics—brief description 33
8. Correlation and association—interpretation 38
9. Proportional reduction in error—a measure of association 45
10. Quick tests—four examples 49
11. Confounding—African-American and white infant mortality 56
12. Odds—a sometimes measure of likelihood 61
13. Odds ratio—a measure of risk? 64
14. Odds ratio—two properties rarely mentioned 69
15. Percent increase—ratios? 74
16. Diagnostic tests—assessing accuracy 77
17. Regression to the mean—father/son data 81
18. Life table—a summary of mortality experience 84
19. Coincidence—a statistical description 93
20. Draft lottery numbers (1970) 96
21. Lotto—how to get in and how to win 99
22. Fatal coronary disease—risk 103
23. Pictures 106
24. The Monty Hall problem 121
25. Eye-witness evidence—Collins versus state of California 125
26. Probabilities and puzzles 127
27. Jokes and quotes 130
xii Contents
28. A true life puzzle 137

29. Rates—definition and estimation 141
30. Geometry of an approximate average rate 147
31. Simpson’s paradox—two examples and a bit more 149
32. Smoothing—median values 156
33. Two by two table—a missing observation 162
34. Survey data—randomized response 166
35. Viral incidence estimation—a shortcut 168
36. Two-way table—a graphical analysis 170
37. Data—too good to be true? 180
38. A binary variable—twin pairs 182
39. Mr. Rich and Mr. Poor—a give and take equilibrium 189
40. Log-normal distribution—leukemia and pesticide exposure 192
41. A contribution to statistics 197
Appendix: Golden mean—application of a quadratic equation 199
Subject Index 205

1
Probabilities—rules and review
Statistics and probability, statistics and probability

Go together like data and predictability
This I tell you brother
You can’t have one without the other.
(With apologies to Frank Sinatra.)
Probability theory is certainly one of the most difficult areas of

mathematics. However, with little effort, probabilities can be simply
used to effectively summarize, explore, and analyze statistical issues
generated from sampled data.
A probability is a numeric value always between zero and one used to
quantify the likelihood of occurrence of a specific event or events. It meas-
ures the likelihood a specific event occurs among all possibilities. For
example, roll a die and the probability the top face is a one is 1/6 or the prob-
ability it is less than 3 is 2/6 because these are two specific events generated
from six equally likely possibilities. Typical notation for an event denoted A
is probability = P(A). In general, a probability is defined as the count of occur-
rences of a specific event divided by the number of all possible equally likely
events. Thus, a probability becomes a s tatistical tool that provides a rigorous
and formal assessment of the role of chance in assessing collected data.
For two events labeled A and B, a probability measures:
P(A) = probability event A occurs
P ( A) = probability event A does not occur
P(B) = probability event B occurs
P ( B ) = probability event B does not occur.
Joint probabilities:
P(A and B) = probability both events A and B occur
P(A and B ) = probability event A occurs and event B does not occur
P(A and B) = probability event A does not occur and event B occurs
P(A and B ) = probability event A does not occur and event B does
not occur
The Joy of Statistics: A Treasury of Elementary Statistical Tools and their Applications. Steve Selvin. © Steve
Selvin 2019. Published in 2019 by Oxford University Press. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198833444.001.0001
2 The Joy of Statistics
Conditional probabilities:
P(A|B) = probability event A occurs when event B has occurred or
P(B|A) = probability event B occurs when event A has occurred.
Note: the probability P(A) = 0 means event A cannot occur (“impossible
event”). For example, rolling a value more than six with a single die or
being kidnaped by Martians. Also note: the probability P(A) = 1 means
event A always occurs (“sure event”). For example, rolling a value less
than 7 with a single die or not being kidnaped by Martians.
A repeat of joint probabilities for two events A and B usefully dis-
played in a 2 × 2 table:
Table 1.1 Joint distribution of events A and B
events B B sum
A P(A and B) P(A and B ) P(A)
P(A and B) P(A and B ) P(A)
sum P(B) P(B ) 1.0
A subset of data (n = 100 observations) from a national survey of pet

ownership conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics containing
counts of the number of people surveyed who own at least one dog
(event denoted D) or own at least one cat (event denoted C) or own
neither a dog or a cat (event denoted D and C ) or own both a cat and
a dog (event denoted D and C).
Table 1.2 Joint distribution of 100 cat and dog owners

D D sum
C D and C = 15 D and C = 45 C = 60
D and C = 20 D and C = 20 C = 40
sum D = 35 D = 65 n = 100
Some specific cat and dog probabilities

P(D) = 35/100 = 0.35 and P(C) = 60/100 = 0.60
P(D and C) = 15/100 = 0.15, P(D and C) = 45/100 = 0.45
P(D and C ) = 20/100 = 0.20, P(D and C ) = 20/100 = 0.20
P(D or C) = P(D and C) + P(D and C) + P(D and C) = 0. 15 + 0.45
+ 0. 20 = 0. 80
Probabilities—rules and review 3
also, P(D or C) = 1 − P(D and C ) = 1 − 0. 20 = 0. 80 because

P(D or C) + P(D and C ) = 1. 0.
Conditional probabilities
Probability a cat owner owns a dog = P(D|C) = 15/60 = 0.25 (row: condi-
tion = cat = C);
probability a dog owner owns a cat = P(C | D) = 15/35 = 0.43 (column:
condition = dog = D).
In general, for events A and B, then
P ( A and B )
P ( A|B ) = − − condition = B
P (B)
and
P ( A and B )
P ( B|A) = − − condition = A.
P ( A)
For example, again dogs and cats:

P ( D andC ) 15 / 100
P ( D|C ) = = = 0.25 − − condition = cat
P (C ) 60 / 100
and
P ( D andC ) 15 / 100
P (C|D ) = = = 0.43 − − condition = dog.
P (D ) 35 / 100
Independence
Two events A and B are independent when occurrence of event A is
unrelated to occurrence of event B. In other words, occurrence of event
A is not influenced by occurrence of event B and vice versa.
Examples of independent events:
toss coin: first toss of a coin does not influence the second toss,
birth: boy infant born first does not influence the sex of a second child,
lottery: this week’s failure to win the lottery does not influence win-
ning next week,
politics: being left-handed does not influence political party affiliation, and
genetics: being a male does not influence blood type.
Notation indicating independence of events A and B is

=P ( A B ) P=
( A) or P ( B A) P ( B ).
Thus, from the pet survey data, the conditional probability P(D | C) =
0.25 is not equal to P(D) = 0.35, indicating, as might be suspected, that
owning a dog and a cat are not independent events. Similarly,
P(C | D) = 0.43 is not equal to P(C) = 0.60, necessarily indicating the
same dog/cat association.
An important relationship:
P ( A and B )
P ( A|B ) = .
P (B)
Furthermore, P(A | B) × P(B) = P(A) × P(B) = P(A and B) when

events A and B are independent because then P(A | B) = P(A).
Incidentally, expression P(A | B) × P(B) = P(A and B) is called the multi-
plication rule. In addition, when events {A, B, C, D, . . .} are independent,
joint occurrence:
P ( A and B and C and D and ) = P ( A) × P ( B ) × P (C ) × P ( D ) ×.
Statistics pays off

Capitalizing on lack of independence in a gambling game called black-
jack made Professor Edward Thorp famous, at least in Las Vegas.
First a short and not very complete description of the rules of this
popular casino card game that requires only a standard deck of 52 play-
ing cards.
The object is to beat the casino dealer by:
1. a count higher than the dealer without exceeding a score of 21 or
2. the dealer drawing cards creating a total count that exceeds 21 or
3. a player’s first two cards are ace and a ten count card.
The card counts are face values 2 through 10, jack, queen, and king
count 10, and ace counts one or eleven.
At the casino gaming table, two cards are dealt to each player and
two cards to the dealer. Both players and dealer then have options of
receiving additional cards. The sum determines the winner. The dealer
starts a new game by dealing a second set of cards using the remaining
cards in the deck. Thus inducing a dependency (lack of independence)

between cards already played and cards remaining in the deck. Professor
Thorp (1962) realized the house advantage could be overcome by sim-
ply counting the number of 10-count cards played in the previous
game. Thus, when the remaining deck contains a large number of
10-count cards it gives an advantage to the player and when the cards
remaining in the deck lack 10-count cards the advantage goes to the
dealer. Professor Thorp simply bet large amounts of money when the
deck was in his favor (lots of 10-count cards) and small amounts when
the deck was not in his favor (few 10-count cards), yielding a small but
profitable advantage. That is, cards left for the second game depend on
the cards played in the first game, producing non-independent events
yielding a detectable pattern.
Blackjack rules were immediately changed (using eight decks of
cards, not one, for example) making card counting useless. Thus, like
casino games roulette, slots machines, keno, and wheel of fortune,
blackjack also does not produce a detectable pattern. That is, each card
dealt is essentially independent of previous cards dealt.
The playing cards could be shuffled after each game producing inde-
pendence, but this would be time consuming, causing a monetary loss
to the casino. Also of note, Professor Thorp wrote a book about his
entire experience entitled “Beat the Dealer.”
Picture of Probabilities—Events A and B (circles)
B
9 7
P ( A) = = 0.45 P ( B ) = = 0.35
20 20
3 12 7
P ( A and B ) = = 0.15 P ( A or B ) = = 0.6 P ( A and B ) = = 0.35
20 20 20
3 3
P ( A | B ) = = 0.43 P ( B | A) = = 0.33
7 9
Table of the same data—an association
B not B total
A 3 6 9
not A 4 7 11
total 7 13 20
Picture of Probabilities—Independent
Events A and B (circles)
5 9
P ( A=) = 0.33 P ( B=) = 0.60
15 15
3 11 4
P ( A and B=) = 0.20 P ( A or B=) = 0.73 P ( A and B=) = 0.27
15 15 15
Table of the same data—no association

B not B total
A 3 2 5
not A 6 4 10
total 9 6 15
Probability of event A restricted to occurrence of event B—again

denoted P(A|B) is:
3
P ( A|B ) = = 0.33 − − column B.
9
The probability of event A is not influenced by event B, both P(A)
and P(A|B) equal 0.33. In symbols, P(A|B) = P(A). Technically, the two
events are said to be independent. More technically, they are said to be
stochastically independent. Also, necessarily P(B|A) = P(B) = 0. 60. An
important consequence of independence of two events, as noted, is P(A
and B) = P(A) × P(B). Specifically, from the example, P(A and B) = 0.20
and, therefore, P(A) × P(B) = (0.33)(0.60) = 0.20.
These two-circle representations of joint probabilities are called Venn
diagrams (created by John Venn, 1880).
Roulette
A sometimes suggested strategy for winning at roulette:
Wait until three red numbers occur then bet on black.
Red (R) and black (B) numbers appear with equal probabilities or P(B) =
P(R). Let R1, R2, and R3 represent occurrence of three independent red
outcomes and B represents occurrence of an additional independent
black outcome. Then, consecutive occurrences of three red outcomes
followed by a single black outcome dictates that:
P ( B and R 1 R 2 R 3 )
P ( B|R 1 R 2 R 3 ) =
P (R 1 R 2 R 3 )
P ( B )P (R 1 )P (R 2 )P (R 3 )
= = P ( B ).
P (R 1 )(R 2 )(R 3 )
No change in the probability of the occurrence of black! The red out-

comes must be unpredictable (independent) or, for example, everyone
would bet on black after red occurred, or vice versa, making the game
rather boring. If a successful strategy existed, the casino game of rou-
lette would not.
One last note:
The game of roulette was originated by the famous 17th century
mathematician/physicist Blaise Pascal and the word roulette means lit-
tle wheel in French.
Summation notation (Σ)

Data:
{x1 = 1, x2 = 2, x3 = 3, x4 = 4, x5 = 5, x6 = 6, x7 = 7}
and number of observations = n = 7.
Sum (denoted S):
S = x1 + x2 + x3 + x 4 + x5 + x 6 + x 7 = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 = 28
denoted ∑ xi = 28.
Mean value (denoted x ), then:

x1 + x2 + x3 + x4 + x5 + x6 + x7 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7
x =S= n =
n 7
28 ∑ xi
= = = 4.
7 7
Sum of squared values ( xi − x )2:
∑(xi − x )2 = (x1 − x )2 + (x2 − x )2 + (x3 − x )2 + (x4 − x )2 + ( x5 − x )2
+ ( x 6 − x )2 + ( x 7 − x )2
= (1 − 4 )2 + ( 2 − 4 )2 + ( 3 − 4 )2 + ( 4 − 4 )2 + ( 5 − 4 )2
+ ( 6 − 4 )2 + ( 7 − 4 )2 = 28
and more details
∑( xi − x )2 = ( −3)2 + ( −2 )2 + ( −1)2 + ( 0 )2 + (1)2 + ( 2 )2 + ( 3)2

= 9 + 4 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 4 + 9 = 28.
If
{x1 = 3, x2 = 2, x3 = 1}and{ y1 = 1, y2 = 2, y3 = 3}
then the mean values are x= y= 2 and
∑ xi yi = 3(1) + 2( 2 ) + 1( 3) = 10.
Application:
∑(xi − x )( yi − y )
correlationcoefficient = r =
( ∑( x − x ) × ∑( y − y ) )
i
2
i
2
( 3 − 2 )(1 − 2 ) + ( 2 − 2 )( 2 − 2 ) + (1 − 2 )( 3 − 2 )
r=
( (3 − 2) 2
+ (2 − 2 )2 + (1 − 2 )2  × (1 − 2 )2 + ( 2 − 2 )2 + ( 3 − 2 )2  )
(1)( −1) + ( 0 )( 0 ) + ( −1)(1) −2 −2
r= = = = −1.0
([1 2
+ 0 + 1 ] × [1 + 0 + 1 ] )
2 2 2
2×2 2
Types of variables
Qualitative:
types examples
nominal socioeconomic status ethnicity occupation
ordinal educational levels military ranks egg sizes
discrete counts reported ages cigarettes smoked
binary yes/no exposed/unexposed case/control
Quantitative:
types examples
continuous weight distance time
ratio speed rate odds
Reference: Beat the Dealer, by Edward O. Thorp, Vintage Books, 1966

2
Distributions of data—four plots
Two quotes from the book entitled Gadsby by Ernest Vincent Wright:
First and last paragraphs:
If youth, throughout all history, had a champion to stand up for it; to
show a doubting world that a child can think; and, possibly, do it practic-
ally; you would not constantly run across folks today who claim ‘a child
do not know anything.’ A child’s brain starts functioning at birth; and
has amongst its many infants convolutions, thousands of dormant atoms,
into which God has put a mystic possibility for n
oticing an adult acts, and
figuring out it purport.
A glorious full moon sails across a sky without a cloud. A crisp night air
has folks turning up coats collars and kids hopping up and down for
warmth. And that giant star, Sirius, winking slily, knows that soon, that
light up in his honors room window will go out. Fttt! It is out! So, as
Sirius and Luna hold an all night vigil, I will say soft ‘Good-night’ to all
our happy bunch, and to John Gadsby, youth’s champion.
Question: Notice anything strange?
A table and plot of letter frequencies from the first and last paragraphs
from the Gadsby book clearly show the absence of the letter “e.” A table
or a plot makes the absence of letter “e” obvious. In fact, the entire book
of close to 50,000 words does not contain letter “e.” Ironically, the author’s
name contains the letter “e” three times. The plotted distribution of
indeed an extreme example illustrates the often effective use of a table or
simple plot to identify properties of collected data.
Table 2.1 Distribution of letters (counts)
a b c d e f g h i j k l m
68 7 22 30 0 15 22 39 61 1 12 37 1
n o p q r s t u v w x y z
10 60 74 16 28 55 67 32 2 15 18 18 1
Distributions of data—four plots 11
Frequency distribution of letters
80
74
68 67
61 60
60
55
39
Frequency
40 37
32
30
28
22 22
18 18
20 16
15 15
12
10
7
1 1 2 1
0
a b c d e f g h i j k lmno p q r s t u v w x y z
Frequency plots are basic to describing many kinds of data. A large

number of choices exist among graphical representations. Four popu-
lar choices are: a barplot, a histogram, a stem-leaf plot, and a frequency
polygon.
Barplot
The height of each bar indicates the frequency of the values of the vari-
able displayed. Order of the bars is not a statistical issue. The example is
a comparison of the number of world champion chess players from
Chess champions
Russia
England
United States
each country (height = frequency). For example, visually, Russia has

produced three times more world champions than the US.
Histogram
A histogram is distinctly different. Sample data (n = 19), ordered for
convenience:
X = {21, 24, 27, 29, 42, 44, 48, 67, 68, 71, 73, 78, 82, 84, 86, 91, 95, 96, 99}.
A histogram starts with an ordered sequence of numerical intervals. In
addition, a series of rectangles are constructed to represent each of the
frequencies of the sampled values within each of the sequence of these
intervals.
The example displays frequencies of observed values labeled X classi-
fied into four intervals of size 20. That is, four intervals each containing
4, 3, 5, and 7 values. The areas of the rectangles again provide a direct
visual comparison of the data frequencies. The resulting plot, like the
previous plots, is a visual description of the distribution of collected
numeric values.
8 Histogram of X
Seven
Five
Frequency
Four
4
Three
20 40 60 80 100
Values
Stem-leaf plot
The stem-leaf plot is another approach to visually displaying data but
often differs little from a histogram. The “stem” is the leftmost column
of the plot usually creating single digit categories ordered smallest to
largest. Multiple digit categories can be also used to create the stem. This
“stem” is separated from the “leaves” by a vertical bar {“|”}. The “leaves”
are an ordered list creating rows made up of the remaining digits from
each category. That is, the stem consists of an ordered series of initial
digits from observed values and leaves consist of remaining digits listed
to the right of their respective stem value. For example, the stem-leaf
plot of the previous data labeled X for intervals {20, 40, 60, 80, 100} is:
stem | leaves
2 | 1479
4 | 248
6 | 78138
8 | 2461569
The previous histogram and this stem-leaf plot hardly differ in prin-
ciple. If the intervals selected to construct a histogram correspond to
those of the stem, the stem-leaf plot is essentially a histogram rotated
ninety degrees, illustrated by the previous example data (X). Unlike a
histogram, the original data values are not lost. Gertrude Stein
famously said, “A difference to be a difference must make a difference.”
Another example, ordered sample data (n = 20):
X = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 21, 22, 23, 24, 31, 32, 33, 41, 42}
Histogram plot of X stem−leaf plot of X

6
stem | leaf
5 0 | 012345
1 | 12345
4 2 | 1234
Frequency
3 | 123
3 4 | 12
0 20 40
Values
Frequency polygon
The frequency polygon is a close cousin of the histogram. It is no more
than a series of straight lines that result from joining the midpoints of
the tops of the histogram rectangles. Like a histogram, it displays a
comparison of data frequencies as well as the general shape of the distri-
bution of collected values. A sometimes useful difference between a
histogram and a frequency polygon is several frequency polygons can
be displayed on the same set of axes.
Data (n = 30):
X = {−2.03, − 1.88, − 1.74, − 1.49, − 0.78, − 0.54, − 0.54, − 0.40, − 0.40,

− 0.38, −0.30, − 0.21, − 0.03, − 0.03, 0.05, 0.20, 0.23, 0.43, 0.49, 0.50,
0.51, 0.62, 0.67, 0.96, 0.97, 1.11, 1.27, 1.44, 1.64, 2.31}
Frequency polygon
10
6
Frequency
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
X−Values
Reference: Gadsby, by Ernest Vincent Wright, Wetzel Publishing Co, 1919

Note: the full text is available on the Internet—Internet archive.
3
Mean value—estimation and
a few properties
The sum of a series of sampled values (each value denoted xi) divided by
the number of values sampled (denoted n) is almost always denoted x .
In symbols, for data values represented by {x1 , x2 , x3 , , xn }, then:
x1 + x2 + x3 +  + xn 1
estimated meanvalue = x = = ∑ xi
n n
is a summary value formally called the arithmetic mean. Sometimes
carelessly called the average. It is a specific kind of average. A number of
statistical measures are also special kinds of averages. A few are: median,
mode, range, harmonic mean, geometric mean, and midrange.
An estimated mean value is most meaningful and easily interpreted
when collected data are sampled from a symmetric distribution. It is
then that the estimated mean value locates the middle of the sampled
values, sometimes called the most “typical” value and usually considered
the “best” single value to characterize an entire set of observations.
Physicists would call the mean value the “center of gravity.” Others
call it a measure of central tendency or a measure of location. When
the estimated mean value is subtracted from each of n observations,
the sum of these differences is zero (in symbols, ∑(xi − x ) = 0 ) , as would
be expected of an estimate at the center of a sample of observations.
Also important, when a value is again subtracted from each of the
observed values xi, the sum of these differences squared has the smallest
possible value if the value subtracted is the estimated mean value x .
Thus, the sum of squared deviations from the mean value (in symbols,
∑( xi − x )2 ) is minimized by choice of x . In this sense, estimate x is the
single value “closest” to the values sampled. Any value other than the
mean value produces a larger sum of squared deviations.
When sampled values are not symmetrically distributed, the mean
value is usually not a useful single value characterization of collected
data. The median value is often suggested as a substitute.
Mean value—estimation and a few properties 17
Formal dictionary definition of a median value:

the value in an ordered set of data such that the number of observations
below and above are equal in number or the value denoted m such that
there is an equal probability of an observation falling below or above the
value m.
Thus, the median value also describes location or central tendency and,
in addition, it is not disproportionally dominated by large or small
extreme values.
Consider artificial data labeled X and its distribution.
The data: X = {2, 5, 9, 20, 35, 60, 95} yield the not very representative
mean value x = 32.3 .
additive scale = as measured
32.3
X
2 5 9 20 35 60 95
The logarithms of these seven values have mean value log(x ) = 2.83 , which
is a better single characterization of the data X.
logarithim scale = log−values
2.8
X
0.7 1.6 2.2 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.6
A comparison of the distribution of example values (X) to logarithms

of the same values (log[X]) begins to indicate why mean values and
other summary statistics are sometimes estimated from logarithms of
observed values.
Logarithms produce small reductions in small values relative to con-
siderably larger reductions in large values. From the example, log(2) →
0.7 and log(95) → 4.6. Thus, log-values tend to create more symmetric
distributions when the data themselves have an asymmetric distribu-
tion. The example data X illustrate this key property. Using a log-value
distribution to estimate the mean value can yield a more representative
statistical summary because logarithms of observed values mute influ-
ences of extreme large and small asymmetric values and, as illustrated,
tend to produce a more symmetric distribution.
A variety of advantages exist from employing a logarithmic scale.
A number of statistical techniques require data to be sampled from at
least approximately symmetric distributions, which can often be gener-

ated from a logarithmic transformation. A log-transformation can
reveal relationships not obvious when the data have an asymmetric dis-
tribution. For example, two parallel lines on a logarithmic scale indi-
cate a constant difference on an additive scale (examples follow).
Occasionally, logarithms of observed values reveal useful summaries
such as linear or additive relationships. In addition, details sometimes
lost, such as in a graphical display containing extremely small values,
become apparent when displayed on a log-scale.
An important application of an estimated mean value arises in meas-
uring variation among sampled observations. The essence of statistical
analysis is often the description of collected data accounting for influ-
ences that cause distracting variation.
For a sample of n values, as before, represented as {x1 , x2 , x3 ,, xn }, the
mean of the observed squared deviations from the mean value x meas-
ures variation. The deviations again are xi − x and the mean of the
squared values, estimated in the usual way (the sum divided by n),
becomes:
1
mean squared deviation = ( x1 − x )2 + ( x2 − x )2 + ( x 3 − x )2 + + ( xn − x )2 
n
1
= ∑ ( xi − x )2 .
n
That is, the mean squared deviation is exactly what the name suggests.
It is simply the mean of the squared deviations directly measuring the
extent of variation among sampled values.
Another popular statistic used to describe variation among sampled
values is the same sum of squared deviations but divided by n − 1 and not
n where:
1
samplevariance = SX2 = ( x1 − x )2 + ( x2 − x )2 + ( x 3 − x )2 +  + ( xn − x )2 
n −1
1
= ∑( x i − x ) 2 .
n −1
The value produced is a slightly more accurate estimate of the variabil-
ity of the distribution sampled and is called the sample variance (symbol
SX2 ). The square root is called the standard deviation (symbol SX).
Examples of sample variability

Three sets of artificial data illustrate three summary statistics, particu-
larly variation measured by sample variance and mean squared devi-
ation:
X = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13}
n = 13, mean value = 7, sample variance(X) = 15.17, mean squared
deviation = 14.0
Y = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13}
n = 7, mean value = 7, sample variance(Y) = 18.67, mean squared
deviation = 16.0
Z = {1, 4, 7, 10, 13}
n = 5, mean value = 7, sample variance(Z) = 22.50, mean squared
deviation = 18.0.
Increasing sample variances and mean squared deviations reflect
increasing variability within each of three data sets. Clearly, the differ-
ence between these two measures of variability is small for most sample
sizes (1/(n − 1) ≈ 1/n). For n = 10, the difference is 0.11–0.10 = 0.01.
A random sample from a distribution with mean of 7 and variance of 14:
data = D = {5.24, 2.73, 8.06, 8.57, 12.30, 6.06, 13.25, 5.49, 9.13, 6.66, 13.04, 1.30,
3.15} n = 13, mean value = 7.3, sample variance(D) = 15.1, mean squared
deviation = 14.0.
Law of averages
The law of averages, sometimes confused with the law of large num-
bers, is not a law but a belief. It is the belief that random events, like
tossing a coin, tend to even out over even a short run. That is, if a coin
is tossed ten times and heads appears on all ten tosses, the law of aver-
ages states the likelihood of tails occurring on the eleventh toss has
increased. If events, like tossing a coin, are independent, then past
events do not influence current or future events. Thus, the law of aver-
ages has earned the name “gambler’s fallacy” or “gambler’s fantasy.”
Nevertheless, the law of averages continues to attract a large number of
faithful believers.
A casino in Monte Carlo, France established a record of sorts. On a
roulette wheel, a common bet is on the occurrence of black or red
numbers that are equally likely (probability, red = black). On a particular
evening in 1903, red occurred consecutively 39 times. If one dollar was

bet on the first red and cashed-in exactly on the 39th occurrence of red,
the winnings would have accumulated to more than 10 billion dollars.
Consistent with the law of averages, a frenzy of betting on black
occurred with higher and higher stakes as more and more consecutive
red numbers occurred. It is said at least a million dollars was lost (worth
today 27.8 million). Incidentally, the American roulette record of 26
consecutive black outcomes occurred in an Atlantic City casino in 1943.
When a coin is tossed and 10 consecutive heads occurs, a mathemat-
ician says “Wow, a rare event” and a statistician says “Let me see the
coin.”
Law of large numbers

The law of large numbers is definitely a law and important not only in
the context of statistics but critical in a huge variety of situations. The
law of large numbers states that as the number of observations increases,
a value estimated from these observations converges to an essentially
stable value. For example, it is highly unlikely an individual knows or
even can accurately guess the likelihood of surviving beyond age 65.
However, large quantities of data gathered on length of life produce an
extremely precise estimate of this probability.
The price of life insurance can not be determined without the law of
large numbers. Transit systems, with great precision, depend on know-
ing how many travelers will arrive at 8:00 Monday mornings. Budgets
are created from precise estimates based on expected tax returns. If the
law of large numbers was repealed, book publishers would not know
how many books to print, social planning of all sorts would be chaotic
and car manufacturers would not know how many pick-up trucks to
assemble. Theater, restaurant, and airline attendance would fluctuate
unpredictably from none to over capacity. Precise predictability from
data is guaranteed by the law of large numbers, a necessary component
of modern society.
The mean value simply illustrates the law of large numbers. As the
sample size (n) increases, precision of an estimated value increases. In
other words, the variation of an estimated value decreases, producing a
stable and ultimately an extremely precise and known value. In the
case of an estimated mean value, variability is directly expressed as:
varianceof x
variance( x ) = .
n
Formal expression of the variance of the estimated mean value clearly
shows the larger the sample, the more precise the estimated value.
Thus, for large samples of data, the estimated mean value becomes
essentially the value estimated because its variability becomes essen-
tially zero.
If μ represents the unknown mean value, then as n increases, the
estimated mean value becomes increasingly indistinguishable from μ
because its variance becomes essentially zero and thus, in symbols,
x → µ. That is, the law of large numbers guarantees a precise, stable,
and predictable estimated value. Like the mean value, most estimates
increase in precision with increasing sample size.
One last note

A recent survey indicated that 65% of Americans believe they have
above average intelligence. That is, the average American thinks they
are smarter than the average American.
4
Boxplots—construction
and interpretation
Sometimes a cliche tells the whole story—“A picture is worth a thou-

sand words.”
A boxplot is a graphical display of several specific properties of a dis-
tribution of observed values. The box part of a boxplot is constructed so
the bottom of the box is the location of the lower quartile (first quartile
= 25%) and the top of the box is the location of the upper quartile
(third quartile = 75%) of collected data. Thus, the size of the box repre-
sents the interquartile range. That is, the height of the box part of the
boxplot represents the location of 50% of the sample data reflecting
variability/range. The width of the box is usually made proportional to
sample size, which is only an issue when boxplots are compared. The
box is divided by a line at the median value giving a sense of data loca-
tion. The distance from the median line to the top of the box relative to
the distance to the bottom reflects symmetry of the sampled distribu-
tion. A line exactly at the middle identifies an exactly symmetric distri-
bution. Otherwise, comparison of the distances above and below the
median line visually indicates extent and direction of asymmetry. Lines
extended from top and bottom of the box, each of length 1.5 times the
interquartile range, are called “whiskers.” Observations beyond these
limits are plotted individually (circles). It is frequently important to
identify extreme values likely to produce strong influences on sum-
mary statistics or occasionally locate observations not belonging in the
collected data. An “outlier value” is sometimes defined as an observa-
tion that lies beyond whisker length.
Another feature of a boxplot is that side-by-side display of two or
more boxplots creates a visual comparison of several different sampled
distributions. For example, median values display differences in loca-
tions of each distribution and sizes of the compared boxes potentially
identify differences in sample size, symmetry, and variability.
Boxplots—construction and interpretation 23
The following are applications of boxplot representations.

The properties of a typical box plot
whisker
upper quartile
median
lower quartile
whisker
Histogram of data
Boxplot of same data
Histogram of data
Boxplots—construction and interpretation 25
Boxplot of same data
Boxplots of birth weight by parity
4.5
4.0
infant birth weight
3.5
3.0
2.5
1 2 3
parity
mean birth weight
Decreasing widths of each box indicate a corresponding decrease in

sample size.
5
The lady who tasted tea—a bit of
statistical history
In the beginning, on a summer afternoon in Cambridge, England (circa

1920), an extraordinary meeting took place between two totally different
people: a British lady who bravely claimed she could tell whether tea was
prepared by adding milk to tea or tea to milk and Ronald Aylmer Fisher who
was destined to become one of the world’s most renowned statisticians.
The lady’s claim was met with skepticism. Clearly tasting one cup of
tea would not provide satisfactory evidence that the “tea-tasting lady”
had an unusual ability. In the complete absence of an ability to deter-
mine two different methods of preparation her answer would be cor-
rect half the time. Fisher proposed an experiment.
History does not record the details but it was decided eight cups of
tea would be prepared, four with tea added to milk and four with milk
added to tea, producing perhaps the most famous 2 × 2 table in the his-
tory of statistics:
Table 5.1 Tea-tasting lady
“tea to milk” “milk to tea” total
tea added to milk 4 0 4
milk added to tea 0 4 4
The results from Fisher’s experiment produced substantial but intui-

tive evidence that at least one person could tell the difference between
these two tea preparations. This Sunday afternoon experiment remark-
ably crystallized two concepts fundamental to modern statistics.
First, the probability of correctly identifying all eight cups of tea by
chance alone (guessing) was recognized to be a useful number. It is:
4 3 2 1 24
P ( alleightcorrect| guessing ) = × × × = = 0.014.
8 7 6 5 1680
The lady who tasted tea—a bit of statistical history 27
That is, the obviously small probability 0.014 indicates guessing four
cups correctly is unlikely, very unlikely. Therefore, the alternative of
not guessing becomes likely. Only a small doubt remains that the four
correct determinations were other than a result of exceptional sense of
taste.
More generally, a small probability that an observed outcome occurred
by chance alone provides evidence of a systematic (nonrandom) outcome.
This probability is frequently called the level of significance (nicknamed, p-value).
A level of significance is a quantitative measure of circumstantial evidence.
A small level of significance, such as 0.014, leads to the inference that observed
results are not likely due to chance. In other words, the smaller the signifi-
cance probability, the less chance is a plausible explanation.
The second concept fundamental to modern statistics that arose that
afternoon was designing an experiment to answer specific questions
based on a statistical analysis of resulting data. R. A. Fisher wrote an
important and famous book on the topic entitled Design of Experiments
(1935). His book contains a complete description of the tea-tasting
experiment and analysis. Of more importance, this book introduced
statistical methods that opened the door to creating, collecting, and
analyzing experiment-generated data. Fisher provided many detailed
descriptions of experimental designs that produced summary values
created to be evaluated with statistical analyses. These statistical tools
swept through science, medicine, agriculture, and numerous other
fields for the next fifty or more years. It has been said R. A. Fisher cre-
ated statistical analysis and following statisticians added details.
A bit more about R. A. Fisher

R. A. Fisher graduated from Cambridge University. He accepted a
position (1919) at Rothamstead Agriculture Experiment Station
(a British government research institution). He began his academic
career at University College, London where he was appointed Galton
Professor of Eugenics. Twenty years later he accepted a position as
Professor of Genetics at Cambridge University. His numerous contribu-
tions both to theory and practice of statistics and his equally important
contributions to extending the understanding of genetics have been
recognized by numerous awards and honorary appointments. He was
made a Knight Bachelor by Queen Elizabeth II in 1952.
Fisher’s scientific papers, presentations, and books contain endless

insightful suggestions and remarks. A few are:
“To call in the statistician after the experiment is done may be no
more than asking him to perform a post-mortem examination: he may
be able to say what the experiment died of.”
“The million, million, million to one chance happens one in a million,
million, million times no matter how surprised we may be at the results.”
“The more highly adapted an organism becomes, the less adaptable
it is to new change.”
An aside: Fisher, who did not always get along with his colleagues,
may have been referring to these individuals.
Maybe his most important quote:
“Natural selection is a mechanism for generating an exceedingly
high degree of improbability.”
A bit about R. A. Fisher’s colleague,

statistician Karl Pearson
Carl Pearson was born in 1857 and died in 1936. As an adult, he changed
his name from Carl to Karl to honor Karl Marx. Pearson was home
schooled, then attended University College, London. In 1875 he won a
scholarship to King’s College, London. He graduated from Cambridge
University in 1879. His interests ranged over a huge variety of topics;
ethics, Christianity, elasticity, applied mathematics, heredity, and evo-
lution, to name a few. He even managed a degree in law and was admit-
ted to the bar.
One the greatest of all statisticians, he did not begin the study of
statistics until he was 33 years old (1890). Like R. A. Fisher, many of his
contributions are the foundation of much of modern statistics.
A few notable contributions:
Properties of the correlation coefficient.
Method of moments estimation.
Recognition of the importance of probability distributions.
Perhaps, originator of the histogram.
Pearson’s goodness-of-fit statistic was rated by Science magazine in the
top ten scientific achievements of the twentieth century (ranked
number seven in importance).
The lady who tasted tea—a bit of statistical history 29
R. A. Fisher and Karl Pearson were colleagues but not friends. Pearson
was co-founder and editor of the journal Biometrika (1901) which exists
today. Fisher submitted a number of papers that were published. After
much discussion and suggestions back and forth, Pearson did not pub-
lish a specific paper submitted by Fisher. Finally, Pearson relented and
published Fisher’s work but as a footnote. From that time on, Fisher
sent his papers to less pre-eminent journals. However, years later (1945)
R. A. Fisher was asked to contribute an article on Karl Pearson to the The
Dictionary of National Biography. Fisher replied, “I will set to work and do
what I can. I did not always get on very well with the subject but cer-
tainly I have read with more attention than most have been able to give
him.” The editor replied, somewhat mysteriously, “I am sure you will
roar like any sucking dove”! (L. G. Wickham Legg).
Reference: The Lady Tasting Tea, How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth
Century by David Salsburg, Owl Books, 2002.
6
Outlier/extreme values
—a difficult decision
A dictionary definition of an outlier observation from an introductory

statistics textbook:
An observation that is well outside of the expected range of values in a
study or experiment, and which is often discarded from the data set.
A problem with this definition from a statistical point of view is the
ambiguity of the phrase “well outside.” In addition, an “expected range”
is typically not possible to unequivocally establish. Furthermore, a
proven outlier value should always be discarded.
Two different kinds of extreme values are encountered. One is where
substantial evidence arises that the observation does not belong to the
collected data. For example, a maternal weight was recorded as 312
pounds. Reviewing the original data, it was discovered the correct value
was in fact 132 pounds. The first maternal weight is a true out-and-out
outlier. Usually, it is not that simple.
The other kind of “outlier” value occurs when data contain unusually
large values that may have occurred by chance alone. The decision to
include or exclude this type of outlier/extreme observation from an
analysis is rarely obvious. Because the value in question is necessarily
extreme, the decision can be critical.
Three, not always effective, strategies are sometimes suggested. In
the presence of a possible outlier, the kind of statistical summary c hosen
can lessen its influence. The median value is such a summary. The
median of values of {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and {1, 2, 3, 4, 50} are the same.
Statistical methods exist to reduce influences of outlier/extreme values.
Rank procedures and other methods called nonparametric are also
such techniques. These methods typically rely on replacing observed
values with substitute values, such as numeric ranks or plus/minus
signs, minimizing the sometimes overwhelming influence of one or
Outlier/extreme values—a difficult decision 31
more outlier/extreme values, which is especially important in analysis

of small samples of data. Occasionally, a logarithmic scale reduces sen-
sitivity to the influence of outlier/extreme values providing a more
accurate analysis. Other kinds of approaches require assumptions about
the population sampled. As always, when assumptions are at least
approximately correct these techniques can be useful. However, such
statistical assumptions are often difficult to rigorously justify.
By far the most famous outlier/extreme value occurred during the
US 41st presidential election of the year 2000. Late election night returns
showed candidates Albert Gore (Democrat) and George W. Bush
(Republican) essentially tied based on current tabulation of the nation-
wide electoral college vote. The count from the state of Florida was
delayed and would decide the next president of the United States.
The Florida county Palm Beach had revised its ballot to make voting
simpler and easier to use, particularly for the elderly. The new ballot,
called the “butterfly ballot,” had the opposite effect. The newly designed
ballot caused voters to mistakenly vote for Patrick Buchanan (a third
party candidate) when their intention was to vote for Albert Gore. It
was estimated that close to 2800 Buchanan votes were such errors mak-
ing the Bush/Gore vote ratio the exceptionally large value of 1.7.
Buchanan himself said, “there must be a mistake.” The Democratic
party sued. The Florida supreme court ruled in its favor and allowed a
recount that would elect Albert Gore. The Republican party appealed
the Florida court decision to the Republican dominated US supreme
court and won. George W. Bush became the president of the United
States.
The Florida statewide final Bush/Gore vote ratio was:
2, 912, 790
= ratio
Bush /Gore = = 1.09.
2, 912, 253
The US supreme court rejected a recount of disputed votes giving Bush

a 537 vote statewide lead from close to 6 million votes (0.1%).
Most descriptions of the Palm Beach ballot and the 2000 presidential
election contain the word “contentious” which is certainly an under-
statement. The entire 36-day affair, involving undoubtedly one of the
most critical outlier/extreme value decisions, is described in detail in a
book entitled “Too Close to Call.”
One last note: Home runs?
For the last several years total number of major league baseball
home runs declined each season. Then, in the 2015 season, the trend
dramatically reversed. The number of home runs hit in major league
baseball games increased by 17%. That is, a total of 723 more home runs
hit than the previous season. No evidence emerged to declare the
increase as an outlier or an extreme value. Like many outlier/extreme
values, lots of speculation but no concrete answers.
US Presidential Election—Florida, 2000

2.5
2.0
Gore/Bush vote ratio
Palm Beach
1.5
1.0
0.5
Counties
US Presidential Election—Florida, 2000

9
Palm Beach
8
log(Buchanan votes)
2
log(Bush votes)
Reference: Too Close to Call, by Jeffrey Toobin, Random House, 2001.

Another random document with
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beauty of its forms; the power to perceive and feel the right; the
power to guide one’s self in pursuit of the best—these are worth
more than mere practical acquisitions and mere knowledge, for they
make possible all acquisition and growth and enjoyment.
The thoughtless person who argues against education little knows
how much he and all men are indebted to it. The demand for general
intelligence is increasing, and the capabilities of the race for
knowledge are greater with each educated generation. Earnest men
are endeavoring to make a degree of culture almost universal, as is
shown by the “Chautauqua Scheme” and the plan of “University
Extension.” Education adheres less rigidly to the old lines, and men
can gain a more purely English training, including scientific
preparation for industrial and commercial pursuits. These schemes
are useful because they tend to popularize education, and they
reach a class which would not be reached by the usual courses of
study.
But there is danger of departing from the ideal type of education—
education for general training and knowledge and manhood. Not that
traditional courses must be rigidly adhered to, for a new field of
learning has been opened in which may be acquired a knowledge of
material nature. But, in the zeal for the modern side of education,
there is danger of neglecting the ancient, the classic side, the
humanities. Language and literature, history and philosophy and art,
since they train expression and cultivate ideals, and teach the
motives of men and the nature and destiny of the human race, since
they deal with the spiritual more than with the material, since they
belong exclusively to man, since they stimulate the activity of divine
powers and instincts, since they are peculiarly useful as mental
gymnastics, since they are culturing and refining—they still have and
always will have a high value in ideal education. The ancient side
and the modern side should fairly share the honors in a college
course.
The arguments for so-called practical education are fallacious,
whenever the nature, time, and possibilities of the pupil will enable
him to develop anything more than the bread-winning capabilities.
When one knows the pure mathematics, his knowledge can be
applied in the art of bookkeeping with a minimum effort.
Bookkeeping is a mere incident in the line of mathematical work. A
year in a school of general education, even to the prospective clerk
or merchant, should be worth ten times as much as a year spent in
the practice of mechanical processes. United States history is
valuable to an American youth, but, while with one view America is in
the forefront of progress, there is another view in which our century
of history is only an incident in the march of events. The present can
be understood only historically, and the elements of our civilization
should be known in the light of the world’s history.
Not only should we adhere to our faith in university education, but
we can find reasons for raising the standard of a part of university
work. Even now, no student should receive a professional degree
who has not previously obtained at least a complete high-school
education; and the time may come when, in all institutions, at least
two years of college life will be required as a basis for a doctor’s or a
lawyer’s degree. Graduate courses have become a prominent
feature of many American universities, and year by year larger
numbers of students seek higher degrees. As the race advances, the
preparation for active life will necessarily enlarge.
Many know but little of the forces that move the world. Material
progress does not make the spirit of the age, but the spirit of the age
makes material progress. The outward works of man are a result of
the promptings of the inner spirit. It is the spirit of a nation that wins
battles, the spirit of a nation that makes inventions. Take away ideals
and the world would be inert. It is spirit that makes the difference
between the American soldier fighting for his liberty and the Hessian
hireling or the old Italian condottieri who played at war for the highest
bidder. Here is the difference between a slave and a freeman,
between the oppressed of old countries and the free American.
Ideas move the world. It is related that in the second Messenian
war the Spartans, obeying the Delphic oracle, sent to Athens for a
leader, and the Athenians in contempt sent them a lame
schoolmaster. But the schoolmaster had within him the spirit of song,
and he so inspired the Spartans that they finally gained the victory. In
the contests with England, during the time of the Edwards, the
national spirit of Wales was aroused and sustained by the songs of
her bards. The Marseillaise Hymn helped to keep alive the fire on the
altar of French liberty. It is only as man has hope, aspirations,
courage, that he acts, and, in order to progress, he must act towards
ideals. The mind imagines higher things to be attained, and
endeavor follows.
Natural features of sea or forest or mountain or desert have
something to do with the character and ideas of a people; so, also,
the material wealth in lands and buildings. But to understand the
great movements of history, we must look at the great psychical
factors. Our heritage of ideas, our love of liberty, our Puritan
standards, our hatred of tyranny, our independence of spirit, are
strong characteristics that make us a distinctive and progressive
people. It was an idea that gave England her Magna Charta; an idea
that made us a free and independent nation; an idea that preserved
our Union.
A man makes a labor-saving invention, and the ease and luxury of
physical living are increased, and men bless the inventor and
proclaim that the practical man alone is of use to the world. Another
gives to the world a thought—a great work of art, a song, or a
philosophy—and it takes possession of men and becomes an
incentive to noble living, and the race has truly progressed. Let the
spirit that possesses our people die out and all material prosperity
would perish.
In primitive times, when men lived in caves, and, as Charles Lamb
humorously says, went to bed early because they had nothing else
to do, and grumbled at each other, and, in the absence of candles,
were obliged to feel of their comrades’ faces to catch the smile of
appreciation at their jokes—then, if a great man had a thought, he
related it to his neighbor, and his neighbor told it to a friend, and it
did good. Later, a great man had a thought, and he wrought it out
laboriously on a parchment and loaned it to his neighbor, and he
sent it to a friend, and many came, sometimes from far, to read it,
and it did more good. In our age a great man had a thought and he
printed it in a book, and thousands read it, and it was translated into
many tongues, and his words became household words, and the
race had taken a step forward. The world advances more rapidly to-
day because ideas spread with such facility.
What is called contemptuously “book learning,” the education of
young men in the schools, helps to preserve, increase, make useful,
and transmit all the discoveries and the best thoughts of past
generations. The student is likely to be a man of ideas, of ideals, and
hence he is the great power of the world.
The man of affairs says to the ideal man: There is nothing of value
but railroads, houses, inventions, and creature comforts. Of what use
are your history, poetry, philosophy, and stuff? The scholar replies:
Every man contributes something to the common good. I am
improved by your practical view and skill, and you are unconsciously
benefited by my ideas. You live, without knowing it, in an atmosphere
of ideas, and the practical men of to-day breathe it in and are
inspired and stimulated by it. Without the atmosphere of ideas, your
inventions and material progress would not be.
The culture of the ancients directly encourages ideal standards. It
was a happy thought of the Greek that personified principles and
ideas, that created muses to preside over the forms of literature. Let
us deify our best ideals and set up altars for their worship.
Men laugh at the nonsense of poetry and ideal standards, but
thoughtful men pity them. I remember listening some years since to
a prominent lecturer in a large town. He began with a prelude, in
which with masterly strokes he pictured the admirable location of the
city, its relation to the environing regions, the whole country, and the
world, its probable growth, its material promise, and its opportunity
for social, intellectual, and moral development, and he pointed to the
picture as an inspiration for young men. Then he entered upon his
main theme, “Proofs of Immortality.” As with dramatic distinctness he
made one point after another, he held his vast audience breathless
and spellbound. The next morning I took up my paper at the
breakfast table and noted the glaring headlines and details of
robberies, murders, and domestic scandals, while, in an obscure
corner, expressed in a contemptuous manner, were a dozen lines
upon the magnificent oratory and supreme themes of the evening
before. Is there not room for the scholar with his ideals?
Rudyard Kipling, that Englishman in a strange oriental garb, visited

one of the great and prosperous cities of our country. He was met by
a committee of citizens and shown the glory of the town. They gave
him the height of their blocks, the cost of their palace hotels, and the
extent of their stockyards, expecting him to express wonder and
admiration. He surprised them by exclaiming, “Gentlemen, are these
things so? Then, indeed, I am sorry for you;” and he called them
barbarians, savages, because they gloried in their material
possessions, and said nothing of the morals of the city, nothing of
her great men, nothing of her government, her charities, and her art.
He called them barbarians because they valued their adornments,
not for the art in them, but for their cost in dollars. A lecturer not long
ago said derisively that of all the Athenians who listened with rapt
attention to the orations of Demosthenes, probably not one had a pin
or a button for his cloak. It would be a curious problem to weigh a
few orations of Demosthenes against pins and buttons. It is said of
men of olden time that they conspired to build themselves up into
heaven by using materials of earth, and began to erect a lofty tower,
but the Almighty, seeing the futility of their endeavor, thwarted their
attempt at its inception, and thus showed that men could never
ascend to the heavens by any material means. It is a wonderful
invention, but no flying machine will ever give wings to the spirit.
There is a material and a spiritual side to the world, and the spiritual
can never be enhanced by the material. The lower animals, through
their instincts, perform material feats often surpassing the skill of
man. For his purpose the beaver can build a better dam than man;
no skill of man can make honey for the bee. That which distinguishes
man is his manhood, his thought, his ideals, his spirituality.
There is a glory of the present and a glory of the past. The glory of
the past was its literature, its art, its examples of greatness. Let us
retain the glory of the ancient civilization and add to it the marvellous
scientific and practical spirit of the present. Then shall we have a
civilization surpassing any previous one. Let us not only tunnel our
mountains for outlets to our great transcontinental railway systems,
but let us also find among our mountain ranges, and domes, and
cañons, some sacred grottoes. Let us not only explore our peaks for
gold and silver, but find some Parnassus, sacred to the Muses,
whom we shall learn to invoke not in vain.
Shall we venture to characterize the American student of the near

future? He will hardly be a recluse, nor will he wholly neglect the
body for the culture of the mind. He will be a man of the world, a man
of business; on the one hand, not disregarding the uses of wealth,
and, on the other, not finding material possessions and sensuous
enjoyment the better part of life. He will be an influence in politics
and in the solution of all social problems. His ideals will be viewed
somewhat in the light of their practicality. He will know the laws of
mental growth in order to use them, and will find the avenues of
approach to men’s motives. His religion will add more of work to
faith. He will secure a high growth of self by regarding the welfare of
others, instead of worshipping exclusively at the shrine of his own
development. The scientific knowledge of nature’s materials and
forces, and the skill to use them, will invite a large class of minds. In
brief, the coming student will take on more of the traits of the ideal
man of affairs.
But, while we may not expect a revival of the almost romantic life
of the early literary clubs of London, there will be many a group
devoted to the enjoyment of thought and beauty in literature. If no
Socrates shall walk the streets proclaiming his wisdom on the
corners, at imminent risk from cable cars and policemen, there will
be a philosophy, disseminated through the press of the coming
century, which will still strive to reach beyond the processes of
nature to the unknown cause, will reëxamine those conceptions of
the Absolute, which are thought to stand the test when applied to
explain the problems of human life. If no Diogenes shall be found
with his lantern at noontide, seeking, as it were, in a microscopic
way, the honest man which the brilliant luminary failed to reveal,
many a one, living courageously his principles and convictions, will
endeavor by precept and example to make an age of honest men
who will find the golden rule in the necessities of human intercourse,
as well as in the concepts of ethics and the teaching of religion.
The student owes much to the world. The ideal scholar is too
intelligent to be prejudiced, one-sided, or superstitious. He should
avoid the path of the political demagogue. He should know the force
of ideas and the value of ideals; he should be too wise to fall into the
slough of pure materialism.
The literature of the future will not try the bold, metaphorical flights
of Shakespeare, but there will be a literature that will show the poetry
of the new ideas. Whatever philosophy finally becomes the prevalent
one, there are certain transcendental conceptions, from which the
human mind cannot escape, that will still inspire poetry. There must
always be men who will open their eyes to the wonders of the world
and of human existence—who must know that any, the commonest,
substance is a mystery, the key to which would unlock the secrets of
the universe. The beauty of the starry heavens will ever be
transcendent; every natural scene and object remains a surpassing
work of art; life is filled with tragedy and comedy, and the possibilities
of human existence are as sublime as the eternal heights and
depths. Such conceptions beget a poetry which rises to a faith above
reason; that instinctively looks upon the fact of creation and of
existence as sublime and full of promise, and clings to a belief,
however vague, in the ultimate grand outcome for the individual. The
right view of the world is essentially poetic, and the truest poetry
includes faith and reverence. It is the privilege of the earnest and
profound scholar to know that literature refines, that philosophy
ennobles, that religion purifies, that ideals inspire, and that the world
can be explained in its highest meaning only by the conception of a
personal God.
Notwithstanding its practical tendencies, this century is not
wanting in the highest literary power. It has given us the universal
insight and sympathy of Goethe, whose writings Carlyle describes as
“A Thousand-voiced Melody of Wisdom.” He thus continues, “So did
Goethe catch the Music of the Universe, and unfold it into clearness,
and, in authentic celestial tones, bring it home to the hearts of men.”
This century has revealed the grandeur of metaphysical thought
through Hegel, and found a wonderful expounder of science in
Spencer. Each an exponent of a great philosophy, both giants in
mental grasp, they greatly influence the thought of the age, and
become co-workers in the investigation of many-sided truth.
Next stands Carlyle, in the midst of this mechanical and seemingly
unpoetic age, and proclaims it an age of romance; in inspired words
teaches the beauty of the genuine, the sublimity of creation, the
grandeur of human life. Wordsworth, Nature’s priest, interprets her
forms and moods with finest insight, and finds them expressive of
divine thought. He looks quite through material forms and feels
“A sense sublime
Of something far more deeply interfused,
Whose dwelling is the light of setting suns,
And the round ocean and the living air,
And the blue sky, and in the mind of man:
A motion and a spirit, that impels
All thinking things, all objects of all thought,
And rolls through all things.”
Our own Emerson to this generation quaintly says, “Hitch your

wagon to a star,” and thousands strive to rise superior to occupation,
rank, and habit into the dignity of manhood—to rise above the clouds
of sorrow and disappointment, and bathe in the pure sunlight. The
spiritual beauty of his face, the calm dignity of his life will live in the
memory of men and add to the force of his writings.
Longfellow has said,
“Look, then, into thine heart, and write.”
Every aspiration, every care and sorrow, every mood and sentiment,
finds in him a true sympathy; he stands foremost, not as a genius of
the intellect, but as a genius of the heart. How often he enters our
homes, sits at our firesides, touches the sweetest, tenderest chords
of the lyre, awakens the purest aspirations of our being.
Then comes Dickens, and tells us that fiction may have a high and
noble mission; that it may teach love, benevolence, and charity; that
it may promote cheerfulness and contentment; that it may expose
injustice and defend truth and right.
All these, each a master in his field, are powerful in their influence;
but beyond this fact is the more significant one that they index some
of the better tendencies of the century. Never before were so many
fields of thought represented; never did any possess masters of
greater skill. We may hope that, even in the midst of this period of
material prosperity, invention, and scientific research, the spiritual
side of man’s nature will ultimately gain new strength, and thought a
deeper insight.
With our exact thought and practical energy, is there not danger of
losing all the romance which clothes human existence with beauty
and hope? The gods are banished from Olympus; Helicon is no
longer sacred to the Muses; Egeria has dissolved into a fountain of
tears; the Dryads have fled from the sacred oaks; the elves no
longer flit in the sunbeams; Odin lies buried beneath the ruins of
Walhalla; “Pan is dead.” That wealth of imagination which
characterized the Greek, enabled him to personify the powers that
rolled in the flood or sighed in the breeze, has passed away. We
would turn Parnassus into a stone quarry and hew the homes of the
Dryads into merchantable lumber. The spear of chivalry is broken in
the lists by the implements of the mechanic, the tourney is converted
into a fair. Romance is for a time clouded by the smoke of
manufactories.
But a seer has arisen, who finds in remotest places and in
humblest life the essence of romance. Carlyle is our true poet and
we do well to comprehend his meaning. To his mind we have but to
paint the meanest object in its actual truth and the picture is a poem.
Romance exists in reality. “The thing that is, what can be so
wonderful?” “In our own poor Nineteenth Century ... he has
witnessed overhead the infinite deep, with lesser and greater lights,
bright-rolling, silent-beaming, hurled forth by the hand of God;
around him and under his feet the wonderfullest earth, with her
winter snow storms and summer spice airs, and (unaccountablest of
all) himself standing there. He stood in the lapse of Time; he saw
eternity behind him and before him.” I cannot lead you to the end of
that wonderful passage, but it is worth the devotion of solitude.
We have left the superstitions of the past, but the beauty of
mythology is transmuted into the glory of truth. In the valley of
Chamounix, Coleridge sang for us a grander hymn than any ancient
epic, Wordsworth has read the promise of immortality in a humble
flower, science reveals to us the sublimity of creation. Romance has
not passed away; if we will but look nature becomes transparent and
we see through to Nature’s God.
Many good men fear the results of independent thought and

scientific research, but such fear is the outgrowth of narrow views.
Every pioneer in an unexplored field should be welcomed. The
Darwins and the Spencers are doing a grand work. Only the widest
investigation can possibly affirm the truth of any belief. Let men
doubt their instincts and go forth to seek a foundation for truth. Let
them trace the evolution of organized being from the simplest
elements. Let them resolve the sun and planets and all the wonderful
manifestations of force into nebulæ and heat. Let investigation seek
every nook and corner penetrable by human knowledge. All this will
but show the processes and the wonders of creation without
revealing the cause or end.
The intellect of man, for a time divorced from the warm instincts of
his being, sent forth into chill and rayless regions of discovery,
having performed its mission, will return and speak to the human
soul in startling, welcome accents: Far and wide I have sought a
basis for truth and found it not. Any philosophy that recognizes no
God is false. Search your inner consciousness. You are yourself
God’s highest expression of truth. You see beauty in the flower, glory
in the heavens. You have human love and sympathy, divine
aspirations. Life to you is nothing without aim and hope. Trust your
higher instincts.
The ancient Romans read omens in the flight of birds, and ordered
great events by these supposed revelations of the deities. In our day,
a Bryant has watched by fountain and grove for the revelations of
God, and has read in the flight of a “Waterfowl” a deeper augury than
any ancient priest, for it relates not to political events, but to an
eternal truth, implanted in the breast and confirming the hope of
man.
“There is a power whose care

Teaches thy way along that pathless coast—
The desert and illimitable air—
Lone wandering but not lost.
“Thou’rt gone, the abyss of Heaven

Hath swallowed up thy form; yet on my heart
Deeply has sunk the lesson thou hast given,
And shall not soon depart.
“He who, from zone to zone,

Guides through the boundless sky thy certain flight,
In the long way that I must tread alone,
Will lead my steps aright.”
The student is asked to take a view from the height to which he

has already attained, and catch a glimpse here and there of the
world, of history, and of the meaning of human life. The fuller
significance of what appears in the fair field of learning will come with
maturer years. It is not enough for the student to enjoy selfishly his
knowledge and power; he should be a mediator between his
capabilities and his opportunities. It is one thing to have power,
another to use it. The mighty engine may have within it the potency
of great work, but it may stand idle forever unless the proper means
are employed to utilize it. Let the student convert his power into
active energy, and study the best ways of making it tell for the
highest usefulness. Education but prepares to enter the great school
of life, and that school should be a means of continuous
development towards greater power and higher character, and
knowledge and usefulness. Progress is the condition of life; to stand
still is to decay. One with a progressive spirit gains a little day by day
and year by year, and in the sum of years there will be a large
aggregate. Employ well the differentials of time, then integrate, and
what is the result?
An old and honored college instructor was accustomed to say,
“Education is valuable, but good character is indispensable,” and the
force of this truth grows upon me with every year of experience. I
well remember a sermon by Henry Ward Beecher upon the theme
“Upbuilding,” in which he spent two hours in an earnest and eloquent
appeal, especially to the young, to thrust down the lower nature and
cultivate the nobler instincts, and thus evolve to higher planes.
Happy is he who can keep the buoyancy and freshness and hope
of early years. The “vision splendid,” which appears to the eye of
youth, too often may “fade into the light of common day.” Too often
Wordsworth’s lines become a prophecy, but let them be a warning:
“Full soon thy soul shall have her earthly freight,

And custom lie upon thee with a weight,
Heavy as frost, and deep almost as life.”
Age should be the time of rich fruition. Not long since the Rev.
William R. Alger, on his visit to Denver, after an absence of a dozen
years, addressed a congregation of his old friends, and among other
things he spoke of his impressions when he first approached these
grand mountains. It was at set of sun, and, as he looked away over
the plains, he beheld on an elevation a thousand cattle, and in the
glory of the departing day they seemed to him like “golden cattle
pasturing in the azure and feeding on the blue.” Upon his last visit he
again approached these scenes at the close of day, and his
impressions were as vivid as in earlier years; his enjoyment in life
was deeper, his faith was stronger, and his hope brighter. There is no
need to grow old in spirit; it is only the dead soul that wholly loses
the hope and the joy of youth.
There are three grand categories, not always understood by those
who carelessly name them—the True, the Beautiful, and the Good.
May the thoughts and deeds which give character to life be such as
to fall within this trinity of perfect ideals.
PLATO’S PHILOSOPHY OF EDUCATION AND
LIFE.
It is the calm judgment of history that, in artistic, literary, and
philosophical development, the world shows, relatively, nothing
comparable to the Golden Age of Greece. Attica was the
Shakespeare of the Ancient World. As the Bard of Avon gathered the
material of legend, romance, and history, and crowned the
intellectual activity of the Elizabethan Age with results of enduring
value, so the leading city of Greece centred in herself many
influences of the Orient, and, in a period of great intellectual
awakening under favorable conditions, became the genius that
produced results of surpassing power and beauty. The Greeks
created when European civilization was young, and as yet there was
little of the ideal that, in the Attic Period, blossomed into the
conceptions of the True, the Beautiful, and the Good.
In any other period never has so great a master as Socrates found
so great a pupil as Plato; never has so great a master as Plato
encountered so great a pupil as Aristotle. Each pupil grasped and
enlarged upon the mighty work of his instructor.
The world still wonders how any age could become so suddenly
and highly creative. Like the century plant, the Greek race seemed to
have been accumulating, through a long period, power for a quick
and startling development. The thoughtful historian enumerates
many favoring conditions. The Greeks as a race were active, eager
for knowledge, and had a capacity for healthy ideal conceptions. The
beneficent climate brought them in contact with nature, and the
peculiar charm of their sky, air, mountains, and sea filled them with a
sense of wonder and a sense of beauty. We may also mention the
stimulus of their intercourse with their own colonies and with other
peoples; their religion, which contained the germs of ethical and
philosophical thought, and was favorable to freedom of view; the
respect for law that sought for the rules of the state and for individual
conduct a foundation in permanent principles.
Socrates is a more favorite theme than Plato, partly because he is
the first of the three heroic figures that mark the beginning of
philosophy. Then his name is surrounded with a halo that was
constituted by the events of Athens’ greatest period of fame. He lived
just after the glory of victory over the Persian invaders had
stimulated the Greek pride and every activity that is born of pride and
hope. He lived in the period of Athenian supremacy and was
contemporary with Phidias, Sophocles, Euripides, Aristophanes,
Herodotus, Thucydides, and Pericles.
Plato, on the contrary, beheld the beginning of the misfortunes of
Attica and of the decay of Greece. It was the period of the
Peloponnesian Wars, of the Spartan and the Theban Supremacy. It
was the time of the Thirty Tyrants and of the restored Democracy.
But while the time of Plato was not that of the greatest national glory,
it permitted the free development of philosophical thought which later
culminated in Aristotle.
Socrates, with earnestness of soul, with contempt for the extreme
democratic spirit of his time and the growing disregard of divine and
human law, with contempt for the Sophists, whose teachings were
no higher than prudential preparation for practical life and cultivation
of the morals and manners of a Lord Chesterfield, devoted himself to
exposing the ignorance and false reasoning of the day and to the
search for truth, setting up for his ideal the Supreme Good which
included the True and the Beautiful. He, however, was practical in
that he taught that all good was good for something; whatever was
ideal was to be applied in real life, and he was a notable example of
closely following ideals with practical action. “Know thyself” was his
maxim, and, in knowing thyself, know the good and follow it.
Socrates is the practical man, Plato the idealist and literary man,
Aristotle the scientific man. Socrates left us no writings, and, while
Plato in his works uses Socrates as his chief interlocutor, the
dialogues are to be regarded as expressing Socrates’ philosophy as
changed and enlarged by the views of Plato. Xenophon’s
“Memorabilia” is the source of more nearly accurate views of the life
and teachings of Socrates.
Plato uses Socrates’ method of induction and exact definition to
reach the truth aimed at. Many of the scenes are like plays, some of
which would take on a stage setting, with characters that are very
much alive and very human. Although in pursuit of the most serious
subjects, a dramatic tone runs through the discussions. In the first
book of the “Republic,” Thrasymachus in argument gets angry,
grows red in the face, and fairly roars his views at Socrates, who
pretends to be panic-stricken at his looks. Later Thrasymachus asks,
“I want to know, Socrates, whether you have a nurse.” To Socrates’
look of astonished inquiry he more than intimates that the
philosopher is too childish to go about unattended. Many of the
dialogues are in part historical facts. The characters are the
neighbors and friends or intellectual antagonists of the philosopher.
The doctrines he combats are doctrines of the day, the scenes are
real and in or about Athens. The tyranny he hates and the extreme
democracy he satirizes are forms of government whose evils he has
observed, and from which he has suffered. You read the dialogues,
follow their thought, get into their spirit, and you are brought in touch
with the great, throbbing life of the Athenian commonwealth. A few
dialogues, carefully read, are worth a hundred volumes of the
commentators.
It is related that at a certain time Socrates dreamed he saw a

young swan perched on his knee. Soon it gained strength of wing
and flew away, singing a sweet song. The next day Plato appeared
and became the intimate pupil of Socrates. This is one of many
myths, later invented to enlarge the halo of a great name. It was said
that Plato was the son of Apollo and that the bees of Hymettus fed
him with honey, giving him the power of sweet speech. Myths aside,
the chance that made Plato the intimate friend and disciple of
Socrates became of vast significance to the future history of
philosophy. Plato was of aristocratic parentage; he showed in his
youth a poetic temperament, which was later displayed in the
dramatic art of his writings. After the death of Socrates in 399 b. c.,
he travelled and resided at various courts. At the age of forty he
returned to Athens and opened his school in the Gymnasium of the
Academy, where with one or two intervals he taught for a period of
forty years. Aristotle was for twenty years his pupil, and there are
many interesting accounts of the relation between pupil and master.
Plato had in him somewhat of the Puritan, while Aristotle was more
a man of the world, and we may suppose that he often maintained
his opinions with his customary sarcastic smile. He offended the
more austere tastes of his master by nicety of dress, care of his
shoes, display of finger rings, and a dudish cut of his hair.
Contemporaries speak of Plato with admiration for his intellect and
reverence for the beauty of his character, which was “elevated in
Olympian cheerfulness above the world of change and decay.”
In our purpose to touch upon some points of Plato’s doctrines, we
are treating of a transcendent genius whose work has profoundly
affected the thought of the world. Platonism reappears as Neo-
Platonism in the second and third centuries of our era; is largely
adopted in its new form a century later by St. Augustine, the great
expounder of Christianity and teacher of the Middle Ages; arises
again in the seventeenth century proclaiming that moral law is
written in fixed characters in every rational mind; culminates in the
grand idealism of Schelling and Hegel; is transmitted to-day in the
magnificent idealistic ethics of such men as Caird, Green, and
Bradley; gives the cardinal virtues to Christianity; furnishes a broad
and inspiring ethical code for the present; speaks with an inspiration
that largely meets the approval of the Christian world; inspired the
Utopia and the New Atlantis and all ideal schemes of government
and society; was, following Socrates, the father of the inductive
method; became the starting point for the scientific study of nature
and psychology in the eleventh century; was a large element in the
humanistic movement, which at the close of the middle ages created
modern natural science; created conceptions which, developing
down through the centuries in two diverging lines, indirectly found
highest expression in the idealism of Hegel and the evolution of
Spencer, and is likely to furnish in broad outlines, especially as
presented by Aristotle, ground for the reconciliation of the opposite
poles of philosophy in a spiritual evolution.
What was Plato’s central idea? It was the existence of fixed

principles in the universe, principles realized in the consciousness of
man, through pursuit of knowledge. Socrates aimed at a permanent
ground for ethical wisdom in a time when the old foundations of
conduct and of divine and human law were shaken. He was the
progenitor of the inductive method, in that he sought in numerous
instances and opinions the essential common ground or principle,
and aimed at exact definition. The class concept, general notion,
universal truth, was the object of his search. And we find him, for
instance, in Plato, tracing through the ten books of the “Republic” the
essential character of justice. Plato, following Socrates, sought a
foundation for ethical conceptions in a metaphysical theory, the
Doctrine of Ideas, a magnificent illustration of the truth that
speculative philosophy grows out of man’s earnest desire to know
why he is here, and what is the meaning of his moral nature.
It will help much any view in the field of philosophy to keep
uppermost the thought of distinct classes, types, or kinds of things in
nature; the thought of the corresponding class concepts, general
notions or universals in the human mind; and the thought of original
ideas in the mind of God, as constituting principles or laws or modes
of action in nature. This is not a world of chaotic chance, it is a world
of rational and progressive order, and we are compelled to seek for
the architecture an architect and a plan embodying rational ideas.
Plato’s ideas are eternal entities existing neither in nature nor in the
mind of God, but nevertheless the archetypes, forms, or patterns
after which every kind of things to which may be applied a common
name was fashioned. Plato here held in an imperfect way the mighty
truth of all philosophy, and the “Ideas” have reappeared in many
guises,—as the forms or essences of Aristotle, existing only as
realized in nature, as ideas in the mind of God, as the self-evolving
categories of Hegel, as the perfecting principle and the fashioning
laws in the doctrine of evolution.
Man in his preëxistent state dwelt in the region of immaterial ideas
and gazed on the fulness of their truth. At his human birth he was
made oblivious of his past existence, and growth in wisdom was a
gradual realization in the consciousness of the eternal verities
formerly known. As in Wordsworth, man’s birth was but a “sleep and
a forgetting;” growth in knowledge was a remembering. “Trailing
clouds of glory do we come from God, who is our home.” The truth in
this metaphor of philosophy, we may believe, is that man is of divine
origin, and hence may know the divine revelations in his own being
and in the material world. Here was foreshadowed in rough outlines
the spiritual idealism which in its fresh form appears to be gaining
new ground to-day. God writes the book of nature; man is the son of
God and reads and vaguely understands the meaning of the mighty
volume.
Sensations are not knowledge, but the signs of knowledge, as
words are the signs of thought, and the mind is innately active and
rational, else there could be no interpretation of those signs. This
appears to be the true explanation of the fact that we are educated
by contact with nature. Without the signs, no communication of
knowledge; without the native power of the reader, no reception of
knowledge.
Plato held that the ideas were manifest in nature and were also
innate in the mind; hence by self-examination and comparison with
the copies of the ideas in nature, man arrived at essential truth which
was the work of philosophy.
Plato identified the Idea of Ideas with Cause, Mind, the Good or
God. God was a personality and supreme above the gods. He was
named by his chief attribute, the Good, and of this the True and the
Beautiful were qualities. Cousin says, “The True, the Beautiful, and
the Good are only revelations of the same Being; that which reveals
them to us is reason.” “If all perfection belongs to the perfect being,
God will possess beauty in its plenitude. The father of the world, of
its laws, of its ravishing harmonies, the author of forms, colors, and
sounds, he is the principle of beauty in nature. It is he whom we
adore without knowing it, under the name of the ideal, when our
imagination, borne on from beauties to beauties, calls for a final
beauty in which it may find repose.” This passage is thoroughly
Platonic in spirit and throws much light on the meaning of these
absolute ideas of Plato. With change of terms the same passage
would apply to Truth and Goodness. We trace them as they appear
in the conscious reason and disposition, as they are manifested in
the relations of society or are suggested by the reality and
beneficence of the world, and we are led to the conception of the
perfect ideals whose truth exists in God.
Plato has four principles whose interrelation and process of the
active elements determine the world, as the laws of modern
evolution are conceived to work out the results discovered by
science: (1) unlimited, unformed, or chaotic nature; (2) law, imposing
limits and forms upon nature; (3) the resulting, definite types and
ideas of a rational world; (4) the Cause which effects these results.
The Good is that which imparts truth to the object and knowledge
to the perceiving subject, and is the cause of science and truth;
hence, to know the Good is the ethical aim, for to know the Good is
to act in harmony with it, and knowledge is virtue.
Plato was fully aware that the philosopher, then as to-day, was
regarded by the many as a useless star-gazer, and in the celebrated
Allegory of the Cave he shows the relation of true insight to the
common view of life and the world. He imagines dwellers in a cave
so placed that they see only the shadows of passing objects and
hear only the echoes of sounds from the outer world. If released and
brought to the full light of the sun they are dazzled and pained, and
think they are in a world of false appearance, and believe the
realities are the familiar shadows in the cave. After a while they
become accustomed to the day and the real objects, and see their
truth and beauty. And if they return to the cave, they are half blind
and appear ridiculous to the dwellers there. He concludes, “Whether
I am right or not, God only knows; but, whether true or false, my
opinion is that in the world of knowledge the idea of good appears
last of all, and is seen only with an effort; and, when seen, is also

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The Joy Of Statistics: A Treasury Of

Elementary Statistical Tools And Their

Many introductory statistics textbooks exist for one of two purposes: as

I would especially like to thank my daughter Dr. Elizabeth Selvin, my

1. Probabilities—rules and review  1

28. A true life puzzle 137

Appendix: Golden mean—application of a quadratic equation 199

Subject Index 205

Statistics and probability, statistics and probability

Probability theory is certainly one of the most difficult areas of

A subset of data (n = 100 observations) from a national survey of pet

Table 1.2 Joint distribution of 100 cat and dog owners

Some specific cat and dog probabilities

also, P(D or C) = 1 − P(D and C ) = 1 − 0. 20 = 0. 80 because

For example, again dogs and cats:

Notation indicating independence of events A and B is

Furthermore, P(A | B) × P(B) = P(A) × P(B) = P(A and B) when

Statistics pays off

cards in the deck. Thus inducing a dependency (lack of independence)

Picture of Probabilities—Events A and B (circles)

Table of the same data—no association

Probability of event A restricted to occurrence of event B—again

No change in the probability of the occurrence of black! The red out-

Summation notation (Σ)

Sum (denoted S):

Mean value (denoted x ), then:

and more details

∑( xi − x )2 = ( −3)2 + ( −2 )2 + ( −1)2 + ( 0 )2 + (1)2 + ( 2 )2 + ( 3)2

Reference: Beat the Dealer, by Edward O. Thorp, Vintage Books, 1966

Frequency distribution of letters

Frequency plots are basic to describing many kinds of data. A large

each country (height = frequency). For example, visually, Russia has

Histogram plot of X stem−leaf plot of X

X = {−2.03, − 1.88, − 1.74, − 1.49, − 0.78, − 0.54, − 0.54, − 0.40, − 0.40,

Reference: Gadsby, by Ernest Vincent Wright, Wetzel Publishing Co, 1919

Formal dictionary definition of a median value:

A comparison of the distribution of example values (X) to logarithms

least approximately symmetric distributions, which can often be gener-

Examples of sample variability

evening in 1903, red occurred consecutively 39 times. If one dollar was

Law of large numbers

One last note

Sometimes a cliche tells the whole story—“A picture is worth a thou-

The following are applications of boxplot representations.

Boxplot of same data

Boxplot of same data

Boxplots of birth weight by parity

mean birth weight

Decreasing widths of each box indicate a corresponding decrease in

In the beginning, on a summer afternoon in Cambridge, England (circa

The results from Fisher’s experiment produced substantial but intui-

A bit more about R. A. Fisher

Fisher’s scientific papers, presentations, and books contain endless

A bit about R. A. Fisher’s colleague,

A dictionary definition of an outlier observation from an introductory

more outlier/extreme values, which is especially important in analysis

The US supreme court rejected a recount of disputed votes giving Bush

US Presidential Election—Florida, 2000

US Presidential Election—Florida, 2000

Reference: Too Close to Call, by Jeffrey Toobin, Random House, 2001.

Rudyard Kipling, that Englishman in a strange oriental garb, visited

Shall we venture to characterize the American student of the near

Our own Emerson to this generation quaintly says, “Hitch your

1. Probabilities—rules and review 1