Starbucks Case Data

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Average
Atlanta 33 45 37 38 55 30 18 58 47 37 23 55 40 40
Boston 26 35 41 40 46 48 55 18 62 44 30 45 50 42
Chicago 44 34 22 55 48 72 62 28 27 95 35 45 47 47
Dallas 27 42 35 40 51 64 70 65 55 43 38 47 42 48
LA 32 43 54 40 46 74 40 35 45 38 48 56 50 46
Total 162 199 189 213 246 288 245 204 236 257 174 248 229 222
Week −5 −4 −3 −2 −1
Atlanta 45 38 30 58 37
Boston 62 18 48 40 35
Chicago 62 22 72 44 48
Dallas 42 35 40 64 43
LA 43 40 54 46 35
Total 254 153 244 252 198
Atlanta
Alpha: 0.2 3 Weeks Moving Average
Mean Absolute
Abs Sum Abs
Week Demand Forecast FT Deviation RSFE Deviation
Deviation Deviation
(MAD)
-5 45
-4 38
-3 30
1 -2 58 37.67 41.73 16.27 16.27 16.27 16.27 16.27
2 -1 37 42.00 41.00 -4.00 4.00 12.27 20.27 10.13
3 1 33 41.67 39.93 -6.93 6.93 5.33 27.20 9.07
4 2 45 42.67 43.13 1.87 1.87 7.20 29.07 7.27
5 3 37 38.33 38.07 -1.07 1.07 6.13 30.13 6.03
6 4 38 38.33 38.27 -0.27 0.27 5.87 30.40 5.07
7 5 55 40.00 43.00 12.00 12.00 17.87 42.40 6.06
8 6 30 43.33 40.67 -10.67 10.67 7.20 53.07 6.63
9 7 18 41.00 36.40 -18.40 18.40 -11.20 71.47 7.94
10 8 58 34.33 39.07 18.93 18.93 7.73 90.40 9.04
11 9 47 35.33 37.67 9.33 9.33 17.07 99.73 9.07
12 10 37 41.00 40.20 -3.20 3.20 13.87 102.93 8.58
13 11 23 47.33 42.47 -19.47 19.47 -5.60 122.40 9.42
14 12 55 35.67 39.53 15.47 15.47 9.87 137.87 9.85
15 13 40 38.33 38.67 1.33 1.33 11.20 139.20 9.28
Average 40.22
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 9.28

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 23.1%
Tracking Signal (TS) 1.21
Atlanta
Mean Absolute
Abs Sum Abs
Deviation Deviation
(MAD)
-5 45
-4 38
-3 30
-2 58
-1 37
1 1 33 41.6 38.16 -5.16 5.16 -5.16 5.16 5.16
2 2 45 39.2 41.52 3.48 3.48 -1.68 8.64 4.32
3 3 37 40.6 39.16 -2.16 2.16 -3.84 10.80 3.60
4 4 38 42.0 40.40 -2.40 2.40 -6.24 13.20 3.30
5 5 55 38.0 44.80 10.20 10.20 3.96 23.40 4.68
6 6 30 41.6 36.96 -6.96 6.96 -3.00 30.36 5.06
7 7 18 41.0 31.80 -13.80 13.80 -16.80 44.16 6.31
8 8 58 35.6 44.56 13.44 13.44 -3.36 57.60 7.20
9 9 47 39.8 42.68 4.32 4.32 0.96 61.92 6.88
10 10 37 41.6 39.76 -2.76 2.76 -1.80 64.68 6.47
11 11 23 38.0 32.00 -9.00 9.00 -10.80 73.68 6.70
12 12 55 36.6 43.96 11.04 11.04 0.24 84.72 7.06
13 13 40 44.0 42.40 -2.40 2.40 -2.16 87.12 6.70
Average 40.22

Tracking Signal (TS) -0.32
Boston
MAD (% Tracking Abs

Week Demand Forecast FT Deviation RSFE
Error) Signal (TS) Deviation
-5 62
-4 18
-3 48
28.0% 1.00 -2 40 42.67 42.13 -2.13 2.13 -2.13
27.4% 1.21 -1 35 35.33 35.27 -0.27 0.27 -2.40
27.5% 0.59 1 26 41.00 38.00 -12.00 12.00 -14.40
16.1% 0.99 2 35 33.67 33.93 1.07 1.07 -13.33
16.3% 1.02 3 41 32.00 33.80 7.20 7.20 -6.13
13.3% 1.16 4 40 34.00 35.20 4.80 4.80 -1.33
11.0% 2.95 5 46 38.67 40.13 5.87 5.87 4.53
22.1% 1.09 6 48 42.33 43.47 4.53 4.53 9.07
44.1% -1.41 7 55 44.67 46.73 8.27 8.27 17.33
15.6% 0.86 8 18 49.67 43.33 -25.33 25.33 -8.00
19.3% 1.88 9 62 40.33 44.67 17.33 17.33 9.33
23.2% 1.62 10 44 45.00 44.80 -0.80 0.80 8.53
40.9% -0.59 11 30 41.33 39.07 -9.07 9.07 -0.53
17.9% 1.00 12 45 45.33 45.27 -0.27 0.27 -0.80
23.2% 1.21 13 50 39.67 41.73 8.27 8.27 7.47
Average 41.28

Boston
MAD (% Tracking Abs

-5 62
-4 18
-3 48
-2 40
-1 35
15.6% -1.00 1 26 40.60 34.76 -8.76 8.76 -8.76
9.6% -0.39 2 35 33.40 34.04 0.96 0.96 -7.80
9.7% -1.07 3 41 36.80 38.48 2.52 2.52 -5.28
8.7% -1.89 4 40 35.40 37.24 2.76 2.76 -2.52
8.5% 0.85 5 46 35.40 39.64 6.36 6.36 3.84
16.9% -0.59 6 48 37.60 41.76 6.24 6.24 10.08
35.0% -2.66 7 55 42.00 47.20 7.80 7.80 17.88
12.4% -0.47 8 18 46.00 34.80 -16.80 16.80 1.08
14.6% 0.14 9 62 41.40 49.64 12.36 12.36 13.44
17.5% -0.28 10 44 45.80 45.08 -1.08 1.08 12.36
29.1% -1.61 11 30 45.40 39.24 -9.24 9.24 3.12
12.8% 0.03 12 45 41.80 43.08 1.92 1.92 5.04
16.8% -0.32 13 50 39.80 43.88 6.12 6.12 11.16
Average 41.28

ston Chic
Weeks Moving Average Alpha: 0.2 3W
Sum Abs Mean Absolute MAD (% Tracking

Week Demand Forecast FT
Deviation Deviation (MAD) Error) Signal (TS)
-5 62
-4 22
-3 72
2.13 2.13 5.3% -1.00 -2 44 52.00 50.40
2.40 1.20 3.4% -2.00 -1 48 46.00 46.40
14.40 4.80 18.5% -3.00 1 44 54.67 52.53
15.47 3.87 11.0% -3.45 2 34 45.33 43.07
22.67 4.53 11.1% -1.35 3 22 42.00 38.00
27.47 4.58 11.4% -0.29 4 55 33.33 37.67
33.33 4.76 10.4% 0.95 5 48 37.00 39.20
37.87 4.73 9.9% 1.92 6 72 41.67 47.73
46.13 5.13 9.3% 3.38 7 62 58.33 59.07
71.47 7.15 39.7% -1.12 8 28 60.67 54.13
88.80 8.07 13.0% 1.16 9 27 54.00 48.60
89.60 7.47 17.0% 1.14 10 95 39.00 50.20
98.67 7.59 25.3% -0.07 11 35 50.00 47.00
98.93 7.07 15.7% -0.11 12 45 52.33 50.87
107.20 7.15 14.3% 1.04 13 47 58.33 56.07
Average 47.89
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
Tracking Signal (TS)
ston Chic

-5 62
-4 22
-3 72
-2 44
-1 48
8.76 8.76 33.7% -1.00 1 44 49.60 47.36
9.72 4.86 13.9% -1.60 2 34 46.00 41.20
12.24 4.08 10.0% -1.29 3 22 48.40 37.84
15.00 3.75 9.4% -0.67 4 55 38.40 45.04
21.36 4.27 9.3% 0.90 5 48 40.60 43.56
27.60 4.60 9.6% 2.19 6 72 40.60 53.16
35.40 5.06 9.2% 3.54 7 62 46.20 52.52
52.20 6.52 36.3% 0.17 8 28 51.80 42.28
64.56 7.17 11.6% 1.87 9 27 53.00 42.60
65.64 6.56 14.9% 1.88 10 95 47.40 66.44
74.88 6.81 22.7% 0.46 11 35 56.80 48.08
76.80 6.40 14.2% 0.79 12 45 49.40 47.64
82.92 6.38 12.8% 1.75 13 47 46.00 46.40
Average 47.89

Chicago
3 Weeks Moving Average Alpha: 0.2
Mean Absolute Tracking
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
Deviation RSFE Deviation Signal Week Demand
Deviation Deviation Error)
(MAD) (TS)
-5 42
-4 35
-3 40
-6.40 6.40 -6.40 6.40 6.40 14.5% -1.00 -2 64
1.60 1.60 -4.80 8.00 4.00 8.3% -1.20 -1 43
-8.53 8.53 -13.33 16.53 5.51 12.5% -2.42 1 27
-9.07 9.07 -22.40 25.60 6.40 18.8% -3.50 2 42
-16.00 16.00 -38.40 41.60 8.32 37.8% -4.62 3 35
17.33 17.33 -21.07 58.93 9.82 17.9% -2.14 4 40
8.80 8.80 -12.27 67.73 9.68 20.2% -1.27 5 51
24.27 24.27 12.00 92.00 11.50 16.0% 1.04 6 64
2.93 2.93 14.93 94.93 10.55 17.0% 1.42 7 70
-26.13 26.13 -11.20 121.07 12.11 43.2% -0.93 8 65
-21.60 21.60 -32.80 142.67 12.97 48.0% -2.53 9 55
44.80 44.80 12.00 187.47 15.62 16.4% 0.77 10 43
-12.00 12.00 0.00 199.47 15.34 43.8% 0.00 11 38
-5.87 5.87 -5.87 205.33 14.67 32.6% -0.40 12 47
-9.07 9.07 -14.93 214.40 14.29 30.4% -1.04 13 42
Average 46.83
14.29 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

25.2% Mean Absolute Percent Error (MA
-1.04 Tracking Signal (TS)
Chicago
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
(MAD) (TS)
-5 62
-4 22
-3 72
-2 44
-1 48
-3.36 3.36 -3.36 3.36 3.36 7.6% -1.00 1 44
-7.20 7.20 -10.56 10.56 5.28 15.5% -2.00 2 34
-15.84 15.84 -26.40 26.40 8.80 40.0% -3.00 3 22
9.96 9.96 -16.44 36.36 9.09 16.5% -1.81 4 55
4.44 4.44 -12.00 40.80 8.16 17.0% -1.47 5 48
18.84 18.84 6.84 59.64 9.94 13.8% 0.69 6 72
9.48 9.48 16.32 69.12 9.87 15.9% 1.65 7 62
-14.28 14.28 2.04 83.40 10.42 37.2% 0.20 8 28
-15.60 15.60 -13.56 99.00 11.00 40.7% -1.23 9 27
28.56 28.56 15.00 127.56 12.76 13.4% 1.18 10 95
-13.08 13.08 1.92 140.64 12.79 36.5% 0.15 11 35
-2.64 2.64 -0.72 143.28 11.94 26.5% -0.06 12 45
0.60 0.60 -0.12 143.88 11.07 23.5% -0.01 13 47
Average 47.89

Dallas
3 Weeks Moving Average
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
Forecast FT Deviation RSFE Deviation Signal
(MAD) (TS)
39.00 44.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 31.3% 1.00

46.33 45.67 -2.67 2.67 17.33 22.67 11.33 26.4% 1.53
49.00 44.60 -17.60 17.60 -0.27 40.27 13.42 49.7% -0.02
44.67 44.13 -2.13 2.13 -2.40 42.40 10.60 25.2% -0.23
37.33 36.87 -1.87 1.87 -4.27 44.27 8.85 25.3% -0.48
34.67 35.73 4.27 4.27 0.00 48.53 8.09 20.2% 0.00
39.00 41.40 9.60 9.60 9.60 58.13 8.30 16.3% 1.16
42.00 46.40 17.60 17.60 27.20 75.73 9.47 14.8% 2.87
51.67 55.33 14.67 14.67 41.87 90.40 10.04 14.3% 4.17
61.67 62.33 2.67 2.67 44.53 93.07 9.31 14.3% 4.79
66.33 64.07 -9.07 9.07 35.47 102.13 9.28 16.9% 3.82
63.33 59.27 -16.27 16.27 19.20 118.40 9.87 22.9% 1.95
54.33 51.07 -13.07 13.07 6.13 131.47 10.11 26.6% 0.61
45.33 45.67 1.33 1.33 7.47 132.80 9.49 20.2% 0.79
42.67 42.53 -0.53 0.53 6.93 133.33 8.89 21.2% 0.78
solute Deviation (MAD) 8.89

solute Percent Error (MAPE) 23.0%
Signal (TS) 0.78
Dallas
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
(MAD) (TS)
49.60 47.36 -3.36 3.36 -3.36 3.36 3.36 7.6% -1.00

46.00 41.20 -7.20 7.20 -10.56 10.56 5.28 15.5% -2.00
48.40 37.84 -15.84 15.84 -26.40 26.40 8.80 40.0% -3.00
38.40 45.04 9.96 9.96 -16.44 36.36 9.09 16.5% -1.81
40.60 43.56 4.44 4.44 -12.00 40.80 8.16 17.0% -1.47
40.60 53.16 18.84 18.84 6.84 59.64 9.94 13.8% 0.69
46.20 52.52 9.48 9.48 16.32 69.12 9.87 15.9% 1.65
51.80 42.28 -14.28 14.28 2.04 83.40 10.42 37.2% 0.20
53.00 42.60 -15.60 15.60 -13.56 99.00 11.00 40.7% -1.23
47.40 66.44 28.56 28.56 15.00 127.56 12.76 13.4% 1.18
56.80 48.08 -13.08 13.08 1.92 140.64 12.79 36.5% 0.15
49.40 47.64 -2.64 2.64 -0.72 143.28 11.94 26.5% -0.06
46.00 46.40 0.60 0.60 -0.12 143.88 11.07 23.5% -0.01

Signal (TS) -0.01
LA
Mean Absolute
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
(MAD)
-5 43
-4 40
-3 54
-2 46 45.67 45.73 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.6%
-1 35 46.67 44.33 -9.33 9.33 -9.07 9.60 4.80 13.7%
1 32 45.00 42.40 -10.40 10.40 -19.47 20.00 6.67 20.8%
2 43 37.67 38.73 4.27 4.27 -15.20 24.27 6.07 14.1%
3 54 36.67 40.13 13.87 13.87 -1.33 38.13 7.63 14.1%
4 40 43.00 42.40 -2.40 2.40 -3.73 40.53 6.76 16.9%
5 46 45.67 45.73 0.27 0.27 -3.47 40.80 5.83 12.7%
6 74 46.67 52.13 21.87 21.87 18.40 62.67 7.83 10.6%
7 40 53.33 50.67 -10.67 10.67 7.73 73.33 8.15 20.4%
8 35 53.33 49.67 -14.67 14.67 -6.93 88.00 8.80 25.1%
9 45 49.67 48.73 -3.73 3.73 -10.67 91.73 8.34 18.5%
10 38 40.00 39.60 -1.60 1.60 -12.27 93.33 7.78 20.5%
11 48 39.33 41.07 6.93 6.93 -5.33 100.27 7.71 16.1%
12 56 43.67 46.13 9.87 9.87 4.53 110.13 7.87 14.0%
13 50 47.33 47.87 2.13 2.13 6.67 112.27 7.48 15.0%
Average 45.50

LA
Mean Absolute
Abs Sum Abs MAPE
Deviation Deviation (% Error)
(MAD)
-5 43
-4 40
-3 54
-2 46
-1 35
1 32 43.60 38.96 -6.96 6.96 -6.96 6.96 6.96 21.8%
2 43 41.40 42.04 0.96 0.96 -6.00 7.92 3.96 9.2%
3 54 42.00 46.80 7.20 7.20 1.20 15.12 5.04 9.3%
4 40 42.00 41.20 -1.20 1.20 0.00 16.32 4.08 10.2%
5 46 40.80 42.88 3.12 3.12 3.12 19.44 3.89 8.5%
6 74 43.00 55.40 18.60 18.60 21.72 38.04 6.34 8.6%
7 40 51.40 46.84 -6.84 6.84 14.88 44.88 6.41 16.0%
8 35 50.80 44.48 -9.48 9.48 5.40 54.36 6.80 19.4%
9 45 47.00 46.20 -1.20 1.20 4.20 55.56 6.17 13.7%
10 38 48.00 44.00 -6.00 6.00 -1.80 61.56 6.16 16.2%
11 48 46.40 47.04 0.96 0.96 -0.84 62.52 5.68 11.8%
12 56 41.20 47.12 8.88 8.88 8.04 71.40 5.95 10.6%
13 50 44.40 46.64 3.36 3.36 11.40 74.76 5.75 11.5%
Average 45.50

Tracking
Signal
(TS)
1.00
-1.89
-2.92
-2.51
-0.17
-0.55
-0.59
2.35
0.95
-0.79
-1.28
-1.58
-0.69
0.58
0.89
Tracking
Signal
(TS)
-1.00
-1.52
0.24
0.00
0.80
3.43
2.32
0.79
0.68
-0.29
-0.15
1.35
1.98
Model Item Atlanta Boston

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 9.28 7.15
3 Week Moving
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 23.07% 14.35%
Average (Alpha: 0.2)
Tracking Signal (TS) 1.21 1.04
3 Week Moving Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 11.60 8.93
Averege (Simple Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 28.80% 17.90%
Moving Average) Tracking Signal (TS) 1.21 1.04
5 Week Moving
Tracking Signal (TS) -0.32 1.75
5 Week Moving Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 11.7 10.63
Averege (Simple Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) 26.60% 26.60%
Moving Average) Tracking Signal (TS) -0.32 1.75
Chicago Dallas LA Average
14.29 8.89 7.48 9.42
25.17% 23.04% 15.54% 20.24%
-1.04 0.78 0.89 0.58
17.87 11.11 9.36 11.77
31.50% 28.80% 19.40% 25.28%
-1.04 0.78 0.89 0.58
11.07 11.07 5.75 8.19
23.42% 23.42% 12.83% 18.31%
-0.01 -0.01 1.98 0.68
18.45 12.37 9.58 12.55
39% 26.50% 21.40% 28.02%
-0.01 -0.81 1.98 0.52
Atlanta
Mean Absolute
Abs Sum Abs
Deviation Deviation
(MAD)
-5 45
-4 38
-3 30
1 -2 58 37.67 45.80 12.20 12.20 12.20 12.20 12.20
2 -1 37 42.00 40.00 -3.00 3.00 9.20 15.20 7.60
3 1 33 41.67 38.20 -5.20 5.20 4.00 20.40 6.80
4 2 45 42.67 43.60 1.40 1.40 5.40 21.80 5.45
5 3 37 38.33 37.80 -0.80 0.80 4.60 22.60 4.52
6 4 38 38.33 38.20 -0.20 0.20 4.40 22.80 3.80
7 5 55 40.00 46.00 9.00 9.00 13.40 31.80 4.54
8 6 30 43.33 38.00 -8.00 8.00 5.40 39.80 4.98
9 7 18 41.00 31.80 -13.80 13.80 -8.40 53.60 5.96
10 8 58 34.33 43.80 14.20 14.20 5.80 67.80 6.78
11 9 47 35.33 40.00 7.00 7.00 12.80 74.80 6.80
12 10 37 41.00 39.40 -2.40 2.40 10.40 77.20 6.43
13 11 23 47.33 37.60 -14.60 14.60 -4.20 91.80 7.06
14 12 55 35.67 43.40 11.60 11.60 7.40 103.40 7.39
15 13 40 38.33 39.00 1.00 1.00 8.40 104.40 6.96
Average 40.22

Atlanta
Mean Absolute
Abs Sum Abs
Deviation Deviation
(MAD)
-5 45
-4 38
-3 30
-2 58
-1 37
1 1 33 41.6 39.88 -6.88 6.88 -6.88 6.88 6.88
2 2 45 39.2 40.36 4.64 4.64 -2.24 11.52 5.76
3 3 37 40.6 39.88 -2.88 2.88 -5.12 14.40 4.80
4 4 38 42.0 41.20 -3.20 3.20 -8.32 17.60 4.40
5 5 55 38.0 41.40 13.60 13.60 5.28 31.20 6.24
6 6 30 41.6 39.28 -9.28 9.28 -4.00 40.48 6.75
7 7 18 41.0 36.40 -18.40 18.40 -22.40 58.88 8.41
8 8 58 35.6 40.08 17.92 17.92 -4.48 76.80 9.60
9 9 47 39.8 41.24 5.76 5.76 1.28 82.56 9.17
10 10 37 41.6 40.68 -3.68 3.68 -2.40 86.24 8.62
11 11 23 38.0 35.00 -12.00 12.00 -14.40 98.24 8.93
12 12 55 36.6 40.28 14.72 14.72 0.32 112.96 9.41
13 13 40 44.0 43.20 -3.20 3.20 -2.88 116.16 8.94
Average 40.22

Tracking Signal (TS) -0.32
Boston
MAD (% Tracking Abs

-5 62
-4 18
-3 48
21.0% 1.00 -2 40 42.67 41.60 -1.60 1.60 -1.60
20.5% 1.21 -1 35 35.33 35.20 -0.20 0.20 -1.80
20.6% 0.59 1 26 41.00 35.00 -9.00 9.00 -10.80
12.1% 0.99 2 35 33.67 34.20 0.80 0.80 -10.00
12.2% 1.02 3 41 32.00 35.60 5.40 5.40 -4.60
10.0% 1.16 4 40 34.00 36.40 3.60 3.60 -1.00
8.3% 2.95 5 46 38.67 41.60 4.40 4.40 3.40
16.6% 1.09 6 48 42.33 44.60 3.40 3.40 6.80
33.1% -1.41 7 55 44.67 48.80 6.20 6.20 13.00
11.7% 0.86 8 18 49.67 37.00 -19.00 19.00 -6.00
14.5% 1.88 9 62 40.33 49.00 13.00 13.00 7.00
17.4% 1.62 10 44 45.00 44.60 -0.60 0.60 6.40
30.7% -0.59 11 30 41.33 36.80 -6.80 6.80 -0.40
13.4% 1.00 12 45 45.33 45.20 -0.20 0.20 -0.60
17.4% 1.21 13 50 39.67 43.80 6.20 6.20 5.60
Average 41.28

Boston
MAD (% Tracking Abs

-5 62
-4 18
-3 48
-2 40
-1 35
20.8% -1.00 1 26 40.60 37.68 -11.68 11.68 -11.68
12.8% -0.39 2 35 33.40 33.72 1.28 1.28 -10.40
13.0% -1.07 3 41 36.80 37.64 3.36 3.36 -7.04
11.6% -1.89 4 40 35.40 36.32 3.68 3.68 -3.36
11.3% 0.85 5 46 35.40 37.52 8.48 8.48 5.12
22.5% -0.59 6 48 37.60 39.68 8.32 8.32 13.44
46.7% -2.66 7 55 42.00 44.60 10.40 10.40 23.84
16.6% -0.47 8 18 46.00 40.40 -22.40 22.40 1.44
19.5% 0.14 9 62 41.40 45.52 16.48 16.48 17.92
23.3% -0.28 10 44 45.80 45.44 -1.44 1.44 16.48
38.8% -1.61 11 30 45.40 42.32 -12.32 12.32 4.16
17.1% 0.03 12 45 41.80 42.44 2.56 2.56 6.72
22.3% -0.32 13 50 39.80 41.84 8.16 8.16 14.88
Average 41.28

ston Chic

-5 62
-4 22
-3 72
1.60 1.60 4.0% -1.00 -2 44 52.00 48.80
1.80 0.90 2.6% -2.00 -1 48 46.00 46.80
10.80 3.60 13.8% -3.00 1 44 54.67 50.40
11.60 2.90 8.3% -3.45 2 34 45.33 40.80
17.00 3.40 8.3% -1.35 3 22 42.00 34.00
20.60 3.43 8.6% -0.29 4 55 33.33 42.00
25.00 3.57 7.8% 0.95 5 48 37.00 41.40
28.40 3.55 7.4% 1.92 6 72 41.67 53.80
34.60 3.84 7.0% 3.38 7 62 58.33 59.80
53.60 5.36 29.8% -1.12 8 28 60.67 47.60
66.60 6.05 9.8% 1.16 9 27 54.00 43.20
67.20 5.60 12.7% 1.14 10 95 39.00 61.40
74.00 5.69 19.0% -0.07 11 35 50.00 44.00
74.20 5.30 11.8% -0.11 12 45 52.33 49.40
80.40 5.36 10.7% 1.04 13 47 58.33 53.80
Average 47.89

ston Chic

-5 62
-4 22
-3 72
-2 44
-1 48
11.68 11.68 44.9% -1.00 1 44 49.60 48.48
12.96 6.48 18.5% -1.60 2 34 46.00 43.60
16.32 5.44 13.3% -1.29 3 22 48.40 43.12
20.00 5.00 12.5% -0.67 4 55 38.40 41.72
28.48 5.70 12.4% 0.90 5 48 40.60 42.08
36.80 6.13 12.8% 2.19 6 72 40.60 46.88
47.20 6.74 12.3% 3.54 7 62 46.20 49.36
69.60 8.70 48.3% 0.17 8 28 51.80 47.04
86.08 9.56 15.4% 1.87 9 27 53.00 47.80
87.52 8.75 19.9% 1.88 10 95 47.40 56.92
99.84 9.08 30.3% 0.46 11 35 56.80 52.44
102.40 8.53 19.0% 0.79 12 45 49.40 48.52
110.56 8.50 17.0% 1.75 13 47 46.00 46.20
Average 47.89

Chicago
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
(MAD) (TS)
-5 42
-4 35
-3 40
-4.80 4.80 -4.80 4.80 4.80 10.9% -1.00 -2 64
1.20 1.20 -3.60 6.00 3.00 6.3% -1.20 -1 43
-6.40 6.40 -10.00 12.40 4.13 9.4% -2.42 1 27
-6.80 6.80 -16.80 19.20 4.80 14.1% -3.50 2 42
-12.00 12.00 -28.80 31.20 6.24 28.4% -4.62 3 35
13.00 13.00 -15.80 44.20 7.37 13.4% -2.14 4 40
6.60 6.60 -9.20 50.80 7.26 15.1% -1.27 5 51
18.20 18.20 9.00 69.00 8.63 12.0% 1.04 6 64
2.20 2.20 11.20 71.20 7.91 12.8% 1.42 7 70
-19.60 19.60 -8.40 90.80 9.08 32.4% -0.93 8 65
-16.20 16.20 -24.60 107.00 9.73 36.0% -2.53 9 55
33.60 33.60 9.00 140.60 11.72 12.3% 0.77 10 43
-9.00 9.00 0.00 149.60 11.51 32.9% 0.00 11 38
-4.40 4.40 -4.40 154.00 11.00 24.4% -0.40 12 47
-6.80 6.80 -11.20 160.80 10.72 22.8% -1.04 13 42
Average 46.83

Chicago
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
(MAD) (TS)
-5 62
-4 22
-3 72
-2 44
-1 48
-4.48 4.48 -4.48 4.48 4.48 10.2% -1.00 1 44
-9.60 9.60 -14.08 14.08 7.04 20.7% -2.00 2 34
-21.12 21.12 -35.20 35.20 11.73 53.3% -3.00 3 22
13.28 13.28 -21.92 48.48 12.12 22.0% -1.81 4 55
5.92 5.92 -16.00 54.40 10.88 22.7% -1.47 5 48
25.12 25.12 9.12 79.52 13.25 18.4% 0.69 6 72
12.64 12.64 21.76 92.16 13.17 21.2% 1.65 7 62
-19.04 19.04 2.72 111.20 13.90 49.6% 0.20 8 28
-20.80 20.80 -18.08 132.00 14.67 54.3% -1.23 9 27
38.08 38.08 20.00 170.08 17.01 17.9% 1.18 10 95
-17.44 17.44 2.56 187.52 17.05 48.7% 0.15 11 35
-3.52 3.52 -0.96 191.04 15.92 35.4% -0.06 12 45
0.80 0.80 -0.16 191.84 14.76 31.4% -0.01 13 47
Average 47.89

Dallas
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
(MAD) (TS)
39.00 49.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 23.4% 1.00

46.33 45.00 -2.00 2.00 13.00 17.00 8.50 19.8% 1.53
49.00 40.20 -13.20 13.20 -0.20 30.20 10.07 37.3% -0.02
44.67 43.60 -1.60 1.60 -1.80 31.80 7.95 18.9% -0.23
37.33 36.40 -1.40 1.40 -3.20 33.20 6.64 19.0% -0.48
34.67 36.80 3.20 3.20 0.00 36.40 6.07 15.2% 0.00
39.00 43.80 7.20 7.20 7.20 43.60 6.23 12.2% 1.16
42.00 50.80 13.20 13.20 20.40 56.80 7.10 11.1% 2.87
51.67 59.00 11.00 11.00 31.40 67.80 7.53 10.8% 4.17
61.67 63.00 2.00 2.00 33.40 69.80 6.98 10.7% 4.79
66.33 61.80 -6.80 6.80 26.60 76.60 6.96 12.7% 3.82
63.33 55.20 -12.20 12.20 14.40 88.80 7.40 17.2% 1.95
54.33 47.80 -9.80 9.80 4.60 98.60 7.58 20.0% 0.61
45.33 46.00 1.00 1.00 5.60 99.60 7.11 15.1% 0.79
42.67 42.40 -0.40 0.40 5.20 100.00 6.67 15.9% 0.78

Signal (TS) 0.78
Dallas
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
(MAD) (TS)
49.60 48.48 -4.48 4.48 -4.48 4.48 4.48 10.2% -1.00

46.00 43.60 -9.60 9.60 -14.08 14.08 7.04 20.7% -2.00
48.40 43.12 -21.12 21.12 -35.20 35.20 11.73 53.3% -3.00
38.40 41.72 13.28 13.28 -21.92 48.48 12.12 22.0% -1.81
40.60 42.08 5.92 5.92 -16.00 54.40 10.88 22.7% -1.47
40.60 46.88 25.12 25.12 9.12 79.52 13.25 18.4% 0.69
46.20 49.36 12.64 12.64 21.76 92.16 13.17 21.2% 1.65
51.80 47.04 -19.04 19.04 2.72 111.20 13.90 49.6% 0.20
53.00 47.80 -20.80 20.80 -18.08 132.00 14.67 54.3% -1.23
47.40 56.92 38.08 38.08 20.00 170.08 17.01 17.9% 1.18
56.80 52.44 -17.44 17.44 2.56 187.52 17.05 48.7% 0.15
49.40 48.52 -3.52 3.52 -0.96 191.04 15.92 35.4% -0.06
46.00 46.20 0.80 0.80 -0.16 191.84 14.76 31.4% -0.01

Signal (TS) -0.01
LA
Mean Absolute
Abs Sum Abs MAD (%
(MAD)
-5 43
-4 40
-3 54
-2 46 45.67 45.80 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.4%
-1 35 46.67 42.00 -7.00 7.00 -6.80 7.20 3.60 10.3%
1 32 45.00 39.80 -7.80 7.80 -14.60 15.00 5.00 15.6%
2 43 37.67 39.80 3.20 3.20 -11.40 18.20 4.55 10.6%
3 54 36.67 43.60 10.40 10.40 -1.00 28.60 5.72 10.6%
4 40 43.00 41.80 -1.80 1.80 -2.80 30.40 5.07 12.7%
5 46 45.67 45.80 0.20 0.20 -2.60 30.60 4.37 9.5%
6 74 46.67 57.60 16.40 16.40 13.80 47.00 5.88 7.9%
7 40 53.33 48.00 -8.00 8.00 5.80 55.00 6.11 15.3%
8 35 53.33 46.00 -11.00 11.00 -5.20 66.00 6.60 18.9%
9 45 49.67 47.80 -2.80 2.80 -8.00 68.80 6.25 13.9%
10 38 40.00 39.20 -1.20 1.20 -9.20 70.00 5.83 15.4%
11 48 39.33 42.80 5.20 5.20 -4.00 75.20 5.78 12.1%
12 56 43.67 48.60 7.40 7.40 3.40 82.60 5.90 10.5%
13 50 47.33 48.40 1.60 1.60 5.00 84.20 5.61 11.2%
Average 45.50

LA
Mean Absolute
Abs Sum Abs MAPE
Deviation Deviation (% Error)
(MAD)
-5 43
-4 40
-3 54
-2 46
-1 35
1 32 43.60 41.28 -9.28 9.28 -9.28 9.28 9.28 29.0%
2 43 41.40 41.72 1.28 1.28 -8.00 10.56 5.28 12.3%
3 54 42.00 44.40 9.60 9.60 1.60 20.16 6.72 12.4%
4 40 42.00 41.60 -1.60 1.60 0.00 21.76 5.44 13.6%
5 46 40.80 41.84 4.16 4.16 4.16 25.92 5.18 11.3%
6 74 43.00 49.20 24.80 24.80 28.96 50.72 8.45 11.4%
7 40 51.40 49.12 -9.12 9.12 19.84 59.84 8.55 21.4%
8 35 50.80 47.64 -12.64 12.64 7.20 72.48 9.06 25.9%
9 45 47.00 46.60 -1.60 1.60 5.60 74.08 8.23 18.3%
10 38 48.00 46.00 -8.00 8.00 -2.40 82.08 8.21 21.6%
11 48 46.40 46.72 1.28 1.28 -1.12 83.36 7.58 15.8%
12 56 41.20 44.16 11.84 11.84 10.72 95.20 7.93 14.2%
13 50 44.40 45.52 4.48 4.48 15.20 99.68 7.67 15.3%
Average 45.50

Tracking
Signal
(TS)
1.00
-1.89
-2.92
-2.51
-0.17
-0.55
-0.59
2.35
0.95
-0.79
-1.28
-1.58
-0.69
0.58
0.89
Tracking
Signal
(TS)
-1.00
-1.52
0.24
0.00
0.80
3.43
2.32
0.79
0.68
-0.29
-0.15
1.35
1.98
Model Item Atlanta Boston

3 Week Moving
3 Week Moving
5 Week Moving
5 Week Moving
Chicago Dallas LA Average
10.72 6.67 5.61 7.06
18.88% 17.28% 11.66% 15.18%
-1.04 0.78 0.89 0.58
14.29 8.89 7.48 9.42
25.17% 23.04% 15.54% 20.24%
-1.04 0.78 0.89 0.58
14.76 14.76 7.67 10.92
31.22% 31.22% 17.11% 24.42%
-0.01 -0.01 1.98 0.68
11.07 11.07 5.75 8.19
23.42% 23.42% 12.83% 18.31%
-0.01 -0.01 1.98 0.68

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Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Average

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 9.28

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 6.70

MAD (% Tracking Abs

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 7.15

MAD (% Tracking Abs

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 6.38

Sum Abs Mean Absolute MAD (% Tracking

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Sum Abs Mean Absolute MAD (% Tracking

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

14.29 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

11.07 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

39.00 44.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 31.3% 1.00

solute Deviation (MAD) 8.89

49.60 47.36 -3.36 3.36 -3.36 3.36 3.36 7.6% -1.00

solute Deviation (MAD) 11.07

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 7.48

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 5.75

Model Item Atlanta Boston

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 6.96

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 8.94

MAD (% Tracking Abs

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 5.36

MAD (% Tracking Abs

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 8.50

Sum Abs Mean Absolute MAD (% Tracking

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Sum Abs Mean Absolute MAD (% Tracking

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

10.72 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

14.76 Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

39.00 49.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 23.4% 1.00

solute Deviation (MAD) 6.67

49.60 48.48 -4.48 4.48 -4.48 4.48 4.48 10.2% -1.00

solute Deviation (MAD) 14.76

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 5.61

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 7.67

Model Item Atlanta Boston

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