REFRIGERATOR

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Forecasting
Alpha 0.4 80
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 70
Month 1 40 40 0 0 0 00.00% 60
Month 2 47 40 7 7 49 14.89%
Month 3 50 42.8 7.2 7.2 51.84 14.40% 50
Month 4 49 45.68 3.32 3.32 11.0224 06.78%

Value
40
Month 5 56 47.008 8.992 8.992 80.85606 16.06%
Month 6 53 50.6048 2.3952 2.3952 5.736983 04.52% 30
Month 7 55 51.56288 3.43712 3.43712 11.81379 06.25%
Month 8 63 52.93773 10.06227 10.06227 101.2493 15.97% 20
Month 9 68 56.96264 11.03736 11.03736 121.8234 16.23% 10
Month 10 65 61.37758 3.622418 3.622418 13.12191 05.57%
Month 11 72 62.82655 9.173451 9.173451 84.1522 12.74% 0
Month 12 69 66.49593 2.50407 2.50407 6.270369 0.0362909 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Total 68.74389 68.74389 536.8864 117.04% Time
Average 5.728658 5.728658 44.74054 09.75%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE Demand Forecast
SE 7.327253
Next period 67.4975577

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.2
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecasting
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 80
Month 1 40 40 0 0 0 00.00%
Month 2 47 40 7 7 49 14.89% 70

Month 3 50 41.4 8.6 8.6 73.96 17.20% 60

Month 4 49 43.12 5.88 5.88 34.5744 12.00%
Month 5 56 44.296 11.704 11.704 136.9836 20.90% 50
Month 6 53 46.6368 6.3632 6.3632 40.49031 12.01%
Value

40
Month 7 55 47.90944 7.09056 7.09056 50.27604 12.89%
Month 8 63 49.32755 13.67245 13.67245 186.9358 21.70% 30
Month 9 68 52.06204 15.93796 15.93796 254.0185 23.44%
Month 10 65 55.24963 9.750367 9.750367 95.06965 15.00% 20
Month 11 72 57.19971 14.80029 14.80029 219.0487 20.56%
10
Month 12 69 60.15977 8.840235 8.840235 78.14975 0.1281193
Total 109.6391 109.6391 1218.507 183.40% 0
Average 9.136588 9.136588 101.5422 15.28% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Bias MAD MSE MAPE Time
SE 11.0386
Demand Forecast
Next period 61.9278122

Forecasting Exponential smoothing

Alpha 0.8
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Forecasting
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err 80
Month 1 40 40 0 0 0 00.00%
Month 2 47 40 7 7 49 14.89% 70
Month 3 50 45.6 4.4 4.4 19.36 08.80%
60
Month 4 49 49.12 -0.12 0.12 0.0144 00.24%
Month 5 56 49.024 6.976 6.976 48.66458 12.46% 50
Month 6 53 54.6048 -1.6048 1.6048 2.575383 03.03%
Value

Month 7 55 53.32096 1.67904 1.67904 2.819175 03.05% 40

Month 8 63 54.66419 8.335808 8.335808 69.4857 13.23% 30
Month 9 68 61.33284 6.667162 6.667162 44.45104 09.80%
Month 10 65 66.66657 -1.66657 1.666568 2.777448 02.56% 20
Month 11 72 65.33331 6.666686 6.666686 44.44471 09.26%
10
Month 12 69 70.66666 -1.66666 1.666663 2.777765 0.0241545
Total 36.66667 46.78273 286.3702 79.75% 0
Average 3.055555 3.898561 23.86418 06.65% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Bias MAD MSE MAPE Time
SE 5.351357
Next period 69.3333325 Demand Forecast