Month Actual Sales Three-Month MAD MAPE MSE

Simple
moving
(Thousands) average

Jan. 54
Feb. 58 #N/A
Mar. 62 #N/A
Apr. 57 58 1.00 1.75% 1.00
May 64 59 5.00 7.81% 25.00
June 75 61 14.00 18.67% 196.00
July 60 65.3333333 5.33 8.89% 28.44
Aug. 65 66.3333333 1.33 2.05% 1.78
Sept. 60 66.6666667 6.67 11.11% 44.44
Oct. 74 61.6666667 12.33 16.67% 152.11
Nov. 59 66.3333333 7.33 12.43% 53.78
Dec. 55 64.3333333 9.33 16.97% 87.11
Total 62.6666667
Average 6.93 10.71% 65.52

Simple moving average

MAD 6.93
MSE 65.52
MAPE 10.71%

Simple Moving Average

80

70

60

50
Actual
Value

40
Forecast
30
 70

60

50

Value Actual
40
Forecast
30

20

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Months
weights 0.50 0.333333333333333 0.1666667

weighted moving
MAD MSE MAPE
average

59.33 2.33 5.44 4.09%

58.83 5.17 26.69 8.07%
61.33 13.67 186.78 18.22%
68.33 8.33 69.44 13.89%
65.67 0.67 0.44 1.03%
65.00 5.00 25.00 8.33%
61.67 12.33 152.11 16.67%
67.83 8.83 78.03 14.97%
64.17 9.17 84.03 16.67%
59.50
7.28 69.77 11%

Weighted moving average

MAD 7.28
MSE 69.77
MAPE 0.11

Weighted moving average

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Months

Actual Sales (Thousands) weighted moving average

weighted moving average weighted moving average
 Assignment No - 2
Month Actual Demand Forecasted demand Exponential Smoothing(using formula) Exponential
usong 3 month moving Smoothing(using
avg Data Analysis
Tool)

1 102 - #N/A
2 91 - 102 102
3 95 - 99.80 99.8
4 105 96 98.84 98.84
5 94 97 100.07 100.072
6 100 98 98.86 98.8576
7 109 99.6666666666667 99.09 99.08608
8 92 101 101.07 101.068864
9 101 100.333333333333 99.26 99.2550912
10 98 100.666666666667 99.60 99.60407296
11 97 99.28 99.283258368
o-2

0.2

Exponential Smoothing
110
Demand

100
Actual
90 Forecast

80
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Months