Month Demand F (alpha = 0,3) F (alpha=0,5) F(t+1)-Ft T(t+1) AF

1 37 37 37
2 40 37 37 0 0
3 41 37.9 38.5 1.5 0.45 38.95
4 37 38.83 39.75 1.25 0.69 40.44
5 45 38.281 38.375 -1.375 0.0705 38.4455
6 50 40.2967 41.6875 3.3125 1.0431 42.7306
7 43 43.20769 45.84375 4.15625 1.977045 47.820795
8 47 43.145383 44.421875 -1.421875 0.957369 45.379244
9 56 44.3017681 45.7109375 1.2890625 1.05687705 46.7678146
10 52 47.81123767 50.85546875 5.14453125 2.28317331 53.1386421
11 55 49.067866369 51.427734375 0.57226563 1.769901 53.1976354
12 54 50.8475064583 53.213867188 1.78613281 1.77477055 54.9886377
13 51.7932545208 53.606933594 0.39306641 1.3602593 54.9671929
MAD
MAPD
 Exponential Smoothing Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
Alpha = 0,3 Alpha = 0,5 Alpha =0,5 Beta=0,3
|Dt-Ft| Et |Dt-Ft| Et |Dt-Ft| Et
0 0 0 0
3 -3 3 2.05
3.1 -3.1 2.5 3.44
1.83 1.83 2.75 6.5545
6.719 -6.719 6.625 7.2694
9.7033 -9.7033 8.3125 4.820795
0.20769 0.20769 2.84375 1.620756
3.854617 -3.854617 2.578125 9.23218545
11.6982319 -11.6982319 10.2890625 1.13864206
4.18876233 -4.18876233 1.14453125 1.8023646205
5.93213363 -5.932133631 3.57226563 0.9886377344
3.15249354 -3.1524935417 0.78613281 54.96719289846
Cumulative Errors
4.44885237 -49.3108484027 3.70011393 7.823706146946
0.09584601
 Linear trend line
Ft |Dt-Ft|
36.92 0.08
38.64 1.36
40.36 0.64
42.08 5.08
43.8 1.2
45.52 4.48
47.24 4.24
48.96 1.96
50.68 5.32
52.4 0.4
54.12 0.88
55.84 1.84

2.29
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.89630388
R Square 0.80336065
Adjusted R S 0.78369672
Standard Erro 3.22499345
Observations 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 424.910839 424.910839 40.8545222 7.91568E-05
Residual 10 104.005828 10.4005828
Total 11 528.916667

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 35.2121212 1.98484626 17.7404779 6.90516E-09 30.7896081 39.6346343
X Variable 1 1.72377622 0.2696875 6.39175424 7.91568E-05 1.12287503 2.32467742
Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%
30.7896081 39.6346343
1.12287503 2.32467742
Month Demand
1 37
2 40 SUMMARY OUTPUT
3 41
4 37 Regression Statistics
5 45 Multiple R 0.89630388
6 50 R Square 0.80336065
7 43 Adjusted R Square 0.78369672
8 47 Standard Error 3.22499345
9 56 Observations 12
10 52
11 55 ANOVA
12 54 df SS
Regression 1 424.910839160839
Residual 10 104.005827505828
Total 11 528.916666666667

Coefficients Standard Error

Intercept 35.2121212 1.98484626060837
X Variable 1 1.72377622 0.269687500463357
Y = 35,21+1,72*X

MS F Significance F
424.910839 40.8545222 7.91568E-05
10.4005828

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%
17.7404779 6.90516E-09 30.7896081 39.6346343 30.7896081 39.6346343
6.39175424 7.91568E-05 1.12287503 2.32467742 1.12287503 2.32467742
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Year Demand

Multiple R 0.99428056 1 45
R Square 0.98859383 2 50.1
Adjusted R S 0.97718767 3 53.6
Standard Erro 0.65319726
Observations 3

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 36.98 36.98 86.671875 0.06812069
Residual 1 0.42666667 0.42666667
Total 2 37.4066667

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 40.9666667 0.9977753 41.0580083 0.01550231 28.2887294 53.6446039
X Variable 1 4.3 0.46188022 9.30977309 0.06812069 -1.56874458 10.1687446
Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%
28.2887294 53.6446039
-1.56874458 10.1687446