Augusto de Oliveira November 26th, 2023

Geography | Ms. Wingo WABE International School (WIS)

'Fertility rate is a key indicator of development’. To what extent do you agree with this

statement?

The following essay will discuss fertility rate is a key indicator of development,

considering facts such as the One Child Policy (in this essay referred as: OCP) and its

impacts, and the benefits and detriments of both youthful and ageing population.

To create a greater understanding, the definition of fertility rate, in simple terms, is

the number of births per woman set in a specific year; with this number being of children

born alive.

In this essay, “China’s pre-OCP” will refer to the year 1978 and “China’s post-OCP”

will refer to the year 2016.

China’s OCP was integrated for thirty-six years, from 1979 to 2015. China’s pre-OCP

fertility rate was of 2,7 (two point seven), whilst its post-OCP fertility rate was of 1,8 (one

point eight). On a sex-age pyramid (also known as population pyramid), 0-14 years old are

infants, 15-64 years old are working age, and 65+ years old are elders. China’s pre-OCP

population had infants between roughly 0-37% (≈37% of the population), working age

between roughly 37-98% (≈61% of the population), and elders between roughly 98-100%

(≈2% of the population). However, China’s post-OCP population had infants between

roughly 0-22% (≈22% of the population), working age between roughly 22-88% (≈66% of

the population), and elders between roughly 88-100% (≈12% of the population). This

showcases how the number of infants in China was decreased by 15%, working age increased

by 5%, and elders increased by 10% after the reinforcement of the OCP.

1
 China’s current fertility rate (as of 2023) is of around 1,7 (1,705 exactly; a 0,18%

increase from 2022). This exhibits how China’s dropping of the OCP did not change much,

as the population has adapted to having a single child, as well as raising a child in China is of

high expenses and many families do not receive enough of a salary for their child to have a

desired education; thus, making it something that many Chinese families end up not wanting

as they remain on a single child.

Both youthful and ageing populations have their pros and cons. A pro of having a

youthful population would be the natural increase in working age, as infants will grow to

have more people in the working age area of a population pyramid. A con for a youthful

population would be a higher healthcare need, as a country’s economy would be unbalanced

due to the raise in healthcare need. A pro for an ageing population would be a greater

knowledge in historical events, as there would be more people that have been in past events

than in current events. A con for an ageing population would be the low fertility rate, as many

women would not be bearing children to an expected level; thus, “disappearing” with its

population (much like with South Korea in the past years).

I partially agree with the statement that ‘Fertility rate is a key indicator of

development’, since a growth on fertility rate can further develop a country as more infants

will be born to one day become working age citizens.

I am sure on my thesis, as I used trustworthy sources, as well as materials used and

learnt in class.

2
 Bibliography

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?

end=2021&locations=CN&name_desc=false&start=1978 ; No author ; “Fertility rate, total

(births per woman) – China” ; The World Bank ; No date ; Accessed on Nov. 24th, 2023

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46558562 ; No author ; “China birth rate:

Mothers, your country needs you!” ; BBC ; Dec. 25th, 2018 ; Accessed on Nov. 24th, 2023

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/fertility-rate#:~:text=The%20current

%20fertility%20rate%20for,a%200.18%25%20increase%20from%202020 ; No author ;

“China Fertility Rate 1950-2023” ; Macrotrends ; No date ; Accessed on Nov. 24th, 2023