The Lean

Futures
Creation
Handbook
VERSION 2.0

A collaborative method toolkit

for futures thinking and creation
 The Lean
Scoping & Scenario
Horizon Scanning Building Futures
Creation
Handbook
The Lean Futures Creation (LFC) toolkit is a collaborative
methodology for futures thinking and creation. The purpose of this
toolkit is to guide teams to understand how the future can be
different from today and what to do about it in the present.

As the world becomes increasingly volatile, proactive futures thinking can save
us from narrow-minded assumptions that are based on today’s practices and
beliefs.
Exploration & Evaluation &
Provotyping Roadmap
The goal of futures thinking is not to predict the future, but to understand the
potential long-term impacts of today’s phenomena, imagine alternative futures
and as a result of this process, make more resilient decisions today.

Your LFC Team,

Annina Antinranta
Annika Hamann
Paul Kaeppler
Simon Messmer
Mia Muurimäki
Ida Rainio
Rosie Trudgen
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK
What is Lean Futures Creation?
LFC as an approach
Lean Futures Creation (LFC) builds upon three important approaches
under the umbrella on futures thinking:
1. Futures literacy
2. Strategic foresight
3. Explorative futures
Futures literacy is an UNESCO approach that promotes the ability to
identify changes to the present and perceive implications in the future.
Strategic foresight is a structured mindset for supporting long-term
decision-making by challenging underlying assumptions and considering
alternative futures.
Explorative futures refers to human-centric methods that materialise
alternative future visions into e.g. design fictions (products, services,
scenarios) to allow critical reflection and further innovation.
With this background, Lean Futures Creation offers a curated selection of
well-known foresight methods in a simple package. The emphasis is on
facilitating discussions about different futures for organizations,
consumers or citizens. LFC aims to democratise futures thinking by
making it as easy and lean as possible. That’s also why the toolkit is free
for everyone to download and to use.
LFC as a set of tools
Lean Futures Creation is within the family of Futurice’s renown Lean
Service Creation (LSC) and follows its principles. It is a set of canvases
that divide complex questions regarding foresight into smaller, more
approachable pieces. The canvases guide teams to ask the right
questions and help them reflect on the answers in a structured and
systematic way.
The canvases can be used digitally but they are also designed to be
printed as large physical posters and attached to walls, allowing the
whole team to look in the same direction, and discuss and think together.
LFC is fully compatible with the LSC toolkit, but it can also be applied as a
separate module.
LFC as a ground for future-proof culture
When an organisation starts to share tools, they start to share a
language, a mindset, and eventually a culture. When futures thinking is
continuously present in the organisation’s walls and its ways of working,
it organically leads to future-proof products, services, and innovations.
LFC as an evolving concept
You’re now holding the 2.0 version of LFC toolkit. Futurice is all about
build-measure-learn attitude and iterative development, and LFC makes
no exception. Please help us make the it even better by being in touch
with us and giving us feedback.
You can reach us via email leanfuturescreation@futurice.com.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK
What is Lean Futures Creation?
Who should use the LFC toolkit?
The toolkit is intended for anyone interested in organised futures
thinking around a particular theme, service, technology, object, or
human formation.
We believe that the toolkit is especially useful for service designers,
business people and technologists.
● Service designers
can use the toolkit to investigate the changing needs and
expectations of the customers and to future-proof their
concepts
● Business people
can use the toolkit to reflect on the changes in their business
environment and to create a more resilient strategy
● Technologists
can use the toolkit to clarify their expectations of how
specific technologies might evolve and to investigate their
broader impact
However, the most beneficial futures thinking process should
preferably involve people with different backgrounds and expertise.
What do I need to get started?
● A creative and result-oriented mindset.
● The canvases. They are presented in four modules, each of which
presents a different kind of working phase or orientation in the
process. You don’t have to use all or even most of the canvases.
We will give you some advice of what to select for your case on
page 6.
● Materials. In addition to the canvases we have created some extra
materials such as Future Cards and Provotype Formats to help
your creative process.
● This booklet. While the canvases are designed to guide you
through the process with visual hints and concise instructions,
there will most likely be moments when you feel the need for more
detailed guidance. This booklet helps you to use the canvases in a
meaningful way.
● Some space. You will need either a digital whiteboard (e.g. Miro,
Mural) or a physical empty wall to work on the canvases with your
team.
● Preparations. Prepare well for your futures creation sessions.
Import the canvases you need to use to the whiteboard tool or
print them out. Printed versions work best as A1 posters. You can
ask your local print house to do the job for you – it’s usually the
easiest option. If you are using physical canvases, bring pens and
sticky notes of different color and size to the working sessions.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Modules of Lean Futures Creation

The Lean Futures Creation toolkit consists of four working modules. Whether you are into scenario work, exploration or both, always
start with plenty of scanning and end your project by implementing your results in your everyday action.

1. Scoping & Horizon Scanning 2. Scenario Building 3. Exploration & Provotyping 4. Evaluation & Roadmap

Plan the purpose of your Select your key topics and Build business-critical What If Analyse your findings, discover
research and scan the investigate possible futures to Questions and find experimental their implications to your
environment for changes. create alternative scenarios. ways to answer them. business and plan ahead.

Canvases: ● Scenario Topics ● ‘What If’ Questions ● Light Analysis

● Research Plan
● Trend Sources
● Megatrend Analysis
● Drivers of Change
● Use Case Trends
+ Scanning in Materials
● Alternative Outcomes
● Scenario Outline
● Scenario
● Scenario Learnings
● Implication Mapping
● Provotype Planning
● Future Personas
● Future Things
● Provotype Drama
● Collaborative Provowriting
● Provotype Recap
+ a lot of content in Materials
● Executive Analysis
● Strategic Connections
● Strategic Alternatives
● Strategic Commitments
● Systemic Evaluation
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

How to use the Toolkit

STREAM A
2. Scenario Building

STREAM B

1. Scoping & Horizon Scanning 4. Evaluation & Roadmap

3. Exploration & Provotyping

First, select a canvas stream that fits your organisation’s needs. There are two main streams with the same start and end point.

STREAM A The analytical stream. Analyse, build alternative scenarios.

Build cohesive, alternative futures, explore them, and build a pathway towards your preferred future state.
STREAM B The intuitive stream. Experiment, empathize, innovate.
Build a future world through impact-cascades, engage in storytelling, and invent artefacts from the future.
STREAM A+B Combine both streams to include both the analytical and the intuitive approach into your work.
1. Scoping and Horizon Scanning
Content
No matter how small a project, make a research plan,
go through the megatrends and scan trends to define
the drivers of change that have an impact on your
theme.

Canvases
• Research Plan
• Trend Sources
• Megatrend Analysis
• Drivers of Change
• Use Case Trends

Materials
• Scanning
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Research Plan

Every research starts with a plan. Frame your research so that it serves
your purposes and resources.

A. Name your theme, location and timespan

Try to give a specific name to your theme while not going too specific
(e.g. future of buying groceries). Next, limit the geographical area you are A
focusing on. Each location has its own geopolitical environment and cultural
history, so international trends may not apply in your chosen location. Finally,
define how far into the future you would like to explore.

B
B. Define your perspective and scope
State whose perspective are you adopting and discuss how much time and
effort you can invest in your research. This will help set the expectations of
everyone involved to the right level.
C
C. Define your objective
What are the questions you seek to answer with your research? What will
this future vision be used for? Choose a few key questions and keep them in
mind when doing your environmental scanning.

D. Identify your biases D

Reflect on how your background or your personal values and experiences
might guide your thinking. Go deep: discuss how you see the world and how
easy it is for you to change your lens or think differently.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Trend Sources
You should use various kinds of sources for your futures work. For specific,
nearer future research, there are most often sources that cannot be
overlooked. With weak signals, you have a lot more liberty to state that
something is relevant and let your intuition guide you. In all cases, you
should be diligent and communicate your sources clearly.
A
A. Scientific publications
Reports published by established global or national institutions such as IPCC,
WWF, OPEC, and Prime minister’s office are often very insightful sources.

B. Trend reports B
Several agencies launch a trend report every year. While these are great
resources, they tend to concentrate on short-term trends.

C. Media C
What you read, see, or hear on the news are important indications of how the
world is changing. Consider which media you want to follow closely.

D. Social media
D
Podcasts, Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and the latest social
media fad the teenagers are using are great for spotting trends and weak
signals, even though making sense of the information overload might be
challenging.
E
E. Artistic sources
Sci-fi holds the undebated first place in this category but art in general is a great
source for especially weak signals.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Megatrend Analysis

Megatrends are global, major phenomena. They have a clear direction,

and they are expected to continue growing in a similar direction in the
coming years. As megatrends affect everything, it is important to
A
analyse their impact on the theme you are investigating.

A. Name your theme

Write down the theme you’re interested in; clear focus will help you to not go
astray.

B. Identify the impact of megatrends B

Reflect megatrends one by one. Discuss and give some estimation of how
big an impact each megatrend has on your theme. Describe what kind of
implications the megatrend could have.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Scanning (see Materials)

A trend is a change that is developing into a certain direction. Signals are a
lot more uncertain – there is no consensus about the nature or direction of
the change – or whether there is any change at all. The longer your time
perspective, the more you have to deal with uncertainties and weak signals.
This template in our Material Collection shows the kind of details you
should collect for each trend or signal.

A. Give a title to your signal or trend

A catchy title helps to remember what the signal is all about. A

B. Add an image
Select an informative image that captures something essential about it.

C. Describe the signal B

Describe the specifics of your signal or trend. What's the context and story
behind it?

D. Evaluate the relevance and potential

Describe the relevance of your trend or signal to the theme you are investigating.
C
There can be a negative and/or positive potentials involved.

D
E. Name the source
Keep track of where your information comes from.
E
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Drivers of Change
A
Use the Drivers of Change canvas to sort out the trends and signals you
found during your environmental scanning. The PESTLE categories help
you make sure you have a holistic perspective on your theme.

A. Consider the impact of megatrends

If you did Megatrend Analysis canvas, this is a recap of your results. If you
didn’t, here is an opportunity to discuss the impact of megatrends to your
theme and select the most important of them.

B. Document trends and weak signals

Write down on post-it notes the trends and weak signals you found in your
scanning process.

C. Sort the cards by PESTLE categories

Add the post-its under the PESTLE category that describes that change best
– Politics, Economy & Companies, Society & Individual, Technology &
B
Innovation, Legislation, and Environment. Place strong trends (those already
influencing mainstream society and from well-known sources) to the C Health data is
the new oil

bottom; they are the solid ground you build upon. Mark the more marginal
trends or weak signals to the top of the table; these are the uncertainties you
can play with.

It might not always be easy to categorise a trend, but don’t get too stuck on
the labels. The point is to make sure that you haven’t completely overlooked
any PESTLE category. If you have empty categories, do some more
scanning.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Use Case Trends

One way to jump into trend scanning is to start from a current use
case of your product or service. Analyse the components of the
situation and consider what needs to be in place for the use case to
stay as is? How might all those components change?

A. List the key components

Consider one important use case for your product today (e.g. people buy
snacks on their way home from work). Break it down into key components
by looking into tools, assistance, social conventions, belief system – be as
holistic as you dare. If you don’t understand these components well A
enough, you should invest in some user studies and background research.

B. Research trends about use cases

Scan for trends and signals that are related to each of your key
component (e.g. commuting decreases due to remote work, shopping for
B
groceries online increases, there is scarcity of some ingredient). Is your
current use case soon in crisis or will it still go strong?

C. Find the key changes

Look at the systemic changes around your use case. Select the most
urgent changes that you should either deal with as a threat or recognise as
an opportunity. Name the key changes.

C
2. Scenario building
Content
Scenarios help you deal with uncertainty. This
module walks you through the scenario creation
process. Use all the canvases in this module to
create different scenarios – and make sure you
create at least three scenarios.

Canvases
• Scenario Topics
• Alternative Outcomes
• Scenario Outline
• Scenario
• Scenario Learnings
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Scenario Topics

When you have done the PESTLE analysis in ‘Drivers of Change’ canvas,
it’s time to narrow down the findings and choose the topics you would
like to explore further. A good way to do this is affinity mapping; grouping
similar findings together and then naming the cluster. Search especially B
for topics that have a lot of uncertainty in them. C

A
A. Group similar findings
Start to group the trends from the ‘Drivers of Change’ canvas so that you
place similar drivers next to each other. This allows your research findings
guide your scenario work rather than your own preconceptions. Don’t
overlook uncertain trends or weak signals as they are great material for
scenarios.

B. Name the groups

Give each group a descriptive title (e.g. ‘basic income’). These groups will
become potential topics of your scenario work.

C. Choose the topics of focus

Choose 4–6 topics that will likely have a strong influence on your theme;
they form the backbone of your scenario work. A good scenario topic has
multiple possible outcomes (e.g. basic income which could manifest itself
e.g. as non-existent, low or high).

There is no need to include all the drivers of change you have found but to
prioritise. This doesn’t mean that your hard work hasn’t paid off; you can use
information about other drivers later to enrich your scenario stories.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Alternative Outcomes
B

Once you have selected your scenario topics, imagine the different
outcomes they could have in the future. You should find 2–4 alternative
outcomes for each topics.

A. Insert key topics A

Write the titles of the key topics you picked to the columns on the right side
of the canvas.

B. Identify alternative outcomes

Imagine what could be the situation with each of your topics in the end of
your timespan. Use the information you gathered in scanning phase to
create a range of possibilities. Write them on the rows after each topic.
(E.g. Topic: Basic income, Alternative outcomes: none, low basic income, high
basic income.)

C. Combine outcomes for creating scenarios

Build a scenario by combining one outcome from each row. Each
combination represents a different version of how the future can turn out.
Create at least three different combinations. Find ideas for the kinds of
scenarios you can make under the title ‘Types of scenarios’.
Use coloured post-its or pens to distinguish the different combinations from
each other. Make sure each combination is internally coherent enough so C
that your scenarios will be plausible.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Alternative Outcomes: Example

B Identify alternative outcomes C Combine outcomes for creating scenarios

Used Used Used Used Used Used Used Used

Role of A for X for Y for Z for W Role of A for X for Y for Z for W

Price of B €€€ €€ € Free Price of B €€€ €€ € Free

Level of C High Medium Low Level of C High Medium Low

Usage of D Yes No Usage of D Yes No

Number of E 1 2 3 4 Number of E 1 2 3 4

Very Quite Very Quite

Importance of F Moderate Low Importance of F Moderate Low
high high high high

Scenario #1: Business as usual

Scenario #2: Incremental change

Scenario #2: Radical change

THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Scenario Outline
A

Scenario outline explains how the outcomes you chose for each topic
will play out in the end of your timespan. As you need to create several
scenarios, you need several copies of this canvas.

A. Indicate your variant B D

You need several scenarios, so give each of them a number or a letter so
that you can distinguish them from each other. C

B. Insert key topics

Rewrite the titles of the topics you chose in the previous phase.

C. Insert outcomes
Write down or the outcomes you chose for this scenario in the canvas
Alternative Outcomes (e.g. high basic income).

D. Describe implications
Elaborate what each outcome would mean in practice. How is this outcome
affecting the world and the lives of people?

E. Consider the impacts of this scenario

Reflect on the impacts of this scenario: what are the biggest changes in this
E
scenario compared to the current day and who might it affect the most?
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Scenario
A

Scenario always includes a description of the future state and the

pathway there. This is the time to start imagining and get creative!
You need a copy of this canvas to each of your scenarios.

A. Indicate your variant

Remember to indicate the number or letter of each scenario.

B. Describe the future state B

What does this world look like as a whole when all the described
implications of different outcomes play out? Write a short and compelling
story that captures the essence of this world. And if it tickles your fancy,
draw a picture too!

C. Describe the pathway to the future world

Identify the key events, conditions, and triggers that are needed for the
described outcomes to happen (e.g. changes in legislation or power
C
dynamics) and estimate their timing and order. The easiest way to create a
pathway is by backcasting: work your way backwards from the future state
in the end of your timespan to the current day.

D. Name the scenario

When all the elements of a scenario – a description of the future state and
the pathway there – are in place, give a catchy name to your scenario. D
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Scenario Learnings

This canvas helps you look at your scenarios side by side and make
comparisons. How probable or preferable is each scenario? Which of
them is the most probable, which the most preferable? This light
analysis helps you to communicate your learnings to your peers who
would benefit from your insights. More thorough tools for analysis can A
be found in Module 4.

A. Capture key learnings from each outcome

First, assess the probability and preferability or each of your Scenarios on
a scale from 0 to 10. Then list the most important learnings from each.
If you have more than three scenarios, just use several copies of this
canvas.

B. Articulate your learnings

What are the insights you learned with this futures thinking project? What
would you like to share with everyone?

B
C. What can be done now?
As you remember, the point of futures thinking is not to predict the future
but to make better decisions about future today. What very concrete tasks
should the organisation take on to become more resilient about the things
you have found out about?
C
3. Exploration & Provotyping
Content
In this part, you will construct future worlds in an
experimental way by engaging your subconscious as
well as your analytical thinking.

Canvases
• ‘What If’ Questions
• Implication Mapping
• Provotype Planning
• Future Personas
• Future Things
• Provotype Drama
• Collaborative Provowriting
• Provotype Recap

Materials
• Future Cards
• Persona Images and Archetypes
• Provotype Formats
• Provotype Recap
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Future Cards (see Materials)

Use Future Cards to jump-start your exploration of the future.

In the card set, you will find Social Trends, Tech Trends and
Global Challenges. You can combine them to create intriguing
‘What If’ questions in the next canvas. It’s very advisable to do
an industry-specific trend research and add your findings as
new trend cards to the set.

Picking the cards

Combine 2 or 3 cards from different categories. You might start
with e.g. a technology, but the other card(s) should always be
from other categories. You’ll get far more outreaching results by
introducing also trending human behaviors or great planetary
challenges to your investigation.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

‘What If’ Questions

This canvas helps you to create balanced ‘What If’ questions that serve
as a starting point for your future exploration. When you are investigating
a certain business area or industry, select cards that are meaningful to
your theme but, when put together, create an exciting combination.

A. Choose the first trend or challenge

Is your theme mainly about technology, social development, or larger
challenges of human kind? Your first trend card should be quite central to
A
your area of interest. If your theme is very specific, start with your add-on
trend cards that you have created specifically for this investigation.
B
B. Add second trend or challenge
For the second card you should pick a trend that is not from the same
category than your first card. Add a card that forces you to look at your area C
from a perspective you usually overlook and explore a non-familiar territory.

C. Write your ‘What If’ question

When formulating your ‘What If’ question, try to include both of your driving
forces in a balanced way. If possible, include some kind of idea of the
volume of the change (“What if the majority of people …”, “What if 25% of our
national budget …”) or a remark of the surprising speed of the change to get
your creativity flowing.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Implication Mapping

The Futures Wheel is a well-organised way to explore the implications of

your ‘What If’ question, but it can be used to examine any problem or
idea you want to understand better. It allows you to map out possible or
probable consequences that follow from the starting point and to find
risks and opportunities that are unnoticeable to the majority of people.

A. Place your question into the center

This is your speculation, it’s the future state you want to explore.

B. Ideate direct implications A

Use PESTLE categories to ideate what would follow from your starting point
politically, economically, socially, technologically, legally and
environmentally. For the first ring, list very basic implications; otherwise you
risk to miss out some relevant insights. Nurture the creativity of your team B
by discussing each implication. Your team mates will need to feel confident
about the content to build on in the next phase.

C
C. Find second order implications
Look at your first order implications and discuss what would follow from
each of them. Connect the first and second order implications with a line; it
represents the causal link. You can create as many rings of implications as
you like.
D
D. The good, the badm and the noteworthy
Reflect on the outcomes. Which consequences in the outer rings are positive
and for whom? Which are negative? Which of them stand out for other
reasons?
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Implication Mapping: Example

B Direct implications C Second order implications

Write down the most obvious and direct consequences of your
future state. The simpler the ideas, the better.
Discuss your thoughts with your team when adding a post-it note.
Use collective intelligence and build upon each others’ ideas.
Now you can get more creative. For each direct implication, find a
consequence that results from it. Connect the causal links. You
can create further rings if you like. Note that people often start to
list conditions that would need to be there for the thing to happen
instead of implications and consequences. Stay focused and
always think of the next step that would follow from the previous.

People might You might

end up have to be A global war
contaminated. recycled at for silicon
Who is some point breaks out New
accountable regulations
for resulting around health
health issues? data are
More silicon necessary

More silicon necessary

necessary than ever
Data leaks
than ever before Decision
and hacks are
Your body is before a possibility Your body is makers need
full of metals / full of metals / to prove their
minerals / minerals / excellent
optical fibers Your biodata optical fibers health state
might be Hacking
The health accessed by The health politicians will
People’s data of public people other than People’s data of public become a
health data is figures just you and health data is figures sports for tech
sent via the becomes a health sent via the becomes a savvy
internet topic of profesisionals internet topic of teenagers
interest interest
What if your body What if your body
was always was always
connected to the connected to the
internet with 1000s internet with 1000s
Everyone’s of sensors? Everyone’s of sensors?
Health data is Most diseases Health data is Big shift from
health data health data Health data
the new oil could be the new oil healing
can be can be trading
detected and towards
analysed analysed becomes the
cured in prevention
hottest thing
early-stage
Big Big
People can investments People can investments
monitor their into health monitor their into health
Medical can
current physical industry are current physical industry are
make faster
(and mental?) made (and mental?) made
progress
state at any time. state at any time.
thanks to
people’s data

Many new and

New types of innovative
apps, alarms services pop
Monitoring the
and up
data might make People might
notifications are
people anxious compare
necessary
or turn into an themselves
obsession based on People with
health data problematic
data need to
Stigma around pay a lot for
negative insurance
health data
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Provotyping

By challenging ourselves to think about the details of a

particular future and dive into situation that involves
human beings and their emotions, we find ourselves
“below the experiential threshold”.

This allows us to experience the future as real, empathise

with future personas and find risks and opportunities that
hide in the details. It’s almost like conducting a user
research – only that the users don’t exist yet.

In LFC we do this by provotyping. Provotypes or design

fictions are products, services, situations, physical spaces,
or messages from the future. They can be used to facilitate
deep discussions about future expectations of our key
stakeholders.

Things from future can be crafted for fun, but in LFC we

use them to add another, speculative layer of reflection to
our futures work. It’s an engaging way to find out what is
expected from our organisation, services, or products now
and in the future.

Experiential Futures Ladder, adapted from Stuart Candy

THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Provotype Planning
Use this canvas to plan your provotyping process. You can create Future
Personas and Future Things, but they become provotypes only when you
use them to gather more insights about the future.

A
A. Investigate your theme
Investigate your problem space through PESTLE analysis or some other
methods described in previous modules.

B. Clarify your target and hypotheses B

Make it clear for yourself what part(s) of the future you want to understand
more deeply. It pays off to write down your expectations as hypotheses and
go through them later when you’ve learned more.

C. Create props and a script D

In this module, you’ll find tools for ideating your future personas, things, and
events that you can use to make future tangible.

D. Plan participation and insight gathering

Working with props and scripts is fun, but remember that you are in it to C
make your participants reflect and ideate. Don’t make your future too ready,
but leave parts where your stakeholders can add ideas, innovate solutions,
and talk about their preferences.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Future Personas

To make your work deeper and more meaningful, you should populate
your futures with living beings. This canvas helps you to create three
personas with different stakes at play in the worlds you have built.

A. Create Personas 1, 2 and 3

Create three personas that have a stake at play – something to lose or win in A
your future setting. Draw or find an image for the characters and add some
demographic information.

B. Describe their lifestyles

Enrich your personas by adding details about their lives; where do they live, B
what’s their relation to working life, and what are their habits and interests.

C. Show their stakes in the game

Describe what is in stake for your personas in regard to the key
characteristics of your future. What is there for them to win or lose? What
C
are their fears and hopes?

D. Give them a role to play

Define their role within your future world – what would they try to achieve?
How would their paths cross? What do they represent to each other?
Why would they end up partnering or conflicting with each other? D
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Persona Images and Archetypes (see Materials)

If you need help in creating interesting future personas for your

provotype, you can use the Persona Images and Persona
Archetypes found in the Materials.

Persona Images
The Persona Images are there to remind that you should
challenge yourself to empathise with people that are different
from you, who have a different age range, gender, field of work,
or that could have a differing value set from yours.

Persona Archetypes
The Persona Archetype coins help you create personas that,
based on their personality, would most likely take different kinds
of actions in your future world. The coins summarise the goals
and desires of your persona in one simple graphic. Choose one
per persona.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Future Things

This canvas helps you ideate how you could make parts of your future
tangible. Tangible physical things are a great way to speed up
discussions about your future visions and deep dive into the beliefs and
expectations of your audiences.
A

A. Set the stage

In your research plan, you have created a geographical setting and a
timeframe for your futures work. Does this still hold? Define the country and
region as well as the year in the future you want to examine.

B. Ideate future things

This is where you brainstorm a long list of things that could exist in the world
you have built. The goal here is to turn your most interesting abstract
findings into tangible artifacts. Use the suggestions in the cloud for
inspiration. If you do this in team, collect ideas in silence for a few minutes,
then share and vote for the one you would like to take further. Give your
B
future thing a catchy title. Note: No magic allowed; under-the-radar
technologies and sociopolitical developments should be thought-provoking
enough.

C. Analyse the consequences

Now that you have decided on your future thing and it’s name, analyse its
characteristics. What could go wrong with the thing? What is lovable about C
the thing? This reflection takes you forward to imagining future events and
happenings.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Tangible Provotypes (No canvas)

In provotyping, it’s important to not only imagine future things but to make them tangible. It’s a very good idea to craft real future artifacts,
user interfaces, and sales pitch decks, while also carefully planning how they will be introduced to your larger collaborative group.

Go quick-and-dirty with the tangible part: use some trivial objects and basic crafts materials around you. When your team mates notice that
this is not about art or full-blown science-fiction, they’ll be glad to fill in the gaps with their imagination. This is exactly what we want.

A. Look at objects
It’s interesting to “consult things” and to imagine the kinds of roles they might play in your provotype sessions.
Truly looking at objects through futurist’s lenses can lead to great insights. However, keep in mind the
phenomenon you are researching. So state here what do you want to stage and what do you need the props
for.

B. Make, modify and reuse

Challenge yourself to tell a big story with everyday materials. You still need to be witty and to the point –
content is the king here. Here are some ideas for your process:

• Look at the objects around you. What could they “double as” in your plan?
• How far could you go with your basic craft store supplies? (Far!)
• Can you buy food or other retail stuff and just make it more futuristic with “new branding”?
• Do you need to create logos for organizations or services that do not yet exist?
• Do you have PPT slides or figma files that you could use as basis for your more futuristic UIs sales pitches or
AI interaction?
• Can people play the part of complex services in your plan?
• Would it be useful to create a miniature model of a future scene by using legos and materials laying around?
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Provotype Drama

Use this simple structure for creating a bit of drama to your future world.
If you have a scenario, use that as the context. Insert your future
personas and things and make something interesting happen between
them. The story you create will allow you to understand better the A
phenomena you are dealing with in your futures work.

A. Background work
Refer here to the background work (e.g. Scenario or ‘What if’ question) your
story is based on.

B. Create a conflict
This story format will help you to create a conflict story that involves two
personas. If you’ve invented a future thing, import it into the story. You can
B
enact the drama for your stakeholders so that they understand what is at
stake.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Collaborative Provowriting

Futures work is at its best collaborative and engaging. With this canvas you
can make the innovative process deeply participatory with four participants.
Each of them adds their ideas to each of the four storylines. Collaboration
is efficient, most likely adds surprises to the storyline, and results in insights
you might not have gotten otherwise.
A
A. Background work
Refer here to the background work (e.g. Scenario or ‘What If’ question) your
story is based on. B My first (almost perfect) household robot

B. Give the stories a common title

C When I first reported the
problems with the jealousy
It started around two months
ago. I realised the
Alpha-Pi-7 just wouldn't
When my first GHZ89x
passed away, I just couldn't
I can feel that something
strange happens in my flat
You will soon write four stories about the same theme together. Ideal title would to the support hotline,
no-one took my concerns
seriously.
allow me to make any
decisions on my own
cope. I spent a week curled
up on the floor of my dark
living room.
when I'm gone. It's the smell
... it reminds me of …
anymore.

be thought-provoking and point to a gap (as in the example “almost perfect”)

that you can’t wait to study further by writing together. D

C. Story beginnings (1–4)

The facilitator writes the opening for each story. This makes sure that you end
up studying different facets of the phenomenon. Add some tension to the first
sentence. Don’t over-define the end-result.

D. Provowrite together
The four participants now have their starting points. Building on that, each will
write the next part of their story. During the next rounds, they will read the parts
already written on their right-hand column and write a new part. Remember, this
is only synopsis – it’s a description rather than literature. The story needs to
have a resolution in the fifth story piece. Make it interesting and fun!
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Provotype Formats (see Materials)

Opportunities to play out scenes from future are endless. In

Materials, you can find canvases for creating news, gossip, and
manuals from future. Remember that you can also do future panel
discussions, future Ted Talks, or just scenes from everyday life.

Provotype Formats: News

With news piece, you can show exciting changes as something
normal. As it is only a detailed glimpse from the future, it invites you
to imagine the world where it came from.

Provotype Formats: Gossip

Another way of normalising the future is to imagine the gossip
people might have in your future. Remember, all these formats need
a good background work. So do your Scenarios, Future Personas,
Things and Drama to make your gossip really juicy.

Provotype Formats: Manual

Innovations often happen in the intersection of vast knowledge,
inspiring opportunities – and when having fun. Creating an IKEA type
of manual about your Future Thing is a great way to get your
audience talking more deeply about it and to set the atmosphere to
the fun side.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Provotype Recap

Summarise your future prop by giving it a catchy name and a

description. What is its purpose, who will use it and by doing what?
Then evaluate its probability, plausibility, or possibility.

A. Name your future thing

A
Give it an original and self-explanatory name. Have fun with it!

B. Describe your provotype

Then, simply fill in the blanks in the text describing your future thing. Try to
reduce it to its essentials so it becomes easy for outsiders to understand the
core idea.
B
C. Assess its likelihood
Reflect on the process where you created your personas and story about the
future. Based on your experience, assess how likely this kind of future is to
happen and mark the place in the rings of the future cone. Futures in the
center ring are the most probable, like a linear extension of the present.
Futures in the outer rings are less likely to happen but might have just as
C
much of an impact and need the same attention as the center ones.
4. Evaluation & Roadmap
Content
Whether your futures work was broad or light, you
must close the loop and implement your findings in
your strategy and roadmaps.

Canvases
• Light Analysis
• Executive Analysis
• Strategic Connections
• Strategic Alternatives
• Strategic Commitments
• Systemic Evaluation
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Light Analysis

If you’re fine with a light analysis on your futures works, whether they
were scenarios, a bunch of interesting answers to ‘What if’ questions,
or deep conversations with provotypes, use this canvas. Make
separate copies of this canvas to analyse each future path you’ve
created.
A

A. Reflect on opportunities
B
If the future plays out as described in this future outcome, what
opportunities will it bring to your organisation?

B. Reflect on threats
What about threats that this future outcome poses to your organisation?

C. How to grasp the opportunities?

What could you do in order to make the most of the opportunities this
C
future outcome has to offer? List all the actions you can think of.

D. How to prevent the threats?

D
What should you do to shelter your organisation from the threats, or at
least minimise their impact? List the actions you can think of.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Executive Analysis
If you need a more thorough examination of your future work, use this
canvas instead of the Light Analysis. It help you make better business
decisions about future today.

A. What will change

Describe how your theme will change in the timespan you have selected.
A

B. Opportunity areas for our business

B
What will this change mean to your business? What kind of opportunities lie
ahead?

C. Start-ups to watch
How does the start-up scene look like? What are the interesting new players C
in your field?

D
D. Tech enabling the shift
What are the technologies that enable the shift? How much do they cost?
How fast will they be adapted in your region?

E. Market outlook E
What is the total market for your particular area? What are the early
investment trends? What is the special focus?
F

F. Indicators of change
What are the most significant indicators of change supporting your analysis?
Think of political, economical, societal, technological, legal, and
environmental and also cultural indicators.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Strategic Connections

Cross-examine the outcomes of your futures work (e.g. scenarios,

provotypes) against your current strategic functions. Most likely you will
find areas where you should be better prepared or where you have new
opportunities to consider. A

A. List your future works B

Each column represents a set of future work you have created (e.g. Scenario 1,
Scenario 2, Scenario 3). Name them accordingly.

B. List your business critical functions

List your key strategies, functions, and business units in the column on the
left. Select the most relevant functions.

C. Evaluate impact
Cross-examine how your current set-up holds against the future outcomes you
have created. Are your key functions weak, neutral, or strong? If one of your
strategies or functions would not be much affected by the scenario, give it a
zero. If your function would perform well in the future scenario, give it 1
(satisfying) or 2 (strong). If your current strategy or function is weak in the
future scenario, give it –1 (unsatisfying) or –2 (weak). Do this evaluation for all
your future outcomes. You are likely to have a winning strategy in your
C
‘business-as-usual’ scenario (if you’ve created one), but other scenarios might
reveal potential weaknesses.
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Strategic Alternatives

When you have found your Strategic Connections, you should consider how
your weakest performing areas could be improved. Keep in mind your
company’s vision and position. Are you a risk taker or do you want to play it
safe?

A
A. List your business critical functions
List your key strategies, functions, and business units in the column on the left.
B
B. Your futures outcomes
In the previous exercise, you learned how your key areas would perform in the
future state. Discuss how they should change to perform better. Note that you
are not yet making decisions at this phase, so keep an open mind and discuss
the options.

C. Evaluation
Reflect on your current vision and strategy. What are the elements you want to
keep?

D. Voting
Vote which changes in your vision and strategy you would commit to.
C

D
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Strategic Commitments

Decide which of the identified actions you will actually commit to, define
who will be in charge for carrying them out, and set a deadline for those
actions. This is your quick-and-dirty roadmap to become future-fit.

A
A. Actions to commit to
Based on your voting list the items you will commit to in a proritised order.
This list can be anything from 2 to 20 rows. Decide who will be the topic owner
and select deadlines for your action points..
THE LEAN FUTURES CREATION HANDBOOK

Systemic Evaluation

Use this canvas to evaluate whether your futures work (e.g. scenario,
provotype) is preferable beyond the limits and goals of your organisation.
Consider the economic, social, and environmental issues.

A. Describe the benefits A

What kinds of economic, social, and environmental benefits and
opportunities exist in the future you have created?

B. Summarise the risks

In the first field, collect a list of economic, social, and environmental risks
your futures work reveals. In the second field, identify the main risk for each
category. In the third field, ideate how to mitigate this key risk. B

C. Decide on a preferability level for each pillar

Looking at the risks and benefits in each pillar, how would you rate the
preferability of the future you have created?