DATE: 3 April 2024

NAME: Nurfarhanah Athirah Binti Abd Aziz (ID : 5521286)

AGENCY National Security Council - Secretary of State
Memorandum for the President
SUBJECT: RUSSIAN AGGRESSIVE TACTICS AGAINST LATVIA
___________________________________________________________________________

This paper aims to elucidate the conflicts between Latvia and Russia, focusing on urgent matters,
to advise the President of the National Security Council regarding potential NATO actions.

INTRODUCTION :

Rodina, an emerging faction within Latvia’s ethnic Russian political party, Harmony, has
reached out to nationalist groups in Russia. Strikes in Russian-majority towns turned violent,
prompting the Latvian Prime Minister to declare martial law after a Russian special operations
unit established a command center in one of the factories. The buildup of roughly 15,000
Russian troops near the Latvian border, following Moscow's intervention in Ukraine, is
concerning.

The current circumstances necessitate addressing the following questions: As a fellow member
of NATO,1 Latvia has invoked Article 5, fulfilling its statutory obligation to notify the NSC of
the current situation.2 Now, the focus lies on determining whether the United States should
activate collective defense measures under Article 5 of NATO. If the answer is affirmative, the
US and its allies are responsible for executing appropriate measures until resolution. This entails
maintaining a delicate balance between diplomatic engagement, close coordination with NATO
allies, and transparent communication with Congress. The objective is to demonstrate Western
unity while avoiding actions that could exacerbate tensions further.

OBJECTIVES :

In the context of the Latvia-Russia conflicts, my capacity to the President, as the Secretary of
State, I am answerable to the following formulations :3

Firstly, to brief the developments in Latvia and neighboring countries and to unfold causal roots
together with the expected intricacies behind the emergence of Rodina within Latvia's ethnic
Russian political party, Harmony, and its affiliations with nationalist factions in Russia.
Secondly, to inform my rapid assessment of strategic recommendations on diplomatic endeavors

1
NATO. (2024). Protocol to the North Atlantic Treaty on the accession of the Republic of Latvia. NATO. Article
I & II. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_20319.htm

2
NATO. (1949, April 4). The North Atlantic Treaty. NATO. Article 5.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm

3
Duties of the secretary of State - United States Department of State. U.S. Department of State. (n.d.).
https://www.state.gov/duties-of-the-secretary-of-state/

1
and potential negotiations aimed at addressing security challenges arising from the presence of
a Russian special operations unit and the escalating military buildup near the Latvian border,
based on critical analysis of global events. Thirdly, to extensively counsel potential policy insights
and effective strategies to protect U.S. interests and promote stability in the Baltic region.
Fourthly, to ensure close collaboration with other senior administration officials to establish a
coherent and unified approach in addressing the conflicts and advance U.S. foreign policy
objectives. Additionally, I also assume the role of primary adviser on U.S. foreign policy matters,
conducting negotiations related to foreign affairs, and interpreting and applying relevant clauses
of bilateral treaties, agreements, and foreign policies involving NATO and its allies vis-à-vis
Russian interests, as appropriate.

ANALYSIS :

Latvia is no longer a small state with limited foreign policy options as it was during the inter-war
between itself and other Baltic states with neighboring powers like Russia, Germany, and
Poland.4 The establishment of a command center by a Russian special operations unit and the
buildup of troops near the Latvian border are deemed as an armed attack directed against Latvia,
then it could trigger the invocation of NATO’s Article 5. 5

The enduring history of Latvia-Russia's deteriorating relationship and diplomatic ties stems from
numerous events. 6 Particularly, regarding citizenship for around 242,000 Latvian residents,
primarily Russian-speaking immigrants who have been denied citizenship since 1991 and
categorized as "non-citizens." This population faces discrimination7 and pressures for
assimilation. Additionally, Latvia's annual ceremonies to honor former Waffen-SS members and
their supporters present another challenge. Furthermore, amidst developments in Ukraine,
Latvia has escalated anti-Russia rhetoric and unfriendly actions, advocating for increased NATO
presence in the Baltic region. Despite potential drawbacks to its interests, Latvia consistently calls
for stringent measures against Russia, aligning with the USA and the EU. However, it is unfair
to assume that Latvia instigates all these unpleasant incidents before thoroughly investigating
their underlying causes. Since Latvia declared independence in 1990, the Latvia-Russia
relationship has been marked by a complex interplay of historical legacies and divergent foreign
policy objectives. While Latvia pursued integration into Western democratic institutions like
NATO and the EU driven by shared values, Russia grappled with defining its post-Soviet identity

4
GALBREATH, D. J. (2006, December). Latvian Foreign Policy after Enlargement Continuity and Change (thesis).
Journal of the Nordic International Studies Association, 444. https://www.jstor.org/stable/45084476?seq=2

5
LeBlanc, P. (2022, March 7). Here’s what nato’s article 5 is and how it applies to russia’s invasion of ukraine.
CNN. Retrieved March 31, 2024, from https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/politics/what-is-nato-article-
5/index.html.

6
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. (n.d.). Bilateral relations. The Ministry of Foreign
Affairs of the Russian Federation. Retrieved March 31, 2024, from https://mid.ru/en/maps/lv/. See at the page's
right corner and click at "Bilateral relations".

7
(2022, December 29). Maria Zakharova’s comment on the inhuman treatment of migrants by the Latvian and Lithuanian
authorities. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russian Federation. https://mid.ru/en/maps/lv/1846070/

2
and security posture. The presence of Russian troops in Latvia and opposing foreign policy
principles led to asymmetrical relations, with tensions escalating in the late 1990s over Latvia's
NATO and EU aspirations. It is incumbent upon the US, NATO, and their allies to engage in
addressing this issue to divert Russia's attention from further exacerbating or prolonging the
situation.8

PROBLEMS & RECOMMENDATION

Military Aspects

Article 5 of NATO mandates NATO's collective defense yet does not automatically trigger war.
It grants flexibility for diplomatic NATO’s calibrated responses.9 NATO must stand firm and
resolute, sending a clear message to potential aggressors that any attack on NATO’s territory will
be met with swift and decisive action.10 While Latvia may seem small individually, its significance
lies in NATO's steadfast pledge to safeguard the sovereignty and security of all member states.
Should Russia choose to challenge this commitment, it would face an overwhelming and united
response from NATO allies, including Latvia’s closest neighbours, Poland and Finland. With
NATO's superior firepower, advanced technology, and strategic planning, any incursion by
Russia would ultimately result in its defeat and significant losses. By not invoking Article 5 of
NATO, it is equivalent to underestimating Russia and this will result with prompt Moscow to
test NATO's resolve, potentially targeting the alliance's weakest link, the Baltic states, militarily. 11

Undoubtedly, the rapid deployment of US forces to Latvia within a maximum timeframe of 7

days puts Moscow under immense pressure to act swiftly. In anticipation of such urgency, NATO
must proactively announce military assistance measures like the Rapid Reaction Forces and
Enhanced Forward Presence. By demonstrating our readiness and resolve to swiftly reinforce
Latvia's defense, we send a clear message to Moscow that any aggressive actions will be met with
a unified and formidable response. This proactive stance not only guarantees Latvia's security
but also strengthens NATO's deterrence posture, ensuring peace and stability in the region. In
2024, the United Kingdom assumes leadership of NATO's rapid response force, signalling its

8
Muižnieks, N. (Ed.). (2006). Latvian-Russian Relations: Domestic and International Dimensions, 87–97.
https://doi.org/ISBN 9984-802-10-8

9
Bernal, R. (2022, November 15). The hill. Retrieved March 31, 2024, from
https://thehill.com/policy/international/3736968-what-is-article-5-of-the-nato-treaty/.

10
U.S. Department of State, Secretary Antony J. Blinken and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a Joint
Press Availability (2024), paragraph 9. Retrieved March 31, 2024, from https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-
blinken-and-nato-secretary-general-jens-stoltenberg-at-a-joint-press-availability-
3/#:~:text=Some%20of%20those%20capabilities%20and,square%20inch%20of%20NATO%20territory.

11
Kuhn, U. (n.d.). CONSEQUENCES For NATO. In NATO Playbook : Preventing Escalation in the Baltics (pp. 24).
essay, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved March 31, 2024, from
https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Kuhn_Baltics_INT_final_WEB.pdf.

3
collective strength against Russian aggression.12 The Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) forms a
crucial part of our national security strategy, with four battlegroups strategically stationed in
Eastern Europe, now led by Germany, the UK, Canada, and the US. Backed by twelve NATO
allies, the EFP acts as a strong deterrent. Alongside NATO force integration units (NFIUs), it
ensures rapid and effective response capabilities. In the event of conflict, the Graduated
Response Plan, supported by the US through the European Deterrence Initiative, reinforces
combat brigades and pre-positions of military equipment in Europe. Prioritizing and using these
‘tools’ are essential to ensure the safety and prosperity of the United States and our allies.13

Economic Sanction

Latvia's transition from a Soviet-controlled economy to the EU's fastest-growing economy by

2006 involved comprehensive integration into the global economic arena via trade, foreign direct
investment (FDI), and active participation in key international organizations. While primary
trade partners were within the EU, significant economic ties with Russia endured, contributing
2.6% to GDP in 2005, particularly in the machinery and raw materials sectors. Despite
occasional political tensions, analyses revealed no significant disruptions in trade between Latvia
and Russia, indicating normal commercial relations. Additionally, energy relations evolved from
initial disruptions to normalization, driven partly by the logic of energy transit through Baltic
ports. However, recent energy projects raised concerns over increased dependency and
geopolitical maneuvers by Russia, prompting Latvia to seek a balanced approach. Nonetheless,
EU-funded programs like INTERREG facilitate cross-border collaboration.14

Amidst economic challenges, Latvia exhibits remarkable resilience in its foreign and security
strategies, emphasizing regional cooperation and democratic reforms. As NATO allies, it is
imperative to acknowledge and preserve Latvia's security efforts. We must ensure stability and
sovereignty, countering evolving geopolitical complexities. Limiting diplomatic ties is not merely
about escalating tensions, it is a strategic maneuver to curb Russia's influence in nations like
Latvia.

Social and Political Constraints

The issue of a border treaty with Russia, including the Abrene District,15 remains unresolved due
to historical grievances and differing interpretations of history and legal frameworks. Internal

12
North Atlantic Treaty Organization, UK to lead NATO’s 2024 rapid response force (2023). Retrieved March
31, 2024, from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_221565.htm.

13
Kuhn, U. (n.d.). CONSEQUENCES For NATO. In NATO Playbook : Preventing Escalation in the Baltics (pp. 27).
essay, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved March 31, 2024, from
https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Kuhn_Baltics_INT_final_WEB.pdf.

14
Muižnieks, N. (Ed.). (2006). Latvian-Russian Relations: Domestic and International Dimensions, 98-157.
https://doi.org/ISBN 9984-802-10-8

15
Levus, D. (2023, August 16). The Unfinished Story of Latvia’s Abrene. The Gaze. March 31, 2024,
https://thegaze.media/news/the-unfinished-story-of-latvias-abrene

4
consensus within Latvia on demands against Russia poses a significant obstacle to treaty
resolution. Downsizing Russian missions applies pressure, crucial in countering hybrid warfare
and securing future diplomatic ties.16

It's crucial for NATO and its allies, to urge Latvia to confront its ethnic divisions and societal
tensions with the assistance of local civil society. Establishing a forum for inter-ethnic
reconciliation is paramount, pursue dialogue and mutual understanding among communities.17
Especially in Latgale, presents significant hurdles for us, NATO and its allies, in our quest for
democratic consolidation. Ethnic tensions compound these issues, visible in divergent views on
key matters like EU membership and language recognition. Although separatist sentiments in
Latgale are marginal, concerns persist about Russian influence and hybrid warfare tactics
fostering division. We must proceed with caution to avoid abrupt demographic changes that may
inadvertently empower pro-Russian political factions 18

Leveraging its open, democratic society, Latvia must navigate its media landscape to ‘combat’ the
Russian model of hybrid warfare, avoiding misleading and disinformation effectively. Supporting
civil society initiatives and enhancing media content can empower Russian speakers to access
diverse viewpoints and resist propaganda. 19 Key institutions like the NATO Stratcom Center of
Excellence in Riga and the Baltic Centre for Media Excellence require ongoing backing from
Latvia, the United States, and NATO.20

16
Review of The russo-ukraine war: the implications for the security of finland and latvia by Ieva Bērziņa, Sari Voinoff.
(2024, February 6). Finnish Defence Research Agency Research Bulletin 2–2024, 7–9. Retrieved March 31, 2024, from
https://puolustusvoimat.fi/documents/1951253/2815786/2024-
2_Russo_Ukraine_war_implications_for_security_Finland_Latvia.pdf/b596dab6-16d7-f465-91bc-
08c20c207020/2024-2_Russo_Ukraine_war_implications_for_security_Finland_Latvia.pdf?t=1707284733532.

17
deChauny, C. O. (n.d.). RUSSIAN HYBRID WARFARE IN THE BALTICS: AN EXAMINATION OF
MOSCOW’S OPERATING ENVIRONMENT IN ESTONIA AND LATVIA, at page 16.
https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/06c460f9-a230-4302-a895-4e08878fd985/content

18
Pridham, G. (2018). Latgale and Latvia’s post-Soviet democracy: the territorial dimension of regime
consolidation. East European Politics, 34(2), at page 205-208. Advance online
publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2018.1457956

19
Aleksandrova, O., & Dodonov, R. (n.d.). Information warfare: future challenges of Latvia and Ukraine. Skhid.
https://doi.org/10.21847/1728-9343.2018.5(157).148661

20
Kramer, F. D., & Speranza, L. M. (2017). MEETING THE RUSSIAN HYBRID CHALLENGE : A
COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK. Atlantic Council Policy on Intellectual Independence, 1–3.
https://doi.org/978-1-61977-415-5

5
CONCLUSION

Given their size, Latvia rely on collective defense for security, given Russia's military might.
NATO solidarity is paramount, requiring diplomatic efforts to demonstrate ally unity.
Addressing differing perceptions of the Russian threat regionally is vital. Latvia must educate
NATO counterparts without firsthand experience of Russian aggression. Strengthening regional
cooperation among vulnerable NATO members, like Baltic states, is crucial to deter and counter
Russian aggression. Enhanced relations with allies are significant in resisting hybrid and
potential military assaults.

(1601 words)

6
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