MATHEMATICS 11

STATISTICS

TOPIC:
PROBABILITY

Prepared By:
Mr. Emerson T. Santos

PROBABILITY
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 Welcome learners! I’m back. Again, I’m going to guide you in our new lesson
about probability.
In the previous module, we have seen that the principles of counting and
combination play a major role in this lesson. Now, this module invites you to engage
in the theory of probability which was developed from the games of chance. At
present, it has a wide and important application in the fields of insurance, annuities,
and social sciences. For example, you might talk about the probability that a bus will
arrive on time is 90 percent, or that a child-to-be-born will be a son is 50% or that the
stock market will go up is 60%, and so on. These statements give some general
information.

Directions : On your notebook, answer the following word problems:

1. What is the probability that a head will appear when a coin is tossed?

2. If an ordinary die is rolled once, what is the probability that the top surface
shows as 5?

3. From a deck of 52 cards, a card is drawn at random. What is the probability that
the card is:
a. a spade?
b. a king?
c. black suit?
d. a face card?

Be Linked!
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 What is probability? How does it happen in our lives? When are
the odds in my favor? How can I know what to expect inside
something without looking in there first? How likely/unlikely is the
outcome? What are the chances? How do you know? It would be very
confusing, right? So, before we get totally confused, let us study about
probability and learn its importance.

These days, we hear more and more about statistics. Statistics is based
on probability.

Problem: A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green, and red.
What are the chances of landing on yellow? blue ? green? red?

This problem asks us to find some probabilities involving a spinner. Let's look at
some definitions and examples from the problem above.

Definition Example
An experiment is a situation involving chance In the problem above, the
or probability that leads to results called experiment is spinning the
outcomes. spinner.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of an The possible outcomes are
experiment. landing on yellow, blue, green or
red.
An event is one or more outcomes of an One event of this experiment is
experiment. landing on blue.
Probability is the measure of how likely an The probability of landing on
event is. blue is one fourth.

In order to measure probabilities, mathematicians have devised the following

formula for finding the probability of an event.

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 Probability of an Event
The Number of Ways Event A Can Occur = n (E)
P(A) =
The total number of Possible Outcomes n (S)

The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur

divided by the total number of possible outcomes.

Let's take a look at a slight modification of the problem from the top of the page.

Experiment 1: A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red.
After spinning the spinner, what is the probability of landing on each color?

Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are yellow, blue, green, and red.

Probabilities: P(yellow) = # of ways to land on yellow = 1

total # of colors 4

P(blue) = # of ways to land on blue = 1

total # of colors 4

P(green) = # of ways to land on green = 1

total # of colors 4

P(red) = # of ways to land on red = 1

total # of colors 4

Experiment 2: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of each outcome?
What is the probability of rolling an even number? of rolling an odd number?

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Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.

Probabilities: P(1) = # of ways to roll a 1 = 1

total # of sides 6

P(2) = # of ways to roll a 2 = 1

total # of sides 6

P(3) = # of ways to roll a 3 = 1

total # of sides 6

P(4) = # of ways to roll a 4 = 1

total # of sides 6

P(5) = # of ways to roll a 5 = 1

total # of sides 6

P(6) = # of ways to roll a 6 = 1

total # of sides 6

P(even) = # ways to roll an even number = 3 = 1

total # of sides 6 2

P(odd) = # ways to roll an odd number =3 =1

total # of sides 6 2

Experiment 2 illustrates the difference between an outcome and an event.

A single outcome of this experiment is rolling a 1, or rolling a 2, or rolling a 3, etc.
Rolling an even number (2, 4 or 6) is an event, and rolling an odd number (1, 3 or 5) is
also an event.

In Experiment 1, the probability of each outcome is always the same. The

probability of landing on each color of the spinner is always one fourth.
In Experiment 2, the probability of rolling each number on the die is always one sixth.
In both of these experiments, the outcomes are equally likely to occur.
Let's look at an experiment in which the outcomes are not equally likely.

Experiment 3: A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3 yellow marbles. If a
single marble is chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability of choosing a
red marble? a green marble? a blue marble? a yellow marble?
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Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are red, green, blue, and yellow.

Probabilities: P(red) = # of ways to choose red = 6 = 3

total # of marbles 22 11

P(green) = # of ways to choose green = 5

total # of marbles 22

P(blue) = # of ways to choose blue = 8 = 4

total # of numbers 22 11

P(yellow) = # of ways to choose yellow = 3

total # of numbers 22

Experiment 4: Choose a number at random from 1 to 5. What is the probability of

each outcome? What is the probability that the number chosen is even? What is the
probability that the number chosen is odd?

Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.

Probabilities: P(1) = # of ways to choose a 1 = 1

total # of numbers 5

P(2) = # of ways to choose a 2 = 1

total # of numbers 5

P(3) = # of ways to choose a 3 = 1

total # of numbers 5

P(4) = # of ways to choose a 4 = 1

total # of numbers 5

P(5) = # of ways to choose a 1 = 1

total # of numbers 5

P(even) = # ways to choose an even number = 2

total # of sides 5
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 P(odd) = # ways to choosel an odd number = 3
total # of sides 5

The outcomes in this experiment are not equally likely to occur. You are
more likely to choose a blue marble than any other color. You are least likely to
choose a yellow marble.

The outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are equally likely to occur as a result of

this experiment. However, the events even and odd are not equally
likely to occur, since there are three odd numbers and only two even numbers
from 1 to 5.

Read and study additional examples.

Example 5:
In picking out a single card from a standard deck of 52 cards, what is the
probability of picking (a) a three of hearts? (b) an ace? (c) a diamond? (d) a face?
Solution:
(a) a three of hearts
Since there is only one three of hearts in a standard deck of 52 cards, then
1
P (3) = -----
52
(b) an ace
There are four aces in a standard deck of 52 cards. These are the ace of hearts,
ace of diamond, ace of spade and ace of cloves. Hence the probability of picking an
ace is
4 1
P (ace) = ---- = -----
52 13
(c) a diamond

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 A standard deck of 52 cards has 13 cards of each suit. These are the ace, 2, 3,
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen and King. Since there are 13 diamond cards, then
the probability of picking a card with the diamond suit is

13 1

P( ◊) = ------ = -----
52 4

(d) a face card

A face is either a Jack, Queen or King. Since there are three faces of four
different suits, then there are 12 faces in a deck of 52 cards and the probability of
picking out a face is
12 3
P (Face) = ----- = ------
52 13

Example 6:

Two dice are rolled simultaneously. Find the probability that the sum of the spots
on the two top faces is 8.

Solution:
For this problem, E = {2+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+2} and n(E) = 5. There are six
ways for a die to fall. Therefore, for each way one die has a particular face up, there
are six ways for the second die to have a face up. Hence, s(E) = 6 . 6 = 36 and
n (E) 5
P (sum is 8) = --------- = -----
n (S) 36

Example 7:
A committee of 4 persons is to be chosen from a group of 6 men and 7 women.
What is the probability that the committee shall be made up of 2 men and 2women?

Solution:
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 The number of elements of the sample space is the number of groups of four
that may be formed from 13 people. Hence,
n(S) = C(13, 4)
13 !
= ---------------
4! (13 – 4) !

13 ● 12 ● 11 ● 10) ● (9!)
= --------------------------------
4! (9!)
= 715

There are C(6,2) possible ways to form a pair of men from 6 men and
C(7,2) possible ways to form a pair of women from 7 women. Hence, the number of
ways a committee of 2 men and 2 women can be formed is

n(E) = C (6, 2) ● C (7, 2)

6! 7!
= ------- ● -------
2! 4! 2! 5!
= 315

Hence, the probability that a committee made up of 2 men and 2 women can be
formed from 7 and six men is
315 63
P(E) = ----- = ---------
715 143

Now, read and analyze the different properties of probability below.

PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY:
1. P(E) is always between zero and one; that is, 0 < P(E) < 1.
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 For example : In the problem given above, the answer for examples 1 to 4
together with examples 6 to 8 are all between zero and one.

2. The sum of the probabilities of all the simple events is 1 ; that is,
P(E1) + P(E2) + … + P(En) = 1
For Example : In rolling a die, the sample space is 6.
1 1
P(1) = ----- P(2) = -----
6 6
1 1
P(3) = ----- P(4) = -----
6 6
1 1
P(5) = ----- P(6) = -----
6 6
Hence,
P(1) + P(2) + P(3) +P(4) + P(5) + P(6)

1 1 1 1 1 1 6
= ----- + ----- + ----- + ----- + ----- + ----- = ----- = 1
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
3. The probability of impossible event is zero.
An example is in rolling a die. What is the probability that the 7 is up? This is
an impossible event because there is no 7 in a die. So the probability is zero.

4. Probability of sure event is one.

An example is in tossing a coin. What is the probability of getting a head or a
tail? This is a sure event because the sample space is {H,T}. The probability of
getting a head is 1/2 and the probability of getting a tail is 1/2. So, the
probability of getting a head or tail is 2/2 or 1.

Let’s apply what we learned from The Fundamental Counting Principle in calculating
probability. This helps us understand better why we have to MULTIPLY rather than
add when we are calculating repeated events.

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Example: You are playing a game (flipping a coin) twice, where the chances of
winning each time you play are independent and calculate to ½. That means the
probability of losing is also ½. Let’s make a tree diagram and see how it can help us
match up what we know the sample space to be { (Win, Win), (Win, Lose), (Lose, Win),
(Win, Win) }.

Win, Win
Win = 1/2 ½x½=¼

Win = 1/2
Win, Lose
Lose = 1/2
½x½=¼

Start
Win = 1/2 Lose, Win
½x½=¼
Lose = 1/2

Lose = 1/2 Lose, Lose

½x½=¼

When you move along the path of the tree, you have to multiply, because the
sample space is getting big by the fundamental counting principle.
Try a few example:

a) You are playing a game where the probability of winning is 1/3. If you play the
game four times, what is the probability that you will lose all four times? Answer –
1/81.

b) A spinner has 8 equal parts, labeled A – H. If you spin the spinner twice, what is
the probability it lands on C two times in a row? Answer – 1/64.

THE ADDITION LAW

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Experiment 1: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the
probability of rolling a 2 or a 5?
Possibilities: 1. The number rolled can be a 2.
2. The number rolled can be a 5.

Events: These events are mutually exclusive since

they cannot occur at the same time.

Probabilities: How do we find the probabilities of these mutually exclusive

events? We need a rule to guide us.

Addition Rule When two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive,

1: the probability that A or B will occur is the sum of
the probability of each event.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Let's use addition rule 1 to find the probability for Experiment 1.

Experiment 1: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the

probability of rolling a 2 or a 5?
Probabilities: 1
P(2) =
6

1
P(5) =
6

P(2 or 5) = P(2) + P(5)

1 1
= +
6 6

2
=
6

1
=
3

Experiment 2: A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow,

blue, green, and red. What is the probability of
landing on red or blue after spinning this
spinner?
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Probabilities: 1
P(red) =
4

1
P(blue) =
4

P(red or blue) = P(red) + P(blue)

1 1
= +
4 4

2
=
4

1
=
2

Experiment 3: A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue,

and 4 yellow marbles. If a single marble is
chosen at random from the jar, what is the
probability that it is yellow or green?
Probabilities: 4
P(yellow) =
10

3
P(green) =
10

P(yellow or green) = P(yellow) + P(green)

4 3
= +
10 10

7
=
10

In each of the three experiments above, the events are mutually

exclusive.

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 Let's look at some experiments in which the events are non-mutually
exclusive.

Experiment4: A single card is chosen at random from a

standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is
the probability of choosing a king or a club?
Probabilities: P(king or
= P(king) + P(club) - P(king of clubs)
club)

4 13 1
= + -
52 52 52

16
=
52

4
=
13

In Experiment 4, the events are non-mutually exclusive. The addition causes the king
of clubs to be counted twice, so its probability must be subtracted. When two events
are non-mutually exclusive, a different addition rule must be used.

Addition Rule When two events, A and B, are non-mutually exclusive,

the probability that A or B will occur is:
2:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

In the rule above, P(A and B) refers to the overlap of the two events. Let's apply
this rule to some other experiments.

Experiment 5: In a math class of 30 students, 17 are boys

and 13 are girls. On a unit test, 4 boys and 5
girls made an A grade. If a student is chosen
at random from the class, what is the
probability of choosing a girl or an A student?
Probabilities: P(girl or A) = P(girl) + P(A) - P(girl and A)

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 13 9 5
= + -
30 30 30

17
=
30

Experiment 6: On New Year's Eve, the probability of a

person having a car accident is 0.09. The
probability of a person driving while
intoxicated is 0.32 and the probability of a
person having a car accident while
intoxicated is 0.15. What is the probability
of a person driving while intoxicated or
having a car accident?
Probabilities:
P(intoxicated or accident) = P(intoxicated) + P(accident) - P(intoxicated and accident)

= 0.32 + 0.09 - 0.15

= 0.26

Read and study the additional examples:

Example 7: On a TV quiz show a contestant is asked to pick an integer at random

from the first 100 consecutive positive integers; that is, the integers 1 through 100. If

the number picked is divisible by 12 or 9, the contestant will win a free trip to Cebu.

What is the probability that the contestant will win the trip?

Solution:
Since one integer is picked at random from 100 integers, the sample space
consist of 100 equally likely outcomes and is given by S = {1, 2, 3, …, 100}. Let two
events be defined,
A: the number is divisible by 12
B: the number is divisible by 9.
Then

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 A = {12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96}
B = {9, 18, 27, 36, 45, 54, 63, 72, 81, 90, 99}

Now, the events "A and B" consist of the set of integers that are divisible by 12
and 9; this is the set of integers divisible by 36 and, therefore, consists of the set {36,
72}
Hence,
8 11 2
P(A) = ------ P(B) = ------ P(A and B) = ------
100 100 100

Applying the addition law, we now get

8 11 2 17
P (A or B) = ------ + ------ - ------ = ------
100 100 100 100

The probability of winning a free trip is 0.17.

Example 8: In a certain area, television channels 4 and 7 are affiliated with the same
national network. The probability that channel 4 carries a particular sports program is
0.5, that channel 7 carries it is 0.7, and the probability that they both carry it is 0.3.
What is the probability that Jose will be able to watch the program on either of the
channels?
Solution:
Let the events be defined
A: channel 4 carries the program
B: channel 7 carries the program
P(A) = 0.5
P(B) = 0.7
P(A and B) = 0.3
Using the addition law,
P(A or B) = 0.5 + 0.7 - 0.3 = 0.9

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 Hence, the probability that Jose will be able to watch the program is 0.9.

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if they do not have any
outcome in common and, consequently, cannot occur simultaneously. It follows,
therefore that:
P (A and B) = 0 for mutually exclusive events A and B.
By the addition law we have,
P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B) if A and B are mutually exclusive.
This result can be extended to any finite number of mutually exclusive events,
that is, events that cannot occur together in pairs. For instance, if A, B and C are three
events, then
P(A or B or C) = P(A) +P(B) + P(C), if A, B and C are mutually exclusive.

Experiment 1: A single card is chosen at random from a

standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is
the probability of choosing a 5 or a king?
Possibilities: 1. The card chosen can be a 5.
2. The card chosen can be a king.

Experiment 2: A single card is chosen at random from a

standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is
the probability of choosing a club or a king?
Possibilities: 1. The card chosen can be a club.
2. The card chosen can be a king.
3. The card chosen can be a king and a club.
(i.e., the king of clubs).

In Experiment 1, the card chosen can be a five or a king, but not both at the
same time. These events are mutually exclusive. In Experiment 2, the card chosen
can be a club, or a king, or both at the same time. These events are not mutually
exclusive.

Definition: Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the
same time (i.e., they have no outcomes in common).

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Experiment 3: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability
of rolling an odd number or an even number?
Possibilities: 1. The number rolled can be an odd number.
2. The number rolled can be an even number.
Events: These events are mutually exclusive since they
cannot occur at the same time.

Experiment 4: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of

rolling a 5 or an odd number?
Possibilities: 1. The number rolled can be a 5.
2. The number rolled can be an odd number (1, 3 or 5).
3. The number rolled can be a 5 and odd.
Events: These events are not mutually exclusive since they can occur at
the same time.

Experiment 5: A single letter is chosen at random from the word SCHOOL.

What is the probability of choosing an S or an O?
Possibilities: 1. The letter chosen can be an S
2. The letter chosen can be an O.
Events: These events are mutually exclusive since they cannot occur at
the same time.

Experiment 6: A single letter is chosen at random from the word SCHOOL.

What is the probability of choosing an O or a vowel?
Possibilities: 1. The letter chosen can be an O
2. The letter chosen can be a vowel.
3. The letter chosen can be an O and a vowel.
Events: These events are not mutually exclusive since they can occur at
the same time.

Read and study additional examples.

Example 7:
A box contains 3 red, 4 green, and 5 white balls. One ball is picked at random.
What is the probability that it will be red or white?
Solution:
The two events are
R: A red ball is picked.

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 W: A white ball is picked.
The events R and W are mutually exclusive, because if a ball is red it cannot be
white and vice versa. Therefore, P(R and W) = 0 and
P(R and W) = P(R) + P(W)
3 5 8 2
= ----- + ----- - ----- = -----
12 12 12 3

Example 8 : Consider a family with four children. A survey indicates that it is

reasonable to believe that the probabilities of having 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 sons in such family
are 0.1, 0.2, 0.35, 0.2, and 0.15 respectively . Find the probability that a family with
four children, there will be
(a) at least two sons
(b) at most two sons
Solution:
(a) There will be at least two sons if there are two sons or three sons or four sons.

The three events are mutually exclusive since, for example, a family that has

three sons cannot, at the same time have two sons or four sons. Therefore.

P(at least two sons) = P(2 sons) + P(3 sons) + P(4 sons)
= 0.35 + 0.2 + 0.15
(b) At most two sons
P (at most sons) = P(0 sons) + P(1 son) + P(2 sons)
= 0.1 + 0.2 + 0.35
= 0.65

LAW OF COMPLEMENT

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 The probability that an event A will not occur is equal to 1 minus the probability
that it will occur. That is, for any event A
P(not A) = 1 - P(A)
Where: not A means the event "nonoccurrence of A". The event not A is called
the complement of the event A.

Experiment 1: A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow,

blue, green, and red. What is the probability of
landing on a sector that is not red after spinning
this spinner?
Sample Space: {yellow, blue, green, red}
Probability: The probability of each outcome in this
experiment is one fourth. The probability of
landing on a sector that is not red is the same as
the probability of landing on all the other colors
except red.
1 1 1 3
P(not red) = + + =
4 4 4 4

In Experiment 1, landing on a sector that is not red is the complement

of landing on a sector that is red.

Definition: The complement of an event A is the set of all outcomes in the

sample space that are not included in the outcomes of event A. The
complement of event A is represented by A ‘(read as A prime).

Rule: Given the probability of an event, the probability of its complement

can be found by subtracting the given probability from 1.
P(A’ ) = 1 - P(A)

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Experiment 1: A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow,
blue, green, and red. What is the probability of
landing on a sector that is not red after
spinning this spinner?
Sample Space: {yellow, blue, green, red}
Probability: P(not red) = 1 - P(red)

1
=1 -
4

3
=
4
Experiment 2: A single card is chosen at random from a
standard deck of 52 playing cards. What is
the probability of choosing a card that is
not a king?
Probability: P(not king) = 1 - P(king)

4
=1 -
52

48
=
52

12
=
13

Experiment 3: A single 6-sided die is rolled.

What is the probability of
rolling a number that is not 4?
Probability: P(not 4) = 1 - P(4)

1
=1 -
6

5
=
6

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Experiment 4:
A single card is chosen at random
from a standard deck of 52 playing
cards. What is the probability of
choosing a card that is not a club?
Probability: P(not club) = 1 - P(club)

13
=1 -
52

39
=
52

3
=
4

Experiment 5: A glass jar contains 20 red

marbles. If a marble is chosen at
random from the jar, what is the
probability that it is not red?
Probability: P(not red) = 1 - P(red)

= 1 - 1

= 0

Note: This is an impossible event.

Read and study the additional examples.

Example 6:
If the probability that the stock goes up is 0.6. What is the probability that it will
not go up?
P(will not go up) = 1 - 0.6 = 0.4

Example 7:
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 The probability of precipitation is 0.8. What is the probability of no precipitation?
P(no precipitation) = 1 - 0.8 = 0.2

INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Two events, A and B are said to be independent events if the probability of the
simultaneous occurrence of A and B is equal to the product of the respective
probabilities, that is
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
Two events that are not independent are said to be dependent events.

Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of

socks with each of the following colors:
blue, brown, red, white and black. Each
pair is folded together in a matching set.
You reach into the sock drawer and
choose a pair of socks without looking.
You replace this pair and then choose
another pair of socks. What is the
probability that you will choose the red
pair of socks both times?

There are a couple of things to note about this experiment. Choosing a pair of
socks from the drawer, replacing it, and then choosing a pair again from the same
drawer is a compound event. Since the first pair was replaced, choosing a red pair
on the first try has no effect on the probability of choosing a red pair on the second
try. Therefore, these events are independent.

Definition: Two events, A and B, are independent if the fact that A occurs
does not affect the probability of B occurring.

Some other examples of independent events are:

 Landing on heads after tossing a coin AND rolling a 5 on a single 6-sided die.
 Choosing a marble from a jar AND landing on heads after tossing a coin.
 Choosing a 3 from a deck of cards, replacing it, AND then choosing an ace as
the second card; and

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  Rolling a 4 on a single 6-sided die, AND then rolling a 1 on a second roll of the
die.

To find the probability of two independent events that occur in sequence, find the
probability of each event occurring separately, and then multiply the probabilities.
This multiplication rule is defined symbolically below. Note that multiplication is
represented by AND.

Multiplication Rule 1: When two events, A and B, are independent, the

probability of both occurring is:
P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B)

Now, we can apply this rule to find the probability for Experiment 1.

Experiment 1: A dresser drawer contains one pair of

socks with each of the following
colors: blue, brown, red, white and
black. Each pair is folded together in a
matching set. You reach into the sock
drawer and choose a pair of socks
without looking. You replace this pair
and then choose another pair of socks.
What is the probability that you will
choose the red pair of socks both
times?
Probabilities: 1
P(red) =
5

P(red and red) = P(red) · P(red)

1 1
= ·
5 5

1
=
25

Experiment 2: A coin is tossed and a single 6-sided

die is rolled. Find the probability of
landing on the head side of the coin
and rolling a 3 on the die.

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Probabilities: 1
P(head) =
2

1
P(3) =
6

P(head and 3) = P(head) · P(3)

1 1
= ·
2 6

1
=
12

Experiment 3: A card is chosen at random from a

deck of 52 cards. It is then replaced
and a second card is chosen. What is
the probability of choosing a jack and
an eight?
Probabilities: 4
P(jack) =
52

4
P(8) =
52

P(jack and 8) = P(jack) · P(8)

4 4
= ·
52 52

= 16
2704
25
 1
=
169

Experiment 4: A jar contains 3 red, 5 green, 2 blue and 6

yellow marbles. A marble is chosen at
random from the jar. After replacing it, a
second marble is chosen. What is the
probability of choosing a green and a yellow
marble?
Probabilities: 5
P(green) =
16

6
P(yellow) =
16

P(green and yellow) = P(green) · P(yellow)

5 6
= ·
16 16

30 = 15
=
256 128

Each of the experiments above involved two independent events that

occurred in sequence. In some cases, there was replacement of the first
item before choosing the second item; this replacement was needed in
order to make the two events independent. Multiplication Rule 1 can be
extended to work for three or more independent events that occur in
sequence. This is demonstrated in Experiment 5 below.

Experiment 5: A school survey found that 9 out of 10 students like

pizza. If three students are chosen at random with
replacement, what is the probability that all three
students like pizza?
Probabilities:
9
P(student 1 likes pizza) =
10

P(student 2 likes pizza) 9

26
 =
10

9
P(student 3 likes pizza) =
10

P(student 1 and student 2 and 9 9 9 729

student 3 like pizza) = 10 ·10 ·10 =1000

All of the experiments above involved independent events with a small

population (e.g. A 6-sided die, a 2-sided coin, a deck of 52 cards). When a small
number of items are selected from a large population without replacement, the
probability of each event changes so slightly that the amount of change is
negligible. This is illustrated in the following problem.

Problem: A nationwide survey found that 72% of people in

the United States like pizza. If 3 people are
selected at random, what is the probability that all
three like pizza?
Solution: Let L represent the event of randomly choosing a
person who likes pizza from the U.S.
P(L) · P(L) · P(L) = (0.72)(0.72)(0.72) = 0.37
= 37%

Read and study the additional examples.

Example 6:
Victor flies from Manila to Davao via Cagayan de Oro. The probability that he lands
safely in Cagayan de Oro from Manila is 0.95 and the probability that he lands safely
in Davao from Cagayan de Oro is 0.98. Find the probability that
(a) Victor lands safely in Cagayan de Oro and Davao;
(b) Victor lands safely in Cagayan de Oro, but has a mishap in Davao.
Solution:
(a) Since the events are independent,
P(Victor lands safely in Cagayan de Oro and Davao)
= P(Victor lands safely in Cagayan de Oro) x
27
 P(Victor lands safely in Davao)
= (0.95) (0.98) = 0.931
(b) Here we want
P (a safe landing in Cagayan de Oro and Mishap in Davao) = P(a safe landing in
Cagayan de Oro) x P(Mishap in Davao)

Now, the probability of a mishap in Davao is 1 - 0.98 = 0.02. Hence the

probability of the desired event is
= (0.95) (0.02) = 0.019

The multiplication rule for two independent events given above can be extended
to the case of three or more independent events. Thus, if A, B, C, and D are
independent events, we can write
P(A and B and C and D) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C) x P(D)

Example 7:
A number is picked at random from the digits 1, 2, 3, … 9, and a coin and a die
are tossed. Find the probability of picking an odd digit, getting a head on the coin
and getting a multiple of 3 on the die.
Solution:
Notice that
P(odd digit) = 5/9
P(head) = 1/2
P(multiple of 3 on the die) = 1/3
Since the events are independent,
= P(odd digit) x P(a head) x P(a multiple of 3)
= (5/9) (1/2) (1/3) = 5/54

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