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Playing “Moneyball” in Librarianship:

The Winning Strategy of Gap Analysis

By Tommy Doyle
Senior Vice President, Elsevier

Data, driving high-quality decisions, can be a powerful vehicle for change. By empowering
librarians with fact-based analytics, their libraries can become more prominent and
valuable. Such “gap analysis” provides librarians greater visibility into usage behavior,
as well as their institution’s and the world’s research trends – allowing librarians to
provide greater access to the content library patrons want, and elevate their own stature
within an institution.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Anyone familiar with the book or movie, Moneyballi also knows the term, “sabermetrics.”ii
When the Oakland A’s started to assemble its Major League Baseball (MLB) team for the
2002 season, it was facing limited revenues and the departure of three marquee players.
Billy Beane, the team’s general manager, decided to abandon the time-honored but mostly
subjective process of choosing players based on certain statistics used since the
19th century. Beane and his staff adopted an analytical, evidence-based approach to
assembling a competitive team. This system empowered them to choose players with great
potential who had been overlooked by other teams. They filled the gaps in their line-up
based on careful research, not just gut feelings.

“Beane and his staff adopted an analytical, evidence-

based approach to assembling a competitive team.”

Despite initial criticism from multiple fronts, sabermetrics has been credited with taking
the low-budget A’s to the playoffs in both 2002 and 2003 – and several times since then.
Beane caught the attention of new Boston Red Sox owner John Henry, who tried to lure
him away from the A’s at the end of the 2002 season. While Henry didn’t succeed in signing
the Oakland general manager, he embraced Beane’s approach to evaluating and selecting
players…and just two years later had created a team that brought a World Series
championship to Boston for the first time in 86 years.

Many librarians find themselves in a situation not unlike the one Beane faced in early 2002.
The long-accepted ways of acquiring new content are hard to shake, as is the dated
perception of librarians as “curators.” They are also coping with small or decreasing
budgets that force them to spend less on books and there is heavy scrutiny of all
expenditures.

At the same time, researchers and academicians are increasingly requesting access to more
content, such as eBooks, that complements primary research. With limited funding,
librarians often find it difficult to provide access to all the content patrons – researchers,
faculty and students – would like at the level expected in the 21st century. And when
librarians do spend money on content, it can be a risky proposition due to a lack of good
insight into actual researcher needs.

But if librarians think in a new way – move toward data-driven acquisition like Billy Beane
– they just might be able to provide greater access to the foundational and interdisciplinary
content patrons want, and elevate their own stature within an institution.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Do Library Users Find What They Need?

Just as Beane and his staff realized that players who most often got on base were key to
their strategy of scoring runs and winning games, librarians must understand what their
patrons require for better learning and research outcomes. Most content is available
electronically, which makes it more easily accessible but reduces the in-person
collaboration between librarians and their patrons. So how do librarians know if the
students, professors and researchers are getting what they really need?

An example: researchers are under the gun to produce results and publish. They must stay
on top of the work being done in their specific field, be able to follow lines of inquiry,
identify unanswered questions, and then access the content that enables them to design
research that delivers insightful and verifiable results. They are looking for the right
content, when they need it, and in the most appropriate format. By finding the right
answers to their questions in a timely manner, researchers improve their productivity and
increase their ability to identify additional relevant information that strengthens their
research. And just as a winning baseball team increases its popularity and fan base while
adding to the bottom line of the organization, research discoveries mean more funding,
greater prestige and increased visibility.

“Book content can give the wide-angle view of an

emerging topic or one that is changing.”

How, then, can librarians ensure they support research and learning requirements? What is
the right amount and type of eBooks content?

Researchers and students need both journals and books to build their knowledge around a
topic. Journal content provides results of the latest research, while book content provides
an interdisciplinary view, along with fundamental and comprehensive knowledge. Book
content can give the wide-angle view of an emerging topic or one that is changing. At the
same time, the proliferation of mobile devices is shifting preferences for this type of
content even further towards eBooks. There is a great deal of change happening in the
publishing industry to drive and support this shift.

Librarians investing in book content will see sustained value: eBooks are research resources
that maintain their value for extended periods.iii In fact, older books contribute
significantly to eBook usage well beyond their first few years. eBook usage peaks when two
to three years old and distributes relatively evenly thereafter. Research shows that about
half of all full-text chapter downloads (FTCs) are generated by eBooks less than five years
old, and half by eBooks six to twenty years old. Even after about nine years, eBooks still
contribute approximately 30 percent FTCs in terms of a lifetime usage of twenty years.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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eBooks are research and teaching resources that maintain their value for extended periods. About 50% of full
text chapter downloads (FTCs) are generated by eBooks 0-5 years old and 50% by eBooks 6-20 years old. Even
after about 9 years, eBooks still contribute approximately 30% FTCs in terms of a lifetime usage of 20 years.
(“ScienceDirect Usage Aging Analysis” Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1 December 2014)

The researcher workflow is multi-staged and complex, and eBooks can help in several of
the stages. Researchers need the knowledge in eBooks to: identify the questions they need
to ask to develop a new research project; gather information; write proposals, secure
required funding, and build the research environment; conduct experiments, collect and
evaluate data, and make modifications to experiments as necessary; and write and publish
research papers.

Often researchers and students try to access information – particularly in eBook format –
but are unable to get to it because their institution doesn’t subscribe to it or hasn’t
purchased it. This is referred to as a “turnaway” phenomenon that can cause frustration
among researchers and students when they see what they might want but quickly realize
they can’t access it. Sometimes this knowledge of a gap will lead to recommendations. But
in many cases the needs of the moment are quickly forgotten as researchers and students
turn to more readily available but perhaps less trustworthy sources of foundational content,
such as Google or Wikipedia.

Viewed through the Moneyball lens, tracking and mapping those “turnaways” can help
identify critical content gaps. The turnaways become the proof that eBooks content is
valued and necessary for learning and research, providing a complementary view of a field
of study.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Take a Page out of Billy’s Playbook

Since the library’s primary goal is to support the institution’s teaching or research efforts,
librarians must align content to the direction in which the institution is heading and
digitization has changed every aspect of a librarian’s profession. Librarians are trained to –
and thrive on – finding the right answers and supporting vital discovery work. However,
just as the Oakland A’s had to change their approach to pulling together a winning team,
librarians must solve these challenges in a more objective way. They must address the
growing need for eBook accessibility, as well as the need to provide different types of
content at various points in their workflow.

Today any librarian can become the Billy Beane of an academic institution or research
facility. They can get accurate, comprehensive data on what information and types of
resources are needed for successful research. Librarians can further demonstrate their
value to the organization, by proving that they understand the contribution they can make
to affect outcomes. Empowered by this information, librarians are able to build a strategic
advantage.

“Today any librarian can become the Billy Beane of an

academic institution or research facility.”

Mind the Gap – Adopt a Strategic Acquisition Methodology

Librarians now have the opportunity to use fact-based analytical research to determine
what their library has versus what their institution’s researchers, students and educators
actually need. This “gap analysis” provides librarians greater visibility into usage behavior,
as well as their institution’s and the world’s research trends. They can then make more
valuable choices, and even advise their patrons on the institution’s research strengths,
priorities and direction.

Using factual analysis to align a library’s content access strategy with the institutional
strategy, the librarian can avoid investments in content that isn’t needed and provide access
to relevant content in both a timely manner and desired format. Armed with objective data,

the librarian will be able to confirm that all investments are supporting the overall goals of
the institution. This reduces the risk of using a limited budget for content that won’t be
needed, and helps to achieve the greatest return on content investments.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Winning Results
The 2002 metamorphosis of the Oakland A’s started slowly … and in fact, many pundits
gave up on the team and Beane’s new approach early in the season. It was just too
unconventional. But as the management staff, players and coaches embraced sabermetrics,
the new strategy began to generate positive results on the field and in the standings.

By filling critical content gaps, providing that content in desired formats such as eBooks,
and educating themselves about research trends, librarians can become strong partners
with their research communities in accelerating the pace of discovery. The researchers will
better understand trends in their respective fields, and can more efficiently follow lines of
inquiry and deliver timely results. They will see librarians as key contributors to
institutional strategies, as facilitators and partners. By helping to drive research, learning
and teaching outcomes, librarians gain greater visibility and respect.

The data generated by a gap analysis leads to easier curation, reducing much of the risk
involved in the decision-making process for accessing new content. The risk they face is
two-fold: are they spending the right amount of budget on the right content and are they
providing access to that content in the way researchers and students want? With gap
analysis, choices can be made faster, more confidently, and at a more granular level. A
librarian’s value to the institution will be elevated and the ability to justify expenditures
will improve. When an institution is credited with facilitating highly cited, influential
research, and its faculty is recognized as experts, then its mission – high academic
rankings, recruitment of the highest caliber academic staff, and enrollments of top-
performing students – is all the more achievable.

“With gap analysis, choices can be made faster, more

confidently, and at a more granular level.”

Consider the “Moneyball” Strategy for Your Library

A memorable scene in the Moneyball movieiv shows a table surrounded by aging baseball
scouts, spitting tobacco into paper cups and “evaluating” potential players using flimsy
criteria, including the appearance of their girlfriends. Beane rolls his eyes, and basically

says, “Why are we doing this? By doing this the same way every year, how can it possibly
change our team and our season?”

Librarians have an opportunity to change the way decisions are made. As knowledge
professionals, librarians can become more collaborative and competitive, more efficient
and effective. Using objective data to identify content gaps, they can facilitate knowledge

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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creation and offer resources like eBooks to elevate the quality of research output to make
their institutions more competitive than ever. Seeking and incorporating this powerful
information may help librarians be more successful in achieving their mandate. And they
will provide further evidence that librarians are truly valuable to teaching and research, an
integral part of the institution, and invested in common objectives.

Just like baseball teams, libraries are businesses with customers. By empowering librarians
with fact-based analytics, their libraries can become more prominent and valuable.
Librarians may not win the equivalent of 20 consecutive games as the A’s did in 2002, or be
offered a $12.5 million contract as Beane was from the Boston Red Sox. But for a librarian to
become the “MVP” of their institution would be a major perception shift of their role in
the institutional value chain. Data, driving high-quality decisions, can be a powerful vehicle
for change.

“By empowering librarians with fact-based analytics,

their libraries can become more prominent
and valuable.”

About the Author

Tommy Doyle is the Senior Vice President of Strategy, Business Development &
Continuity Publishing, Science and Technology Books, Elsevier. He leverages big data
signals from across Elsevier’s unique platforms and services to drive organic and
inorganic investments for the global books portfolio, which has higher-than-industry-
average returns and commands some of the highest usage and citations per book in
research. Tommy holds a Master’s degree in chemistry and a boxing Blue from Oxford
University. He earned his MBA from INSEAD where he was the Louis Franck scholar.

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Sample Gap Analysis

This sample Gap Analysis is only the beginning. Your own institution’s complete Gap
Analysis features more than 30 custom charts. It’s complementary. And it’s an effective
first step to make sure the investments your library makes will generate the optimal
return.

Request your complimentary Gap Analysis >

Librarians now have an opportunity for greater visibility

into research trends for their institution and throughout
the world—key elements in determining what institutions,
researchers, students and educators need. Combined with
usage and request data, a full picture develops that makes
it easier to identify the areas of greatest need. This “gap
analysis” enables easier curation and more strategic
management of resources, reducing much of the risk
involved in the decision-making process for acquiring new
content.

Here is an example of one component of a gap analysis for

an academic institution. The “Published Articles 2013” pie
chart shows the institution’s output of published articles
in the top subject areas. There is typically a direct
correlation between the article output and the book and
journal usage subject areas. A gap analysis can also show
how an institution’s research output compares to similar
institutions around the world.

“Combined with usage and request data, a full

picture develops that makes it easier to identify the
areas of greatest need.”

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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After taking a look at the data that shows an

institution’s research output and comparing it
with journal and book usage, we can determine
the gaps. Here the eBooks Usage and Turnaways
bar graph shows the percentage of ebooks that
were used versus the percentage of eBooks for
which access was attempted but patrons were
turned away. An increase in the percentage of
ebooks turnaways indicates that the library is not
providing access to book content in areas that
match the institution’s current research topics.

When we compare the research topics to the

content available in the collection and the
turnaways we see differences, significant in
many cases. Those differences identify the
critical content gaps, as seen here in the Article
Output vs eBooks Usage bar graph.

For example, in Engineering, where article

output greatly exceeds ScienceDirect eBook
usage and turnaways are even higher, the gap
analysis suggests the need for more
foundational and interdisciplinary eBooks
covering this topic. Another example of a gap in
needed content in Biochemistry, Genetics and
Molecular Biology, where eBook usage is lower
than research output and eBook usage, and
there is a very high percentage of turnaways.

This is the type of gap analysis data that can

drive high-quality decisions and become a
powerful vehicle for change.

“When we compare the research topics to the content

available in the collection and the turnaways we see
differences, significant in many cases.”

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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A gap analysis can also show the number of

turnaways by subject in specific content
types, such as major reference works
(encyclopedias and treatises), books series
and handbooks, allowing librarians to
focus budgets on specific resources.

Request your complimentary Gap Analysis >

                                                                                                                       
i Michael Lewis, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2003.

ii “A Guide to Sabermetric Research,” Society for American Baseball Research, accessed May 2015, http://sabr.org/sabermetrics.

iii Bei Wen, “ScienceDirect Usage Aging Analysis.” Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1 December 2014.

-iv Moneyball. Dir. Bennett Miller. Sony Pictures, 2011

© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.