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The Valuation and Financing of Lady M Confections

Harvard Business School Case 9-215-047
Courseware 9-216-706

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1
Exhibit 2a Unaudited Consolidated Statements of Financial Condition

12/31/2012 12/31/2013

Assets
Cash 524,785 712,011
Investments in subsidiaries - -
Intercompany receivable - -
Affiliated receivable 53,037 135,267
Accounts receivable 276,197 387,044
Inventory 39,360 107,937
Prepaid expenses and other receivables 23 5,689
Deposits 54,100 99,809
Fixed assets, net 449,900 1,512,610
Total Assets 1,397,402 2,960,367

Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity

Liabilities:
Compensation payable - 281,383
Intercompany payable - -
Accounts payable and accrued expenses 267,826 328,561
Deferred rent payable - 63,097
Advanced receipts - 6,022
Corporate tax payable 434 2,842
Interest payable 3,500 3,500
Loans payable - short term 412,500 99,980
Loans payable - long term 295,001 917,635
Total Liabilities 979,261 1,703,021

Shareholders’ Equity:
Capital Stock 1,886,504 1,886,504
Retained earnings (1,780,234) (1,484,770)
Current earnings 311,871 855,613
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) - -
Total Shareholders’ Equity 418,141 1,257,346

Total Liabilities and Members’ Equity 1,397,402 2,960,367

Source: Company documents.

Exhibit 2b Unaudited Consolidated Statements of Income and Comprehensive Income

12/31/2012 12/31/2013
Sales Revenue 4,132,517 7,491,187
Cost of Sales 1,303,416 1,632,722
Gross Margin 2,829,101 5,858,465

Compensation
Salaries and wages 1,309,589 2,691,881
Employee benefits 65,676 124,827
Total Compensation 1,375,265 2,816,708
PRIME COST 1,453,836 3,041,758

Other Controllable Expenses

Sales, General, & Admin. 2,449,200 4,342,500
Direct operating expenses 273,864 499,837
Marketing 4,004 24,679
Utilities 91,272 125,102
General and Administrative 233,335 406,819
Repairs and Maintenance 98,506 104,450
Research and Development - -
Total other controllable expenses 700,982 1,160,887
CONTROLLABLE PROFIT 752,854 1,880,871

Occupancy and Depreciation Expenses

Occupancy 351,075 753,379
Depreciation & Amortization 41,800 149,007
Depreciation 41,800 149,007
Amortization 0 0
Insurance 40,332 49,974
Other (Income) Expense
Other (Income) -21,627 -38,479
Interest Expense 21,804 37,186
Other expense 3,179 -
NET INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES 316,292 929,804
Corporate Taxes 4,421 74,191

NET INCOME 311,871 855,613

Source: Company documents.

Exhibit 2c Unaudited Consolidated Statements of Retained Earnings and Stockholders’ Equity

12/31/2012 12/31/2013
Capital Stock
Beginning Balance 1,886,504 1,886,504
Stock Issued - -
Ending Balance 1,886,504 1,886,504

Reinvested Earnings
Beginning Balance (1,780,234) (1,484,770)
Net Income 311,871 855,613
Dividends - -
Ending Balance (1,468,363) (629,158)

Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (loss)

Beginning Balance - -
Net foreign currency translation - -
Ending Balance - -

Total Shareholders’ Equity 418,141 1,257,346

Source: Company documents.

Exhibit 2d Unaudited Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows

12/31/2012 12/31/2013

Cash Flows from Operating Activities

Net Income 311,871 855,613
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided
(used) by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization expense - 149,007
Other (227) -
Decrease (increase) in:
Affiliated receivable 7,782 (135,267)
Prepaid expenses and other receivables - (5,666)
Accounts receivables (17,677) (110,847)
Intercompany receivables - -
Deposits (16,875) (45,709)
Inventory (4,597) (68,577)
Increase (decrease) in:
Compensation payable - 281,383
Intercompany payables - -
Accounts payable and accrued expenses - 63,837
Deferred rent payables - -
Advanced receipts 558 -
Corporate tax payable (22) 5,328
Loans payable - short term 270,000 (12,520)
Interest payable 1,750 -
Total Adjustments 240,692 184,065
Net cash provided (used) by operating activities 552,563 1,039,678

Cash Flows from Investing Activities

Purchase of fixed assets (15,197) (394,150)
Leasehold improvements (127,015) (800,244)
Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities (142,212) (1,194,393)

Cash Flows from Financing Activities

Proceeds (payments) on long-term loan (24,540) 222,634

Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities (24,540) 222,634

Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 385,811 67,919

Cash, beginning of period 138,975 644,092
Cash, end of period 524,785 712,011

Source: Company documents.

 AÑO UNO
Punto de equilibrio
Alquilar $ 310,600.00
Utilidades $ 38,644.00
Mano de obra $ 594,750.00
COGS (50% de las ventas brutas) $ 944,620.00
Coste total $ 1,888,614.00
Ventas brutas $ 1,889,240.00
Venta minorista promedio por pastel $ 80.00
Pasteles vendidos por año 23,616
Pasteles vendidos por día 64.7
Ingresos netos $ 626.00
Margen 0.03% Tasa de crecimiento 20.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5
Alquiler (aumento del 3%) $ 310,600.00 $ 319,918.00 $ 329,515.54 $ 339,401.01 $ 349,583.04
Servicios públicos (incremento del 3%) $ 38,644.00 $ 39,803.32 $ 40,997.42 $ 42,227.34 $ 43,494.16
Laboral (incremento del 5%) $ 594,750.00 $ 624,487.50 $ 655,711.88 $ 688,497.47 $ 722,922.34
COGS (50% de las ventas brutas) $ 944,620.00 $ 1,133,544.00 $ 1,360,252.80 $ 1,632,303.36 $ 1,958,764.03
Costo total $ 1,888,614.00 $ 2,117,752.82 $ 2,386,477.63 $ 2,702,429.18 $ 3,074,763.57
Ventas brutas $ 1,889,240.00 $ 2,267,088.00 $ 2,720,505.60 $ 3,264,606.72 $ 3,917,528.06
Venta minorista promedio por pastel $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00
Pasteles vendidos por año 23,616 28,339 34,006 40,808 48,969
Pasteles vendidos por día 64.7 77.6 93.2 111.8 134.2

Ingresos netos $ 626.00 $ 149,335.18 $ 334,027.97 $ 562,177.54 $ 842,764.49

Margen 0.03% 6.59% 12.28% 17.22% 21.51%
Costo inicial restante $ 999,374.00 $ 850,038.82 $ 516,010.85 $ (46,166.69) $ (888,931.18)

Inversión $ (1,000,000.00) $ 626.00 $ 149,335.18 $ 334,027.97 $ 562,177.54 $ 842,764.49

WACC 12%
VPN $ 192,844
 AÑO UNO
Punto de equilibrio
Alquilar $ 310,600.00
Utilidades $ 38,644.00
Mano de obra $ 594,750.00
COGS (50% de las ventas brutas) $ 944,620.00
Coste total $ 1,888,614.00
Ventas brutas $ 1,889,240.00
Venta minorista promedio por pastel $ 80.00
Pasteles vendidos por año 23,616
Pasteles vendidos por día 64.7
Ingresos netos $ 626.00
Margen 0.03% Tasa de crecimiento 5.0%

0 1 2 3 4 5
Alquiler (aumento del 3%) $ 310,600.00 $ 319,918.00 $ 329,515.54 $ 339,401.01 $ 349,583.04
Servicios públicos (incremento del 3%) $ 38,644.00 $ 39,803.32 $ 40,997.42 $ 42,227.34 $ 43,494.16
Laboral (incremento del 5%) $ 594,750.00 $ 624,487.50 $ 655,711.88 $ 688,497.47 $ 722,922.34
COGS (50% de las ventas brutas) $ 944,620.00 $ 991,851.00 $ 1,041,443.55 $ 1,093,515.73 $ 1,148,191.51
Costo total $ 1,888,614.00 $ 1,976,059.82 $ 2,067,668.38 $ 2,163,641.54 $ 2,264,191.05
Ventas brutas $ 1,889,240.00 $ 1,983,702.00 $ 2,082,887.10 $ 2,187,031.46 $ 2,296,383.03
Venta minorista promedio por pastel $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00
Pasteles vendidos por año 23,616 24,796 26,036 27,338 28,705
Pasteles vendidos por día 64.7 67.9 71.3 74.9 78.6

Ingresos netos $ 626.00 $ 7,642.18 $ 15,218.72 $ 23,389.91 $ 32,191.97

Margen 0.03% 0.39% 0.73% 1.07% 1.40%
Costo inicial restante $ 999,374.00 $ 991,731.82 $ 976,513.10 $ 953,123.19 $ 920,931.22

Inversión $ (1,000,000.00) $ 626.00 $ 7,642.18 $ 15,218.72 $ 23,389.91 $ 32,191.97

WACC 12%
VPN $ (949,385.09)
 AÑO UNO
Punto de equilibrio
Alquilar $ 310,600.00
Utilidades $ 38,644.00
Mano de obra $ 594,750.00
COGS (50% de las ventas brutas) $ 944,620.00
Coste total $ 1,888,614.00
Ventas brutas $ 1,889,240.00
Venta minorista promedio por pastel $ 80.00
Pasteles vendidos por año 23,616
Pasteles vendidos por día 64.7
Ingresos netos $ 626.00
Margen 0.03% Tasa de crecimiento 17.7%

0 1 2 3 4 5
Alquiler (aumento del 3%) $ 310,600.00 $ 319,918.00 $ 329,515.54 $ 339,401.01 $ 349,583.04
Servicios públicos (incremento del 3%) $ 38,644.00 $ 39,803.32 $ 40,997.42 $ 42,227.34 $ 43,494.16
Laboral (incremento del 5%) $ 594,750.00 $ 624,487.50 $ 655,711.88 $ 688,497.47 $ 722,922.34
COGS (50% de las ventas brutas) $ 944,620.00 $ 1,112,105.82 $ 1,309,287.72 $ 1,541,430.94 $ 1,814,734.31
Costo total $ 1,888,614.00 $ 2,096,314.64 $ 2,335,512.55 $ 2,611,556.75 $ 2,930,733.85
Ventas brutas $ 1,889,240.00 $ 2,224,211.65 $ 2,618,575.43 $ 3,082,861.88 $ 3,629,468.62
Venta minorista promedio por pastel $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00 $ 80.00
Pasteles vendidos por año 23,616 27,803 32,732 38,536 45,368
Pasteles vendidos por día 64.7 76.2 89.7 105.6 124.3

Ingresos netos $ 626.00 $ 127,897.00 $ 283,062.88 $ 471,305.12 $ 698,734.77

Margen 0.03% 5.75% 10.81% 15.29% 19.25%
Costo inicial restante $ 999,374.00 $ 871,477.00 $ 588,414.12 $ 117,109.00 $ (581,625.77)

Inversión $ (1,000,000.00) $ 626.00 $ 127,897.00 $ 283,062.88 $ 471,305.12 $ 698,734.77

WACC 12%
VPN $ -
 Histórico Proyectado
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ventas $4,132.5 $7,491.2 $11,000.0 $13,200.0 $18,480.0 $23,100.0 $28,875.0 $36,093.8
COGS (excluyendo depreciación) $1,303.4 $1,632.7 $2,397.5 $2,877.6 $4,028.6 $5,035.8 $6,294.8 $7,868.4
Beneficio bruto $2,829.1 $5,858.5 $8,602.5 $10,322.4 $14,451.4 $18,064.2 $22,580.3 $28,225.3

gastos de venta, generales y administrativos $2,449.2 $4,342.5 $6,376.5 $7,519.8 $10,342.9 $12,697.6 $15,583.3 $19,118.2
Exp. I+D $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $13.2 $18.5 $23.1 $28.9 $36.1
EBITDA $379.9 $1,516.0 $2,226.0 $2,789.4 $4,090.0 $5,343.5 $6,968.1 $9,071.0
Margen EBITDA 9.19% 20.24% 20.24% 21.13% 22.13% 23.13% 24.13% 25.13%

Depreciación $41.8 $149.0 $24.75 $800.0 $47.1 $62.4 $82.3 $108.3

Amortización $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
EBIT $338.1 $1,367.0 $2,201.3 $1,989.4 $4,042.8 $5,281.1 $6,885.8 $8,962.8
Impuestos (35,0%) $4.4 $74.2 $770.4 $696.3 $1,415.0 $1,848.4 $2,410.0 $3,137.0
EBIT afectado por impuestos $333.7 $1,292.8 $1,430.8 $1,293.1 $2,627.9 $3,432.7 $4,475.8 $5,825.8

Depreciación y amortización $41.8 $149.0 $24.8 $800.0 $47.1 $62.4 $82.3 $108.3
Los gastos de capital $142.2 $1,194.4 $33.0 $1,000.0 $55.44 $69.30 $86.63 $108.28
Adiciones a intangibles $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Cambio en el capital de trabajo $10.8 $271.2 $68.0 $42.6 $102.3 $89.5 $111.9 $139.9
Flujo de caja libre $244.1 $518.6 $1,490.6 $1,135.8 $2,721.9 $3,515.3 $4,583.3 $5,965.7

Supuestos operativos
Crecimiento de las ventas N/A 81.3% 46.8% 20.0% 40.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
COGS (% de las ventas) 31.5% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8% 21.8%
Gastos de venta, generales y administrativos (% de 59.3% 58.0% 58.0% 57.0% 56.0% 55.0% 54.0% 53.0%
Exp. I+D (% de ventas) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Supuestos de gasto primario

CapEx (% de las ventas) 3.4% 15.9% 0.3% 7.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Depreciación (% del CapEx) 29.4% 12.5% 75.0% 80.0% 85.0% 90.0% 95.0% 100.0%
Amortización (monto) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adiciones a Intangibles (monto) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cambio en el capital de trabajo (% de∆ventas) N/A 8.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

Valores en dólares en miles

Método de crecimiento a perpetuidad

WACC 12.0%
Tasa de crecimiento terminal 4.0%
Perpetuidad Múltiple 13.00

Años en el futuro 1 2 3 4 5
FCF 1,135.8 2,721.9 3,515.3 4,583.3 5,965.7
VPN 1,014.1 2,169.9 2,502.1 2,912.8 3,385.1
VPN del FCF a 5 años 11,983.9
Valor terminal del FCF 77,554.0
PV de TV (Descuento 5 años) 44,006.2
Valor de la empresa 55,990