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Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable


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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166

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international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

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Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its


potential and viable renewable source

Sonal Gupta a,b, Rupesh Kumar c,*, Amit Kumar d


a
School of Business, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies (UPES), Dehradun Uttarakhand, India
b
School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, Institute of Energy Systems, EH9 3DW, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
c
Jindal Global Business School (JGBS), O. P. Jindal Global University Sonipat Haryana, India
d
School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing,
210044, China

highlights

 Potentials for Green Hydrogen (GH) in India.


 Source of Renewable energy for Green Hydrogen production.
 Integrated framework for prioritizing the GH potentials.

article info abstract

Article history: Green hydrogen, a carbon-neutral fuel, has the potential to reduce atmospheric green-
Received 27 February 2023 house gas and plays a vital role in mitigating climate change. Its potential is immense in
Received in revised form renewable-rich Asian economies, however, its production is yet to start with key factors
4 August 2023 such as safety parameters, resources, proper government incentives, and public accept-
Accepted 12 August 2023 ability affecting its optimal generation. This study employs three multi-criteria decision-
Available online xxx making approach like analytic hierarchy process (AHP), decision-making trial and evalu-
ation laboratory (DEMATEL), and Fuzzy-AHP followed by the sensitivity analysis to identify
Keywords: and prioritize the robustness of the five primary potentials (social, political, economic,
Green hydrogen technical, and environmental). Subsequently, categorized into 22 sub-potentials of green
Renewable energy sources hydrogen and ideal renewable resource for the sustainable development objective of India.
Potential The results of the DEMATEL analysis suggest that the social is the key predictor and the last
Fuzzy AHP one is Technical. The Fuzzy-TOPSIS method suggests that solar is the best renewable en-
DEMATEL ergy resource followed by wind, small hydro, and biomass energy. Hence, the government's
Fuzzy- TOPSIS intervention and robust policy frameworks are required to increase its production with
special emphasis on cost considering solar energy. The finding of this study will guide the
governments, energy sector players, producers, environmental advocacy groups, and users
to make a strategic decision regarding the choice of the most viable source of renewable
energy to achieve the targets of sustainable development Goals (SDGs-7).
© 2023 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: sonalg35@yahoo.com, sgupta@ddn.upes.ac.in (S. Gupta), scholar.rupesh@gmail.com, rupesh.kumar@jgu.edu.in
(R. Kumar), amitkdah@nuist.edu.cn, amit.agl09@gmail.com (A. Kumar).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
0360-3199/© 2023 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
2 international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

Preliminary assessments have indicated that multi-criteria


1. Introduction decision-making (MCDM) methods have been used to either
select an ideal renewable energy source for green energy
The role of hydrogen production through renewable energy production in countries like Pakistan [14, 15, 16,17) and Iran
(particularly green hydrogen) is gaining momentum across [18] or to select an ideal hydrogen method in nations like
disciplines in recent years [1]. IEA [2] report reveals that 44 China [19,20] and Korea [21]. Further, the huge potential for
countries and the European Union aim to reduce (80e95%) the development of green hydrogen in India has been studied
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050 compared to the pre- by Refs. [22,23], along with the investigations related to the
industrial era and provide affordable and clean energy (Sus- utilization potential of hydrogen in the Iron and Steel in-
tainable Development Goal 7). The major contributors to the dustries [24] or petroleum refining and ammonia synthesis
escalating rate of emissions are the energy-intensive in- units [25] in India. Literature reveals that there is no study has
dustries (iron and steel, aluminum, chemicals, petrochemi- been made yet that discussed the potential criteria for the
cals, and cement), specific transportation modes (road freight growth of green hydrogen in India along with the choice of the
transport, aviation, and shipping), and the gas systems used best viable renewable source required for its production. The
for transport, transmission, and distribution of natural gas. objectives of this study are to: i) identify the ideal criteria
The Conference of Parties (COP) 26 (The UN Climate Change needed for the development of green hydrogen in India and
Conference in Glasgow in November 2021) [3], under the aegis the renewable energy resources prevalent in the country, ii)
of Glasgow Breakthroughs has focused on ‘hydrogen break- develop a decisive framework for identifying and categorizing
through’ with a goal of affordable green hydrogen by 2030. the potential criteria for the development of green hydrogen
Green hydrogen (H2) is considered a carbon-neutral fuel [4], in India, and iii) rank and prioritize the best available source of
which could play a vital role in mitigating future climate renewable energy amongst the available ones, which is
change and help developing countries (India, China, and Asian necessary for effective green hydrogen production. The study
countries) reach their net-zero targets thereby dropping presented here is one of the first investigations to examine,
regional air pollution and improving its quality. It also pro- identify, categorize, and prioritize the potentials of green
vides energy storage and a flexible power system [1] and is hydrogen along with finding an ideal renewable energy
considered a major means of transportation [5]. The adoption resource for its production in India.
of renewable energy technologies (RETs) would further lead to The approach to empirical research adopted for this study
socio-economic development i.e. creation of employment was the literature review followed by initial exploratory in-
opportunities, increased GDP, and welfare of the masses ul- terviews with mix population of regulators, developers, con-
timately decreasing the reliance on fossil fuels [6]. Despite sultants, researchers, and top professionals of the green energy
these benefits, the total green hydrogen production accounts firms in India. Based on the extensive literature review and
for a meager 1% of the total 120 megatonnes (Mt) of hydrogen valuable responses from specialists, the final list of the po-
produced every year [7]. To establish economic and environ- tential criteria and renewable energy sources was made based
mentally friendly energy for the future energy demand, these on factors such as economics, environmental impact, com-
dilemmas could be solved by the development of a carbon- mercial potential, technical ease, and social acceptance. The
neutral energy system. Hence, green hydrogen energy pro- presence of multiple potentials and renewable energy sources
duction needs to be encouraged through governmental in- and their sub-categories means that it is an MCDM problem.
centives as mentioned in COP-26. Thus, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Analytic Hier-
Over the years, this fuel has caught the interest of gov- archy Process (FAHP), and Decision making trial and evaluation
ernments, energy sector players, environmental advocacy laboratory (DEMATEL) technique to rank the potential criteria
groups, and users due to its varied benefits. The Government and their sub-criteria [14,15,19] has been used. Moreover, the
of India (GoI) has notified the “The National Hydrogen Energy TOPSIS (Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity
Mission” and “The Green hydrogen policy” on August 15, 2021 to Ideal Solution) method is used to measure and rank the
and February 17, 2022 [8,9] respectively to make India a green renewable energy resources in India to identify the prominent
hydrogen hub. This is done to meet the rising energy demand ones. Besides, a sensitivity analysis is also applied to test the
on a regional and/or national scale, which is estimated to in- methodologies for robustness in both cases. The result of this
crease by around 50% between 2019 and 2030 [10] and to research will guide the Governments, energy sector players,
reduce India's total projected carbon emission by 1 billion producers, environmental advocacy groups, and users to make
tonnes by 2030 and achieve its net-zero carbon emissions by strategic decisions regarding the focus areas while generating
2070 as stated in COP 26 [11]. India is a renewable energy-rich green hydrogen along with the choice of the most viable source
country where the Government's ambitious target is to install of renewable energy for the same.
500 GW of renewable energy where solar will contribute a The study has been organized in the following way: Section
maximum share of 280 GW followed by 140 GW from wind and 2 reviews the literature on identifying and ranking potential
the rest from bio-power, and small hydro-power by the year criteria and renewable energy sources. Section 3 outlines the
2030 [12]. Moreover, green hydrogen production cost in India is research methodology adopted. Section 4 examines the result
estimated to be a meagre $4 per kg to $6 per kg [13]. Hence, this & discussion, Section 5 covers conclusions and implications,
economic energy makes an ideal platform for becoming a and Section 6 discusses the limitations and future scope of
cost-effective hub by 2050 [10]. work.

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx 3

gasification with CCS along with hydropower-based water


2. Literature review electrolysis methods were the best ones. Similarly, the AHP
method has been applied to choose the most competitive
The inception of importance of hydrogen first took place alternate technology for producing hydrogen in Korea;
during the 1970s due to fluctuating oil prices that have led to amongst the advanced technologies such as natural gas
awareness about air pollution and acid rain. During the 1990s, reforming technology (NGR), coal gasification technology (CG),
the Government initiated some funding programs to promote biomass gasification technology (BG), water electrolysis tech-
the use of hydrogen due to rising concerns about carbon nology (WE), thermochemical hydrogen technology (TCH),
capture and storage (CCS), renewable energy, and trans- photoelectrochemical technology (PEC), and biological tech-
portation fuels, but with decreasing oil prices, the funding nology (BL), NGR was found to be the best suitable one [21].
projects couldn't materialize [26]. The year 2019 is seen as a Based on the aforesaid literature along with various Gov-
turning point in an era of green hydrogen, wherein many ernment reports, we have considered economics, environ-
countries have announced national policies and plan to in- mental impact, commercial potential, technical ease, and
crease the intensity of production [1]. An urgency to reduce social acceptance to be the potential criteria for effective green
GHG emissions (COP 26), lower electrolysis costs, renewable hydrogen production in India. Further, AHP FAHP and DEMA-
energy, and hydrogen costs, increased demand for hydrogen, TEL techniques have been used to rank them and their sub-
and the development of the latest technologies have gener- criteria to identify the suitable one. India's renewable energy
ated interest among the various participants to encourage the mix consists mainly of small hydro projects (SHPs) (a hydro-
use of green hydrogen [6]. The increased importance of green power plant with less than 25 MW capacity), biomass power
hydrogen in energy transition has motivated various re- (consisting of urban & industrial (U & I) waste power), solar and
searchers to employ multi-criteria decision-making methods wind energy with installed capacity of 4959.08, 10,813.59,
in this area. 70096.83 and 43,773.08 MW respectively as on June 30, 2023 [28].
Each of the above-mentioned resources has economic poten-
2.1. Studies based on multi-criteria decision making tial, environmental impact, social acceptance, political po-
methods (MCDM) tential, and technical ease at varied levels making it suitable
for hydrogen production in India. India has an ambitious goal
Lee et al. [27] in the year 2022 have adopted Delphi and AHP
of initially producing approximately 5 million tonnes of green
methods to study the barriers to hydrogen fuel cell power
hydrogen production every year by 2030 for which identifying
generation in South Korea and provide solutions for the same.
the best possible renewable resource is vital [29].
The findings have suggested that the most serious barriers are
institutional and political factors with the cost of the unit and 2.2. Renewable energy sources with hydrogen
infrastructure of the fuel cells being important. GRA (grey production
relational analysis) based TOPSIS (Technique for Order of
Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), DEA (Data Envel- 2.2.1. Solar energy
opment Analysis) and Fuzzy-AHP methods have been used in Solar energy is a form of renewable energy, which is derived
Pakistan to identify the optimal renewable energy source for from the sun's radiation. The radiation received on the earth's
green hydrogen production [14e16] with wind energy surface relies on latitude & longitude, seasons, altitude, air
considered to be the best renewable resource for green humidity, and local weather [30]. India is a tropical country lying
hydrogen by Zhao et al. [14] and Chien et al. [15], and biomass between the Tropic of Cancer and the Equator with a major
energy by Xiang et al. [16]. Zhong et al. [19] aimed at identi- portion of the nation receiving 4e7 kWh per sq. m per day [31]
fying the suitable hydrogen production technology among making it a sunlight-abundant country available almost
coal gasification, coke oven gas, electrolytic water, and solar throughout the year. According to the National Institute of Solar
energy using GRA based TOPSIS method and stated that the Energy (NISE), the country's solar potential is around 748 GW
coke oven gas is the most suitable hydrogen production with around 3% of the wasteland area to be covered by Solar PV
technology for the change and growth of coal enterprises. modules. With the notification of the Jawaharlal Nehru Na-
Moreover, Xu et al. [17] in the year 2019 have applied AHP tional Solar Mission (JNNSM) on January 11, 2010 by the Gov-
method to rank the best renewable energy sources for ernment of India with a mission to install 100 GW grid-
hydrogen production based on commercial potential, envi- connected solar power plants by the year 2022 and encourage
ronmental impacts, economic benefits, and social acceptance its generation, India has achieved 5th global position in solar
by using a two-stage fuzzy MCDM (Multi-criteria decision- power deployment. Due to these policy initiatives, solar power
making) approach followed by DEA method. The results capacity has been augmented by more than 11 times in the last
have indicated that wind and solar are the primary sources of five years from 2.6 GW in March 2014 to 30 GW in July 2019,
hydrogen production in Pakistan. making the solar tariffs at par with other forms of energy [31].
In the year 2017 AHP, DEA, and FTOPSIS methods have However, solar energy is considered the cleanest technology for
been employed to prioritize wind farm locations for hydrogen energy production, yet, it uses cadmium and mercury during
production in 13 provinces of Iran with Izadkhast city sug- the process, causing some level of emission [32].
gested to be the suitable location for its construction [18]. Ren
et al. [20] have used Fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS methods to pri- 2.2.2. Wind energy
oritize hydrogen production technologies for promoting the Wind energy is one of the advanced, clean, and cost-effective
hydrogen economy in China. The results stated that coal forms of renewable energy source [30]. Due to uneven heating

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
4 international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

of the earth's surface, the wind is produced, which is further The decision to identify the best possible renewable energy
converted into electricity by combining wind turbines and alternative for green hydrogen production in India is a tedious
generators [33]. India has the fourth highest wind installed task. There are various aspects attached to it such as the de-
capacity in the world with a generation of around 60.149 cisions regarding the evaluation of the most sustainable
Billion Units during 2020e21 [28]. As on June 2023, the installed alternative energy sources in India are crucial and complex.
capacity of renewable energy is 129.6 GW, which constitutes Due to multi-aspect decision potentials such as energy effi-
70.1 GW of solar energy capacity, 43.8 GW of wind energy ciency, funds, and resource availability, social and political
capacity, 4.9 GW of small hydro, and 10.8 GW of biomass acceptance, resource potential, Institution's willingness to
power [28]. To reach this level, various policy initiatives have invest, locational consideration, and cost-effectiveness, it is
been taken to promote generation. The MNRE (Ministry of vital to employ tools to conduct multi-criteria decision-mak-
New and Renewable Energy) assessment report states a gross ing analysis. Therefore, this research aims to identify the
wind power potential of 302 GW and 695.50 GW at 100 m and optimal renewable energy resource based on economic,
120 m above ground level respectively. Rajasthan, Mahara- technical, environmental, social, and political potential using
shtra, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Andhra the F- TOPSIS (Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by
Pradesh are the prominent windy states. Moreover, India has Similarity to Ideal Solution) method.
a long coastline of about 7600 km surrounded by water on
three sides, hence has immense offshore wind energy po-
tential, which has been promoted by the Government through 3. Research methodology
notification of the National offshore wind energy policy on
October 6, 2015 [34]. In the present study, solar, wind, small hydro, and bio-power
energy resources have been identified along with the different
2.2.3. Small hydro energy potentials. This identification is based on the literature review
Hydropower projects are categorized into large and small and inputs from the experts. Assessment of identified poten-
hydro projects (SHPs) depending on their sizes. In India, small tials was performed using pairwise comparison techniques
hydropower plants are of 25 MW or less than this capacity, DEMATEL, AHP, and Fuzzy AHP. Thereafter, the determination
which is further classified into micro (100 kW or below), mini of the most important energy based on the potentials was
(101 kWe2 MW), and small hydro (2e25 MW) segments. A conducted based on analysis using the Fuzzy TOPSIS method.
milestone was built in the year 1897 when the first SHP of
130 kW was built in the hills of Darjeeling [35]. In the year 1989, 3.1. Exploring hydrogen energy and its potentials
all the small hydropower came under the aegis of the MNRE
[36]. Small hydropower projects are also useful in solving en- For identification of the various potentials and the key
ergy issues in inaccessible hilly areas, which cannot be con- renewable energy sources, the researchers have conducted a
nected to the transmission grid system. It also helps in detailed review of the literature. Twenty experts from the
providing jobs and improving the water levels in regions energy sector as well as academia were approached. Based on
adjoining the SHPs. The potential sites include hilly areas of the literature review, five potentials dimensions i.e., eco-
mainly Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & nomic, technical, social, environmental, and politics were
Kashmir, and Uttarakhand, and other states such as Maha- identified. The potentials thus classified consisted of sub-
rashtra, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, and Kerala [36]. potentials (refer to Table 1). Moreover, prominent renewable
energy sources such as Solar energy; Wind energy; Small
2.2.4. Biomass energy Hydro energy; and Biomass energy with hydrogen production
Being an agrarian economy, India has a lot of potential for were identified. The weightage of each potential was obtained
biomass generation due to abundant agro-waste (such as after consultation with the experts and the MCDM techniques
bagasse, rice husk, and many more) accessibilities throughout were thereafter applied.
the year [37]. Due to this, the country was able to achieve
10.17 GW of electricity generation from biomass in 2021 [38].
Apart from agricultural waste, animal dung, organic com- 4. Results and discussions
pounds found in municipal and industrial waste, and, plan-
tations are major contributors of biomass in the country [39]. 4.1. Ranking of the potential
In India, around 32% of the total primary energy use is derived
from biomass and more than 70% of the nation's inhabitants After obtaining the results from the experts, two methods
rely on it to meet their energy requirements. Moreover, the were employed such as AHP and Fuzzy-AHP to rank the po-
country has approx. 750 million metric tonnes per year tentials and their sub-criteria, followed by the application of
accessibility of biomass with an estimated spare of about 230 DEMATEL to identify the influence of one potential over others
million metric tonnes per annum of agricultural residues. as discussed in section 3.1.
Around 14 GW and 28 GW of electricity can be generated
through agricultural waste and bagasse-based cogeneration 4.1.1. Application of analytic hierarchy process for ranking of
respectively [40]. As of June 30, 2023, the installed capacity of potentials
Biomass power/Cogeneration and waste to energy is Experts were consulted to obtain pair-wise comparisons for
10248.01 MW and 565.58 MW respectively [28] leaving a huge the five key potentials through the use of the Saaty scale [46]
potential for biomass in the country. (refer to Table 2). The pair-wise comparison was done by the

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx 5

Table 1 e Potential categories and sub-categories.


Criteria code Sub-Criteria References
EP1 Initial investment [1,26,36,39,41e44]
EP2 Operations and Maintenance cost
EP3 Levelized Cost of Energy
EP4 Lifecycle of the renewable project best
EP5 Availability of Funds/Incentives
TP1 Technology Maturity [1,26,30,39,41e44]
TP2 Plant Efficiency
TP3 Educated workforce
TP4 Resource availability
TP5 Implementation Time
SP1 Social benefits (education, promoting a sustainable lifestyle) [1,30,41,44,45]
SP2 Job opportunities
SP3 Public acceptance
SP4 Reduction in local air pollution affecting the health of the local populace
ENP1 Infrastructure proximity to the hydrogen plant [1,30,41,43e45]
ENP2 Reduction in Carbon Emission
ENP3 Capacity to work with other sources
ENP4 Positive Impact on the Ecosystem
PP1 Politic acceptance [1,30,41,43e45]
PP2 Reliance on a foreign country for energy
PP3 National energy policy
PP4 Initiatives at the Institutional level best

experts for 7 main categories of issues by assigning the Saaty


Table 4 e Normalized weights of economic potential (EP).
scale for AHP (refer to Table 2). A normalized pairwise com-
parison matrix for the category of potentials as explained in Sub-criteria EP1 EP2 EP3 EP4 EP5
Section 2 is exhibited in Table 5. Random Index for 5 potentials EP1 0.0556 0.0303 0.0769 0.0459 0.0404
is 1.12 [47]. For the main categories of the five criteria; eco- EP2 0.1111 0.0606 0.0769 0.0367 0.0505
nomic potential, technical potential, social potential, envi- EP3 0.3333 0.3636 0.4615 0.3670 0.6061
EP4 0.2222 0.3030 0.2308 0.1835 0.1010
ronmental potential, and political potential, l max was
EP5 0.2778 0.2424 0.1538 0.3670 0.2020
estimated to be 5.232, the Consistency Index (CI) is 0.058 and
Source: Self Composition
the Consistency Ratio (CR) for 5 main categories was calcu-
lated to be 0.051. As the value of CR is less than 0.10, the
suitability of the data is indicated. Tables 3e8 represents the
normalized weights of the sub-criteria of each category. Table 5 e Normalized weights of technical potential (TP).
The normalized weights for the main criteria and sub-
Sub-criteria TP1 TP2 TP3 TP4 TP5
criteria were calculated and appropriately exhibited in
TP1 0.0789 0.0556 0.1667 0.0833 0.1957
TP2 0.3947 0.2778 0.2778 0.2500 0.3261
TP3 0.0263 0.0556 0.0556 0.0833 0.0217
Table 2 e Importance level for AHP/FAHP. TP4 0.4737 0.5556 0.3333 0.5000 0.3913
Preference rating Linguistic Code TFNs TP5 0.0263 0.0556 0.1667 0.0833 0.0652

Equal Importance 1 (1,1,1) Source: Self Composition


Equal Importance 2 (1,2,3)
Not at all important 3 (2,3,4)
Table 9. The table also presents the rank for each criterion and
Slightly Imp 4 (3,4,5)
sub-criteria.
Moderately Important 5 (4,5,6)
Moderately Highly Important 6 (5,6,7) From the above table, it is observed that the sequence of
Highly Important 7 (6,7,7) final ranks of the key potentials with an application of the AHP
method is TP > SP > PP > ENP > EP.

Table 3 e Normalized Weights of the main criteria (AHP).


Table 6 e Normalized weights of social potential (SP).
Main Category of Criteria EP TP EP ENP PP
Sub-criteria SP1 SP2 SP3 SP4
EP 0.0556 0.0638 0.0758 0.0222 0.0426
TP 0.2222 0.2553 0.2273 0.2667 0.3830 SP1 0.0811 0.0921 0.1667 0.0598
SP 0.3333 0.5106 0.4545 0.4444 0.3830 SP2 0.4865 0.5526 0.3889 0.5983
ENP 0.2222 0.0851 0.0909 0.0889 0.0638 SP3 0.0270 0.0789 0.0556 0.0427
PP 0.1667 0.0851 0.1515 0.1778 0.1277 SP4 0.4054 0.2763 0.3889 0.2991

Source: Self Composition Source: Self Composition

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
6 international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

the potentials and their sub-criteria. Thereafter, the weighted


Table 7 e Normalized weights of environmental potential
score of the potentials and their sub-criteria were estimated
(ENP).
for the potentials along with their sub-criteria and the fuzzy
Sub-criteria ENP1 ENP2 ENP3 ENP4
weights along with their rankings as presented in Table 10.
ENP1 0.0625 0.0833 0.0400 0.0541 Based on the analysis using the FAHP method presented in
ENP2 0.3750 0.5000 0.4800 0.5405 Table 12, the final ranks are SP > TP > PP > ENP > EP. Table 11
ENP3 0.2500 0.1667 0.1600 0.1351
below presents a comparison of ranks obtained through both
ENP4 0.3125 0.2500 0.3200 0.2703
AHP and FAHP methods while Table 12 presents the sequence
Source: Self Composition ranks held by different criteria and sub-criteria.

4.1.3. Application of DEMATEL method for cause/effect


Table 8 e Normalized weights of political potential (PP). relation
The DEMATEL approach is applied in this section to analyze
Sub-criteria PP1 PP2 PP3 PP4
the complex relations among the potentials. The comparison
PP1 0.0882 0.1765 0.0462 0.1069 scale (refer to Section 3) was used to rate the influence of one
PP2 0.0294 0.0588 0.0308 0.0916
potential over the others. After following the steps
PP3 0.3529 0.3529 0.1846 0.1603
PP4 0.5294 0.4118 0.7385 0.6412
mentioned in Section 3.2, the total relation matrix (T) is
estimated as presented in Table 13. The row sum is depicted
Source: Self Composition
as Ri and the column sum is depicted as Ci. Once Ri and Ci
are computed, the value of Ri-Ci helps decide whether the
potential is a cause potential or an effect potential. With a
positive value of Ri-Ci, the potential is said to because po-
4.1.2. Applying the fuzzy AHP method for ranking of
tential, and with a negative value of Ri-Ci, the potential is
potentials
said to be Effect potential.
With the help of expert consultation, triangular fuzzy
numbers were used to determine pair-wise comparisons for

Table 10 e Fuzzy Weights of Geometric Means - wl, wm,


Table 9 e Criteria weights and corresponding ranks. and wu.
Main Criteria Criteria/Sub-criteria Weight Rank Criteria wl wm wu Mi Ni Rank
EP 5.1048 5 EP 0.0320 0.0494 0.0835 0.0550 0.0498 5
TP 5.3425 1 TP 0.1564 0.2734 0.4933 0.3077 0.2789 2
SP 5.3037 2 SP 0.2479 0.4333 0.7128 0.4647 0.4212 1
ENP 5.1214 4 ENP 0.0628 0.1025 0.1869 0.1174 0.1064 4
PP 5.2919 3 PP 0.0782 0.1414 0.2558 0.1585 0.1437 3
Economic Potential Economic Potential
EP1 5.1433 4 EP1 0.0317 0.0494 0.0863 0.0558 0.0509 5
EP2 5.0859 5 EP2 0.0395 0.0652 0.1075 0.0707 0.0645 4
EP3 5.3722 1 EP3 0.2518 0.4332 0.7005 0.4618 0.4214 1
EP4 5.1928 3 EP4 0.1220 0.2040 0.3863 0.2374 0.2166 3
EP5 5.3283 2 EP5 0.1434 0.2482 0.4190 0.2702 0.2465 2
Technical Potential Technical Potential
TP1 5.4810 3 TP1 0.0699 0.1081 0.1655 0.1145 0.1076 3
TP2 5.7339 1 TP2 0.2063 0.3145 0.5070 0.3426 0.3219 2
TP3 5.1512 4 TP3 0.0304 0.0449 0.0720 0.0491 0.0461 5
TP4 5.6015 2 TP4 0.2939 0.4629 0.6927 0.4832 0.4540 1
TP5 5.0339 5 TP5 0.0461 0.0697 0.1092 0.0750 0.0704 4
Social Potential Social Potential
SP1 4.0636 3 SP1 0.0664 0.0950 0.1406 0.1006 0.0957 3
SP2 4.2411 2 SP2 0.3324 0.5112 0.7320 0.5252 0.4993 1
SP3 4.0273 4 SP3 0.0380 0.0485 0.0722 0.0529 0.0503 4
SP4 4.2425 1 SP4 0.2389 0.3454 0.5352 0.3732 0.3547 2
Environmental Potential Environment Potential
ENP1 4.0199 4 ENP1 0.0392 0.0587 0.0940 0.0639 0.0577 4
ENP2 4.1022 1 ENP2 0.2653 0.4756 0.7920 0.5109 0.4611 1
ENP3 4.0455 3 ENP3 0.1055 0.1754 0.3289 0.2033 0.1835 3
ENP4 4.0976 2 ENP4 0.1603 0.2903 0.5388 0.3298 0.2977 2
Political Potential Political Potential
PP1 4.0674 3 PP1 0.0670 0.0981 0.1395 0.1015 0.0975 3
PP2 4.0670 4 PP2 0.0366 0.0493 0.0697 0.0519 0.0498 4
PP3 4.3449 2 PP3 0.1802 0.2583 0.4402 0.2929 0.2814 2
PP4 4.5262 1 PP4 0.4218 0.5943 0.7679 0.5946 0.5712 1

Source: Self Composition Source: Self Composition

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx 7

Table 11 e Criteria weight ranks for AHP and Table 12 e The potential criteria in sequence.
FAHP(comparison).
RANKS CRITERIA
Criteria For AHP Method For FAHP Method
5 EP
EP 5 5 1,2 TP
TP 1 2 2,1 SP
SP 2 1 4 ENP
ENP 4 4 3 PP
PP 3 3 Economic Potential
Economic Potential 4,5 EP1
EP1 4 5 5,4 EP2
EP2 5 4 1 EP3
EP3 1 1 3 EP4
EP4 3 3 2 EP5
EP5 2 2 Technical Potential
Technical Potential 3 TP1
TP1 3 3 1,2 TP2
TP2 1 2 4,5 TP3
TP3 4 5 2,1 TP4
TP4 2 1 5,4 TP5
TP5 5 4 Social Potential
Social Potential 3 SP1
SP1 3 3 2,1 SP2
SP2 2 1 4 SP3
SP3 4 4 1,2 SP4
SP4 1 2 Environment Potential
Environment Potential 4 ENP1
ENP1 4 4 1 ENP2
ENP2 1 1 3 ENP3
ENP3 3 3 2 ENP4
ENP4 2 2 Political Potential
Political Potential 3 PP1
PP1 3 3 4 PP2
PP2 4 4 2 PP3
PP3 2 2 1 PP4
PP4 1 1
Source: Self Composition
Source: Self Composition

method, social potential ranks first and second when FAHP is


Table 14 exhibits the cause-and-effect relationship of the applied. This is important as according to Refs. [6,7], adoption
five key potentials (Refer to Fig. 1). of green hydrogen leads to employment opportunities (SP2),
increased GDP, and welfare of the masses ultimately
4.1.4. Discussion based on the ranking of potential decreasing the reliance on fossil fuel. With the Governments
The second objective aimed to classify and rank the potentials commitments under COP 26, to create employment of
and their sub-criteria for the growth of green hydrogen in renewable energy in green hydrogen production, jobs would
India. Table 1 displays an overview of various potentials and increase in the steel and chemical industry, refineries, and
their classification like Economical, Technical, Environmental, transport sector and power generation [1] providing sustain-
Political, and Social. It is apparent from the table that the able lifestyles (SP1) to the people and readily being accepted by
extant literature suggests five categories of potentials with 22 the masses (SP3). The results of AHP and Fuzzy AHP have
sub-criteria. According to the results of the AHP analysis ranked SP2 and SP4 as 2 &1 and 1&2 respectively followed by
TP > SP > ENP > PP > EP and as per the FAHP method analysis SP1 as 3 and SP3 as 4 in both cases, leading to huge social
SP > TP > ENP > PP > EP. However, the results of the DEMATEL potential in India.
analysis suggest that the most influential potential is social
and the least one is Technical. Based on “Ri þ Ci” values, the
cause potentials are EP > PP > TP and the effect potentials are
Table 13 e Total relation matrix.
SP > ENP (Based on “Ri-Ci”). Hence, from a broader perspective,
EP TP SP ENP PP Ri
producing hydrogen using green energy would have greater
social potential in comparison with others. EP 0.8333 0.8694 1.3185 1.1903 0.9872 5.1987
TP 0.7428 0.5007 1.0315 0.8746 0.6715 3.8212
SP 1.0068 0.8005 1.0589 1.2248 1.0216 5.1126
4.1.4.1. Potential of green hydrogen in India
ENP 0.4368 0.3693 0.6003 0.4403 0.4247 2.2715
4.1.4.1.1. Social Potential. Shifting towards a green
PP 1.0890 0.8299 1.3364 1.2101 0.8194 5.2848
hydrogen economy has a great social potential i.e. providing Ci 4.1088 3.3697 5.3456 4.9401 3.9245
better air quality (SP4) thereby improving the health of people
Source: Self Composition
and creating lucrative job opportunities. According to the AHP

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
8 international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

green hydrogen production technologies (PP3, ranked as 2 by


Table 14 e Cause and effect of categories.
AHP and Fuzzy AHP method). Moreover, various research in-
code Ri Ci Ri þ Ci Ri-Ci Identify Rank stitutions and industries such as the IIT (Indian Institute of
EP 5.1987 4.1088 9.3075 1.0899 Cause 2 Technology), Reliance Group (PP4, ranked as 1) and others have
TP 3.8212 3.3697 7.1909 0.4514 Cause 5 shown their interest in green hydrogen production with the
SP 5.1126 5.3456 10.4582 0.2330 Effect 1 main aim to reduce energy dependency on foreign countries
ENP 2.2715 4.9401 7.2117 2.6686 Effect 4
(PP2, ranked as 4) [45,49]. Yet, the Government acceptance (PP1,
PP 5.2848 3.9245 9.2093 1.3603 Cause 3
ranked as 3) due to high international standard is a hurdle to
Source: Self Composition the development of green hydrogen in India [50].
4.1.4.1.4. Environmental potential. Literature [1,14,16,45]
4.1.4.1.2. Technical potential. Apart from having immense mentioned that green hydrogen to be a cleaner fuel leading to
social potential, producing green hydrogen in have technical a reduction in carbon emissions (ENP2 ranked as 1 on applying
ease as well. As per the AHP method, technical potential ranks both methods). Moreover, it has a positive impact on the
second and first when FAHP is applied, reflecting that tech- ecosystem (ENP4 ranked as 2), and has capacity to work with
nical potential is as important as social. To switch to a cleaner other sources (ENP3 ranked as 3). Yet as a whole, environ-
economy, India has made an ambitious plan to scale up mental potential has been ranked four, according to the AHP
renewable energy production (under COP 26) which would and Fuzzy method, this is due to the high water consumption
lead to an increase in its availability (TP4), Hence it has been in the production of green hydrogen for electrolysis, which is
ranked as 1 and 2 on applying AHP and fuzzy method already available in limited quantity in India. Each kg of
respectively. According to the National Hydrogen Mission, hydrogen uses around 8.92 L of demineralized water, Hence
2022, a lot of initiatives have been taken to improve hydrogen desalination plants need to be installed to avoid the issue
technologies with a focus on its generation through water further [51]. Moreover, green hydrogen production can only be
electrolysis [1], which is a net zero route. With the availability a success if the plant is close to the renewable resource (ENP1
of variable renewable energy, the availability of electrolyzers ranked as 4) [52], which entails various risks and have a ripple
increases with better efficiency (TP2 ranked as 2 by both the effect on the entire value chain.
techniques) and technological maturity (TP1 ranked as 2 &1 by 4.1.4.1.5. Economic potential. Despite economic potential
AHP and fuzzy AHP method). However, implementation time has been indicated as ranked one [1,14,16], but by applying
(TP5) and workforce with relevant education (TP3) is still both methods, it has been ranked as five. The cost of hydrogen
ranked at 4 &5 and 5&4 on applying AHP and Fuzzy AHP currently from electrolysis is around Rs. 400/kg in comparison
respectively. This is due to various economic challenges faced with Rs.140e180/kg from natural gas reformation [45], which is
by the nation in switching to technology [26]. likely to decline, subject to a fall in the costs of electricity (Solar
4.1.4.1.3. Political potential. Political potential has been PV through reverse auction method) and electrolyzers (EP3
ranked 3 on the application of both methods. The intention to ranked as 1 as per both the methods). According to Ref. [52],
incorporate renewable energy has been observed in the Elec- around US$ 300 billion is planned to be invested worldwide in
tricity Act 2003, wherein the focus was to promote grid- the green hydrogen energy sector by 2030. However, consid-
connected renewable energy and renewable purchase obliga- ering the sector being at an incipient stage with too much
tions (RPO) followed by the introduction of preferential feed-in dependence on the supply chain, the banks and other in-
tariffs (FIT) under National Tariff Policy, 2016 [48] and intro- stitutions have become apprehensive about funding such
duction of various green energy products at the two trading projects (EP5 ranked as 2). Moreover, the cost of initial in-
platforms, since the year 2011. Based on it, the Government of vestments (EP1 ranked as 4 and 5 by AHP and Fuzzy method
India has also launched National Hydrogen Mission and its respectively), high technology cost, operations, and mainte-
Policy in 2022 [8,9] (COP 26) to provide a framework for robust nance cost (EP2 ranked as 5 and 4 by AHP and Fuzzy method

Fig. 1 e Cause and effect - Dematel analysis.

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx 9

Table 15 e Sensitivity analysis of main criteria with “SP” criteria weight changes from (0.4212*0.9 … 0.4212*0.1).
Potential Normalized SP ¼ 0.4212 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
SP 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TP 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
PP 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ENP 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
EP 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

respectively), and lifecycle of the renewable project is an issue


(EP4 ranked as 3) [51]. Hence, as committed in COP-26, various
Table 18 e Ranking for energy types.
economic incentives are required for hydrogen production.
Energy Type di* di- Closeness coefficient Rank
4.1.5. Sensitivity analysis for the ranking of potentials Wind Energy 5 6 0.5140 2
This study categorized five key criteria and out of these five, Solar Energy 1 9 0.8670 1
Biomass 9 1 0.1330 4
the highly prioritized criteria is ‘Social Potential (SP). Based on
Small Hydro 6 5 0.4492 3
sensitivity analysis, a slight fluctuation in the weightage of
highly ranked categories can influence the rest of the cate- Source: Self Composition

gories (see Table 15). To address the fluctuations among var-


iables, sensitivity analysis has been performed and highly 4.2. Ranking of energy sources
prioritized category weightage changed from 0.4212 (SP) to
0.4212*0.9, 0.4212*0.8 …. 0.4212*0.1 with values taken up to 4.2.1. Application of the fuzzy TOPSIS method
four decimal places (refer to Fig. 1) as shown in Fig. 2. Table 16 exhibits a fuzzy score matrix for the different energy
types while the weighted normalized fuzzy decision matrix is
depicted in Table 17. Thereafter, the Ideal solution is deter-
mined using fuzzy positive and negative vectors and calcu-
lating the distance of each solution from both the positive and
negative vectors to arrive at the closeness coefficient value
(refer to Table 18).
Table 18 reveals that the sequence of prioritization of en-
ergy types based on analysis through Fuzzy TOPSIS is
following the decreasing order of solar energy > wind
energy > small hydro > biomass.

4.2.2. Sensitivity analysis of ranking of energy types


To ensure the reliability and consistency of the results ob-
tained, sensitivity analysis can be employed. In the method
used, nine iterations were performed as presented in Table 19.
The result has been presented graphically in Fig. 3. As indi-
Fig. 2 e Results of sensitivity analysis for criteria.
cated by the final results, Solar Energy holds the highest rank.
The rank prioritization indicated by the sensitivity analysis is
the same for different types of energy and thereby suggests
Table 16 e Fuzzy score matrix for Energy types. that the results are reliable.
EP TP SP ENP PP In this study, Fuzzy TOPSIS and sensitivity analysis have
been done to provide better clarity to the renewable market
Wind Energy (3,5,7) (5,7,9) (3,5,7) (5,7,9) (5,7,9)
stakeholders to focus on which type of renewable energy for
Solar Energy (5,7,9) (7,9,9) (5,7,9) (7,9,9) (7,9,9)
Biomass (1,3,5) (3,5,7) (1,3,5) (3,5,7) (3,5,7)
hydrogen generation and take appropriate methods accord-
Small Hydro (3,5,7) (5,7,9) (3,5,7) (3,5,7) (5,7,9) ingly. Concerning the results above (Refer to Tables 18 and 19),
it has been observed that solar energy is the best source of
Source: Self Composition
renewable energy in comparison with wind, biomass, and

Table 17 e Weighted normalized fuzzy decision matrix for Energy types.


EP TP SP ENP PP
Wind Energy (.14,.20,.99) (2.75,5.39,9) (2.31,4.95,6.93) (.55,2.31,5) (1.65,3.85,7)
Solar Energy (.11,.14,.60) (3.85,7,9) (3.85,6.93,9) (.77,3,5) (2.31,5,7)
Biomass (.20,.33,3) (1.65,3.85,6.93) (.77,2.97,4.95) (.33,1.65,3.85) (.99,2.75,5.39)
Small Hydro (.14,.20,.99) (2.75,5.39,9) (2.31,4.95,6.93) (.33,1.65,3.85) (1.65,3.85,7)

Source: Self Composition

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
10 international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 19 e Sensitivity Analysis results for Energy types.


Normalized (0.442) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Solar Energy 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Wind Energy 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Small Hydro 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Biomass 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Source: Self Composition

technical, social, environmental, and politics) through extant


literature and expert interviews for robust policy frameworks.
Besides, authors used a multi-criteria decision-making
approach (AHP, DEMATEL, and Fuzzy AHP) followed by its
sensitivity analysis to identify the best and most economical
one. The results of AHP gave the ranks of all predictors in the
following order of technical potential (ranked 1), followed by
social (ranked 2), environmental (ranked 3), political (ranked
4), and economic potential (ranked 5). Consequently, the
Fuzzy-AHP method indicates that social potential (ranked 1) is
given due importance compared to others in the sequence like
technical (ranked 2), environmental (ranked 3), political
(ranked 4) and economic potentials (ranked 5). The results of
Fig. 3 e Sensitivity Analysis results for Energy types. the DEMATEL analysis suggest that social is the most influ-
ential potential and technical is the least one. It has been
observed that green hydrogen has huge socio-economic po-
small hydro. Other scholars have conducted similar research tential and will be helpful to achieve the sustainable energy
in Pakistan suggesting wind energy [14,15], biomass energy targets of India. Thus, Government need to take more atten-
[16], and both wind & solar energy [17] to be the best renew- tion to green hydrogen production leading to better plant ef-
able resource for green hydrogen. However, according to the ficiency and technological maturity which will act as a
International Renewable Energy Agency (2020) [7] report, solar practical engineering solution in the future to fulfil the energy
energy is considered to be one of the cleanest and cheapest demand.
energy sources in India with huge technical and social po- However, cost, political acceptance, and potential water
tential [53]. Hence, it has a lot of scope to meet the energy shortage are some of the major issues, which the Government
needs of the country, especially in rural areas where the needs to look into. The cost of hydrogen from electrolysis
stand-alone solar system works effectively with fewer ranges between $4e7 per kg depending on various technology
installation hassles and more financial incentives [54,55]. choices and other costs such as the operating costs, trans-
Lower solar tariffs indicate the lesser cost of generating the mission and distribution (T&D) costs, and wheeling charges
electrolysis for hydrogen production and abundant sunlight for electricity and local duties and taxes like the goods and
suggests that India can generate over 1000 GW of solar energy services tax (GST). This makes it difficult for it to sustain in
on just 0.5% of landmass. Although, there are various com- comparison with the existing cost of grey or brown hydrogen.
panies such as Adani Solar, Premier Energies, Vikram Solar, Nevertheless, India has some of the most competitive lev-
Waaree, and many more, who have invested in Solar PV elized costs of electricity (LCOE) for solar and wind in the
modules and their technologies [56,59] backed by government world being a net importer of natural gas. Because there is a
initiatives [57,58]. possibility of a decline in the electrolyzer cost and levelized
cost of electricity, the transition towards green hydrogen
seems to be easy. Further, the authors have applied the fuzzy
5. Conclusion and way's forward TOPSIS method with its authentication check by sensitivity
analysis. The results suggest that solar energy (ranked 1) is
Governments and industries both recognized that green considered the most prominent resource to produce green
hydrogen is an important pillar of a net zero economy in India. hydrogen in India followed by wind energy (ranked 2), small
There is an unprecedented drive to meet its potential as a hydro (ranked 3), and biomass (ranked 4). Hence, the Gov-
clean energy solution, however, it is still at a nascent stage ernment should aim to increase the production of solar and
and an empirical investigation in terms of identifying, cate- wind energy.
gorizing, and prioritizing is required to recognize its potential As a policy implication, once the suitable potential and the
and best renewable resource leading to the growth of this most viable renewable energy have been identified, it will be
sector. Through our extensive literature review, we have beneficial for industry and regulatory bodies to focus on the
identified four major renewable sources available in India key areas for the development of green hydrogen in India. The
with huge energy potential, and 22 green hydrogen potentials, life cycle of the green hydrogen project has a lot of potential as
and have categorized those into five dimensions (economic, well as barriers, hence it is vital to provide the right inputs to

Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
international journal of hydrogen energy xxx (xxxx) xxx 11

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Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
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Please cite this article as: Gupta S et al., Green hydrogen in India: Prioritization of its potential and viable renewable source, Interna-
tional Journal of Hydrogen Energy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.08.166
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