Probability

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YOUR NOTES
AS Maths CIE 
2. Probability
CONTENTS
2.1 Basic Probability
2.1.1 Calculating Probabilities & Events
2.1.2 Venn Diagrams
2.1.3 Tree Diagrams
2.2 Permutations & Combinations
2.2.1 Arrangements & Factorials
2.2.2 Permutations
2.2.3 Combinations
2.3 Further Probability
2.3.1 Set Notation & Conditional Probability
2.3.2 Further Tree Diagrams
2.3.3 Further Venn Diagrams
2.3.4 Probability Formulae
Page 1 of 61
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2.1 Basic Probability YOUR NOTES


2.1.1 Calculating Probabilities & Events
Probability Basics
What do I need to know about probability for AS and A level Mathematics?
The language used in probability can be confusing so here are some definitions of
commonly misunderstood terms
An experiment is a repeatable activity that has a result that can be observed or
recorded; it is what is happening in a question
An outcome is the result of an experiment
All possible outcomes can be shown in a sample space – this may be a list or
a table and is particularly useful when it is difficult to envisage all possible
outcomes in your head
e.g. The sample space below is for two fair four-sided spinners whose
outcomes are the product of the sides showing when spun.
An event is an outcome or a collection of outcomes; it is what we are

interested in happening
Do note how this could be more than one outcome
e.g. For the spinners above,
the event “the product is -2” has one outcome but
the event “the product is negative” has 6 outcomes
Terminology - be careful with the words 'not', 'and' and 'or'
A and B means both the events A and B happen at the same time
A and B is formally written as A ∩ B (∩ is called intersection)
A or B means event A happens, or event B happens, or both happen
A or B is formally written as A ∪ B (∪ is called union)
not A means the event A does not happen
not A is formally written as A' (pronounced "A prime ")
Notation – the way probabilities are written is formal and consistent at A-level
P (A ) = 0 . 6 “the probability of event A happening is 0.6”
P (A ') = 0 . 4 “the probability of event A not happening equals 0.4”
⎯⎯⎯
(This is sometimes written as P (A ) )
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P (X ≤ 4) = 0 . 4 “the probability of being less than four is 0.4” YOUR NOTES

How do I solve A level probability questions? 
Recall basic results of probability
number of ways to get " success "
P (" success " ) =
total number of outcomes
It is important to understand that the above only applies if all outcomes
are equally likely
P(A ') = 1 − P(A )
The probability of “ not A ” is the complement of the probability of “A”
One of the easiest results in probability to understand,
one of the hardest results to spot!
Be aware of whether you are using theoretical probabilities or probabilities based
on the results of several experiments (relative frequency). You may have to
compare the two and make a judgement as to whether there is bias in the
experiment.
e.g. The outcomes from rolling a fair dice have theoretical probabilities but
the outcomes from a football match would be based on previous results between
the two teams
For probabilities based on relative frequency, a large number of experiments
usually provides a better estimate of the probability of an event happening
Frequencies or probabilities may have to be read from basic statistical diagrams
such as bar charts, box-and-whisker diagrams, stem and leaf diagrams, etc
 Worked Example
A fair, five-sided spinner has its sides labelled 2, 5, 8, 10 and 11.
Find, from one spin, the probability that the spinner shows
(i)
8
(ii)
a prime number
(iii)
an odd prime number
(iv)
a number other than 5.
Page 3 of 61
YOUR NOTES
 ExamMostTipprobability questions are in context so can be long and wordy; go 
back and re-read the question, several times, whenever you need to
Try to get immersed in the context of the question to help understand a
problem
Page 4 of 61
Independent & Mutually Exclusive Events YOUR NOTES

What are independent events? 
Independent events do not affect each other
For two independent events, the probability of one event happening is unaffected
by the outcome of the other event
e.g. The events “rolling a 6 on a dice” and “flipping heads on a coin” are
independent
the outcome “rolling a 6” does not affect the probability of the outcome
“heads” (and vice versa)
For two independent events, A and B
P (A AND B ) = P (A ) × P (B )
1 1 1
e.g. P (" 6 on a dice " OR " heads on a coin " ) = × =
6 2 12
Independent events could refer to events from different experiments

What are mutually exclusive events?
Mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously
P (A AND B ) = P (A ∩ B ) = 0
For two mutually exclusive events, the outcome of one event means the other
event cannot occur
e.g. The events “rolling a 5 on a die” and “rolling a 6 on a die” are mutually
exclusive
For two mutually exclusive events, A and B
P (A OR B ) = P (A ∪ B ) = P (A ) + P (B )
1 1 2 ⎛1⎞
e.g. P(" 6 on a dice " OR " heads on a coin " ) = + =
6 6 6
= ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝3⎠
Mutually exclusive events generally refer to events from the same (single trial of
an) experiment
Mutually exclusive events cannot be independent; the outcome of one event means
the probability of the other event is zero
How do I solve problems involving independent and mutually exclusive
events?
Make sure you know the statistical terms – independent and mutually exclusive
Remember
independence is AND(∩) and is ×
mutual exclusivity is OR (∪) and is +
Solving problems will require interpreting the information given and the
application of the appropriate formula
Information may be explained in words or by diagram(s)
(including Venn diagrams – see Revision Note Venn Diagrams)
Page 5 of 61
Showing or determining whether two events are independent or mutually YOUR NOTES
exclusive are also common 
To do this you would show the relevant formula is true
 Worked
(a)
Example
Two events, Q and R are such that P(Q ) = 0 . 8 and P(Q and R) = 0 . 1.
Given that Q and R are independent, find P( R)
(b)
Two events, S and T are such that P( S) = 2P(T ) .
Given that S and T are mutually exclusive and that P( S and T ) = 0 . 6 find
P( S) and P(T ) .
(c)
A fair five-sided spinner has sides labelled 2, 3, 5, 7, 11.
Find the probability that the spinner lands on a number greater than 5.
(a)
Two events, Q and R are such that P(Q ) = 0 . 8 and P(Q and R) = 0 . 1.
Given that Q and R are independent, find P( R)
(b)
Two events, S and T are such that P( S) = 2P(T ) .
Given that S and T are mutually exclusive and that P( S and T ) = 0 . 6 find P( S) and
P(T ) .
Page 6 of 61
YOUR NOTES

(c)
A fair five-sided spinner has sides labelled 2, 3, 5, 7, 11.
Find the probability that the spinner lands on a number greater than 5.
 ExamTryTip
to rephrase questions in your head in terms of AND and/or OR !
e.g. A fair six-sided die is rolled and a fair coin is flipped.
“Find the probability of obtaining a prime number with heads.”
would be
“Find the probability of rolling a 2 OR a 3 OR a 5 AND heads.”
Page 7 of 61
2.1.2 Venn Diagrams YOUR NOTES


Venn Diagrams
What is a Venn diagram?
A Venn diagram is a way to illustrate events and are particularly useful when
outcomes overlap
Venn diagrams are mostly used for 2 or 3 events
A Venn diagram consists of a box (rectangle) and a bubble (circle/ellipse) for each
event
Bubbles may or may not overlap
Bubble(s) is not a technical term, but we like it!
The box represents all outcomes
It is often referred to as the Universal Set and is commonly labelled with the
symbols ℰ (Kunstler script font uppercase letter E)S , U or ξ (Greek lowercase
letter Xi)
There is no standardised symbol for this purpose
Bubbles are labelled with their event name (A, B, etc)
The numbers inside a Venn diagram (there should be one in each region) will
represent either a frequency or a probability
In the case of probabilities being shown, all values should total 1
What do the different regions and bubbles overlapping mean on a Venn

diagram?
This will depend on how many events there are and how the outcomes overlap
Venn diagrams show ‘AND’ and ‘OR’ statements easily
Page 8 of 61
YOUR NOTES

 Worked Example
40 people were surveyed regarding which games consoles they owned.
8 people said they owned a Playstation 5 (P ) and an Xbox Series X (X ).
5 people said they owned neither of these consoles.
Of those people that owned only one games console, twice as many owned
an Xbox Series X as a Playstation 5.
One of the 40 people is chosen at random. Find the probability that this
person
(i)
owns both consoles,
(ii)
owns exactly one console,
(iii)
doesn’t own a Playstation 5.
Page 9 of 61
YOUR NOTES

Page 10 of 61
YOUR NOTES
 ExamTheTip
rectangle in a Venn diagram is a key part of the diagram 
it represents all possible outcomes of the experiment
the bubbles merely represent the events we are particularly
interested in
there is usually a few possibilities that fall outside of these events
so this would be the section outside the bubbles but inside the
rectangle
A quick ‘mini-Venn’ diagram shading the parts required to answer the
question can be useful rather than always drawing a full Venn diagram
with all its values
Page 11 of 61
2.1.3 Tree Diagrams YOUR NOTES


Tree Diagrams
What is a tree diagram?
A tree diagram is used to
show the (combined) outcomes of more than one event that happen one after
the other
help calculate probabilities when AND and/or OR’s are involved
Tree diagrams are mostly used when there are only two mutually exclusive
outcomes of interest
e.g. “Rolling a 6 on a die” and “Not rolling a 6 on a die”
More than three outcomes per event can be shown on a tree diagram but they soon
become difficult to draw and so lose their effectiveness
Tree diagrams are very helpful when probabilities for a second event change
depending on the first event
How do I draw and label a tree diagram?
In the second experiment, P(B) may be different on the top set of branches than
the bottom set
this is because the top set of branches follow on from event A but the bottom
set of branches follow on from event “ not A ”
e.g. This is most commonly seen in drawing one item at random, not
replacing it, then drawing another
Sometimes a second branch may not be needed following a first event
e.g. In aiming to pass a test (experiment) the event fail on the first attempt
would require a second attempt but the event pass on the first attempt would
not
How do I solve probability problems involving tree diagrams?

Interpret questions in terms of AND and/or OR (See 1 Basic Probability)
Page 12 of 61
Draw, or complete a given, tree diagram YOUR NOTES

Determine any missing probabilities; often using 1 − P (A ) and considering 
if probabilities change depending on the outcome from the 1st experiment
Write down the (final) outcome of the combined events and work out their
probabilities – these are AND statements
P (A AND B ) = P (A ) × P (B ) (“Multiply along branches”)
Do not simplify fractions yet – it’ll be easier to calculate with them later
you can of course use your calculator
If more than one (final) outcome is required to answer a question then add their
probabilities – these are OR statements
P (AB OR " not A " " not B " ) = P (AB ) + P (" not A " " not B " ) (“Add outcomes”)
This applies since all the (final) outcomes are mutually exclusive
Note that AB , " not A " " not B " are implied AND statements (for example AB
means A and B)
When you are confident with tree diagrams you can just pull out the (final)
outcome(s) you need to answer a question rather than routinely list all of them
 Worked Example
A contestant on a game show has three attempts to hit a target in a
shooting game.
They have a maximum of three attempts to hit the target in order to win the
star prize – a speedboat. If they do not hit the target within three attempts,
they do not win anything.
The probability of them hitting the target first time is 0.2. With each
successive attempt the probability of them failing to hit the target is halved.
Find the probability that a contestant wins the star prize of a speedboat.
Page 13 of 61
YOUR NOTES
 ExamIt can
Tip
be tricky to get a tree diagram looking neat and clear first attempt 
– it can be worth drawing a rough one first, especially if there are more
than two outcomes or more than two events; do keep an eye on the
exam clock though!
Always worth another mention – tree diagrams make particularly
frequent use of the result
P (not A) = 1 − P(A)
Tree diagrams have built-in checks
the probabilities for each pair of branches should add up to 1
the probabilities for each outcome of combined events should add
up to 1
Page 14 of 61
2.2 Permutations & Combinations YOUR NOTES


2.2.1 Arrangements & Factorials
Arrangements
How many ways can n different objects be arranged?
When considering how many ways you can arrange a number of different objects
in a row it’s a good idea to think of how many of the objects can go in the first
position, how many can go in the second and so on
For n = 2 there are two options for the first position and then there will only be one
object left to go in the second position so
To arrange the letters A and B we have
AB and BA
For n = 3 there are three options for the first position and then there will be
two objects for the second position and one left to go in the third position so
To arrange the letters A, B and C we have
ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB and CBA
For n objects there are n options for the first position, n − 1 options for the
second position and so on until there is only one object left to go in final
position
The number of ways of arranging different objects is
n × (n − 1) × (n − 2) × . . . × 2 × 1
What happens if the objects are not all different?

Consider arranging two identical objects, although there are still two different
ways you could place the objects down next to each other, the arrangements
would look exactly the same
To arrange the letters A1 and A2 we have
A1 A2 and A2 A1
These are exactly the same, so there is only one way to arrange the letters
A and A
To arrange the letters A1, A2 and C we have
A1 A2 C, A2 A1 C, A1 C A2, , A2 C A1, C A1 A2, C A2 A1
Although the two letter As were placed separately, they are identical and
so each pattern has been repeated twice
There are 6 ways to arrange the letters A, A and C, but with some
duplicates
There are 6 = 3 different ways to arrange the letters A, A and C
2
If there are two identical objects within a group of objects to be arranged, the
number of ways of arranging different objects should be divided by 2
Consider arranging three identical objects, although there are still six different
ways you could place the objects down next to each other, the arrangements
would look exactly the same
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To arrange the letters A1, A2 and A3 YOUR NOTES

A1 A2 A3 , A1 A3 A2 , A2 A1 A3 , A2 A3 A1 , A3 A1 A2 , A3 A2 A1 
However, if these were all A, we would have AAA repeated six times
To find the number of arrangements of the letters A, A, A and C we would have
to consider the number of ways of arranging four letters if they were all
different and then divide by the number of ways AAA is repeated
Four different letters could be arranged 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24 ways
AAA would be repeated six times so we would need to divide by 6
There are four different ways to arrange the letters A, A, A and C
If there are three identical objects within a group of n objects to be arranged, the
number of ways of arranging n different objects should be divided by 6
If there are r identical objects within a group of n objects to be arranged, the
number of ways of arranging n different objects should be divided by the number
of ways of arranging r different objects
If there are r identical objects within a group of n objects to be arranged, the
number of ways of arranging n the objects is n × (n − 1) × (n − 2) × . . . × 2 × 1
divided by r × (r − 1) × (r − 2) × . . . × 2 × 1
 Worked Example
By considering the number of options there are for each letter to go into
each position, find how many different arrangements there are of the letters
in the word REVISE.
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Factorials YOUR NOTES

What are factorials? 
Factorials are a type of mathematical operation (just like +, -, ×, ÷)
The symbol for factorial is !
So to take a factorial of any non-negative integer, n , it will be written n ! And
pronounced ‘ n factorial’
The factorial function for any integer, n , is n! = n × (n − 1) × (n − 2) × . . . × 2 × 1
For example, 5 factorial is 5! = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1
The factorial of a negative number is not defined
You cannot arrange a negative number of items
0! = 1
There are no positive integers less than zero, so zero items can only be
arranged once
Most normal calculators cannot handle numbers greater than about 70!,
experiment with yours to see the greatest value of x such that your calculator can
handle x !
How are factorials and arrangements linked?
The number of arrangements of n different objects is n !
Where n! = n × (n − 1) × (n − 2) × . . . × 2 × 1
The number of different arrangements of n objects with one object repeated r
times and the others all different is n!
r!
The number of different arrangements of n objects with one object repeated r
times, another object repeated s times and the other objects all different is rn!s!!
What are the key properties of using factorials?

Some important relationships to be aware of are:
n ! = n × (n − 1)!
Therefore
n!
=n
(n − 1)!
n ! = n × (n − 1) × (n − 2)!
Therefore
n!
= n × (n − 1)
(n − 2)!
Expressions with factorials in can be simplified by considering which values cancel

out in the fraction
Dividing a large factorial by a smaller one allows many values to cancel out
8! 8× 7× 6× 5× 4× 3× 2× 1
= = 8× 7× 6
5! 5× 4× 3× 2× 1
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Worked Example YOUR NOTES

 (i)

Show, by writing 8! and 5! in their full form and cancelling, that
8!
=8×7×6
5!
(ii)
n!
Hence, simplify
(n − 3)!
(iii)
The letters A, B, B, B, B, B, C and D are arranged in a row. How many
different ways are there to arrange the 8 letters in a row?
 ExamArrangements
Tip
and factorials are tightly interlinked with permutations
and combinations. Make sure you fully understand the concepts in this
revision note as they will be fundamental to answering perms and
combs exam questions.
Page 18 of 61
2.2.2 Permutations YOUR NOTES


Permutations
Are permutations and arrangements the same thing?
Mathematically speaking yes, a permutation is the number of possible
arrangements of a set of objects when the order of the arrangements matters
A permutation can either be finding the number of ways to arrange n items or
finding the number of ways to arrange r out of n items
By the reasoning given in the 2.2.1 Arrangements revision note, the number of
permutations of n different items is n! = n × (n − 1) × (n − 2) × . . . × 2 × 1
For 5 different items there are 5! = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 = 120 permutations
For 6 different items there are 6! = 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 = 720 permutations
It is easy to see how quickly the number of possible permutations of different
items can increase
For 10 different items there are 10! = 3 628 800 possible permutations
How do we handle permutations if there are repeated items?
Again, by the reasoning given in the 2.2.1 Arrangements revision note, the number
of permutations of n different items, with one of the items repeated r times, is
n!
= n × (n − 1) ) × . . . × (r + 1)
r!
The number of permutations of n different items, with one of the items repeated r
times and another repeated s times, is rn!s!!
This property will need to be applied to any permutation problem with one or more
item(s) repeated a number of times
How do we find r permutations of n items?
If we only want to find the number of ways to arrange a few out of n different
objects, we should consider how many of the objects can go in the first position,
how many can go in the second and so on
If we wanted to arrange 3 out of 5 different objects, then we would have 3
positions to place the objects in, but we would have 5 options for the first position,
4 for the second and 3 for the third
This would be 5 × 4 × 3 ways of permutating 3 out of 5 different objects
This is equivalent to 5! = 5!
2! (5 − 3)!
If we wanted to arrange 4 out of 10 different objects, then we would have 4
positions to place the objects in, but we would have 10 options for the first
position, 9 for the second, 8 for the third and 7 for the fourth
This would be 10 × 9 × 8 × 7 ways of permutating 4 out of 10 different
objects
This is equivalent to 10!
6!
=
10!
(10 − 4)!
If we wanted to arrange r out of n different objects, then we would have r positions
to place the objects in, but we would have n options for the first position, (n − 1) for
Page 19 of 61
the second, (n − 2) for the third and so on until we reach (n − (r − 1) ) YOUR NOTES
This would be n × (n − 1) × . . . × (n − r + 1) ways of permutating r out of n different 
objects
n!
This is equivalent to (n − r )!
n!
The function (n − r )! can be written as nPr
Make sure you can find and use this button on your calculator
The same function works if we have n spaces into which we want to arrange r
objects, consider
for example arranging five people into a row of ten empty chairs
Permutations when two or more items must be together
If two or more items must stay together within an arrangement, it is easiest to
think of these items as ‘stuck’ together
These items will become one within the arrangement
Arrange this ‘one’ item with the others as normal
Arrange the items within this ‘one’ item separately
Multiply these two arrangements together
Permutations when two or more items cannot be all together

If two items must be separated …
consider the number of ways these two items would be together
subtract this from the total number of arrangements without restrictions
If more than two items must be separated…
consider whether all of them must be completely separate (none can be next
to each other) or whether they cannot all be together (but two could still be
next to each other)
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If they cannot all be together then we can treat it the same way as separating YOUR NOTES
two items and subtract the number of ways they would all be together from 
the total number of permutations of the items, the final answer will include all
permutations where two items are still together
Permutations when two or more items must be separated

If the items must all be completely separate then
lay out the rest of the items in a line with a space in between each of them
where one of the items which cannot be together could go
remember that this could also include the space before the first and after
the last item
You would then be able to fit the items which cannot be together into any
of these spaces, using the r permutations of n items rule (n Pr)
You do not need to fill every space
Page 21 of 61
YOUR NOTES

Permutations when two or more items must be in specific places

Most commonly this would be arranging a word where specific letters would go in
the first and last place
Or arranging objects where specific items have to be at the ends/in the middle
Imagine these specific items are stuck in place, then you can find the number
of ways to arrange the rest of the items around these ‘stuck’ items
Sometimes the items must be grouped
For example all vowels must be before the consonants
Or all the red objects must be on one side and the blue objects must be on the
other
Find the number of permutations within each group separately and multiply
them together
Be careful to check whether the groups could be in either place
e.g. the vowels on one side and consonants on the other
or if they must be in specific places (the vowels before the consonants)
If the groups could be in either place than your answer would be multiplied by
two
If there were n groups that could be in any order then you’re answer would be
multiplied by n!
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 (a)

How many ways are there to rearrange the letters in the word BANANAS if
the B and the S must be at each end?
(b)
How many ways are there to rearrange the letters in the word ORANGES if
(i)
the three vowels (A, E and O) must be together?
(ii)
the three vowels must NOT all be together?
(iii)
the three vowels must all be separated?
(a)
How many ways are there to rearrange the letters in the word BANANAS if the B and
the S must be at each end?
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YOUR NOTES

(b)
How many ways are there to rearrange the letters in the word ORANGES if
(i)
the three vowels (A, E and O) must be together?
(ii)
the three vowels must NOT all be together?
(iii)
the three vowels must all be separated?
Page 24 of 61
YOUR NOTES

 ExamTheTip
wording is very important in permutations questions, just one word
can change how you answer the question.
Look out for specific details such as whether three items must all be
separated or just cannot be all together (there is a difference).
Pay attention to whether items must be in alternating order (e.g. red and
blue items must alternate, either RBRB… or BRBR…) or whether a
particular item must come first (red then blue and so on).
If items should be at the ends, look out for whether they can be at either
end or whether one must be at the beginning and the other at the end.
Page 25 of 61
2.2.3 Combinations YOUR NOTES


Combinations
What is the difference between permutations and combinations?
A combination is the number of possible arrangements of a set of objects when
the order of the arrangements does not matter
On the other hand a permutation is when the order of arrangement does
matter
A combination will be finding the number of ways to choose r out of n items
The order in which the r items are chosen is not important
For example if we are choosing two letters from the word CAB, AB and BA
would be considered the same combination but different permutations
How do we find r combinations of n items?
If we want to find the number of ways to choose 2 out of 3 different objects, but we
don’t mind the order in which they are chosen, then we could find the number of
permutations of 2 items from 3 and then divide by the number of ways of
arranging each combination
For example if we want to choose 2 letters from A, B and C
There are 6 permutations of 2 letters:
AB, BA, AC, CA, BC, CB
For each combination of 2 letters there are 2 (2 × 1) ways of arranging
them
(for example, AB and BA)
So divide the total number of permutations (6) by the number of ways of
arranging each combination (2) to get 3 combinations
If we want to find the number of ways to choose 3 out of 5 different objects, but we
don’t mind the order in which they are chosen, then we could find the number of
permutations of 3 items from 5 and then divide by the number of ways of
arranging each combination
For example if we want to choose 3 letters from A, B, C, D and E
There are 60 permutations of 3 letters:
ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA, ABD, ADB, etc
For each combination of 3 letters there are 6 (3 × 2 ×1) ways of arranging
them (for example, ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB and CBA)
So divide the total number of permutations (60) by the number of ways of
arranging each combination (6 which is 3!) to get 10 combinations
If we want to find the number of ways to choose r items out of n different objects,
but we don’t mind the order in which they are chosen, then we could find the
number of permutations of r items from n and then divide by the number of ways
of arranging each combination
n!
Recall that the formula for r permutations of n items is nP r = (n − r )!
Page 26 of 61
This would include r ! ways of repeating each combination YOUR NOTES

nP
r n! 
The formula for r combinations of n items is r!
=
(n − r )!r !
⎛ ⎞
The function n!
can be written as nC r or ⎜⎜⎜ n ⎟⎟⎟ and is often read as ‘n choose
(n − r )!r ! ⎝r ⎠
r’
Make sure you can find and use the nC r button on your calculator
The formulae for permutations and combinations satisfy the following
relationship:
nP
nC = r
r r!
What do I need to know about combinations?

n!
The formula nC r = (n − r )!r !
is also known as a binomial coefficient
nC = nC = 1
n 0
It is easy to see that there is only one way of arranging n objects out of n and
also there can only be one way of arranging 0 objects out of n
By considering the formula for this, it reinforces the fact that 0! Must equal 1
The binomial coefficients are symmetrical, so nC r = nC n − r
This can be seen by considering the formula for nC r
nC n! n!
= = = nC
n −r (n − r )!(n − (n − r ))! r !(n − r )! r
How do I know when to multiply of add?

Many questions will ask you to find combinations of a group of different items
from a bigger group of a specified number of those different items
For example, find the number of ways five questions could be chosen from a
bank of twenty different pure and ten different statistics questions
The hint in this example is the word 'chosen', this tells you that the order in
which the questions are chosen doesn't matter
Sometimes questions will have restrictions,
For example there should be three pure and two statistics chosen from the
bank of questions,
Or there must be at least two pure questions within the group
If unsure about whether to add or multiply your options, ask yourself if A and B are
both needed, or if A or B is needed
Always multiply if the answer is and, and add if the answer is or
For example if we needed exactly three pure and two statistics questions we
would find the amount of each and multiply them
If we could have either five statistics or five pure questions we would find them
separately and add the answers
Page 27 of 61
Probabilities can be found with combinations questions by finding the number of YOUR NOTES
options a selection can be made in a particular way and dividing that by the total 
number of options
How do we handle combinations if some of the objects are identical?
Sometimes you will be asked to find the number of ways r items can be chosen
from n items when some of the items are identical
You must consider the identical items separately
For example, if you wanted to choose 4 letters from the word CHOOSE you would
have to consider all the options with zero Os, one O and two Os separately
 Worked Example
Oscar has to choose four books from a reading list to take home over the
summer. There are four fantasy books, five historical fiction books and two
classics available for him to choose from. In how many ways can Oscar
choose four books if he decides to have:
(i)
two fantasy books and two historical fictions?
(ii)
at least one of each type of book?
(iii)
at least two fantasy books?
Page 28 of 61
YOUR NOTES

Page 29 of 61
YOUR NOTES

 ExamIt isTip
really important that you can tell whether a question is about
permutations or combinations. Look out for key words such as arrange
(for permutations) or choose or select (for combinations). Don’t be
confused if a question asks for the number of ways, this could be for
either a permutations or a combinations question. Look out for other
clues.
Page 30 of 61
2.3 Further Probability YOUR NOTES


2.3.1 Set Notation & Conditional Probability
Set Notation
What is set notation?
Set notation is a formal way of writing groups of numbers (or other mathematical
entities such as shapes) that share a common feature – each number in a set is
called an element of the set
You should have come across common sets of numbers such as the natural
numbers, denoted by ℕ , or the set of real numbers, denoted by ℝ
In probability, set notation allows us to talk about the sample space and events
within in it
ℰ , S, U and ξ are common symbols used for the Universal set
In probability this is the entire sample space
Events are denoted by capital letters, A, B, C etc
A' is called the complement of and means “not A”
(Strictly pronounced “ A prime” but often called “A dash”)
Recall the important and easily missed result P ( A ') = 1 − P ( A )
AND is denoted by ∩ (intersection)
OR is denoted by ∪ (union) (remember A ∪ B includes both)
The other set you may come across in probability is the empty set
The empty set has no elements and is denoted by ∅
The intersection of mutually exclusive events is the empty set,
Set notation allows us to write probability results formally
For independent events: P(A ∩ B) = P(A ) × P( B)
For mutually exclusive events: P(A ∪ B) = P(A ) + P( B)
How do I solve problems given in set notation?
Recognise the notation and symbols used and then interpret them in terms of AND
( ∩ ), OR ( ∪ ) and/or NOT (‘) statements
Venn diagrams lend themselves particularly well to deducing which sets or parts of
sets are involved- draw mini-Venn diagrams and shade them
Page 31 of 61
YOUR NOTES

Practice shading various parts of Venn diagrams and then writing what you have
shaded in set notation
With combinations of union, intersection and complement there may be more than
one way to write the set required
e.g. (A ∪ B )' = A ' ∩ B '
(A ∪ B )' = A ' ∪ B '
Not convinced? Sketch a Venn diagram and shade it in!
In such questions it can be the unshaded part that represents the solution
Page 32 of 61

 The members of a local tennis club can decide whether to play in a singles

competition, a doubles competition, both or neither.
Once all members have made their choice the chairman of the club selects,
at random, one member to interview about their decision.
S is the event a member selected the singles competition.
D is the event a member selected the doubles competition.
Given that P( S) = 2P(D ) , P ( S ∪ D ) = 0 . 9 and P ( S ∩ D ) = 0 . 3 , find

(i) P( S')
(ii) P( S' ∩ D )
(iii) P ( S ∪ D ')
(iv) P (( S ∪ D )')
Page 33 of 61
YOUR NOTES

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YOUR NOTES

Page 35 of 61
YOUR NOTES
 ExamVennTipdiagrams are not expected but they are extremely useful 
Do not try to do everything on one diagram though - use mini-Venn
diagrams with shading (no values) for each part of a question
Do double check whether you are dealing with union ( ∪ ) or intersection
( ∩ ) (or both) – when these symbols are used several times near each
other in a question, it is easy to get them muddled up or misread them
Page 36 of 61
Conditional Probability YOUR NOTES

What is conditional probability? 
You have already been using conditional probability in Tree Diagrams
Probabilities change depending on the outcome of a prior event
Consider the following example

e.g. Bag with 6 white and 3 red buttons. One is drawn at random and not
replaced. A second button is drawn. The probability that the second button is
5
white given that the first button is white is 8 .
The key phrase here is “given that” – it essentially means something has already
happened.
In set notation, “given that” is indicated by a vertical line ( | ) so the above
example would be written P(2nd is white 1st is white) = 58
There are other phrases that imply or mean the same things as “given that”
Tree diagrams are great for events that follow on from one another
Otherwise Venn diagrams are extremely useful
Beware! The denominator of fractional probabilities will no longer be the
total of all the frequencies or probabilities shown
“given that” questions usually reduce the sample space as an event (a
subset of the outcomes of the first experiment) has already occurred
Page 37 of 61
The diagrams above also show two more conditional probability results YOUR NOTES
P (A ∩ B ) = P (A ) × P (B | A )

P (A ∩ B ) = P (B ) × P (A |B )
(These are essentially the same as letters are interchangeable)

For independent events we know P (A ∩ B ) = P (A ) × P (B ) so
P(A ) × P(B )
P(B | A ) = = P(B )
P(A )
and similarly
P (A |B ) = P (A )
The independent result should make sense logically – if events A and B are
independent then the fact that event B has already occurred has no effect on the
probability of event A happening
 Worked Example
The probabilities of two events, A and B are described as P(A ) = 0 . 4 and
P( B) = 0 . 5 .
It is also known that P (A ∩ B) = 0 . 2 .
(a)
Find
(i)
P (A | B )
(ii)
P ( B | A ')
(iii)
P (A ∩ B ) (A ∪ B )
(b)
Show, in two different ways, that the events A and B are independent.
Page 38 of 61
YOUR NOTES

 ExamThere
Tip
are now several symbols used from set notation in probability –
make sure you are familiar with them
union ( ∪ )
intersection ( ∩ )
not (‘)
given that ( | )
Use Venn diagrams to help deduce missing probabilities in questions –
you may find it easier to work these out first before answering questions
directly
Page 39 of 61
Two-Way Tables YOUR NOTES

What are two-way tables? 
In probability, two-way tables list the frequencies for the outcomes of two events
– one event along the top (columns), one event down the side (rows)
The frequencies, along with a “Total” row and “Total” column instantly show the
values involved in finding probabilities
How do I solve problems given involving two-way tables?

Questions will usually be wordy – and may not even mention two-way tables
Questions will need to be interpreted in terms of AND ( ∩ , intersection), OR (
∪ , union), NOT (‘) and GIVEN THAT ( | )
Complete as much of the table as possible from the information given in the
question
If any empty cells remain, see if they can be calculated by looking for a row or
column with just one missing value
Each cell in the table is similar to a region in a Venn diagram
With event A outcomes on columns and event B outcomes on rows
P ∩ Q (intersection, AND) will be the cell where outcome meets outcome Q
P ∪ Q (union, OR) will be all the cells for outcomes P and Q including the
cell for both
Beware! As union includes the cell for both outcomes, avoid counting this cell
twice when calculating frequencies or probabilities
Page 40 of 61
(see Worked Example Q(b)(ii)) YOUR NOTES

You may need to use the results 
P (A ∩ B ) = P (A ) × P (B | A )
P (A |B ) = P (A ) (for independent events)
 Worked Example
The incomplete two-way table below shows the type of main meal provided
by 80 owners to their cat(s) or dog(s).
Dry Food Wet Food Raw Total

Food
Dog 11 8
Cat 19 33
Total 21
(a)
Complete the two-way table
(b)
One of the 80 owners is selected at random.
Find the probability
(i)
the selected owner has a cat and feeds it raw food for its main meal.
(ii)
the selected owner has a dog or feeds it wet food for its main meal.
(iii)
the owner feeds raw food to its pet, given it is a dog.
(iv)
the owner has a cat, given that they feed it dry food.
Page 41 of 61
YOUR NOTES

 ExamEnsure
Tip
any table – given or drawn - has a “Total” row and a “Total”
column
Do not confuse a two-way table with a sample space diagram – a two-
way table does not necessarily display all outcomes from an
experiment, just those (events) we are interested in
Page 42 of 61
2.3.2 Further Tree Diagrams YOUR NOTES


Further Tree Diagrams
What do you mean by further tree diagrams?
The tree diagrams used here are no more complicated than those in the first Tree
Diagrams revision note, however
questions may use set notation as well, or alongside contextual questions ∪
(union), ∩ (intersection) , ‘ (complement), | ("given that")
more detailed use of conditional probability
three events for each experiment and three experiments could be used
How do I solve conditional probability problems using tree diagrams?

Interpreting questions in terms of AND ( ∩ ), OR ( ∪ ), complement ( ‘ ) and “given
that” ( | )
Condition probability may now be involved too
This makes it harder to know where to start and how to complete the probabilities
on a tree diagram
e.g. If given, possibly in words, P (B | A ) then event A has already occurred so
start by looking for the branch event A in the 1st experiment, and then P(B |
A) would be the branch for event B in the 2nd experiment
Similarly, P (B | A ') would require starting with event “ not A ” in the 1st
experiment and event B in the 2 nd experiment
Page 43 of 61
YOUR NOTES

The diagram above gives rise to some probability formulae you will see in
Probability Formulae
P ( B | A ) (“given that”) is the probability on the branch of the 2nd experiment
However, the “given that” statement P ( A | B ) is more complicated and a matter of
working backwards
P (A ∩ B )
from Conditional Probability, P (A |B ) = P (B )
from the diagram above, P (B ) = P (A ∩ B ) + P (A ' ∩ B )
∩ B)
leading to P (A | B ) = P (A ∩PB)(A+P (A' ∩ B)
This is quite a complicated looking formula to try to remember so use the
logical steps instead – and a clearly labelled tree diagram!
 Worked Example
The event F has a 75% probability of occurring.
The event W follows event F , and if event F has occurred, event W has an
80% chance of occurring.
It is also known that P ( F' ∩ W ) = 0 . 15 .
Find
(i)
P(W | F')
(ii)
P( F | W ')
(iii)
the probability that event F didn’t occur, given that event W didn’t occur.
Page 44 of 61
YOUR NOTES

 ExamBe Tip
wary of assuming that “given that” statements will always be
referring to something on the second set of branches (2nd experiment),
they can work the other way!
Page 45 of 61
2.3.3 Further Venn Diagrams YOUR NOTES


Further Venn Diagrams
What do you mean by further Venn diagrams?
The Venn diagrams used here are no more complicated than those in the first Venn
Diagrams revision note, however
questions may use set notation as well, or alongside contextual questions
there may be more detailed use of conditional probability
mutually exclusive, three events and other unusual Venn diagram setups may
be involved
How do I solve conditional probability problems using Venn diagrams?

Interpreting questions in terms of AND ( ∪ ), OR ( ∩ ), complement ( ‘ ) and
“given that” ( | )
Use mini-Venn diagrams to sketch and shade the regions you are dealing with –
use different colours if available or different styles of shading if not
Shading can help you see the answer
P(A ∩ B )
since P(A |B ) = P(B )
shade B first, then shade A ∩ B
" double shading "
the answer will then be
" single shading "
Page 46 of 61
YOUR NOTES

 Worked Example
Three events, A , B and C are such that
events A and C are mutually exclusive
P(A ∩ B) = 0 . 2
P( B ∩ C) = 0 . 3
P((A ∪ B ∪ C)') = 0 . 1
P( B) = 0 . 7
P(A ') = 0 . 75.
Find
(i)
P(A | B)
(ii)
P(A ' | C')
(iii)
P( C | (A ∪ B)')
Page 47 of 61
YOUR NOTES

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YOUR NOTES
 ExamAlthough
Tip
very versatile, Venn diagrams may not always be the best 
option
use a tree diagram if one event follows another
e.g. two beads drawn from a bag without replacement
use a two-way table for showing how many items/people are in
associated categories
e.g. A school year group split by gender selecting which sport they
wish to play
Page 49 of 61
2.3.4 Probability Formulae YOUR NOTES


Probability Formulae
What is meant by probability formulae?
If you have seen any of the other Revision Notes on probability, almost every one
contains a formula
These however are often disguised in Venn diagrams, tree diagrams etc
Sometimes a diagram can be easier to use than a formula
This Revision Note rounds up all these formulae and introduces one or two new
ones
You are not expected to use these formulae and none are given in the formulae
booklet but they can help solve problems
What probability formulae are there?
Some formulae only apply under certain conditions
The formulae for probability you should’ve encountered so far
for independent events, P (A ∩ B ) = P (A ) × P (B ) (“AND”, intersection)
for mutually exclusive events, P (A ∪ B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) (“OR”, union)
P (A ') = 1 − P (A ) (“NOT”, complement/prime/dash)
P (A ∩ B )
P (A |B ) =
P (B )
or P(A ∩ B ) = P(B ) × P(A |B )
(“GIVEN THAT”)
This second version in particular is referred to as the
MULTIPLICATION FORMULA (see diagram below)
For independent events, P (A |B ) = P (A )
Page 50 of 61
YOUR NOTES

The addition formula can be rearranged in two very similar ways so be careful
P (A ∪ B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) − P (A ∩ B ) and
P (A ∩ B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) − P (A ∪ B )
The special case is when A and B are mutually exclusive; in such cases then
Page 51 of 61
P (A ∩ B ) = 0 and so P (A ∪ B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) YOUR NOTES

How do I solve problems using probability formulae? 
This is a combination of
Recognising the set notation used
Taking note of any independent or mutually exclusive events
Using an appropriate diagram (Venn, mini-Venn, tree, two-way table)
Converting worded questions into AND, OR, GIVEN THAT etc statements
Knowing when a formula could be used
In the majority of cases a diagram can be used – so if you do not like using the
formulae or find them confusing
For events that happen in succession, use a tree diagram; Venn diagrams suit
most other purposes but two-way tables can be easier to follow
 Worked Example
In the fictional World Stare Out Championships players compete by staring
at each other with the player blinking first losing. A match cannot be
drawn.
During each day of the championships three matches are scheduled to take
place but if the first two matches both take more than an hour each, then
the third match cannot take place that day.
A statistician notices from past fictional championship records that the
probability of the first match taking longer than an hour is 0.15 and that the
probability of only two matches taking place on any day is 0.06. They also
notice that the probability that at least one of the first two matches takes
longer than an hour is 0.32.
Find the probability that
(i)
the second match of a day takes longer than an hour to complete
(ii)
the first match takes longer than an hour given that the second match takes
longer than an hour
Page 52 of 61
YOUR NOTES

 ExamIf inTip
any doubt always start with a diagram
a Venn diagram can be used for most problems
a two-way table can be easier to read if it’s possible to construct
one
a tree diagram is useful if you are looking at an event that follows
another
Remember that all probability formulae are given in the formulae
booklet but not necessarily in the most user-friendly way; a quick look
could just be enough to jog your memory though!
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2.1 Basic Probability YOUR NOTES

An event is an outcome or a collection of outcomes; it is what we are

P (X ≤ 4) = 0 . 4 “the probability of being less than four is 0.4” YOUR NOTES

Independent & Mutually Exclusive Events YOUR NOTES

Independent events could refer to events from different experiments

2.1.2 Venn Diagrams YOUR NOTES

What do the different regions and bubbles overlapping mean on a Venn

2.1.3 Tree Diagrams YOUR NOTES

How do I draw and label a tree diagram?

How do I solve probability problems involving tree diagrams?

Draw, or complete a given, tree diagram YOUR NOTES

2.2 Permutations & Combinations YOUR NOTES

What happens if the objects are not all different?

To arrange the letters A1, A2 and A3 YOUR NOTES

Factorials YOUR NOTES

What are the key properties of using factorials?

Expressions with factorials in can be simplified by considering which values cancel

Worked Example YOUR NOTES

2.2.2 Permutations YOUR NOTES

Permutations when two or more items cannot be all together

Permutations when two or more items must be separated

Permutations when two or more items must be in specific places

Worked Example YOUR NOTES

2.2.3 Combinations YOUR NOTES

This would include r ! ways of repeating each combination YOUR NOTES

What do I need to know about combinations?

How do I know when to multiply of add?

2.3 Further Probability YOUR NOTES

Worked Example YOUR NOTES

Given that P( S) = 2P(D ) , P ( S ∪ D ) = 0 . 9 and P ( S ∩ D ) = 0 . 3 , find

Conditional Probability YOUR NOTES

Consider the following example

(These are essentially the same as letters are interchangeable)

Two-Way Tables YOUR NOTES

How do I solve problems given involving two-way tables?

(see Worked Example Q(b)(ii)) YOUR NOTES

Dry Food Wet Food Raw Total

2.3.2 Further Tree Diagrams YOUR NOTES

How do I solve conditional probability problems using tree diagrams?

2.3.3 Further Venn Diagrams YOUR NOTES

How do I solve conditional probability problems using Venn diagrams?

2.3.4 Probability Formulae YOUR NOTES

P (A ∩ B ) = 0 and so P (A ∪ B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) YOUR NOTES

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