Travel Behaviour and Society 18 (2020) 29–36

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Travel Behaviour and Society

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tbs

A panel analysis of the effect of the urban environment on the T

spatiotemporal pattern of taxi demand
⁎
Qian Liua, Chuan Dingb,c, , Peng Chend
a
School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
b
School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beijing Key Laboratory for Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure System and Safety Control, Beihang University, Beijing,
China
c
Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data and Brain Computing, Beihang University, Beijing, China
d
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, School of Public Affairs, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, United States

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Taxis are an indispensable part of the public transportation system; however, the industry is confronting many
Taxi demand challenges, such as the development of mobile apps for reservations and the increase in large-scale ridesharing.
Temporal factors Taxi demand is impacted by many spatial and temporal factors, such as the location, the built environment, the
Built environment time of day. This study analyzes various factors associated with temporal and spatial densities of taxi pick-up
Generalized additive mixed model
locations using a generalized additive mixed model. The key findings are as follows: (1) taxi demand is higher in
densely developed areas, which are characterized by high degrees of mixed land use, high population densities,
dense road junctions, and high percentages of residential, commercial and public space; (2) taxi demand is
higher in areas with denser secondary roads; (3) taxi demand is lower in areas with more bus stops; (4) taxi
demand is higher during weekdays, peak hours, and warmer days (autumn season); and (5) despite taxi demand
being positively associated with the rainy season, this relationship has strong nonlinearity. To optimize the
efficiency of taxi system, there should be more loading spaces for taxis in activity-concentrated areas, which are
characterized by a higher population density, high levels of mixed land use and dense road junctions. In ad-
dition, taxi drivers should search for passengers in underserved areas to reach potential passengers during
nonpeak hours. Future research may use data recorded via mobile apps to examine taxi overtime waiting, re-
jection of service and prepaid empty trips to provide a complete image of taxi demand.

1. Introduction
Taxis provide services with non-fixed schedules, non-fixed routes
and non-fixed stops. Taxis provide passengers with a point-to-point, fast
and flexible service that acts as a disincentive to private car ownership,
freeing up parking space. Taxis are a convenient mode of transport
through cities, especially in areas lacking in rail and bus services. In
many cases, taxis are also the more energy-efficient option for suburban
transit (Zou et al., 2016). In the existing literature, taxi demand has not
been adequately investigated, perhaps due to the following two rea-
sons. On the one hand, in the United States, Canada, and Australia,
private cars are affordable for most households, and the demand for
taxis is low (Conway et al., 2018). On the other hand, it is difficult to
obtain large-scale taxi GPS trace data, leading to a dearth of research in
the prior literature on the role of taxis. Under such circumstances, there
has been less focus on the connection between taxi demand and the
urban environment, although the impact of land use on travel behavior
has been the subject of considerable research attention in recent dec-
ades (Ding et al., 2018; Ding and Cao, 2019).
In China, due to the relatively low labor cost of drivers, taxis are
more affordable than they are in developed countries. Taxi demand in
China shows continual growth, dependent on the increment of in-
dividual disposable incomes and increasing travel demand over time.
According to the official statistics, the number of taxis in China’s cities
grew from 969,000 in 2008 to 1,388,900 in 2018 (Statista, 2018),
where informal taxis1 were not counted. Historical data shows that
there were 66,000 urban taxis in Beijing in 2013, generating 1.81
million trips per day. Conversely, with the development of app-based

⁎
Corresponding author at: School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beijing Key Laboratory for Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure System and Safety
Control, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
E-mail address: cding@buaa.edu.cn (C. Ding).
1
Informal taxis in this paper refer to taxicabs and other for-hire vehicles that are not duly licensed or permitted by the jurisdiction in which they operate. In China,
these vehicles are generally called black taxis or black cars.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2019.09.003
Received 19 April 2019; Received in revised form 23 September 2019; Accepted 25 September 2019
Available online 04 October 2019
2214-367X/ © 2019 Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Q. Liu, et al.
ridesharing (Didi and Meituan, similar to Uber and Lyft), taxi demand is
expected to decline. The future demand for taxis is uncertain. Onboard
taxi GPS devices provide tracking information at one-second intervals,
which has motivated the academic exploration of urban taxi demand.
The oversupply of taxis is likely to congest road traffic; however, the
undersupply is likely to encourage the use of informal taxis and private
cars. Developing models to predict taxi demand is crucial for improving
road traffic efficiency and ensuring the quality of taxi services.
Therefore, it is important to examine spatial and temporal factors as-
sociated with taxi pick-up locations and to forecast future needs. Most
of the existing research has examined factors related to the travel de-
mands of private cars, transit, and pedestrians and cyclists, while an
inadequate effort has been made to investigate factors related to taxi
demand (Qian and Ukkusuri, 2015). The development of vehicle-loaded
GPS tracking devices has greatly enriched the available taxi data and
provides the basis for deepening our understanding of taxi demand,
spatially and temporally (Gonzales et al., 2014; Qian and Ukkusuri,
2015; Veloso et al., 2011).
With the abovementioned facts, this study investigates temporal and
spatial factors correlated with the pick-up locations of taxis in a densely
developed urban environment. The results serve to improve the op-
erational efficiency of taxis in the road environment, as well as to re-
duce overall searching for passengers. Section 2 of the paper reviews
prior studies focusing on taxi demand. Section 3 introduces the research
design, including the study area (the central area of Beijing), the
methodology (generalized additive mixed model) and the model spe-
cification (variable selection). Section 4 presents the modeling results.
Section 5 concludes with findings and discusses planning strategies and
policies that could be helpful in managing taxis in the real world.
2. Literature review
There are two lines of research in the prior literature. One approach
uses machine learning algorithms (Shao et al., 2015; Yang et al., 2002),
while the other approach employs statistical models (Qian and
Ukkusuri, 2015; Schaller, 2005) for taxi demand forecasting. Regarding
machine learning algorithms, one study has compared the prediction
accuracy using the Markov predictor versus the Neural Network pre-
dictor. The results suggest that the Markov predictor is the preferred
methodology for forecasting taxi demand (Zhao et al., 2016). Un-
certainty analysis has also been introduced to forecast taxi demand,
specifically to account for the uncertainty of demand and seek taxi
dispatching solutions. Similarly, an autoregressive integrated moving
average (ARIMA) model has also been used to forecast the spatial dis-
tribution of taxi passengers (Moreira-Matias et al., 2013). As the most
commonly used time-series model in traffic volume prediction, ARIMA
forecasts future scenarios of taxi demand based on prior observed data.
Spatial clustering approaches have also been applied in taxi demand
research. Through identifying the hot-spots of pick-up locations, these
studies seek to solve multiple research questions. First, how should an
urban area be divided into pick-up zones? Second, what are the best
locations for drivers to pick up their next passengers (Chang et al.,
2009)? The advantage of these studies is that they provide re-
commendations for both taxi passengers and drivers to facilitate rides at
an individual level. These analyses both provide prediction outcomes,
which can inform instant road traffic conditions, and help match supply
and demand; however, they lack any interpretation of the effect of
significant factors and therefore cannot assist policy making.
Probabilistic models have also been frequently used for taxi demand
analysis. For example, Liu et al. (2012; 2015) have characterized tem-
poral variations of land use based on taxi pick-up and drop-off loca-
tions. However, one important assumption of the regression method is
that each sample is independent across the study area. Taxi ridership in
one area is observed to be highly related to ridership in neighboring
areas (Qian and Ukkusuri, 2015). This spatial dependence should not be
ignored while modeling taxi ridership. To account for the spatial
30
Travel Behaviour and Society 18 (2020) 29–36
heterogeneity, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model has
been applied to capture local environmental variations in taxi demand
(Qian and Ukkusuri, 2015). A thorough investigation of the relevant
literature in this field yielded a single study related to this work, which
is that by Qian and Ukkusuri (2015). Using the GWR modeling ap-
proach, the researchers modeled the spatial heterogeneity of the taxi
ridership at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) scale using New York City’s
taxi GPS data, confirming that the spatial relationship of geographical
taxi data should be considered.
Beyond improving the spatial resolution of the local environment,
the conceptual framework in modeling taxi demand has been extended
by including various temporal factors; however, the variation in taxi
demand at various times of the day and different days of a week
(weekdays, weekends and special event days) has not been thoroughly
examined. A prior study has shown how taxi demand fluctuates over
different hours on rainy days. Taxi drivers make more frequent and
shorter trips when there is rain; however, drivers end their shift earlier
during prolonged rain (Kamga et al., 2013), while the effect of snow on
taxi demand is insignificant (Kamga et al., 2013). In addition to
weather, the significance of the variation in demand between weekdays
and weekends has also been detailed in prior studies (Zhao et al., 2016).
Given the popularity of mobile phones, GPS devices, and Internet-based
map services, there is real-time spatiotemporal data that is currently
available to capture the spatiotemporal pattern of taxi demand. The
spatiotemporal data (e.g., vehicle GPS data) has become increasingly
important and has far-reaching implications. For example, these data
can be used to discover the evolutionary process of movements, un-
cover movement patterns, and predict travel demand.
Regarding socio-demographic factors, income is positively corre-
lated with taxi ridership in New York City (Qian and Ukkusuri, 2015;
Yang and Gonzales, 2014). In addition, taxi demand is greater in areas
where population and employment densities are higher, as well as in
neighborhoods where people are better educated (Yang and Gonzales,
2014). Using data from 118 US cities, one study has identified three
factors significantly correlated with taxi demand, including the number
of workers commuting by subway, the number of households without
private cars, and the number of airport trips (Schaller, 2005). Private
cars are affordable to residents in the US, Canada and Australia, and the
demand for taxis is lower in low-density cities. For comparison, in
densely developed Asian cities, taxi demand and urban structure are
closely linked; however this link remains inadequately examined (Liu
et al., 2015). Regarding the relationship between alternative transpor-
tation modes, public transport has a complementary role to taxis, and
transit access time is positively associated with the demand for taxis
(Yang and Gonzales, 2014).
In summary, the effects of temporal and spatial factors on taxi de-
mand have been noted in prior studies; however, they have primarily
been separately modeled. In addition, urban structure, regarding land
use and road networks, has not been split into independent variables
when correlated with taxi demand. Furthermore, the scale, the access to
taxis, and the cost of taxis vary significantly throughout the world. It is
important to analyze taxi demand in dense Asian cities to inform lo-
calized policies, optimize the efficiency of taxi systems, and provide
references for other densely developed cities.
3. Research Design
3.1. Study area and dependent variable
It is well known that Beijing is a large city with jobs concentrated in
its central area (Ma et al., 2018). In this study, the central area of the
Beijing has been selected as the study area to examine factors impacting
the taxi demand. It is worth noting that although a large number of
studies have investigated the relationship between land use and trans-
portation in developed countries, such research may not be adequately
relevant to dense Asian cities because of the difference norms, habits
Q. Liu, et al.
Fig. 1. Distribution of daily taxi counts (a) and density (b) in the Beijing central area.
and cultures.
As a popular kind of spatiotemporal data that relates to both space
and time, taxi trace GPS data, which is from the Department of
Transportation in Beijing, is used in this study to obtain the taxi de-
mand. Mobility managers embed GPS in taxis to better monitor and
guide vehicles. The real-time trajectory and state of each taxi is col-
lected. The dependent variable of this study is the daily density of taxi
counts (aggregated pick-ups), defined as taxi counts divided by the total
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Travel Behaviour and Society 18 (2020) 29–36
length of road segments in each traffic analysis zone (TAZ). Specifically,
the taxi counts are extracted from the taxi trace GPS data from October
2012. First, GPS data were screened to extract the trajectory of changes
in taxi status, from empty (status = 0) to occupied (status = 1). The
point of change is where the taxi pick-up locations are defined with
geographical coordinates. Second, taxi pick-up locations were matched
to the TAZ map. Finally, all pick-up locations were aggregated into the
corresponding TAZ per hour per day. As shown in Fig. 1, despite greater
Q. Liu, et al. Travel Behaviour and Society 18 (2020) 29–36

Table 1
Description and data summary of independent variables.
Category Variable Description Mean S.D. Min. Max.

3 2
Density Population density Population density (10 person/km ) 0.01 0.01 0 0.03
Land use Residential The percent of residential land (%) 0.24 0.17 0 0.97
Commercial The percent of commercial land (%) 0.07 0.08 0 0.54
Public space The percent of public spaces (%) 0.21 0.19 0 0.96
Mixed land use The entropy of five types of land use, including commercial, residential, public space, 0.67 0.17 0.07 0.98
transport and industrial, ranging from 0 to 1
Road design Primary road density The sum length of primary roads (road width = 130 m) divided by the area of the 0.58 0.99 0 8.94
corresponding TAZ (km/km2)
Secondary road density The sum length of secondary roads (road width = 55 m) divided by the area of the 6.77 3.41 0 25.08
corresponding TAZ (km/km2)
Tertiary road density The sum length of tertiary roads (road width = 30 m) divided by the area of the 4.04 2.64 0 14.99
corresponding TAZ (km/km2)
Junction density The number of junctions divided by the area of the corresponding TAZ (counts/km2) 5.92 1.95 0 11.42
Density of metro stations The density of metro stations (counts/km2) 0.02 0.04 0 0.29
Density of bus stops The density of bus stops (counts/km2) 1.38 1.25 0 8.74
Time-varying variables Peak hour If taxi trips are counted during peak hours, 1, otherwise 0 0.23 / 0 1
Weekends or special If taxis are counted during weekends or special event days, 1, otherwise 0 0.26 / 0 1
events
Rainfall If there is rain, 1, otherwise 0 0.13 / 0 1
Temperature Average ground temperature (°C) 14.48 3.50 7.5 20

taxi counts observed in certain periphery TAZs, taxi count density de-
clines from the core to the outside area in the Beijing central area.
3.2. Independent variables
Four categories of independent variables are considered in this
study, including density, land use, road design factors and a set of time-
varying variables, as shown in Table 1. Among various land use fea-
tures, percentages of residential land, commercial land, public space
and mixed land use (MLU) are selected to measure land use features.
For roadway design, the densities of bus stops, metro stations, different
types of streets and number of road junctions are selected. Time-varying
variables considered are the time of day (peak hour or not) and the day
of the week (weekday versus weekend or special event days) in the
research design. Table 1 describes how each variable is quantified and
presents the data summary.
3.3. Modeling approach
Taxi count fluctuates with various time-varying factors, such as the
weather, the time of day, and the day of the week, as shown in Fig. 2.
Simple generalized linear models (Poisson) cannot capture the periodic
features of taxi counts, which violates the assumptions of independence
and normality. In other words, the model developed for taxi counts
should address the concerns of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation.
In this study, a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM), which is a
semi-parametric statistical approach, is employed to address the
abovementioned issues by assuming that taxi counts follow a Poisson
distribution, as shown in Eqs. (1) and (2). This GAMM is a panel model,
which accounts for temporal dependence by capturing the interaction
effects between a time metric and various time-varying variables, noted
L
as∑l = 1 Xil *fil (Time ) in Eq. (2). This GAMM applies a nonparametric ad-
ditive function to model covariate effects using a polynomial spline
estimation, which is an embedded item used for modeling nonlinear
relationships. Furthermore, this GAMM can account for unobserved
heterogeneity and address data over-dispersion by including random
effects. This model is estimated with the R ‘mgcv’ package (Wood and
Wood, 2007).
This study includes the total length of roads as the exposure, Ei, to
adjust the variation of taxi counts in different TAZs. Eq. (1) shows how
the travel demand of each TAZ is adjusted in the Poisson-GAMM, and
Eq. (2) expresses the log-link function of taxi count density (Yi/Ei). The
nonparametric functions are characterized by smoothing splines and
are jointly estimated by maximizing the marginal quasi-likelihood (Lin
and Zhang, 1999).
Yi |θiε ~Poisson (Ei θiε ) (1)
K L
log(θiε ) = β0 + ∑ βik Xik + ∑ Xil × fil (Time) + ε
k=1 l=1 (2)

Fig. 2. Taxi counts in the Beijing central area, October 2012.

32
Q. Liu, et al. Travel Behaviour and Society 18 (2020) 29–36

where Yi is a vector of hourly aggregated taxi counts in TAZ i over
different moments; Ei is the total length of roads in TAZ i; and Time
refers to a vector of 744 × 1 along the time metric over the month. θiε is
a vector of mean taxi counts adjusted by Ei in TAZ i; β0 is the overall
intercept; βik is the kth coefficient of fixed effects that vary across dif-
ferent TAZ I, and K is the total number of coefficients of fixed effects. Xik
refers to the kth covariate contributed to fixed effects, including time-
varying variables, factors of density, land use and road design; f is a
centered, twice-differentiable smooth function, and Xil *fil (Time ) is the
nonlinear interactions between the time metric and the lth time-varying
variable. L is the total number of time-varying variables; ε is the random
effect vector of different TAZs. ε is assumed to be distributed as N{0,
θ2}, and θ is a c × 1 vector of variance components (Lin and Zhang,
1999).
4. Results
4.1. Descriptive analysis
interesting to note that taxi count density is greater on rainy days.
To better understand the temporal autocorrelations of taxi counts,
this GAMM uses a spline estimation to identify the variation of taxi
count densities under different scenarios (defined by time-varying fac-
tors), as shown in the section of time interactions in Table 3. The pre-
diction regarding the change of time-varying factors is presented in
Fig. 4. All estimated degrees of freedom (EDFs) for the interaction ef-
fects (the time metric interacting with three time-varying variables) are
greater than 1.0, and all are significant. For the interpretation of the
EDF, the EDFs for time of day (peak hours [peak hour = 1] versus non-
peak hours [peak hour = 0]) are 7.557 and 1.001, respectively, in-
dicating that the nonlinearity of the effects of time of day for taxi use is
much stronger during peak hours. The EDFs equal to 1.0 indicate lin-
earity for the relationship, whereas an EDF much greater than 1.0 in-
dicates strong nonlinearity. Similarly, the nonlinearity of weekdays
versus weekends and special event days, rainy days versus sunny or
cloudy days and the temperature in predicting taxi count density are all
strongly significant.

Fig. 2 shows how the hourly aggregated taxi counts fluctuate 4.3. Scenarios by time-varying variables
throughout the month. It is worth noting that the first week of October
is the National Festival of the People’s Republic of China, which is a As strong nonlinearities are observed between time-varying factors
series of days with special events. As noted, taxi demand is lowest and taxi count density, this study further presents these nonlinear re-
during special events, followed by weekends then weekdays. Similar lationships based on the range of factors shown in Fig. 4. Throughout
descriptive outcomes are also shown in Table 2 and Fig. 3. Table 2 the month (744 h), nonlinearities in taxi count density are observed for
shows taxi counts and taxi count densities for different time occasions. peak hours versus non-peak hours, weekdays versus weekends and
This table suggests that more people take taxis in peak hours than in special event days, and rainy versus sunny or cloudy days. Overall, taxi
nonpeak hours. Moreover, people take taxis less frequently during demand is greater during peak hours and weekdays. Regarding
weekends. As shown in Fig. 3, the changing pattern of taxi counts weather, taxi demand is more stable during sunny and cloudy days but
during weekends and special event days are similar. To facilitate an is unstable on rainy days.
interpretation of this data, the two temporal measurements (weekends
and special event days) are combined in the final model, noted as 0 for 5. Conclusions
weekdays and 1 for weekends and special event days.
Based on the analytical results of this study, more taxi pick-up ac-
4.2. Inferential analysis tivities are found in areas with dense populations. This conclusion is
consistent with prior studies (Yang and Gonzales, 2014). Taxi pick-up
As shown in Table 3, the GAMM estimates various effects of density, demands are also larger in areas with greater residential, commercial
land use, road design and time-varying variables on taxi count density. and public space land use and are assigned in areas with greater degrees
The outcome indicates that population density is significantly positively of mixed land use, such as city centers. These places are where human
correlated with taxi count density. Various land use factors, including activities are concentrated and where taxi demand is greatest. Con-
percentages of residential, commercial and public space and land use sidering the potential impacts of excessive taxi demands on walking,
mixture are all positively associated with taxi count density. Among cycling and public transport, it is suggested that highly specific taxi
roadway design elements, only the density of secondary roads is posi- boarding point planning should be conducted, particularly in dense
tively related to taxi counts, while the densities of primary and tertiary urban centers, to facilitate passengers on the one hand and reduce the
roads are insignificant. The density of road junctions is positively as- side effects on other modes of transportation at the same time on the
sociated with taxi count density. Bus stop density is significantly ne- other hand.
gative related to taxi count density, and metro station density shows a The densities of secondary roads and of road junctions are positively
negative effect; however, it is not significant. Regarding selected time- correlated with taxi demand. Residents usually have better access to
varying factors, peak hours are positively associated with taxi count secondary roads, which are characterized by a narrower road width, a
density. In addition, taxis are more popular on weekdays. Additionally, lower operating speed and a greater proximity to neighborhoods than
temperature is positively related to taxi count density. It is also primary roads have. Drivers do not usually prioritize driving on tertiary
roads due to a lower likelihood of reaching passengers. In addition,
Table 2 taxis are found to be used as an alternative mode of transit, which is
Descriptive statistics for taxi counts and taxi count density. consistent with prior studies (Yang and Gonzales, 2014). The negative
association between taxi count density and bus stop density indicates
Temporal types Taxi counts Taxi count density
that, in areas with better transit, the demand for taxis is lower. Trans-
Mean S.D. Min. Max. Mean S.D. Min. Max. port planners may consider proximal bus stops and taxi parking spaces,
which would facilitate passenger access to these alternative modes.
All periods 14.89 19.34 0.00 252.00 1.26 2.06 0.00 77.95
Regarding metros, its effect is insignificant, which may be due to the
Non-peak hours 13.72 18.87 0.00 252.00 1.16 2.02 0.00 77.95
Peak hours 18.77 20.33 0.00 182.00 1.57 2.14 0.00 72.08 metro growing in 2012 in Beijing, and the metro mode had not become
Weekdays 16.75 21.33 0.00 252.00 1.41 2.19 0.00 77.95 a popular mode then because of its availability.
Weekends 13.27 16.53 0.00 186.00 1.12 1.88 0.00 68.73 Taxi count density is greater during peak hours and weekdays. To
Special event days 11.13 14.70 0.00 217.00 0.96 1.84 0.00 72.08 minimize vacant taxi hours and to avoid the oversupply of on-street
Rainy days 12.99 17.08 0.00 193.00 1.10 1.93 0.00 73.76
taxis searching for passengers, period-based vocation policies can be
Sunny and cloudy 15.18 19.64 0.00 252.00 1.28 2.07 0.00 77.95
days assigned to taxi drivers. However, as shown in Fig. 4(a), the variation of
taxi count density between peak hours and non-peak hours is small.

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Q. Liu, et al. Travel Behaviour and Society 18 (2020) 29–36

Fig. 3. Average hourly taxi counts during weekdays, weekends and special event days.

Table 3 conclusion is constrained to the spatial limits of Beijing and, seasonally,

Generalized additive mixed modeling outcomes. to autumn. In late autumn, the warmer weather is associated with a
Variables Estimate p-value greater demand for travel; however, in summer, such a relationship is
expected to be inverted. The presence of a rainy day is positively as-
Fixed effects sociated with greater taxi demand; however, as shown in Fig. 4(c), the
Density
relationship between taxi count density and weather shows a high de-
Population density 62.19*** < 0.001
Land use
gree of nonlinearity. The weather data collected for this study is spaced
Residential 1.980*** < 0.001 at daily intervals instead of hourly. The detailed changes in taxi count
Commercial 1.675** 0.001 density across an hour or even minute-based time metric cannot be
Public space 2.109*** < 0.001 observed. It is expected that taxi demand is greater during short periods
Mixed land use 1.709*** < 0.001
of rain but declines as rains continue. This conclusion is partially con-
Road design
Primary road density 0.050 0.149 sistent with the findings of Kamga et al. (2013).
Secondary road density 0.024* 0.03
Tertiary road density −0.004 0.801 6. Discussion and future research
Junction density 0.113*** < 0.001
Density of metro stations −0.214 0.805
Density of bus stops −0.148*** < 0.001 Beyond the abovementioned analytical results, certain under-in-
Time-varying variables vestigated gaps in taxi demand should be noted. First, the pick-up and
Peak hour 0.274*** < 0.001 drop-off locations are not identical to the areas of relative taxi demand.
Weekends and special events −1.356*** < 0.001
In each city, there are underserved areas where taxis are difficult to
Rainfall 507.2*** < 0.001
Temperature 0.573*** < 0.001 access. It is not evident that the number of taxis will continually in-
Time Interactions crease in China; however, drivers will continue to minimize the time
Estimated d.f. p-value cost of searching for passengers. Drivers primarily remain in population
s(Time): Peak hour (0) 1.001* 0.050 dense areas to maximize their opportunities to reach passengers.
s(Time): Peak hour (1) 7.557*** < 0.001
s(Time): Weekends and special events (0) 8.982*** < 0.001
Conversely, people living in suburban areas may spend a long time
s(Time): Weekends and special events (1) 7.994*** < 0.001 waiting for taxis reserved online and via mobile apps, pay extra money
s(Time): Temperature 8.979*** < 0.001 for drivers’ vacant trips and are occasionally rejected for service during
s(Time): Rainfall (0) 9.018*** < 0.001 peak hours. The oversupply of taxis in city centers and the underservice
s(Time): Rainfall (1) 0.993*** < 0.001
of taxis in suburban areas are commonly observed in the real world and
Radom effects
Estimated d.f. p-value under-observed in research data. This spatial mismatch needs more
TAZ 718.6*** < 0.001 insightful analyses to balance the supply and demand of taxis. However,
Model fit R2 (adj) = 0.638 the taxi market is a totally private market and is operated by numerous
taxi drivers and companies. It would be difficult to really solve the
problem without a unified system that coordinates all players in the taxi
Period-based vocation and relaxation policies cannot be implemented market. Supporting the private car sharing program or customized
long-term or on a large scale. In addition, taxi drivers are encouraged to transit to fulfill the demand in the suburbs may be a choice. Meanwhile,
serve suburban residents instead of traveling through urban centers with the development of the mobile app reservations and the increas-
during non-peak hours. Taxi count density is higher on weekdays. De- ingly comprehensive data on the rejection of services, the overtime
spite the similarity of taxi demand patterns between weekends and spent waiting for rides and the prepaid cost of empty trips, these types
special event days, taxi counts are higher during weekends than on of failures in the taxi service can now be more fully examined.
special event days. The variation between weekdays and both weekends Another interesting observation is that taxi drivers tend to work
and special event days also shows a high degree of nonlinearity. As single shifts that match one of the peak hours in the daytime or
shown in Fig. 4(b), taxi count density during weekends and special nighttime, such that a driver will alternate with another for the ensuing
event days is occasionally identical to or even greater than it is on period, especially when the taxi demand attains its maximum. During
weekdays. that period, drivers usually reject long distance rides to avoid missing
Temperature is positively associated with taxi demand. This the deadline for the shift turnover, which significantly constrains the

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Q. Liu, et al. Travel Behaviour and Society 18 (2020) 29–36

6
Non-peak hour

summed effects
Peak hour

4
2
0

fitted values
-2

0 200 400 600

hour
(a) taxi count density during peak hours versus non-peak hours

Weekdays
Weekends and special event days
summed effects
5
0

fitted values
-5

0 200 400 600

hour
(b) taxi count density on weekdays versus weekends/special event days
10

Sunny and cloudy days

Rainy days
0
summed effects
-10

fitted values
-20
-30

0 200 400 600

hour
(c) taxi count density on sunny/cloudy days versus rainy days
Fig. 4. Time-varying factors-based taxi count density prediction.

capacity of taxi supply. In this scenario, the inelastic and reduced
supply cannot match the high demand, which further enlarges the gap
between taxi drivers and passengers. Furthermore, weather data can
only be assessed on a daily basis. If more detailed temporal data could
be obtained, the changing patterns of taxi count densities relating to
different weather patterns and temperatures could be further observed.
Additionally, this study only utilizes monthly taxi operation data for
October 2012, which reflects the taxi demand in autumn and before
app-based ridesharing had been adequately developed. Furthermore,
due to the data availability, the zone-level socioeconomic variables are
not included in the model. Future research may include timing data and
socioeconomic data from longer periods.

35
Q. Liu, et al.
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (71874010, 61773040, 51608328), and Young Elite Scientist
Sponsorship Program by the China Association for Science and
Technology (2017QNRC001). The authors would like to thank Yuanjie
Tu, who is a Ph.D. student at the University of Washington, for her
valuable helps on this work.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.tbs.2019.09.003.
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