NETWORK ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION :
Network analysis involves scheduling and planning the best possible sequence of activities in the project.
A project may be as small as to arrange a ‘Birthday party’ or as big as to build up a ‘Shopping mall”. Every
project small/big involves various tasks to be completed. The tasks are termed s activities. These activities
can be performed independently or in a sequence i.e. linked with the completion of other activities.
Suppose we consider a small project of Birthday party. The activities may be listed down as to prepare a
logical sequence of the activities so that the project can be completed within a specified duration of time with
minimum wastage of time desired. The logical sequence of the activities is called a network diagram. The
network can be constructed through the use of a series of arrows and nodes conveniently expressing the
sequential nature of the project.
Network analysis is based on the following two assumptions:
a) Every activity may have a fixed or variable completion time.
b) The total duration of the project may be reduced to certain extent by allocating some extra amount
towards the completion.
There are two techniques to study the network analysis, viz. PERT & CPM.
The PERT (Program Evaluation & Review Technique) assumes that the activity duration is not fixed and
it follows a certain probability distribution.
The technique of PERT was developed by U.S. Navy (1958) for the ‘Polaris’ missile program.
On the other hand CPM (Critical Path Method) assumes that an activity can be completed within the
specified time. This technique was developed by E I Du Pont de Nemours & Co. (1957) for construction of
new chemical plant and maintenance shut-down.
PERT / CPM techniques can answer the following important questions:
1) How long will the entire project take to be completed? What are the risks involved?
2) Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project which could delay the entire project if they
were not completed on time?
3) Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of schedule?
4) If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, what is the best way to do this at the least cost?
Basic terms used in network analysis:
Activity : An activity is a task/job to be completed within fixed or variable time duration. It is
denoted by the alphabets A,B,C etc.
Node : It represents the start and end of the activity. Every activity in the network is
presented by an ordered pair (i) representing start and end node respectively as follow

Start Node End

Path : It is the sequence of activities in which the given project may be complete. There can
be different sequences (path) of activities in which the project may be complete. On
each path the project has specified duration of completion.
Critical Path : It is the longest possible path to complete the network. The activities on the critical path
are called as the critical activities. No delay can be allowed for the activities on this
path. The activities on the other paths are called as the non-critical activities. The
starting and completing time for these activities can be delayed up to certain extent.

Rules of network construction:

 The activities in the project network should be linked in such a way that no two activities should clash
with each other. Also the logical sequence of the activities should be maintained. To develop the correct
network following rules should be followed:
1) The network should have only one start node and only one end node.
2) Every activity except the 1st activity must have at least on preceding activity.
3) Similarly every activity except the last activity must have at least one activity to follow it. It means the
start node has no activity before it and end node has no activity following
4) Only one activity can be connected by two nodes. The nodes are numbered in the ascending order.
5) Dummy activity: It is the activity with time duration “0” It is used when two activities have same start
node and same end node. E.g. when A<B, C<E, Here we introduce a dummy activity D.
Examples on construction of network
E.g.1
Activity A B C D E F
Preceding Activity - - A B B C,D
Solution:

To draw the network we first arrange the activities in the logical sequence and then number the node in the
ascending order as shown in the diagram.
E.g. 2Activity :1-2,2-3,2-4,2-5,3-4,4-6,5-6
E.g. 3 Nine activities in projects are represented with following relationships( A<B mean B follows A)
A < D, E ; B , D < F , C < G ; B < H ; F , G < I
Draw the project network
*Events are numbered in progressive direction of the arrow Time Calculations in Network Analysis and
Critical Path Analysis: The basic objective of the network analysis is to,
1) Obtain the total project duration
2) Find starting and completing time for each activity
3) Identify the critical and non-critical activities
4) Calculate the possible float (slack time) available on the critical activities.
In the network with each activity, there are different types of time durations attached as following.
Est : Earliest start time for the activity
Lst : Latest start time for the activity (Lft - Duration)
Eft : Earliest Finish time for the activity (Est + Duration)
Lft : Latest Finish time for the activity

The scheduling of the activities in the network can be evaluated in

a) Forward pass method
b) Backward pass method
a) Forward pass method: In forward pass method we find earliest start time, earliest finish time and total
project duration. Here we should note that:
i) Earliest start time of all the starting activities is 0.
ii) For any activity except the starting activities the start time is the maximum of all the earliest finish
time of all the preceding activities.
iii) The earliest finish time of the last activity/activities is same at the project duration.
b) Backward pass method: In backward pass method we find latest start time, latest finish time and
project latest start time. Here we should note that:
i) Latest finish time of all the terminating activities is equal to the project duration.
ii) For any activity except the last activities the latest finish time is the minimum of the start5 time is the
maximum of all the earliest finish time of all the preceding activities.
iii) The earliest finish time of the last activity/activities is same as the project duration. After computing
the forward and backward calculations we mark the critical path.
 POINTS TO BE REMEMBERED DURING THE NETWORK CALCULATION
(1) The starting time for the initial activity i.e. (the project) is always zero.
(2) For intermediate activities, when the activity has only one preceding activity then its Est = Eft of
preceding activity +d
(3) When there are more than one preceding activities then Est = Max (Eft of preceding activities) + d
(4) The earliest finish time for last activity is the project duration
(5) Project duration = Eft (last activity)
(6) Now on the reverse calculations which we want to complete the project in a specified time.
(7) We calculate the latest start time Ls of each activity as follows:
(a) For the last activity,
(b) Ls = Project Duration – Duration of the activity.
(c) For the remaining activities when the activity is followed by a single activity its latest start time is
the latest finish time of the following activity minus activity duration. i.e. Ls = Lf of following
activity – d
(8) Whereas when the activity is followed by 2 or more activities i.e. the Latest start time is the difference
between its duration (d) and the minimum of the latest finishing time of the following activities:
Ls = Min (Lf of following activities) –d
Note :
For the starting activity(ies).
Es = Ls = 0
For the last activity (s)
Ef = Lf = Project duration
(9) It should be noted that for all the activities on the critical path we have,
Es = Ls and Ef = Lf Also for any activity (i) on the critical path,
Ef – Es = Lf – Ls =d
Float or Stock Value -
There are many activities in the network where maximum time available to complete is more than
actually required. This is called a “Float” on the activity. Float in general is the flexibility that exists for
scheduling the noncritical activities of the project.
There are in general four types of floats. Viz. Total Float, interfering float, Free float and Independent float.
We define the various floats as follows.
(1) Total float :
It is the amount of time by which it can be delayed without delaying the project duration. For an activity
total float represents flexibility available in scheduling the activity after completing the preceding activity
and starting the succeeding activity.
Total float = Lf – Ef = Ls –Es
= Lf – Es – d
Note:
For critical activities, total float is always zero
(2) Interfering float:
The float on the activity may affect the scheduling of the other activities. The part of the total float on
the succeeding activities affected is called the interfering float. For the given activity it is calculated as
the maximum of the difference between the latest finish time of the activity and the earliest start time of
the succeeding activity or zero.
In float = Lf – Es (next), 0
(3) Free float:
It is part of the total float that can be used without affecting the scheduling of the following activities.
Free float is calculated as the difference between the total float of the activity and the slack available for
the following activity.
Therefore, Free float = Total float – head slack
(4) Independent float:
 For an activity, independent float represents the flexibility available in scheduling the activity without
affecting the scheduling of the either preceding or succeeding activity. It is the amount of free time
available on the activity after completing the preceding activity at its latest finish time and before the start
of the succeeding activity at its earliest start time. Hence it is computed as,
(5) Independent float
= Es for following activity – lf for the preceding activity Duration of the activity
Or Free float – Tail slack.
The basic difference between ‘Float’ and ‘Slack’ is that the ‘Float’ is calculated for the activities
whereas ‘Slack’ is obtained for the events.
Ex.1
Draw a network corresponding to the following and determine the earliest and the latest allowable start
and finish time for each of the activities; the critical path and project duration; the total, free interfering
and independent float for each of the activities.
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-3 2-6 3-5 3-6 4-5 5-6
Duration (days) 3 4 14 10 5 4 6 1 1
Solution: The arrow diagram for the project is as shown below. Also the diagram represents various time
calculation associated with the activities and the project.

From the network diagram we can identify the different completion paths and durations as follows:
Path Duration
1-4-5-6 16
1-3-5-6 9
1-3-6 10
1-2-3-5-6 18
1-2-3-6 19*
1-2-6 8
The critical path is 1-2-3-6 and project duration is 19 days.
Determination of scheduling time and floats
Activity Time Duration Earliest Latest Float
Duration (days) Start Finish Start Finish Total Interfering Free Independent
1-2 3 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0
1-3 4 0 4 9 13 9 0 9 0
1-4 14 0 14 3 17 3 0 0 0
2-3 10 3 13 3 13 0 0 0 0
2-6 5 3 8 14 19 11 0 0 0
3-5 4 13 17 14 18 1 0 0 0
3-6 6 13 19 13 19 0 0 0 0
4-5 1 14 15 17 18 3 0 0 0
5-6 1 17 18 18 19 1 0 0 0

TYPE I - CPM - PRACTICE PROBLEMS

Problem No:-1
Activities involved in a small project are given below with relevant information:
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-3 2-4 3-4 4-5
Duration 20 25 10 12 6 10
Construct the network and find critical path.
Find and tabulate Es, Ef, Ls, Lf and total float. (April 2009)
Problem No: - 2
Obtain Es, Ef, Ls and Lf time for the following activity schedule of project. Also calculate Total Float, Free
Float and Independent Float for these activities.
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 3-5 4-5 2-6 5-6 5-7 6-8 7-8 `8-9
Duration (weeks) 8 5 13 12 6 6 7 9 8 2 6
Problem No:- 3
A small assembly plant assembles PCs through 9 interlinked activities. The time duration for which is given
below:
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-7 4-6 5-8 6-9 7-8 `8-9
Duration 2 2 1 4 8 5 3 1 5 4 3
(hrs.)
a) Draw a Network diagram for it.
b) Calculate and tabulate for each activity, Earliest Start (Es), Earliest
c) Finish (Ef), Latest Start (Ls) and latest Finish (Lf) times
d) Find the critical and sub critical paths.
e) Calculate and tabulate Total Float, Free Float, Interfering Float and Independent Float. (Oct. 2003)
Problem No. 4
Determine: (Oct. 2005)
a) Earliest start time. d) Earliest finish time f) Latest start time
b) Latest finish time. e) Free float
c) Total float and (g) Independent float for each activity from the following table.
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 3-5 3-6 3-7 4-6 5-7 6-8 7-8
Duration 2 7 8 3 6 10 4 6 2 5 6
Problem No. 5
Following are the details of estimated times of activities for a certain project.
Activity A B C D E F
Immediate
- A A B,C - E
Predecessor/Activity
Estimated Time (Weeks) 2 3 4 6 2 8
a) Find the critical path and expected time of the project.
b) Calculate the earliest starts time and earliest finish time for each activity.
c) Calculate the slack for each activity. (Apr.2004)

TYPE – II PROJECT CRASHING

Problem No.6
The following table gives data on normal time and cost, and crash time and cost for a project.
Activity Duration Total Cost
Normal Crash Normal Crash
1-2 3 2 300 450
2-3 3 3 75 75
2-4 5 3 200 300
2-5 4 4 120 120
3-4 4 1 100 190
4-6 3 2 90 130
5-6 3 1 60 110
i) Draw the network of the project and find the critical path.
ii) If the indirect cost for the projects is 100, find out the optimum duration by systematic crashing and the
corresponding cost. (Nov. 2008)
Problem No. 7
A project consists of five activities. Relevant details about activities duration, crash time, normal and crash
costs are as given in the following table.
Activity Normal time Crash time Normal Crash cost
 (days) (days) cost (Rs) (Rs)
1-2 5 4 170 240
1-3 9 6 310 550
2-3 6 4 80 200
2-4 10 8 130 230
3-4 6 4 110 290
The indirect cost is estimate at Rs. 120 per day of project duration.
What is the optimal project duration i.e. duration at total minimum cost?
Problem No. 8 (Apr. 2003)
For the data given in the table below, draw the network. Crash systematically the activities arid determine
the optional project duration and cost: Indirect cost is Rs, 70/- per day
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-4 2-5 3-4 4-5
Normal Time (days) 8 4 2 10 5 3
Normal Cost (Rs.) 100 150 50 100 100 80
Crash Time (days) 6 2 1 5 1 1
Crash Cost (Rs.) 200 350 90 400 200 100
Problem No. 9
The following table gives the activities in a construction project and other relevant information.
Normal Crash
Preceding Normal Crash Cost
Activity Time Time
Activity Cost (Rs.) (Rs.)
(Days) (Days)
1-2 -- 20 17 600 720
1-3 -- 25 25 200 200
2-3 1-2 10 8 300 440
2-4 1-2 12 6 400 700
3-4 1-3, 2-3 5 2 300 420
4-5 2-4, 3-4 10 5 300 600
a) Draw the activity network of the project
b) Find the critical Path
c) Using the above information, Crash or Shorten the activity step by step until the shortest duration is reached.
Problem No.10
The following is a table showing details of a project.
Activity Immediate Time (week) Cost (in 000’)
Predecessor Normal Crash Normal Crash
A 10 7 20 30
B 8 6 15 20
C B 5 4 8 14
D B 6 4 11 15
E B 8 5 9 15
F E 5 4 5 8
G A,D,C 12 8 3 4
Indirect cost is 2400 per week. Find the optimal duration and associated minimum project cost.

RESTIRICTED CRASHING
Problem No. 11
The table below provides cost and time estimates of seven activities of a project
Time estimates (Weeks) Direct cost estimates (Rs. In 000)
Activity
Normal Crash Normal Crash
1-2 2 1 10 15
1-3 8 5 15 21
2-4 4 3 20 24
3-4 1 1 7 7
 3-5 2 1 8 15
4-6 5 3 10 16
5-6 6 2 12 36
a) Draw the project network corresponding to normal time.
b) Determine the critical path and the normal duration and normal cost of the project
c) Crash the activities so that the project completion time reduces to 9 weeks with minimum Additional cost.
Problem No. 12 (Oct. 2010)
The following table shows details of a project. Indirect cost is 200/- per day:
Normal Crash
Nodes
Time (days) Cost (Rs.) Time (days) Cost (Rs.)
1-2 4 600 3 800
1-3 2 400 2 400
1-4 5 750 4 900
2-3 7 400 5 600
2-5 6 800 6 1000
3-5 2 500 1 650
4-5 5 600 4 800
a) Construct the project network and identify the critical path. What is the normal duration and
corresponding total cost of the project?
b) Crash the project systematically and find out minimum cost for 7 optimal times. Also find out additional
costs required to reach the optimal time.
Problem No. 13 (April 2005)
The time and cost estimates and precedence relationship of the different activities constituting a project are
given below:
Time in(week) Cost (in Rs.)
Activity Predecessor
Normal Crash Normal Crash
A 3 2 80 190
B 8 6 6 10
C B 6 4 100 120
D B 5 2 40 100
E A 13 10 30 90
F A 4 4 150 150
G F 2 1 12 14
H C,E,G 6 4 35 45
I F 2 1 70 80
a) Draw a project network diagram and find the critical path.
b) If a dead line of 17 weeks is imposed for completion of the project which activities will be crashed, what
should be the additional cost and what would be the critical activities of the crashed network after
crashing?
Problem No. 14
Table below shows jobs, their normal time and cost, crash time and cost estimates for each job, Indirect cost
for the project is Rs. 300.
i) Draw the network of the project.
ii) What is the normal duration and cost of the project?
iii) If all activities are crashed, what will be the project duration and the corresponding cost?
iv) Find the optimum duration and minimum project cost.
Job Normal Crash
Time (days) Cost Time Cost
1-2 6 1400 4 1900
1-3 8 2000 5 2800
2-3 4 1100 2 1500
2-4 3 800 2 1400
3-4 0 0 0 0
 3-5 6 900 3 1600
4-6 10 2500 6 3500
5-6 3 500 2 800

CRASHING SLOPE IS ALREADY GIVEN

Problem No. 15 (April 2008)
A small marketing project consists of jobs in the table given below. With each job is listed its normal time
and crash time in days. The cost in Rs. Per day of crashing each job is also given.
Activity Normal Crash duration Crashing cost
I-j Duration inDays In days (Rs. Per day)
1-2 9 6 20
1-3 8 5 25
1-4 15 10 30
2-4 5 3 10
3-4 10 6 15
4-5 2 1 40
a) Draw the network diagram and find the normal project length.
b) If overhead costs are Rs. 60 per day and assuming normal projects costs as Rs. 1000/- what is the optimal
project length and minimum total cost?
Problem No. 16 (Oct. 2006)
A project consists of activities A,B,C,D,E& F. Following table provides the details about these activities. On
the basis of Network diagram drawn using these data the Project Manager wants to take certain decision so
as to save the projects time and cost. The Direct Project Cost is Rs. 580 and the indirect cost i s Rs. 70 per day.
Activity Preceding Activity duration Shortest Cost reduction
Activity in days time/day per day
A -- 8 6 50
B -- 4 2 100
C A 2 1 40
D B 10 5 60
E A 5 1 25
F C,D 3 1 10
a) Draw the Network diagram and find project’s duration.
b) Find Critical path.
c) Identify the lowest cost and associated time.
d) Determine the optimum project length and optimum cost after crashing.
e) Calculate the shortest time and associated cost.
NETWORK DIAGRAM COMPLICATION
Problem No. 17 (Oct-2009)
Following are the various activities involve in a project. The cost and time information for these activities is
given below.
Immediately Normal Crash
Activity
preceding Activity Time (days Cost (Rs.) Time(days) Cost(Rs.)
A -- 3 140 2 210
B -- 6 215 5 275
C -- 2 160 1 240
D A 4 130 3 180
E A 2 170 1 250
F A 7 165 4 285
G B,D 4 210 3 290
I-I C,E 3 110 2 160
a) Draw the network diagram.
 b) Find out the critical path and the expected project completion time.
c) What is the minimum possible project completion time after crashing the activities involved in the
project and the associated cost of completing the project?

TYPE III PERT – PRACTCAL PROBLEMS

Problem No.18
The following table given optimistic (a), pessimistic (b) and most likely (m) durations in days for a project.
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-3 2-5 3-4 3-6 4-6 5-6
A 2 4 4 1 3 6 3.5 2 0.5
M 3 6 7 3 6 9 5 4 2
B 4 8 10 5 9 12 6.5 6 3.5
Determine the expected duration and variance for each activity. Also find he project duration and the critical
path.
Problem No. 19
Duration of activities in a project is not certain. The following table gives optimistic a) pessimistic b) and
most likely m) durations in days for a project.
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-3 2-5 3-4 4-5
A 5 18 16 6 5 3
B 11 22 20 12 12 5
M 8 20 18 9 10
a) Determine the expected duration and variance for each activity.
b) Find the probability that the project will be completed 3 days later than the expected duration.
Problem No. 20
A project has the following activities and other characteristics.
Time estimates (in weeks) Crash
Activity Preceding Activity
Most Optimistic Most likely Most Pessimistic
A -- 5 8 17
B -- 2 6 16
C A 7 13 31
D A 3 6 9
E C 5 12 18
F D 4 7 16
G B 4 9 28
H E,F 2 5 8
I G 5 20 29
a) Draw the PERT network diagram.
b) Identify the critical path.
c) Find the expected duration and variance for each activity. What is expected project length?
d) What is the probability that the project is completed at least 3 weeks prior to scheduled completion?
Problem No. 21 (April 2004)
Nagaria and Asociates are preparing for laying the foundation of state computer centre to be inaugurated by
the Chief Minister by the end of August 2004. Following are the abbreviated activities and their predecessor
activities with their three time estimates of completion time.
Activities A B C D E F G H I J K
Predecessor Activities - - A B C C C,D F,G E I H
Optimistic Time estimate 2 8 7 6 9 10 11 6 4 3 1
Presumptive Time estimate 4 8 11 6 11 18 11 14 6 5 1
Most likely Time estimate 3 8 9 6 10 14 1 10 5 4 1
a) Draw the PERT network diagram.
b) Compute the slack for each activity and determine the critical path.
c) As per the contract a penalty of 5000/- is to be charged for any delay beyond 37 weeks. What is the
probability that Nigeria& Associates will have to pay a maximum penalty of Rs. 15000/-?
(Note Area under standard normal variant z – 0 to z – 1.4795 is 0.4306)
Problem No. 22 (April 2005)
A project has the following activities and other Characteristics.
Preceding Time estimates (in weeks)
Activity
Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
A -- 4 7 16
B -- 1 5 15
C A 6 12 30
D A 2 5 8
E C 5 11 17
F D 3 6 15
G B 3 9 27
H E,F 1 4 7
I G 4 19 28
a) Draw the PERT network diagram
b) Identify the critical path.
c) Prepare the activity schedule for the projects.
d) Determine the mean project completion time.
e) Find the probability that the project is completed in 36 weeks.
(Area between Z = 0 and Z = 0.2 is 0.793).

REVERSE PROBLEM
Problem No. 23 (Apr. 2002)
A project consists of eight activities with the following relevant information.
Time estimates (in weeks)
Activity Preceding Activity
Most Optimistic Most likely Most Pessimistic
A -- 2 2 8
B -- 2 5 8
C -- 3 3 9
D A 2 2 2
E B 3 6 15
F C 3 6 9
G D,E 4 7 16
H F,G 2 3 4
i) Draw the PERT network and find out the expected project completion time
ii) What duration will have 95% confidence for project completion?
(Given area under normal curve from z= 0 = 1.65 ( 0.45)
Problem No. 24 (Apr. 2008)
Activity Time estimates (in weeks)
Most Optimistic Most likely Most Pessimistic
1-2 2 5 14
1-6 2 5 8
2-3 5 11 29
2-4 1 4 7
3-5 5 11 17
4-5 2 5 14
6-7 3 0 27
5-8 2 2 9
7-8 7 13 31
a) Draw the network diagram and determine various paths and their durations.
b) Calculate the probability of completion of the project in 38 days
c) Calculate the project duration if the probability of project completion is to be 94.5%.
Problem No. 25
As the Project Manager of a construction company, you are involved in drawing PERT network for a new
project. The relevant 3 point time estimates for all activities of the project are given in the following table : -
Time estimates (in weeks)
Event
Optimistic Time Most Likely Time Pessimistic Time
1-2 4 6 8
2-5 8 10 12
2-3 6 10 14
3-4 0 0 0
2-4 4 8 12
4-5 2 4 6
5-6 2 6 10
a) Construct the PERT network for the project and determine the critical path and the expected project
completion time.
b) What duration will have 95% confidence for project completion?
c) If there is huge penalty for exceeding the project completion deadline of 27 weeks, what is the
probability of not being penalized?
Problem No. 26
A project consists of 8 activities with the following relevant information.
Activity A B C D E F G H
Immediate Predecessor - - - A B C D,E F,G
Time a 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 1
b 7 7 8 2 14 8 15 3
m 1 4 2 1 5 5 6 2
a) Draw a PERT network and find out the expected project completion time.
b) What duration will have 90% confidence for project completion?

Problem No. 27 Bid cost calculations (Apr. 2007)

A small project consists of seven activities, the details of which are given below:
Duration (days)
Activity Immediate Predecessor
Most likely time Optimistic time Pessimistic time
A -- 3 1 7
B A 6 2 14
C A 3 3 3
D B,C 10 4 22
E B 7 3 15
F D,E 5 2 14
G D 4 4 4
Draw the network, number the nodes and answer the questions given below:
a) What are the expected projects completion time and the next most critical path?
b) What is the probability that the project would be completed in 30 days?
c) What project duration will have 95% confidence of completion?
d) If the fixed cost of the project is 10,00,000/- and variable costs is 8000/- per day then find the amount the firm
should bid under this policy of 95% confidence of completion? (For the purpose of bidding consider only
cost)
Problem No. 28
Miss AAYESHA has taken up a special project consisting of 8 activities whose three time estimates are
listed in the table below:
Activity Estimate duration ( in weeks)
(I – j) Optimistic Mostly likely Pessimistic
1-2 1 3 5
1-3 2 4 6
2-5 3 5 7
2-4 5 6 7
 5-6 5 7 9
4-6 6 8 10
3-6 7 9 11
6-7 2 3 4
a) Draw the PERT network and identify critical path.
b) Prepare a chart to show estimated time, standard deviation and variance for each activity from time
estimates given a above.
c) If 21 weeks dead line is imposed, what is the probability that the project will be finished within that
time?
d) If the project manager want to be 99% certain that the project should be completed a per schedule what
will be the project duration? (April 2009)
Problem No. 29
A small project consisting of 6 activities has the following characteristics:
Activity Optimistic Time (Days) Most Likely Time (Days) Pessimistic Time (Days)
1-2 5 7 12
1-3 12 13 17
2-4 15 18 21
3-4 2 3 5
2-5 8 10 14
4-5 21 26 35
a) Draw the PERT network diagram for the project, and identify its critical path and estimated project
duration.
b) Prepare a chart to show estimated time, standard deviation and variance for ech activity from time
estimates given as above.
c) If the project manager wants to be 99% certain that the project should be completed on schedule what
will be the project duration?
Problem No. 30 (Oct. 2010)
As the Project Manager of a construction company, you are involved in drawing a PERT network for a new
project. The relevant 3 point time estimates for all activities of the project are given in the following table:-
Events Times estimates (Weeks)
Optimistic Mostly likely Pessimistic
1-2 4 6 8
2-5 8 10 12
2-3 6 10 14
3-4 0 0 0
2-4 4 8 12
4-5 2 4 6
5-6 2 6 10
a) Construct the PERT network for the Project and determine the critical path and the expected duration of
the project.
b) What duration will have 95% confidence for project completion?
c) If there is a huge penalty for exceeding the project completion deadline of 27 weeks, what is the
probability of not being penalized?

Problem No. 31 (Apr 2010)

A Project Manager has made following 3 point time estimates for various activities of a project.
Estimated duration (Weeks)
Events
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
1-2 2 2 14
1-3 2 8 14
1-4 4 4 16
2-5 2 2 2
3-5 4 10 28
 4-6 4 10 16
5-6 6 12 30
6-7 2 4 6
a) Draw the PERT network and find out the expected project completion time.
b) What project completion will have 90% confidence for project completion?
c) If there is a huge penalty for exceeding the project completion deadline of
44 weeks, what is the probability of not being penalized?
Problem No. 32

(Oct 2009)
Activity Predecessors Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
A None 3 6 9
B None 2 5 8
C A 2 4 6
D B 2 3 10
E B 1 3 11
F C,D 4 6 8
G E 1 5 15
a) Draw the project network.
b) Find the critical path and expected completion time.
c) What is the probability that the project will be completed by 18 weeks?
d) What will be the project duration so that the project manager is confident
with 95% that the project will be completed on schedule?

CHANGE OF MATRIX
Problem No. 33
The data for PERT network is displayed in the table. Determine the critical path
and the expected durationof completion of the entire project. Give answers to the
following:
i) What is the probability that the project duration will exceed 60 days?
ii) What is the chance of completing the project between 45 days and 54 days?
iii) If it becomes known later that the duration of three time estimates for activity 4-6
has to be revised to 14-20-32. What impact does this have on project completion
time? What is the probability that the project can now be completed on or before
46 days?
Time Duration (Days)
Activity Nodes
Optimistic time Most likely time Pessimistic Time
1-2 2 4 6
1-3 6 6 6
1-4 6 12 24
2-3 2 5 8
2-5 11 14 23
3-4 15 24 45
3-6 3 6 9
4-6 9 15 27
5-6 4 10 16