Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Telecommunication Planning
Telecommunication Planning
Telecommunications Planning
Forcasting
Telephone
Denisty Models
3.1.1 Forcasting.
▪ Number of subscribers.
▪ Telephone traffic.
Determination of number of subscribers.
➢ Number of inhabitants.
➢ Telephone density.
➢ Number of houses.
➢ Number of population in industry commerce.
➢ Income distribution.
➢ Some measure of economic activities.
1) Linear Model.
For small number of years.
S=s0+Kt
❖ S: number of subscriber at t-years.
❖ S0:initial number of subscribers’
❖ K: constant of annual growth.
2) Exponential Model.
If the annual increase in number of subscriber is constant
percentage.
(ds/dt)/s=1/t
ds/s= dt/t by integrate both sides
ln s=(t/t1)+ln k
S=k e(t/t1)
At T=t=0
S=k
S=s e(T/t)
3) Gompertz Model.
Caters for saturation of demand.
➢ P: total number of people in the area.
➢ S: number of telephone subscriber.
➢ P-S: number of remaining.
ds/dt α P-S
ds/dt α S
ds/dt α S(P-S)
ds/dt= k2s(lnP-lnS)
ds/dt= k2s ln(P/S)
ln(P/S)=Y
P/S=eY
S=P e-Y
ds/dt=-Pe-Y dy/dt
k2*s lnP/S =-Pe-Y dy/dt
dY/dt=-k2Y
dy/Y=-k2dt
lnY=-k2t+k2t2=-k2(t- t2)
Y=e-k2(t- t2)
Ln P/S= e-k2(t- t2)
S=P e-e^ e-k2(t- t2)
• t2 : constant
• k2: constant
• t :change with P&S
4) Logistic Curve Model.
ds/dt=k3s(P-S)
ds/s(P-S)=k3dt integrate it by partial fraction
(P-S)/S ds+s ds/P-S=k3 dt
ds/s + ds/P-S=k3P dt
lnS-ln(P-S)=k3P(t-t3)=k3Pt- k3t3P
P-S/S=e k3P(t-t3)
S=P/1+e k3P(t-t3)
5) Approximated Model
Gross National Product.
ds/s=B dy /y
ln s=A+B ln y
ln s=B ln y+ A
• Replacement.(analog to digital)
• Overlay
• Hybrid
3.1.4 Quality of service
❖ Transmission quality
❖ Delay time
❖ Grade of service
Telephone Set
Telephone set
Loud speaker Microphones
circuit
Communication systems
❖ Telephony.
❖ Mobile communication.
❖ Optical fibers.
❖ Data communications.
❖ Satellite communications.
❖ Wireless communications.