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Springer Atmospheric Sciences
Darko Koračin
Clive E. Dorman Editors
Marine Fog:
Challenges and
Advancements
in Observations,
Modeling, and
Forecasting
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10176

Darko Koračin • Clive E. Dorman
Editors
Marine Fog: Challenges

and Advancements in
Observations, Modeling,
and Forecasting
Editors
Darko Koračin Clive E. Dorman
Faculty of Science Integrative Oceanography Division
Department of Physics Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of Split University of California, San Diego
Split, Croatia La Jolla, CA, USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences Department of Geological Sciences
Desert Research Institute San Diego State University
Reno, NV, USA San Diego, CA, USA
ISSN 2194-5217 ISSN 2194-5225 (electronic)

ISBN 978-3-319-45227-2 ISBN 978-3-319-45229-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-45229-6
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016958809
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or
dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt
from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained
herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.
Printed on acid-free paper
This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Darko Koračin and Clive E. Dorman
2 Worldwide Marine Fog Occurrence and Climatology . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Clive E. Dorman, John Mejia, Darko Koračin, and Daniel McEvoy
3 Early and Recent Observational Techniques for Fog . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Clive E. Dorman
4 Turbulence in Marine Fog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
Chang Ki Kim and Seong Soo Yum
5 Radiation in Marine Fog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273
Chang Ki Kim and Seong Soo Yum
6 Synoptic Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 291
Suping Zhang and John M. Lewis
7 Marine Fog: A Review on Microphysics
and Visibility Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
Ismail Gultepe, Jason A. Milbrandt, and Binbin Zhou
8 Precipitation and Fog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
Robert Tardif
9 Modeling and Forecasting Marine Fog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425
Darko Koračin
v
vi Contents
10 Ensemble Fog Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477

Jun Du and Binbin Zhou
11 Multi-spectral Remote Sensing of Sea Fog
with Simultaneous Passive Infrared and Microwave Sensors . . . . . 511
Eric M. Wilcox
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527
Contributors
Clive E. Dorman Integrative Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of

Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
Department of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA,
USA
Jun Du NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, USA
Ismail Gultepe Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research, Environment and
Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
Chang Ki Kim New and Renewable Energy Resource Center, Korea Institute of
Energy Research, Daejeon, South Korea
Darko Koračin Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, University of Split,
Split, Croatia
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA
John M. Lewis National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, USA
Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, USA
Daniel McEvoy Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute,
Reno, NV, USA
John Mejia Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute,
Reno, NV, USA
Jason A. Milbrandt Atmospheric Numerical Weather Prediction Research,
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Robert Tardif Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington,
Seattle, WA, USA
vii
viii Contributors
Eric M. Wilcox Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute,

Reno, NV, USA
Seong Soo Yum Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul,
South Korea
Suping Zhang Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography & Ocean-Atmosphere
Interaction and Climate Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Binbin Zhou I. M. Systems Group and NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling
Center, College Park, MD, USA
Chapter 1
Introduction
Darko Koračin and Clive E. Dorman
Abstract Marine fog has a significant impact on human activities and the envi-
ronment. A substantial portions of all accidents at sea worldwide occur in the
presence of dense fog. Fog’s disruption of marine transport, harbor activities,
coastal road traffic, and life threatening situations are often in the news. Fog trans-
ports droplets and their ions, aerosols, and microorganisms that alter the hydrologic,
thermodynamic, nutrient, and toxicological properties of ecosystems in coastal
regions. Fog also controls temperature and moisture conditions in coastal areas
and consequently affects vegetation and especially forest evolution. Some of the
highest degradations of air quality occur during fog under stable and stagnant
anticyclonic conditions. In principle, fog forecast models should resolve a huge
span of physical processes ranging from the characteristic 10 7 m scales of aerosols
to synoptic processes with scales of 106 m, which means the range of the smallest to
the largest scales is on an order of 1013 m. The main variables and processes
relevant to fog include aerosols and fog condensation nuclei; microphysics and
precipitation; advection; synoptic conditions; air-sea interaction through surface
fluxes of heat, latent heat, moisture, and momentum; air and sea surface tempera-
ture; ocean currents and upwelling; land-sea interactions and local circulations;
characteristics of low marine inversion and entrainment; and coastal topography.
The main goal of this book is to provide comprehensive understanding of the major
processes leading to formation, evolution, and dissipation of fog by using observa-
tions, modeling, and forecasting. Discussed topics include fog observational in situ
D. Koračin (*)
Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, University of Split, Ruđera Boškovića 33,
21000 Split, Croatia
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway,
Reno, NV 89512, USA
e-mail: dkoracin@pmfst.hr; Darko.Koracin@dri.edu
C.E. Dorman
Integrative Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of
California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive # 0209, La Jolla, CA 92093-0209, USA
Department of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive,
San Diego, CA 92182-1020, USA
e-mail: cdorman@ucsd.edu
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017 1

D. Koračin, C.E. Dorman (eds.), Marine Fog: Challenges and Advancements
in Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting, Springer Atmospheric Sciences,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-45229-6_1
2 D. Koračin and C.E. Dorman
and remote sensing techniques, worldwide fog climatology, radiation and turbu-
lence properties, microphysics and visibility parameterizations, effects of precipi-
tation on fog, and deterministic and probabilistic fog modeling and forecasting.
In general, fog is a phenomenon that we all experience in our lives and impacts our
activities and the environment. When we wish to discuss marine fog, the first step is
to review the definition of fog. We can start with the definition from the Glossary of
the American Meteorological Society (http://glossary.ametsoc.org): “Fog is a
hydrometeor consisting of a visible aggregate of minute water droplets suspended
in the atmosphere near the earth’s surface. According to international definitions,
fog reduces visibility below 1 km (0.62 miles). Fog differs from cloud only in that
the base of fog is at the earth’s surface while cloud bases are above the surface.”
According to the Glossary, the main mechanism for fog formation is: “Fogs of all
types originate when the temperature and dew point of the air become identical
(or nearly so), provided that sufficient condensation nuclei are available. This may
occur either through cooling of the air to its dew point (producing advection fog,
radiation fog, or upslope fog), or by adding moisture and thereby elevating the dew
point (producing steam fog or frontal fog). Fog seldom forms when the dew-point
spread is greater than 4 F.” The Glossary also explains fog subsets and differences
among fog, haze and mist. “According to U.S. weather observing practice, fog that
hides less than 0.6 of the sky is called ground fog. If fog is so shallow that it is not an
obstruction to vision at a height of 6 ft above the surface, it is called simply shallow
fog. Fog is easily distinguished from haze by its higher relative humidity (near
100 %, having physiologically appreciable dampness) and gray color. Haze does
not contain activated droplets larger than the critical size according to the K€ohler
theory. Mist may be considered an intermediate between fog and haze; its particles
are smaller (a few μm maximum) in size, it has lower relative humidity than fog,
and does not obstruct visibility to the same extent.”
While considering the many books on bookstore shelves and information avail-
able throughout the media, a reader might ask an appropriate question: Why a book
on marine fog? Also, more precisely, why focus on marine fog? The oceans cover
71 % of the earth’s surface and contain 97 % of the water on the earth’s surface;
however, due to abundant measurements over the land compared to over the ocean,
land fog is much more investigated than to sea fog. Additionally, it should be
noticed that most large world cities are located in coastal regions. Due to a lack of
routine measurements at fixed locations over vast portions of the ocean, measure-
ments and predictions of sea fog represent a great challenge for research and
application studies. Because of the air-sea-land interaction processes, sea fog can
be advected to land and appear as coastal land fog and vice versa. An indirect effect
can also occur when aerosols originating from the land are transported over the sea
and initiate sea fog. Even simple advection of the moisture during sea breezes and
onshore flows can provide enough moisture for nighttime radiative cooling and fog
formation over land. Consequently, fogs over the coastal sea and land can be
mutually connected and we call this joint phenomenon marine fog.
1 Introduction 3
Fog, and marine fog in particular, make a significant impact on human activities
and the environment. Significant number of cases of all accidents at sea worldwide
occur in the presence of dense fog. Fog disrupts marine transport, harbor activities,
coastal road traffic, and causes life threatening situations. At some airports there are
efforts to artificially dissipate fog by inducing mixing and turbulence with ventila-
tion systems, aerosol and ice seeding, and warming systems to evaporate fog
droplets. Fog also makes significant impact on ecology by transporting water and
organic and inorganic substances onto coastal ecosystems. The transported droplets
and their ions, aerosols, and microorganisms alter the hydrologic, thermodynamic,
nutrient, and toxicological properties of ecosystems in coastal regions. Fog alters
temperature and moisture conditions in coastal areas. Sea fog can drift and transport
aerosols and water onto coastal land and together with the fog originating over the
land can change environmental conditions. Fog significantly affects vegetation,
especially forest evolution in coastal areas. Future projections of declining fog
frequency in some areas will also induce declines in certain species of coastal
vegetation and a consequent impact on animals. Some of the highest degradations
of air quality occur during fog under stable and stagnant anticyclonic conditions.
This frequently happens in industrial areas where fog is mixed with locally gener-
ated pollution to form a combination known as smog.
Besides negative impacts due to fatalities and damages, there are positive
aspects of marine fog in areas with low hydrology reserves—fog collecting
becomes an important source of increasing water supply. In coastal regions, fog
supplies moisture for the evolution of forests. From some viewpoints, fog provides
an enjoyable aesthetic view, and has been inspiration and background for literature
and movies.
Fog is elusive with great spatial and temporal variability, which makes it
extremely difficult to describe quantitatively and yet even more difficult to accu-
rately predict on synoptic and climate scales. Fog forecasting has a long history.
Generally, people connected fog appearance with good and stable weather. Prior to
and during WWII, operational weather forecasting centers were using analysis of
weather observations and providing forecasts based on statistical and empirical
methods, but also using experience and intuition. After WWII, with the establish-
ment of weather communication systems and an expanded measurement network,
weather forecasting has undergone major developments. A major development was
the advent of computer systems and numerical weather forecasting models in the
second part of the twentieth century.
In principle, forecast models should resolve a huge span of physical processes
ranging from the characteristic 10 7 m scales of aerosols to synoptic processes with
scales of 106 m, which means the range of the smallest to the largest scales is on an
order of 1013 m. The main parameters and processes relevant to fog include aerosols
and fog condensation nuclei; microphysics and precipitation; advection; synoptic
conditions; air-sea interaction through surface fluxes of heat, latent heat, and
momentum; sea surface temperature; ocean currents and upwelling/downwelling;
land-sea interactions and local circulations; characteristics of low—level marine
inversion and entrainment; and coastal topography. All of these scales and
processes impose great difficulty on numerical prediction. Global models are too
coarse to resolve a full scale of fog processes, but regional and mesoscale models
are generally able to reproduce and predict synoptic processes. Fog measurements
are mainly conducted over the land while sea fog over the oceans lacks routine and
fixed measurements and networks to cover it. Satellite detection, data analysis, and
interpretation are emerging tools with great potential for determining the worldwide
spatial and temporal properties of fog, but still with significant problems related to
detection algorithms not fully resolving fog layers. Specifically, fog layers are
usually only a few hundred meters deep, so that the fog top temperatures are
close to the local sea surface temperatures. Consequently, satellite detection algo-
rithms are not always able to fully differentiate fog layers from the surrounding sea.
Standard worldwide fog climatology extends about to the 1950s at sea and perhaps
to the 1930s on land. However, with the rapid expansion of sea traffic after 1950 and
installation of buoy networks after 1980, there is now a large data base for climate
studies that has been explored in this book.
Another important question is the role of fog in scenarios of climate change. Due
to their high albedo and persistence in many areas of the world, fog layers represent
a notable component of the air-earth-ocean radiation balance. Future fog properties
including frequency, intensity, and spatial changes will influence climate evolution.
However, global climate models with coarse resolutions and limited physics
parameterizations cannot resolve the finer scales of fog necessary to determine
details of the physical processes relevant to fog formation, evolution, and dissipa-
tion. Regional climate models with resolutions on the order of several tens of
kilometers or better are improved tools, but are still not able to accurately resolve
or predict all fog phases. Note that initial and boundary conditions for regional
climate models are still derived from the global climate models for the future
projections and for historical simulations. Details of fog projections in climate
change scenarios are important and relevant to planning future activities in many
areas including traffic, energy, fisheries, agriculture, hydrology, and forestry.
There is a definite need to enhance sea-based observational networks including
buoys and ships and improve satellite fog retrievals as well as spatial and temporal
resolution of data. Intensive field programs are needed to understand details of fog
3D structure and evolution on all scales from aerosols and fog condensation nuclei
to synoptic scales. Modeling and forecasting need to achieve higher accuracy of fog
predictions, despite current insufficient resolution and inaccurate representation of
physical processes as well as inaccurate initial and boundary conditions. Statistical
methods, including those based on principles of artificial intelligence, are valuable
tools in operational forecasting for a particular location, but they cannot provide
results under conditions of significant synoptic evolution. Coupling high-resolution
one-dimensional models with relatively coarse-resolution 3D models has been
yielding better results than 3D models alone. Some advanced numerical techniques
such as large-eddy simulations have been applied to fog prediction and show
promise in approaching the fine scales of fog processes. Full coupling between
atmospheric and ocean models will need to be considered for predicting marine fog.
Significant advances in fog predictions are provided by ensemble forecasting,
1 Introduction 5
which reveals model uncertainty and introduces probabilistic forecasts of fog.

Studies also show that understanding air-mass pathway history can be crucial to
determining and predicting fog characteristics. Some studies show that, in addition
to all forecasting techniques, a subjective insight from an experienced forecaster
can improve the final fog forecast in many cases. Although fog predictions repre-
sent a significant challenge to climate modeling, the use of future-developed, high-
resolution climate models is essential to estimating projections of fog properties
and distributions, which are extremely important to understanding the evolution of
fog impacts on human activities and ecosystems.
The structure of the book by chapters is as follows.
Chapter 2. Worldwide Marine Fog Occurrence and Climatology
An analysis of marine weather observations collected from 1950–2007 as part of
the International Comprehensive Ocean-atmosphere Data Set (ICOAD) has
resulted in a unique climatology of marine fog, shallow fog, and mist.
Chapter 3. Early and Recent Observational Techniques for Fog
The observational techniques from the early 1950s to date for fog and related
atmospheric parameters as well as for lower atmospheric boundary layer are
examined including data examples.
Chapter 4. Turbulence in Marine Fog
The roles of the turbulent transport of heat and moisture in the marine environ-
ment from both observational and modeling studies are examined to explain the
importance of turbulence in marine fog formation.
Chapter 5. Radiation in Marine Fog
The chapter elaborates on the role of longwave and shortwave radiation trans-
fers and complexities of their parameterizations on the formation and evolution of
marine fog.
Chapter 6. Synoptic Processes
The chapter presents importance of synoptic processes and seasonal variability
on the formation, evolution, and dissipation of marine fog along the Chinese coast
and Yellow Sea where the deepest marine fogs in the world occur.
Chapter 7. A Review on Microphysics and Visibility Prediction
The areas of marine fog related research and operations that are discussed in
the chapter include aspects of visibility, microphysical parameters such as liquid
water content, aerosol particle size distribution, nucleation, drop size distribution,
degree of supersaturation, radiation and particle interaction, heat and moisture
fluxes, and dynamics of the system at various scales.
Chapter 8. Precipitation and Fog
Building on early as well as more recent studies, this chapter presents a
comprehensive description of our current level of understanding of key physical
principles involved in the formation and evolution of precipitation fog—a lesser
known yet important aspect of the fog phenomenon.
Chapter 9. Modeling and Forecasting of Marine Fog

Historical review and analysis of various fog modeling and forecasting tech-
niques using statistical and dynamical models as well as challenges in model
development and applications to various regions worldwide is discussed in this
chapter.
Chapter 10. Ensemble Fog Prediction
The chapter presents new advances in fog research by using probabilistic
forecasting and estimating uncertainties related to models and input data.
Chapter 11. Multi-spectral Remote Sensing of Sea Fog with Simultaneous Passive
Infrared and Microwave Sensors
This chapter uses a combination of the satellite standard visible/infrared data
combined with a co-located retrieval of sea surface temperature from microwave
imager data to remotely detect marine fog.
Chapter 2
Worldwide Marine Fog Occurrence
and Climatology
Clive E. Dorman, John Mejia, Darko Koračin, and Daniel McEvoy
Abstract Herein, an analysis is presented of the world’s marine fog distribution

based upon the International Comprehensive Ocean-atmosphere Data Set
(ICOADS) ship observations taken during 1950–2007. Fog, shallow fog, and mist
are taken from routine weather reports that are encoded in an ICOADS ship
observation with the “present weather” code. Occurrence is estimated by the
number of observations of a type divided by the total present weather observations
in a one-degree area. The bulk of the observations are in the northern temperate and
tropical oceans, with decreasing numbers south of 20 S and large data voids in the
polar oceans. Marine fog is infrequent over most of the world’s oceans with the
median occurrence 0.2 % while it is in isolated maxima for values larger than about
2 %. In a specific location, either fog or mist are the most frequent, followed with an
order of magnitude lower occurrence by shallow fog.
The two major open ocean fog maxima in the world occur on the northwestern
side of northern hemisphere oceans during the summer under atmospheric subsidence
C.E. Dorman (*)

Integrative Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive # 0209, La Jolla,
CA 92093-0209, USA
Department of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive,
San Diego, CA 92182-1020, USA
e-mail: cdorman@ucsd.edu; cdorman@mail.sdsu.edu
J. Mejia
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA
e-mail: john.mejia@dri.edu
D. Koračin
Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, University of Split, Ruđera Boškovića 33,
21000 Split, Croatia
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway,
Reno, NV 89512, USA
e-mail: dkoracin@pmfst.hr; Darko.Koracin@dri.edu
D. McEvoy
Western Regional Climate Center, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA
e-mail: Daniel.McEvoy@dri.edu
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017 7

D. Koračin, C.E. Dorman (eds.), Marine Fog: Challenges and Advancements
in Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting, Springer Atmospheric Sciences,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-45229-6_2
8 C.E. Dorman et al.
over a cold polar current. The distribution of the center of the maximum and highest
values are over shallow water and follow the shape of the shallow bathymetry. For
the highest occurrences, surface air is preconditioned by warming over a western
boundary current followed by cooling over a negative SST gradient and stable lower
atmosphere suppressing boundary layer exchange with the air above. The horizontal
fog structure is set by surface ocean currents, sea surface temperature gradients and
seasonal wind direction. Marine fog’s most frequent occurrence and largest areal
coverage is in the NW Pacific in June–July–August, reaching its peak value of 59.8 %
over the Kuril Islands on the western side of the Ohyashio current. The second largest
marine fog maximum occurrence is in the NW Atlantic in June–July–August,
reaching 45.0 % over the Grand Banks and the Labrador Current. The eastward
extent of both of the NW ocean maxima is determined by the sub-polar ocean gyre.
Wind driven coastal ocean upwelling regions have a narrow zone of fog located
against the coast, over the inner shelf and over the sea surface temperature mini-
mum along the coast. A mist maximum occurs in a broader area beyond the
temperature minimum. The lowest fog occurrence is in the cold season and the
highest is in the warm season for all five areas except SW Africa which has its
maximum in March–April–May. SW Africa has the highest single grid point fog
occurrence and its upwelling, which lasts all year, and fog maximum, are both
divided into two, separate areas. California–Oregon has the greatest along coast
extent of fog occurrence and SST minimum as well at the lowest SST minimum.
NW Africa, and Peru have significantly less fog occurrence, a shorter extent along
coast of fog and a higher minimum SST. For all of the wind driven coastal
upwelling zones, the Arabian Peninsula has the least fog occurrence, the shortest
along coast extent as well as the highest SST minimum.
Significant fog and mist occurs at mid-latitudes in marginal seas and along the
western side of northern hemisphere oceans. Over the NW Pacific, fog occurrence
average of the 5 highest grid point values in the Sea of Okhotsk is 51 % in June–July–
August, in the Japan Sea it is 27 % in June–July–August and the Yellow Sea it nears
15 % during March–April–May and June–July–August. The greatest fog and mist
occurs along the southern China coast in December–January–March and March–
April–May when the average of the 5 highest values are between 4 % and 6 %. On
the NW Atlantic along the NE United States and Canada fog is most prevalent in
June–July–August and least in December–January–February. During June–July–
August, an elevated fog occurrence over the shelf extends along the coast from Cape
Cod to SW Labrador that includes a maximum centered off the SE tip of Nova Scotia
where the average of the five highest fog grid point occurrences is 41 %. The Nova
Scotia maximum center is separate from that over the Grand Banks.
On the NE Atlantic appreciable fog and mist occurs around the N. European
coastline in all seasons. In the North Sea, the average of the fog 5 highest grid point
occurrences is greatest in March–April–May (8 %) and least in September–
October–November (4 %). For the Baltic Sea, the average of the five highest fog
grid point occurrences is most in March–April–May (15 %), and least is in
September–October–November (6 %).
The polar seas have their greatest fog and mist occurrences during the warm
season and the least during the cold season. The transitional seasons appear to have
2 Worldwide Marine Fog Occurrence and Climatology 9
intermediate fog and mist values around the periphery while the interior is largely
unsampled. Observations are mostly limited to the warm season, distributed
unevenly and with vast areal data voids.
There are significant fog occurrence climate trend increases tested at the 0.05
significance level for June–July–August based upon the 1950–2007 record in three
areas with high numbers of ship observations. The open ocean Kuril Island maxi-
mum occurrence in NW Pacific increased by 15.8 % and the Grand Banks maximum
in the NW Atlantic increased by 12.8 %. The sea surface temperature (SST) over the
same area and same period also increased which is consistent with published SST
increases in the adjacent western boundary currents in both oceans. The third case is
the increase of 7.4 % of the fog occurrence maximum along the California–Oregon
coast over wind driven upwelling water. In contrast to the NW Ocean maximums,
this coastal fog maximum is associated with a long term SST decrease.
1 Introduction
The collection and retention of marine data in the late nineteenth and early
twentieth century were greatly expanded by the interest that was initially focused
on land. Foremost among these was the International Meteorological Organization
(Sarukhanian & Walker n. d.). In 1923, the IMO passed a resolution that resulted in
data captured from hundreds of stations around the world (World Meteorological
Organization, n. d. a). The collection of meteorological data on a worldwide scale
was further encouraged by and organized with conferences after WWII. In 1951,
the IMO formally became the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), an
agency of the United Nations, in direct succession from the IMO.
With the international interest came the development and acceptance of the
surface synoptic observations (SYNOP) meteorological reporting code, with
defined procedures and protocols for taking and encoding weather observations.
This step was crucial for worldwide ocean coverage due to the multinational aspect
of ships. Developed in the late 1940/1950s, this program evolved in the United
States to become the Federal Meteorological Handbook No. 1—Surface Weather
Observations and Reports (FMH-1, 2005) and FM-12 by the WMO. The interna-
tional collection and retention of weather SYNOP observations is encouraged by
the Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) scheme through the WMO (World Meteoro-
logical Organization, n.d. b) and by many countries (http://www.vos.noaa.gov/vos_
scheme.shtml). The adoption of the SYNOP code for observations greatly increased
the standardization of recording atmospheric conditions, reducing ambiguities and
making subtle differences and trends more detectable over time and areas that are
crucial not only to climate, but also to synoptic scale studies.
A special focus agency to assemble global surface marine data from the late
seventeenth century to date began in 1981, as initial archiving of this data in the
United States was as the Comprehensive Ocean-atmosphere Data Set (COADS).

The formal designation was changed to International COADS (ICOADS) to rec-
ognize the multinational input into the blended observational database and other
benefits gained from extensive international collaboration (Slutz et al., 1985, http://
weather.unisys.com/wxp/Appendices/Formats/SYNOP.html). A list of publica-
tions is available at http://icoads.noaa.gov/publications.htm. ICOADS is the prin-
ciple source of observations used in this study.
2 Present Weather Observations Over the Sea
2.1 Data Source
Most of the data used in the present analysis is based on global ship weather
observations from ICOADS, which was introduced in the previous section. The
data used are from 1950 through 2007, from Release 2.5, Individual Observations,
ds 540.0, Release 2.5.1 Intermediate, in experimental-2 format at http://rda.ucar.
edu/datasets/ds540.0/#!access. The data is organized by individual ship observa-
tions, by month and year for the world, in the IMMA format described in http://rda.
ucar.edu/datasets/ds540.0/index.html#!docs and discussed in Woodruff, Slutz,
Jenne, and Steurer (1987), Worley, Woodruff, Reynolds, Lubker, and Lott
(2005), and Woodruff, Diaz, Worley, Reynolds, and Lubker (2005). The majority
of the modern data since the mid-1900s is ship data that was taken in the SYNOP
format.
The question of quality arises when dealing with marine data taken under a range
of circumstances, observer experience, and technological and institutional changes,
not to mention the alteration of observing practices and weather codes that have
occurred since the mid-1900s. Additional complications are that a significant amount
of data is incomplete or has observational or encoding errors. The ICOADS agency
publications document past quality control actions that were taken in an attempt to
correct obvious errors. A relatively recent action was to eliminate duplicates, a
nontrivial exercise when millions of observations can arrive at an archive through
different pathways. Another step is to compare objective measurements with clima-
tology and to flag outliers. The experience of the authors of this chapter is that the
bulk of the observations are consistent and are useful for climate studies.
2.2 Methodology for the Fog Event Data Base
This study focuses almost exclusively on ICOADS “present weather,” which

characterizes the weather at the moment of observation and during the previous
hour. This is an observer’s subjective assessment based on looking around outside,
Table 2.1 Present weather codes related to fog

ww Weather Qualification
Code
ww ¼ 00–49 No precipitation at the station at the time of observation
ww ¼ 00–19 No precipitation, fog, ice fog (except for 11 and 12), dust storm, sandstorm, or
drifting or blowing snow at the station at the time of observation or, except for 09 and 17, during
the preceding hour
ww ¼ 04–09 Haze, dust, sand, or smoke
10 Mist
11 Patches 11–12, shallow fog or ice fog at the sta-
12 More or less continuous tion, whether on land or sea, not deeper
than about 2 m on land or 10 meters at sea
ww ¼ 20–29 Precipitation, fog, ice fog, or thunderstorm at the station during the preceding hour,
but not at the time of observation
28 Fog or ice fog During the preceding hour, but not at the
time of observation
ww ¼ 30–39 Dust storm, sandstorm, or drifting or blowing snow
ww ¼ 40–49 Fog or ice fog at the time of observation
40 Fog or ice fog at a distance at the time of
observation, but not at the station during
the preceding hour; the fog or ice fog
extending to a level above that of the
observer
41 Fog or ice fog in patches
42 Fog or ice fog, sky visible 42–43 has become thinner during the pre-
43 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible ceding hour
44 Fog or ice fog, sky visible 44–45 no appreciable change during the
45 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible preceding hour
46 Fog or ice fog, sky visible 46–47 has begun to or has become thicker
47 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible during the preceding hour
48 Fog, depositing rime, sky visible
49 Fog, depositing rime, sky invisible
ww ¼ 50–59 Drizzle
ww ¼ 60–69 Rain
ww ¼ 70–79 Solid precipitation, not in showers
ww ¼ 80–99 Showery precipitation or precipitation with current or recent thunderstorm
Adapted from Woodruff et al. (1987)
Those used in this study are bold
checking measurements, and then assigning a two-digit code from 01 to

99, according to the SYNOP code. Codes that are or might be related to fog are
listed in Table 2.1. The primary fog conditions are expressed by codes 40–49,
which specify fog as a cloud deeper than 10 m touching the Earth’s surface with the
horizontal visibility less than or equal to 1 km. We consider these as descriptions as
representative of fog for purposes of this study, and distinguish them from shallow
fog. Codes 11 and 12 designate the occurrence of “shallow fog or ice fog at the
station, not deeper than about 10 m at sea.” Shallow fog does not envelop the
observer on most reporting vessels and does not expressly meet the restricted
visibility criterion for the conventional definition of fog. Mist (code 10), might be
considered a sort of near fog condition wherein water droplets restrict visibility in
the surface layer, but not less than 1 km, and it does not meet the visibility limit for
fog. We do not include Code 28, “fog or ice fog,” which “occurred during the
preceding hour but not at time of observation,” as it does not occur at the time of
observation, over weights the occurrence of fog when compared to those which
occur at the time of observation and is a more ambiguous characterization that is not
necessarily accompanied with visibility or other supporting meteorological data.
Haze (05) is excluded, as it is generally includes factors other than water droplets
such as dust, smoke, and has a different color, droplet diameter distribution and a
greater visibility than fog.
We should mention two other observations related to fog that are not included in
this analysis. One observation is “past weather,” a single-digit element of the
original SYNOP code absorbed into the ICOADS observation in 1982. Code #4
of this element is for “fog or ice fog or thick haze” during the past hour. This
condition is not counted as fog in this study, as this aspect is not present at the time
of observation, it assigns a different meaning to fog than what is used for fog, and it
mixes haze and fog. The other observation is “total cloud amount (cover),” also
represented by a single digit. The intent of this element is for the observer to
estimate, subjectively, the amount of cloud covering the sky, ranging from clear
(no cloud, coded 0) through 1/8 steps to totally covered (8/8, coded 8). The situation
was coded as 9 if the observer could not see or distinguish what was above,
characterized as “sky obscured by fog and/or other meteorological phenomena.”
This condition is not counted as fog, due to the ambiguous nature of this element
that mixes fog and “other,” such as precipitation and mist. This observation can be
even more ambiguous on a dark night, when an observer is reduced to assuming
cloud cover if stars cannot be seen and has to guess whether it is due to cloud or if
the sky is obscured by something else. Finally, there were additional discussions
regarding total cloud amount in the ICOADS documentation that are not
repeated here.
2.3 Percent of Occurrence and Adjustment
Between January 1983 and February 1985, not reporting the present weather code
was allowed if there was no significant weather. For 26 months, if there was no
present weather reported, it could be that the present weather was not observed or
that the weather was observed but it was not significant (WMO, 1994). This practice
biased the count of a weather type toward the high side. To correct this situation, if
the present weather code was missing for the period January 1983–February 1985,
then the total cloud cover was examined, and if a code of 0–8 was reported, the sky
was considered observable and there could not have been fog. In this case, the count
of total number of present weather observations is increased by one. During this

period, the median ratio of the number of observations missing present weather but
with a total cloud cover entry to the total number of observations was 0.26. By
comparison, this ratio was much lower during the summers of the 1970s when this
ratio was only 0.02.
We follow the practice by others who report fog as a percent of occurrence. In
this chapter, the percent of observations for a weather type (such as fog, shallow
fog, mist) is the sum of all applicable occurrences in that category divided by the
sum of all present weather code occurrences then multiplied by 100.
2.4 Data Base Specifics: Reporting Codes
The data period begins in 1950 and ends in 2007, which was the most recent data
available when this investigation initiated. The start date was chosen as it is near the
initial development and adoption of the SYNOP format, with its formalized weather
codes or its predecessor, as well as the dramatic increase in the number of ship
observations after WWII. Although the ICOADS ship observations reach back into
the age of sail on account of digitization of hand written ship logs, the number of
ship observations falls off sharply before about 1950 and there are many limitations
to their usefulness to due to the lack of standardization. In this analysis, the
minimum resolution of observations is one-degree grid points over the oceans by
3 month season and year. The median percent of fog occurrence for the world for
the data period is low, 0.2 %, and the standard deviation is 8 %. After examining the
ICOADS data, it appears that 100 is the minimum number of observations required
to compute a stable fog occurrence at a grid point for a season. The bulk of the
present weather observations is in the north and central Pacific and Atlantic oceans
while there are great gaps and little coverage south of the tropics as well the Polar
Regions.
2.5 Frequency Distribution of the Weather Codes

in the Data Base
We examine the distribution of the present weather observations for the world’s
oceans over the 1950–2007 period to give an impression about the relative fre-
quency of occurrence. The numbers and ranks of selected codes that are fog
designated, possibly related to fog, or have large numbers of observations are
shown in Table 2.2 for JJA and Table 2.2 for DJF. All codes numbers for JJA are
shown in Fig. 2.1a, with the smallest being a few hundred. In JJA, the first four
codes, 00–03, make up the bulk of observations with 75 % of the total. Fog
observations (40–49) make up 5.2 % of the observations, with code 45 being the
Table 2.2 Worldwide distribution of some ICOADS Present Weather Code (ww) observations
1950–2007 (though majority are in northern hemisphere)
ww Number of
code Rank Obs 103 Weather condition
(a) During June–July–August
00 4 1641 Cloud development not observed
01 2 3871 Clouds generally dissolving
02 1 13,322 State of sky on the whole unchanged
03 3 3564 Clouds generally forming or developing
04 39 23 Visibility reduced by smoke, forest fires, industrial smoke, or
volcanic ash
05 8 612 Haze
10 7 659 Mist
11 33 51 Patches, low fog <10 m
12 32 55 Continuous, low fog <10 m
28 25 112 Past hour, not at observation time, fog
40 27 96 Fog at a distance, level above the observer
41 26 100 Fog or ice fog in patches
42 28 78 Fog or ice fog, sky visible, becoming thinner
43 25 111 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible, becoming thinner
44 21 149 Fog or ice fog, sky visible, no change in past hour
45 5 754 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible, no change in past hour
46 30 65 Fog or ice fog, sky visible, becoming thicker in preceding hour
47 16 200 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible, becoming thicker in preceding
hour
48 60 5 Fog, depositing rime, sky visible
49 47 16 Fog, depositing rime, sky invisible
Blocks
00–03 22,398 Four most frequent observations
04–09 4254 Haze, dust, sand, or smoke
20–29 1022 Precipitation, fog, ice fog, or thunderstorm at the station
during the preceding hour but not at time of observation
30–39 42 Dust storm, sandstorm, or drifting or blowing snow
40–49 1575 Fog
50–59 699 Drizzle
60–69 946 Rain
70–79 25 Solid precipitation (snow) not in showers
80–99 563 Showers or recent thunderstorm
(b) During December–January–February
00 4 1587 Cloud development not observed
01 2 3803 Clouds generally dissolving
02 1 12,359 State of sky on the whole unchanged
03 3 3499 Clouds generally forming or developing
04 58 14 Visibility reduced by smoke, forest fires, industrial smoke, or
volcanic ash
(continued)
Table 2.2 (continued)

ww Number of
code Rank Obs 103 Weather condition
05 11 255 Haze
10 8 304 Mist
11 49 22 Patches, low fog <10 m
12 47 23 Continuous, low fog <10 m
40 50 22 Fog at a distance, level above the observer
41 45 24 Fog or ice fog in patches
42 56 16 Fog or ice fog, sky visible, becoming thinner
43 55 19 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible, becoming thinner
44 40 31 Fog or ice fog, sky visible, no change in past hour
45 26 93 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible, no change in past hour
46 61 13 Fog or ice fog, sky visible, becoming thicker, preceding hour
47 41 31 Fog or ice fog, sky invisible, becoming thicker, preceding hour
48 87 3 Fog, depositing rime, sky visible
49 77 4 Fog, depositing rime, sky invisible
Blocks
00–03 21,248 Four most frequent observations
04–09 361 Haze, dust, sand, or smoke
20–29 1264 Precipitation, fog, ice fog, or thunderstorm at the station
during the preceding hour but not at time of observation
30–39 27 Dust storm, sandstorm, or drifting or blowing snow
40–49 256 Fog
50–59 562 Drizzle
60–69 1045 Rain
70–79 495 Solid precipitation (snow) not in showers
80–99 875 Showers or recent thunderstorm
fifth most frequent ww observation. Mist, code 10, is ranked seventh while shallow
fog, codes 11 and 12, are ranked 32 and 33 which is low compared to fog or mist.
Also noted in Table 2.2 and Fig. 2.1a, b are the number of observations for the
weather type blocks of codes for drizzle, rain, snow, and showers (rain and
thunder), which are observed less frequently than fog.
Continuing with the ww codes, we examine the December, January, and
February (DJF) distribution for 1950–2007, to contrast with that in JJA. In this
period, there were a similar number of present weather observations (Table 2.2). All
codes numbers are shown in Fig. 2.1b, with the smallest being a few hundred.
Again, the first four codes make up the bulk of the observations, with 77 %. The fog
observations (40–49) are reduced to 0.9 % of the observations, with code 45, the
most frequent fog observation, reduced to the rank of 26th in observation fre-
quency. As most of the observations are in the northern hemisphere, snow (70s)
and showers (80s and 90s) have increased considerably from JJA, but they remain a
small portion of the season total. Rain observations are about the same, while
a x 105 Number of Observations, JJA, All Oceans

3.5
Drizzle
10, Mist, Rain
3 Showers:
11, Shall Fg,
Rain
12 Shall Fg
&
2.5 Snow
Thunder
2 45 Fog
Number
1.5
0.5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Present Weather Code
b x 105 Number of Observations, DJF, All Oceans

3.5
Drizzle Rain
3 10 Mist, Showers:
11 Shall Fg Rain
12 Shall Fg &
2.5 Snow
Thunder
2
Number
1.5
1
45 Fog
0.5
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fig. 2.1 (a) June–July–August number of ICOADS present weather observations for the period
1950–2007 over the world oceans. Fog observations, codes 40–49, are red. Yellow bars are for
weather somewhat related to, but not fog, and are discussed in the text. Horizontal magenta band
marks codes 00–03 which have the four greatest number of observations, make up the majority of
the total. Green bands designate weather type blocks that are labeled above with a down arrow.
Four weather codes (10, 11, 12, 45) with of special interest (see text) are also labeled. Bars for
codes 00–03, 05, 10, 15, 25 and 45, which exceed the upper limit of the graph are cut off at this
value. (b) December–January–February number of ICOADS present weather observations,
1950–2007, for the world oceans. Bars for codes 00–03, 15 and 25, which exceed the upper
limit of the graph, are cut off at this value
drizzle is reduced. Not shown are September, October, and November (SON) or
March, April and May (MAM), which have intermediate values between the two
seasons shown. A summary is that fog, shallow fog and mist are most frequent
during the warm season.
2.6 Zonal and Seasonal Distributions of Present Weather

Code Observations
The ww code numbers seem to shift appropriately when concentrating on latitude

zone and season. Presented in Fig. 2.2a are different world bands for JJA.
Representing the major portions of the world, from tropical to pole are the Tropical
band (10 S to 10 N), Subtropical band (20 N to 40 N), Temperate band (40 N to
60 N), and Polar band (>60 N). Fog is a significant block in the temperate band,
which will be shown later to contain the world’s two largest fog occurrence
maximums that are in the NW Pacific and NW Atlantic, as well as drizzle (50s)
and rain (60s). Fog decreases in the subtropical and polar bands and almost
disappears in the Tropical band. Snow (70s) is minuscule in the lower three
bands, but a small number of occurrences is reported in the polar band. The number
of showers (80, 81, 82) is similar in the three lower latitude bands, while the small
number of thundershowers (90s) is greatest in the temperate and subtropical bands.
The first four codes (00–03) form the bulk of observations in each band.
The present weather observations in the world bands are repeated for DJF
(Fig. 2.2b). Fog groups are substantially less in the three northerly bands during DJF,
while negligible fog numbers are repeated in the Tropical band. A major shift in DJF is
the increased numbers of snow (70s) and showers (80s) in the Polar and Temperate
bands. Examination of the present weather observations in other world bands and
seasons (not presented) appear as would be expected from the two presented.
2.7 Fog Occurrence Uncertainty
This section investigates the uncertainty of the fog occurrence calculations, the
main focus of this chapter. This can be approached different ways although all are
essentially related to the standard deviation. As noted in Sect. 2.4, the standard
deviation is 8 % for the mean fog occurrence for the world oceans based on the
1950–2007 record. However, the median fog occurrence is very low, 0.2 % which is
due to the fact that most of the observations are in temperate and tropical oceans
away from coasts where fog is rare (Fig. 2.3).
A special facet to this question is that a stable value for a grid point requires a
minimum number of observations. Tests with the smallest number of ship obser-
vations needed for a stable estimate suggested that at least 100 observations are
a x 104 Polar Band, > 60N, JJA

18
x 104 Temperate Band, 40 N to 60 N, JJA

18
x 104 Subtropical Band, 20 N to 40 N, JJA

18
Number
x 104 Tropical Band, 10 S to 10 N, JJA

18
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
b x 104 Polar Band, > 60N, DJF

18
x 104 Temperate Band, 40 N to 60 N, DJF

18
x 104 Subtropical Band, 20 N to 40 N, DJF

18
Number
x 104 Tropical Band, 10 S to 10 N, DJF

18
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Fig. 2.2 Present weather codes observed in world bands during (a) June–July–August and
(b) December–January–February for 1950–2007. The world bands are Tropical (10 S to 10 N),
Subtropical Band (20 N to 40 N) Temperate Band (40 N–60 N) and Polar (>60 N). Bars
exceeding the upper limit, such as codes 00–03, 05, 10, and 45 are cut off top at top of graph
30
Standard Deviation (%) 25
20
15
10
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Deep Fog Occurrence (%)
Fig. 2.3 Standard deviation vs. fog occurrence for grid points in the NW Atlantic area 35 N to
52 N and 50 W to 42 W. For each grid point the June–July–August fog occurrence record is
divided into 4-year blocks. The mean for each block is computed and the standard deviation is
based upon the 14 4-year blocks for each grid point with in the area
required base an estimate of the fog occurrence over a time period. Major portions
of the world oceans do not meet this minimal criteria for a season based on the
entire 1950–2007 record. Subdividing the record for climatic trends at a grid point
can only be done over heavily traveled shipping lanes in the Northern Hemisphere
or combining the observations for multiple grid points.
The effects of high occurrence and number observations on the standard devi-
ation and yearly averaging in a selected portion of the world ocean are now
examined. Individual grid point values from 45 N to 38 N along 49 W are
shown in Table 2.3 which include high fog occurrence in the northern end and very
low in the southern end and all are in major shipping lanes. The mean fog ratio is the
average of JJA for single years while the brackets are all JJA values summed
together before occurrence is computed. The standard deviation at a grid point for
1 year, 2 year and 4 year averages are presented. There is a strong relationship such
that as the mean decreases from high occurrence at higher latitudes to low occur-
rence at lower latitudes, and the standard deviation systematically decreases for all
of the averaging periods. The second is that collecting more observations before
making the proportion calculation decreases the standard deviation for all cases.
In the previous paragraph, the effect of yearly averaging is presented. This
paragraph shows the relationship of 4-year averages average over an area. At a
grid point, for JJA, the record of 1950–2007 is divided into 4 year block for a, total
of 14 for each grid point over an area in NW Atlantic 35 N to 52 N, 50 W to
42 W. This includes high occurrences in the northern portion, (up to 45 %) and
very low occurrences (less than 0.2 %) in the southern portion. As the occurrence
Table 2.3 Effect of the JJA fog mean value and the number of years averaged on the standard
deviation for grid points along a selected meridian in the NW Atlantic where the mean decreases
from high to low with the latitude. See text for further explanation
Total # all years Standard deviation (%)
Grid point position All ww Fog Mean* fog (%) 1 year av 2 years av 4 years av
45N 49W 4494 1939 43.2 14.5 8.7 6.4
44N 49W 5021 2251 45.0 14.7 9.8 7.0
43N 49W 5382 1647 30.6 9.4 6.5 4.6
42N 49W 5161 881 17.0 8.0 5.4 3.0
41N 49W 3901 221 5.6 4.4 3.2 2.2
40N 49W 4463 69 1.5 1.8 1.4 0.8
39N 49W 3450 28 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.9
38N 49W 2340 8 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.5
a
Value is occurrence mean of 1 year JJA calculations
av, average
decreases from about 17 % to near zero, the standard deviation decreases from 8 %
to less than 0.1 %. For fog occurrences of 20–45 %, except for one value, the SD
fluctuates 5 %. Scatter plots of the standard deviation vs. number of observations
and fog occurrence vs. number of observation are both without any systematic
relationship (not shown).
Another way to view the uncertainty is in comparison between neighboring grid
points. The case shown is for fog occurrence at grid points for JJA based on
1950–2007 average. Eight areas were selected to illuminate a range of climate
conditions (Table 2.4). These results were computed by pairing each grid point with
three neighbors so as to not repeat any: one to the N, one to the NE and one to the
East. A vector was generated for the central grid point and a vector for each of the
three neighboring grid points. The results are presented in Table 2.4 where statistics
are given for the vectors consisting of grid point values for each area. Correlation is
between the central vector and the neighboring point vector. The results are
consistent with that noted previously – higher occurrences have higher standard
deviation. Greatest standard deviation (8–14 %) is in NW ocean fog maximum with
highest occurrence. Median values and standard deviations decrease to less than
0.2 % for subtropical and tropical oceans. Correlations between neighboring pairs
are greatest in 35 N to 60 N latitudes (0.60–0.94 in examples) and are
uncorrelated in subtropical and tropical oceans.
Yet another way to view the uncertainty, the difference between neighboring
grid point pairs. The set-up is the same as with correlation in previous section and
show on the left hand side of Table 2.4. As is expected, the median difference
decreases with the decrease in the median occurrence value. The median of 1–4 %
in NW oceans falls to less than 0.2 % in subtropical and tropical oceans. The
standard deviation of the difference also decreases from a high in NW
oceans (~5 %) to less than 0.2 % in subtropical and tropical oceans. A useful
result is that any grid point value that differs significantly from its nearest
neighbors is suspect.
Table 2.4 Fog occurrence statistics based on the 1950–2007 record at grid points in selected
oceanic areas for which the boundaries are shown on the left. GP means “grid points.” Pacific
Ocean area values are clear while Atlantic Ocean area values are gray shaded. See text for
discussion
Area Grid Points Difference
Num Num 10% Med 90% SD Corr 10% Med 90% SD
GP’s pairs
NW Ocean – High Fog Occurrence
43-49N 49 147 30.9 43.8 55.6 8.3 0.76 0.7 3.8 9.4 5.5
151-157E
35-52N 162 486 0.2 9.2 35.9 14.2 0.94 0.1 1.3 8.5 4.7
50-42W
NE Ocean – Moderate to Low Fog Occurrence
45-50N 42 126 3.7 5.6 8.7 1.9 0.63 0.1 0.9 2.3 1.6
134-128W
45-50N 54 162 1.4 2.4 3.6 0.8 0.81 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5
15-7W
Subtropical Ocean – Very Low Fog Occurrence
25-30N 66 198 0 0 0.4 0.2 0.16 0 0.2 0.6 0.3
175-165W
30-35N 66 198 0 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.03 0 0.1 0.2 0.1
40-30W
Tropical W. Ocean – Very Low Fog Occurrence
12-17N 54 162 0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.04 0 0.0 0.1 0.1
110-118E
13-17N 55 165 0 0.0 0.1 0.04 0.05 0 0.0 0.1 0.1
78-68W
3 Worldwide Marine Fog Occurrence
3.1 Mean Quarterly World Ocean Analyses: Number

of Observations
The number of present weather observations greater than 100 per one-degree grid
point is examined first, as higher numbers give more weight to the results. The
number of all present weather observations for JJA is greatest along major
shipping routes, with the highest values and no data voids in the northern tem-
perate oceans (Fig. 2.4a). Further, all major shipping routes stand out with their
higher numbers, including those in marginal seas such as the Mediterranean Sea
and the Red Sea. Away from major shipping routes, there are significant data
voids south of 20 N in the Pacific and south of the Equator in the Atlantic Ocean
and Indian Ocean. Most of the ocean south of 35 S, as well as in the higher
Arctic, is without minimum observations. As noted previously, less than
100 observations in a one-degree grid point during a 1950–2007 quarter is
considered a data void. The number of observations per degree square is similar
in the DJF quarter (Fig. 2.4b), except there are fewer on the edge of the Arctic and
somewhat more in the Southern Ocean. The other quarter’s numbers are between
those of JJA and DJF (not shown).
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should never have been really happy afterward.”
Many a happy passage at arms took place between the fair
rivals. It was certainly most suggestive. The dead queens had not
struggled more for the sole possession of bluff Harry’s heart than
these two did most unconsciously for Sir Ronald’s love.
It was growing near the close of the evening when Sir Ronald
danced with Lady Hermione. The brilliant ballroom was very warm
then, and she laughed as she said:
“I should not like to be a queen always; the weight of my royal
robes is great.”
“You are always a queen, though not dressed en reine,” he
replied. “You look tired; let us go into the grounds—the cool, sweet
air will refresh you.”
Over her queenly costume and crowned head he drew a black
lace mantilla, in which she looked inexpressibly beautiful, and they
went through the corridor to the moonlit grounds, where many of
Lord Lorriston’s guests were enjoying the beauty of the night. Great,
fragrant roses sighed out their sweetness, and the lilies gleamed
palely. The song of a nightingale in the distant woods was heard
plainly, when there came a soft, languid lull in the music. The stars
came out like golden lamps in the darkling sky; and they stood, those
who loved each other so well, with the first faint pulse of love thrilling
each heart, too happy for words; for words, after all, do not tell the
heart’s sweetest and deepest thoughts.
Only once—when there was a faint stir in the wind, and the roses
all bowed their crimson heads, the white bells of the lilies trembled;
then he drew the lace mantle more closely round her—he bent down
and looked into her beautiful face.
“My queen,” he whispered, “see, even the flowers know their
queen.”
And, as she smiled at the words, she looked so lovely and so
loving, that he forgot everything except the passionate longing to call
her his own. He bent down and kissed the pure, sweet lips that had
never been kissed before.
CHAPTER XIII.
LED ON BY FATE.
Lady Hermione did not utter one word. She was not angry; he
knew that, for the beautiful face flushed warm as he touched it.
“He has a right to kiss me,” she thought to herself, “for he loves
me. No one has ever kissed me before, and never shall.”
Then he would have told her the story of his love, the story that
rose from his heart to his lips in a burning torrent of words; but at that
moment, over the roses came the sound of light laughter, and there
was no more solitude; he was obliged to leave the story untold.
It was Captain Gordon and Miss Monteith, seeking the cool air of
the grounds. Simple accident led them to that path among the roses,
but the accident, simple as it was, altered the course of three lives.
Not again that evening did Sir Ronald find even three minutes’
leisure to devote to Lady Hermione. She was the belle of the ball, the
queen of the fête, always surrounded by a little court of admirers, the
center of all homage. Yet he was content.
“She cares for me,” he said to himself, over and over again; “she
was not angry when I kissed her face. She is so dainty, so pure, so
sweet, that if she had not meant that I should love her she would
have rebuked me with proud words. She loves me, and when I ask
her to be my wife, she will not say me nay.”
And the very thought caused his heart to beat high with triumph,
made his whole soul overflow with happiness, and while he stood
there he saw Miss Severn looking at him with wistful eyes. It struck
him at once how entirely he had forgotten her, and he hurried across
the ballroom.
The beautiful, passionate face seemed to glow with new life as
he bowed to her.
“I thought your majesty had forgotten Queen Jane,” she said, with
all the music of reproach and love in her voice.
“I must plead guilty to the charge of losing my interests in one,”
he replied, “and yet I cannot accuse myself of forgetting you.”
He meant nothing but the most idle of words, such as no one
could refrain from speaking to a beautiful woman, who flattered him
with her preference.
“I must not be hard upon you, remembering you had six queens
to love,” she said.
“Complete the pardon by giving me the next dance,” said Sir
Ronald, and she gladly consented.
They stood together before a rich cluster of white hyacinths, a
flower of which she was especially fond. Suddenly she looked in Sir
Ronald’s face.
“Speaking seriously,” she said, “and remembering history, do you
believe that King Harry ever loved Jane Seymour as much as he did
Anne Boleyn?”
“Speaking seriously, as you say, Miss Severn, I am inclined to
think—yes; he did. She never displeased him; she died before she
had time to offend him; she increased his importance by leaving him
a son and heir.”
“But,” interrupted Clarice, “how passionately he loved that
beautiful Anne; how he wooed her, how he pursued her—what
thousands of tender words he must have lavished on her!”
“Words are but empty sounds,” he interrupted.
“And you believe, after all, that passion of devotion—after defying
all Europe for her sake—that he loved Queen Jane the best?”
“I have not thought much about the matter, but from rapidly
thinking over all I remember of the subject, I should say, yes, he
cared most for Jane.”
It pleased her to read a hidden meaning in his words of which he
was most entirely unconscious. He had for the moment even
forgotten how the historical characters were distributed; but Clarice
Severn gathered up all these words, and placed them in her heart;
she pondered over them, and they made for a few short days the
music of her life.
The brilliant evening came to an end, and left three people more
happy than words of mine could tell. Lady Hermione, with her lover’s
first kiss warm on her lips, his passionate words lingering in her ears,
her heart warm with the remembrance of all he had said to her, and
how dearly he loved her; Sir Ronald, happy because he believed the
bonnie bright bird he had wooed so long would flutter into his hand;
Clarice, happy under a false impression, and because she loved Sir
Ronald so well that she believed that which she should only have
hoped.
“I will lose no time,” said Sir Ronald to himself. “To-morrow I will
ask her that most honest of all questions: ‘Will you be my wife?’”
But Sir Ronald found that to propose and to accomplish a deed
was very different. Although he was remaining at Leeholme until
evening he found no opportunity of saying one word to Lady
Hermione; there were so many guests and her attention was so
incessantly occupied. There were always young girls eagerly talking
to her, or gentlemen paying her compliments, and, as the daughter
of the house, she was engaged in entertaining visitors. In vain Sir
Ronald watched and waited. He only asked five minutes, but even
that short space of time was quite out of his reach.
He sat by her side during lunch, but even the most ardent of
lovers could not possibly make an offer of marriage over cold
chicken and lobster salad. There was a little assertion of
independence, too, on her part. She knew what was coming just as a
wild, bright forest bird knows its fate when the net is drawn around it.
In vain Sir Ronald spoke to her. The lovely eyes, so frankly raised to
other faces, drooped shyly from his. The sweet, proud lips that
smiled so freely were mute and closed for him.
Maiden modesty and maiden pride rendered her shy, timid and
silent with the lover for whom she would have laid down her sweet,
young life. Sir Ronald only loved her the better for it; his heart beat
with impatience.
“Let me have only one minute with her,” he said, “and I would
soon change all that.”
But Sir Ronald was obliged to leave Leeholme without
accomplishing his wish. He rode home through the fragrant gloaming
with a heart full of love that was both happiness and pain.
“She will be mine,” he said to himself, when any cold or cruel
doubts came to him; “she will be mine because she let me kiss her
lips, and that kiss was a solemn betrothal.” There came to his mind
the words of a beautiful, quaint old German ballad, “Schön Rothant,”
wherein a lover says: “Every leaf in the forest knows that I have
kissed her lips.”
“She will be mine,” he cried aloud. “I would work for her twice
seven years, as Jacob did. I would be content to love her my whole
life through, satisfied if in death she rewarded me with but one smile.
I love her so that if I lay dead with green grass and forest leaves
heaped over me and she came to my grave and whispered my
name, I should hear her.”
The Aldens were a quick, passionate race. They did nothing by
halves. They knew no limit, no bound, no measure to their loves or
hates. With many men love is a pastime, a pleasing, light
occupation, a relief from the severity of daily toil. With others it is
deeper and more serious—yet one life holds many; but with men of
Sir Ronald’s stamp it is life or death, rapture or despair, highest
happiness or deepest woe.
For one whole week his suspense lasted. He rode over every day
to Leeholme, and every evening returned with the one question still
unasked, for the park was full of visitors and Lady Hermione always
engaged.
At length he resolved to write. He said to himself that he could
not bear another week such as this past had been; that even despair
itself would be easier to bear than suspense. He smiled as he said
the words, feeling sure there would be neither suspense nor sorrow
for him.
CHAPTER XIV.
A THUNDERBOLT.
It is seldom that a tragedy happens all at once; there are

circumstances that lead up to it. These circumstances are seldom as
exciting as the tragedy itself. The details of what happened before
the strange, sad story of Lady Alden’s death thrilled all England, are
necessary, though not exciting, in order to make other events
understood.
Sir Ronald decided upon writing to Lady Hermione. He made one
last effort; he rode over to Leeholme one beautiful August morning,
when the golden corn stood in huge sheafs in the meadows, and the
fruit hung ripe on the orchard walls. It was just as usual. Lady
Hermione was in the grounds with a party of young people. Lady
Lorriston told him, and he could not do better than join them; they
were planning a visit to the Holy Well at Longston. Sir Ronald went
out into the pleasure grounds, and there, under the spreading,
fragrant shade of a large cedar, he saw a group that would have
charmed Watteau—fair-faced girls with their lovers, beautiful women
over whose stately heads more summer suns had shone, and, in the
midst of all, Lady Hermione.
“Here is Sir Ronald,” said one of the voices. Then he joined the
group under the cedar tree, and Lady Hermione greeted him with a
few measured words. How was he to know that her heart was
beating wildly; that her whole soul was moving in its deepest depths
by the pleasure of seeing him? Then the conversation became
general. He waited more than an hour. He saw plainly there was no
chance for even five minutes with his ladylove that day.
“I will go home and write to her,” he said to himself; then he held
her white hand in his own a minute while he said good-by, and a
flood of hope rushed warm and sweet through his heart when he
noted the rose-leaf flush and the trembling lips.
Was it accident that brought Clarice Severn into the broad
chestnut glade that led to the house? Other eyes might turn shyly
from his; hers grew brighter and happier, her whole face changed as
she bent forward quickly to greet him.
“I was just wondering whether we should see you to-day or not,
Sir Ronald,” she said.
“It would be a dark, dreary day that would not bring me to
Leeholme,” he said; and, again, in her foolish hope and foolish love,
she chose to think the words referred to herself.
“Clarice,” he said, his deep voice broken with emotion, “you know
what brings me here day after day.”
Her heart beat so quickly she could hardly reply. Believe me,
nothing misled her but her own vanity and her own love.
“I know,” she said, faintly.
“I shall not bear my suspense much longer,” he continued; “I am
going to try my fate. I am sure you wish me godspeed.”
“He is going to ask me to be his wife,” she said to herself; but
even then, in the delirium of happiness which that thought gave her,
she wondered why he could not ask her there and then.
“Thank you, Clarice; the good wishes of a pure-hearted woman
always seem to me like prayers.” Then he passed on, and was soon
out of sight.
Sir Ronald rode home again; he looked at the familiar trees as he
passed; he smiled at the nodding branches and the fluttering leaves.
“When next I pass you by,” he said, “I shall know my fate.”
He could not rest until that letter was written; all the inspiration of
his love was upon him as he wrote it; the burning words that had
risen so often from his heart to his lips found life; there was no delay
in the choice of his expressions. Never since Adam wooed Eve
among the bowers of Paradise was love more deeply or more
strongly told. A doubt must have crossed his mind once, for he said:
“If you say me nay, Hermione, I shall not importune you—a
queen has the right of denial to her subject if the favor asked be too
great. You have that same right over me. I shall not importune you,
sweet. I shall not drag my prayer again and again to your feet to be
denied; but you will mar my whole life, and change it into bitterest
anguish. But I need not write this. What are the little birds singing to
me? That my darling would never have let me kiss her lips until she
meant to be mine.”
Hour after hour passed, and he was still writing. It seemed to him
that he was in her actual presence, and the sweet, fiery words
flowed on. Then, when the letter was finished, it was too large to be
sent by post.
“An envelope of that size and thickness would be sure to attract
attention,” he said to himself. “I will send it by a messenger.”
So his most trusty servant was dispatched to Leeholme Park,
with orders to deliver the packet into Lady Hermione’s own hand, but
not to wait for the answer. But Lady Hermione was not at home, and,
after waiting some hours, the groom, beginning to fear Sir Ronald’s
displeasure, gave it to the lady’s maid, who, duly impressed by him
as to its importance, laid it on Lady Hermione’s dressing-table,
feeling sure that her mistress would see it at once when she entered
the room.
That same evening, keeping in mind what the groom had said to
her, the maid asked her mistress if she had found the small paper
parcel on her toilet-table. Lady Hermione smiled.
“Yes, I have it,” she replied, and then her maid forgot the whole
matter.
All that day Sir Ronald waited impatiently for his answer. No day
had ever seemed to him half so long before.
“She will send a messenger,” he said; “she will not keep me in
suspense until morning.”
But, though he watched and waited, no messenger came. He
sent away his dinner untasted; he debated within himself whether he
should ride over to Leeholme or not, and he decided no—that would
not do at all.
How he lived through the night he did not know; no rest or sleep
came to him. But the morning brought him a letter, and that letter
contained his death warrant. He saw at once it was from Leeholme
Park, and he held it for some minutes unopened in his hand.
“It is either life or death,” he said to himself, “and brave men know
how to die.”
He took it with him to his favorite nook, the shade of a large lime
tree, known as “King Charles’ Tree,” from the fact of the Merrie
Monarch having once hidden there. He opened it there, and from
that moment the sun of earthly happiness set for Ronald Alden.
“Believe me,” the letter began, “that it costs me even
more to refuse your prayer, Sir Ronald, than it will cost you
to read that refusal. My whole heart grieves for you; but I
cannot be your wife. I have not the love to give you that a
woman should give to the man she marries. I am your
friend for life.
“Hermione Lorriston.”
Not many lines to break a man’s heart, and destroy the whole
happiness of his life, but Sir Ronald sat hour after hour under the
lime tree, and the summer sun never shone, nor did the flowers
bloom for him again.
CHAPTER XV.
WITHOUT HOPE.
The sun shone round him, the flowers bloomed fair, the sweet
south wind whispered of all bright things; but Sir Ronald never raised
his despairing face to the summer heavens.
Life and hope were crushed within him; he did not care to rise
from the ground where he had flung himself in the first wild paroxysm
of grief; he had some vague hope that he might die there; but it takes
much to kill a strong man.
The sunbeams grew warm; the day had its duties. He had
arranged to see his steward at noon. A tenant farmer had promised
to wait upon him concerning the renewal of a lease. Life was too full
of occupation for despair. He rose at last, and looked his future in the
face.
“She has killed me,” he said to himself; “surely as ever man was
slain.”
He crushed the letter in his hands.
“She has been false to me,” he cried, in his passionate rage.
“She has lured me on to my death! She has duped me with smiles
that meant nothing, with fair words that were all false, with looks that
were all lies! She was, I believed, the truest, the fairest, the purest of
women; yet she has duped me! She who had, I believed, the white
wings of an angel, let me kiss her lips, and yet never meant to marry
me. Does the curse of coquetry and falseness lie upon all women, I
wonder?”
Passionate anger flamed in his face; his eyes flashed, his lips
quivered. The Alden rage was strong upon him. Hot words leaped to
his lips, but he would not utter them.
“I shall not curse her,” he said; “the ruin of a man’s life shall be at
her door, but I will say nothing harsh of her. She was my first, last,
and only love.”
He turned away and re-entered the house. He looked like a man
who had suddenly aged twenty years, on whom the blight of some
awful trouble had fallen, whose life had been suddenly checked in its
full, sweet flow, and frozen into living death.
For some days Sir Ronald did not leave Aldenmere; he was too
miserable to either care to see friends or strangers. His thoughts
were all steeped in bitterness. At one time he thought he would go
abroad; then he said to himself: “No; she shall not have the triumph
of seeing she has driven me from her! she shall never boast that for
love of her an Alden flew from his home.”
Then business called him from home, and people told each other
that Sir Ronald Alden had been very ill, he looked so changed from
his brighter, better self. On the first day, as he was riding to a near
town, he met the party from Leeholme. There was no time to avoid
them, or he would have turned away. With the keen eyes of love, he
saw Lady Hermione. She was riding with Kenelm Eyrle by her side.
He was obliged, by every rule of courtesy, to speak to her. He
reined in his horse by her side.
“Good-morning, Lady Hermione,” he said, gravely. “I did not
expect the pleasure of seeing you.”
“We waited half an hour for you,” said Mr. Eyrle. “Did you not
promise to join us in an excursion to the Holy Well?”
“I do not remember making such a promise,” he said; and then he
could not control his longing desire to look at her. He raised his eyes
to her face, and was astonished at what he saw there. Some great
change had come over that brilliant beauty. Her face was pale and
grave—stern as one who is nerved to go through a disagreeable
duty. The smiles that had been wont to play round her sweet, proud
lips had died away. There was no light in the eyes that met his so
coldly.
She bowed coolly in reply to his greeting, but spoke no word. He
saw her draw her slender figure to its full height; then she said
something to a lady near her. Sir Ronald felt as though a sharp
sword had pierced his heart.
“She hates me,” he thought; “she is trying to show me how utterly
indifferent she is to me. Ah! Hermione, there was no need to be cruel
to me. I know now that you will not love me. I shall not ask you
again, sweet; I shall dree my weird alone.”
She was so still. The bright, gay words that charmed him were no
longer heard. He looked at her again, and saw an expression of
weariness on her face, as though she were tired and not happy.
Bitter thoughts crowded upon him. He loved her so that he could
have flung himself under her horse’s feet, yet he felt that she had
ruined his life, and, deep in his heart, he cursed the coquetry that
had been his blight.
He bade her good-morning in the coolest of words. She barely
responded; yet, to his surprise, he saw she had grown white to the
very lips.
“How she must dislike me,” he thought, “that the sight of me is so
distasteful to her. How utterly false she was when she offered to be
my friend for life, yet my only crime has been to love her.”
It was Lord Lorriston who rode up to him next, with a hearty
greeting.
“Where have you been, Sir Ronald? We all thought you were lost.
My wife and Lady Hermione were growing quite anxious, fearing you
were ill.”
“They are very kind,” he replied, thinking in his heart how quick
were all women to deceive. She had received an offer of marriage
from him, to which she had replied in barely courteous terms. She
knew perfectly well why he never came near Leeholme, why he
shunned and avoided them all; yet she had listened to the wonder
expressed, and had said nothing. To the parents who trusted her so
implicitly she had made no mention of a fact that a true and loving
daughter seldom conceals.
She was false to every one alike, and yet he had believed her so
good, so true, so earnest. Her face was so fair and pure; yet the shy,
timid looks she had given him were all false as her words.
He said little in reply to the friendly greetings that met him on all
sides. Clarice was the last to address him. She was somewhat
behind the other riders, and Captain Thringston was by her side. She
held out her hands to him with a look that said more than a volume
of words.
“I have been wishing to see you,” she said, in a low voice; and
then a flush crimsoned the proud, passionate beauty of her face.
Captain Thringston seemed to have an instinctive idea that he
would be quite as agreeable to Miss Severn if he rode a little ahead.
“I hardly know if I dare speak to you, though we are old
playfellows, Sir Ronald,” she began.
“There is very little that you cannot say to me, Clarice,” he said,
kindly.
“Dare I tell you that I know—that is, I can guess—what has
happened, and that you have my truest, warmest and deepest
sympathy?”
“You are very kind,” he replied, “but I would rather not discuss the
matter with you; it is best left alone.”
“Do not be proud to me, Ronald. Remember, we played together
as children. Do you think, after all these years, you could have a pain
I did not feel, or a happiness I did not share with you?”
Her beautiful eyes were bright with tears as she spoke; he
hurriedly clasped her hand.
“God bless you, Clarice! you are very kind, but I cannot bear it.”
And then he galloped hastily away.
CHAPTER XVI.
“THE ALDEN PRIDE.”
Time did not bring comfort to Sir Ronald Alden; the blow he had
received was too heavy and too cruel. He felt not only annoyed, but
aggrieved, that Clarice knew his secret.
“Lady Hermione must have said something to her about it. Most
probably all young ladies boast to each other how many men they
cause to suffer; yet one would have thought her as far above that
kind of feeling as the clouds are above the earth.”
It was some relief to him to know that no one else appeared to
guess the story. The “Alden pride” was strong in him. It was hard
enough to bear; it would have been doubly hard if the world had
known it.
Lord and Lady Lorriston continued for some time to send him
invitations, to wonder that he did not call, to express that wonder to
him.
It so happened that an eminent writer paid a visit to Leeholme,
one whose acquaintance all men were proud and honored to make.
Lord Lorriston immediately issued invitations for a large dinner party.
“I consider myself a public benefactor,” he said, laughingly, “in
giving men the opportunity of seeing that great genius of the age.
Perhaps I have been mistaken over Sir Ronald. Send him cards; he
will be sure to come.”
But, to his surprise, among all the letters of acceptance was a
note from Sir Ronald, short and cold, declining, with thanks, the
invitation, but giving no reason why.
Lord Lorriston handed it to his wife. They were at breakfast, and
Lady Hermione, usually silent and grave, was with them.
“Sir Ronald declines, you see. What can be the matter with him? I
have known him ever since he was a child, and he chooses to treat
me with distant, scant courtesy. I cannot understand it.”
Suddenly an idea seemed to occur to him.
“Hermione,” he said, “have you given Sir Ronald any cause for
his strange conduct?”
She blushed crimson, and turned her face, lest he should read
something she did not wish him to see.
“I do not know that I have given him any cause of offense,” she
replied.
Lord Lorriston looked earnestly at his daughter, then said no
more.
“I am very sorry,” said Lady Hermione. “There is no one I like
better than Sir Ronald.”
Lord Lorriston did not make any further attempt at continuing the
friendship of Sir Ronald.
“He evidently avoids me—wishes to cease all acquaintance—he
has his reasons for it, even though I know nothing at all about them.”
And so, in course of time, the acquaintance gradually died out.
If by accident Sir Ronald saw any of the Leeholme Park people,
he simply bowed, raised his hat, and rode on. If he found himself in
the same room, he was courteous, calm and cold, as he would have
been to any stranger. It was so gradually done that it escaped all
notice and observation.
But if, on the one hand, all intimacy with Leeholme Park died
away, Sir Ronald accepted several invitations to Mrs. Severn’s. He
remembered how kind Clarice had been to him, how her eyes had
rained down kindness and affection upon him. There was something
soothing to the Alden pride in remembering that, if one beautiful
woman had rejected him, another was kind and gentle to him—
thought more of him than all the world besides. Of that much he was
sure. It was pleasant to ride over to Mount Severn in the warm
summer sunlight to meet with a welcome from the stately, kindly
mistress, to read a warmer welcome still in the passionate, beautiful
face that seemed only to brighten in his presence.
Yet all the time, while he tried to find comfort in bright smiles and
in every pursuit to which he could possibly devote himself, he knew
that, day by day, he loved with a deeper and more passionate love.
He left Aldenmere for a time and went up to London. On this part
of his life Sir Ronald never afterward liked to reflect. He did nothing,
perhaps, unbecoming to a gentleman—he did not seek oblivion in
low society—but he lived a life of incessant gayety. He went to balls,
operas, theatres, soirées; he seldom saw home before daylight, and
he spent money as though it had been so much dross.
Surely, amid this glitter and dazzle, amid this turmoil of pleasure,
leaving him no time for thought, he would forget her. Fair faces
smiled upon him, siren voices spoke in honeyed accents. Sometimes
in the morning dawn, when the sky was full of pearly tints and faint
rose-clouds, he would go home and look at his haggard wistful face
in the glass.
“I am forgetting her,” he would say, exultingly; and then, Heaven
be merciful to him! when his tired eyes were closed in slumber, her
face, so fresh, so sweet and pure, would be there, looking at him,
and he would cry out with a voice full of anguish, that he was
haunted and could not escape her.
The Aldens never did anything by halves. If they loved, it was
with passionate love; if they hated—well, Heaven help us all from
being the victims of such hate.
There was something pitiful in the way this strong man struggled
against his fate, in the way he fought against the passion that had
half maddened him. When the unflagging round of gayety had tired
him he returned home. He was then but the shadow of the young
and handsome lord of Aldenmere.
“As well be haunted at home as elsewhere,” he said to himself; “I
cannot escape my fate.”
Sometimes a wild impulse came over him, urging him to go to her
again, to plead his cause with her, to tell her all the passionate,
desolate anguish of the past few months, to pray to her as men pray
for their lives.
But he remembered what he had said to her, that if she sent him
away he should not return to pray his prayer again. All the pride of
his proud race came to his aid. She had accepted his loving words,
she had taken a kiss that was sacred as a betrothal from his lips,
and she had rejected him.
He would not plead to her again; let his ruin and misery lie at her
door; it should never be told that he had stooped as no Alden before
him had done.
Yet had she but smiled upon him, he would have knelt like the
humblest of slaves at her feet.
CHAPTER XVII.
TWO YEARS AFTERWARD.
Sir Ronald went home again. He found little or no change in that

quiet neighborhood. One of the visits he paid was to Mount Severn,
where he met with a welcome that would have gladdened any man’s
heart. Clarice did not attempt to conceal her delight; her eyes
beamed, her face brightened, her hands stole tremblingly into his.
“How long you have been away!” she said. “This is the dreariest
summer I can remember.”
Yet it was only two months since he had gone up to London to try
whether gayety would cure him.
They made him so welcome it was like coming home. Mrs.
Severn pitied him because he looked ill. She placed him in the
sunniest corner of the room; she made him stay for a récherché little
dinner. Clarice talked to him and sang to him. She poured out the
treasures of her intellect like water at his feet. Another man would
have yielded almost helplessly to the charm, but his haggard face
never changed, no smile came to his stern, gray lips.
He had vowed to himself before he entered the house that
nothing could induce him to mention Lady Hermione’s name, yet he
longed to hear it from other lips. Clarice told him of the Gordons and
the Thringstons, but the name he longed to hear was not mentioned.
He perceived that Clarice purposely avoided it, and wondered why.
Was Lady Hermione ill? Had anything happened to her?
At last he could endure the suspense no longer, and he said,
“You say nothing of the Lorristons. Are they well?”
Her beautiful face flushed, and her eyes rested on him for one-
half minute with an expression he could not understand.

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Marine Fog Challenges and

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Oceanic Internal Tides Observations Analysis and

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More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10176

Marine Fog: Challenges

ISSN 2194-5217 ISSN 2194-5225 (electronic)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016958809

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017

Printed on acid-free paper

This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature

10 Ensemble Fog Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477

Clive E. Dorman Integrative Oceanography Division, Scripps Institution of

Eric M. Wilcox Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute,

Darko Koračin and Clive E. Dorman

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017 1

which reveals model uncertainty and introduces probabilistic forecasts of fog.

Chapter 9. Modeling and Forecasting of Marine Fog

Clive E. Dorman, John Mejia, Darko Koračin, and Daniel McEvoy

Abstract Herein, an analysis is presented of the world’s marine fog distribution

C.E. Dorman (*)

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017 7

United States was as the Comprehensive Ocean-atmosphere Data Set (COADS).

2 Present Weather Observations Over the Sea

2.1 Data Source

2.2 Methodology for the Fog Event Data Base

This study focuses almost exclusively on ICOADS “present weather,” which

Table 2.1 Present weather codes related to fog

checking measurements, and then assigning a two-digit code from 01 to

2.3 Percent of Occurrence and Adjustment

of total number of present weather observations is increased by one. During this

2.4 Data Base Specifics: Reporting Codes

2.5 Frequency Distribution of the Weather Codes

Table 2.2 (continued)

a x 105 Number of Observations, JJA, All Oceans

b x 105 Number of Observations, DJF, All Oceans

2.6 Zonal and Seasonal Distributions of Present Weather

The ww code numbers seem to shift appropriately when concentrating on latitude

2.7 Fog Occurrence Uncertainty

a x 104 Polar Band, > 60N, JJA

x 104 Temperate Band, 40 N to 60 N, JJA

x 104 Subtropical Band, 20 N to 40 N, JJA

x 104 Tropical Band, 10 S to 10 N, JJA

b x 104 Polar Band, > 60N, DJF

x 104 Temperate Band, 40 N to 60 N, DJF

x 104 Subtropical Band, 20 N to 40 N, DJF

x 104 Tropical Band, 10 S to 10 N, DJF

Standard Deviation (%) 25

3 Worldwide Marine Fog Occurrence

3.1 Mean Quarterly World Ocean Analyses: Number

It is seldom that a tragedy happens all at once; there are

Sir Ronald went home again. He found little or no change in that

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