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Environment
Earth’s health failing in seven out of eight key
measures, say scientists
Groundbreaking analysis of safety and justice hopes to inform next generation
of sustainability policy
Jonathan Watts
¥ jonathanwatts
Wed 31 May 2023 16.51 8ST
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Human activity has pushed the world into the danger zone in seven out
of eight newly demarcated indicators of planetary safety and justice,
according to a groundbreaking analysis of the Earth’s wellbeing.
Going beyond climate disruption, the report by the Earth Commission
group of scientists presents disturbing evidence that our planet faces
growing crises of water availability, nutrient loading, ecosystem
maintenance and aerosol pollution. These pose threats to the stability of
life-support systems and worsen social equality.The study, which was published in Nature on Wednesday, is the most
ambitious attempt yet to combine vital signs of planetary health with
indicators of human welfare.
Prof Johan Rockstrém, one of the lead authors, said: “It is an attempt to
do an interdisciplinary science assessment of the entire people-planet
system, which is something we must do given the risks we face.
“We have reached what I call a saturation point where we hit the ceiling
of the biophysical capacity of the Earth system to remain in its stable
state. We are approaching tipping points, we are seeing more and more
permanent damage of life-support systems at the global scale.”
The Earth Commission, which was established by dozens of the world’s
leading research institutions, wants the analysis to form the scientific
backbone of the next generation of sustainability targets and practices,
which extend beyond the current focus on climate to include other
indices and environmental justice. It hopes that cities and businesses
will adopt the targets as a way to measure the impact of their activities.
The study sets out a series of “safe and just” benchmarks for the planet
that can be compared to the vital signs for the human body. Instead of
pulse, temperature and blood pressure, it looks at indicators such as
water flow, phosphorus use and land conversion.
The boundaries are based ona synthesis of previous studies by
universities and UN science groups, such as the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy
Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.
The situation is grave in almost every category. Setting global
benchmarks is challenging. For climate, the world has already adopted a
target to keep global heating as low as possible between 1.5C to 2C above
pre-industrial levels. The Earth Commission notes that this is a
dangerous level because many people are already badly affected by the
extreme heat, droughts and floods that come with the current level of
about 1.2C. They say a safe and just climate target is 1C, which would
require a massive effort to draw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
They note it is impossible to stabilise the climate without protecting
ecosystems.
To achieve this, the “safe and just” boundary is for 50to 60% of the
world to be home to predominantly natural ecosystems. The reality,
however, is that only 45to 50% of the planet has an intact ecosystem. Inhuman-altered areas, such as farms, cities and industrial parks, the
commission says at least 20 to 25% of the land needs to be devoted to
semi-natural habitats such as parks, allotments and clusters of trees in
order to maintain ecosystem services such as pollination, water quality
regulation, pest and disease control, and the health and mental health
benefits provided by access to nature. However, about two-thirds of
altered landscapes fail to meet this goal.
Another target is for aerosol pollution, which accumulates from car
exhausts, factories, and coal, oil and gas power plants. At a global level,
the report has focussed on minimising the imbalance of aerosol
concentrations between the northern and southern hemispheres, which
can disrupt the monsoon season and other weather patterns. At a local
level, for example in cities, it follows the World Health Organization in
establishing a boundary of 15 micrograms per cubic metre mean annual
exposure to small particulate matter, known as PM2.5, which can
damage the lungs and heart. This is an issue of social justice because
poorer, often predominantly black communities tend to suffer the worst
results as many are found in vulnerable areas.
The benchmark for surface water is that no more than 20% of the flow
of rivers and streams should be blocked in any catchment area because
this leads to declining water quality and habit loss for freshwater
species. This “safe boundary” has already been exceeded on a third of
the world’s land by hydroelectric dams, drainage systems and
construction. The story is similarly poor for groundwater systems,
where the safe boundary is that aquifers are not depleted faster than
they can be replenished. However, 47% of the world’s river basins are
being run down at an alarming rate. This is a big problem in population
centres such as Mexico City and areas of intensive agricultural such as,
the North China Plain.
Nutrients are another area of concern because farmers in wealthier
countries are spraying more nitrogen and phosphorus than the plants
and land are able to absorb. This temporarily increases yields, but leads
to runoffs into water systems that become suffocated by algae blooms
and unhealthy for humans to drink. Global equity is the key here, the
report says. Poorer nations need more fertilisers, while rich nations
need to cut the surplus. Balanced out, the “safe and just boundary” in
this case is a global surplus of 61m tonnes of nitrogen and about 6m
tonnes of phosphorus.‘The authors say the planetary diagnosis is grim but not yet beyond
hope, though the time for a remedy is running out.
Joyeeta Gupta, the Earth Commission co-chair and professor of
environment and development in the global south at the University of
Amsterdam, said: “Our doctor would say the Earth is really quite sick
right now in many areas. And this is affecting the people living on Earth.
We must not just address symptoms, but also the causes.”
David Obura, another member of the commission and director of
coastal oceans research and development in the Indian Ocean, said the
policy framework was already in place to get back within safe
boundaries through the goals of existing UN climate and biodiversity
agreements. But he stressed that consumption choices also needed to
play an important role.
“There are a number of medicines we can take, but we also need
lifestyle changes - less meat, more water, and a more balanced diet,” he
said. “It is possible to do it. Nature’s regenerative powers are robust ...
but we need a lot more commitment.”
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Topics
Environment
Climate crisis / Global research / Farming / Global health / Water / news
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