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International Series in
Operations Research & Management Science
Bhimasankaram Pochiraju
Sridhar Seshadri Editors
Essentials
of Business
Analytics
An Introduction to the Methodology
and its Applications
International Series in Operations Research
& Management Science
Volume 264
Series Editor
Camille C. Price
Stephen F. Austin State University, TX, USA
Essentials of Business
Analytics
An Introduction to the Methodology
and its Applications
123
Editors
Bhimasankaram Pochiraju Sridhar Seshadri
Applied Statistics and Computing Lab Gies College of Business
Indian School of Business University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
Hyderabad, Telangana, India Champaign, IL, USA
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Professor Bhimasankaram: With the divine
blessings of Bhagawan Sri Sri Sri Satya Sai
Baba, I dedicate this book to my parents—Sri
Pochiraju Rama Rao and Smt. Venkata
Ratnamma.
Sridhar Seshadri: I dedicate this book to
the memory of my parents, Smt. Ranganayaki
and Sri Desikachari Seshadri, my
father-in-law, Sri Kalyana Srinivasan
Ayodhyanath, and my dear friend,
collaborator and advisor, Professor
Bhimasankaram.
Contents
1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Sridhar Seshadri
Part I Tools
2 Data Collection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Sudhir Voleti
3 Data Management—Relational Database Systems (RDBMS) . . . . . . . . . 41
Hemanth Kumar Dasararaju and Peeyush Taori
4 Big Data Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Peeyush Taori and Hemanth Kumar Dasararaju
5 Data Visualization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
John F. Tripp
6 Statistical Methods: Basic Inferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Vishnuprasad Nagadevara
7 Statistical Methods: Regression Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Bhimasankaram Pochiraju and Hema Sri Sai Kollipara
8 Advanced Regression Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
Vishnuprasad Nagadevara
9 Text Analytics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
Sudhir Voleti
vii
viii Contents
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 965
Disclaimer
This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded
sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information,
but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of
all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have
attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication
and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been
obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let
us know so we may rectify in any future reprint.
xi
Acknowledgements
This book is the outcome of a truly collaborative effort amongst many people who
have contributed in different ways. We are deeply thankful to all the contributing
authors for their ideas and support. The book belongs to them. This book would not
have been possible without the help of Deepak Agrawal. Deepak helped in every
way, from editorial work, solution support, programming help, to coordination with
authors and researchers, and many more things. Soumithri Mamidipudi provided
editorial support, helped with writing summaries of every chapter, and proof-edited
the probability and statistics appendix and cases. Padmavati Sridhar provided edi-
torial support for many chapters. Two associate alumni—Ramakrishna Vempati and
Suryanarayana Ambatipudi—of the Certificate Programme in Business Analytics
(CBA) at Indian School of Business (ISB) helped with locating contemporary
examples and references. They suggested examples for the Retail Analytics and
Supply Chain Analytics chapters. Ramakrishna also contributed to the draft of the
Big Data chapter. Several researchers in the Advanced Statistics and Computing
Lab (ASC Lab) at ISB helped in many ways. Hema Sri Sai Kollipara provided
support for the cases, exercises, and technical and statistics support for various
chapters. Aditya Taori helped with examples for the machine learning chapters
and exercises. Saurabh Jugalkishor contributed examples for the machine learning
chapters. The ASC Lab’s researchers and Hemanth Kumar provided technical
support in preparing solutions for various examples referred in the chapters. Ashish
Khandelwal, Fellow Program student at ISB, helped with the chapter on Linear
Regression. Dr. Kumar Eswaran and Joy Mustafi provided additional thoughts for
the Unsupervised Learning chapter. The editorial team comprising Faith Su, Mathew
Amboy and series editor Camille Price gave immense support during the book
proposal stage, guidance during editing, production, etc. The ASC Lab provided
the research support for this project.
We thank our families for the constant support during the 2-year long project.
We thank each and every person associated with us during the beautiful journey of
writing this book.
xiii
Contributors
xv
xvi Contributors
Sridhar Seshadri
Business analytics is the science of posing and answering data questions related to
business. Business analytics has rapidly expanded in the last few years to include
tools drawn from statistics, data management, data visualization, and machine learn-
ing. There is increasing emphasis on big data handling to assimilate the advances
made in data sciences. As is often the case with applied methodologies, business
analytics has to be soundly grounded in applications in various disciplines and
business verticals to be valuable. The bridge between the tools and the applications
are the modeling methods used by managers and researchers in disciplines such as
finance, marketing, and operations. This book provides coverage of all three aspects:
tools, modeling methods, and applications.
The purpose of the book is threefold: to fill the void in the graduate-level study
materials for addressing business problems in order to pose data questions, obtain
optimal business solutions via analytics theory, and ground the solution in practice.
In order to make the material self-contained, we have endeavored to provide ample
use of cases and data sets for practice and testing of tools. Each chapter comes
with data, examples, and exercises showing students what questions to ask, how to
apply the techniques using open source software, and how to interpret the results. In
our approach, simple examples are followed with medium to large applications and
solutions. The book can also serve as a self-study guide to professionals who wish
to enhance their knowledge about the field.
The distinctive features of the book are as follows:
• The chapters are written by experts from universities and industry.
• The major software used are R, Python, MS Excel, and MYSQL. These are all
topical and widely used in the industry.
S. Seshadri ()
Gies College of Business, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Champaign, IL, USA
e-mail: sridhar@illinois.edu
• Extreme care has been taken to ensure continuity from one chapter to the next.
The editors have attempted to make sure that the content and flow are similar in
every chapter.
• In Part A of the book, the tools and modeling methodology are developed in
detail. Then this methodology is applied to solve business problems in various
verticals in Part B. Part C contains larger case studies.
• The Appendices cover required material on Probability theory, R, and Python, as
these serve as prerequisites for the main text.
The structure of each chapter is as follows:
• Each chapter has a business orientation. It starts with business problems, which
are transformed into technological problems. Methodology is developed to solve
the technological problems. Data analysis is done using suitable software and the
output and results are clearly explained at each stage of development. Finally, the
technological solution is transformed back to a business solution. The chapters
conclude with suggestions for further reading and a list of references.
• Exercises (with real data sets when applicable) are at the end of each chapter and
on the Web to test and enhance the understanding of the concepts and application.
• Caselets are used to illustrate the concepts in several chapters.
Data Collection: This chapter introduces the concepts of data collection and
problem formulation. Firstly, it establishes the foundation upon which the fields
of data sciences and analytics are based, and defines core concepts that will be used
throughout the rest of the book. The chapter starts by discussing the types of data
that can be gathered, and the common pitfalls that can occur when data analytics
does not take into account the nature of the data being used. It distinguishes between
primary and secondary data sources using examples, and provides a detailed
explanation of the advantages and constraints of each type of data. Following this,
the chapter details the types of data that can be collected and sorted. It discusses the
difference between nominal-, ordinal-, interval-, and ratio-based data and the ways
in which they can be used to obtain insights into the subject being studied.
The chapter then discusses problem formulation and its importance. It explains
how and why formulating a problem will impact the data that is gathered, and
thus affect the conclusions at which a research project may arrive. It describes
a framework by which a messy real-world situation can be clarified so that a
mathematical toolkit can be used to identify solutions. The chapter explains the
idea of decision-problems, which can be used to understand the real world, and
research-objectives, which can be used to analyze decision-problems.
1 Introduction 3
The chapter also details the challenges faced when collecting and collating data.
It discusses the importance of understanding what data to collect, how to collect it,
how to assess its quality, and finally the most appropriate way of collating it so that
it does not lose its value.
The chapter ends with an illustrative example of how the retailing industry might
use various sources of data in order to better serve their customers and understand
their preferences.
Data Management—Relational Database Management Systems: This chapter
introduces the idea of data management and storage. The focus of the chapter
is on relational database management systems or RDBMS. RDBMS is the most
commonly used data organization system in enterprises. The chapter introduces and
explains the ideas using MySQL, an open-source structural query language used by
many of the largest data management systems in the world.
The chapter describes the basic functions of a MySQL server, such as creating
databases, examining data tables, and performing functions and various operations
on data sets. The first set of instructions the chapter discusses is about the rules,
definition, and creation of relational databases. Then, the chapter describes how to
create tables and add data to them using MySQL server commands. It explains how
to examine the data present in the tables using the SELECT command.
Data Management—Big Data: This chapter builds on some of the concepts
introduced in the previous chapter but focuses on big data tools. It describes what
really constitutes big data and focuses on some of the big data tools. In this chapter,
the basics of big data tools such as Hadoop, Spark, and surrounding ecosystem are
presented.
The chapter begins by describing Hadoop’s uses and key features, as well as the
programs in its ecosystem that can also be used in conjunction with it. It also briefly
visits the concepts of distributed and parallel computing and big data cloud.
The chapter describes the architecture of the Hadoop runtime environment. It
starts by describing the cluster, which is the set of host machines, or nodes for
facilitating data access. It then moves on to the YARN infrastructure, which is
responsible for providing computational resources to the application. It describes
two main elements of the YARN infrastructure—the Resource Manager and the
Node Manager. It then details the HDFS Federation, which provides storage,
and also discusses other storage solutions. Lastly, it discusses the MapReduce
framework, which is the software layer.
The chapter then describes the functions of MapReduce in detail. MapReduce
divides tasks into subtasks, which it runs in parallel in order to increase efficiency. It
discusses the manner in which MapReduce takes lists of input data and transforms
them into lists of output data, by implementing a “map” process and a “reduce”
process, which it aggregates. It describes in detail the process steps that MapReduce
takes in order to produce the output, and describes how Python can be used to create
a MapReduce process for a word count program.
The chapter briefly describes Spark and an application using Spark. It concludes
with a discussion about cloud storage. The chapter makes use of Cloudera virtual
machine (VM) distributable to demonstrate different hands-on exercises.
4 S. Seshadri
Data Visualization: This chapter discusses how data is visualized and the way
that visualization can be used to aid in analysis. It starts by explaining that humans
use visuals to understand information, and that using visualizations incorrectly can
lead to mistaken conclusions. It discusses the importance of visualization as a
cognitive aid and the importance of working memory in the brain. It emphasizes
the role of data visualization in reducing the load on the reader.
The chapter details the six meta-rules of data visualization, which are as follows:
use the most appropriate chart, directly represent relationships between data, refrain
from asking the viewer to compare differences in area, never use color on top of
color, keep within the primal perceptions of the viewer, and chart with integrity.
Each rule is expanded upon in the chapter. The chapter discusses the kinds of
graphs and tables available to a visualizer, the advantages and disadvantages of 3D
visualization, and the best practices of color schemes.
Statistical Methods—Basic Inferences: This chapter introduces the fundamental
concepts of statistical inferences, such as population and sample parameters,
hypothesis testing, and analysis of variance. It begins by describing the differences
between population and sample means and variance and the methods to calculate
them. It explains the central limit theorem and its use in estimating the mean of a
population.
Confidence intervals are explained for samples in which variance is both
known and unknown. The concept of standard errors and the t- and Chi-squared
distributions are introduced. The chapter introduces hypothesis testing and the use
of statistical parameters to reject or fail to reject hypotheses. Type I and type II errors
are discussed.
Methods to compare two different samples are explained. Analysis of vari-
ance between two samples and within samples is also covered. The use of the
F-distribution in analyzing variance is explained. The chapter concludes with
discussion of when we need to compare means of a number of populations. It
explains how to use a technique called “Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)” instead
of carrying out pairwise comparisons.
Statistical Methods—Linear Regression Analysis: This chapter explains the idea
of linear regression in detail. It begins with some examples, such as predicting
newspaper circulation. It uses the examples to discuss the methods by which
linear regression obtains results. It describes a linear regression as a functional
form that can be used to understand relationships between outcomes and input
variables and perform statistical inference. It discusses the importance of linear
regression and its popularity, and explains the basic assumptions underlying linear
regression.
The modeling section begins by discussing a model in which there is only a
single regressor. It explains why a scatter-plot can be useful in understanding single-
regressor models, and the importance of visual representation in statistical inference.
It explains the ordinary least squares method of estimating a parameter, and the use
of the sum of squares of residuals as a measure of the fit of a model. The chapter then
discusses the use of confidence intervals and hypothesis testing in a linear regression
Part I
Tools
Chapter 2
Data Collection
Sudhir Voleti
1 Introduction
Collecting data is the first step towards analyzing it. In order to understand and solve
business problems, data scientists must have a strong grasp of the characteristics of
the data in question. How do we collect data? What kinds of data exist? Where
is it coming from? Before beginning to analyze data, analysts must know how to
answer these questions. In doing so, we build the base upon which the rest of our
examination follows. This chapter aims to introduce and explain the nuances of data
collection, so that we understand the methods we can use to analyze it.
In 2017, video-streaming company Netflix Inc. was worth more than $80 billion,
more than 100 times its value when it listed in 2002. The company’s current position
as the market leader in the online-streaming sector is a far cry from its humble
beginning as a DVD rental-by-mail service founded in 1997. So, what had driven
Netflix’s incredible success? What helped its shares, priced at $15 each on their
initial public offering in May 2002, rise to nearly $190 in July 2017? It is well
known that a firm’s [market] valuation is the sum total in today’s money, or the net
present value (NPV) of all the profits the firm will earn over its lifetime. So investors
reckon that Netflix is worth tens of billions of dollars in profits over its lifetime.
Why might this be the case? After all, companies had been creating television and
S. Voleti ()
Indian School of Business, Hyderabad, Telangana, India
e-mail: sudhir_voleti@isb.edu
II
AN UGLY GLIMPSE
II
Yet it was that very night after the Thorstads had gone to bed and were
sleeping in the pale light of a quiet moonlit sky, that Freda was forced to
admit that it wasn’t nonsense.
All along she had hated staying without her mother, who after all was
her reason for being here. She had to do it, however, or else abandon the
chance of getting the job as secretary to the committee. Freda herself was a
little homesick under all her excitement but, steadying her, there had come
letters from her father which urged her to make the most of any
opportunities which might come to her, which bade her make suitable and
wise friends and learn as much as she could.
One or two of the young men Freda met stood out, as being more
interesting than the others. Ted Smillie, because he was so attracted to her
from the first, had more or less intrigued her. Barbara’s obvious dislike of
the situation had forced both Ted and Freda into somewhat closer
acquaintanceship than would have naturally developed, but they both
worked against Barbara’s interference. There was in Ted, for all his
amorousness, a real feeling for health and beauty. That drew him to Freda
and her to him and there was enough in the glamour of being chosen by the
most competed-for man as worthy of attention, to make Freda feel rather
strongly in his favor. If he had been rude to her, as he might have been to
the country guest of the Brownley’s, she would have seen him more clearly,
seen his weakness, his impressionability, read the laziness of his mind, seen
the signs of self-indulgence which were already beginning to show on his
handsome face. She would have seen him as too “soft” of mind and body.
But he was frankly at her feet and it would have taken an older head than
Freda’s to analyze too clearly past that during those first few weeks.
It was not the first attention she had had, of course. There were always
young men who were ready to be nice to Freda in Mohawk. But much as
they had liked her they had not, as she would have said, “made love to her.”
Ted did that. In his own way, he was good at it and Freda was collecting
experiences and naïve in spite of her power to get a perspective on her own
situation. He had singled Freda out as capable of giving him a fresher thrill
than any of the girls of his own “crowd.” And he had ended by being
pushed a little more than he expected by his own emotions. The prospect of
Freda’s return to Mohawk had annoyed him. He had felt that if she went
now, it would be an incomplete experience. He wanted more than he had
had. Freda had been pleasant, had been more than pleasant, been frank
enough in showing how much she liked him. But he was used to more
abandonment in the girls he knew—more freedom of caresses. He wasn’t
quite sure how far he wanted to go and of course he had no intention of
marrying anybody, certainly not Freda. But he was unsatisfied.
Mr. and Mrs. Brownley had gone to Chicago the day after Mrs. Thorstad
had gone home and the three girls were alone in the house with the servants.
There had been a gay party at a hotel ballroom and at one o’clock the three
girls had left the hotel with their escorts. Ted had his small car and Freda
had wanted him to take Barbara home. But Barbara had demurred, strangely
enough. She was going in the big car with the others, she said.
Barbara had been making life hard for Freda all day. Wherever they had
been she had managed to make Freda miserable. When the older Brownleys
were home, and when her mother was with her, Freda had never been so
completely at Barbara’s mercy as she was to-day. Allie, her usual ally, had
suddenly fallen away too. The fact was that Allie, having pressed her
mother for the purchase of the new runabout, had been put off on the
ground that her father said it was too expensive and on the further ground
that Freda’s visit was not over and that anyway Mrs. Brownley had made no
definite promise. Allie was disgruntled and the enthusiasm she had had for
Freda having run its brief course, like most of Allie’s enthusiasms, she was
willing to lend some slight support to Barbara’s evident ennui with their
guest. All through luncheon Barbara had engineered an extremely rude
conversation about things and places which were entirely foreign to Freda.
Not once had she let her guest slip into the conversation. She had misled
Freda deliberately into wearing her flame colored satin dress to a very
informal afternoon affair and appeared herself, like every one else, in the
most simple suit, making Freda feel foolishly over dressed. It was a little
thing but it pricked Freda. At dinner she had asked some people to come in
whom she knew would follow her lead and they had again left Freda high
and dry on the conversational sands. It had not been a pleasant day and even
as they danced, she and Ted, that evening, Freda felt Barbara’s eyes rather
scornfully on her and guessed at the little tide of innuendo that was being
set in motion. She knew Barbara’s ways by this time. She could not stand it
another day, she vowed. In the morning she would see Mrs. Flandon or go
to a hotel or back to Mohawk.
It was clear that the others had not arrived when they drove up under the
Brownley porte-cochère where a single light was burning. Freda did not
want Ted to come in. She wanted to make her escape to bed before Barbara
might arrive and make her a further target. Besides it was clear that Ted had
been drinking and that he was most amorous. But he was insistent. The
others would be along in a minute and he wanted to see one of the boys, he
said.
They went into the long drawing-room. A single standing lamp was lit
beside a big divan and at Freda’s gesture as if she would turn on more, Ted
caught her hand.
“Quite enough light,” he said. “Come sit down.”
His methods were not as subtle as usual and they frightened Freda. But
she thought it wiser not to quarrel with him and sat down obediently beside
him on the divan—much too close for her taste.
“You aren’t really going away, are you, Freda?”
“I can’t stay forever. My welcome’s wearing a little thin.”
She tried to pull away from that encircling arm but he would not have it.
His strength had surprised her before, and she had not before minded his
demonstrations. To-night she felt them as different, vaguely repellent.
“Please don’t, Ted.”
“I’m crazy about you, Freda. I’ve never seen a girl like you. There aren’t
any girls like you. Never have been any. I never knew what it meant to be in
love before.”
And all the time that arm tighter, heavier. His face seemed to Freda to
thicken. She discovered that she hated it. Abruptly she wrenched herself
free. But he followed her and unfortunately she had gone to an even darker
corner.
He pulled her to him and kissed her. It was the first time he had done it
and it seemed to exhilarate him.
There followed one of the worst half hours of Freda’s life. She kept
wondering what had happened to the others. She was conscious of herself
growing disheveled. She realized that he was in earnest, that he was excited
past his own control.
In desperation she cried at him—
“But I don’t care for you at all.”
“That makes it more interesting to a man,” said Ted, gallantly. “Anyway,
I’ll never give up.”
“And,” thought Freda, suddenly, with directness, “he hasn’t said one
word about marrying.” With a kind of vague desire to sound the situation
fully, she said—
“Do you really want me to marry you?”
The drinking that Ted had done had not improved his keenness of wit.
He laughed.
“I think you could almost make me do that,” he answered, “but what’s
the use of marrying? What we want is love—you know. I sized you up at
the start. Freda—you wonderful girl—let me tell you—”
What he told her, the outlines of his plan, struck Freda with impersonal
clearness. She had an odd sense of watching the scene from the outside, as
an observer who jeered at her a little for being implicated. Similar scenes
she had read about ran through her mind. She thought of Ann Veronica and
Mr. Ramage. “He hasn’t gone quite far enough for me to actually fight
him,” she thought—and then—“I ought to ring for a servant or something—
that’s what’s always done. I’m being insulted. I ought to either faint or beat
him. I’m interested. Isn’t it shocking!”
Above all these almost subconscious thoughts her mind dealt with
practicalities. She wondered where the others were. She must get out of the
house early in the morning. She wondered if Ted would keep this up even if
the others came in.
She tried to get to the door but her movement towards escape roused him
further. It had evidently never entered his head that she really meant to
rebuff him. He caught her in his arms.
“So you see, beautiful, how easy the whole thing will be—”
He was growing noisy and she realized that she did not want the servants
to hear. After all it wasn’t her house. She saw that they had been alone for
an hour. It was past two. And then to her immense relief she heard the
limousine outside.
“The others are here,” she said to him.
“Damn the others,” he said mumblingly, and, without apology, forced
himself into his overcoat. In the hall he seemed to recover himself. Perhaps
his sense of social convention struggled and overcame his amorousness
temporarily. He went out, past the entering girls, vaguely speaking rather at
them than to them.
Nothing of what happened after that seemed quite real to Freda. She was
fairly worn out from her trying day and hour of struggle and
embarrassment. As she stood for a minute by a long window trying to
collect her thoughts, she heard the girls at the door and it flashed through
her mind to ease the disgust from her own mind by telling the whole
business. She knew how frankly these girls talked of such things among
themselves.
They came in, Barbara leading. With a quick, sharp movement Barbara
turned on all the lights and as if in a spotlight the disarrayed parts of the
room seemed to stand out, the rug in which Ted’s foot had caught and
which he had kicked aside, the several chairs at unfamiliar angles, the divan
all tossed, with pillows crushed—most of all Freda herself, hair somewhat
disheveled, cheeks angrily flushed. Allie looked a little queer as she gazed
around. Barbara, after one scornful glance, never took her eyes off Freda.
“So you brought him here?”
“Brought him? Ted? Where were the rest of you?”
“You knew where we were. We said where we were going. We waited
and waited at the Hebley’s. Every one was wondering where you’d gone.
You and Ted Smillie—at two o’clock. But I didn’t really think you’d have
the audacity to make my mother’s house the scene of your—”
The awful thing, thought Freda, is that she doesn’t believe that. But she’s
going to pretend she believes it and it’s just as bad as if she did. Some one
had let her in for this. It looks exactly as if—she looked around and the
color swept her face again.
“You shameless girl!” Barbara went viciously on. “If my mother was
here you wouldn’t dare have done it. To think that we have to stay in the
same house—to think—come Allie—”
But Freda was roused, infuriated. The scorn of her own position, a
position which allowed her to be insulted by such a person, rose above all
else. She flung her cloak around her.
“I wouldn’t stay in your house another night,” she cried, “if I have to
sleep on a park bench all night.”
The front door closed after her. As she reached the sidewalk she heard
the door open again, her name called cautiously, heard the latch slipped.
They were leaving the door open. As if she would go back—
She went through the streets swiftly.
CHAPTER VIII
ADVENTURE