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Cocktail Investing Distilling Everyday Noise Into Clear Investment Signals For Better Returns Christopher J. Versace
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Cocktail Investing
Cocktail Investing
Distilling Everyday Noise into
Clear Investment Signals for
Better Returns
Christopher J. Versace
Lenore Elle Hawkins
Copyright © 2016 by Chris Versace and Lenore Hawkins. All rights reserved.
Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their
best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect
to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any
implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may
be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and
strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with
a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any
loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special,
incidental, consequential, or other damages.
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contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762–2974,
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Preface ix
Acknowledgments xv
Chapter 1: Money 1
Chapter 2: Getting Started 19
Chapter 3: The Economy versus the Markets 35
Chapter 4: Read the Economy Like a Pro 53
Chapter 5: The Impact of Politics and Regulation
on Investing 97
Chapter 6: Enabling and Disruptive Technologies 119
Chapter 7: Profiting from Pain 143
Chapter 8: Cocktail Thematic Investing 179
Chapter 9: Designing Your Portfolio 197
vii
viii CONTENTS
A man must defend his home, his wife, his children and his martini.
– Jackie Gleason
ix
x PREFACE
the long run. Unlike most every other book on investing, though, this
book is written the way most people like to learn, with stories that you
will find (we hope) not only informative but entertaining and relatable.
We will give you a process that will allow you to successfully
build and maintain a portfolio and avoid the all-too-common errors
caused by emotional investing. Thinking like a successful investor will
become as routine as tying your shoes, and before you know it, you’ll be
walking through the mall making mental notes of the must-have items
and the hot retailer, all without stepping foot inside a store.
We also wrote this book in such a way as to allow you to quickly
get to the heart of the material, avoiding the majority of the related
stories, although you’re missing out on some serious entertainment, but
we might be slightly biased here. If you want to read just the bones, avoid
the areas in gray. Don’t worry, we only have one shade of gray in this
book. We’ve also written up chapter summaries that highlight the key
points and finish every chapter with a Bottom Line section to call out
key concepts.
We will talk about how to find specific investments, but we
will not talk about theories on what combinations of investments you
ought to have in your portfolio, as that is highly dependent on each
individual’s circumstance. That being said, here are a few good rules of
thumb to keep in mind as you build an investment portfolio:
talk about need for liquidity, a term that is widely bandied about and
often misunderstood. We’ll talk more about what it means, how to
figure out just how liquid a security may be, and why you care.
• Once you’ve identified a security you want to add into your port-
folio, you need to decide if you should buy then and there or
hold off doing so. If it’s time to buy that security, how should
you do so, up to what price should you buy, at what price
would you back up the truck and buy more, and later when
the time is right, how should you sell it? We’ll cover how these
decisions can be even more important than deciding what to buy.
• Finally, when it comes to your portfolio, be cold-blooded. Fall
in love with your partner, a song, a good book, a gorgeous sunset,
or luscious Bordeaux, but never, ever with one of your investment
picks. We’ll talk about ways to stay cool as a cucumber, even when
the markets get wobbly.
So without further ado, let’s talk about one of the most emotionally
charged words in the world—Money.
Acknowledgments
rom Chris: Sitting down to put fingers to keyboard and write the
F volume you have before you would not have been possible were
it not for the education, learnings, and conversations that helped
develop the thematic way I look at the world. As you might imagine,
the list is far from short, but also like any list, there are several central
figures worth noting. These include David Snyder, Dr. Phil Lane, and
Dr. Ben Fine, who had an influential hand from the very beginning;
friends and compatriots Keith Bliss, Mike Canevaro, Brian Vosburgh,
and Chris Broussard; Dr. Bernard McSherry, who wrangled me into
the classroom and afforded me the opportunity to stun graduate and
undergraduate students alike with my desk walking; A.J. Rice, without
whom my time on the radio and elsewhere with people such as John
McCaslin, Matt Ray, Chris Salcedo, Melanie Morgan, and others would
never have happened; and Stephanie Link, who welcomed me to The
Street and allowed me to work with folks like Bob Lang, Kamal Khan,
Paul Curcio, and many other wonderful people, including Jim Cramer,
who has been nothing but encouraging and enthusiastic as my role at
The Street has grown over the years.
From Lenore: This book would not have been possible without
the insights gained from conversations with some of the most truly
xv
Money 11
65+, but the population cohort itself is living longer. In 2008, the
65–74 age group (20.8 million) was 9.5 times larger than in 1900,
while the 75–84 group (13.1 million) was 17 times larger and the 85+
group (5.6 million) was 46 times larger. This really put the data into
perspective for us: A child born in 2007 could expect to live 77.9 years,
about 30 years longer than a child born in 1900.
As a result of increasing longevity and the decline in the average
number of children people are having, the domestic population is skew-
ing older. That pace began to accelerate even further in 2011, when
the Baby Boomer generation (those born between January 1, 1946, and
December 31, 1964) started turning 65. Beginning January 1, 2011,
every single day more than 10,000 Baby Boomers will reach the age
of 65. That is going to keep happening every single day for the next
19 years and will add roughly 70 million to the 65+ category.
But what if you’re a few decades or more away from entering your
Golden Years and are a member of Generation X?
If you were born between the early 1960s and the early 1980s, then
you’re probably between the ages of 33 and 53 years old. Even more
likely, between 2007 and 2010, you saw a drop in your wealth coming
out of the Great Recession. Perhaps you lost your job for a while or
thought you were going to … maybe you were one of the lucky ones
who didn’t have those concerns, but if you did, it meant falling behind
in your savings and investing efforts. Unlike those at or near the door of
retirement, Gen-Xers as well as Millennials (if you were born between
the early 1980s and early 2000s) have time on their side when it comes
to saving and investing for their retirement and other life goals.
Despite the time factor that affords the power of compound
investing, more Millennials have opted to choose cash as their favorite
long-term investment than any other age group, according to a new
Bankrate.com. Per that report, 39 percent of Millennials surveyed
said cash was their preferred way to invest money they don’t need for
at least 10 years—that was three times the number who picked the
stock market.
The eschewing of the stock market by Millennials is likely to prove
a costly mistake and raises the question as to where and how you are
building your nest egg. If you are a diligent saver and have been putting
money in the bank, the returns you are getting given the low interest
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be determined.
17‒27. The same subject is treated in xxvi. 1‒19, and this fact
has been urged as an argument for the view that chapter ix. is an
addition to the Chronicler’s work (see Introduction p. xxiii). But it is
also reasonable to suppose that the Chronicler would here give a
register of inhabitants of Jerusalem (which could not be included in
the list of the separate tribes), and such a register would probably
give a survey of the Levitical classes.
for the camp of the children of Levi] i.e. the Temple; but the
phrase, which is derived from Numbers ii. 17, in its original context of
course signifies the Tabernacle of the Mosaic period. Doubtless it is
used with the implication that the institution of the gatekeepers dated
back to that age: compare verse 19 ad fin., and contrast verse 22.
19. over the camp of the Lord, keepers] We might expect the
reference to the Temple or Tabernacle to be continued; but, as
nothing is said in the Pentateuch of “keepers of the entry to the
tabernacle,” probably the entry to the camp, not to the tabernacle, is
meant in the present phrase. With this view agrees the mention of
Phinehas (verse 20), for it apparently was the profanation of the
camp in general, not of the tabernacle, which Phinehas avenged
(Numbers xxv. 6‒8), thus earning a blessing (Numbers xxv. 11‒13).
whom David ... did ordain] The Chronicler attributes to David the
organisation of the priests (xxiv. 3), of the Levites (xxiii. 27; xxiv. 31),
of the singers (xxv. 1 ff.), and of the doorkeepers (in this passage). It
has been thought that this verse is at variance with verses 18, 19,
where the Mosaic origin of the gatekeepers seems to be implied. But
in answer it may be said that the Chronicler is guilty of no
inconsistency in ascribing the origin of the doorkeepers to the
Mosaic period and saying here that David and Samuel “ordained
them in their set office,” for the phrase refers, not to their origin, but
to their organisation. For another suggestion see below on verse 26.
the seer] For the title, xxvi. 28, xxix. 29; 1 Samuel ix. 9; and
compare 2 Chronicles xvi. 7.
24. On the four sides] Fuller details are given in xxvi. 14‒18.
28, 29.
Duties of the Levites.
30.
A Priestly Duty.
31, 32.
Other Levitical Duties.
Chapter X.
1‒12 (= 1 Samuel xxxi. 1‒13).
The Defeat, Death, and Burial of Saul.
1‒12. There are several variations between the text given here
and the text of 1 Samuel, to which attention will be called in the
notes below.
and abuse me] i.e. wreak their cruel will upon me; compare
Judges i. 6.
⁶So Saul died, and his three sons; and all his
house died together.
6. all his house] In Samuel “his armourbearer and all his men.”
The reference may be to Saul’s servants: his family was not
exterminated in this battle.
12. took away] i.e. from the walls of Beth-shan (so Peshitṭa).
asked counsel ... spirit] i.e. of the witch of Endor, 1 Samuel xxviii.
7 ff.
we are thy bone and thy flesh] The phrase is not to be taken
strictly as implying kinship, for only the tribe of Judah could say “The
king is near of kin to us” (2 Samuel xix. 42). The other tribes mean
that they will obey David as though he were their own kin.
2. the Lord thy God said] Compare verses 3, 10; 1 Samuel xvi.
1‒13.