Water Science

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Fluvio-geomorphic change of the Padma-

Meghna river course using the NDWI and MNDWI
techniques

Faruk Hossain, Mohammad Ashraful Kamal & Tahera Afrin

To cite this article: Faruk Hossain, Mohammad Ashraful Kamal & Tahera Afrin (2024)
Fluvio-geomorphic change of the Padma-Meghna river course using the NDWI and MNDWI
techniques, Water Science, 38:1, 293-310, DOI: 10.1080/23570008.2024.2344752

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/23570008.2024.2344752

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UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis
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Published online: 27 Apr 2024.

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WATER SCIENCE
2024, VOL. 38, NO. 1, 293–310
https://doi.org/10.1080/23570008.2024.2344752

Fluvio-geomorphic change of the Padma-Meghna river course using the NDWI

and MNDWI techniques
Faruk Hossain , Mohammad Ashraful Kamal and Tahera Afrin
Geological Survey of Bangladesh, Segunbagicha, Dhaka, Bangladesh

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

This study intends to investigate the fluvial-geomorphic change and erosion-accretion pro­ Received 17 January 2024
cesses of two significant rivers. The 2149 km2 research area’s overall erosion and accretion were Accepted 14 April 2024
depicted using multi-temporal Landsat images and Normalized Difference Water Index, KEYWORDS
Modified Normalized Difference Water Index methods to measure and investigate change. NDWI; MNDWI; riverbank
However, focus has been placed on four unique sections that are prone to erosion, and the erosion; Padma river;
bank migration of the section has been measured in order to depict the actual state of erosion. Meghna river
The Padma-Meghna River eroded approximately 11.0, 77.0, and 13.0 km2 between 1973–1978,
1978–1989, and 1989–1994. However, 78.0 and 48.0 km2 of accretion occurred in the years
between 1994 and 1999 and 1999 and 2004. Moreover, between 2004 and 2021, the river’s
erosional activity was remarkably dynamic compared to deposition. Besides, 64 km2 and 4 km2
of land accretion occurred during 2008–2014 and 2014–2019, while 77 km2 and 68 km2 of land
eroded during 2004–2008 and 2019–2021. The overall rates of erosion and accretion are 5.12%
and 4.04%, respectively. Statistically, both banks of the Padma River eroded about 2 km from
1973 to 2021. Padma-Meghna confluences are more unstable and susceptible to change. The
Meghna’s left bank moved 4.5 km east between Goshairhat and Haimchar in 1989, and in 2008,
the river shifted 4.8 km west from the river of 1994. In 1989, it moved 5 km east from a previous
location between Goshairhat and Haiderganj, and in 2008, it moved 6.3 km west from the 1989
river. The bank migrated 12 km eastward in 2014 from where it was in 2008 through the bar
development. The Mehendiganj Upazila’s eastern side lost more than 7.4 km between 1973
and 2021, and the current major channel is simply 7.4 km west of the 1973 river. The findings of
the dynamic changes might be useful to planners, developers, researchers, and government
agencies as they develop and put into practice new development initiatives and river basin
management.

20
Distance (Km)

15
10
5
0
1973 1978 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2014 2019 2021
Left Bank distance from A (km) 2.76 3 4.38 4 2.4 2.37 2 1.8 0.42 0.42
Right Bank distance from B (km) 2.47 2.27 2.2 1.7 2.55 1.57 0.035 0.067 0.035 0.035
River Width (including bar) (km) 10.3 10.25 9.12 9.95 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.86 15.2 15.2
Channel (excluding bar) (km) 7 7.65 6.62 6.8 7.1 6.2 4.9 6.11 3.2 5
Bar (km) 3.3 2.6 2.5 3.15 3.7 5.5 7.7 7.75 12 10.2

20
Distance (Km)

15

10

0
1973 1978 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2014 2019 2021
Left Bank distance from C (km) 8.28 12.85 13 10.82 8.9 6.6 6 17.27 17.16 16
Right Bank distance from D (km) 5 4.4 3.08 2.6 2.48 1.97 1.54 1.45 1.45 1.45
River Width (including bar) km 10 6 6.9 9.8 11.9 14.6 15.6 16.4 16.9 17.13
Channel excluding bar (km) 8.8 6 4.4 7.3 5.9 7.9 6.9 6.12 5.6 6.63
Bar (km) 1.2 0 2.5 2.5 6 6.7 8.7 10.28 11.3 10.5

25
Distance (Km)

20
15
10
5
0
1973 1978 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2014 2019 2021
Left Bank distance from E (km) 4.5 3.2 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3
Right Bank distance from F (km) 2.8 1.7 2.5 3.8 4.3 3.9 2.8 2 1.9 1.9
River Width (including bar) (km) 17.5 19.8 21 19.7 18.5 18.9 20.6 21.4 21.3 21.6
Channel (excluding bar) (km) 10 7.8 10.8 10.3 9.8 7.9 8.4 6.9 7.01 10.2
Bar (km) 7.5 12 9.05 9.4 8.7 11 12.2 14.5 14.2 11.4

CONTACT Faruk Hossain geofaruk104@gmail.com Geological Survey of Bangladesh, 153 Pioneer Road, Segunbagicha, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which
permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The terms on which this article has been
published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.
294 F. HOSSAIN ET AL.
Introduction
Bangladesh is a riverine country due to its extensive
network of rivers that flow through it, including the
Ganges, Brahmaputra, and the Meghna River. Major
parts of the country are covered by flood plains. The
rivers and streams of this country have continuously
changed their course and developed many civilizations
from time to time. However, this continuous river
course shifting causes riverbank erosion due to soft
flood plain deposits, which is a very old and serious
problem in our country. Riverbank erosion is displa­
cing thousands of people and robbing them of their
land every year (Das, 2011). In Bangladesh erosion has
resulted in the loss of agricultural land and landless­
ness, which is a contributory cause of poverty (Rana,
2017). Twenty out of Bangladesh’s 64 districts are
subject to riverbank erosion, which erodes around
8700 hectares of land annually and impacts over
200,000 people by damaging their houses and agricul­
tural land (Alam, 2017; Freihardt & Frey, 2023). River
course change is significant for affecting riverbank
erosion and the development of the flood plain from
a geomorphological standpoint. Understanding the
processes is crucial for explaining the formation of
fluvial features because they are among the most
dynamic parts of the landscape (Hooke, 1979). The
bulk of Bangladesh’s rivers feature sandy bottoms, low
Figure 1. Location of the study area.
slopes, a lot of meandering, and banks that are prone
to erosion and shifting (Bangladesh Water
Development Board BWDB, 2020). Bangladesh is situ­
ated in the largest Ganges delta in the world. The
Ganges Delta is often referred to as the Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River Delta (Islam,
2016; Nicholls & Goodbred, 2005; Woodroffe,
Nicholls, Saito, Chen, & Goodbred, 2006). The huge,
active river courses in the deltaic zone, including the
Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River move
a substantial quantity of sediment (109 tons/year)
through discharge water (Figure 2), that building the
Ganges delta (Islam & Gnauck, 2008; Sarker, Huque,
Alam, & Koudstaal, 2003). The name Padma gets its
name after the confluence of the Ganges and Jamuna
Rivers, at Aricha-Goalundo area of Faridpur district,
in the northern part of the study area. The Meghna
River links the Padma near Chandpur to form the
Padma-Meghna confluence in the middle and the
Meghna estuary forms at the mouth of the Bay of
Bengal in the south.
The Padma transports 900 Mt of sediment
annually, whereas, the Upper Meghna transports 13
Mt (Mondal et al., 2020). The Padma is a very large
alluvial river that has a 5 cm/km average slope and the
Meghna River is a low-energy, multi-channel fluvial
system with a system of linking channels and inter-

channel zones (Alam, 1991; Chowdhury et al., 2021).
Furthermore, the Upper Meghna has a 2 cm/km aver­
age slope, and the Lower Meghna has a 5 cm/km
average slope (Gazi, Roy, Mia, & Akhter, 2020;
Mondal et al., 2020).
Some recent research (Arefin, Meshram, & Seker,
2021; Chowdhury et al., 2021; Eshita, Bhuiyan, &
Saadat, 2023; Ferdoush, Biswas, & Mondal, 2022;
Halder & Mowla Chowdhury, 2021; Rashid, 2020)
suggests that both the Padma and Meghna have sub­
stantially changes in the last 50 years due to erosion,
bar development and migration of the riverbank.
Variation of discharge water can influence the pattern
of sedimentation, bank erosion, bar formation and
bank shifting.
The seasonality of the three mighty rivers has
a significant impact on water levels between high and
low-flow seasons. Almost 80% of Bangladesh’s entire
river flow occurs from July to October and 20% during
the dry season (Bangladesh Water Development
Board BWDB, 2020) (Figure 2). The difference of
water level between monsoon and dry seasons is
around 7 m on the Ganges, 5–6 m on the Padma,
and 3.5 m on the lower Meghna (JICA, 2005).
Remote sensing-based satellite image analysis has
a great deal of promises for researchers because of the
many purposes of the study and has become a low-cost
alternative for detecting characteristics and compre­
hending hydrogeological systems in well-mapped
areas where field data is scarce (Acharya, Subedi,
Huang, & Lee, 2019). It is currently the most popular
in several research disciplines like urban planning,
agriculture, and environmental monitoring.
However, over the last few decades, various water
body-mapping approaches using remote sensing
data. The Normalized Difference Water Index
(NDWI) is a popular approach based on the water
spectral indices (Feyisa, Meilby, Fensholt, & Proud,
2014; Fisher & Danaher, 2013; Gao, 1996; Hollstein,
Segl, Guanter, Brell, & Enesco, 2016; Li et al., 2019;
McFEETERS, 1996; Xie, Luo, Xu, Pan, & Tong, 2016;
Yang & Du, 2017; Yang et al., 2015). Present research
80000
Water Discharge (m3/s)
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Ganges
Jan Feb March April
Figure 2. Monthly water discharge flow of the major rivers in Bangladesh (modified after Islam, 2016).
WATER SCIENCE 295
applied NDWI and MNDWI technique to delineate
the river, erosion-bar formation, bar dynamics and
migration pattern of the river. In recent, many experts
throughout the world, including this country, have
used remote sensing technologies to investigate river
morphology and dynamics. Several works are worth
mentioning (Alam & Singh, 2021; Arefin, Meshram, &
Seker, 2021; Chowdhury et al., 2021; Dewan et al.,
2017; Gazi, Roy, Mia, & Akhter, 2020; Halder &
Mowla Chowdhury, 2021; Islam & Islam, 2021;
Kumar Pal, Rahman, & Anika Yunus, 2017; Langat,
Kumar, & Koech, 2019; Mahmood, Ahmed, Zhang, &
Li, 2020; Rashid, 2020; Rashid & Habib, 2022; Rashid,
Habib, Khan, & Islam, 2021; Singha & Pal, 2021).
Dewan et al. (2017) quantify the channel parameters
like erosion, deposition, mean channel width, sinuos­
ity, braiding index, etc. of two significant sections of
the Ganges-Padma system using GIS.
Rashid (2020), used RS and GIS techniques to
determine morphological aspects of the lower
Padma River in Bangladesh, such as channel bar
development, braiding index, sinuosity, and its rela­
tionship with bank line migration. However, few
studies have used the NDWI and MNDWI indices
to characterize the river course change, bank migra­
tion, and dynamic behavior of the major rivers of the
Padma and the Meghna over a large area. Arefin,
Meshram, and Seker (2021) investigated the Padma
River’s channel shifting and its impact on land usage
and land cover using RS and GIS techniques. The
NDWI approach was used to distinguish between
a water and land boundary. Even though Gazi,
Roy, Mia, and Akhter (2020), used the MNDWI
approach to identify the link between the dynamic
character of confluences and vulnerability assess­
ments at the Padma-Meghna and Ganges-Jamuna
confluences, their research was limited to the two
confluences of the Major River’s. Chowdhury et al.
(2021) used the single-band image classification
technique to analyze total erosion in Mehendiganj
upazila in the lower Meghna estuary. However, the
goal of this study is to represent gross erosion bar
Brahmaputra Meghna Padma
May June July August Sept October November December
296 F. HOSSAIN ET AL.
formation, bar dynamics, and channel shifting across
the whole study area, with an emphasis on four
distinct dynamic locations and associated change
scenarios from 1973 to 2021. The research area cov­
ers 2149 km2 from the confluence of the Padma and
Meghna rivers, as well as a portion of the Lower
Meghna that includes parts of Munshiganj,
Madaripur, Shariatpur, Barishal, Chandpur, and
Lakshmipur districts (Figure 1).
Figure 3. Methodological flowchart.
Materials and method
The following tasks have been taken into considera­
tion to complete the analysis and fulfill the objectives
of the research: choosing a study area, gathering data,
processing images, and extracting water bodies using
NDWI and MNDWI methods (Figure 3). With the aid
of the software programs QGIS 3.16 and ArcGIS 10.5,
the study was accomplished. In order to delineate,
analyze, and compare specific river characteristics,

Table 1. Specifications and lists for satellite images used for NDWI and MNDWI (source: USGS, https://earthexplorer.usgs.
gov).
Satellite Sensor Path/Row
Landsat MSS MSS 147/44
Landsat-5 TM 137/44
Land Sat-8 OLI 137/44
a five-year interval (1973–2021) of dry season, cloud-
free Landsat MSS, Landsat TM Level 2 and Landsat 8
OLI Level 2 imagery was obtained from the USGS
website (Table 1). NDWI and MNDWI-classified
images were used to compute erosion and accretion
in the research area.
Image processing
Image processing is a prerequisite for further satellite
imagery investigation, such as land cover and land use
mapping (LULC) and change detection analysis. The
Dark Object Subtraction (DOS) atmospheric correc­
tion method is employed for image processing
through the SCP plugin of QGIS, which was developed
by Congedo (2021). Landsat (TM) and Landsat 8
images are of 30-m resolution; however, Landsat
MSS images have a 60-m resolution. To maintain the
uniformity and accuracy of the study, Landsat MSS
images of 60-m resolution are regenerated to 30 m
resolution by a resampling technique.
Normalized difference water index (NDWI) and
modified normalized difference water index
(MNDWI)
The normalized differential water index (NDWI) is
a well-known method for locating surface water
bodies. McFeeters first introduced NDWI in 1996 to
detect surface waters in wetland environments and to
allow for the measurement of surface water extent.
Using remote sensing images’ green and near-
infrared (NIR) bands, based on the phenomenon
that the water body has strong absorbability and low
radiation in the visible to infrared wavelength range
(Du et al., 2016; McFEETERS, 1996). Although NDWI
was initially developed using Landsat MSS data, it has
now been effectively applied to other sensor data for
surface water body identification (Chowdary et al.,
2008; McFeeters, 2013).
NDWI value ranges from -1 to 1, water body shows
always a positive value and non-water body shows
negative value. McFEETERS (1996) proposed zero as
WATER SCIENCE 297
Year/month/day Resolution (m) Wavelength (µm)
1973/02/02 60 Band 4: 0.5–0.6
1978/02/21 Band 7: 0.8–1.1
1989/01/12 30 Band 2: 0.52–0.60
1994/01/02 Band 5: 1.55–1.75
1999/02/01
2004/02/15
2008/12/10
2014/01/25 30 Band3:0.533–0.590
2019/01/07 Band6:1.566–1.651
2021/11/28
the threshold (Ji, Zhang, & Wylie, 2009). For water
NDWI > 0 and for non-water NDWI ≤ 0. Though
NDWI proposed by McFEETERS (1996) have a good
result, in some cases, it is unable to discriminate built-
up area to water feature, due to buildup area also
shows positive value like water (Ji, Zhang, & Wylie,
2009).
Overcome this type of difficulty to discriminate
built-up area to water feature Xu (2006) proposed
a modified NDWI (MNDWI), where he replaced
SWIR band instead of NIR band for Landsat TM
band 5. The MNDWI is capable of extracting surface
water while suppressing errors from built-up lands,
vegetation, and soil (Xu, 2006; Yang & Du, 2017; Yang,
Zhao, Qin, Zhao, & Liang, 2017).
To distinguish between rivers and land in the research
region, NDWI is used on Landsat MSS and modified
NDWI (MNDWI) on Landsat TM and Landsat OLI.
NDWI and MNDWI were calculated by using raster
calculator tools of ArcGIS 10.3. Bands 4 and 7 of the
Landsat MSS were utilized as green and NIR, respec­
tively. Green is assigned to Landsat TM band 2 and
short-wave infrared (SWIR) to band 5, whereas green
and SWIR are assigned to Landsat 8 band 3 and band
6, respectively. The natural break (Jenk) approach was
used to classify NDWI and MNDWI images. The
land-water boundary was distinguished by close visual
interpretation of class values and then performed
reclassification and raster-to-polygon approach due
to the export final shape of the river and land. For
change analysis, the main channel, as well as the
accompanying bar/land and connecting tributary-
distributary features, are considered, while other dis­
tracting tiny features are removed from the research
region using the attribute table.
Result
Erosion, accretion, and rate
The status of Padma-Meghna River in 1973 is taken as
base area for all Erosion-Accretion/bar formation ana­
lysis for this study. Erosion/Accretion bar formation
298 F. HOSSAIN ET AL.
Table 2. The erosion and accretion of the bank area and bar over the period of 1973–2021, (-) and (+) value indicate erosion and
accretion, respectively.
Year 1973–78 1978–89 1989–94 1994–99
Erosion/Accretion -11.0 -77.0 -13.0 +78.0
(Km2)
Rate (km2/year) -2.2 -7.0 -2.6 +15.6
Total Erosion (km2) -246
Total Accretion (km2) +194
Total year 48
Erosion rate -5.12
Accretion rate +4.04
Net erosion rate -1.08
and average rate of all the changes of river course
shifting described in the following. 2149 km2 of the
mapped area was considered the total study area.
A total 246 km2 of land was lost due to river course
change and 194 km2 of land was gained due to bar
formation, with yearly average change of 5.12 km2 and
4.04 km2 respectively between 1973 and 2021 (Table 2).
Significant erosions observed during the comparison
years between 1973 and 1978, 1978 and 1989, 1989
and 1994, 2004 and 2008 and 2019 and 2021.
While for the corresponding periods of 1994–1999,
1999–2004, 2008–2014, and 2014–2019, substantial
accretion was observed in the study area. The rates of
erosion and accretion/deposition for the same duration
were -2.2, -7.0, -2.6, -17.0, -38.5, and 15.6, 9.6, 10.67,
and 0.8 km2, respectively. From 2019 to 2021, land
erosion was much higher than the rest of the time. In
just 2 years, 77 km2 of land was lost at a rate of 38.5 km2
per year (Table 2, and Figures 4, 5, and Figures 6).
Analysis of the river course shifting
Four separate cross-section areas are examined in
order to estimate and measure the bank line migration
from a certain site and to illustrate the true scenario of
change in an area (Figure 7). Using the ArcGIS 10.5
and QGIS measuring tools, the change detection from
a location for all section lines was calculated overlay­
ing the river courses of all years. The comparison and
estimation are displayed in Figures 8–11.
Erosion-accretion and river course shifting in
section AB
The Padma is a mighty and very dynamic river, which
changes its course at many spots over time. The Naria
Upazila, located on the southern bank of the Padma
River, is one of the most erosion-prone areas in the
study area. The southern bank of Padma migrated
more than 1.5 km to the north of the Naria in 1989,
compared to the bank’s position in 1973. From 1989 to
1994, erosion started toward the south and continued
until 2021 (Figure 4).
From 1989 to 2021, the Padma shifted a few hun­
dred to more than 1.5 km of its bank by moving in an
arc-shaped manner toward the south (Figures 7 and
8). During 1994–1999 and 2014–2019, the southern
1999–004 2004–008 2008–14 2014–19 2019–21 1973–21
+48.0 -68.0 +64.0 +4.0 -77.0 -52.0
+9.6 -17.0 +10.67 +0.8 -38.5 -1.08
Erosion rate= Total Erosion/Total year
Accretion rate= Total Accretion/Total year
bank of this area shifted almost 1.5 km toward the
south, which was significantly greater compared to
other years. The river water distance from point “A”
in 1973 was 2.76 km, but at present, it is just about 400
m from the same location. Between 1973 and 2021,
about 2 km of land was lost due to erosion, and the
river shifted to the south, close to the point “A”
(Figures 7 and 8). In 1973, the right/north bank of
the river was 2.47 km away from point “B;” however,
the distance has continuously decreased. The right
bank has lost over 2 km of land between 1973 and
2021.
Erosion-accretion and bank migration in section CD
The left bank of the main channel of Meghna shifted
toward the east between (C) and (D) during 1973–
1989. The bank distance of the channel from (C) in
1973 was 8.28 km, and in 1978, the distance increased
by more than 4.5 km until 1989 (Figures 7 to 11). At
this time, the left bank gained land through bar devel­
opment and shifted 4.5 km east of the main channel of
1973. While, during the periods of 1989–1994, 1994–
1999, 1999–2004, and 2004–2008, the same bank of
the channel lost 2.18, 1.92, 2.3, and 0.6 km of land,
respectively, shifted toward the west by 4.8 km in 2008
from the river of 1994 (Figures 7 and 9).
A massive channel migration happened between
2008 and 2014. The left bank of the main channel
migrated by bar development around 11 km to the
east in 2014 from the river in 2008. Between 2014 and
2019, the riverbank was stable compared to the period
of 2019–2021. In 2019–2021, the left bank lost nearly 1
km of land to erosion (Figures 7 and 9). Noticeable
erosion also happened on the right bank. The right
bank was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2021.
Erosion-accretion and bank migration in section EF
The left bank and right bank distances of the main
channel were measured between (E) and (F) (Figure 7).
The left bank lost 1.3 and 2.0 km of land between 1973–
1978 and 1978–1989, respectively, by erosion. However,
minor accretion occurred from 1994 to 2004, but the left
bank was almost stable from 2008 to 2021 (Figure 10). If
we consider the left bank from the edge of the bar in 1989,
there was a substantial change that occurred in 1999, and
in that time the river shifted to the west by 3.8 km of bar
 WATER SCIENCE 299

a b c d

e f g h

Legend
Landmark
River 1973
River 1978

j k River 1989
i River 1994
River 1999
River 2004
River 2008
River 2014
River 2019
River 2021
Study area

Figure 4. The figure represents the rivers’ year-by-year changes (a) 1973 and (b)1978, (c) 1989 (d) 1994 (e) 1999, (f) 2004 (g) 2008,
(h) 2014, (i) 2019, (j) 2021 (k) 1973 and 2021.

1600
1400
1200
Area (km2)

1000
800
600
400
200
0
1973 1978 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2014 2019 2021
River 747 758 835 848 770 722 790 726 722 799
Land and Bar 1402 1391 1314 1301 1379 1427 1359 1423 1427 1350
River Land and Bar

Figure 5. Comparative graph of river and land area in km2 over the period of 1973 to 2021.

erosion. In contrast, 3.8 km eastward shifting occurred The right bank of the channel shifted more than
from 1999 to 2021 between “E” and “F” by a new bar 1.0 km toward the west by accretion from 1973 to
formation. 1989. The right side of the channel enlarges its
300 F. HOSSAIN ET AL.

Erosion (km2) Accretion (km2)

300

200

100
Area (km2)

-100

-200

-300
1973-78 1978-89 1989-94 1994-99 1999-004 2004-008 2008-14 2014-19 2019-21 Total Erosion Total Accretion

Figure 6. Erosion and accretion of land in the study region from 1973 to 2021, computed using landsat MSS, landsat TM, and
landsat 8 OLI NDWI images and MNDWI classified technique.

Figure 7. Map showing course of the river from 1973 to 2021, with change dynamics in section AB (A, Naria speedboat station to B,
Hasali bazar), CD (C, Goshairhut UPDB to D, Haimchar UHC), EF (E, Ekota bazar to F, Haiderganj), and GH (G, Mehediganj fire station
to H, Moju chowdary launch ghat).
 WATER SCIENCE 301

Distance (Km)
20
15
10
5
0
1973 1978 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2014 2019 2021
Left Bank distance from A (km) 2.76 3 4.38 4 2.4 2.37 2 1.8 0.42 0.42
Right Bank distance from B (km) 2.47 2.27 2.2 1.7 2.55 1.57 0.035 0.067 0.035 0.035
River Width (including bar) (km) 10.3 10.25 9.12 9.95 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.86 15.2 15.2
Channel (excluding bar) (km) 7 7.65 6.62 6.8 7.1 6.2 4.9 6.11 3.2 5
Bar (km) 3.3 2.6 2.5 3.15 3.7 5.5 7.7 7.75 12 10.2

Figure 8. It depicts the Padma river’s left and right bank distances, river width and bar length in different years, along the section
AB (see Figure 7), from Naria speed boat station to Hasali Bazar.

20
Distance (Km)

15

10

0
1973 1978 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2014 2019 2021
Left Bank distance from C (km) 8.28 12.85 13 10.82 8.9 6.6 6 17.27 17.16 16
Right Bank distance from D (km) 5 4.4 3.08 2.6 2.48 1.97 1.54 1.45 1.45 1.45
River Width (including bar) km 10 6 6.9 9.8 11.9 14.6 15.6 16.4 16.9 17.13
Channel excluding bar (km) 8.8 6 4.4 7.3 5.9 7.9 6.9 6.12 5.6 6.63
Bar (km) 1.2 0 2.5 2.5 6 6.7 8.7 10.28 11.3 10.5

Figure 9. The section CD (see Figure 7) depicts the Meghna river’s left and right bank distance, including river width and bar, from
goshairhut upazila Parishad Dak Banglo (C) to Haimchar Upazila health complex (D) from the year 1973 to 2021.

25
Distance (Km)

20
15
10
5
0
1973 1978 1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2014 2019 2021
Left Bank distance from E (km) 4.5 3.2 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3
Right Bank distance from F (km) 2.8 1.7 2.5 3.8 4.3 3.9 2.8 2 1.9 1.9
River Width (including bar) (km) 17.5 19.8 21 19.7 18.5 18.9 20.6 21.4 21.3 21.6
Channel (excluding bar) (km) 10 7.8 10.8 10.3 9.8 7.9 8.4 6.9 7.01 10.2
Bar (km) 7.5 12 9.05 9.4 8.7 11 12.2 14.5 14.2 11.4

Figure 10. The section EF (see Figure 7) depicts the Meghna River’s left and right bank distances including river width and bar, from
Ekota Bazar (E) to Haiderganj (F) for the year 1973 to 2021.

width by 5.7 km of bar erosion during that time. Erosion-accretion and bank migration in section GH
However, a new bar formation occurred to the The Mehendiganj subdistrict of Barishal district is one
west, and the right side of the river gained of the most erosion-prone areas in the study area,
a straighter pattern compared to 1973 and 1978. which is separated by the main channel of Meghna
The right bank of the channel gradually shifted to to the east and a small channel to the west. Erosion
the west until 1999, and in 1999, it was shifted takes place all around the landmass during this span of
around 3 km from 1978. In 1999, the bank started time and forms the present shape of the island. It is
shifting to the east, and 2.7 km of shifting occurred observed that the left bank distances of the main
from 1999 to 2021. channel from (G) to (H) (Figure 6) have gradually
302 F. HOSSAIN ET AL.
20
Distance (Km)
15
10
0
1973 1978
Left bank distance from G (km) 16.68 16.5
Right bank distance from H (km) 3.4 4.5
River Width (main channel) km 6.8 5.7
Figure 11. The section GH (see Figure 7) shows the left bank and right bank distances, including river width from Mehendiganj fire
station (G) to Mojuchowdary launch ghat (H) of the Meghna river for the year 1973 to 2021.
decreased over the years and almost 1 km2 of land was
lost in every span of time from 1973 to 2014.
Significant erosion occurred during the years 1973–
1978, 1978–1989, 1989–1994, 1994–1999, 1999–2004,
2004–2009, and 2009–2014 (Figures 7, 11, and 12).
From 2014 to 2021, the left bank of the main channel
was almost stable. However, during 1973–2021, this
island lost nearly 7.4 km of land from (G) to (H), and
in the present day, the main channel of the river flows
just 7.4 km westward from the channel of 1973. The
right bank of the channel from (H) gained 1.1 km of
land during 1973–1978 by bar development. However,
in 1978–1989, the right bank lost 2.1 km of land,
including the newly formed bar of 1973–1978
(Figures 7, 11, and 12).
Discussion
Change dynamics of the Padma and the
Padma-Meghna confluence (PMC)
Change dynamics in the years 1973 to 1978
In 1973, the Padma River was bifurcated by a single
big channel bar between the left and the right bank of
the river section AB and the channel width was 10.3
km (including the bar). The channel was narrowed to
the right to meet the confluence of two rivers between
Bhederganj and Chandpur, creating a new bar
between the eastern edge of sections AB and PMC.
In 1973, the main channel width between the bank and
section AB’s eastern side ranged from 2.5 to 3.0 km. In
1978, the bifurcated channel bar extended to the east,
while another bar had completely gone due to erosion,
resulting in two Padma-Meghna confluence places.
Both banks along AB eroded greatly, and the channel
expanded in area compared to 1973. However, the
right side extended more than the left (Figures 12
(a,b)).
Change dynamics in the years 1978 to 1989
Between 1978 and 1989, a large bar at Bhederganj
emerged and expanded between Bhederganj, Matlab,
1989 1994 1999 2004 2008 2014 2019 2021
15.8 14.8 14 13.2 10.8 9.76 9.33 9.23
2.4 2.38 2.46 2.38 2.38 2.32 2.38 2.28
7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9
and Chandpur Sadar (left and right sides of the PMC).
As a result of the newly formed bar, the channel
narrowed to the south, while the main channel and
PMC migrated north between Munshiganj Sadar-
Mohonpur and Matlab. The Padma River changed
shape from Janjira-Naria to Munshiganj-Matlab
(Section AB to PMC) by eroding the left bank around
Janjira and Bhederganj, as well as territory gained by
Naria. The right banks of the Padma near B, as well as
Meghna’s right bank of Matlab, and have experienced
significant erosion. During that time, the confluence
with the lower Meghna eroded an area of nearly half
a kilometer to 2 km. The massive outflow of water
caused by a significant flooding event in 1988 (Dewan,
Nishigaki, & Komatsu, 2003; Rashid, 2020).
Change dynamics in the years 1989 to 1994
In the span of 1989–94, nearly 2–9 km in width and
a 24 km long braided bar formed between AB and
Chandpur, and the Padma dissected into north and
south channels. The North Channel meets the Meghna
near Monoharpur, and the South Channel meets near
Chandpur. In that period, huge erosion occurred on
the south bank along the Naria-Bhederganj and
Lohajang-Tongibari-Munshiganj to the right bank.
The channel migrated to the south, which is nearly
1–2 km to A and 7–10 km to Bhederganj.
Change dynamics in the years 1994 to 1999
A comparison of the channels between 1994 and 1999
revealed that both Padma banks expanded their banks
between Janjira-Naria, Lohajang, and Munshiganj
(AB). The north bank migrated to the north by 1.5 to
2 km along the Lohajang bank line, as well as 0.1 to 1.5
km in the Munshiganj Sadar, while the right bank
shifted to the south by about 1.0 to 1.5 km in
Tongibari. This North Channel caused a meandering
bend between Lohajang and Munshiganj. The south
bank extends about 1.0 to 2.0 km south of Janjira and
0.3 to 1.0 km south of Naria. The bar between that area
and the next, which was formed in the previous era,

Figure 12. (a) Decadal changes of rivers between 1973–1989, 1989–1999, 1999–2008, and 2008–2021, (b) river rearrangement for
better visualization of the changes, layer 2021 in the upper and 1973 in the lower.
also lost its length and width during that period and
formed a nearly rectangular pattern in 1999.
The erosion and accretion of the river and adjacent
floodplain are influenced by water level and discharge.
When the river is flowing at high levels, energy accu­
mulates, and the river bank erodes even more. In 1998,
the country experienced severe flooding, which had
a substantial impact on river morphology. Erosion is
related to water levels and discharges in a progressive
manner. Reduced water levels and outflow contribute
to erosion (Sarker & Rahman, 2018).
Change dynamics in the years 1999 to 2004
Observed that in 2004, the bar extended its length
by around 5.3 km N-E from the position of 1999
and formed an approximately 5–6 km wide and 23-
km-long bar, which divides the Padma into two sub
channels (north channel and south channel)
between Janjira and Lohajang (Figure 13). The bar
extended between the Janjira-Lohajang-Tongibari-
Naria and Bhederganj-Munshiganj and the North
Channel, which meets the Meghna near
Monoharpur, Matlab. The south channel, bifur­
cated again by a small bar, meets the Meghna
downstream from Monoharpur and jointly meets
near Chandpur. The south channel extended its
route more to the south by 1.3 km at Janjira com­
pared to the position in 1999.
WATER SCIENCE 303
Huge erosion occurred at Janjira, Bhederganj,
and part of the Naria. The north channel reshapes
its flow pattern by extending its right bank a few
hundred meters to a kilometer to the north at
Tongibari and half a kilometer to 1.5 km to the
south by an eroding bar and continues to
Tongibari-Munshiganj Sadar. The south channel
began its meandering lope in 1999, which contin­
ued through 2004, and into the later period. The
morphological features of the Padma River were
straighter, with the exception of minor meandering
loops in different areas (Dewan et al., 2017) and
Rashid (2020) remarked that the statement does
not apply to the entire Padma River.
Change dynamics in the years 2008
Huge changes were observed in 2008 on both banks of
the Padma. In this period, the channel bifurcates as
usual like the previous year but reshapes its route
simultaneously by straightening the south channel
and developing (upward loop in Lohajang-Tongibari
and downward in Tongibari-Munshiganj) two mean­
dering loops in the north channel (M shape/sinusoi­
dal). The right bank of the south channel shifted 0.5
km to 1.5 km to the north by eroding along the NW-to
-SE elongated bar. As a result, the bar decreased its
width but extended its length by rejoining a small bar
and forming a narrow tip of land to the meeting point
of the two rivers between Bhedarganj and Chandpur.
304 F. HOSSAIN ET AL.
Figure 13. The figure represents the rivers’ year-by-year changes between 1973 and 1978 (a), 1978 and 1989 (b), 1989 and 1994
(c), and 1994 and 1999 (d).
On the left bank, a retreat is also about a few hundred
meters to 1.3 km to the south between Naria and
Bhedarganj (A to PMC), and a few hundred meters
to more than 2.0 km to the north by the right bank
eroding along the bar. The river is readjusting due to
widening and migration on both sides of the south
channel, and it turns from a meandering loop to
a straight flow pattern.
Change dynamics in the years 2014 to 2021
The channels were restored to their previous pattern in
2014, with the exception of some erosion in some areas,
such as the downward loop being extended a few hun­
dred meters to the south, and the left and right banks of
the south channel being extended by a few hundred
meters and nearly half a kilometer, respectively, at
Janjira-Naria and Bhederganj (left bank close to A).

On both banks of the south channel, massive ero­
sion occurred in 2019 and 2021. In 2019, the left and
right banks of the south channel extended 1.0 to
1.5 km and roughly 1.0 km to a few hundred meters
between Janjira-Naria and Naria-Naria, respectively,
compared to their 2014 positions. In comparison to
the previous year, the right bank of the south channel
extended its courses left to right from northwest to the
Figure 14. The figure indicates a year-by-year comparison of river changes from 1999 to 2004 (e), 2004 to 2008 (f), 2008 to 2014
(g), 2014, 2019, and 2021 (h).
WATER SCIENCE 305
south-east in 2021 by an eroding bar (left side)
(Figure 14). Between Lohajang and Janjira-Naria
(Figure 13), the south channel eroded around 3.8 km
to 1.7 km and 1.5 to a few hundred meters alongside
the bar in a north-west to south-east direction. Huge
bar erosion occurred between Bhederganj and
Chandpur during that period in the south of the left
portion of the bar.
306 F. HOSSAIN ET AL.
Change dynamics of the lower Meghna
Change dynamics in the years 1973 to 1989
In 1973, the Meghna River developed a triangle shape
between Goshairhat, Hizla, and Mehendiganj on the left
bank and Haimchar, Haidarganj, and Ramgati on the
right bank. It was bifurcated by a NW-SE elongated
braided bar (Char Haim), which was roughly 20 km
long and 6 km wide (Figure 7, section CD, EF). In
comparison to the left side of the bar, the channel
narrowed to the right and the bar degraded 1.5 km in
the direction it was heading in 1973 and 1978. A delta-
shaped bar (N to S 11–19 km long, E to W 2–19 km
wide) was developed by extra sedimentation and chan­
nel turned to the left side. By this point, the channel on
the right was broadening in comparison to the left of the
previous year (Figure 12(b)). Nearly half of the previous
era’s delta bar eroded right to left along N-S (2–9 km) in
1989. The Meghna reshaped itself by straightening its
route and comparatively shifting to the left by enlarging
its channel (Figure 12(b)).
The left bank of the Meghna shifted a few hundred
meters to approximately 3.0 km to the west between
Goshairhat and Bhederganj, and the right bank along
Haimchar shifted a few hundred meters to more than
1.0 km to the east. Resulting from this erosion in 1989,
the river got a straighter segment compared to 1978
from Goshairhat to Haimchar. It is worth mentioning
that the river in 1973–78 was bifurcated between
Goshairhat and Haiderganj, but in 1989 it migrated
its route straight due to massive erosion. The massive
migration is most likely caused by runoff from
upstream during the 1988 flooding event.
Change dynamics in the years 1994 to 2021
From 1994, the left bank of the river started shifting to
the west by developing a meandering lope along
Bhederganj, Goshairhat, and Hizla, and simulta­
neously, a sporadic mid-channel bar (Char Haim)
also started forming between Goshairhat and
Haimchar. Moreover, the right bank shifted to the
east by linear erosion between Haimchar and
Haiderganj, which continued for every span of time
until the present (Figures 6,Figures 9, and 12).
In 1999, the mid-channel bar increased its length
and width, and the channel shifted to the west by 1.9
km and 3.3 km along the line’s CD and EF, respec­
tively. In 2004, the channel started bifurcating (West
channel and East channel) between the lines CD and
EF by increasing the width of the bar, and the left bank
shifted to the west like the previous year. In that period,
the bar increases its width on both sides of the bar, as
well as forming a sporadic bar beside the left bank, and
the mid-channel bar turns into a braided bar. The bar
formation process continued into the later period but
increased its width to the west by squeezing the width
of the west channel compared to the east.
Both banks of Meghna increased their width from
1994 to 2021 in between the line’s CD and EF by
a meandering loop in the west and by linear erosion
on the right bank. However, the main channel of the
present-day river increased its width, shifted to the
east by linear bar erosion, and narrowed its left chan­
nel by continuous land gain. The south of the main
channel broadened its path by continuously eroding
Mehendiganj Island over the study period (Figure 15).
It is worth noting that the forms of the rivers did not
alter much between 1973 and 1978, with the exception
of a broadening in 1978 in certain regions. During the
years 1978–1989, both rivers experienced significant
natural and human-caused alteration, including the
development of new bars, the relocation of existing
bars, and the reshaping and enlargement of channels.
Probable causes of significant fluvio-geomorphic
changes in the rivers
Many factors could have contributed to the dramatic
alterations in rivers after 1980. Intense rainfall and
catastrophic flooding can induce rapid changes in
river morphology due to momentous bank erosion,
migration, and sedimentation. Substantial flooding
occurred in this country in 1987, 1988, 1998, 1999,
2004, 2010, and 2017, which may have resulted in
significant erosion, sedimentation, and geomorphic
changes in the Padma-Meghna River and its catch­
ments. Upstream dams, such as the Farrakkha
Barrage, impede the normal flow of water and sedi­
ment downstream and this could be one of the rea­
sons, because it acts as a barrier to natural water flow
from upstream and sedimentation throughout the
downstream in the Bengal Delta. Other major causes
of erosion include bank undercutting, bank slumping
due to seasonal fluctuations in water level and material
contrast, local scour from turbulence caused by the
bank protection dam’s blockage, and bar development
due to excessive sedimentation. Furthermore, the lack
of gradient in the river bed limits water-holding capa­
city, and both rivers have undergone considerable
modifications due to human activity.
Conclusion
According to the study analysis and findings, both the
Padma and Meghna rivers have changed significantly
throughout time. However, the patterns of river
course change and movement behaviors of those riv­
ers, as well as erosion and accretion, differ from place
to place and time to time. In terms of erosion-
accretion, bar development and relocation, channel
migration and pattern change the Padma and
Meghna are quite dynamic. Between 1973 and 2021,
the left bank (north) of the Padma lost almost 2 km of
land due to erosion and river course shift to the south.

Figure 15. Represent the overall changes of the river between 1973 and 2021, here purple color indicate area common in both
of year.
The right bank also lost nearly 2 km of land between
1973 and 2021. Within the cross-section line EF, it is
observed that the main channel of the Meghna River
migrated 5 km to the east in 1989, compared to its
position in 1973. The period of shifting began in or
before 1989 and lasted until 2008. Between 1973 and
2021, the eastern boundary of Mehendiganj Upazila
lost over 7.4 km of land (see section GH). The Meghna
River’s main channel now runs 7.4 km westward com­
pared to the 1973 main channel. During the years
2008–2014, there was a significant shift. Due to bar
growth to the east, the left bank of the main channel of
Meghna changed almost 12 km from its position in
2008. The left bank began to erode again in 2014–2019
and 2019–2021. During this time, between 1.1 and
WATER SCIENCE 307
1.4 km of land were eroded, and the channel changed
back to the west due to the erosion of more than 1 km
of bar per year. It is also noted that as well as shifting
and reshifting the meeting point with the construction
of bars and changing their positions over time and
space, the confluence of the two rivers is dynamic. In
comparison to the gain process, the total rate of ero­
sion remains dominant. This research will assist plan­
ners, developers, researchers, and government
organizations in taking the next step in development.
However, the remote sensing investigations do not
fully support this assumption because of image resolu­
tion and seasonal fluctuations were not taken into
account. Additional research, such as geological, geo­
technical, and tectonic investigations, is required to
308 F. HOSSAIN ET AL.
determine the causes of the major changes throughout
time. This study advises that the river basin be mana­
ged in an integrated and comprehensive manner,
including cooperation from the government, non-
government organizations, society, and foreign states
that share the river.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to express their sincere appreciation
to the Director-General of the Geological Survey of
Bangladesh (GSB) for allowing them to conduct this
research. Dr. Bazlar Rashid, Deputy Director (Geology),
GSB, also contributed useful research papers and comments
to the writer. The authors also expressed gratitude to the
USGS officials for allowing the use of previous satellite
images.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Funding
The authors reported there is no funding associated with the
work featured in this article.
ORCID
Faruk Hossain http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8012-2408
Mohammad Ashraful Kamal http://orcid.org/0009-0004-
6391-1239
Tahera Afrin http://orcid.org/0009-0002-5084-1070
Author contributions statement
Faruk Hossain: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software,
Writing Original draft manuscript. Mohammad Ashraful
Kamal: Supervision, Writing, Reviewing and Editing.
Tahera Afrin: Data curation, Visualization, draft manuscript
preparation.
Data availability statement
The data that support the findings of this study are available
on request from the corresponding author upon reasonable
request.
Geolocation
This research focused on the Padma and Meghna River
course and Confluence of the Padma and Meghna River,
Bangladesh.
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