China’s Cephalosporin Trends

(2000-2015) & Future Predictions

CRITERION C&D MATHEMATICS

Audrey Lefline S/9M

 I. INTRODUCTION
Table 1. Usage in China (2000-2015)

Cephalosporins are antibiotics used to treat bacterial infections,

effective against both Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria. They
are widely prescribed in China for respiratory, urinary, skin, and soft
tissue infections. This report investigates Cephalosporin usage trends
from 2000-2015 and predicts usage population by 2030, 2040, and
2050. The given data is provided in the form of a table.

II. SCOPE AND LIMITATION

In this report, I will focus on modeling the usage of cephalosporins in

the selected country, China, from 2000-2015 and making predictions
for future usage.
● The calculations will revolve around modeling cephalosporin
usage in the chosen country from 2000 to 2015.

● The study aims to identify trends and develop predictive models for future population usage in
the years 2030, 2040, and 2050.
● The quality and availability of the provided data may limit the accuracy of the analysis.
● Predictions rely on assumptions from historical data, potentially overlooking external factors
such as changes in healthcare policies and socioeconomic conditions.

III. CALCULATIONS
To predict future cephalosporin use in China, I will build a mathematical model. Additionally, the
data provided for the years 2000–2015 will be examined, using the population's cephalosporins
per 1000 as the dependent variable and the year as the independent variable. The functions that
best suit the data pattern will be assessed, including the cubic, exponential, and linear functions.
The population utilizing cephalosporins in 2030, 2040, and 2050 will then be predicted using the
function that best matches the data.

Plotting points in Desmos

We will use the data on China’s population using cephalosporins for the period 2000-2015 with the
one provided, which again, can be found in the introduction.
Using graphing software, Desmos.com, we create a scatter plot /Figure 1. Scattered Plot of Data

of Table 1. The X-axis will represent the year (2000-2015), and the Y-axis
will represent the population using cephalosporins. Each point will be a year
paired with its population value.

The usage of cephalosporins decreased sharply between 2005 (669) and 2006
(267), then steadily increased after that (Figure 1). This decline is not
explained by a competitive market (Hendersen & Fischer, 2000), while a move
toward novel antibiotics (Front. Pharmacol., 2020) may play a role.

Applying/Testing Functions
Figure 2 Linear Model Fit to Data

1. Linear Function:

First, we will apply the linear function to the data and

observe whether it fits the data or not. The formula of the
linear function used is y = mx + c.

The linear model didn't perfectly fit any data points and
had poor visual representation. This suggests trying the
exponential model for a potentially better fit, despite the
linear model's reasonable R2 value of 0.508.

Figure 3 Exponential Model Fit to Data

2. Exponential Function:

Now that we are done applying/testing the linear function, we can continue to
the exponential. The formula of the exponential function used is y = aekx.

Based on Figure 3, with an R2 value of 0.5485, appears to have a better fit to

the data compared to the linear model, with data points closer to the
exponential curve, suggesting a trend aligned with this function.

A value of 1.7334 · 10-40 & B value of 1.05684

3. Cubic Function: Figure 4 Cubic Model Fit to Data

y = ax3+bx2+cx + d is the formula for the cubic function that is being used.
With an R2 value of 0.633, the cubic function shows a decent match to the data,
according to Figure 4. A high correlation between the model and the data points
is shown by this number. There are a few outliers that sit above or below the
curve line, even though the curve generally coincides with certain spots. This
implies that similar to other functions owing to the data itself, the cubic
function could well represent the general trend but not precisely capture every
single data point.

A value of 0.157154 / B value of -943.395 / C value of 1.8877 x 10 6 / D value of

-1.2591 x 109

Comparing Functions
The exponential model (Figure 1.3) achieved an R2 of 0.5559, indicating a good fit with the data points
clustering around the curve. The cubic function (Figure 1.4), with an R2 value of 0.633, shows an even better
alignment with some data points. We will compare the functions by examining their equations and formulas..

First, we will use existing data points from Table 1 and apply them to the exponential model. Specifically,
we will substitute the year into the “x” variable of the model’s formula (y = aekx) and (y = ax3+bx2+cx + d).

Equation 1.1 Exponential Equation Equation 1.2 FINDING K

To evaluate the accuracy of the exponential model, we can begin by using data
already provided in Table 1. The value could be counted using the formula:

Equation 2. Cubic Function Equation

Next, we evaluate the cubic model's accuracy using the same year (2015) provided
in Table 1. The value could be counted using the formula:

Looking at the results, it can be seen that exponential is the best fit when it comes
to using equations.
Predicting Usage Using Best Fit Function (2030,2040,2050)
Based on the observed trend in the data and limitations of the cubic
function, an exponential model was chosen for a better fit. This model
predicts cephalosporin usage in China to reach 1492 usage in 1000
population, 2428 by 2040, and 3950 by 2050.

Justification
Figure 5 | Exponential Graph (Prediction) vs Actual Value
Graph Comparison

Looking at Figure 5, the exponential

function (line) closely follows the upward
trend of the actual data points (black dot).
For the year 2015, the exponential function
predicts a usage of around 718, which is
very close to the actual data point of 739.
Given how closely the expected result and
the actual data align, it appears that the
exponential function would be the most appropriate choice to represent the data.

Figure 6 | Cubic Graph (Prediction) vs Actual Value

In contrast to the real trend, the

cubic function using the actual
data points produced a (very)
lower value. This implies that our
data may not match the cubic
model as well as it might. Figure
1.6 shows that particular data
points can have an important
impact on the cubic function's
prediction, even if it presents an
individual curve using variables.

Equation 3. Predicting 2015 usage using exponential

Given the data's positive trend and the substantial departure from
the cubic function, an exponential model appears to be a superior fit
for explaining this data.
Since the exponential model could faithfully capture the rising trend
in China's cephalosporin consumption data between 2000 and 2015,
it was chosen (Table 1). The model predicts that consumption will
reach 719 by 2015 based on Figure 5, which is in line with the facts indicating continual rise. This pattern is further
supported by the close fit between the curve of the exponential function and the general upward trend of the data
points on the graph (Figure 5). Even if exponential growth models fit the observed data during this time very well,
there are a few limits that should be noted.

CONCLUSION - REAL-LIFE CONTEXT (MAKES SENSE OR NOT)

There are drawbacks to exponential growth models. The emergence of antibiotic resistance is one cause
that might lead to a decrease in the efficacy of cephalosporins. Furthermore, evolving healthcare practices
—such as a focus on targeted antibiotic use or the development of alternative medications—may
influence the use of cephalosporins in the future. While these limitations should be considered when
assessing the model's long-term effects, it is a helpful tool for understanding past patterns and projecting
short-term results within the period under study.

According to a new study by Song et al. that investigated antibiotic data consumption in China from 2012
to 2017, the future usage of cephalosporins remains complex. The findings were made public in April
2020. The reported dip in antibiotic consumption suggests that the use of cephalosporins may be
declining. Antibiotic stewardship initiatives may also result in more focused prescriptions, reducing the
number of unnecessary cephalosporins. However, countervailing forces do exist. Cephalosporins are
currently the most often used drugs, accounting for 36.32% of total consumption, demonstrating a
persistent reliance. Furthermore, if resistance to other antibiotics increases, cephalosporins may become
the preferred course of treatment, thereby increasing their use. This is where logic is beneficial. An
exponential model may predict that the use of cephalosporins will increase continually, although this is
not always the case throughout time. Antibiotic resistance is more likely to develop as cephalosporins, or
any antibiotic, are used more frequently. Cephalosporins may become less effective as a result of this
resistance, thereby reducing their use. To put it another way, it is impractical to expect everyone to
require cephalosporins at some time, therefore endless exponential increase does not make sense.

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