HOW CAN

BACKCASTING
BE APPLIED FOR
PROBLEM-SOLVING?

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WHAT IS BACKCASTING?

Backcasting is a technique to
view the future desired state
and then work backwards to
define the steps that should be
taken (from the present moment
onwards) to achieve the desired
state.

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Backcasting vs Forecasting

While forecasting aims at predicting

the future based on past trends,
Backcasting works in the opposite
direction, from the desired outcome
to the present. In forecasting, the
past is known, and the result is
predicted from these historical
trends (partially unknown). In
Backcasting, the desired outcome is
known, and the possible things I
need to do to achieve this outcome
are somewhat known.

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In terms of the dependent and
independent variables,
forecasting predicts the future
value of the unknown dependent
variables based on the known
values of the independent
variables. In contrast,
backcasting indicates the
unknown values of the
independent variables to explain
the known value of the
dependent variables.

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 Backcasting from Single and
Multiple Scenarios

Backcasting can be carried out

from a single future desired
scenario or multiple future
scenarios. The individual or the
leadership may need to use various
techniques such as brainstorming,
NGT, Delphi technique, PESTLE,
horizon scanning, cause and effect
diagrams, etc., to list the future
scenarios and home-in to the
desirable and favourable scenarios

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Backcasting on the Individual
Level and Corporate Level

Backcasting can be used on

both the individual and
corporate levels. A common
question during a job interview
is; where do you see yourself in
the next five years? The next
logical step to ask would be;
what are your plans to achieve
that desired outcome? These
questions naturally lead to the
Backcasting process.

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At a Corporate level, Backcasting
may be taken as a strategy-
building exercise examining
various future scenarios and
planning the alternate steps to
achieve these scenarios. The
planning may involve everyday
activities that could apply to all
scenarios to build flexibility in
the planning process. Finally,
differentiation can be made in
choosing the plan that takes the
team closer to the desired future.

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Steps in Backcasting

The fundamental step in

Backcasting is setting goals
and a vision of the future. The
clearer the vision, the greater
will be the motivation to
achieve this goal.

After visualizing the goal, one

must backtrack and work out
the sequence of the steps to
achieve this goal. Working out
the milestones along with the
timeline is an important step.

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Steps in Backcasting

The next step would be to

build as much flexibility in
the plan as possible, the
rapid change in technology
and societal patterns.

Finally, one must work out

the resources required at
each step and milestone to
achieve the future desired
state.

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 Backcasting and the
DMAIC/DMADV Process

The tools used in Lean Six Sigma

DMAIC or DMADV Projects could
also be used in the Backcasting
technique. The Delphi technique
could be used to get a consensus
opinion on what the future could
look like. The tollgates could be
used at each milestone to see if
one is on track and build flexibility
based on the changing future.

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Tools in the Analyse phase
of DMAIC projects, such
as listing the potential
scenarios akin to causes
and identifying the root
causes (main scenarios),
hypothesis testing, design
of experiments, or
simulation can be used to
analyze the various
scenarios.
Learn how to apply backcasting
for problem-solving in our
Green Belt, Black Belt, and
Master Black Belt programs.

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