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Forecast Model Long Pick Dendreon (DNDN,$DNDN) Up More than 80%
Dendreon Corporation discovers and develops immunologically based therapeutic products for the treatment of cancer. Through the use of antigen engineering and proprietary cell separation technologies, Dendreon develops therapeutic vaccines that induce cell-mediated immunity, the body's key defense against cancer. In addition to its products for cancer, Dendreon also intends to pursue the application of its technologies in the fields of autoimmune diseases, allergies and infectious diseases. Dendreon was one of the Health Care picks for our VE Forecast 16 Market Neutral Strategy NEwsletter this month. As an alternate selection, it has made a huge breakout in light of last Thursday's earnings report. When the model selected the stock for the rebalance on December 16th, Dendreon was trading at $7.44/share. Today it is at $13.78/share for a gain of more than 80%. The stock jumped hard on news about its prostate cancer drug Provenge--which costs @$90,000 per course of treatment. ValuEngine has issued a BUY recommendation for DENDREON CORP on Jan. 09, 2012. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that DENDREON CORP has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE 5-year annualized return, market valuation and risk.
Based on available data as of Jan. 09, 2012, we believe that DNDN should be trading at $27.97. This makes DNDN 55.85% undervalued. Fair Value indicates what we believe the stock should be trading at today if the stock market were perfectly efficient and everything traded at its true worth. For DNDN, we base this on actual earnings per share (EPS) for the previous four quarters of -$2.70, forecasted EPS for the next four quarters of -$1.70, and correlations to the 30- year Treasury bond yield of 3.02%.
ValuEngine Forecast Target Price*
1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year 13.09 13.18 13.44 13.15 13.53 13.5
Expected Return
6.03% 6.72% 8.84% 6.48% 9.52% 9.35%
MARKET OVERVIEW
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 74.85% 25.15% 37.60% 6.60%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities
Change
-0.04% 0.89% -0.09% -0.21% 0.00% -0.18% -0.35% 0.04% -0.33% -0.33% 0.54% -0.39% -0.40% -0.59% 0.06% -0.57%
MTD
-0.24% 2.60% -0.19% -0.41% 0.12% 0.76% 0.37% -0.02% -0.23% 0.86% 0.69% -0.16% -0.09% -1.11% 0.55% -1.25%
YTD
-0.24% 2.60% -0.19% -0.41% 0.12% 0.76% 0.37% -0.02% -0.23% 0.86% 0.69% -0.16% -0.09% -1.11% 0.55% -1.25%
Valuation
12.42% undervalued 17.61% undervalued 15.72% undervalued 14.08% undervalued 15.90% undervalued 15.89% undervalued 15.29% undervalued 11.50% undervalued 12.89% undervalued 12.72% undervalued 19.00% undervalued 12.16% undervalued 12.95% undervalued 5.80% undervalued 11.56% undervalued 5.29% undervalued
Last 12MReturn
-11.41% 30.95% -23.80% 2.71% -14.07% -19.58% -6.73% -3.73% -6.59% -7.86% 6.53% -10.47% -15.98% 2.14% -16.20% 1.55%
P/E Ratio
16.09 14.18 22.25 28.97 42.6 39.59 26.75 17.79 19.97 23.33 34.27 14.17 38.35 22.64 19.83 28.55