EECS 140: Engineering Probability

Dr. Paniz Ebrahimi

paniz@uci.edu
Office hours: Mon, Wed 11-12pm at Engineering Hall-4428

EECS 140 Lecture #1

Discussion Sessions
TA for the class: Sina Poorkasmai, spoorkas@uci.edu Discussions sessions: Fridays 12-12:50 and 1-1:50 at SE2 1304 (recently changed) Office hours: Tue 5-7pm, Thu 5-8pm at ? (TBD)

EECS 140 Lecture #1

Grading Policy
Home works + Quizzes (0.5 weight): 20% Midterm on Feb 15: 35% Final 45% Home works will be posted every Friday on the website and will be due on the beginning of class the following Friday. No late homework is accepted but the worst homework will not be counted.
EECS 140 Lecture #1 3

What to expect
Class website: http://eee.uci.edu/12w/18080/ This class introduces many new concepts which build on top of each other so following the course is very important. Participate in the class, ask questions, Go to the discussion session, do your HWs and read the book. Follow the pace and you will do well !
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What is probability
The theory of probability attempts to quantify the notion of probable. Probability is the measure of the likeliness of a random event happening. Interest in probability due to gambling for a millenia Modern probability: ~1650-today
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Why do we study Probability Theory?

An effective model of uncertainty Decision Making under uncertainty

Examples: - Waiting time at a Banks teller. - Value of a stock at a given day. - A customer buying behavior. One Decision Making Process: Collect Data, Model the Phenomenon, extrapolate and make decisions

Engineering Applications of Probability

Communications

wireless (randomly fluctuating environment)

Test engineers process data, design for reliability

What this class is about

Introduction to (Engineering) Probability
Combinatorial Analysis (Counting) Axioms and Properties of Probability
How to use them to calculate the probability of events

Conditional Probability, Independence Random Variables (Probability density functions)

Discrete, continuous, jointly-distributed

Expected Values How to use simple statistics to summarize data

Probability as a long term relative frequency

Repeat the Experiment:
Toss a fair coin N times Relative frequency is NOT 50% at all times Relative frequency gets closer to 50% for larger N H n(H) N 1 1 T 1 2 T 1 3 H 2 4 T 2 5 H 3 6 T 3 7 H 4 8 H 5 9 T 5 10

100*n(H) /N (%)

100%

50% 33%

50%

40%

50%

42%

50%

55% 50%

Characteristics of PMD in real fiber

Evolution of polarization through high PMD fiber
Circular polarization Linear polarization Elliptical polarization

DGD

Input polarizations

Output polarizations

PMD is a random process The probability density function of DGD is Maxwellian.

Maxwellian Distribution
Probability of Exceeding a Specific DGD (%)
50 10 1 0.1

Probability Distribution (arbitrary units)

Maxwellian distribution tail

20

40

60

80

100

Differential Group Delay (ps)

System degradation occurs due to the non-zero tail of the distribution.

Unspooled fiber with PMD

100

PMD= 0.06ps/km1/2
Maxwellian fit DGD distribution

Different fiber ensembles (PMD states) are tested in a short amount of time with this set up.
Optical Communications Laboratory

80

Count

60 40 20 0 0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

USC

DGD (ps)

Probability Density Function of DGD for the Emulator with polarization rotators
3 sections 15 sections
Normalized DGD distribution

DGD (ps)

N=15 sections of PM fiber give Maxwellian distribution