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Exercise 8-16

Assumptions:

The probability distribution of the cereal boxes is approximately normal. Although n is not a large number, it can be considered sufficient for this case as the standard deviation is low and we should not expect values to be oddly distributed considering that the process is automated and that if the boxes were overflowing or severely under-filled, someone on the production line should have noticed the discrepancy. Ideally this distribution should closely match the standard normal distribution, and thus we can assume it does.

 Given: α = .05 n = 16 u = 24 ounces a) H O : u = 24 H A : u ≠ 24 b)

x = 24.32

 = .7 ounces

First we find

using the normal distribution table, which provides us two z values as follows:

Z / 2 = Z .05 / 2 = Z .025

[we divide the alpha level by two because this is a two tailed test]

z / 2 =− Z .025 =− 1.96

z / 2 = Z .025 = 1.96

If z > 1.96 or if z < -1.96, we will reject the null hypothesis [

hypothesis.

H O

], otherwise we will not reject the null

We now find z using

x

u

z =

n

plugging in our variables, leads us to the following solution for z:

z =

24.3224

.7

16

=

.32

.7

4

=

.32

.175

z = 1.8285714 1.83

Because -1.96 < z = 1.83 < 1.96, we do not reject the null hypothesis. The process is working accurately and there is insufficient evidence for the production control manager to implement any changes. At a 5% level of significance, there is insufficient evidence to claim the automated packaging machine is filling boxes at an average mean other than 24 ounces.

If a customer receives a box containing only 22-23 ounces of cereal, when a 24 ounce size is advertised on the box, they will not understand how there is insufficient evidence to support that the company is filling boxes at a level other than 24 ounces [even though they have the proof in their hands]. A two tailed test ensures that both sides of the distribution are being accounted for. Although the manager may have chosen u >= 24 as a null hypothesis in a one tail to ensure the company is not giving away cereal, a customer would likely desire to see the results of u <= 24. The two tail test appeases both ends of the spectrum and allows the company to continue claiming they are selling 24 ounce boxes until proven otherwise.

d)

To find p-value, we must first find, P(z > 1.83)

To find P(z > 1.83) we first find P(z <= 1.83) and then subtract P(z <= 1.83) from .5 to obtain P(z >

1.83).

Since P(z <= 1.83) = .4664, thus P(z > 1.83) = .5-.4664 = .0336

To obtain the p-value, we must multiply the .0336 by 2 because we are using a two tail hypothesis test and must account for both ends of the distribution.

Thus the p-value = .0336 * 2 = .0672

Since .0672 > than α = .05, we do not reject the null hypothesis.

e)

As I did not reject the null hypothesis, I may have committed a type II error by not rejecting the null hypothesis when in fact it may have been false. Increasing the sample size would improve the accuracy of my results and further validate my answer or show that the null hypothesis was in fact false.