10 Key Trends in 2011

10 Key Trends in
Food, Nutrition &

Health 2011
by Julian Mellentin

Published by
Report
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This edition printed December 2010
The Centre for Food & Health Studies Limited 2010
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data.
A catalogue record for this case study is available from the British Library.
ISBN: 978-1-906297-43-5
INTRODUCTION
10 Key Trends in Food, Nutrition & Health 2011 ........................................................................................................................3-6
Methodology...............................................................................................................................................................................4

10 KEY TRENDS
Key Trend 1: Digestive health the biggest growth opportunity ................................................................................................. 7-14
The digestive health success story .............................................................................................................................. 7
Probiotics and digestive health ................................................................................................................................... 8
Juice: the next digestive health growth opportunity ..................................................................................................... 9
Fibre the biggest untapped opportunity ................................................................................................................... 11
Logical categories for bre .......................................................................................................................................... 13
Key Trend 2: Energy a wealth of new opportunities? .............................................................................................................. 15-18
Super-premium pricing ............................................................................................................................................... 18
Beyond the caffeinated beverage ................................................................................................................................ 18

Key Trend 3: Feel the benet the most powerful marketing message ...................................................................................... 19-21
1. Feel the benet ....................................................................................................................................................... 19
2. Measure the benet and show it to them ................................................................................................................ 20
3. Support the effect with science ............................................................................................................................... 21
4. The risk of an intangible benet .............................................................................................................................. 21
Key Trend 4: Fruit the future of food and health ..................................................................................................................... 22-24
Key Trend 5: Weight management ............................................................................................................................................ 25-29
Unexpected changes and challenges ......................................................................................................................... 25
Satiety promises a lot .................................................................................................................................................. 27
A service, not just a product ....................................................................................................................................... 29
Key Trend 6: Naturally healthy and ultra-convenient ................................................................................................................. 30-33
Coconut water ............................................................................................................................................................ 32
Snacking and marketing ............................................................................................................................................. 32
Key Trend 7: Packaging and premiumisation ............................................................................................................................ 34-36
Differentiation through packaging ............................................................................................................................... 34
Concentrated dose ..................................................................................................................................................... 35
Premium is the goal .................................................................................................................................................... 35
Key Trend 8: Antioxidants: popular but future uncertain? .......................................................................................................... 37-40
Everyday message no longer offers a point of difference ............................................................................................. 38
Regulators sights set on antioxidants.......................................................................................................................... 38
Key Trend 9: Immunitys regulatory and marketing speed-bumps............................................................................................... 41-43

Key Trend 10: Bones and movement ........................................................................................................................................ 44-46
MICRO-TRENDS
Micro-Trend 1: Protein ............................................................................................................................................................ 47-49
Food matrix and product format key for credibility ...................................................................................................... 48

Micro-Trend 2: The reinvention of dairy ................................................................................................................................... 50-51
Sat fat ght ................................................................................................................................................................. 50
Sports recovery revival ................................................................................................................................................ 51
Bone health and vitamin D ......................................................................................................................................... 51
Contents
1
4
www.new-nutrition.com New Nutrition Business 2010
COMPANIES AND BRANDS IN THIS REPORT
5-Hour Energy .......................................16,17,18,20
Amp.......................................................................17
Applied Nutritional Research ...............................49
Bimbo ...............................................................13,14
Biothera Wellmune GP .........................................41
BLIS Throat Guard ..............................................57
Booster Broccoli ...............................................30,31
Brassica Protection Products .................................34
BroccoSprouts .............................................30,31,34
Campbells Soups ...................................................27
Coca-Cola .............................................................17
Compal Essencial ..................................................24
Danone Actimel .....................................41,42,43,57
Danone Activia ...................7,8,9,10,11,14,20,21,36
Danone Danacol ...................................................54
Danone Danimals .................................................55
Danone Danino ....................................................60
Danone Dan-o-nino ........................................55, 56
Danone Densia .....................................................46
Danone Vitalinea Safisfaccion ..............................28
Danone Zen ..........................................................58
Danone .............................................7,9,10,20,23,55
Drank ....................................................................59
Dream Water ........................................................59
Elations ........................................................20,44,45
Ellas Kitchen ..................................................55, 56
Emminent .............................................................17
Ezaki Glico GABA ................................................58
Fonterra Anlene ......................19,20,21,36,44,45,46
Fonterra ..............................19,20,21,36,44,45,46,49
Fortitech ................................................................59
Gefilus .........................................................24,43,57
General Mills Fiber One ..........................7,11,12,14
James White Drinks Beet It .......................30,31,36
Joint Juice .........................................................44,45
Kellogg Fiber Plus .........................................7,10,12
Kelloggs Special K ..................19,20,21,25,28,29,49
Liptons ..................................................................58
Living Essentials ....................................................16
Mary Janes Relaxing Soda ...................................59
Mini Chill ..............................................................59
Monster Hitman ...................................................17
Natures Plus Animal Parade Tooth Fairy ............59
Naturlinea .............................................................29
Nescaf Green Blend ............................................39
Nestl Boost Kid Essentials ...................................42
Nestl .................................................23,38,39,42,58
NeuroTrim ............................................................27
Norrmejerier Gainomax Recovery .......................51
NOS ......................................................................17
Oasis Health Break ...............................................43
Ocean Spray Craisins ......................................22,24
Paramount Farms.............................................32,33
PepsiCo .................................................................17
Pom Wonderful ...........................................23,37,38
Probake50 .............................................................49
Progresso High Fiber ...........................................14
Provita ...................................................................49
ProViva .................................................7,9,10,23,57
Quorn ..............................................................47,48
Red Bull ......................................................17,18,19
Sara Lee Soft & Smooth Plus ...............................60
Shamrock Farms Rockin Refuel ..........................51
Sirco ......................................................................54
SlimFast ............................................................27,28
Valio .................................................................43,57
Vitaminwater ........................................................53
WeightWatchers ..........................................25,26,28
Wonderful Pistachios ........................................32,33
Yakult .................................................................7,14
Yoplait Yo Plus ..................................................7,8,9
Micro-Trend 3: The rise of vitamin D ........................................................................................................................................ 52-53
Micro-Trend 4: Ageing population, good science lift cholesterol-lowering ................................................................................ 54
Ceiling in Europe ........................................................................................................................................................ 54
New niches ................................................................................................................................................................ 54
Micro-Trend 5: The kids market where natural and convenient beat fortication .................................................................... 55-56
Dairys advantages ...................................................................................................................................................... 56
Micro-Trend 6: Probiotics new niches ..................................................................................................................................... 57
Gum holds promise .................................................................................................................................................... 57
A future of small niches .............................................................................................................................................. 57
Micro-Trend 7: Stress, relaxation and sleep ............................................................................................................................. 58-59
Micro-Trend 8: Omega-3 needs better technology to achieve break out .................................................................................... 60-61
Strategy re-think ......................................................................................................................................................... 61
Better taste and dose the way ahead .......................................................................................................................... 61
RDIs not the answer ................................................................................................................................................... 61
Charts
Chart 1: The top consumer health concerns ...................................................................................................................... 5
Chart 2: The nutritional product life cycle where the trends sit ......................................................................................... 6
Chart 3: Ageing populations drive digestive health market growth in Asia as well as Europe and the US .............................. 9
Chart 4: The rise and fall of Yoplait YoPlus and the rise and rise of Danone Activia ........................................................... 10
Chart 5: Recession-proof digestive health the rise and rise of Fiber One ........................................................................... 11
Chart 6: Sales surge for Kelloggs Fiber Plus digestive health expert brand ....................................................................... 12
Chart 7: Energy drinks are premium-priced but daily dose energy shots are super-premium ............................................... 16
Chart 8: Energy shots the creation of a new category ........................................................................................................ 17
Chart 9: Change in body weight during the Diogenes study ................................................................................................. 26
Chart 10: Energy drinks are premium-priced but daily dose energy shots are super-premium ............................................. 35
Chart 11: US number of new food and beverage product launches each year which mention antioxidants....................... 40
Chart 12: Europe number of new food and beverage product launches each year which mention antioxidants ................ 40
Chart 13: Global meat demand on the increase .................................................................................................................. 48
2
3
At the end of each year we publish our annual forecast
of the 10 key trends in the business of food, nutrition
and health.
These are the trends that are the underlying key
drivers for our industry not fads or short-term
developments which quickly appear and disappear. They
are the important trends which will shape the business
of food and health not only in the 12 months ahead, but
for many years beyond that. Its because we only include
those with staying power that our list of trends doesnt
change dramatically from year-to-year. This long-term
focus enables companies to formulate their plans,
innovation and strategy around our trends analysis, as
many companies tell us they do.
For us a key trend is one which is very clearly a
growth opportunity something that a company
can connect to in order to earn additional
volumes, additional sales and extra prots.
When trying to identify which trends your company
should connect to, its essential to distinguish between
those that are big, well-established and have little or no
growth potential, and those which have high growth
potential.
Consumer research often identies consumer insights
which are then used as guides to strategy that are
in fact only descriptions of trends that have already
reached maturity and have no more upside potential.
What it doesnt do often enough is spot the issues which
matter to only a small group of people perhaps only
30% of consumers. Counter-intuitively, it is these
10 Key Trends in Food,
Nutrition & Health 2011
10 Key Trends 2011
KEY TRENDS FOR 2011
1. Digestive health
2. Energy
3. Feel the benet
4. Fruit: the future of food and health
5. Weight management
6. Naturally healthy and ultra-convenient
7. Packaging and premiumisation
8. Antioxidants
9. Immunity
10. Bones and movement
MICRO-TRENDS FOR 2011
We also identify and analyse the Micro-Trends
the secondary growth opportunities and the
growth opportunities which are perhaps stalled
or only growing very slowly at present pending
developments in technology or marketing which
can accelerate growth.
These are developments which are not yet
signicant but we think could become so:
1. Protein power
2. The reinvention of dairy
3. Vitamin D
4. Cholesterol-lowering
5. Kids nutrition naturalness rules
6. Probiotics new niches
7. Relaxation/stress
8. Omega-3
Free-from artificial additives is not a trend: By
our definition, a trend is something that you can connect
to in order to earn higher sales and profits. Being all-
natural used to be such a trend, but is no longer. Its now
a standard consumer requirement of foods and beverages
in all categories and its by far the most common message
in the supermarket and it wont give you a point of
difference. A trend without the potential for growth is not
a trend, its just an observation.
4
insights which are often the key trends that will drive
your business.
Lets take two trends as an example digestive health
and all natural. In one sense, it is true that consumers
desire for foods to be as natural as possible is the
biggest trend. In detail it means that consumers want
foods to be free-from everything they think is bad
usually interpreted as free-from articial preservatives,
colours or avours. It has become a common message in
the mass market, with every brand that can do so now
reformulated to deliver the free-from bad ingredients
promise.
But in fact its a trend of no commercial value; it has
become a category standard for the food and beverage
industry, something that almost every brand must do
if it can, but it is no longer a point of difference (as it
was seven or more years ago). Delivering a free-from
or natural product will not give you any extra sales
volume or a higher price, its just what consumers expect
you to do. A trend without the potential for growth
through differentiation, to achieve higher volume or
higher value is not a trend, its just an observation.
By contrast, digestive health remains an area where
sales of products with that benet are growing indeed
have proven to be recession-proof in many countries.
We are condent that, like many companies all over
the world that already use our trends research to inform
their innovation, R&D and marketing strategies, you
will nd our 2011 trends report an invaluable weapon in
your armoury.
10 Key Trends 2011
METHODOLOGY
To pick which trends truly offer growth opportunities, we analyse data from a broad range of sources, listed below.
This is just a snap-shot of a complex, 12-month-long process that weve been developing since 1995.
Consumer research: what consumers say they believe, what they say they need and what they say they are going to
do. We use consumer research from a wide range of sources.
Retail sales in the supermarket: what consumers actually do (often very different from the above), using data
from Symphony IRI, Nielsen and gures supplied to us by companies.
Nutrition science: what is emerging in nutrition science that will lead to new opportunities to communicate new
benets, to better substantiate existing ones or to change the way we think about everyday foods and beverages.
Technology: what are the constraints in terms of ingredients and technology which might limit the consumer appeal
of a certain type of food product and what developments are allowing companies to create new products with new
benets or improve those already on the market and so create growth potential.
Regulation: what you can and cant say. What you might not be allowed to say in future, and how to get round that
and what you might be allowed to claim that you werent expecting to.
Marketing innovations: what are the innovations in marketing and packaging and communications across all
categories and can they be applied to the trend under examination to create rapid growth?
Strategies: what successful strategies can be applied to the trend under examination. Is it executable? Is it possible
to borrow strategies from other categories to make it work? Regular readers of our work will know that we follow
the research of leading business thinkers carefully, from Clayton Christensen (the father of the concept of disruptive
innovation) to CK Prahalad and Gary Hamel.
Consumer psychology: what are the consumer beliefs in relation to a certain category or health benet? There are
few food psychologists but each year we interview the leading thinkers in the eld, such as Professor Brian Wansink,
director of the Food & Brand Lab at Cornell University and an adviser on the psychology of food and health to
companies and governments.
Business psychology: what does industry believe about this trend or category that will cause companies to follow a
trend or ignore it. Are there any white space opportunities that are being ignored or overlooked perhaps because
they dont t with existing strategies?
Industry executives: our 450-500 interviews a year with executives in food, beverage and ingredients that enable
us to understand what their priorities, challenges, successes and failures and opportunities are. We look at how these
can be applied across trends and categories.
5
Chart 1: The top consumer health concerns (things that affect them
personally)
Health Focus Internationals studies in 32 countries around the world are probably the food
industrys most-respected and most widely-used insights into consumers food and health beliefs.
The chart below summarises the key areas that are highest on consumers agendas.
Note that Digestive Problems and Tiredness/Lack of Energy are also the biggest segments of the
functional foods market and the two which our own research indicates have the most signicant
growth potential (see Key Trend 1 and Key Trend 2).
Overweight is also consistently, and unsurprisingly, a major area of consumer interest and is still
a signicant growth opportunity (Key Trend 5).
All of the other areas represent future growth opportunities the common factor preventing Stress
and Sleep (see Micro-Trend 7) from being a major market is only that no one has yet worked out
an effective marketing strategy to address these consumer needs, nor has anyone yet settled on
effective technology.
Frequent colds/u immune health is an important area (Key Trend 9), but regulatory,
marketing and technical challenges have so far prevented it from fullling its potential.

Note that for any products which address the concerns identied by Health Focus research to be
successful with consumers, they would need to deliver a feel the benet advantage (see Key
Trend 3).
Source: Health Focus International
10 Key Trends 2011
6
Chart 2: The nutrional product life cycle where the trends sit
The chart below was developed to aid understanding of brand positioning and the evolution of markets. Many products start out
on the left, targeting consumers who have a need for a product that has effective technology. They sell in low volumes at premium
prices but over time their appeal increases and they move down the price curve to the right, eventually becoming mass-market
products. Few functional foods have yet made this transition many companies deliberately target the lifestyle area as a way of
creating a defensible niche and maintaining premium prices. Below we show where some of the Key Trends and the Micro-Trends
and the brands that are working with these trends currently sit on the life-cycle. The stages of the life cycle are:
Technology consumers These are the early adopters, people who have a near-medical need for a product. They need the
technology of the functional food to address their health condition. They see products in a medicalised context and, as with drugs,
they will pay a substantial premium for something that addresses their condition.
Lifestyle consumers They are interested in maintaining their wellness, not fighting illness. They will adopt new brands and will pay
a premium for a product but only if it supports their lifestyle.
Mass-market consumers They are motivated when a benefit becomes a standard and is available in products with low or no
premiums, ideally from well-known and trusted brands.
Source: Mellentin & Wennstrm, The Food & Health Marketing Handbook
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMERS
LIFESTYLE
CONSUMERS
MASS-MARKET
CONSUMERS
Solid line = sales volumes
Broken line = unit selling price
6% - 8% of consumers 20% - 25% of consumers 67% - 74% of consumers
SALES
TIME
Omega-3
Protein
Bones &
movement
Fruit & superfruit
Weight
management
Energy
Digestive health
Heart &
cholesterol
Naturally healthy
10 Key Trends 2011
7
THE DIGESTIVE HEALTH
SUCCESS STORY
The market for products that offer the benefit of
improved digestive health has developed into an
enduring success story. Its now the biggest segment of
the functional foods market after energy drinks and
looks set to stay that way. It is also possibly the fastest-
growing segment of health and the evidence is that its
growth will continue.
Worldwide, the value to consumers of products
that can help them maintain good digestive health is
reflected in the outstanding performance of the few
brands that have made delivering this benefit their
cornerstone. Consider the following:
Danone Activia grew its sales by 14% in the US
yoghurt market (in a category that grew 7%) to a
total of $438.5 million (329.4 million).
In markets such as Germany and the UK, Activia
maintained its growth, increasing sales by 10% in
the UK to become the countrys biggest yoghurt
brand with $380 million (285.4 million) in sales,
despite the brand no longer using any overt health
claim.
General Mills Fiber Ones growth slowed to
2% after years of meteoric growth (see Chart 5).
However, the core products of breakfast cereals and
bars still grew 4%, the overall figure being reduced
by the poor performance of over-ambitious brand
extensions into different categories, few of which
can be expected to survive.
Kellogg Fiber Plus, the fast-emerging rival to Fiber
One in the US, grew its sales 47% to $66 million
(50 million).
Sales of Yakult grew by 40% in the US and 18% in
most parts of Asia with a 27% jump in Indonesia,
already one of the worlds biggest markets for
Yakult.
ProViva probiotic juice grew 8% in 2010 in Sweden
to 28 million litres, making it one of Europes most
successful functional beverages (see below).
Sales of probiotic dietary supplements grew 29% to
$530 million (389 million) in the US market.
10 Key Trends 2011 Digestive Health
SUMMARY
Recession proof: Products for digestive health have recently proven themselves to be almost recession-proof, even when selling
at premium prices. It has become clear that while consumers are willing to economise in some areas, maintaining good digestive
health is one area where committed consumers remain loyal to brands that they can trust, even when they are premium-priced.
This is a testament to the power of feel the benefit (see Key Trend 3).
Be first to market: A key lesson from the experience of the digestive health market is that in every category theres usually only
room for one or at most two significant brands with digestive health benefits. In the US, for example, Danone Activia is 10 times
the size of its next-biggest competitor Yoplait YoPlus, with all other brands trailing even further behind.
Dairy well-established: In probiotic products, dairy is dominant and it will remain so. The dairy category is now well-
established and in most countries there are few or no opportunities for new probiotic dairy brands. Any new player in dairy will
effectively be a me-too and any brand that finds itself in third place in the market today will probably fail to climb up the rankings.
Probiotic fruit juice promise: In probiotics for digestive health the biggest growth opportunity lies in probiotic fruit juice, an
opportunity proven in Scandinavia and now reinforced through Danones move into the category in 2010.
Digestive juice the big opportunity: Juice for digestive health whether its probiotic or fibre-fortified is the emerging
biggest opportunity of the next decade. Juice will not rival dairy but it will take a large niche position. No other food forms will have
more than a toehold.
Proven effective products will stand out: Fibre is at last coming of age and added fibre will become an industry standard
in many categories such as bread. That means theres a clear opportunity and need for products to make claims based on
human clinical studies which demonstrate their effectiveness and help differentiate these clinically proven products from the many
products fortified with low levels of fibre which are flooding onto the market.
Be an expert brand: The biggest opportunity in fibre lies in the potential to create fibre expert brands similar to the
probiotic expert brands Activia and Yakult which deliver an effective dose of fibre so that people can feel the benefit. Such
brands should also be supported by adequate marketing investment. The first one to emerge was General Mills Fiber One, which
has achieved 20% annual growth even at premium prices and even in a recession.
Digestive health the biggest growth opportunity
Key Trend 1:
8
Consumers need help with
digestion
It is also worth noting that the most successful digestive
health brands have succeeded despite being sold at
premium prices. The benefit of good digestive health
is one for which a sizeable minority of consumers are
willing to pay.
Digestive disorders (ranging from diarrhea to
constipation, bloating and discomfort) are felt by
everyone from time-to-time, owing to a range of factors
including diet, stress and demanding lifestyles.
The most common gut health issue worldwide
is constipation and its high prevalence and adverse
implications on quality of life and health state make
constipation a major public health issue acco rding
to the largest study of the literature, by Peppas et al,
published in the journal BMC Gastroenterology. According
to medical literature the reported constipation rate
worldwide is 17.1%. Among women the incidence of
constipation is three times that found among men. Some
studies have found the prevalence of constipation as
high as 35% and its as common a problem in Asia as in
Europe and the US.
While digestive health has wide appeal, the core
buyers of such products are:
Women. Women are three times more likely than men
to suffer from constipation. Bloating is a pervasive issue
for women worldwide. Advertisements for Activia have
cleverly used an image of a balloon inflating to convey
bloating and then deflating to convey Activias part in
solving the problem.
Over-40s. Digestive health becomes a more important
issue for people as they age. Episodes of constipation
become more frequent, this trend being continuous
in women and more marked in men over the age
of 60. For example, a study (Chiarelli et al) showed
constipation prevalence among 1823 year olds was
14.1%, rising to 26.6% among 4550-year-olds. Just
look at the demographics: the rapid aging of the baby-
boomer cohort (most Asian countries have a rapid rise
in over-50s, just as the West does, as Chart 3 shows)
makes it clear that the digestive health market will
continue to thrive.
PROBIOTICS AND DIGESTIVE
HEALTH
Probiotics in dairy
The dairy category is now well-established and in most
countries there are few or no opportunities for new
probiotic dairy brands. Any new player in dairy will
effectively be a me-too and any brand that finds itself in
third place in the market today will struggle to climb up
the rankings.
A key lesson from the experience of the digestive
health market is that in every category theres usually
only room for one or at most two significant brands with
digestive health benefits. All other brands are seen by
consumers as me-toos and perform as me-toos in most
markets none have been able to challenge the leadership
of Activia, for example, in large part because they
bring no point of difference, nor do any of these rival
brands marketing strategies incorporate any of the best-
practices which have been developed around Activia.
One of the best examples of the failed me-too
probiotic dairy strategy is Yoplait YoPlus yoghurt in
the US market. Launched in 2007, YoPlus shows
signs of having achieved just $40 million (29 million)
in sales by mid-2010, giving it a share of just 1% of
Americas $3.9 billion (3.16 billion) yoghurt market,
compared to a robust 10.46% for Activia (see Chart 4).
TABLE 1: ADDED FIBRE PRODUCTS,
GLOBAL LAUNCHES 2005 AND 2010
2005 2010 Percentage
change
Bakery 72 133 85%
Beverages 43 75 74%
Breakfast cereals 45 125 170%
Confectionery 33 17 -48%
Dairy 25 53 112%
Desserts & ice cream 7 21 200%
Fruit & veges 6 24 300%
Meals/meal centres 2 22 1000%
Side dishes 7 10 43%
Snacks 42 102 142%
Soup 14 14 0%
TABLE 2: HIGH FIBRE PRODUCTS,
GLOBAL LAUNCHES 2005 AND 2010
2005 2010 Percentage
change
Bakery 143 245 71%
Beverages 35 63 80%
Breakfast cereals 145 272 88%
Confectionery 5 13 160%
Dairy 20 48 140%
Desserts & ice cream 2 8 300%
Fruit & veges 30 59 96%
Meals/meal centres 12 31 158%
Side dishes 24 41 71%
Snacks 121 223 84%
Soup 15 17 13%
Mintel GNPD data shows huge growth in products talking about their bre
content
9
YoPluss problem was that it brought nothing new to
the segment, and hence it has fallen behind Danone
irreversibly in the battle for supremacy in the US
probiotic yogurt category.
There is a legitimate concern in Europe that the
EUs track-record of declining health claims for
probiotic products will mean the disappearance of
probiotic health claims. That is almost certainly the
case. It will become a barrier-to-entry for new brands
and will actually benefit established brands, such
as Activia and ProViva, which have a high level of
consumer belief because of their feel the benefit
advantage (see Key Trend 3).
Success, fortunately, isnt just about health claims.
Its worth noting that ProViva, one of Europes most
successful probiotics, has never carried a digestive
health claim on its label the product just works very
effectively, and the experience of the benefit becomes
the reason to purchase. And Activia has not seen
any let-up in its sales growth, despite scaling back or
dropping the use of its health claim, partly because
the brand gives a clear effect and partly because
Danone has continued to bring out new variants,
such as Intensely Creamy, an indulgent product
which became an immediate success in Germany and
the UK, and Snack Pots, which increase the brands
convenience appeal. Danone has also cleverly added
new services, such as a personal training programme,
in many countries, which take the brand beyond a
product into the arena of a service.
Probiotics in solid foods
Seeing how Activia and other brands dominate
probiotic dairy and how that category now has few
gaps, many companies have reasoned that the next
big opportunities for probiotics for digestive health
might lie in bars, ice cream, cheese or other solid foods.
Unfortunately, they dont. These are all formats that
have been tried again and again in European markets
and have universally failed or at best had very
modest sales. A similar story is unfolding in the US
market, with bars and most other probiotic solid foods
producing weak sales. Probiotic solid foods are a blind
alley for product developers.
JUICE: THE NEXT DIGESTIVE
HEALTH GROWTH
OPPORTUNITY
The next big transformation in probiotics for digestive
health will also be driven by Danone, this time with
the global roll-out of a Swedish innovation which has
become one of the most successful functional brands
in Europe.
Its not a dairy product but a probiotic fruit juice,
called ProViva. It has grown its sales consistently every
year since it debuted in Sweden in 1994, even growing
8% in the depths of the recession to total sales of over
NEWNUTRITION BUSINE
Chart 3: Ageing populations drive digestive health market growth in Asia as
well as Europe and the US
20% of Asia is >50 years old now, rising to 40% by 2030
The core consumer for health is aged 40-60 (esp 50+). They have high disposable income and
when it comes to health, they are not price-sensitive provided a product delivers a benet that
they see as relevant and credible. Ageing populations = continuing growth for products with
health benets.
EWNUTRIT
10
$75 million (55 million) impressive in a country
with just nine million people (pro rata those sales to the
US and ProViva would be a $2.1 billion annual-sales
brand, as big a success as Danones blockbuster Activia
brand). During the economic downturn consumers
could have switched to a 25% cheaper, non-probiotic
juice from the same manufacturer, but ProVivas
digestive health benefit was compelling enough to keep
their loyalty.
Now Danone has signed a 10-year license agreement
with Swedish probiotic science company Probi which
developed and markets the L. plantarum 299v probiotic
strain, the active ingredient in ProViva which allows
Danone to use Probis technology in probiotic fruit
drinks for digestive health. Simultaneously, Danone also
acquired 51% of the ProViva brand from the Swedish
dairy co-operative which owns the brand. It sets the
stage for a global roll-out of a brand which is one of the
most innovative and successful of the past decade.
Theres no secret to ProVivas success a clinically-
proven digestive health benefit that you can quickly feel,
an innovative and truly differentiated product, and taste
so good that by itself its a reason for people to buy
the product, have attracted a huge following even in a
country thats traditionally highly dairy-focused.
In fact juice for digestive health whether its
probiotic or fibre-fortified is the emerging
opportunity of the next decade. Juice drinks
can do what almost no other category can do and
deliver digestive health benefits in a highly-convenient,
drinkable format.
Its our belief that fruit juice for digestive health is
one category that can provide consumers with a viable
Kelloggs Fiber Plus bars, which deliver a dose of 9g of fiber
from inulin per bar or 35% of the RDV are showing signs
of being able to rival Fiber One in the expert brand stakes.
Marketed with the message Tastes Better than Fiber One!
provocatively placed on the front of the package, Fiber Plus bars
achieved first year sales of over $50 million (26 million).
Chart 4: The rise and fall of Yoplait YoPlus and the rise and rise of
Danone Activia
In the wake of Danone Activias immediate success in 2006, the year it debuted in the US,
Yoplait launched its me-too, YoPlus. Yoplait had missed the opportunity to pioneer and lead the
market.
Source: Infoscan Reviews, SymphonyIRI Group - the leading global provider of enterprise market information solutions
Sales
($
millions)
0
$131.93
(108.39)
D
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(8.16)
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Y
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(270.93)
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(314.69)
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(33.21)
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11
alternative to dairy. The factors that favour juice:
First a cross-over with the big fruit trend (see Key
Trend 4). Fruit appeals to all types of consumers,
has little or no negatives associated with it and can
be delivered in highly convenient packages to allow
individual, on-the-go consumption advantages
that few other categories can match.
Fruit juice also has the advantage that in
consumers minds fruit is already associated in a
natural and credible way with the digestive health
message. Fruits such as fig, pear, prune, plum, kiwi,
rhubarb and many others have a traditional
association with digestive health in many countries.
For the sizeable niche of consumers who would
like to consume products with digestive health
benefits but want them in a non-dairy form
there are currently no convenient, good-tasting
alternatives available. There are significant groups
of consumers, particularly in Asia and Africa, who
perceive dairy products as having disadvantages
in terms of their content of fat or lactose or who
just want to have a plant-based diet or who simply
arent used to the taste of dairy.
Key to success in juice will be:
Delivering an effective dose of fibre or probiotic
bacteria so that people can feel the benefit (Key
Trend 3).
Making sure the package is eye-catching and
extremely convenient (see Key Trend 7).
Supporting the brand with adequate marketing and
a long-term growth plan.
Danone is developing the probiotic juice segment
with a well-proven product concept, but there is no
equivalent successful fibre-fortified juice a clear
opportunity for someone.
FIBRE THE BIGGEST
UNTAPPED OPPORTUNITY
In fact, fibre is arguably a bigger opportunity
than probiotics. Products that make a virtue of their
fibre content are being launched in ever-increasing
numbers (see Tables 1 and 2).
But the almost universal approach taken with fibre
by most brands (perhaps 95% of all products launched)
has been along the lines of the fibre make-over. But
while adding a small quantity of fibre perhaps going
as high as 20% of the RDI per serve may add a little
to the health halo of your product, it doesnt create
a compelling reason to purchase. Your competitors
products can also easily offer the same quantity of fibre
and after an initial period of consumer interest your
point of difference will disappear.
Its a low-risk but also low-return strategy and
the evidence is that in many categories and markets it
does very little in terms of either increasing volumes of
existing products or getting better profit margins.
But in many perhaps most countries, although
there are many, many brands making nutrition content
Chart 5: Recession-proof digestive health the rise and rise of Fiber One
Sales are in US supermarkets (excl. Wal-Mart)
Source: Infoscan Reviews, Information Resources, Inc. (IRI)
General Mills Fiber One has become the first expert brand in the benefits of fibre. Its extraordinary
growth, despite a recession, shows the value to consumers of a digestive health brand that enables
you to feel the difference.
12
claims such as high in fibre, theres little evidence
that using such claims acts as more than a reassurance
message that consumers like to see on pack. In practice
it does not have much impact in terms of better sales or
margins, nor does it create a point of difference.
Despite the thousands of such products on the
market, the digestive-health-from-fibre market remains
an under-developed opportunity since very few brands
make it a core benefit. The huge success of brands that
do, such as General Mills Fiber One, which delivers
35% or more of the RDI of fibre per serve, shows the
scale of the opportunity.
Fibres five advantages
Today it makes more sense to make fibre and digestive
health a core benefit than at any previous time. Fibre
has some very clear advantages:
Advantage 1 better technology, better taste.
Its easier to formulate fibre into foods and beverages,
and as a result of advances in technology, high-fibre
foods taste better than ever before, with none of the
notes of cardboard that marked out high-fibre foods in
the past.
Advantage 2 consumers need more fibre
and increasingly they know it. Modern diets are
deficient in fibre (on average Americans and Europeans
alike only consume 15g of fibre a day, compared
to a recommended intake of over 25g a day). The
benefits of fibre in the diet are communicated by
health professionals which means it has much more
credibility than less well-known ingredients and most
people recognize that they need more fibre in their diet.
About 80% of Americans are trying to increase their
intake of fibre, according to a study by Tate & Lyle, up
from 70% two years ago.
Advantage 3 an ingredient thats easy
for consumers to accept and a benefit they
easily understand. Fibre is one of the easiest food
ingredients for consumers to accept and its benefits
are easy to understand. Fibre is up there with calcium
and protein as a macro-nutrient that everyone has
heard of, with appeal in the mass market. This is in
sharp contrast with probiotics, which are still new to
consumers in many countries and hence their appeal
in many countries is still strong only among the early
adopters. For some consumers fibre is of itself a benefit,
but for the majority its not fibre thats the benefit, but
fibres promise of the benefit of good digestive health.
Thats true even when advertising makes no reference
to digestive health, focusing only on fibre the link is
already explicit in the mind of the consumer. According
to the study by Tate & Lyle, 87% of US consumers
identify healthy digestion as the main benefit of fibre.
Advantage 4 a feel the benefit promise.
Marketers of products with a digestive health platform
have a big advantage on their side, compared to most
other health benefits, which is that consumers are most
persuaded by and most loyal to products where they
can feel an almost immediate benefit (see Key Trend 3).
With digestive health you very quickly know if a product
gives you the benefit of better digestive health and,
therefore, an improvement in your quality of life. The
lesson from probiotics which also seems to apply in
fibre is that giving an effective dose that works attracts
the most motivated consumers, and by giving a benefit
they can feel this boosts consumer loyalty and creates a
compelling reason to purchase.
Chart 6: Sales surge for Kelloggs Fiber Plus digestive health expert brand
Total sales in US supermarkets, drugstores, and mass merchandise outlets (excluding Wal-Mart).
Source: Infoscan Reviews, SymphonyIRI Group
Sales
($
millions)
0
$3.673
(2.756)
$44.752
(33.590)
$56.692
(42.551)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2009 Latest 52
Weeks Ending
Oct 3, 2010
$9.287
(6.970)
Kelloggs Fiber Plus
ready-to-eat cereal
Kelloggs Fiber Plus Bars
13
Advantage 5 regulation: Europes restrictive health
claims regulation means that many companies remain
reluctant to innovate in ways that might necessitate
making a health claim petition. Thats unsurprising
since more than 80% of health claims have thus far
been rejected by the European Food Safety Authority
(EFSA). Happily, fibre and digestive health is one of
the few areas in which it may be possible to create
new products that deliver benefits based on science
that EFSA may approve. Encouragingly for companies
focused on digestive health, EFSA appears to be looking
favourably on such claims and at the time of writing
EFSA had published a draft guidance document which
sets out its criteria for approving claims in relation to
digestive health, as well as immunity. Broadly, it sets out
its views on acceptable approaches to digestive health
under two headings:
1. Claims on bowel function: EFSA begins by
focusing on constipation (associated with longer
transit time, less frequent bowel movements,
reduced faecal bulk and harder stools and may
contribute to diverticular disease).
2. Claims on gastrointestinal discomfort:
EFSA says that: Reducing gastrointestinal
discomfort is considered a beneficial physiological
effect.
The term prebiotic on the other hand, could well
disappear from use on labels. The commonly-accepted
definition of prebiotic refers to a fibres ability to
promote the growth of beneficial intestinal bacteria.
But essentially EFSA doesnt like the prebiotic concept
and in its latest guidance says that: A clinically
measured increase in levels of beneficial bacteria
in the intestinal tract will not be enough to validate
a health claim. Instead, EFSA would prefer to see
evidence of significant reductions in pathogens or toxic
microorganisms.
In North America, while it is true that regulators are
becoming more demanding in their requirements for
substantiation, there is still more flexibility than under
Europes highly-restrictive system. One approach that
companies can take is to use a structure/function
claim. Such claims describe the role of a nutrient or
dietary ingredient intended to affect normal structure or
function in humans, for example, calcium builds strong
bones. In addition, they may characterize the means by
which a nutrient or dietary ingredient acts to maintain
such structure or function, for example: fibre maintains
bowel regularity.
LOGICAL CATEGORIES FOR
FIBRE
The success of Fiber One clearly shows the potential
in breakfast cereals and bars (although bars are
notably more popular in the US than Europe and are
not favoured by consumers in many markets in Asia).
Another logical place in the consumers mind for
fibre is bread. In some countries theres limited scope
for a high-fibre benefit platform for bread, such as the
Scandinavian countries where the consumers are used
to darker, more traditional breads and hence the bread-
fibre link is already well-established, and consumers
expect all breads to already be high in fibre.
It may be a different story in countries in South
America and Asia where packaged bread is relatively
new. One example is Mexico, where the Bimbo brand,
which dominates the packaged bread market, has
made a huge success with high fibre breads such as Pan
Integral and Bimbo Doble Fibra, the latter selling 25
million loaves in 2009, worth $75 million (57 million)
at retail.
PREBIOTIC IS NICHE
Awareness of fibre can be said to be at mass-market levels in many markets and this may help explain the
rapid success of some of the brands featured in our case studies.
However, if you choose to use a term such as prebiotic meaning a fibre that promotes the growth of
beneficial intestinal bacteria to describe the benefits of your product then this immediately positions you
firmly in the early adopter market.
Anyone wanting to use the term prebiotic is going to have to take a long-term (decade-long) view of educating
the consumer about what it means and what the benefit is. That means that the target group for the prebiotic
message will be early adopters, who are actively interested in health and willing to accept new ingredients.
Prebiotics appeal will remain niche for some time to come.
Similarly, when you are bringing a product to market which is delivering fibre in an format that may be
unfamiliar to consumers such as a fibre-fortified juice drink then you will also have to begin in the lifestyle
market and build up awareness and acceptance of your products.
The idea of a fibre-fortified drink for digestive health is a new concept to most consumers and the rate of
adoption in the mass-market will be very slow and it could take too long to create consumer acceptance.
14
Bimbos breads brought a new point of difference to
the bread market. But it is also worth noting that this
brand had the advantage of being a trusted brand with
a dominant position in the market.
Its also worth noting that Mexico is very well-
established for probiotics for digestive health. Yakult
sells three million bottles a day there around a billion
bottles each year and it is Yakults third-biggest
market, worldwide, after Japan and Korea. Moreover
Yakult is just one of many dairy digestive health brands
on the Mexican market. So Bimbo had the advantage
of talking to consumers who are already educated and
informed about digestive health but for whom there was
no non-dairy digestive health product available. Sales of
consumer brands such as Yakult or Activia, or products
such as laxatives, are a useful indicator for whether
theres a potential market for your non-dairy high-fibre
product.
Beyond categories such as bakery and cereals it
becomes harder to make fibre work as an ingredient. A
category where it is being tried so far without success
is in meals, an area which is virgin territory for fibre,
and much more challenging than a category such as
breakfast cereals.
General Mills-owned Progresso aimed to use the
benefits of fibre to stake out new territory in the US
soup business, rolling out a new sub-brand, called High-
Fiber. The four flavours include at least 7g of fibre per
serving, more than a quarter of the RDV.
Progresso came to believe that fibre could be an
appealing benefit based in part on the success of the
General Mills Fiber One brand. Consumers are used
to high-fibre products not tasting good and thats why
Fiber One has been successful. Progresso, in consumers
minds, is the strongest taste brand [in soups], so
we knew that it would be a good fit for high-fibre
positioning too.
But Progresso High-Fiber soups earned a modest
$11 million (8.4 million) in sales in Symphony/IRI-
measured outlets for the 52 weeks ended March 21 2010
paling in comparison with $351 million (269 million)
in sales for Progressos regular product line over that
period.
Theres also the nature of the consumption occasion
to take into account a lunch or dinner is about
pleasure and about filling yourself up. Health is usually
associated with start-of-day products. And while dairy
and juice are well-established in the consumers mind
as credible carriers of specific health benefits, and
breakfast cereals and baked products are credible
sources of fibre, meals do not have that advantageous
starting point.
Anyone who takes a high-fibre route in meals or
soups is committing themselves to a long-term effort to
create consumer acceptance.
One way to initiate business would be a product
specifically targeting seniors the need for fibre
becomes increasingly important as people age and their
digestive system breaks down. Such a market might be
niche to begin with, but with the ageing of populations
in most countries (even in Asia), it would be a growing
niche.
SOLUBLE OR INSOLUBLE DO CONSUMERS CARE?
Fibre comes in two forms, soluble and insoluble. Each acts differently in the intestines and benets the body
in different ways. However, consumers are not aware of the difference between the two types, and their
perception of how bre works in the body owes more to their perception of how insoluble bre works, as
one consumer researcher explains it: People think of bre like a brush it cleans out your intestines daily.
There is, at least for the foreseeable future, little marketing advantage to be gained from communicating to
the consumer whether the bre in your product is soluble or insoluble. That may change in time, but can only
happen after a long period of consumer education a process that will take a decade or longer.
RULES FOR SUCCESS IN DIGESTIVE HEALTH
1. Use technology that works. Specifically, use a fibre or a bug that is sufficiently scientifically well-established and in a sufficient
dose to deliver a digestive health benefit that consumers can actually feel. As stated before, its digestive health products ability to
make consumers feel the benefit quickly that is one of the significant competitive advantages. This benefit is one of the key ways of
creating brand loyalty. In the light of the EU tightening of health claim regulations EU companies will be forced to focus on a specific
benefit. In a lot of markets, yoghurt manufacturers have cheapened the message by including general bacteria, at non-specified levels,
which may or may not have a probiotic effect (since the term probiotic is not defined in regulations).
2. Demonstrate the effect. This is where marketing initiatives such as the Activia 2-week challenge, now widely copied, have been
effective. Products that can be felt to work in a very short time frame that offer immediacy will be more successful.
3. Be an expert brand. Danone Activia has achieved dominance in digestive health in much of Europe because of superior
marketing effort, as has Fiber One in the US. To do this you need a clear and uncompromising expert brand position with a clear
and consistent benefit statement supported by long term marketing expenditure linked to consumer education.
15
As forecast last year, 2010 has been another year of the
energy shot and 2011 promises more of the same.
The astonishingly rapid success of energy shots a
market which has grown in the US from zero to over $1
billion in retail sales in six years reflects the extent to
which there are huge areas of untapped opportunities
in products for energy. There are opportunities to create
new brands, new segments and new categories through
strategies focusing on one or more of the following:
Groups of consumers who arent served by
the energy drink brands currently available.
New ingredients with a higher natural and
healthy score than found in the current energy
drinks.
New carriers something other than caffeinated
beverages with better health credentials, such as
dairy and fruit juices.
What energy drinks (such as Red Bull) and energy
shots (such as the market-leading 5-Hour Energy)
have accomplished is to fix the benefit of energy in
consumers minds as one that is defined by beverages
more than any other product type. The energy message
has already been transferred to a small extent to bars
but it is proving a difficult-to-impossible stretch to take
the message to many other categories.
The energy drinks market is one of the biggest success
stories of the functional food revolution that began in
Japan in the 1950s and its worth noting that even
today in Japan, energy is still dominated by beverages.
A lack of energy is consistently named by consumers
among their top four interests. Hence it isnt surprising
that the global market for energy drinks and shots
already exceeds $12 billion (9 billion) in sales.
The opportunities to increase that number are
immense since in the West, although the number of
consumers drinking energy drinks has grown, the core
consumer has remained the same: overwhelmingly
males aged 15- to 24-years-old. This is partly a
result of the positioning of energy drinks, with
names such as Monster, Power Horse, Freak or Red
Bull, whose packaging and marketing messages are
uncompromisingly designed for the high-testosterone
young male.
The market potential lies in developing
products for all the unserved consumer
segments busy mothers, overworked executives
people of all ages who can nd no product aimed at
them that will give them a quick feeling of energy (and
10 Key Trends 2011 Energy
SUMMARY
Feel the benefit advantage: One of the biggest advantages a product can have is to deliver a benefit that consumers can quickly
see or feel. Energy drinks deliver a benefit that is immediately effective and detectable and this benefit explains much of their global
success.
Category defined by beverages: The energy drinks market is one of the biggest success stories of the functional food
revolution that began in Japan in the 1950s even today in Japan, the biggest functional brand is still an energy drink.
Top-4 consumer need: Lack of energy is a key consumer interest for stressed executives trying to stay on top of their
responsibilities, for harassed and time-pressed mothers, for older people who want to stay active, or for anyone struggling to get
through a sleepy afternoon in the office.
Opportunities to create new markets, find new opportunities with fruit, dairy and naturalness: Because of the
focus in the West at least of the brands in the established energy drink category on males aged 18-24, there remains a wealth of
untapped opportunities.
Super-premium, super-convenient concentrated dose: Shots are creating a new category in the US and the UK, with
the US market alone soaring to perhaps $1 billion (660 million) in retail sales between 2004 and 2009. The shot format has still a
huge potential to be fulfilled, primarily from creating brands and concepts with better appeal to older consumers and particularly
women.
New ingredients and carriers: There are a wealth of opportunities to develop new product formats, use new ingredients with a
higher natural and healthy score than found in the current energy drinks and use new carriers something other than caffeinated
beverages with better health credentials, such as dairy and fruit juices.
Energy a wealth of new opportunities?
Key Trend 2:
16
they are not going to drink any of the brands currently
available). The areas of untapped opportunity are
huge.
Meeting the unserved needs of mature consumers
was the driver behind the creation of 5-Hour Energy,
the pioneer in energy shots providing a convenient
2oz (59ml) dose of liquid with zero calories, B vitamins,
amino-acids and caffeine to perk people up when they
need it. The originator of the category pioneering
start-up company Living Essentials still has an 85%
share of the US energy market, which continues to grow
by strong double digits overall, nearly two years after it
met new competition from some of the biggest beverage
makers on the planet.
Retail sales of 5-Hour Energy topped $1 billion (750
million) for 2010, yielding corporate revenues of about
$500 million (373 million), Carl Sperber, a co-founder
of the Novi, Mich.-based company, and its creative
director, told New Nutrition Business.
The brands 85% market share (see Chart 8), has
actually grown in the two years since competing
mainstream shots came into the market.
How has this startup managed to maintain and even
build such dominance, even as it also has continued to
drive an expansion of the category overall?
Theyre fierce competitors, said one industry-
leading consultant who declined to be identified.
Theyre smart enough to know there are lots of others
out there trying to invade their space, but theyre very
good about holding position. And I dont see anything
changing anytime soon. Theyre already the Kleenex
of this category, and I think they will continue to be.
The company is a group of chemists and engineers
who thought they could improve energy drinks by
5-Hour Energy has driven the creation of the new energy shots
category from zero to as much as $1 billion in five years and
dominates it with an 85% market share. Its very common in the
business of food and health that the most successful brands are
the ones which create new categories or segments and the
pioneer usually remains the dominant brand.
Chart 7: Energy drinks are premium-priced but daily dose energy shots
are super-premium
US energy drink prices compared with one-another and with a standard mass-market non-
energy product such as Coca-Cola Classic
Source: Wal-Mart, Albertsons, Walgreens
Price per 32 fl.oz.
(approximately
1 litre)
0
CocaCola
Classic
1 litre $2.19
$2.19
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Monster
Energy Drink
16 fl.oz. $2.29
$4.58
Red Bull
Energy Drink
8.3 fl.oz. $2.09
$8.06
Cranergy
12 fl.oz. $3.99
$10.64
Living
Essentials
5-Hour
Energy Shot
12 pack $33
2 fl.oz. bottles
$41.25
45
17
making them smaller and more potent. They formulated
their shot concept with caffeine and B-vitamins, and
artificial sweeteners, and targeted 5-Hour Energy at
working adults rather than the teenagers who comprise
the biggest market for energy.
Once 5-Hour Energy quickly reached the
$200-million sales level a few years ago, it was clear to
energy drink makers and other big beverage brands
that this was a segment they couldnt ignore. So Coca-
Cola, PepsiCo and Hansen all fielded shots, most of
them co-branded with their full-size energy drinks. And
last year, Red Bull, the founder of the energy drink
phenomenon, finally got into the market.
The results for these me-too brands have been
disastrous or at best weak when contrasted with 5-
Hour Energys breathtaking growth, as Chart 8 shows.
This was a phenomenal 50% in 2010, following 64%
growth in 2009. The me-toos in the market have been
unable to come anywhere close to the pioneer:
Monster Hitman, a brand introduced by energy
drink giant Hansen in 2008, saw its sales actually
fall 25% for the 52 weeks ended October 31, to
about $16 million (12 million).
NOS, a Coca-Cola-owned brand, experienced
a 56% drop in sales, to less than $6 million (4.5
million).
The Amp energy shot, from PepsiCo,
disappeared several months ago.
Red Bulls entry into the shot format in 2009
made us nervous, Sperber admitted. Red Bulls
shot quickly rose to $33 million (24.6 million) in
sales and the No. 2 spot in the market but it is still
less than a 20
th
of the size of 5-Hour Energy.
Four tactics have been key to the continuing growth
and dominance of 5-Hour Energy:
1. Focus: The company is not being tempted by
other categories and formats. In fact, its a huge source
of strength for the brand that it is seen only as an
alternative to energy drinks and not a participant in that
segment, said the industry consultant. 5-Hour Energy
poses an alternative to those drinks, so it has a special
place in consumers mindset, he said.
2. Positioning: The brand wisely positioned itself
toward older consumers rather than the teenagers and
20-somethings who favour energy drinks. Theyve
cleverly pushed their category to the mainstream and
away from where [energy drinks] got started, the
consultant explained. If the energy-drink category was
meant to be threatening and for pimply late adolescents,
and people at bars mixing it with alcohol, 5-Hour
Energy has gone away from that whole element of
danger with the shot category and tried to make it safe
for everyone, and without any danger. As Sperber
put it, We make it clear that this is something to help
working adults get through their daily life with zero
sugar and four calories apiece.
Chart 8: Energy shots the creation of a new category
Total US sales in supermarkets, drugstores, gas stations and convenience stores (excluding
Wal-Mart)
Source: Infoscan Reviews, SymphonyIRI Group
$US
(millions)
0
2008 2009 Latest 52 Weeks
Ending Oct 31, 2010
$327.133
$530.307 $763.842
$97.863
$23
$32.786
$124.128
$95.278
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
$424.996
$677.435
$891.906
5-Hour Energy
Red Bull
All other brands
(total 18)
18
3. Serious marketing. The desire to occupy a
credible place in target consumers perceptions drives 5-
Hour Energys marketing, which is strong on measured
tones and light on histrionics. Were of the belief that
5-Hour Energy still requires some explanation, Sperber
said. You cant go for jokes at this point. You cant
really even go for something aspirational. You have to
be pretty plain about the product. And our hands are
tied just a bit in how we market it because its a dietary
supplement. We do the best we can. Were out to inform,
not entertain.
4. Marketing investment. 5-Hour Energy is willing
to invest money to support the brand, blanketing US
airwaves with its TV commercials: This huge amount
of money is reflected in their market share, said the
industry consultant. They keep adding fuel to the fire.
SUPER-PREMIUM PRICING
5-Hour Energy has also held true to super-premium
pricing strategy (see Key Trend 7), with a 2oz. (59 ml)
bottle retailing for around $33 (22) per 12-pack
equivalent to an impressive $41 (32) per litre (see Chart
7). Impressively this massive growth of a super-premium
category has been achieved against the backdrop of an
American economy in recession, reflecting the value that
consumers place on staying energetic and alert.
BEYOND THE CAFFEINATED
BEVERAGE
There is a wealth of ingredients available that offer
an energy benefit well-known ones include guarana,
ginseng, caffeine, taurine and B-vitamins. But thus far
caffeine remains unchallenged as the ingredient that can
best help people feel the benefit (Key Trend 3). The
opportunity to create new markets is there for
ingredient suppliers that can offer consumer goods
companies as many as possible of the following:
An ingredient that can be formulated in an effective
dose into dairy or juice-based products without
adversely affecting taste too much.
An ingredient that offers a natural source of
energy benefit.
Ingredients that can be added in effective doses
into small, low-calorie, daily-dose packages (such as
100ml/3.4oz. servings).
If advances in ingredient technologies enable
companies to look beyond caffeinated drinks, the two
areas which will have most appeal to consumers and the
best chance of success (and where efforts so far have not
met with success owing to a lack of effective products
coupled with poor marketing strategies) are:
Fruit. With a healthy and natural image, fruit should
be an ideal ingredient for energy products. As yet,
though, no company has worked out a way to deliver
energy from fruit. Ocean Spray, has tried with Cranergy,
but with limited success.
Dairy. Like fruit, dairy has yet to work out how to
take a slice of the energy market. One example of the
effort so far made was Emminent, a brand marketed
in Switzerland and Portugal by Swiss dairy group
Emmi, one of the most innovative and successful dairy
companies in Europe. It was withdrawn after a year.
RULES FOR SUCCESS IN ENERGY
There is much to learn from the way that Red Bull and 5-Hour Energy have gone about creating and dominating their respective
segments of the energy drink market, and these lessons are relevant to anyone who is looking to create an energy brand:
1. Create a new category or segment, dont be a me-too.
2. Offer a benefit that the consumer can feel.
3. Focus on one benefit.
4. Focus on one brand.
5. Focus on lifestyle marketing, supported by heavy marketing investment.
6. Innovate in packaging: this signals to consumers that this is something very different.
7. Make your product premium-priced.
8. Make it a beverage.
19
One of the biggest marketing advantages a product can
have, and the surest way to create loyalty for a brand, is
to deliver a benefit that the consumer can quickly see or
feel.
As we first predicted back in 2008, offering a benefit
the consumer can feel has become even more important
and effective in an economic environment in which
people are becoming more careful than ever about how
they spend their hard-earned cash. When people can
feel the benefit being offered to them, they see that they
are getting value-for-money. When they quickly feel the
benefit they immediately understand why they should
buy the product again and again and again.
A feel the benefit effect is the underpinning of the
success of energy drinks, which deliver a benefit a
shot of stimulation that is immediately effective and
detectable. If the 24-year-olds who want to party all
night long can feel that benefit they become as they
have done for Red Bull and other energy brands loyal
consumers.
Marketers of products with a digestive health
platform have the same advantage. With digestive health
you quickly know if a product works or not and if it
gives you the benefit of better digestive health and,
therefore, an improvement in your quality of life.
The pioneers of the feel-the benefit strategy are:
Fonterra in dairy for bone health
Danone Activia in probiotic dairy for digestive
health
Red Bull for energy
Kellogg Special K for weight management
All of these brands continued to increase their sales
during the recession, despite selling at premium or even
super-premium prices.
In terms of formulating your own strategy, its
worth looking carefully at Chart 1. All the consumers
most important health concerns identified by Health
Focus International relate to conditions where people
are feeling an actual problem sleeplessness, stress,
overweight, intestinal disorder, etc.. These concerns
are top-of-mind for consumers because they actually
experience them.
The converse is that products targeting these health
concerns must deliver a benefit that people can feel or
measure in order to be credible.
Its no accident that the two biggest functional food
markets in the world are energy and digestive health.
Nor is it an accident that Kellogg has made Special
K the worlds biggest weight management brand by
focusing on the tangible effect of drop a jeans size.
When technology can make it possible to provide
products that have a tangible feel the benefit effect on
sleep and stress (see Micro-Trend 7) then this market will
grow. Until then, it will remain niche.
1. FEEL THE BENEFIT
Energy. As already explained above, the very tangible
stimulating effect of a dose of caffeine is what has made
the energy drink category, pioneered in the West by
Red Bull, a continuing high-value, high-growth success
story. The newest segment of the energy drink market,
energy shots (see Key Trend 2), has also rapidly become
10 Key Trends 2011 Feel the benet
SUMMARY
What consumers want most. Offering a benefit the consumer can feel has become even more important and effective in
a tough economic environment. When people can feel the benefit being offered to them, they see that they are getting value-for-
money.
Key to building successful brands. A feel the benefit effect is the underpinning of the success of energy drinks and products
for digestive health. These are among the top consumer health concerns and all consumers top concerns relate to problems
where delivering a tangible effect is critical for product credibility.
Measure it and show it if they cant feel it. If consumers cant immediately feel the benefit of your product, then show them
the benefit as Kellogg has done with Special Ks Drop a Jeans Size challenge and Anlene has done with its Bone Health Check.
Supporting science is increasingly important. Sales of Anlene have jumped 15% in the Asian markets where the message
Protect your bone strength within 4 weeks based on the results of a clinical study has been introduced.
Lack of a quick and easy-to-feel effect can inhibit success. This has been a particular problem for products fortified with
omega-3s, which provide no readily measurable effect, and brands that promise healthier skin have the same challenge.
Feel the benefit the most powerful marketing message
Key Trend 3:
20
one of the biggest success stories in the global food and
beverage industry as a result of offering a concentrated
dose of stimulation, with the pioneering brand in US
market, 5-Hour Energy, soaring from zero to a $1 billion
(770 million) in retail sales in the space of six years,
even though it sells at a super-premium price.
Digestive health money-back-if-not-
satisfied challenges. Danone pioneered the
idea of the consumer challenge back in 2002 by
offering consumers a full refund if they didnt feel
the difference after consuming its Activia probiotic
products every day for 14 days. Danone now uses this
technique in every single market in which it operates
(including the US). The fact that the product does
enable consumers to feel the difference with
committed consumers such as men in their 50s eating
two pots a day to keep their digestive systems moving
freely is the essential underpinning of the promise and
has helped make Activia the worlds biggest digestive
health probiotic brand. Now widely copied, it is a highly
effective communication and shows consumers even
those who dont take up the challenge that you have
confidence in your product.
Joint health. If you have joint pain you know soon
enough whether a product is helping to relieve that
pain, and the reason that glucosamine supplements for
joint health have become a $900 million (692 million)
business in the US is because people are powerfully
motivated to end pain. The Elations juice brand, a juice
beverage based on glucosamine, makes just that promise
and provides an effective dose of the active ingredient
in a convenient beverage format. This feel the benefit
promise has propelled the brand from just $15 million
(11.5 million) in sales in 2008 to an expected $85-$100
million (65-77 million) in 2010 (Key Trend 10).
2. MEASURE THE BENEFIT
AND SHOW IT TO THEM
Whether or not your brand delivers an easy-to-feel
benefit, one of the most important lessons of the last
decade is that you should try to demonstrate the benefit
to make it easier for the consumer to understand. So if
they cant immediately feel the benefit, then show them
the benefit.
The two companies who are arguably best in the
world at this strategy are Kellogg and dairy giant
Fonterra and both these examples illustrate how
compelling this message is for consumer in every part of
the globe:
Weight management, Kelloggs Special K:
the Special K Drop a Jeans Size and Drop a Bikini
21
Size promotions offer women a measurable benefit
if they follow the Special K eating programme for
14 days, which involves substituting two meals a day
with Special K. It has proven to be one of the most
successful initiatives ever undertaken by a brand, as
popular in France as in the US, leading to the successful
re-positioning of the Special K brand, its expansion to
over $1.5 billion (1.1 billion) in sales worldwide, with
100% growth in the US alone.
Bone health, Fonterra Anlene: in Asia, in
support of the Anlene brand a high-calcium milk
marketed throughout Asia which has been clinically
proven to prevent bone loss (Key Trend 10) consumers
are provided with free bone scans supported by
nutritional counseling called the Anlene Bone Health
Check, to help them understand their bone health and
how they can improve it. Anlene has provided over 4
million free bone scans in Asia since 2006 (and many
millions more since this initiative began in the early
1990s). Fonterra says that this consumer engagement in
understanding the benefit has proven to be five
times more effective than advertising alone.
The brand has gone further in demonstrating the
benefit by developing the Anlene Movement a series
of exercise events which enable people to participate
and feel the benefit of activity and movement. The
reward for this initiative has been that Anlene has
become the number one bone health brand in Asia with
an unassailable 75% market share.
3. SUPPORT THE EFFECT
WITH SCIENCE
Fonterras Anlene is also a good example of how
important it is to invest in science to provide the effect
the brand is underpinned by several clinical studies
which support the claimed effect of improving bone
health and also have lead to approved health claims in
several countries.
The company has not sat on its laurels however, but it
has enhanced its brand over the years and in 2010 was
able to demonstrate in a new clinical study, published in
the journal Bone, that Anlenes effect on bone strength
could be measured as significant within four weeks of
consuming Anlene. This new science has become the
basis for a stronger consumer message:
Protect your bone strength within 4 weeks.
Sales of Anlene have jumped 15% in the
Asian markets where this message has been
introduced since March 2010 the reward for
investing in science and for focusing with laser-like
precision on making the benefit tangible to consumers.
4. THE RISK OF AN
INTANGIBLE BENEFIT
Conversely, the lack of a quick and easy-to-feel effect
can be an inhibitor to a brands success. This has been
a particular problem for products fortified with omega-
3s whose heart health benefit cant be felt or even
easily measured unlike specific cholesterol-lowering
products, where you can measure your cholesterol going
down. This has contributed to the modest performance
of omega-3 fortified brands the few that have not been
withdrawn and kept omega-3 as a Micro-Trend (see
Micro-Trend 8).
Brands that promise healthier skin have the same
challenge. The buyers of Danone Essensis yoghurt
which made a nourish your skin from the inside claim
could not see or feel themselves becoming more
beautiful, even though the benefit was, Danone said,
clinically demonstrated. In fact Essensis communicated
that it could take up to six weeks for visible results to
show. No-one is willing to wait that long for results, so
buying Essensis became a matter of faith and belief
rather than tangible, quick results. Essensis was later
withdrawn and no beauty food or drink brand is doing
well in the West.
Having a benefit that consumers can feel is already
the underpinning of many successful brands and the
categories that deliver a tangible benefit quickly, such
as digestive health and energy drinks, are already
the largest segments of the functional foods market,
worldwide.
We are not suggesting that a quickly-felt benefit
should be your only strategy there are many, many
benefits that are not immediate but which motivate
consumers strongly and have growth potential, such as
the perceived benefits of antioxidants, but a tangible
benefit is a good insurance policy.
Products that offer tangible benefits are
already able to earn premium prices and this
will continue (see Key Trend 3). In fact, every example
we give above is a product that earns a premium or
super-premium price.
RULES FOR SUCCESS FOR FEEL THE BENEFIT
1. If your product has a fairly immediate effect (within two weeks, which is why so many products, such as Danone Activia, offer
14-day feel the benefit challenges) and an easily-detected benefit to consumers, tell them about it.
2. If the benefit of your product cant be quickly or easily felt, you must find a way to show consumers the benefit, as Anlene does
with bone scans or as Kellogg does with its Drop a Jeans Size promotions for Special K.
22
The trend towards consumers wanting health benefits
that are as natural as possible and ideally intrinsic
to the product or ingredient that is delivering them
has benefited fruit more than any other commodity.
Fruit are all natural, offer intrinsic health benefits and
connect perfectly with the worldwide consumer desire
for products that give natural health.
Fruit has several advantages:
Fruit is seen by health-conscious consumers as one
of the few things they can eat as an indulgence
without feeling any guilt.
More than any other food type, fruit has a halo of
health, one thats being made brighter all the time
as a steady stream of news about fruits benefits,
such as fibre and antioxidants, makes its way into
a media eager for simple and positive stories about
healthy eating.
As a result fruit is the perfect health food and
the perfect health ingredient. The addition of fruit
ingredients to a packaged food such as adding
cranberries or blueberries to breakfast cereal helps add
a halo of health to a brands position and their presence
is used to justify claims such as high in antioxidants.
Unsurprisingly, the use of fruit as an ingredient is
escalating, sales of products positioned as superfruit
are continuing to increase and sales of fruit-based snacks
are increasing. For example, Ocean Sprays Craisins
sales grew 10% in 2010, following 13% growth in 2009
and 17% in 2008 despite recession and despite a retail
price equivalent to a hefty $17.60 (13.50) per kilo, far
above the pricing of potato chips and other mass-market
snacks.
However, scientific research into the benefits of fruit
is at an early stage. The science of fruit is today where
the science of dairy nutrition was 20 years ago.
Researchers are only just beginning to uncover a
wealth of benefits in relation to digestive health and
immunity, satiety, sports recovery, glucose uptake and
insulin response, energy and mood. Ten years from now,
fruit like dairy may be a vehicle for delivering a wide
array of health benefits to consumers.
Companies that have invested heavily in the science
of fruit have proven to be very successful. For example:
It was investment in the science of the cranberry
that enabled Ocean Spray to understand its benefits
and turn it into the original superfruit.
10 Key Trends 2011 Fruit
SUMMARY
A key driver: Alongside dairy, fruit will be a key driver of the food and health trend. Fruit is increasingly becoming one of the
most important vehicles for delivering a wide array of health benefits to consumers. Sales of niche fruits and fruits with some
novelty value will continue to grow strongly. Fruits with a health benefit that can be substantiated by science those with the most
scientific studies behind them will be the most successful.
Packaging adds convenience: Main growth will be in fruit in more convenient forms, such as packaged snacks, and beverages.
Packaging innovation is key to differentiation and market success.
Growth in drinks: The fruit drink market will not only grow but more sub-segments will appear, targeting more specific health
conditions than the current high in antioxidants message that is used as the standard communication for superfruits. There is an
unfulfilled opportunity to create a new category of juices with digestive health benefits, based on fibre or probiotics.
Fruit in Europe: In Europe, despite the restrictions on health claims, fruit provides the opportunity to create health brands
without claims by choosing fruit with a positive health image and ideally an association with specific benefits, and delivering them as
a snack or beverage in strongly differentiated packaging.
Fruit the future of food and health
Key Trend 4:
23
It was investment of $25 million (16.7 million)
in the science of the pomegranate that enabled
Paramount Farms to create the Pom Wonderful
brand, which today earns the company super-
premium prices, retailing at around $8 (6.20) per
litre compared to around $2 (1.55) per litre for
a mass-market orange juice brand like Tropicana
and kicked off the fast-growing and profitable
pomegranate juice and ingredients markets.
There is a demonstrable relationship between the
number of scientific studies that have been published
about a fruits health benefits and its superfruit status.
Cranberry, blueberry and pomegranate all have a high
number of studies, and relatively high numbers of
human studies. These are probably the most widely
recognised and successful superfruit.
So huge is the potential of fruit that new players with
no previous experience of fruit products are muscling
in. These are companies who have sufficient scientific
know-how that they will likely invest more than the
traditionally low-tech low-science fruit growing and
processing industries, and they can be counted upon
to remedy the deficiency of science in support of
specific health benefits from fruit. If their strategies are
successful they will transform the business of fruit; for
example:
Danone and fruit giant Chiquita have formed a
partnership to jointly build a new business in fruit
drinks and fruit snacks.
Danone is acquiring fruit drink companies.
Nestl has a research programme that focuses on
fruit and has introduced fruit snacks in selected
markets.
Danone has publicly identified fruit drinks as
potentially very credible carriers for other health
benefits, securing a global license for the ProViva
probiotic fruit juice brand, marketed with a digestive
health benefit which is clinically proven and based on
L. plantarum 299v, one of the worlds most-researched
probiotics (see Key Trend 1). Launched in Sweden in
1994, in 2009 it had retail sales of around 50 million
($66 million). If Swedens per capita consumption of
ProViva was translated into a larger country, such as the
US, it would be a $2.1 billion (1.5 billion) annual-sales
brand as big as Gatorade in other words.
ProVivas success comes from the combination of
excellent fruit flavours and a clinically-proven digestive
health benefit that you can quickly feel (Key Trend 3).
AS A WAY OF DELIVERING THE BENEFITS OF FRUIT, BEVERAGES
HAVE ALL THE ADVANTAGES:
Convenience: beverages are fruit in their most convenient form and the form which most closely
matches the needs of modern lifestyles.
Added value: they deliver more health by blending in otherwise inedible parts of the fruit such as
the skin and seed which may have healthy compounds.
High quality naturalness and health benefits: consumers view high quality beverages as equiva-
lent to fresh fruit in terms of both naturalness and health benefits.
Multiple formulation possibilities: they can be formulated with a combination of juices to get
reinforced benefits or to lower cost (superfruit juices can be blended with apple juice to enhance taste,
sweetness and lower the cost of the finished product).
Excellent taste potential: it is possible to make almost anything taste good as a beverage. Beverages
can be formulated to make palatable fruit which are not palatable in their whole fresh form.
Packaging innovation: its possible to use packaging design as a key part of your marketing mix to
help maximise the differentiation of your fruit.
Premium retail prices: most important of all, beverages are a way of achieving premium retail
prices and high profit margins.
Fruit juice has proven itself to be a credible carrier for
immune and digestive health benefits based on probiotic
strains. These two brands are set for global roll-out.
24
RULES FOR SUCCESS IN FRUIT
1. Focus on delivering the benefits of fruit in the form of beverages or snacks, in as convenient a form as possible.
2. Use packaging innovation to differentiate the product as much as possible in a crowded supermarket.
3. Focus on high-value, low-volume niches targeting loyal consumers. This is the approach taken by all successful superfruit so
far. If you can build a beachhead with such a niche you can later grow from it into the mass market.
4. Market a relevant health benefit the message high in antioxidants is so common that it has already ceased to be a
point of difference. It is, besides, an ingredient content statement not a health benefit and it is the latter which most motivates
consumers.
5. Use technology that works fruit or fruit ingredients based in science which, just like Ocean Sprays promise that its
cranberries fight urinary tract infections, is demonstrated by science and effectively delivered by the product. The promise of
cranberry is a perfect example of the power of feel the benefit (see Key Trend 3).
FRUIT IS MORE CONVENIENT WHEN YOU DRINK IT
Essencial has proven very successful in Portugal
and launched elsewhere in Europe.
Annual sales 10m ($13.4m) in a country of
10m people.
The challenge to fresh is from fruit in more
convenient forms - to the consumer they are
equivalent.
As the illustration shows, the message is simple
in this case, that drinking one of its kiwifruit
drinks is the same as eating one whole kiwifruit
(without the mess or inconvenience).
Fruit and digestive health is a particularly good fit,
since many fruit fig, prune, rhubarb, pear and many
others have a strong association in consumers minds
with digestive health in many countries.
Another probiotic fruit juice which has become a
significant success is the Gefilus juice brand, marketed in
Finland with an immune health benefit (see Key Trend
9). Gefilus based on the clinically proven probiotic
LGG has taken an impressive 32% share of Finlands
chilled juice market since launching in 1997 and
become the countys biggest juice brand.
25
10 Key Trends 2011 Weight management
Its been another lean year for the development of the
weight management opportunity, despite the fact that:
overweight is one of the leading issues identified by
consumers that affect them personally, according to
consumer researchers Heath Focus International,
whose most recent survey found overweight
increasing significantly as a consumer concern
compared to previous years, with 24% identifying it
as a personal issue (see Chart 1)
multiple ingredient suppliers and some branded
food and beverage companies have stepped up their
efforts to create new products that address weight
management.
Unlike digestive health (Key Trend 1) and energy
(Key Trend 2), where some expert brands have
defined the category and taken leadership, the whole
area of weight management is still a wide open
opportunity. Worldwide, just one brand has become a
major success Kelloggs Special K breakfast cereal,
which is today the worlds biggest and most successful
weight management brand (see box). Ironically, its a
brand that isnt based on a new ingredient or a new
technology; its success rests solely on a clever and
different marketing strategy. Special K is just a regular
breakfast cereal but one that has been positioned and
marketed for weight management better than any other
food or beverage brand.
The good news is that weight management remains
an embryonic market which is still new enough for
companies to create opportunities and carve out new
businesses in a way that is no longer possible in more
mature sectors.
UNEXPECTED CHANGES AND
CHALLENGES
The science of weight management is constantly
evolving, which is an advantage to our industry, since
as the science develops it throws up new opportunities
to create effective products. This year three surprise
developments which will challenge thinking and
force reappraisals of nutritionists thinking as well as
corporate strategy relate to high protein/low-GI diets,
WeightWatchers points system overhaul, and konjac
fibre.
Diogenes delivers
Proteins image as a valuable part of a diet (see Micro-
Trend 1) enjoyed its most recent boost in November
2010, following the publicity surrounding the publication
in the New England Journal of Medicine of the results of the
worlds largest diet study.
The large-scale randomised study, called Diogenes,
investigated the optimum diet composition for
preventing and treating obesity. The study was
conducted by eight European research centres and
headed by Thomas Meinert Larsen, PhD, and Professor
Arne Astrup, Head of Department at the Faculty of
Life Sciences (LIFE), University of Copenhagen, and
it was funded by an EU grant of 14.5 million ($11
million).
The researchers found that high-protein, low-glycemic
index (GI) diets were the most effective for weight
management (see Chart 9). Its a signicant study, not
SUMMARY
Weight management is still a wide open opportunity: Worldwide, just one brand has become a major success Kelloggs
Special K breakfast cereal. Weight management remains an embryonic market which is still new enough for companies to create
opportunities and carve out new businesses.
The science of weight management is constantly evolving: As the science develops it throws up new opportunities to cre-
ate effective products, as evidenced this year by research around high protein/ low-GI diets, WeightWatchers points system over-
haul, and a rare regulatory approval for a weight management claim (for konjac fibre).
Satiety promise: Products that give a sense of satiety ought to become the largest area of weight management consumers can
easily feel the benefit of being fuller longer. However, satiety products have not performed well most products so far on the
market, it seems, are just not effective enough.
Service please: Putting a weight-management product on the shelf is not enough you have to actually provide a service. The
success of concepts such as Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig and Special K, with its eating programme shows how much
people value support and service in reaching their weight management goals. This will, of course, require a significant commitment
in terms of investment and technology.
Weight management
Key Trend 5:
26
only because it challenges many strongly-held beliefs
(including the widely held negative view of GI in the US)
but because Professor Astrup was previously not a fan of
high protein and low GI but the results of good science
have made him change his view.
The researchers favour diets with 25% of calories
from high-quality, low-fat protein sources and comment
that current dietary recommendations are not optimal
for preventing weight gain. Their recommendation is
a higher intake of (high quality) protein than current
guidelines recommend; eating this way, they say, means
you can also eat until you are full without counting
calories and without gaining weight.
Because of the quality and scale of the study it is
already having an impact on the world of nutrition. Its
good news for anyone making foods with a high content
of wholegrain (such as dark breads, oats, breakfast
cereals), producers of vegetables and some (but not all)
fruits as well as protein companies.
The GI concept was popularized in Australia,
where low-GI foods, tested as such at the University of
Sydney, can carry a regulator-approved symbol, and a
low-GI eating plan is used by the Australian Diabetic
Association, However, the reality is that the concept
is little understood by consumers at large, and the GI
symbol, despite the backing of extensive TV advertising
and PR, does little or nothing for the sales of products
that carry it. Its a unique-in-the-world experiment, and
it has shown that low GI may be too difcult a concept
for consumers to take on board in the midst of all the
other health messages they are bombarded with.
So we are unlikely to see any enduring renaissance of
low GI as a marketing message. However, eat more
protein is easier for people to understand and that will
benefit protein producers in the long run.
Weight Watchers overhauls points
In use in Europe for over a year and now being rolled
out worldwide, Weight Watchers PointsPlus System
replaces its long-established Points plan. The new system
which the company says has been clinically tested is
designed to reflect the current state of nutrition science.
PointsPlus values are based on the amount of protein,
fibre, carbohydrates and fat in foods significantly, the
formula takes into account that protein and fibre are
important for fullness and warding off hunger. The
programme is designed, the company says, to help
people make food choices that will allow them to eat
more food and help them feel full longer. In the
PointsPlus system a breakfast of egg and ham will have
a better score than a croissant while a 100-calorie apple
is flagged as a better choice than a 100-calorie bag of
chips. The company also has created power food
choices so people can select the healthiest foods within
food categories, such as soups or frozen dinners. Those
power foods will be identified in the programme.
Unexpected boost for science-
based weight management
ingredient
Companies have become accustomed to the European
Food Safety Authority (EFSA) almost routinely
rejecting proposed health claims. In fact EFSA now
has an average 98% rejection rate. But in 2010 EFSA
surprised everyone by giving its first-ever approval
of a weight-management claim for a specific food
ingredient. They chose an ingredient that was not in any
product developers plans glucomannan, better known
Chart 9: Change in body weight during the Diogenes study
As the chart shows, the high proteinlow GI diet produced the best weight-loss results.
Source: Diogenes study
Low-protein high GI
High-protein low GI
27
as konjac fibre. The EFSA review panel concluded that
it agreed that a cause and effect relationship has been
established between the consumption of glucomannan
and the reduction of body weight and it authorised the
proposed health claim:
Glucomannan contributes to the reduction of body weight in the
context of an energy-restricted diet.
Many companies that have been experimenting with
weight management products such as those based on
bre and proteins for satiety, which are now not approved
by EFSA to make a satiety claim suddenly are faced
with a unique opportunity to do something in weight
management with a claim thats EFSA-approved.
Not only does konjac now have a unique claim,
the clinical evidence is that it actually works, enabling
consumers to feel the benet. Konjac bre is also
FOSHU-approved for weight management in Japan, so
taking the European and Japanese approvals together,
theres a strong body of science that should satisfy
regulators everywhere. It is already used in many foods
as a gel or thickener (its described as E425 on many
product labels). Its a soluble bre derived from the root
of the konjac plant enabling marketers to communicate
a natural plant extract message of the kind that has
already worked well for many ingredients.
Konjac is clinically proven certainly to the
satisfaction of EFSAs near-pharmaceutical standards
of clinical proof to induce a sense of satiety leading
to a decrease in subsequent energy intake. In order to
obtain the claimed effect, 3g of glucomannan should be
consumed daily.
SATIETY PROMISES A LOT
Because consumers are most motivated by benefits
they can quickly see or feel, products that give a sense
of satiety ought to become the largest area of weight
management as NNB has forecast in our trend surveys
in previous years. If you have a snack in the morning
and then find that you eat less for lunch, thats effective.
It also works as a consumer communication: its not a
magic bullet promising to help them shed kilos overnight,
but a positive promise to help them in the long run with
a lifestyle change.
At the level of health claims satiety should also be a
more straightforward concept. A claim such as Helps you
eat less is more straightforward to demonstrate than one
that a product reduces body fat.
Theres also a natural link between food and satiety
wanting to feel full is, after all, why people eat a lot of
the time and there are many categories in which the
link could be developed. Theres potentially therefore
scope for soup and other formats which consumers
already associate with filling you up. Campbells
Soups Satisfied, naturally message for its soups plays
on this link between eating and satiety, using an all-
natural message.
Consumers increasingly prefer to tackle their shape
and weight management as one component of a broader
healthy lifestyle and a balanced diet as normal food
for normal people who just want to snack less. It is in
this context that soup or other meals can offer a satiety
benefit.
These formats may also benefit from the clear decline
in popularity of dieting as a regime and the decline of
overtly diet products. Traditional dieting brands such as
Theres also a natural link between food and satiety wanting
to feel full is, after all, why people eat a lot of the time.
Campbells Soups Satisfied, naturally message for its soups
plays on this link between eating and satiety.
An American brand called NeuroTrim is one of the few
brands in Europe already offering a weight management
benefit based on the presence of konjac.
28
Unilevers Slim-Fast have seen their sales slide in recent
years by 50% in the case of Slim-Fast.
However, there is a danger that this type of
naturally-satisfying message could become an
everyday message in many categories, and therefore
cease to be a point of difference.
And while its tempting for marketers to bring this
type of satiety communication to existing categories and
brands, the reality is that such soft claims very often
provide only a short-term lift to sales and no increase in
prices.
And, while satisfying and feel fuller for longer
have some appeal as soft claims they wont
help anyone create a brand with a distinct weight
management position, such as Special K has, grow
significant volumes (as Special K has) and earn premium
prices (as Special K does in many markets, where its
premium over regular cereals can be as high as 100%).
...but struggles to satisfy
Although, for all the reasons above, industry has long
believed that satiety is the best direction to take, in fact
satiety products have not performed well. To take just
two significant examples:
Spain: In one of Europes most-active weight
management markets, Danone Vitalinea Satisfaccin
0% fat yoghurt achieved less than 7 million ($9.6
million) in retail sales despite a clear helps to control the
appetite for longer message and a significant marketing
spend. Satisfaccion provides a dose of 9.2g of protein
and 2g of fibre per 100g and is claimed to reduce the
desire to eat for two hours following consumption.
US: Kelloggs Special K dairy satiety drink providing
protein and fiber to satisfy hunger for longer achieved only
$33 million (25 million) in its first year on the market
approximately the same sales level as the companys
KELLOGG SPECIAL K THE GLOBAL LEADER IN WEIGHT MANAGEMENT
The successful re-positioning of Special K from being an out-of-date diet brand it was rst launched in
1955 in the US dates from 2001, when Kellogg and its advertising agency, Leo Burnett, devised the Special
K drop a jeans size and drop a bikini size challenges. They designed a plan in which participants had to
follow basically only one rule: for two weeks, they were required to substitute two meals a day with Kelloggs
cereal or meal bars; they could largely eat what they wanted the rest of the day, in two snacks and a normal
lunch or dinner. Special K has no added functional ingredients; it is an example not of technical innovation
but marketing innovation using skilfull communications to help consumers alter their lifestyle and produce a
measurable result.
Since 2001 sales of Special K have more than doubled in the US and in many markets it has performed even
better. In the UK, for example, Special K has become the countrys second-biggest cereal brand, trebling sales
between 2005 and 2009 to almost 120 million ($179 million). Worldwide and Special K is marketed across
Europe and throughout the Middle East and South America
Special K is a $1.5 billion (1 billion) annual sales brand.
The drop a jeans size challenges are a perfect example of
feel the benet marketing (see Key Trend 3). The key lesson
from Special K is that the best way for a brand to be credible
as a weight management brand is to deliver a tangible,
measurable effect indeed this is the only way to be successful.
One of the key underpinnings of the success of Special K is a supporting programme of motivational groups, nutrition
counseling and much more making it more likely that the Special K consumer will feel the difference in terms dropping
a jeans size or dropping a bikini size.
29
RULES FOR SUCCESS IN WEIGHT MANAGEMENT
1. The ingredients of success for a weight management brand are clear:
- a benefit that the consumer can quickly see or feel, and in this respect satiety seems to have the edge
- an approach that can fit in with the do-it-yourself approach to weight management
- a product that supports the consumers healthy diet and lifestyle, rather than forcing them to change their habits
- delivered in an eye-catching and (if possible) unusual package format
- a premium price
- a heavy investment in brand support, in particular challenges to consumers to feel the benefit
2. For ingredient suppliers it will be key to success in a very competitive ingredient supply market to work in partnerships with
branded goods owners to help them reduce their (very high) risk of failure and maximize their return on investment.
3. Given how risk-averse the marketing departments of many consumer goods companies are, partnership in this market might mean
that an ingredient supplier not only supplies the technology, but perhaps invests in a joint venture company to take the technology
to market in partnership with a branded foods company.
4. A significant, long-term investment in consumer communications is essential for any weight management brand to establish an
expert position and earn the kinds of significant price premiums shown above.
5. Use ingredient technology that works and is clinically proven.
earlier brand stretch for Special K, an unsuccessful
high-fibre and high-protein water, also marketed with a
satiety message.
Most dairy satiety brands that have been launched
in Europe and the US have been withdrawn or linger
in niches while the feel fuller for longer range of
high fibre ready meals launched by UK retailer Marks
& Spencer (which has always had a strong private label
presence among the weight-conscious) is said to have
performed only modestly.
Why has the satiety effect failed so far? Given the
importance of consumers feeling the benefit to a
weight management products credibility (see Key Trend
3) feel the benefit has been the keystone of the
success of Special K the problem with most products
on the market delivering a dose of fibre and protein is,
it seems, that they are just not effective enough. They
promise that people will feel fuller, but that feeling isnt
strong enough to deliver sufficient credibility to attract
long-term repeat purchase. An improvement in the
ingredient technology is needed.
A SERVICE, NOT JUST A
PRODUCT
The other challenge for companies targeting weight
management is that to succeed in this category its not
just a question of putting a product on the shelf, you
have to actually provide a service.
Weight management is a potential mass market
concern and the mass-market consumer group most
engaged with weight management products are those
whom Health Focus International calls the strugglers,
a name which is fairly self-explanatory. This group, who
comprise around 12% of the population, struggle with
maintaining their weight and with healthy eating. Its
hardly surprising that one of the biggest challenges with
weight management is how quickly people can put the
kilos back on after they have shed them.
The global success of concepts such as Weight
Watchers and Jenny Craig illustrates how much people
value support and service in reaching their weight
management goals. Connecting to this reality is one of
the key underpinnings of the success of Special K. The
brand is not only a product, but an eating programme
supported by motivational groups, nutrition counseling
and much more making it more likely that the Special
K consumer will feel the difference in terms of
dropping a jeans size or dropping a bikini size, as the
brand promises they will.
In short, if you want to succeed in weight
management you are facing a significant
commitment in terms of investment and
technology. The two critical success factors are that
your consumers:
Feel the benefit
Enjoy the product as part of a supportive
weight management service that assists them
in meeting their goals.
We do not know, but we suspect, that as well
as satiety, reduction of body fat is a piece of self-
measurement that consumers can do and which enables
them to feel the benefit, and this might go some way
to explaining the continuing success of the Naturlinea
dairy brand, still selling 50 million ($66 million) a year
in Spain with little marketing support some six years
after it was launched in an intensely competitive market.
Naturlinea is based on the active ingredient Tonalin
CLA from Cognis and carries the claim helps
reduce body fat.
30
10 Key Trends 2011 Naturally healthy
SUMMARY
Natural has strong appeal to consumers: Marketing the intrinsic health benefit of a food or food ingredient continues to
be the most popular health marketing strategy in the industry since this message is one of the most appealing to consumers, who
will accept it without hesitation.
Convenience is key: The most successful products are those that offer their natural and intrinsic health benefits in a highly con-
venient format usually a beverage or snack.
Natural snacks: Demand for snack products is increasing and can only grow more because of the gradual disappearance of tra-
ditional meal occasions. A focus on building markets for new snack concepts rather than simply following on with predictable prod-
ucts has already led to the creation of some innovative snacking concepts.

Naturally healthy and ultra-convenient
Key Trend 6:
The message that a food or food ingredient has a
natural and intrinsic health benefit is one of the most
persuasive in food marketing. For many consumers a
health benefit that is intrinsic to the product such as
oats and heart health, blueberries and antioxidants is
the only one they will accept without hesitation.
Natural health benefits are also an idea thats easy for
the media to understand and easier still for time-pressed
journalists to explain. The media is always hungry
for stories about foods with an intrinsic health benefit
oats, almonds, cranberries and blueberries have all
benefited from media attention and the medias labeling
of them as superfoods.
But most often, consumers dont want their
superfoods in their whole, fresh and unprocessed state
that isnt convenient enough. Supermarket sales data
makes it clear that time-pressed consumers want their
all-natural health benefit packaged, presented and if
necessary processed into a format that makes their life
easier.
To illustrate this, compare the fortunes of two high
antioxidant superfoods broccoli and a broccoli snack
and consider too how a convenient shot format has
made beetroot appealing.
BroccoSprouts vs Booster Broccoli: As Table
3 shows, the former Booster Broccoli was simply
sold as a head of broccoli. The latter Broccosprouts
are sold in a convenient package, ready-to-eat. The
company behind Broccosprouts went out of its way to
use packaging to differentiate its product (see Key Trend
7 for detail), while Booster Broccoli kept its product
looking like any other whole, fresh, natural broccoli in
the supermarket.
The result? Booster Broccoli failed to appeal to
consumers, while BroccoSprouts have become a super-
premium success story.
Beet It: James White Drinks organic beetroot juice
brand Beet It is a text-book example of how to market
intrinsic health benefits. The benefits of Beet It are
based on beetroots naturally high nitrate content on
the face of it, an unlikely starting point for a health
brand, since from the 1950s nitrates were treated as a
potential risk factor for colon cancer.
In fact epidemiological studies have never found
any association between nitrate intake and disease in
humans

and researchers began to suspect that dietary
nitrate might play a role in supporting human health.
Researchers in Japan, the US and elsewhere found that
nitrates lowered diastolic blood pressure, with no effects
on systolic blood pressure.
However, whole beetroot do not score very highly on
convenience beetroot juice is much more convenient.
So Beet It set out to capitalize on the new
scientifically-established health benefits of beetroot juice,
which has been used extensively in clinical studies and
has an even higher concentration of the actives than
fresh beetroot.
Initially retailing in 250ml bottles and sold through
health food stores, beetroot juices health halo was
further burnished by published studies which found that
drinking beetroot juice reduces the energy expended by
muscle and can boost stamina, allowing an individual to
exercise for up to 16% longer.
In the world of elite athletes there is a never-ending
quest for products that will boost performance and
word got around. Beet It juice was soon being bought
by sports teams and professional athletes. However,
beetroot juice has a polarising taste, so to get past this
taste barrier the company decided to concentrate its
product (see Key Trend 7), creating a 70ml shot version
which contains the same quantity of nitrates as found in
250ml of beetroot juice and has a better taste as well
as being an easier dose to drink.
31
BroccoSprouts and Beet It illustrate the keys to
successfully marketing products with natural health
benefits. These are:
Its a health benefit from a natural food or
ingredient.
The benefit is intrinsic to the ingredient.
The benefit is easy to understand and relevant to
the lifestyle of the target consumer.
The product format is as convenient as possible.
People like to hear that something thats natural and
tastes good is also good for them you can guarantee
health-conscious consumers will know all about
the heart health benefits of red wine and the high
antioxidant levels of dark chocolate.
Bear in mind that the wellness aura that surrounds
antioxidants has come from messages about the all
natural high antioxidant content of foods such as
chocolate and blueberries; it is this natural and intrinsic
benefit image that helps give antioxidants credibility.
BroccoSprouts and Beet It also illustrate a point
made by Professor Brian Wansink one of the worlds
most respected food psychologists and professor of
applied economics of marketing and nutritional science
at Cornell University who says that any vegetable
BroccoSprouts Booster Broccoli
Product BroccoSprouts very young broccoli plants, just a few days old. Unusual appearance,
not easily comparable to anything else in the produce area except alfalfa sprouts,
which have a premium and health image.
Booster Broccoli heads
of mature broccoli.
Comparable directly to
commodity broccoli.
Active
ingredient
Sulforaphane at 73mg per 28g serving. Sulforaphane at 84mcg
per serve of 70g (at
least 30% more than
conventional broccoli).
Science
base
Very strong science dates back to work done at Johns Hopkins University School of
Medicine in Baltimore, USA, in early 1990s.
Very strong product
is one outcome of
a $2.8 million/2.3
million research project
involving Australia and
New Zealands leading
research organizations.
Benefit Labelled: BroccoSprouts. Broccoli sprouts. A natural source of SGS the long lasting
antioxidant from broccoli. 73mg of SGS per serving. BroccoSprouts are the only
broccoli sprout patented and licensed by Johns Hopkins University.
On the reverse of the label: BroccoSprouts. 100% natural. While studying broccoli
and broccoli sprouts at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, scientists
identified a natural compound, sulforafane GS (SGS) which supports long-lasting
antioxidant and essential cellular function. Only BroccoSprouts are grown from special
seeds which are tested and certified by Brassica Protection Products, in order to
provide a guaranteed level of SGS. A fat-free food, broccoli sprouts are a good source
of Vitamin C. As part of a diet low in fat and rich in vegetables and fruit, broccoli
sprouts may reduce the risk of cancer, a disease of many factors.
SGS is a long-lasting antioxidant which helps maintain the bodys immune function.
Labelled: Naturally higher
in essential antioxidants.
Packaging Sold in convenient 113g packs (in Japan in 50g snack packs) in containers which
help differentiate the product and provide adequate space for label messages.
Booster Broccoli sold in
heads and unattractively
shrink-wrapped as
conventional broccoli,
failing to establish any
visual point of difference.
Convenience
factors
Product is hyper-convenient instantly ready-to-eat, it can be consumed raw from the
pack as a snack as well as being used in cooking without loss of the health benefit.
Zero convenience
factors, zero snacking
potential product still
needs to be washed
and prepared by the
consumer.
Pricing Super-premium typically costing $3-$4 (2.52 - 3.36) a pack, three times as
expensive as a pack of alfalfa sprouts.
Initially aimed for 30%
premium to regular
broccoli, which widened
to 150% as price of
directly comparable
undifferentiated
commodity fell.
Consumer
targeting
Premium health-conscious niche focus: We have very broad distribution but our
typical consumer is someone older, female, with a higher income, and who is
educated about food. Theyre conscious about what theyre buying sometimes its
organic, but certainly its high-end healthy products.
Price-sensitive mass
market.
TABLE 3: SUMMARY COMPARISON OF HOW TO AND HOW NOT TO
COMMERCIALISE THE SCIENCE OF NATURALLY HEALTHY FOODS
32
with a health benefit that does not also deliver high
convenience will experience modest sales. Eating
vegetables, he points out, is perceived as involving more
preparation than fruit or processed snacks so people
expect them to fail the convenience test.
COCONUT WATER
Another natural health success story is coconut water,
extracted from young, green coconuts. It tastes like
regular water that has been slightly sweetened and has
more potassium than two bananas and 15 times the
amount found in most sports and energy drinks. This
makes it a natural electrolyte drink, three times more
hydrating than water.
Coconut water drinks need no sweetening they
are often 100% all-natural coconut water, a benefit
made possible by packaging and processing technology.
Coconut water oxidizes quickly, but packaging
innovation specifically the development of aseptic
TetraPaks has made it feasible to package and
distribute fresh coconut water.
Launched for the first time in Brazil in 1999, it is a
$350 million (235 million) market there. In the US,
the coconut water category has grown to about $200
million (153 million) a year in retail sales in just five
years according to Nielsen data about five times its
estimated size just a year ago.
Tom Pirko, a leading beverage-industry consultant,
said that coconut-water products have succeeded on
their own merits. Theres always an ongoing search by
consumers for something new and different and exciting
and well-packaged. Coconut water has an inherently
good image, a bit like cranberries do.
SNACKING AND MARKETING
Although beverages are the highest form of
convenience, snack formats and a significant
marketing investment can also create success.
Snacking is the over-arching trend in food and
health, affecting every category, every type of food and
creating a blurring of boundaries between categories as
consumers evaluate multiple choices in the supermarket
from a starting point of their suitability as a convenient
snack. Snacks need to be portable and single-serve, since
snacking is most often a solitary activity.
Just to make the challenge more complicated,
consumer research is no longer able to tell companies
in advance exactly what they should be delivering
the emphasis now is on creating innovations beyond
consumers imaginations and then building consumer
demand and creating new markets. Here are two
examples:
Almonds. Over the last decade the American
almond industry has invested heavily in establishing the
heart-health benefits of almonds which, in common
with many tree nuts, are allowed to make an FDA-
approved heart-health claim and followed this up with
research into almonds effect on satiety and their use as
a weight management food.
By itself, however, the heart health claim would be
of no value. Almonds sold in the traditional whole form
were just too inconvenient and uninteresting to attract
consumers attention.
The almond industrys strength has been its ability to
make almonds available in as many convenient forms
as possible with a focus on snacking and their use as
an ingredient by food processors and to create strong
snack brands.
Pistachios. The Wonderful Pistachios brand has
become a $200 million (153 million) healthy-eating
success story within two years. Owner Paramount
Farms a company that is becoming to the marketing
of naturally healthy but convenient foods what
Danone has become to functional dairy applied to this
brand several lessons from its other major brand, Pom
Wonderful pomegranates.
Both Wonderful Pistachios and Pom Wonderful
juice rely on the intrinsic health benefits of their
basic commodity rather than enhancement with
other ingredients. In 2009, thanks to the brands fun,
celebrity-laden marketing campaign, sales ended up
about 65% higher than for 2008, which was Wonderful
Pistachios first year in the market. In 2010 sales are on
track for $200 million.
Paramounts Los Angeles-based owners, Lynda
and Stewart Resnick, pulled off the same thing with
Pom Wonderful: identifying an under-appreciated but
healthful commodity crop and then turning it into a
marketing phenomenon.
Pistachios enjoy a number of advantages: they benefit
greatly from Americans ever-rising appreciation of
tree nuts as having all-natural nutritional benefits.
Theres an overarching kind of health awareness
about nuts, Marc Seguin, Paramount Farms brand
33
RULES FOR SUCCESS IN NATURALLY HEALTHY
1. Use ingredients with a natural health halo and intrinsic health benefit.
2. In snacks you are not just competing in your own category, but (in the mind of consumers) with every other category in the
supermarket that they could use as a snack. Therefore innovating in packaging, merchandising, ingredients, formulation and
delivery system are all essential to success.
3. As the examples of almonds and coconut water show, key to success in foods and beverages with natural and intrinsic health
benefits is choosing a convenient product format essentially, a beverage or a snack product.
4. For companies drawn to work with this trend and most should be, we believe success will still be driven by the way you
translate your natural health benefit into a convenient format; how your product connects to other key trends; and the marketing
skills you apply.
5. In choosing such an ingredient, or your all-natural health benefit, you need to work with ingredients that the media writes about,
or ingredient suppliers who are educating the media about new ingredients with natural health benefits. By adopting this strategy
you dont need to be able to make a health claim (and in fact you may not be able to make a health claim, especially if you are
operating in Europe).
manager, told NNB. When you layer in the fact that
were a good source of fibre, and pistachios especially
have antioxidants and that sort of thing, we feel like
in general relative to snacks like chips and pretzels
were in a much better position.
Paramount Farms (which also grows and sells
almonds) watched closely what almond growers and
brands did with their commodity. They have a laser
focus on getting people to understand how healthy
almonds are, Seguin said. We saw that as a model
for replicating a consistent health message over a long
period of time and getting it ingrained in peoples
minds.
The fact that Wonderful Pistachios were launched
just as America was entering recession could have been
a problem for a premium-priced nut that retails in an
8oz bag for a suggested $3.99 (3.04) in the realm
of cashews, macadamias and almonds rather than, say,
cheaper peanuts and sunflower seeds.
But Wonderful Pistachios began proving last year that
control of the majority of the crop, along with clever
marketing (you can see examples at
http://getcrackin.com/#sidebar_video_thumb_1534),
can elevate savvy brands above concerns about price
elasticity. Overall advertising spending was expected to
be $20 million (15 million) in 2010.
The most marked trend is for snacks marketed for
their intrinsic healthfulness and perceived naturalness,
even if the snack is a processed product and the natural
wellness appeal comes from added ingredients with a
health halo and even if theyre not present at sufficient
levels to have any measurable effect.
Perceived health benefits from naturally healthy
ingredients is an easy concept for both consumers
and the media to understand. Hence oats, almonds,
cranberries, blueberries and many other foods are
seeing increasing use in snacks and this trend can only
strengthen.
34
When people in our industry ask us about trends, very
often too often in fact they ask What are the hit
ingredients?. This is the wrong question, because they
should be asking What are the trends that will deliver
increased sales and profits? When you look at trends
from that perspective it soon becomes apparent that
selection of packaging formats, packaging innovations
and the rise of consumers willing to pay premiums for
health are bigger trend drivers than most individual
ingredients will ever be.

DIFFERENTIATION THROUGH
PACKAGING
Good packaging, particularly innovative packaging,
is crucial to creating successful health propositions
in increasingly over-crowded markets. At its best,
packaging supports the brand in asserting its difference
from the competition. Its the best way to catch the
consumers eye and earn premium prices and better-
than-average profit margins.
Innovative packaging performs several important
functions:
It signals to consumers that this is something very
different.
Innovative packaging conceals a price premium (see
below). Using packaging, companies can create new
price points and achieve much higher selling prices
for their products. In particular, selling in single-
serve packages makes it very difficult for consumers
to easily compare prices. Putting your new product
in a standard 1-litre gable-top carton, on the other
hand, makes your product look like every other
brand on the shelf and enables consumers to easily
compare prices between your product and regular
products.
If you use packaging innovation to create a new
category then you are defining the direction in
which many of your competitors must go and you
are defining the packaging format they must adopt.
You are in effect establishing your credentials as a
market leader and innovator.
The beverage category is strongest in eye-catching
packaging, but its an opportunity that does not need to
be exclusive to beverages even vegetables can exploit
good packaging, if the minds behind them are creative
enough. When Tony Talalay of Brassica Protection
Products (BPP) brought his product to market he
deliberately sought to distinguish BroccoSprouts from
other sprout offerings on the market. Sold in high-
quality lidded plastic trays, BroccoSprouts are very
young broccoli plants which provide a concentrated
dose of 73mg of the antioxidant sulforaphane per 28g
serving twice as much as mature broccoli. As well as
carrying a prominent claim on its label, the product
provides a small and convenient serving size, perfectly
in line with the preferences of todays health-conscious
consumers.
Weve changed the face of the sprout industry with
our high quality packaging and graphics, says Talalay.
BroccoSprouts also recognized that it was an
advantage in terms of creating credibility with the most-
informed and most health-conscious consumers as
well as creating much higher profit margins to market
their brand at a super-premium price typically $3-$4
(2.52 - 3.36) a pack. This, says Talalay, is roughly
three times as expensive as a pack of alfalfa sprouts,
but he insists it is a price some consumers are willing
to pay, adding that: We have very broad distribution
and we go in every kind of major supermarket, but our
typical consumer is someone older, female, with a higher
income, and who is educated about food. Theyre
10 Key Trends 2011 Packaging and premiumisation
SUMMARY
Packaging lessons learned: More and more companies are learning to apply some of the key lessons of the last 15 years, which
are that:
a) packaging innovation is key to success in the business of food and health
b ) the biggest successes in the business of food and health are in single-serve products
c) concentrated dose of the effective ingredient 100% of what you need in a single-serve has extraordinary resonance with
the most health-conscious consumers
d) focus on lower-volume, higher-margin niches of loyal consumers rather than targeting the price-sensitive mass market these
niche consumers are the same ones for whom packaging innovations have most value.
Better prices, higher margins: After all, there isnt much point in putting in a major effort to create a health brand, with all
the development costs and higher ingredient costs that often entails, unless youre going to be able to earn superior retail prices and
therefore higher profit margins.

Packaging and premiumisation
Key Trend 7:
35
conscious about what theyre buying sometimes its
organic, but certainly its high-end healthy products.
The brand is marketed in the US and Japan and has
sales of over $25 million (19 million) a year and rising.
CONCENTRATED DOSE
The daily dose or concentrated dose format
has become one of the defining product formats
of the global nutrition business. The concept of a
concentrated dose meaning a high, and effective,
dose of an active ingredient in as small a package as
possible (for example a beverage in a 1.7oz-6oz/50ml-
180ml package) has been growing in popularity in
Europe over the last decade, and the idea is now, at last,
taking off in America, after years of resistance to the
concept from marketers.
Its a format that achieves differentiation and
premium pricing, and reassures consumers that they
are getting a guaranteed concentrated dose of the
effective ingredient that provides the benefit they are
looking for.
Its a compelling idea and one with a proven
track record concentrated doses have long been
established as one of the most powerful concepts in
consumer marketing. In laundry powders and liquids for
example, products that offer a concentrated dose have
been redefining the market for a decade. The reason
for this development is very simple, as a senior Unilever
executive was quoted as saying:
Consumers are looking for convenience and ease of
use. Convenience is the big trend as consumers lives get
more hectic.
As a result of the willingness of companies such
as Unilever and Proctor & Gamble to respond to
consumers needs for ultra-convenient products, in the
$34 billion (27 billion) global laundry powders and
liquids market concentrated dose powders and liquids
have grown to a 35% market share, a retail sales value
of $9.5 billion (7.6 billion).
Concentrated dose is an opportunity that has been
neglected by all but a few food and beverage companies.
However, that is slowly beginning to change. On a
conservative estimate, global sales of concentrated dose
beverages are, at retail prices, already $8.5 billion (6.9
billion), of which probiotic dairy and energy shots are
the single largest segments.
PREMIUM IS THE GOAL
As the above examples show, smart brands begin by
targeting the most health-conscious, least price-sensitive
consumer. Yet in many companies, executives convince
themselves that they must to satisfy their need for
volume, to meet the expectations of senior management
or shareholders or to meet their own preconceptions
about how the market should work target the mass
market.
As we have said before, this point of view is mistaken
more often than it is right. One of the key lessons of
the last 15 years is that companies who try to jump
straight into the mass market usually wind up with an
expensive failure, or at best a brand that performs short
of expectations.
Chart 10: Energy drinks are premium-priced but daily dose energy shots
are super-premium
US energy drink prices compared with one-another and with a standard mass-market non-
energy product such as Coca-Cola Classic
Source: Wal-Mart, Albertsons, Walgreens
Price per 32 fl.oz.
(approximately
1 litre)
0
CocaCola
Classic
1 litre $2.19
$2.19
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Monster
Energy Drink
16 fl.oz. $2.29
$4.58
Red Bull
Energy Drink
8.3 fl.oz. $2.09
$8.06
Cranergy
12 fl.oz. $3.99
$10.64
Living Essentials
5-Hour Energy Shot
12 pack $33
2 fl.oz. bottles
$41.25
45
36
The mass market was reluctant to pay high price
premiums for health, even in economic good times, and
is more price-sensitive than ever now, while the cost of
effective health ingredients means that it is difficult to
deliver an effective product at low prices.
Better than aiming a less-than-precise wellness
message at the mass market, look instead for people
for whom health is part of their lifestyle. These people
are, at best, only 20%-25% of the population in most
countries and tend to be older, 40- or 50-plus the age
when people start to notice the changes that life brings to
how they look or feel and also the age when people have
not only the motivation but sufficient disposable income
to spend on maintaining their health.
Health-conscious niches are the key driver of health
brands in almost every case in every country. Take
Danone Activia probiotic yoghurt, the biggest brand of
its kind in the world although it has evolved to be mass
market in Europe it is still something of a niche brand in
many markets. Activia has rocketed to over $438 million
(333 million) in retail sales in the US since 2006, but,
as a Danone spokesperson told New Nutrition Business, the
crucial point is that: It doesnt have broad penetration
among consumers but rather dedicated usage among a
narrow slice of consumers sales are driven by about
5% of consumers.
Here are some examples of successful convergence
of packaging innovation, concentrated dose and
premiumisation:
Beet It is a brand of beetroot juice,
marketed for its clinically-established
benefits as a sports drink. Supplied
to elite athletes and sports teams, the
problem was that beetroot juice has a
polarising taste, according to founder
Lawrence Mallinson: About a third
of people love it and two thirds find it
difficult. To try and get past the taste
barrier we said to the sports people that
we were thinking about concentrating it,
to enable people to down a dose without
having to drink a full 250ml bottle. The response was
positive, so the company launched a 70ml shot version
which contains 5mmol of nitrates, the active ingredient,
and the same amount found in 250ml of beetroot juice.
Explains Mallinson: Its a more intense, slightly
thicker drink. The 250ml juice smells and tastes exactly
like beetroot, but the shot doesnt have the smell of
beetroot or the taste. When you concentrate it, it
becomes very sweet. But people drink it not as a drink
but for its functional properties.
The price is, typically for shots, super-premium at
$2.85 (2.05) for a 70ml bottle, equivalent to around
$40.60 (29.25) per litre. By comparison the 250ml Beet
It sells for around $2.38 (1.70), equivalent to many
smoothie brands.
Anlene Concentrate: The daily
dose version of Fonterras successful
Anlene bone health brand (see Key
Trend 10), each 110ml pack of UHT
milk provides a concentrated dose of
calcium and other nutrients for bone
health. With a message of four times
as much calcium as regular fresh milk,
each 110ml pack delivers 500mg of
calcium. It has since been rolled out in five Asian
markets, where it has driven sales increases despite
retailing at a super-premium price.
Energy shots: Offering a concentrated dose of energy
usually from caffeine and B-vitamins energy shots
have rocketed from nothing to over $1 billion (760
million) in retail sales in six years.
They have achieved this against a
backdrop of economic recession and
despite retailing, as Chart 7 shows, at
a super-premium price. This success
reflects the winning combination of a
benefit you can feel (Key Trend 3), a
benefit that is one of the most-needed
by consumers (Key Trend 2) delivered
in a highly convenient, innovative
dose format that conceals the price
premium.
RULES FOR SUCCESS IN PACKAGING AND PREMIUMISATION
1. Reconsider the urge to take your product to the mass-market. The business of food and health is about value, not volume.
Consumers interest in health is highly personalized and so health markets are highly fragmented. Target niches of
motivated consumers with an effective product, innovative packaging and a premium price.
2. To have a good chance of commanding and keeping a higher price point and higher profit margins, offer a relevant benefit in a
product that consumers believe to be effective, and use packaging innovation to add to your point of difference (to cater to the
increasing need for single-serve products and to conceal your price premium).
3. Exploit the concept of concentrated doses.
4. Lead the way in your category with a new packaging idea that defines the format for that category.
37
Many marketers love the term antioxidants and
many consumers do too, though not as many as some
marketers like to believe. Recent years have seen a
frenzy of interest in using terms such as high in
antioxidants on product labels and in advertising, as
Charts 11 and 12 show. However, the antioxidant frenzy
seems to have passed its peak and with marketing,
regulatory and scientific challenges mounting, the use of
the marketing term antioxidants will only be effective
only in niches where it is delivered by innovative
products (see box on Nestl green coffee), supported by
excellent marketing execution and by strong science.
Two years ago, we downgraded antioxidants from
Key Trend to a Micro-Trend. Our reasoning was simply
that antioxidants, although a widely-used marketing
message, face some significant challenges besides
having become a me-too message and one of the
most common in the supermarket. The response we got
was a barrage of e-mails from people in industry asking
us how we could have made such a mistake and insisting
that antioxidants were one of the most powerful trends.
In 2010 we reluctantly elevated antioxidants back to
being a Key Trend, recognising that as a message it is
hugely popular with marketers. This year, forecasting
for 2011, antioxidants remain a key trend but move
down the ranking. Our trend analysis has the objective
of identifying opportunities for growth and in this
respect antioxidants are currently faced with problems
as sceptical regulators move to curb use of the term in
marketing, and challenge the underlying science.
Marketing messages about antioxidants have become
possibly the most commonly-found message on food and
beverages. As Charts 11 and 12 show, there has been a
massive growth in the number of new product launches
communicating the perceived benefit of being high in
antioxidants.
10 Key Trends 2011 Antioxidants
SUMMARY
Regulation threat: Fuelled by the often questionable science, regulators in Europe and the US are training their guns on
antioxidants and their lead may provide a cue to regulators elsewhere. Europes rigorous new health claims system has rejected
every antioxidant-based claim that has come before it.
Suffering from overuse: So common has the message high in antioxidants become that using it will not result in higher sales
or higher selling prices. Marketers of new products will have to move beyond the high-in-antioxidant message and invest in science
so that like other functional foods they can be more specific in their benefit statements.
Antioxidants: popular but future uncertain?
Key Trend 8:
Pom Wonderful pomegranate juices success rested on: leveraging the benefits and healthy image of fruit (Key
Trend 4); offering a previously inconvenient fruit in a convenient-and-natural form (Key Trend 6); delivering a
premium product in innovative packaging (Key Trend 7). Poms appeal, like that of many high antioxidant
products, has been niche not mass.
38
A halo of wellness
The high antioxidant content marketing message is not a
direct benefit message but an ingredient statement, with
the benefits implied. Consumers are free to interpret
this as meaning what they want it to mean to them,
individually. It has worked because consumers perceive
antioxidants as something healthy to include in the diet
and the many possible benefits of antioxidants are being
actively communicated by the media.
Brands carrying the antioxidant message that have
succeeded have usually done so because:
They were often first to market with the message.
They have linked it to specific benefits that resonate
with the consumer.
Their products have been packaged and presented
in a way that strongly differentiates them.
Their products have been supported by significant
marketing communications efforts.
The products taste good.
Antioxidants is a term whose wellness halo gives
consumers permission to enjoy something indulgent
that they wanted to consume anyway red wine
and dark chocolate are good examples. Its an easy
sell when you give people permission to eat more
chocolate because of a supposed health benefit no
matter how imprecise.
Another perspective on the perceived success of the
high in antioxidant marketing gambit is that, studied
closely, its clearly most successful when the products
using it connect to other, arguably more important,
trends. Take Pom Wonderful pomegranate juice its
success arose from leveraging the benefits and healthy
image of fruit (Key Trend 4); offering a previously
inconvenient fruit in a convenient-and-natural form
(Key Trend 6) and delivering a premium product in
innovative packaging (Key Trend 7). The heart health
benefit was also important, and the fact that it came
from antioxidants was a reason to believe, but only one
small part of a bigger picture. And in case we forget,
Pom Wonderfuls appeal, like that of many high
antioxidant products, has been niche not mass.
EVERYDAY MESSAGE NO
LONGER OFFERS A POINT
OF DIFFERENCE
The presence of antioxidants is being used as a
generalized wellness message across multiple categories.
But its the increasingly everyday nature of the
antioxidant message that poses the problem. The term
antioxidant has became so common it has ceased to be
a point of difference, communicated by tea, chocolate,
Nescaf, spices, vegetables, juices, berries and a host of
other product types.
The antioxidant message helped create sales for
the first products to use it, but new entrants with a
high antioxidant message have no point of difference
and in fact recent would-be superfruits have mostly
performed poorly. And while its true that adding
the antioxidant message to an existing brand is an
appealing secondary marketing message that can raise
a products health profile with consumers, very, very few
brands gain any significant and lasting sales increases as
a result of using it.
So common is the term that its a mistake to think
that simply adding the message high in antioxidants
to a product will result in higher sales or higher selling
prices. The benefit and whether it is relevant and
credible is what matters most to the consumer.
Marketers of new products will have to move beyond
the high-in-antioxidant message and invest in science
so that like other functional foods they can be more
specific in their benefit statements. In Europe this will be
the only strategy available.
REGULATORS SIGHTS SET
ON ANTIOXIDANTS
The biggest threat to the use of antioxidant marketing
comes from regulators and the scientific community.
The latter is increasingly sceptical of the antioxidant
marketing concept, and with good reason (see box).
Fuelled by the often questionable science, regulators
in Europe and the US are training their guns on
antioxidants and their lead may provide a cue to
regulators elsewhere.
Nestls high antioxidant green coffee is a perfect
example of successful brand creation in the
antioxidant space. It provides a health benefit in
a natural and convenient form (Key Trend 6) in
some countries advertising emphasizes that weve
returned to nature; provides a first-in-its-category
product that offers a healthy alternative to green
tea; its delivered in an eye-catching package thats
unlike anything else on the coffee shelf, and it
retails at a premium price (Key Trend 7).
39
SCIENCE GIVES LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ANTIOXIDANT MESSAGE
Most consumers will tell you that antioxidants are good although most wont know exactly why. More
informed consumers may paint a picture of molecules racing around the body neutralising bad free radicals.
Emerging science is now suggesting that even the word antioxidants is a misnomer and really obscures how
these compounds provide a health benefit.
Neutralisation of free radicals is not primarily how they work, and may only be a minor part of the health
benefits of antioxidants. Consider this. The total antioxidant capacity (TAC) of plasma in a normal
individual has been estimated at 500 M. Even the maximum estimated concentration of polyphenols of
10-20 M represents a transient 2%-4% increase.
Just to underscore this point, although a recent study on apple consumption outlined that the increase in TAC
from apple consumption was approximately 37%, this increase came entirely from sugar metabolites and
there was no detectable increase associated with the polyphenols. The authors suggest that this applies more
generally to other plant-derived high antioxidant foods
1
.
In addition, it is now well established that antioxidant polyphenols are almost completely metabolised and that
the compounds that your cells see are not the same ones that are measured in a chemical antioxidant assay. In
very simple terms, what ORAC measures is not what your body actually gets.
So what is happening? How do these compounds work? There are a number of suggested mechanisms:
induction of endogenous antioxidants up regulating the enzymes that produce the bodys own
antioxidants
regulation of inflammation influencing the bodys complex inflammation pathway
regulation of cell proliferation important in cancer prevention
regulation of gene transcription multiple effects in many important body pathways
direct antioxidants, the free radical neutralising theory it is possible that there are some direct
antioxidant effects, perhaps on the gut lining and intestinal microflora
1. Stevenson, D.E.,& Hurst, R.D. (2007) Polyphenolic phytochemicals just antioxidants or much more?
Cellular and Molecular Life Sciences, 64, 22, 2900-2916.
Source: Crawford K., Mellentin J., Successful Superfruit Strategy
In Europe, for example, the antioxidant trend will
soon be dead, killed off by the new health claims system
which requires rigorous scientific substantiation, using
human clinical studies, of claimed health benefits. With
very few exceptions, human studies on antioxidants are
simply not available that would satisfy the European
regulator (EFSA). Moreover, EFSA requires ingredients
that are the basis of health claims to be properly
characterised something which cannot yet be done for
most antioxidants to the level that would satisfy EFSA.
And hence EFSA has rejected every antioxidant-
based claim that has come before it. In February 2010
EFSA published opinions on 169 antioxidant-related
claims. These covered a range of food and drink
products, such as blackcurrant juice, banana, guava and
prunes, as well as food components and ingredients such
as flavonoids from green tea, grape seed extract and
olive biophenols. All were negative. Essentially, EFSAs
problem with the applications was twofold: first, tests
showing the oxidant power of a product (such as the
widely used ORAC test) were not proof that a product
had an antioxidant effect; and second, the evidence
presented that products did have an antioxidant effect in
the body was not sufficiently persuasive.
As a result, regulatory experts in Europe are advising
companies to remove all references to antioxidants from
labels, advertising and websites.
Liz Read, company nutritionist at Nestl, which
markets the Nescaf Green Blend antioxidant-rich
coffee brand, told New Nutrition Business that she was not
surprised by the raft of negative opinions issued. It
was likely to happen because of the state that general
antioxidant research is in at the moment, she says.
The research weve got for the epidemiological effects
of foods that contain antioxidants is really good, but we
probably need another 10 years to get it into the state of,
say, polyunsaturates and fibre.
Proving the benefits of antioxidants in the body will
be a challenge, Read adds: You have to show first of
all that it is absorbed by the body so its bio-available,
secondly that it is then having an effect on the cells in
the body, and thirdly that these are definitely antioxidant
effects. Its a case of joining the dots.
Read says one way to avoid the antioxidants
conundrum would be to use the term polyphenols
instead and indeed Nestl does do so in advertising
and labelling for Nescaf Green Blend. But she
admits: We could say polyphenols but consumers
dont yet understand what polyphenols are. The word
antioxidants is well understood by consumers.
40
RULES FOR SUCCESS IN ANTIOXIDANTS
1. Link your product to specific benefits that resonate with the consumer contains antioxidants is a message that is rapidly
ceasing to provide a point of difference.
2. Invest in science to establish the credibility of the specific benefit of your products antioxidant contents
3. Package and present your products in a way that strongly differentiates them.
Source: Mintel GNPD new product database
Chart 11: US number of new food and beverage product launches each year
which mention antioxidants
As these two charts show, the antioxidant marketing craze may have passed its peak, and in
Europe regulation will bar the use of the term antioxidants.
Number
0
2003
34
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2004
147
2005
156
2006
356
2007
399
2008
663
2009 2010 YTD
521
452
Chart 12: Europe number of new food and beverage product launches each
year which mention antioxidants
European data from France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium
Number
0
2003
32
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Source: Mintel GNPD new product database
2004
53
2005
109
2006
115
2007
273
2008
304
2009 2010 YTD
309
231
Nestl, as one of the worlds biggest food companies,
has deep pockets and can well afford to conduct the
necessary proprietary research to meet the extraordinary
standards demanded by EFSA. Smaller companies may
not be in such a fortunate position and it is possible that
the term antioxidant might become one that only the
largest companies can afford to use.
41
Theres little doubt that better immune function in
the sense of better defences against colds and flu is
high on consumers wish list. According to research
by Health Focus International in 32 countries,
frequent colds/flu has evolved into one of
the top- four health issues for consumers, with
the percentage saying it is an issue that affects them
personally rising to 28% in the companys 2010 survey,
from 22% in 2008 (see Chart 1).
Hence it isnt surprising to find sales of dietary
supplements claiming an immune benefit on the
increase, according to Nutrition Business Journal. It
reports rising US sales of vitamin C (up 8% to $970
million/727 million), echinacea (up 7% to $130
million/97.5 million) and other ingredients associated
with immunity.
Worldwide, better immunity for their children is the
top health concern of mothers which is why better
immunity is the benefit offered by most brands of infant
formula as well as many dairy products aimed at the
three-to-nine age group.
David Walsh, VP communications at Biothera, a
biotechnology company founded to commercialise
Wellmune WGP, a beta glucan carbohydrate with
immune-boosting properties, says food and beverage
companies are fast waking up to consumer
interest in products with immune benefits:
Weve been selling immunity products for several
years. Four or five years ago wed go into a company
and talk to the food scientist there, and theyd say: this
technology is great. But then the marketers would say:
how do you sell immunity? It doesnt make you feel
different its like selling insurance.
Consumers have either become more
educated or more aware that the immune
system is important to their overall health. So
theres been more of a demand for immune products
and consequently the food and beverage manufacturers
are responding and looking at those foods.
A wealth of ingredients from colostrum to
probiotics to beta glucans and many others are
targeting this benefit and some are getting traction.
Some even have some strong evidence to back up their
claims, such as Vitamin D (Micro Trend 3) which is in
the unusual position of having obtained an approval for
an immune health claim in Europe a place where, it
should be remembered, the regulator (EFSA) has a track
record of rejecting 98% of all health claim petitions.
Based on clinical evidence and EFSAs requirements
for clinical evidence are at pharmaceutical-type levels
EFSA approved a health claim as follows:
Vitamin D contributes to the normal function of the immune
system and healthy inflammatory response.
So why does immunity face speed bumps? There
are two reasons:
1. Better technology needed to feel the
benefit. Although many products (especially probiotic
dairy) offer an immune benefit, in reality few have yet
established any significant success. Those few include
Danone Actimel, arguably the worlds biggest brand
of its kind, with its supports your natural defences
messages, and dairy and fruit juice products based on
LGG (see box). Although immunity ought logically to
have a feel the benefit (Key Trend 3) advantage, in
practice that benefit has been difficult to demonstrate,
with only Danone among immunity brands using feel
the difference or get your money back promotions.
Although consumer demand for immunity products
is growing, its because consumers are looking for
SUMMARY
Consumers interest in immunity is high. Worldwide, immunity ranks among consumers top-4 health concerns that affect
them personally and boosting childrens immunity is a particular concern for parents.
Scientific substantiation. Scientifically the immune-boosting effect has been hard to demonstrate to the satisfaction of
regulators.
Feel the benefit. Moreover, many products do not enable consumers to quickly and easily feel the benefit (Key Trend 3) and
only one brand has made feel the difference a key part of its marketing Danone Actimel, now the worlds biggest immunity
brand. Marketers have yet to work out an effective execution strategy for immunity and hence shy away from it other than as a very
broad wellness message an approach which regulators are now targeting.
Claims under attack. Regulators have come down hard on immunity claims and show every sign that they will continue to take
a strong line against them. All of the above factors have together held immunity back from becoming a Key Trend, which is what
consumer interest suggests it should be and could become in time.
Immunitys regulatory and marketing speed-bumps
Key Trend 9:
10 Key Trends 2011 Immunity
42
products that will genuinely enable them to feel better
something that people will measure though their
personal experience of fewer episodes of cold and flu
and episodes of shorter duration. Technology that
can clearly give people this effect coupled with savvy
marketing such as that used for Actimel will be the
key to achieving significant success and growing brands
in this sector. Using immunity as a wellness message
without being able to prove better health will not do
much for any brand as we have seen over and again
for the last 15 years.
2. Regulation immunity under attack.
Substantiating immune health claims may be one of
the most difficult benefits to substantiate for any food
component. Substantiation of an immune benefit is
complicated and it is often difficult to demonstrate an
immune effect. Since many brands have been marketed
in recent years which neither enable consumers to
feel the benefit nor clinically demonstrate an effect,
marketers preferring to use immunity as a shorthand
for a soft wellness claim, there is understandably
scepticism about immune products among regulators.
As a result, for regulators and mischievous lawyers
immune health has become a low-hanging fruit:
America. Regulators have made their intentions
clear. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has said it
will be paying particular attention to immunity claims,
particularly those made by probiotics, and has expressed
a dislike of claims to boost or strengthen immunity.
The FTC has also indicated that it is looking not only
at brand owners but ingredient suppliers who should
have a robust science base if they are encouraging
their customers to make immunity claims on finished
products.
Nestl is the most recent victim of the assault on
immunity. The company must have thought that it
would settle a complaint by the FTC against its Boost
Kid Essentials in a way that left it with no egg on its
face. As the FTCs legal document states, the settlement
with Nestl does not constitute an admissionthat the
law has been violated as allegedor that the facts as
alleged in the draft complaintare true.
But the company cannot have imagined that David
Vladeck, director of the FTCs Bureau of Consumer
Protection, would use the settlement to tell the press
that: Nestls claims that its probiotic product would
prevent kids from getting sick or missing school just
didnt stand up to scrutiny.
Boost Kid Essentials is a probiotic drink intended for
children aged 1-13. It made two claims:
Reduces the duration of acute diarrhea in children up to the age
of thirteen
Reduces absences from daycare or school due to illness
The FTC charged that the claims were deceptive
and that the company made deceptive claims in
television, magazine, and print ads that the product
prevents upper respiratory tract infections in children
and protects against colds and u by strengthening the
immune system.
Under the settlement with the FTC, Nestl has agreed
to stop claiming that Boost will reduce the risk of colds,
u, and other upper respiratory tract infections unless
the claim is approved by the FDA and has agreed to
stop claiming that Boost will reduce childrens sick-day
absences and the duration of acute diarrhea in children
up to age 13.
So does this mean Nestl was using probiotic strains
that could not be shown to have the claimed effect? In
fact the strain used in Boost is a well-researched strain,
as you would expect from a company that claims that
all its products are based strongly in science. It seems
that Nestl, which boasts of its industry-leading R&D
into health, its unrivalled investment in science and the
biggest R&D department in the global food industry,
chose not to defend the science supporting its Boost Kid
Essentials immune health claims.
In fact, lately major companies seem to be rolling
over and surrendering to any challenges to their science.
Inevitably, this gives rise to suspicion among the public
that they may not be able to provide a defense and it
encourages regulators to go after any and all immunity
claims, while giving hope to lawyers who are pursuing
class actions in the hope of large financial pay-outs.
Europe: Like US regulators, those in Europe seem to
have set their faces against immunity. EFSA has rejected
every immune health claim put before it, sometimes
legitimately. But EFSA has even rejected immune claims
that were well-supported. Witness its rejection of an
immune health claim for Danone Baby Nutritions
infant formula. Although backed by 25 peer-reviewed
studies published in learned journals and conforming
with the requirements for immune heath claims
specified several years before in an EU-funded project
called PASSCLAIM, which followed the guidance of
immunologists and paediatricians, EFSA still rejected
the claim, even going so far as to question the criteria
The rst-ever Actimal Feel the Difference Challenge was
pioneered in the UK in 2003. It had a dramatic impact on the
popularity of the brand: by the end of 2005, Actimal had become
a top-ten UK take-home soft drink alongside Coca-Cola, Sprite
and Red Bull.
43
used by paediatricians prompting one European
professor of paediatrics to write to the European
Commission asking ironically if EFSA would care to tell
him and his fellow scientists what criteria they should
be using in their research. Against that background of
eccentric decision-making it is hardly surprising that
Danone decided to withdraw its immune health claim
petition for Actimel in 2010 rather than face the risk of
rejection.
What all this means is that if your science is not
already well-advanced in immunity and you cannot
deliver a feel the benefit advantage supported by data
that will satisfy vigilant regulators, you must:
a) accept that you are making a long-term, multi-
million dollar investment in establishing the
science, or
b) stop and do something else, or
c) partner with other companies if you are
looking at a widely available material, to share the
investment and risk.
Regulatory uncertainty remains a big headache for
advancing the immune health benefit, but so too does
the fact that, with the exception of Actimel and Gefilus,
marketers have yet to work out an effective brand and
communication strategy for immunity.
CLINICALLY-PROVEN IMMUNITY FROM JUICE & DAIRY
Gefilus and LGG: One of the pioneers in immune health is innovative
Finnish dairy company Valio, which has spent the past 20 years turning
its probiotic strain LGG into a major worldwide success. Since 1987
Valio has held worldwide commercial rights for strain Lactobacillus
rhamnosus GG ATCC 53103, better known as Lactobacillus GG or LGG.
Valio launched the first LGG-based dairy product in its domestic market
in 1990, called Gefilus. Since then the Gefilus brand has grown and
grown and has been extended to a wide range of products for almost
every dairy consumption occasion, such that per capita consumption
of Gefilus in Finland is over 6kg arguably the highest per capita
consumption of probiotic products in the world.
Gefilus products carry an immune health claim, which translates as
a strong dose of immunity. LGGs claim will be reviewed by the
European health claim regulator in 2011, but with 518 clinical studies, it
would be surprising if even European regulators can find fault.
Valio has successfully commercialised LGG globally it can be found in dairy products in 35 countries,
including some of the most successful probiotic brands, such as Emmi Aktifit in Switzerland and Campinas
Vifit in the Netherlands, the Unimilk brand in Russia, the Parmalat Vaalis brand in Australia (that countrys
biggest probiotic brand), as well as in supplements in 15 countries.
Valio launched Gefilus probiotic juice in Finland in 1997. Delivering an effective immune benefit, by 2010
Gefilus juice had taken an impressive 32% share of Finlands chilled juice market, becoming the countrys
biggest chilled juice brand. When you consider that Finland has a population of just 5 million, you can see
that if Finnish per capita consumption of Gefilus Juice was translated pro rata into a larger country, such as
the US, it would be a $800 million (600 million) annual-sales brand.
Gefilus juice, which is also now set for a global roll-out, also illustrates the extent to which fruit is becoming a
key carrier for health benefits (see Key Trend 4).
Launched in mid-2009, each 250ml glass of Oasis
Health Break provides two servings of fruit and 100 mg
of Wellmune WGP, from Biothera. Fruit juice is a logical
format for delivering an immume health benet.
44
Bones and movement may seem a strange team, but
theyre a pairing already made by the worlds most
successful bone health brand, the Asian-based dairy
brand Anlene, in response to consumer insight. Its a
more relevant description than either bone health or
joint health, neither of which by itself captures the
niche opportunity that is emerging.
For science-based companies bones and movement
has many attractions:
Its an area where it is possible to deliver a feel
the benefit promise, one of the most compelling
marketing messages (see Key Trend 3).
It is also an opportunity for anyone whose
technology enables them to deliver a
concentrated dose as Anlene already does very
effectively in bone health and Elations does in
joint health.
Its an area where beverages can hope to
provide the same benefits as pills but in a more
convenient and palatable form.
And its set for growth as populations around the
world age even in Asia, 25% of the population
is over the age of 50. The market for products
that enable people to maintain movement and
independence by protecting their bones and
joints is growing. Worldwide sales of pills
for joint health alone usually based on a
combination of glucosamine and chondroitin
are more than $2 billion (1.5 billion) already,
with $800 million (611 million) of that in the
US alone.
Although joint health is a market
dominated by pills, in America beverage
brands are challenging that dominance
by providing scientifically-proven joint
health ingredients in a more
convenient and better-
tasting form. Joint Juice and
Elations were the pioneers
in this new segment thats
growing in double digits
and moving beyond the
embryonic phase.
Joint Juice was
developed in 2001
by an orthopedic
surgeon, as a vehicle
for glucosamine. The
conviction of the
companys founders
was that consumers
would rather drink such
supplements than take them in pill form. Many people
dont like to swallow pills, or find it difficult, and many
joint health pills need to be taken several times a
day to provide an effective dose defined by the US
governments National Institutes of Health, whose
research found that dosages of 1500mg of glucosamine
and 1200mg of chondroitin significantly relieved joint
pain in those who suffered at least moderate levels of it.
To an extent the founders of Joint Juice were right
the beverage format accounts for more than 15% of
the American joint health supplement business overall,
10 Key Trends 2011 Bones and movement
SUMMARY
Scope for niche brands: For companies willing to provide the right marketing support for a product that can deliver an effective
dose in a clinically-proven, ultra-convenient, premium-priced, niche, delicious-tasting form, and willing to grow the brand slowly,
there is scope for niche brands with a bone-joint-movement health benefit platform.
Beverages growing: Although joint health is a market dominated by pills, in America beverage brands are challenging that
dominance with convenience and better taste. Beverages are enjoying double digit growth.
Glucosamine opportunities beyond Europe: Beverages based on glucosamine cannot now be marketed in Europe because
of health claims regulations but the idea has potential in the rest of the world.
Anlene leads the way: Fonterras Anlene remains the pioneer in the area of differentiated, premium bone health dairy brands.
Concentrated dose: the pioneering products both for bone and joint health show the power of providing a concentrated and
effective dose of the active ingredient.
New niche in kids nutrition: the increasingly compelling evidence about bone formation in the years 9-13 opens a new niche
for concentrated dose products for the most health-conscious mothers (see Micro-Trend 2).
Bones and movement
Key Trend 10:
45
a steadily-growing market in which retail sales of
pills are valued at $900 million (687 million) in
2010. In fact sales of pills actually declined slightly in
2010 all of the joint health markets growth was in
beverages.
Elations, the rival brand in the
US market, expected to reach an
annualized sales rate of about $55
million (37 million) by the end
of 2009 and is on a path to reach
$85 million to $100 million
(57 million - 67 million)
in 2010. In 2008, Elations
sales were just $15 million
(10 million). Elations
advantage, according to VP
of marketing Mike Burton,
is that: Boomers dont
like to take pills thats
something that always
has been associated with
getting old and sick, and
they dont want to feel old
or sick, especially when theyre
only in their 40s and 50s. They view themselves as
much more active and able to continue with their
lives than people of their age a few generations ago,
and a beverage fits better into their overall lifestyle.
While beverages based on glucosamine cannot
now be marketed in Europe where the health
claim regulator (EFSA) in 2009 rejected claims that
consuming glucosamine can help maintain your
joint health it is an idea with potential in the rest
of the world, as the developing success in the US is
showing.
Even European regulators, however, cannot
object to a dairy product that is clinically proven to
maintain bone health.
Marketing a high-calcium milk is one
of the most difficult things a marketer can
try to do. Theres no technical advantage any
competitor can launch an identical product
and many consumers believe that regular milk is
already high in calcium. Moreover, the benefit
improved bone health is not one that the
customer can see or feel (see Key Trend 3).
That one brand can overcome all these obstacles
so successfully and all at a premium price is
the result not only of having a clinically-proven
product that actually works, but more importantly
a sophisticated, focused, long-term consumer
communication effort backed by significant
marketing funds.
The brand is Fonterra Brands Anlene, the
worlds biggest clinically proven bone-health
dairy brand, with annual retail sales in Asia in
excess of $300 million (200 million) and an average
75% share of the high-calcium milk market despite
selling at a 100% price premium to regular milk.
Anlene is a low/no-fat calcium-fortified milk sold
primarily as a powder but also as a yoghurt and in
ready-to-drink formats. Two 250ml servings provide
100% of the RDI of calcium and the product is
also fortified with vitamin D3, magnesium and zinc,
which are important in bone formation.
One aspect that has made Anlene stand out
is the way the brand has always worked
to establish the benefit in the mind of
the consumer. Since the 1990s the brand has
provided millions of people with bone health scans
through the Anlene Bone Health Check consumer
education teams who visit clinics, supermarkets and
shopping malls where they set up bone scanning
machines and offer free bone scans to passers-by.
The Anlene Bone Health Check, already a
massive commitment to consumer communication,
has been supplemented by The Anlene Movement,
which built on the insights from consumer research
that for consumers the benefit of bone health is
mobility.
The brand is focused on a core target of women
aged over 40, to whom bone health is very relevant.
Anlene has been successfully extended
to a concentrated daily dose format (Key
Trend 7) that provides a dose of 500mg of calcium
per 110ml pack. A super-premium product, it has
nevertheless been successful across Asia.
Interestingly, despite the huge belief in the dairy
industry in the importance of marketing the bone
health benefits of milk, no-one has yet succeeded in
creating differentiated, premium bone health dairy
brands. Anlene remains the pioneer in this area, in
a unique position, just as Kellogg Special K is in
weight management, and look closely at its strategy
and you will see that although it stands on a very
different benefit platform its strategy has much in
common with that of Special K.
In the area of movement and bone health there
are also many common elements of strategy between
the two pioneering brands, Anlene and Elations.
These include:
A benefit you can feel or measure:
randomized, double-blind clinical trials that
enable the brand to claim a tangible benefit.
Focused consumer target: Elations began
as a brand meant broadly for those with
osteoarthritis pain, but nowadays targets older
women in America, at least, the condition
is split about two-thirds to one-third between
women and men. In Asia Anlene targets women
over the age of 40.
Guaranteed dose of the effective ingredient.
Convenience and taste.
Finally, its worth highlighting that bone health
provides the opportunity for a new niche in
kids nutrition.
46
The increasingly compelling evidence about the
extent to which the years 9-13 are the most important
for bone formation among girls (see Micro-Trend 2) is
leading public health experts to propose a significant
increase in the RDI for calcium for this age-group.
However, not all girls of that age will be willing to
consume enough dairy to meet their requirements
(and in fact teenage girls are a group well-known for
not meeting their calcium RDIs) so an opportunity
is presenting itself for a concentrated dose product,
rather like Anlene Concentrate, which health-conscious
mothers can give to daughters who arent willing
to consume large quantities of dairy. Its a concept
that would be particularly relevant in Asian markets,
where dairy consumption is a taste challenge for many
consumers.
RULES FOR SUCCESS IN BONES AND MOVEMENT
1. Technology that works. Your product must be clinically proven.
2. If the product doesnt enable the consumer to feel the difference quickly, as Elations does, then you must show them the
differences, as Anlene does.
3. You are not marketing bone health, you are marketing a healthy lifestyle, ease of movement and activity.
4. No brand can succeed without a significant and long-term commitment (see Anlene and Elations) to investment in marketing
and consumer education.
5. Packaging innovation creates convenience and a point of difference and helps secure premium pricing.
Spain: Danones Densia is one of the few brand to have taken
followed the lead of Anlene and offer a bone health benet.
It achieved 16 million ($20 million) in retail sales in its rst
year on the market in Spain. The Densia package carries a
graphic showing a spine, the brand, and prominently carries
the claim: Helps you to maintain your bone density (In Spanish:
Ayuda a mantener tu densidad Osea).
Anlene Concentrate an extension of the Anlene brand,
Asias most-successful high-calcium milk, Anlene provides a
concentrated dose of 500mg of calcium per 110ml pack.
Anlene focuses on demonstrating a tangible, clinically-proven
bone health benet.
47
Demand for high-quality sources of protein is set to
grow significantly in the years ahead. The most health-
conscious consumers are becoming more aware of
the benefits of protein in the diet, while producers of
protein, and in particular the dairy industry with its
huge annual output of whey proteins, are working hard
to find ways to take protein out of the body-builder and
elite athlete niche and into wider markets.
At the moment the two most significant market
opportunities are:
Weight management. Proteins image as a valuable
part of a diet that helps people manage their weight has
received several boosts in recent years, most recently in
November 2010 following the publication in the New
England Journal of Medicine of the results of the worlds
largest diet study (see Key Trend 6).
The large-scale randomised study, called Diogenes,
investigated the optimum diet composition for
preventing and treating obesity.
The researchers found that high-protein, low-glycemic
index (GI) diets were the most effective for weight
management.
The researchers favour diets with 25% of calories
from high-quality, low-fat protein sources a result
which perfectly favours quality proteins, such as whey.
Boomers muscle strength and independence.
Maintaining muscle strength and independence is
a marketers way of saying ghting sarcopenia.
Sarcopenia or muscle wastage is a condition that
affects everybody to a greater or lesser extent as they age.
Its a worry because it impacts on a persons strength,
which can put someone at a greater risk of having a fall
and breaking a bone. With people increasingly living
for longer it is a health problem that threatens to reach
epidemic proportions. The ageing of the boomers, the
oldest of whom are now in their sixties, and their desire
to maintain their independence and well-being will likely
see them in old age, as at other stages of their lives,
become a signicant and high-value niche market for
high quality protein products.
Sarcopenia affects everyone. Although it is a
condition caused by several factors, including a lack
of exercise, there is general agreement among experts
that sarcopenia can be aggravated by a low intake of
dietary protein. Elderly people have a much higher need
for protein because theyre getting increased muscle
SUMMARY
Opportunities in weight management and muscle wasting: Demand for high-quality sources of protein is set to grow
significantly in the years ahead; the biggest opportunities lie in protein products targeting weight management and sarcopenia
(muscle wasting). The latter is an issue which affects everyone past the age of 60 and boomers can be expected to create new niches
for products that help maintain their muscle strength and therefore their activity levels and independence.
Still to find the right strategy: The industry has not yet found an executable and successful product and marketing strategy a
key factor in keeping protein (for now) as a Micro-Trend.
Format key to success: Protein needs to be delivered in formats that are credible to consumers. It makes sense as a meal centre,
as the success of Quorn mycoprotein shows. Cookies is a format thats been a hit with elderly consumers. In beverages, proteins
natural partner is a dairy drink, particularly one offering a concentrated dose. However, products that combine protein with
water have not worked and other combinations might also be challenging.
Protein
Micro-Trend 1:
Micro-Trends 2011 Protein
The efforts of breakfast cereal brands such as Kellogg-owned
Kashi are raising consumer awareness that protein can come
in many forms although few are motivated by its presence
in cereal.
48
wastage, so its important for them to eat more protein
as a result. But your ability to assimilate protein shrinks
markedly after the age of 50. Someone in their 20s, if
they eat whey protein or beef protein, will get as much
benet from either. Someone in their 60s will get almost
100% of the protein from whey protein, because its
easily absorbed. But theyll probably get only about 60%
of the benet of eating the protein from beef.
FOOD MATRIX AND
PRODUCT FORMAT KEY FOR
CREDIBILITY
The challenge to industry is to figure out in what
categories and in what product formats protein can
be successful and credible, and how its benefits can be
marketed. At the moment the industry is struggling with
this challenge and has not yet found an executable and
successful product and marketing strategy a key factor
in keeping protein (for now) as a Micro-Trend.
Protein needs to be delivered in formats that are
credible to consumers and if your product format is
a new and unfamiliar source of protein, then you need
to be willing to invest significant sums in slowly and
patiently building that credibility.
Meal centres and soups. Protein is one of the few
ingredients which makes sense to consumers in meals, as
a significant part of a meal. This focus on meal-centres
is one of the key reasons for the success of one of the
industrys greatest innovations of the last 50 years, the
fifth protein, marketed to consumers under the brand
name Quorn.
Quorn was created back in the late 1960s when
it was widely believed that the 21st century would
witness a protein shortage. UK-based RHM food group
successfully isolated an organism from soil Fusarium
sp. A3/5 which could be processed into an edible
protein, called mycoprotein. At the same time chemical
giant ICI (today known as AstraZeneca) developed a
fermentation technology to produce protein. The two
companies joined forces to create Quorn a totally
new type of protein, not taken from an animal, but
fermented in a factory. Although mycoprotein is from a
natural source, the fact that it had no history of human
consumption meant that it had to go through a rigorous
process of safety evaluation before regulators finally
granted permission for its use in foods in 1985, some
18 years after development began.
But only now is that protein shortage forecast almost
50 years ago becoming a reality and its effect has been
to push up the prices of traditional proteins, such as
beef, lamb, pork, chicken and fish. The growing middle
class in emerging countries from China to Brazil is
demanding a richer protein diet (see Chart 13), straining
the industrys supply.
In 2010 global meat prices hit a 20-year high as
robust demand from emerging countries has coincided
with a drop in production by exporters such as the
US and Australia. The UN Food and Agriculture
Organisations index of meat prices in 2010 hit its
highest level since 1990, up 16% over the past year, after
beef prices climbed to a two-year high and the cost of
pork and poultry prices rose.
Quorn has meanwhile grown since the early 1990s to
become a profitable brand on sale in 10 countries with
retail sales in excess of $269 million (194 million). Its
a perfect example of the innovation thats possible with
high quality proteins.
Quorn boasts the perfect nutritional
prole for todays consumer it contains no
allergens, its low in fat and high in bre, is
an easily digestible protein thats on a par
with meat in terms of essential amino acid
content and its supported by a growing
body of evidence that regular consumption
can lower LDL cholesterol and promote a
sense of satiety.
A signicant part of Quorns success
stems from NPD efforts that have
increasingly presented Quorn in forms,
such as ready meals, which are familiar and
acceptable to consumers. Today the range
encompasses over 32 items, both chilled
and frozen, such as deli meats in a range
of meat avours and ready meals ranging
The Quorn range extends to over 35
convenient products, marketed in 10
countries.
Chart 13: Global meat demand on the increase
By region (Million tonnes)
49
from spaghetti bolognese to red Thai curry
as well as the more traditional meat-free
options of sausages, burgers, mince and
nuggets.
Cookies. It may seem unlikely, but
when serial food entrepreneur Mathew
Richardson of UK-based Applied
Nutritional Research turned his attention
to the growing problem of sarcopenia
in the elderly, he found that soft cookies
were one of the formats most suited to
the elderly market. The kinds of products
currently on the market dont appeal
to older consumers, says Richardson.
Elderly people dont like drinking
milkshakes or eating chewy bar-type
things, says Richardson. They just dont eat them.
But theyll always have a biscuit with a cup of tea.
Data from market analyst Kantar Worldpanel supports
Richardsons assertion that the elderly are heavy
consumers of biscuits. Its research shows that women
aged over 65 buy biscuits an average of 48 times a year;
for women aged 28-35 the frequency of purchase is 34
times a year.
Applied Nutritional Researchs first product is a
50% protein soft cookie called Probake50, currently
undergoing trials at the world-leading Institute of
Ageing at the University of Newcastle.
Beverages. Selecting the right beverage format
for protein is not proving easy. Taste protein adds
a certain astringency in beverages is one of the
biggest challenges. Dairy protein in a dairy drink is a
logical connection, and while such a product might
not have much appeal to the elderly market, it is the
kind of product that would hold appeal for health-
conscious but not necessarily body-building males aged
18-25 with a message about muscle strength. One
innovative approach which might get some traction is
to focus on the most knowledgeable consumers with a
concentrated dose (see Key Trend 7) product. This is
the approach being taken by start-up Provita, whose 3oz
(90ml) drink delivers 42g of medical-grade protein.
What is clear is that there are many beverage formats
that dont represent a happy marriage with protein.
Water is one of the best examples of why its important
that the ingredient and the format have some logical
fit in the mind of the consumer. Kelloggs launched
a protein-fortified water as an extension of its very
successful Special K weight management brand, while
Fonterra, the dairy giant, launched a protein and fibre
water as a way of creating a new market for its whey
proteins. Both products bombed. The benefit of protein
is a new one for water and one of the key lessons of the
last 15 years is that consumers are slow to accept new
benefits from established categories. Moreover protein
in water runs against consumer logic about the purity
of water.
Bars and breakfast cereals. Taste and texture
high-protein bars have a well-deserved reputation for
being dry and unappealing is a restraint in these
categories too. Kellogg with its Special K weight
management brand (see Key Trend 5) has made the
most conspicuous efforts in high-protein cereals, Special
K Protein Plus delivering 10g per 30g serve. But the
cereal has stagnated and sales today account for only
5% of total Special K cereal sales in the US. Special K
high protein bars whose portability makes them more
appealing to the gym-goers have performed better, US
sales rising 27% in 2010. Overall, however, protein has
yet to become acceptable in cereals to all but a niche of
consumers.
To address the sarcopenia opportunity, product formats need
to be acceptable to the target consumer. Older consumers are
cookie consumers, not smoothie consumers.
50
At first glance it hardly seems necessary to reinvent
dairy. Dairy products are the largest part of the
functional foods market and have seized the high
ground as the most credible carrier for delivering added
health benefits.
Dairy also benefits from a positive, naturally
healthy halo in the minds of most people in most
dairy-consuming countries. And its health halo is
helping demand grow in countries
with traditionally low per capita dairy
consumption, thanks to the rising
middle classes of Asia and South
America.
Now a number of factors are
converging ranging from dairys
possible role in weight management,
sports recovery, and as a contributor of
a range of increasingly well-understood
key nutrients intrinsically present in
dairy that together are adding to
dairys already positive image.
The most controversial and possibly
far-reaching factor in the reinvention
is the dairy industrys new-found
willingness thanks to developments
in nutrition science to challenge the
long-held belief that saturated dairy fats
are one of the worst things a human
can consume.
SAT FAT FIGHT
A lot of positive research has emerged
recently that is beginning to change
perceptions in the health and science
community about dairy foods and
saturated fats, said Gregory Miller,
executive vice president of research,
regulatory and scientific affairs for
Dairy Management, a not-for-profit marketing arm of
the US dairy industry.
And a growing number of independent experts agree
that dairy particularly saturated fats has been over-
vilified.
Dairy is much better perceived as being positive
in health benefits than 10 or 20 years ago, said
Michael Zemel, a University of Kentucky professor
SUMMARY
Dairy demonization unfounded? New science suggests that dairy particularly saturated fat in dairy has been over-vilified
and it is now set to develop an (even) more favourable health halo. Evidence is emerging that it may even benefit heart health. This
changing perception will gradually lead to more marketing and product development opportunities.
Opportunities in sports recovery drinks: Dairies in the US are making the most of scientific research that suggests chocolate
milk is an ideal sports recovery drink better even than isotonic drinks like Gatorade.
Teen girls bone health. There is increasing evidence about the extent to which the years 9-13 are the most important for bone
formation among girls, creating an opportunity for products which health-conscious mothers can give to their daughters.
The reinvention of dairy
Micro-Trend 2:
Micro-Trends 2011 Dairy
51
Micro-Trends 2011 Dairy
who is unaffiliated with any dairy interests and who
leads research into the nutritional properties of dairy
components. Professor Zemels research aims, in part, to
understand what has made milk such a nutritional staple
over the centuries.
When the low-fat era hit us, dairy became an easy
target, he explains, because many dairy foods have
higher-than-recommended levels of fat. So, well, Dairy
must make you fat. Thats where the counterintuitive
argument comes in.
The swing back toward a more balanced view of
dairys saturated fats has been a long time in the making
and has reached a new pitch in 2010 as author Gary
Taubes book Good Calories, Bad Calories controversial,
well-researched and well-argued has brought to wider
attention the science that challenges the demonisation
of dairy fat. Unsurprisingly, given his message, he was a
keynote speaker at the International Dairy Federations
2010 annual conference.
At the centre of a complex picture is the premise
that dairy fats role in cardiovascular disease is not
what many have assumed it to be. A recent review of
research published in the American Journal of Clinical
Nutrition
1
looked at 17 studies and found no association
between high intakes of either regular-fat or low-
fat dairy products and increased risk of death from
cardiovascular disease. There are even suggestions of a
protective effect because certain nutrients in dairy have
a beneficial impact on blood pressure.
Similar conclusions were drawn in another scientific
review
2
which concluded people who consumed milk
had a low risk of cardiovascular disease compared to
those who drank little or no milk.
Dairy Australia, the trade body for the Australian
dairy industry, is one of the many national dairy
organisations that has picked up this science and begun
to communicate it to cardiologists and other health
professionals with literature (see illustration).
Its a development that will not be of immediate
value to the producers of dairy products there will
continue to be strong resistance from many doctors,
researchers and the media to the idea that dairy fats
could be anything other than bad but if the evidence
continues to build, it represents a chance for dairy to
further enhance its health halo, which in turn may
lead to both more marketing and product development
opportunities.
SPORTS RECOVERY REVIVAL
Another area which is developing is in relation to sports
recovery. Once demonised by dietitians, chocolate milk
drinks are fighting back. In the US, dairies are returning
to marketing messages about the natural nutrient
richness of milk, reformulating their chocolate milk
drinks to be lower in fat and sugar and making the most
of scientific research that suggests chocolate milk is an
ideal sports recovery drink better even than isotonic
drinks like Gatorade.
The evidence is still early stage, but it includes (for
example) a study published in Medicine and Science in
Sports and Exercise which investigated the impact on lean
muscle mass gain and fat loss among female resistance
athletes of drinking a sports beverage and a skimmed
milk drink. Women drinking milk gained more muscle
mass and milk drinkers were the only ones to experience
a reduction in fat mass after training.
Explaining the results, the authors said that the
constituents responsible for the benecial effects on
muscle gain and fat loss are protein, calcium and vitamin
D, which is added to milk in the US. One possible
explanation is that milk contains amino acids that
help trigger muscle growth, but which are absent from
carbohydrate drinks. One is leucine, found in signicant
quantities in dairy protein, that has been shown to
trigger protein synthesis at a molecular level. Similar
results were found in a study of men published in the
American Journal of Clinical Nutrition in 2007.
It hasnt taken the dairy industry long to latch onto
researchers findings that chocolate milk may make an
ideal recovery drink. Shamrock Farms, for example,
one of the largest family-owned dairies in the US, has
responded by launching a product called Rockin Refuel,
a protein-fortified, flavoured recovery milk and one of
several new milk drinks for sports recovery.
In Europe, Swedish dairy Norrmejerier has already
demonstrated the potential of milk as a sports recovery
beverage. Its Gainomax Recovery brand is a high
protein and high carb milk-based beverage intended as
a recovery drink after training. Originally targeted only
at elite sportspeople, Norrmejerier, a traditional dairy
company, successfully widened the consumer target
market and took it into supermarkets. Today Gainomax
Recovery is the market leader in recovery drinks in
Sweden.
BONE HEALTH AND VITAMIN D
The increasingly compelling evidence about the extent
to which the years 9-13 are the most important for
bone formation among girls is also leading public health
experts to propose a significant increase in the RDI
for calcium for this age-group, creating an opportunity
for products which health-conscious mothers can give
to their daughters (see Key Trend 10). Dairy is also
seen as having potential as a carrier for vitamin D (see
Micro-Trend 3).
REFERENCES
1 Soedamah-Muthu et, al. (2010) Milk and dairy
consumption and incidence of cardiovascular diseases
and all-cause mortality: dose-response meta-analysis
of prospective cohort studies, AJCN doi: 10.3945/
ajcn.2010.29866 .
2 Elwood et al (2010) The Consumption of Milk and
Dairy Foods and the Incidence of Vascular Disease and
Diabetes: An Overview of the Evidence Lipids. Apr 16.
52
Theres a rising tide of appreciation globally for the
apparently multiple beneficial effects of vitamin D and
a growing body of good evidence in support of many
of those effects as exemplified by the fact that the
European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has
made vitamin D the subject of one of its all-
too-rare health claim approvals. The suggested
wording is:
Vitamin D contributes to the normal function of the immune
system and healthy inflammatory response.
From a regulator which has rejected 98% of health
claim petitions put before it and which requires
pharmaceutical standards of evidence, thats praise
indeed. As we explain in Key Trend 9, with regulatory
scrutiny of immune health claims now at a high level,
there are very few ingredients that can talk about
immune health benets with security. EFSA has suddenly
propelled vitamin D into that class of ingredients.
Although EFSAs approval is for a dose as low as 50mg,
which should be commonly available from the diet, it
opens the door to new opportunities.
One of the leading American experts on vitamin D
deficiency doesnt foresee US regulators following the
lead of EFSA and approving health claim language for
vitamin D.
I dont see that on the horizon soon, even though
the evidence is strong, Professor Walter Willett, a
renowned nutritionist at the Harvard School of Public
Health, who has spent several years crusading for ways
to increase vitamin D consumption in most diets, told
New Nutrition Business.
Some analysts held out hope that the FDA might
soon consider calling for increased dosages of vitamin D
because of the growing evidence of its benefits. It will
be a test case for the agency in coming months, said
Jack Calfee, resident scholar of the American Enterprise
Institute, in Washington, D.C., and an observer of
federal regulation.
Researchers have posited benefits from vitamin D
in a long list of other areas, including prevention of
cancer, heart disease, seasonal flu, depression, diabetes,
neuromuscular function and osteoarthritis not to
mention its well-established benefits in conjunction with
calcium in supporting bone density. Some researchers
have even suggested a systematic lack of vitamin D in
the modern diet.
Willett long has advocated an urgent need to
increase the so-called Adequate Intake level of vitamin
D to 1,000 international units a day for adults from the
current standard, set by the U.S. governments Institute
of Medicine, of just 200 to 600 IU daily, a figure that
rises with the age of the consumer.
Sunlight helps the body produce vitamin D at the
rate of 15,000 IU or more in as little as 30 minutes of
optimal sun exposure and it was formerly thought that
in most parts of the world (with the exception of the
SUMMARY
Growing scientific support, more evidence of deficiency: Vitamin D is coming into an ever-stronger position in short
supply in the diet and (in the winter months in particular) not available to many people from sunlight. At the same time science
is growing in support of its benefits. Researchers have posited benefits from vitamin D in many areas, including heart disease,
immune function, depression, diabetes, neuromuscular function and osteoarthritis not to mention its well-established benefits in
conjunction with calcium in supporting bone density.
Health claim potential: The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has made vitamin D the subject of one of its all-too-rare
health claim approvals, in relation to immune function one of the areas where regulators demand for substantiation is becoming
more exacting.
Supplement sales soaring: Supplements have become a reliable and safe source of vitamin D augmentation and US sales of
vitamin D supplements rocketed in 2009, rising 82%.
Opportunity in Asia, Middle East, Europe: In particular, theres an opportunity in Europe, the Middle East and Asia to
create products which specifically offer benefits from vitamin D, as evidenced both by insufficiencies and by regulatory approval.
Opportunity in concentrated dose: Innovation in packaging and marketing will be essential to make the most of the
embryonic vitamin D opportunity. A Yakult or Actimel-type daily dose drink product, based on a signicant dose of vitamin D
(perhaps 100% the RDV) as its active ingredient, will be the best route to effective differentiation and better margins. With vitamin
Ds image as the sunshine vitamin it is easier for consumers to accept and relate to its benets giving marketers a head-start.
Vitamin D may yet become a much bigger opportunity than anyone has yet imagined they could be.
The rise of vitamin D
Micro-Trend 3:
Micro-Trends 2011 Vitamin D
53
northernmost latitudes) people got adequate vitamin
D from exposure to the sun. However, the reality now
seems to be that vitamin D status is inuenced by
ethnicity and lifestyle. Researchers have found signicant
deciencies among women who are darker-skinned, or
veiled. And given that today most people work indoors
on computers it isnt surprising that inadequate
vitamin D intake is more widespread than was
once thought even in the south of France, 35% of
women have been found to have lower than adequate
vitamin D status.
Supplements have become a reliable and safe source
of vitamin D augmentation, most of them at the level
of 400 IU. We are making some progress in boosting
Vitamin D consumption in the US, Willett said, in part
because many multi-vitamin producers have increased
the amounts [of Vitamin D] in their products.
In fact, Vitamin D in supplements have
become one of the fastest-growing nutrients on
the market in America. Their popularity was helped
along by the fact that famed TV talk-show host Oprah
Winfrey recently told her viewers that adequate intake
of vitamin D could be as much as five times current
recommended levels.
Also catching the attention of many Americans was
Dr. Timothy Johnson, the ABC TV networks on-air
physician, who mentioned research showing that diet-
induced weight loss increases with higher intake of
calcium and vitamin D.
As a result, US sales of vitamin D supplements
rocketed in 2009, rising 82% to $430 million
(324.5 million), according to Nutrition Business
Journal, making them the fastest-growing category in
the entire US dietary supplement market. The segment
contributed $190 million (143 million) in new sales
dollars and is expected to maintain its robust growth,
as more healthcare practitioners and consumers
understand the need for vitamin D supplementation and
the science supporting its health benefits grows.
Foods naturally rich in vitamin D are scarce. Oily fish
such as mackerel, salmon and sardines top the list and
hence mandatory supplementation of some foods with
vitamin D is common in some countries. In Canada,
Finland and America, for example, all milk has long
been fortified by government mandate, typically with
100 IU per 8oz (250ml) serving.
Lately in the US, there has been a surge of activity
in foods and beverages that have added vitamin D,
however. A recent example is Stur-D, an extension of
the Vitaminwater brand, now owned by Coca-Cola.
Introduced in October 2010, Stur-D is called the very
first enhanced water and juice beverage to include
vitamin D and calcium. Stur-D is flavoured with
passion fruit, citrus and blue agave. Each 250ml serving
contains 10% of the DRV for vitamin D and calcium.
At NNB we dont believe that such products can make
much of a difference to health and such a low dose of
vitamin D is insufficient either to differentiate a product
or substantiate a clear health benefit claim.
For the food industry the door is now open to two
opportunities:
1. Investment behind the growing body of
research that shows enhanced benets from
vitamin D at much higher levels, to enable a better
understanding of what could be claimed and to
generate better substantiation of claims.
2. The creation of branded foods that can
make a claim in relation to calcium and bone
health (see Key Trend 10) or immune function
(and later perhaps other claims that science could
substantiate).
In particular, theres an opportunity in Europe,
the Middle East and Asia to create products which
specically offer benets from vitamin D. Across Asia
and the Middle East, insufciency of vitamin D is a
real issue in China, for example, 80% of teenage girls
have been found to have insufcient vitamin D (Foo et al.
Osteoporos Int 2009;20:417-25).
Whats more, as with many aspects of food and
health, the need for this nutrient increases with age,
presenting opportunities in relation to both women and
the most health-motivated segment of the population,
the over 50s, who are becoming a larger part of the
population everywhere (see Chart 3).
Vitamin D is coming into an ever-stronger
position in short supply in the diet and (in the winter
months in particular) not available to many people from
sunlight. At the same time science is growing in support
of its benets.
The temptation, of course, is for dairy companies
(for example) to fortify their standard milk lines with a
little more vitamin D. The evidence of the last 15 years,
however, is that such an approach will yield no additional
volume and the consumer wont pay any extra, so there
will be no benet to the bottom line.
Innovation in packaging and marketing will be
essential to make the most of the embryonic vitamin D
opportunity. Better by far than a regular product with
vitamin D would be a Yakult or Actimel-type
daily dose drink product, based on a signicant
dose of vitamin D (perhaps 100% of the RDV)
as its active ingredient research puts 10,000
IU a day as the safe upper limit, with new
research indicating it may be even higher.
With vitamin Ds image as the
sunshine vitamin it is easier for
consumers to accept and relate to its
benets than many other food ingredients,
giving marketers a head-start as well as
a basis for communication around the
natural benets of the sunshine vitamin.
With differentiated packaging, a high
and effective dose and good marketing
execution, products high in vitamin
D may yet become a much bigger
opportunity than anyone has yet imagined
they could be.
Micro-Trends 2011 Vitamin D
54
It might seem hard to believe that we can describe a
market with total retail sales of over 1 billion ($1.3
billion) as a Micro-Trend but its important never
to be dazzled by flashy numbers. Data is, after all,
useless without interpretation. That 1 billion is split
between three brands Unilevers Pro.activ, Danones
Danacol and Benecol and across more than 30
countries. Compared to the market for digestive health,
cholesterol-lowering is only one twentieth the size.
Moreover, even at 1 billion and with its recent rapid
growth rates, the sterol-based cholesterol-lowering foods
market is less than 10% the size of what was forecast 10
years ago.
The total is high but the individual brands are all
niche. Its a high-value, low-volume business, with a
product such as Danacol retailing for around 3.50
($4.70) per 4-pack in the leading market, Italy. Thats
equivalent to 9.50 ($12.75) per litre or a 300%
premium over regular yoghurt. Typically for high-value
markets its also a high profit margin business, and thats
what makes it attractive for the three main players.
Its also a Euro-centric market. Cholesterol-lowering
has made little headway in the US which remains a
fraction of the size of Europe, largely because of the
failure of US dairy companies to deliver innovative
products or effective marketing.
Even the broader heart health market merits only
Micro-Trend status. Its often cited as the second-largest
part of the functional foods market after digestive
health, but drill down into the sales of heart-health
products and youll find that the largest percentage is
made up of long-established products that later added
heart health as an all natural and intrinsic benefit.
Although the addition of the heart health message
brings an increase in sales, it may not be very much
or very long-lasting unless the brand scores highly on
convenience and other factors.
Bearing in mind that the potential for growth is
the measure of how we select our trends, growth
opportunities are limited in heart health it is now one
of most common messages in the supermarket.
CEILING IN EUROPE
In Europe the cholesterol-lowering market has been
driven by packaging innovation, specifically the daily
dose format (see Key Trend 7); a heavy marketing
investment and the ageing of Europes population. All
of these factors can be seen at work in Italy, where 20%
of the population is already over the age of 65.
Unsurprisingly, Italy is one of Europes biggest and
most dynamic cholesterol-lowering markets and Danacol
has we estimate almost a third of its sales in Italy
alone, earning Danone more than 80 million ($106
million).
Consumption of cholesterol-lowering products
skews to people aged 55-74 the age at which elevated
cholesterol becomes an issue. Respected consumer
research group Health Focus International describes
people motivated by cholesterol-lowering as among its
healers segment, accounting for at best 9%-12% of
the population, depending on the country.
The cholesterol-lowering market will never attract
truly young consumers. Even reaching down to the
40-45 demographic has proven to be tough. This limits
the scope for further growth in Europe, where we think
the market is reaching the ceiling of its healthy niche.
Growth will be in Asia and South America. Dairy will
remain the dominant format its difficult to formulate
sterols into products such as juice without taste issues so
dairy fat remains the ideal carrier. Non-dairy offerings
will also exist as a niche within a niche Benecol is one
of a number of brands to have tried a soy-based variant,
without much success.
NEW NICHES
Looking beyond sterols and cholesterol-lowering, other
areas of cardiovascular health are the focus for the
creation of new niches. One example is Sirco juice
(based not on sterols but on a tomato extract), another
brand hoping to gain in Europe from the confluence of
regulatory approval its claim is, like those for sterol/
stanol-based products, one of the few signed off by
regulators and an ageing population. Marketed with
a claim that it helps maintain a healthy blood flow
and benefits circulation, Sirco has also found that its
customers are overwhelmingly in their 60s and 70s
and form a loyal hardcore with a high repeat purchase
pattern. Markets like these are potentially high value
niches for companies whose strategies enable them to
play in niches.
SUMMARY
Demographics favourable: Markets for cholesterol lowering foods are much smaller than forecast 10 years ago, but the rapid
ageing of the population (see Chart 3) is now causing increases in sales.
Boost in Europe: In Europe in particular, approval for a cholesterol-lowering health claim, together with an ageing population,
has boosted sales of these foods in Italy, for example, Danones Danacol cholesterol-lowering brand enjoyed a 28.8% increase in
value to August 2009, even while the Italian economy contracted by 6%.
Ageing population, good science lift cholesterol-lowering
Micro-Trend 4:
Micro-Trends 2011 Cholesterol-lowering
55
Comparing the strategies of two very different
companies (on the surface, at least) offers a shorthand
way of understanding all the key trends that drive the
childrens nutrition market. One is global dairy giant
Danone, the other entrepreneurial kids food start-up
Ellas Kitchen. Although different in size and focus,
they are both pursuing very similar strategies, based
on similar insights about what motivates mothers and
children under the age of 10.
Danone: in 2010 it dropped omega-3 from its kids
yoghurt brand in Canada, after four years of trying
to make the concept work beyond an ultra-niche. It is
instead focusing on a natural and free-from-whats-
bad message, emphasizing that its Danimals and Dan-
o-nino brands contain no artificial colours, flavours or
high-fructose corn syrup.
We talked to moms about why they had been
turning away from kids yoghurt products and what
they were looking for, and we found that they wanted
healthier products that didnt have what they called
negative or bad ingredients, said a Danone
spokesperson.
Danone also dropped an immune-boosting probiotic
from one of its product to focus instead on making
something kids want to eat meaning products that
perform on taste and kid-appeal adding that mothers
believed that no matter what health benefits you might
add they know that, overall, a product cant be healthy
for their kids unless theyre willing to eat it.
The company is also focused on packaging
innovation, with the introduction of squeezable tubes
of yoghurt so children can enjoy yoghurt without a
spoon. These followed the successful launch in 2009 of a
crushable cup a yoghurt pot which gradually collapses,
allowing kids to eat yoghurt like ice-cream from a cone.
The crush-cup already accounts for 20% of Danones
US kids product sales.
Ellas Kitchen. UK-based startup company Ellas
Kitchen is the fastest-growing food brand in the UK.
With its products in mainstream supermarkets in
Scandinavia, too, the company hit total retail sales of
around 25 million ($37.6 million/27.8 million) in
2009, its third year in business, and is thought to have
passed 50 million ($79 million/59 million) in 2010.
The companys approach is simple: all products
SUMMARY
The trends in the kids market are now firmly established and show little sign of change anytime soon:
1. Natural and free-from bad ingredients. Natural is nothing to do with science and everything to do with consumer beliefs.
2. Convenient minimum preparation required by the parent.
3. My child will eat it beat the picky eater
4. Tastes so good the child will ask for it again and again. Make parents lives easier design your product so that children want to
eat it and will ask for it. Pay attention to taste first so healthy is not a chore.
5. Innovative packaging
The kids market where natural and convenient beat fortification
Micro-Trend 5:
Micro-Trends 2011 The kids market
No articial colours or avourscovers what mom wants and
what she wants to give her child. As a minimum you have to
deliver that. Free-from whats bad is the basic standard for any
kids food to be credible.
56
Micro-Trends 2011 The kids market
are organic and 100% natural without any artificial
additives or preservatives.
At the core of Ellas success is a range of flexible
pouch-packed products designed for children aged three
to 10. Suitable for ambient storage, they are designed
for consumption on-the-go as well as in the home; no
spoon is needed because they can be squeezed straight
into the childs mouth, and a resealable screw-on lid
means they can be re-used later.
From concept to launch, product development
involves consulting with children, to be sure that kids
find them fun and tasty. According to founder Paul
Lindley: A core part of our brand and business is
involving children in our product development and
marketing, in a way that extends all the way down
to babies. It might be as simple as reaching out and
grabbing a colourful pack, or playing with the tactile
nature of our pouches. For the slightly older babies
it might be getting involved in the food process
squeezing a sauce onto pasta or feeding themselves with
pouches. We see children as decision makers in terms of
purchasing and consumption and weve built our brand
around that.
Ellas Kitchen bucked the recent trend of sales of
organic products suffering in the recession. Lindley says
this is because people feel differently about childrens
food than they do about their own.
Making it more likely that a child will choose to
consume their products is key to Danone and Ellas
strategies, for the simple reason that no matter how
healthy, convenient, or low-priced your product is, no
matter how high-quality the ingredients or how free-
from and no added bad things its credentials are, if
a mother has to force her children to eat it, its just not
worth the effort. Making a health-conscious mothers
life easier is one of the most persuasive ways of earning
her loyalty and repeat purchase according to an
ACNielsen study, approximately 34% of mothers think
that their children are picky about food.
Five years ago, there were a host of companies
hoping that adding ingredients with health benefits
would enable them to conquer the kids food category.
The brain health benefits of omega-3, for example, were
held up by ingredient suppliers as an opportunity to
create a point of difference that every mother would
respond to. But now we know that natural beats omega-
3 every time.
US branding agency Just Kids, which specializes in
products for children, describes a fortification-focused
strategy as Sin number six of the many things that
companies can do wrong in trying to develop a kid-
specific food: All too often, added ingredients only add
clutter and confusion to natural productsand seldom
add sales revenues. Be careful and thoughtful, always
looking through to the consumer benefit, before fooling
with Mother Nature.
DAIRYS ADVANTAGES
One of the few categories that can fortify and still be
natural is dairy. One of dairys big advantages is the
benefit of calcium, and mothers accept added calcium
in dairy foods because its perceived as a concentrated
dose of something they expect to be naturally present
anyway. Hence Danone is strongly promoting the
high calcium content (as well as the convenience
advantages) of its Dan-o-nino brands in its current
US market strategy: Mothers are very interested
because theyre focused on the calcium content of the
product two times that of milk and their childrens
need for calcium during this time frame.They also
like the protein [three grams of protein 19% of the
recommended daily value] and Vitamin D content.
Theres no other snack out there that fulfills this need.
Even in Canada, where omega-3 products are allowed to carry
a health claim, omega-3 fortied dairy products have failed to
make any headway. Danone recently dropped omega-3 from the
formulation of its leading kids dairy brand.
Innovative packaging and good avours, coupled with a message
that its products are organic and 100% natural, without any
artical additives, has propelled Ellas Kitchen to $79 million in
sales, just ve years after the brand was rst launched.
57
The story of probiotics has been dominated by dairy
and digestive health (Key Trend 1) and dairy-
probiotic-digestive health has become a big success story.
However, as Key Trend 1 shows, theres usually only
room in each market for one or two significant probiotic
dairy brands; meaningful growth is only possible for
brands that are already established, with little room for
new entrants. This market is in most countries a done
deal and so anyone looking to do something with
probiotics needs to be looking at entirely new areas.
Smaller but still important is the dairy-probiotic-
immunity combination (see Key Trend 9), where
Danones Actimel brand has carved a position as the
worlds biggest immunity brand and Valios LGG strain
of immune-boosting bacteria has created a global
position and is used in 32 brands around the world for
its immunity benefits.
The biggest growth opportunity for probiotics for
digestion and immunity lies in juice drinks, where there
are already very successful brands for digestion (ProViva,
see Key Trend 1) and for immunity (Gefilus, see Key
Trend 9), both of which have achieved significant sales
over the last 15 years and both of which are beginning
their global roll-out. Nevertheless, based on the
evidence, we believe that probiotic juice will never be as
big as probiotic dairy perhaps only a tenth of the size.
When you step beyond the big niche of probiotic
juice, the opportunities for probiotics in foods and
beverages becomes a series of ever-smaller niches and
many might be better-served by probiotics supplements.
One example of the difficulty perhaps impossibility
of taking probiotics beyond dairy and juice is the
recent craze for adding probiotics to solid food forms,
such as bars, breakfast cereals, pizza and other formats.
Particularly prevalent in the US, it is one of the biggest
strategy mis-steps of recent times and, as we have said
before, was never more than a small niche opportunity.
The idea of probiotic breakfast cereals or bread runs
counter to consumer logic, and probiotic chocolate runs
even more strongly against the indulgent, health-from-
natural-antioxidants positioning that chocolate enjoys in
the mind of the consumer.
Probiotic food forms have been attempted time
and again mostly in Europe and almost all have
disappeared. The development of the US market has
followed the same arc.
Dry-form probiotic foods will, of course, find some
devoted fans in todays increasingly fragmented market
for health, everything does but they will be marginal
brands.
GUM HOLDS PROMISE
After juice, the next biggest format for probiotics will
be gum, for oral health. The gum category owns the
benefit of oral health stronger teeth, whiter teeth,
breath-freshening, caries-fighting are all messages that
consumers associate with gum. Probiotics have been
developed which have benefits in areas such as throat
protection and fighting oral bacteria and for these gum
is a logical carrier.
One example is from a company called BLIS
Technologies, which markets an anti-sore throat
probiotic called Throat Guard, based on its K12
Streptococcus salivarius probiotic, as well as a strain called
M18, which is said to help prevent tooth decay. M18
can be found in childrens chewable dental supplements,
such as Animal Parade Tooth Fairy from Natures Plus.
Gum also has the advantage of being able to deliver
a concentrated dose (see Key Trend 7) of the active
probiotic without taste issues. This may also make gum
a credible carrier for probiotics with immune benets
(Key Trend 9). Gum with probiotics could reach $100
million (75 million) in retail sales (in the US and Europe
together) within the next ve years but not more than
that.
A FUTURE OF SMALL NICHES
The future of probiotics is as a series of condition-
specific niches, some served better by supplements than
foods. A few ultra-niche dairy or juice drinks will be
the delivery mechanisms for medicinal benefits such as
fighting childhood eczema, marketed to very targeted
and specific groups.
SUMMARY
New formats: Besides their obvious application in products for digestive health and immunity, which we have covered elsewhere
in this report, probiotics have promise in a number of embryonic new formats, targeting new consumer groups and new conditions,
such as dental health. However, many of these areas will be small, condition-specic niches.
Gum a credible carrier: probiotic gums for oral health have promise and could reach $100 million in the next ve years.
Probiotics new niches
Micro-Trend 6:
Micro-Trends 2011 Probiotics new niches
58
According to Health Focus International research in
32 countries, stress has become the number one health
concern which people say affects them personally
with sleep problems a close second (see Chart 1). If
sleeplessness and stress are such big consumer concerns,
why then isnt there a huge market established for
products that address them, as there is for the other top
consumer concerns, digestive health and energy?
The reason is that ingredient technology is not yet
at the point where ingredients can be formulated into
products which are effective (feel the benefit Key
Trend 3 is an essential element of strategy in this
market), safe, produce good-tasting products and deliver
claims that will pass regulatory scrutiny. Nor has anyone
yet figured out a winning strategy and winning product
format. Solving these two challenges is key to creating
new categories as Red Bull did for energy drinks,
5-Hour Energy did for energy shots (see Key Trend
2), Danone Activia and Fiber One have done for
digestive health (see Key Trend 1), and Special K
has done in weight management (see Key Trend 5).
Many companies are developing toeholds in the
area:
Nestl in 2006 announced a $4 million (2.7
million) a year, five-year investment into researching
the relationship between nutrition and the brain.
Unilevers Lipton tea brand was the first, and
so far the only, brand to communicate to consumers
that tea has an intrinsic effect that helps you feel relaxed
but alert. Japanese consumers were first to learn about
Liptons benefits in 2005 when Unilever began using a
slogan that translates as Activates your brain & turns on the
light bulb in your head. Since then the company has rolled
out communications about the mental benefits of its tea
to Australia and elsewhere. Communications concentrate
on one intrinsic component of tea, an amino acid called
L-theanine, found naturally only in green, black and
oolong teas. Clinical studies have established that 50mg
of L-theanine (found in two to three cups of tea) causes
alpha brain waves associated with relaxation to
increase in frequency and beta brain waves associated
with tension, anxiety, and irritation to decrease.
Confectionery giant Ezaki Glico, in Japan, has had
perhaps the single biggest success with its stress-reducing
Mental Balance Chocolate GABA, a chocolate product
which delivers a much larger dose of
gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)
the chief inhibitory neurotransmitter
in the central nervous system than
most chocolate (chocolate naturally
has a GABA content). First-year sales
(in 2005) reached $50 million (34
million), exceeding expectations, but
the brand has since plateaued.
These companies aside, at the
moment the area is largely the
SUMMARY
Sleeplessness and stress are major problems for consumers. Theres a consumer need for products that help with stress
and sleeplessness. However, the market for such products remains a Micro-Trend, its development hampered by the perceived lack
of ingredients that can deliver an effective benefit and also meet the normal criteria for inclusion in a food or beverage, coupled
with uncertainty about how to communicate a sleep or stress benefit and not fall foul of health claim regulators.
The realm of start-ups: In the US, relaxation drinks offering either stress or sleep benefits have become a legitimate niche of
some 350 start-up brands, worth about $10 million (7.9 million).
A beverage opportunity: The category is currently dominated by beverages, since they offer more scope in terms of ingredients
formulation, flavour and convenience. Given how beverages also dominate energy its likely that they will also be the major part of
any future stress/relaxation market.
A dairy opportunity: In many countries a milky drink at bedtime is believed to aid sleep, and already a few dairy companies
have tried to capitalize on this, marketing milks naturally high in melatonin (a natural aid to sleep that is widely used in OTC and
supplements). Consumer reception has been good but most have disappeared as the result of regulatory challenges.
Sleep or just relaxation? No company has yet established a winning strategy for relaxation beverages for formulation,
positioning, packaging, distribution or marketing. Opinion is divided over whether these products should promote sleep or just
relaxation, a decision that would determine much about brand strategy.
Stress, relaxation and sleep
Micro-Trend 7:
Micro-Trends 2011 Stress, relaxation and sleep
59
preserve of entrepreneurial start-ups, most of which
are solely focused on marketing foods with either stress
or sleep benefits. In the US, relaxation drinks have
become a legitimate niche with some 350 start-up
brands contending for space.
America is becoming more stressed, so everyone is
trying to relax with prescription drugs and other things,
said Peter Bianchi, CEO of Innovative Beverage Group
Holdings, whose Drank brand posted $6.5 million (5
million) in sales last year and, he said, holds the largest
share of the US market for relaxation drinks. That
suggests relaxation drinks already were at least a $10
million (7.9 million) segment in the American market in
2009, after just a few years.
Fortitech, which develops custom nutrient premixes
for foods and beverages, is seeing strong interest from
our clients for blends targeting the relaxation segment,
said Richard Schleif, director of marketing, which is
typically an indication that we will see a spike in
commercial products in the near future.
But relaxation drinks have attracted skeptics: The
problem with these drinks at this early point in their
evolution is that the consumer hasnt yet taken
to the concept and thats much more important
than what these things taste like, how theyre packaged
or what theyre named, argued Tom Pirko, president
of Bevmark, a California-based beverage-industry
consulting firm. Consumers know and understand that
they want to be able to lift off with energy drinks, but
they havent yet moved over to figure out if relaxation
drinks are the yin to that yang, if the other side of that
coin is calming down.
No company has yet established a winning template
for cracking relaxation drinks. Unlike energy shots,
theres no unassailable strategy yet in relaxation
beverages for formulation, positioning, packaging,
distribution or marketing.
And Pirko said the giants wont go into a category
until they really see sales and space being taken that they
believe they should rightfully own. This category hasnt
proven itself yet. Not yet and maybe never.
Heres how some of the players are approaching these
crucial criteria:
Exactly how relaxed do people want to be? So
far, the biggest divide in this segment is over whether
to promote sleep or just relaxation. A relaxation drink
might include kava, valerian root and other herbal
ingredients, while melatonin, a hormone that induces
sleep, is found in both kinds of drinks. This decision
determines much about the brands formulation,
positioning and other factors.
Mary Janes Relaxing Soda chose to focus on
reducing anxieties and general stress levels
in part because, as founder Matt Moody explained,
of the emergence of strong demand for natural
stress remedies including kava and passionflower. I
didnt want to produce a sleep aid; there are plenty of
things people can take for that, said the CEO of The
Relaxing Co. I wanted something that would be a
quick fix for someone during the day who faces a speech
or some other anxious situation, but yet wouldnt be a
shot of whisky or a beer.
Mini Chill relaxation shots focus on promoting
stress reduction, not sleep. The active ingredient is
500mg of valerian root per 2oz (59ml) shot. Competing
beverages that include melatonin just leave consumers
feeling disoriented and tipsy; thats a fundamental
error, said Steve Panzella, founder and president of
Stevenson Products, producer of Mini Chill.
Dream Water is aimed directly at sleep. In
blueberry and pomegranate flavour, it contains
melatonin, GABA and 5TH and promises sleep
usually within 40 minutes. At least 25% of Americans
have some kind of sleep problem, not a relaxation
problem, said David Lekach, CEO of Dream Products.
Vacation in a Bottle, with its beach-holiday imagery, encourages
users to Take time to unwind from the daily grind and pour
yourself a vacation that never has to end.
Micro-Trends 2011 Stress, relaxation and sleep
Danone has already tried a stress-relieving dairy drink in
selected European markets; called Zen, its benefits were said
to be based on its added magnesium. Though Zen failed to
meet sales expectations and was withdrawn, it signals that the
mood food area is being looked at seriously and that figuring
out how to succeed will not be easy.
60
Every year producers of omega-3 oils from
marine and from algal sources hope for their big
break-through. And every year produces another
disappointment; 2010 was no exception, and until
theres a major re-think among ingredient suppliers
about their technology and strategy, nor will 2011 be
any better, nor any following year.
Omega-3 has become a major success in some areas:
around the world the omega-3 dietary supplement
business (pills and capsules) is thriving, with supplement
sales up 10% in the US in 2010, to over $1 billion
(750 million), making omega-3 the biggest dietary
supplement category. Omega-3 has also become a
standard ingredient in infant formula.
But in the food and beverage market, in Europe, the
US, Japan and most of Asia, sales of omega-3 fortified
products continue to underperform with all bar a couple
of brands selling in niche quantities. To take two
examples from 2010:
Bread. In January 2010 Sara Lee, one of Americas
best-known fresh bread brands, with a 9% market share,
introduced a new variant of its Soft & Smooth bread
line called Soft & Smooth Plus; bread made with DHA
omega-3 and billed as the first nationally distributed
bread of its type.
The aim was to provide mothers with a simple means
to ensure their children, especially picky eaters who
turn up their nose at one of the most common sources
[of DHA] fish, get the benefits of DHA.
Soft & Smooth Plus is available in three varieties:
100% Whole Wheat
Made with Whole Grain White
Mini-buns
Plus contains 12mg of DHA per two-
slice serving, which is 10% percent of the
Institute of Medicines suggested daily
amount for kids aged 1-13. The DHA is
from Martek, which extracts it from algae.
Hailed as a major development, Plus has
disappointed, producing, according to IRI
supermarket scanning data, total sales of
just $7.5 million (5.6 million) in 2010 and
doing nothing to arrest the 16% decline in
sales that Soft & Smooth experienced in
the year to October 3
rd
2010, to a total of
$110 million (82 million), following a 15%
decline the previous year. Sara Lee seems to
have used omega-3 as many companies do,
as part of a last-ditch functional food make-
over intended to rescue a struggling brand.
SUMMARY
Trapped in an ultra-niche: Until recently hyped as having mass-market potential, in reality omega-3 remains in its infancy.
Low dosage, poor taste: omega-3 products failure to deliver more than small doses in foods and beverages and its often poor
taste in many foods means that foods and beverages are a poor second choice to supplements and to fish for consumers.
No point of difference: the brain and eye development benefits for children are now well-proven to be a motivation to only an
ultra-niche of the most health-conscious mothers, while the heart health benefits give it no point of difference tens of products from
oats to pomegranate juice today offer heart health.
Technological change needed to realize food and beverage potential: The acceleration of the omega-3 trend will come
only when companies work out how to deliver an effective daily dose of omega-3s in a convenient, single-serve drink (Key Trend 7)
with a good taste.
Health claims no help: Getting health claims approvals for omega-3 will make no difference to this ingredients fortunes until
this technical challenge is overcome. The limited value of health claims, given the disadvantages listed above, has already been
demonstrated in Canada and elsewhere.
RDI blind alley: Nor will getting an RDI boost consumers consumption of omega-3 (it certainly hasnt helped in Japan). Looking
at the lessons from nutrition history, its clear that 60 years of an RDI for calcium hasnt overcome the problem of inadequate
calcium intakes in many countries, particularly among young women.
Realistic strategy needed: The omega-3 industry needs to either a) focus on what it does well (supplements and formula) and
forget food and beverage or b) accept the realities of the food and beverage market and overhaul its technology and strategy.
Omega-3 needs better technology to achieve break out
Micro-Trend 8:
Micro-Trends 2011 Omega-3
61
Dairy. Suppliers of omega-3 hoped the initial
success of an omega-3 fortified product in Canada,
Danones Danino, would lead to a worldwide adoption
of the nutrient in Danones kids brands. But it was not
to be. Even with the benefit of a specific health claim,
omega-3 turned out to have only niche appeal.
Danone introduced Danino, a spoonable yogurt,
in 2006 with a health benefit based on assisting brain
development of young children. Danino contained
20mg of DHA omega-3s from fish oil and 35mg of
total omega-3s. Danone made much of the fact that
HealthCanada, allowed the brand to carry a specific
health claim for DHA and brain development.
But, said a Danone Canada spokesperson, in 2010
the company still had a challenge in Canada in getting
parents to purchase Danino for their kids. Among
parents of three to six-year-olds, only 20% actually buy
childrens yogurt for their kids.
Unsurprisingly, when Danone overhauled its kids
dairy strategy in the US and Canada in 2010, it focused
on packaging innovations and on mothers most-wanted
benefits products that are about bone health and are
free from HFCS and artificial colours and flavours.
Omega-3 formed no part of the strategy overhaul and
has now been dropped from Daninos recipe in Canada.
A spokesperson explained: If you have a benefit thats
not motivating [consumers], then theres no added value
to including it.
STRATEGY RE-THINK
The signs are that, with one or two exceptions, if we
take Einsteins definition of madness as doing the
same thing over and over again and expecting to get
a different result, then many omega-3 oil suppliers are
locked into a mad repetitive pattern that goes something
like this:
1. Try to get omega-3 into as many products in as
many different product formats as possible.
2. Hope that the next launch will lead to the long-
awaited big breakthrough for omega-3 in food.
3. When the newest omega-3 product sells at niche
levels or is withdrawn after marketers find that
omega-3 makes no difference to consumers (as
the marketers of Europes biggest omega-3 dairy
brand said as they dropped omega-3 from their
product formulation), go back to step 1 above
and repeat the process.
BETTER TASTE AND DOSE
THE WAY AHEAD
One of the key lessons of the last 15 years is that theres
a significant niche of health-conscious consumers
who want an effective dose of whatever nutrient it is
they need, delivered in a convenient and good-tasting
beverage form. This can be seen in calcium and vitamin
D for bone health (Key Trend 10), glucosamine for joint
health (Key Trend 10), fibre or probiotics for digestive
health (Key Trend 1) and many, many others.
As yet, no omega-3 product can give you such a quick
fix of an effective daily dose. In fact omega-3 fortified
foods deliver only modest dosages per serve. More than
100mg and many products start to have an off-taste
yet the effective daily dose according to international
guidelines is around 500mg. To build their market, the
omega-3 companies will need to crack this problem and
find a way to create (good-tasting) Yakult-type products
that give you your effective daily dose in one convenient,
single-serve beverage.
Until then, omega-3s are disadvantaged compared
to the increasing number of products, from oats to
pomegranate juice, that communicate heart health
benefits and are available in supermarkets in good-
tasting and convenient formats.
RDIs NOT THE ANSWER
Even securing national RDAs for omega-3 will not
change the situation. Note that:
There is an RDI for calcium and has been for
decades, but in most countries most people
particularly women and young girls still dont
meet their RDIs, 70 years after calcium was
recognised as an essential nutrient.
Japan has an RDA for omega-3 fatty acids it
is recommended that 2,600mg of DHA be
consumed daily but even so its had limited
effect on the omega-3 market. Japanese people
prefer to get their omega-3 from fish or from
supplements and Westerners are showing every
sign of going the same way.
As we point out in Key Trend 6, consumers desire
for health benefits that are intrinsic and natural to a
food is one of the most powerful trends. Omega-3 fish
oil has its natural home in fish-based products. Why
then would anyone want to add fish oil to yoghurt? In
fact, as Key Trend 6 shows, the fish processing industry
is starting to do an ever-better job of positioning fish as
the best and most natural source of omega-3.
Until technological and marketing
breakthroughs can be made, omega-3 will stay
firmly locked into its current niche.
Micro-Trends 2011 Omega-3
62
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64
Fiber for digestive health
Opportunities, strategies and case studies
October 2010
PPT 230 slides, product illustrations, charts and tables of data
PDF 80 pages, product illustrations, charts and tables of data
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A 20% DISCOUNT
Products that make a virtue of their ber
content are being launched in ever-
increasing numbers. Branded food and
food ingredient companies are nding that
when it comes to ber, the most effective
avenue of appeal to consumers is the
digestive benets of ber intake.
However, knowing how many products
have been launched is much less useful
information than understanding which
strategies companies have adopted, which
ones work and which dont, and why.
This report will enable any company thinking about how to market products with ber as a
benet to:
Decide on the most appropriate strategy in your category for example, will you go for a
ber makeover or become an expert brand?
Be clear what the risks are and how to reduce them.
Identify how to increase your chances of success and generate higher sales volume and/or
higher prot margins.
A concise 55-page description of the strategies and trends relating to products with ber for digestive
health sets out:
the core consumer group for ber for digestive health and their motivations
bers ve advantages as an ingredient, including its relative advantages in regulatory terms
the ve steps to creating a successful brand with ber for digestive health as its core benet
successful ber-digestive health strategy in breakfast cereals, bakery and dairy as well as in new
high-opportunity segments such as beverages and meals
which marketing techniques are most effective and why
Fibre for Digestive Health
26
CHART 6: NEW FIBER-DIGESTIVE HEALTH CONCEPTS MUST BEGIN IN THE LIFESTYLE SEGMENT
Fiber and juice is a new concept in the mind of the consumer and hence new product formats such as this
must begin by targeting the lifestyle consumer.
This is particularly true for products using a new piece of terminology like prebiotic in connection with fiber.
The word prebiotic has almost zero mass-market awareness mass-market consumers in many countries dont
even understand the long-used word probiotic so such a new and similar word will be confusing.

The lifestyle consumer, however, will be an early-adopter of prebiotic products. They will also be willing to pay a
premium price which will be necessary if you are to be able to invest in the consumer education and long-term
brand-building effort needed to grow a prebiotic brand. But with such a long-term investment, prebiotic products
could eventually graduate to the mass market.
The technology consumer is also a good place to start with new concepts and it is this group that finds
Digestive 1st, based on the innovative Barleymax fiber concept (see Case Study 5), appealing. Its offer of a
clinically proven health benefit thats superior to any other product is exactly what these consumers are looking
for.
Sor.: Mllotio C Jootro, T/ Fc C Holt/ Mor/tio Hooco/
Health Focus consumer segmentations and percentage of consumers in each segment
Technology
Consumers Lifestyle
Consumers Mass-market
Consumers
Solid line = sales
volumes
Sales
TIME MEDICAL
HEALERS
9% 9% 19% 44% 12% 6%
DISCIPLES INVESTORS MANAGERS STRUGGLERS UNMOTIVATEDS
----- EARLY ADOPTERS ----- EARLY MAJORITY ----- LATE MAJORITY ----- LAGGARDS
While some brands with soft health benefits saw sales stagnate or fall, cholesterol-lowering brands such as Benecol and Danacol saw sales grow by as much as 20% per annum, despite selling at super-premium prices.
2. Lifestyle consumers
Also an early adopter market, these people have no specific medical need but they aim to have a lifestyle of health and wellness. This group has a strong skew towards more
affluent, better-educated, 40+ consumers. They often have high disposable income and they are a worthwhile market to develop. Driven by choice rather than need, they are willing to pay a premium for any brand that supports their wellness lifestyle. They buy soy milk, blueberries, pomegranate juice, probiotic yoghurt and in fact they are the key driver of the business of food and health and account for 20%-25% of the population in most countries.
They are not afraid to experiment and take
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Advantage 1: Better technology,
better taste
Its easier to formulate fibre into foods and
beverages and as a result of advances in
technology, high-fibre foods taste better
than ever before, with none of the notes of
cardboard that marked out high-fibre foods in
the past.
For consumers, high-fiber products have
long been synonymous with dry, unappealing
taste and texture and cardboard-like products.
If fiber-fortified foods have failed to build in
popularity in the past, the taste and texture
3. Fibers five advantages
VOICEOVER
Customer: Theres no fiber in this.
Manager: Fiber One Honey Clusters cereal? Thats really good.
Customer: It tastes good, theres no fiber.
Manager: Its actually got about half a days worth of fiber in it.
Assistant: Sir, right there, right on the box.
Customer pours cereal into a bowl.
Manager: Honey, touch of brown sugar, crunchy clusters
Customer: Right. Any twigs?
Manager: Twigs no. Delicious? Yes.
Customer: Rightso. Wheres the fiber?
Assistant: Maybe its hiding in the honey clusters?
Voiceover: Rethink fiber, with Fiber One.
FIBER ONE ADVERTISING EMPHASISES GOOD TASTE
Advertising addresses consumers concerns that fiber products have traditionally had a bad taste.
w.new-nutri
Fibre for Digestive H
ardboard that mar
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For consumers, h
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fiber-fortified foo
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this trend being continuous in women and
more marked in men older than 60 years9.
For example, a study (Chiarelli et al)
showed constipation prevalence among 1823
years olds was 14.1%, rising to 26.6% among
4550-year-olds.
Over half of people over the age 70 live
with a bowel problem such as infrequency or
straining as an everyday experience.
US. Constipation is the most common
digestive complaint in the United States.
Around 15% of American adults report
chronic constipation. A further 50% of the
American population will experience an
episode of constipation every year.
To date, Americans have tended to treat
digestive problems with drugs such as
Nexium, which is worth approximately $4.4
billion (2.9 billion) in sales, and Prevacid,
which is worth approximately $3.8 billion
(2.5 billion) or OTC remedies such as
Tums. However, these all have long-term
effects and tackle symptoms but do not
address the underlying causes of a lack of
fibre and of an unbalanced gut. In a lot of
cases pharmaceuticals may not be necessary
since many digestive problems originate from
lifestyle issues such as poor diet and lack of
exercise.
EUROPE. In the general population of
Europe the mean value of the reported
constipation rates is 17.1% and the median
value 16.6%.
NEWNUTRITION BUSINE
CHART 3: AGEING POPULATIONS DRIVE DIGESTIVE HEALTH MARKET GROWTH IN ASIA AS WELL AS
EUROPE AND THE US
The core consumer for health is aged 40-60 (esp 50+). They have high disposable income and when it comes to
health, they are not price-sensitive provided a product delivers a benefit that they see as relevant and credible.
Ageing populations = continuing growth for products with health benefits.
INTESTINAL HEALTH FACTS
A normal stool weight in Western societies is
50-200g in countries where the diet is high
in fibre the average is 500g. Some vegetarians
in the West have stools up to 300g a day.
In the UK gastrointestinal disorders are
responsible for 1 in 10 deaths.
Over 17 million working days are lost in the
UK each year through intestinal disorders.
1 in 14 physician consultations are for
indigestion and 1 in 14 for constipation.
1 in 6 hospital admissions is related to a
gastro-intestinal disorder.
EWNUTR
Percentage of population aged 50 and above
www.new-nut 10
this trend being continuous in women and
more marked in men older than 60 years9.
For example, a study (Chiarelli et al)
showed constipation prevalence among 1823
years olds was 14.1%, rising to 26.6% among
4550-year-olds.
Over half of people over the age 70 live
with a bowel problem such as infrequency or
straining as an everyday experience.
US. Constipation is the most common
digestive complaint in the United States.
Around 15% of American adults report
chronic constipation. A further 50% of the
American population will experience an
episode of constipation every year.
To date, Americans have tended to treat
digestive problems with drugs such as
Nexium, which is worth approximately $4.4
billion (2.9 billion) in sales, and Prevacid,
which is worth approximately $3.8 billion
(2.5 billion) or OTC remedies such as
Tums. However, these all have long-term
effects and tackle symptoms but do not
address the underlying
fibre and of an unbala
cases pharmaceuticals
since many digestive p
lifestyle issues such as
exercise.
EUROPE. In the ge
Europe the mean val
constipation rates is 1
value 16.6%.
CHART 3: AGEING POPULATIONS DRIVE DIGESTIVE HEALTH MARKET GROWTH IN ASI
EUROPE AND THE US
The core consumer for health is aged 40-60 (esp 50+). They have high disposable income
health, they are not price-sensitive provided a product delivers a benefit that they see as
Ageing populations = continuing growth for products with health benefits.
INTESTINAL HEAL
A normal stool we
50-200g in coun
in fibre the averag
in the West have s
In the UK gastroin
responsible for 1
Over 17 million w
UK each year thr
1 in 14 physician
indigestion and 1
1 in 6 hospital ad
gastro-intestinal
Percentage of population aged 50 and above
Published by
Report
Fiber for
digestive
health
Opportunities, strategies
and case studies
65
Smart start-up strategy in
healthy food and beverage
28 key case studies
November 2010
PDF 162 pages, product illustrations, charts and tables of data
Ordering is easysee inside back cover or visit www.new-nutrition.com
PRICE FOR PDF $395/300/255/C$395/A$420/NZ$530/JPY33,000
Taking together the strategy section and the insights from entrepreneurs this report enables you to
maximize your chances of success by:

Making a realistic appraisal o your potential market.
0etting a realistic view o how long it will take you to go rom start-up to success.
0etting a clear view about how best to identiy and target the right consumer group or your product.
Learning about appropriate marketing guerilla tactics and best practices that you can use in your own
start-up.
Using all this inormation to work out how much capital you will need to ulll your ambition.
0ur case studies cover diverse areas including:
This report is written in our trademark opinionated, data-rich style to provide executives in marketing and
technical roles with real-world insights that can be applied in any setting.
Smart start-up strategy
Heavy use of social media, provocative marketing messages, campaigning style and intense cultivation of a heavy dose of attitude and cool are getting the start- up Wat-aah! kids water brand attention and growing its sales and distribution. Launched in 2008, Wat-aah! describes itself as the first functional bottled water for kids without sugar, colouring or calories that tastes great, is legitimately healthy, and genuinely cool.
Wat-aah! was founded by three New York- based advertising and media executives, all of them women, who financed the initial stage, then turned to friends and family and now are said to have won backing from an unidentified European investor.
What is notable is that the products themselves have little or no point of difference
from many others already available. Instead the company focuses on carving out its point of difference by building an independent and quirky brand identity, using its considerable marketing skills and its anti-big brand campaigning style.
The soda bubble is bust. Kids know it, their moms know it, but so do the soda manufacturers, said Wat-aah!s CEO and founder Rose Cameron in a press statement. Thats why they have launched an overwhelming number of so-called healthy alternatives, such as juice-based drinks or enhanced water beverages. But the truth is that these healthy alternatives often have as much (and sometimes more) sugar than the sodas they are meant to replace. Cameron continued: Water is the true alternative to soda, but up until now kids have
Case study 6: Wat-aah creating an urban
lifestyle brand with social media
54
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for many companies distribution means
the supermarket channel a channel whose
constraints are such that many innovations
never see the light of day.
Supermarket chains margin targets, their
control over pricing, their desire for products
to be successful within eight weeks or they
are kicked off the shelf, the fact that retailers
arent willing to give more shelf space to
existing categories and that for a new product
to go on the shelf another one usually has to
come out these are just a few of the factors
in supermarket retailing that mean that many
innovations never make it out of the ideation
stage, and many that do dont last long in the
warzone of the supermarket.
In large part the problem is because in
many countries perhaps most there is an
ever-greater concentration of power among
a shrinking number of grocery retailers. Its
a trend thats well-advanced in most markets
and in some has already reached its logical
conclusion in Australia, for example, 90%
of the grocery market is controlled by just two
supermarket chains.
As a start-up company you have two
choices. You can either accept the status
quo and live with the stranglehold of the
supermarket chains who may not give you
any space at all and if they do will be looking
for you to be as successful as a mass-market
brand in a matter of weeks or you can think
how to get round it.
Even a huge company like Danone is
clearly a company that is thinking outside
the box: the summer of 2010 saw the
opening of two Yoghourteras Danone at
Madrids Barajas international airport.
In a joint venture with Areas the leading
Spanish foodservice company which runs
the services at Barajas Danone has opened
two 48 square metre branded retail outlets at
Barajas offering yoghurt and ice-cream that
can be garnished with cereals, fruits or other
more indulgent ingredients, such as chocolate
sauce and candy.
For those of you who speak Spanish (and
the pictures tell the story interestingly enough
for those of you who dont) you can find a
short film about the new Yoghourterias by
Danones joint venture with a Spanish foodservice company means customers can enjoy the companys ice cream and yoghurt from two
Danone-branded yoghourterias at Madrids Barajas international airport.
17
istribution means
el a channel whos
t many innovations
y.
margin targets, the
r desire for produ
ght weeks or they
he fact that retaile
e shelf space to
at for a new prod
r one usually has
a few of the facto
hat mean that m
out of the ideati
ont last long in t
ket.
m is because in
most there is a
of power amon
cery retailers. It
d in most marke
ached its logica
or example, 90%
ntrolled by just
rvice company m
Barajas internatio
i
e
t
y
m
r
g
h
e
a
r
a
h
o
ke
m
m
c
d
a
o
n
r
B
CHART 3: LIFESTYLE CONSUMERS, A KEY SEGMENT FOR HEALTH BRANDS
Lifestyle consumers are a key consumer group, accounting for 25%-30% of the population in most
markets. It is a low-volume, high-value segment of the market. Most health brands start out targeting
this group a few use it as a beach-head from which to evolve into the mass market. But for many
brands it is better to stay in this segment, which has the benefit of loyal consumers with high repeat
purchase rates (80% or better) and high margins.

Also an early adopter market, these people have no specific medical need but they aim to have a lifestyle
of health and wellness. They are not afraid to experiment and take the risk of trying out new products.
This part of the market is the perfect starting point for most healthy food and beverage start-ups. Of our
28 case studies, 23 are clearly positioned towards these consumers.
Products that target the lifestyle consumer can often have an appeal that means they overlap with the
needs of technology consumers. Beet It, for example, (Case Study 1) has benefits that appeal both
to elite athletes and to committed gym-goers who are not professionals, as do Provita and Click (Case
Studies 8 and 9).
Source: Mellentin & Wennstrm, The Food & Health Marketing Handbook
Health Focus consumer segmentations and percentage of consumers in each segment
Technology
Consumers
Lifestyle
Consumers
Mass-market
Consumers
Solid line = sales
volumes
Sales
TIME
MEDICAL
HEALERS
9% 9% 19% 44% 12% 6%
DISCIPLES INVESTORS MANAGERS STRUGGLERS UNMOTIVATEDS ----- EARLY ADOPTERS ----- EARLY MAJORITY ----- LATE MAJORITY ----- LAGGARDS
Health Focus research is a respected source of insight into consumers. Its segmentation also finds an
important group of early adopters, accounting for 27% of the population, called Disciples and Investors.
8
CHART 3: LIFESTYLE CONSUMERS, A KEY SEGMENT FOR HE
Lifestyle consumers are a key consumer group, accounting for 2
markets. It is a low-volume, high-value segment of the market. M
this group a few use it as a beach-head from which to evolve
brands it is better to stay in this segment, which has the benefit
purchase rates (80% or better) and high margins.
Also an early adopter market, these people have no specific me
of health and wellness. They are not afraid to experiment and ta
This part of the market is the perfect starting point for most hea
28 case studies, 23 are clearly positioned towards these consu
Products that target the lifestyle consumer can often have an a
needs of technology consumers. Beet It, for example, (Case St
to elite athletes and to committed gym-goers who are not profe
Studies 8 and 9).
Source: Mellentin & Wennstrm, The Food & Health Marketing
Health Focus consumer segmentations and percentage of cons
Technology
Consumers
Lifestyle
Consumers
Sales
T
MEDICAL
HEALERS
9% 9% 9% 19%
DISCIPLES INVESTORS
----- EARLY ADOPTERS - ----- EARLY M Y
Health Focus research is a respected source of insight in
important group of early adopters, accounting for 27% of
8
Published by Report
Smart start-up
strategy in
healthy food
and beverage
28 key case studies
you have an idea or a new ood or beverage with
health benets, or nutrition science that you want
to commercialise, how do you successully take it to
market?

Even a successul serial ood entrepreneur such as
Steve Demos, who made his ortune by creating the
/merican soy milk market, initially got it wrong with a
new start-up, as this report shows. Demos explained
that the business plan or his new product had not
targeted the right consumer group a mistake that he
ortunately realized in time to remedy.

Taking new healthy oods and beverages to market is
risky, the cost o marketing is always higher than entrepreneurs believe it is going to be, and the rate o sales
growth is always slower.

This report sets out the ve elements o successul start-up strategy over 21 pages, drawing on lessons rom
28 key case studies o recent start-ups, both successul and unsuccessul. /ll the case studies are based on
interviews with the companies themselves to give you a rst-hand account o what works and what doesn't.
\egetable juice
Coconut water
Protein
Fibre
Probiotics
0ral health
Calorie-burning
Superoods
Sports nutrition
Digestive health
mmunity
Snacking
66
RE P ORT ORDE R F ORM
PDF POWERPOINT POWERPOINT PRICE PER REPORT IN PDF OR PPT 300 / $395 / 255 / A$420 / NZ$530 / 33,000 / C$395
ONLY ONLY & PDF COMBINED PACKAGE FORMAT OF PDF & PPT 480 / $630 / 400 / A$670 / NZ$840 / 52,000 / C$630
Fiber for digestive health: Opportunities, strategies and case studies
NEW! Published October 2010
Smart start-up strategy in healthy food and beverage
NEW! Published November 2010
PDF POWERPOINT POWERPOINT PRICE PER REPORT IN PDF OR PPT 200 / $295 / 190 / A$345 / NZ$395 / 23,000 / C$295
ONLY ONLY & PDF COMBINED PACKAGE FORMAT OF PDF & PPT 320 / $472 / 305 / A$552 / NZ$632 / 36,000 / C$472
Coconut water: innovation and natural health benets drive a new category
Innocent Drinks: seven strategy lessons from the setbacks of Europes biggest smoothie maker
20 Key Case Studies in Functional and Health-Enhancing Beverages
10 Key Trends in Food, Nutrition & Health 2010
Probiotic juice: ve key strategy lessons from Europe and the US
Marketing Kids Healthy Beverages
Organic and all-natural kids snacks and baby foods: Seven key case studies
Failures in Functional Foods and Beverages And What they Reveal About Success
Successful Superfruit Strategy
The Food & Health Marketing Handbook

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10 Key Trends in 2011

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