DATA POINTS

By

THE CAPITAL AREA COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS

COMPLEXITY VERSUS COMMON SENSE: AFFORDABILITY & MIGRATION IN THE AUSTIN METRO AREA
The specter of rising home costs, especially within Travis County, has led many community leaders to fear that residents are increasingly forced to flee central Austin in favor of outlying counties. With home prices increasing much faster than corresponding increases in income, many observers suspect that there must be an ongoing mass exodus from the region's most expensive neighborhoods (especially in Travis County) to more affordable areas in the metropolitan region. Such thinking makes intuitive sense and individuals interested in affordability issues often cite migration figures as proof that poorer residents are being forced out of their communities. A closer look at government statistics, however, suggests that the reality is far more complicated. On average, Americans move every five years. Many Central Texas residents move even more frequently. Between the 2006 and 2010, for example, nearly one in four households in Travis County moved every year. In each of the other four counties in the Austin metropolitan region during this same period, more than 10 percent of the population changed residencies annually. Over time, the frequent moves of Central Texas residents produces extraordinary turnover among individual neighborhoods. More than 75 percent of all Travis County residents have lived in their current home for less than a decade. This figure is similarly high for residents in Hays and Williamson Counties. Even in outlying counties such as Bastrop and Caldwell Counties, more than half the population has moved in the past decade. Still, the question remainsare rising prices a primary cause of frequent moves? There is no doubt that a large number of residents are leaving Travis County every year to settle in neighboring counties. Between 2005 and 2009, more than 21,000 Travis County residents moved to Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, and Williamson counties. Internal migration, however, flows in two directions. During this same period, more than 15,000 residents moved into Travis County from other counties within the Austin metropolitan area. Absolute numbers, however, tell only one part of the story. With Travis County more than twice the size of its largest neighbor (Williamson County) and more than 25 times the size of the least populated county in the Austin metropolitan area (Caldwell County), it should be no surprise that people moving out of Travis County outnumber those moving into the County from neighboring jurisdictions. More telling is whether or not people from Travis are more likely to depart for neighboring environs than the residents of Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, and Williamson County. AUSTIN MSA INCOME & HOME PRICE
INCREASE IN MEDIAN HH INCOME & MEDIAN HOME PRICE (2000-2010)
MEDIAN HH INCOME MEDIAN HOME PRICE

60% 50% 40%

30%
20% 10% 0%
BASTROP CALDWELL HAYS TRAVIS WILLIAMSON Source: U.S. Census Bureau

AUSTIN MSA COST-BURDENED HOMEOWNERS

PERCENTAGE OF HOMEOWNERS SPENDING MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OF INCOME ON HOUSING COSTS (2000-2010)
2000 2010

40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

BASTROP CALDWELL HAYS TRAVIS WILLIAMSON Source: US Census Bureau

AUSTIN MSA RESIDENTS BY HOUSING TENURE

LENGTH OF HOUSING TENURE (2010)
MOVED TO CURRENT HOME AFTER 2000 MOVED CURRENT HOME PRIOR TO 2000

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

BASTROP CALDWELL HAYS TRAVIS WILLIAMSON Source: US Census Bureau

36%

42%

25%

23%

23%

64%

58%

75%

77%

77%

DATA POINTS
By

THE CAPITAL AREA COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS

COMPLEXITY VERSUS COMMON SENSE: AFFORDABILITY & MIGRATION IN THE AUSTIN METRO AREA (continued)
Proportionally, residents of Travis County are less likely to move to neighboring counties within the Austin metropolitan region than residents of Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, and Williamson Counties. Between 2005 and 2009, just 2.3 percent of Travis County residents moved out of the county to other jurisdictions within the metropolitan region each year. In contrast, 3.7 percent of Bastrop residents left the county during this period annually to other areas within the metropolitan area (notably, the data predates the wildfires of 2011). Caldwell and Bastrop Counties also witnessed similar levels of outmigration within the metropolitan area (besides Travis County, only Williamson County experienced an Austin MSA out-migration rate of less than 3 percent). At the very least, this data presents a serious challenge to prevailing understandings of the relationship between affordability and migration. AUSTIN MSA INTERNAL MIGRATION DYNAMICS
PROPORTION OF RESIDENTS ANNUALLY MOVING FROM HOME COUNTY TO ANOTHER COUNTY WITHIN THE AUSTIN MSA (2006-2010)

5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
BASTROP CALDWELL HAYS TRAVIS WILLIAMSON Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Several explanations might reconcile existing data with the belief that the region is suffering a mass exodus of less affluent residents . The most probable explanation is that poorer residents are relocating within Travis County. More than 61 percent of individuals with incomes less than $25,000 who move remain within Travis County (a single percentage point below the figure for individuals making more than $25,000). Despite the countys comparatively high cost-of-living, assets such as public transportation options and social services availability may help keep poorer residents within Travis County. Its also possible that a broader analysis of the region fails to account for the experiences of individual populations and/or neighborhoods. Finally, federal information is often backwards looking. Maybe weve reached a tipping point in the past year; after years of struggling with rising costs, its possible that only now residents are escaping en masse to more affordable communities. Or maybe the entire premise that people are abandoning high cost areas due to a lack of affordability is false. While its clear that the region is becoming increasingly less affordable, the causes and consequences of this trend are tremendously complex. Before crafting public policy responses intended to provide ample economic opportunity for all residents, we must first better understand the prevailing dynamics occurring within our own communities. INTERNAL MIGRATION WITHIN THE AUSTIN MSA (2005 2009)
Source: US Census Bureau Source: US Census Bureau

NET MSA MIGRATION

NET MSA MIGRATION +400

NET MSA MIGRATION

NET MSA MIGRATION

NET MSA MIGRATION

-1.5K

+2K

-6.6K

+5.6K

IN
20K 10K 0 K
NET -28 -209 -890 -371

20K 10K 0 K
28 138 325 -52

20K 10K 0 K
209 -138 1,626 365

20K 10K 0 K
890 -325 -1,626 -5,555

20K 10K 0 K
371 52 -365 5,555

K 0 -10K -20K

K 0 -10K -20K

K 0 -10K -20K

0 K -10K -20K

K 0 -10K -20K

OUT