The Flat Horizon Problem

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

Mike Treder, Executive Director

Stand by the ocean, looking out. It is rare in nature to find a truly flat line, but thats what the horizon appears to be.

Of course, the horizon

is not a flat line. It curves, but gradually, and it isnt easy for us to detect the curve.
In truth, its not a line at all, because the earth has no edge.

We can understand, though, why many premodern societies believed the earth to be flat, with an edge somewhere. After all, thats how it looks.

Now, stand in the present, looking toward the future. Does it look pretty much like today, except more modern?

In reality, the future holds many changes: some transformative, some beneficial, and some dangerous.

The most disruptive future changes may occur as a result of molecular manufacturing, an advanced form of nanotechnology.

But if the future really will be so different from today, why doesnt it look that way from here?

The Intuitive Linear View

Change

Time
The problem is human perspective, what Ray Kurzweil calls the Intuitive Linear View. When we see something that looks like a straight line, we naturally assume that it is. Although change occurs around us every day, unless we look closely we may not notice it. So, we logically think that last week, last month, and last year were like today, and that next year and a few years after that wont be much different either.

Now, stand on the rails of a roller coaster, just before the climb up the highest hill (in your imagination only!).

Ant

Crouch down low, until your eye is even with the track. Get an ants eye view

Standing up, you, the human, can see the slope ahead and the smooth incline of the track.

Walk up the track toward the big hill. The further you go, the steeper the curve becomes. If you look back, its clear how high you have ascended. But crouch down for the ants eye view again, and what do you see?

Leave the roller coaster now and come back to reality.

Stand up really tall, peer back into history, and imagine how things seemed from the Intuitive Linear View

1885:
No such thing as automobiles or airplanes.

1885:

The British Empire will last forever.

1926

1926:

No such thing as television or cable.

1926:

The stock market will rise forever.

1957:
No such thing as communications satellites or the Berlin Wall.

1957:
Cuba
The sunny business partnership between Cuba and the USA will prosper forever.

1967:

No such thing as desktop computers or cell phones.

Kennedy & King

1967:
Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy will be leaders for decades to come.

1974

1974:

"It will be years, not in my time, before a woman will become Prime Minister.
Margaret Thatcher

1986:

No such thing as the World Wide Web.

1986:

The Soviet Union and the Cold War will last forever.

1995

1995:
Spam is a luncheon meat.

1995:
Terrorism is something bad that happens to someone else .

1995

2005

2005:

No such thing as molecular manufacturing.

Graphic Rendition of a Desktop Nanofactory

Courtesy of John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios

2005:

Current socio-political conditions and structures will last forever.

The idea that nothing really changes Its simple to see how wrong this is, but its easy to slip into.

The Coming Nanotechnology Revolution

Not just new products a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems exponential proliferation

Accelerated product improvement cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost
economic discontinuity

Portable, desktop-size factories social disruption Impacts will cross borders global transformation

BIG STEPS in Economic,

Social, and Political History
Computers

Change

Automobiles Railways Steam Engines

Time

BIG STEPS in Economic,

Social, and Political History

Change

Time

Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves

Change

Time

Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves

Change

Time

Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves

Change

Time

Industrial Revolutions

Time

Industrial Revolutions

Time
(Measured in decades)

Nanotechnology Revolution

Time
(Measured in YEARS)

Accelerated Impacts
Molecular Manufacturing Revolution

Industrial Revolutions

Time

The Next Big Step

Computers

Automobiles Railways Steam Engines (Middle Ages)

Time

The Next Big Step

Nanotechnology Computers

Automobiles Railways Steam Engines (Middle Ages)

Time

The Next Big Step

Nanotechnology
Computers

Automobiles Railways Steam Engines (Middle Ages)

Time

Now is the time to stand up, get out of the Intuitive Linear View, avoid the Myth of Perpetuation, and observe the upward curve

Once we have gained perspective, we can begin to make wise decisions for a better and safer nano future!

Nanotechnology on an Upward Slope

Mike Treder
Center for Responsible Nanotechnology www.crnano.org mtreder@crnano.org