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Lecture No. 16
of the course on
Statistics and Probability
by
Dr.Amjad Hussain
IN THE LAST LECTURE,
YOU LEARNT
n
Pr = n (n – 1) (n – 2) …(n – r + 1)
n!
= .
( n − r)!
FACTORIALS
7! = 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2
× 1
6! = 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1
..
.
1! = 1
Also, we define 0! = 1.
Example
4 4!
P3 =
( 4 − 3) !
= 4 × 3× 2
= 24
Let the four members be,
A, B, C and D. Then a tree
diagram which provides an
organized way of listing the
possible arrangements, for
this example, is given below:
President Secretary Treasurer Sample Space
C ABC
B
D ABD
B ACB
A C
D ACD
B ADB
D
C ADC
C BAC
A
D BAD
A BCA
B C
D BCD
A BDA
D
C BDC
B CAB
A
D CAD
A CBA
C B
D CBD
A CDA
D
B CDB
B DAB
A
C DAC
A DBA
D B
C DBC
A DCA
C
B DCB
PERMUTATIONS
In the formula of Pr, if we put r
n
= n, we obtain:
n
Pn = n(n – 1) (n – 2) … 3 × 2 × 1
= n!
i.e. the total number of
permutations of n distinct objects,
taking all n at a time, is equal to n!
EXAMPLE
Suppose that there are three
persons A, B & D, and that they wish
to have a photograph taken.
The total number of ways in
which they can be seated on three
chairs (placed side by side) is:
3
P3 = 3! = 6
These are:
ABD,
ADB,
BAD,
BDA,
DAB,
& DBA.
The above discussion pertained to
the case when all the objects
under consideration are distinct
objects.
If some of the objects are not
distinct, the formula of
permutations modifies as given
below:
The number of permutations of
n objects, selected all at a time,
when n objects consist of n1 of one
kind, n2 of a second kind, …, nk of
a kth kind,
n!
is P = .
n1 ! n 2 ! ..... n k !
( where ∑ n i = n )
EXAMPLE
How many different
(meaningless) words can be
formed from the word
‘committee’?
In this example:
n = 9 (because the total number of
letters in this word is 9)
n1 = 1 (because there is one c)
n2 = 1 (because there is one o)
n3 = 2 (because there are two m’s)
n4 = 1 (because there is one i)
n5 = 2 (because there are two t’s)
and
Hence, the total number of
(meaningless) words
(permutations) is:
n!
P= .
n1 ! n 2 ! ..... n k !
9!
=
1! 1! 2! 1! 2! 2!
9 × 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×1
=
1× 1× 2 × 1× 1× 2 × 1× 2 × 1
= 45360
Next, let us consider the rule of
combinations.
RULE OF COMBINATION
where r < n.
It should be noted that
n n
Pr = r!
r
In other words, every
combination of r objects (out of
n objects) generates r!
permutations.
EXAMPLE
Suppose we have a group of three
persons, A, B, & C.
If we wish to select a group of two
persons out of these three, the three
possible groups are {A, B},
{A, C} and {B, C}.
In other words, the total number
of combinations of size two out of this
Now, suppose that our interest
lies in forming a committee of two
persons, one of whom is to be the
president and the other the secretary
of a club.
The six possible committees are:
(A, B) , (B, A),
(A, C) , (C, A),
(B, C) & (C, B).
In other words, the total
number of permutations of two
persons out of three is 6.
And the point to note is that
each of three combinations
mentioned earlier generates
2 = 2! permutations.
i.e. the combination {A, B}
generates the permutations
(A, B) and (B, A);
the combination {A, C} generates
the permutations
(A, C) and (C, A); and
the combination {B, C} generates
the permutations
(B, C) and (C, B).
n
The quantity
r
or Cr is also called a binomial
n
n n
= 1 =
0 n
and
n n
= n =
1 n − 1
EXAMPLE
A three-person committee is to
be formed out of a group of ten
persons. In how many ways can
this be done?
Since the order in which the
three persons of the committee are
chosen, is unimportant, it is
therefore an example of a problem
involving combinations. Thus the
desired number of combinations is
n 10 10! 10!
= = =
r 3 3! (10 − 3)! 3! 7!
10 × 9 × 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1
=
3 × 2 ×1× 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 ×1
= 120
In other words, there are one
hundred and twenty different
ways of forming a three-person
committee out of a group of only
ten persons!
EXAMPLE
In how many ways can a
person draw a hand of 5 cards
from a well-shuffled ordinary
deck of 52 cards?
The total number of ways of
doing so is given by
n 52 52 × 51× 50 × 49 × 48
= = = 2,598,960
r 5 5× 4 × 3× 2 ×1
Having reviewed the
counting rules that facilitate
calculations of probabilities in
a number of problems, let us
now begin the discussion of
concepts that lead to the formal
definitions of probability.
The first concept in this
regard is the concept of Random
Experiment.
The term experiment means a
planned activity or process whose
results yield a set of data.
A single performance of an
experiment is called a trial. The
result obtained from an
experiment or a trial is called an
outcome.
RANDOM EXPERIMENT
An experiment which produces
different results even though it is
repeated a large number of times
under essentially similar conditions,
is called a Random Experiment.
The tossing of a fair coin, the
throwing of a balanced die,
drawing of a card from a
well-shuffled deck of 52
playing cards, selecting a
sample, etc. are examples of
random experiments.
A random experiment has
three properties:
i) The experiment can be
repeated, practically or
theoretically, any number of
times.
ii) The experiment always has
two or more possible outcomes.
An experiment that has only
one possible outcome, is not a
random experiment.
ii) The outcome of each
repetition is unpredictable, i.e.
it has some degree of
uncertainty.
Considering a more realistic
example, interviewing a person to
find out whether or not he or she
is a smoker is an example of a
random experiment. This is so
because this example fulfils all
the three properties that have just
been discussed:
1. This process of interviewing can
be repeated a large number of times.
2. To each interview, there are at
least two possible replies: ‘I am a
smoker’ and ‘I am not a smoker’.
3. For any interview, the answer is
not known in advance i.e. there is an
element of uncertainty regarding the
person’s reply.
A concept that is closely
related with the concept of a
random experiment is the
concept of the Sample Space.
SAMPLE SPACE
S A
A is shaded
Next, we consider the
concept of equally likely
events:
EQUALLY LIKELY EVENTS
Two events A and B are said to
be equally likely, when one
event is as likely to occur as the
other.
In other words, each event
should occur in equal number in
repeated trials.
EXAMPLE:
When a fair coin is
tossed, the head is as likely
to appear as the tail, and the
proportion of times each side
is expected to appear is 1/2.
EXAMPLE
If a card is drawn out of a
deck of well-shuffled cards, each
card is equally likely to be
drawn, and the probability that
any card will be drawn is 1/52.
IN TODAY’S LECTURE,
YOU LEARNT
•Permutations
•Combinations
•Random Experiment
•Sample Space
•Events
•Mutually Exclusive Events
•Exhaustive Events
•Equally Likely Events
IN THE NEXT LECTURE,
YOU WILL LEARN
•Definitions of Probability:
•Inductive Probability
•‘A Priori’ Probability
•‘A Posteriori’ Probability
•Axiomatic Definition of Probability
•Addition Theorem
•Rule of Complementation
•Conditional Probability
•Independent & Dependent Events
•Multiplication Theorem