Federal Spending in the States

FY 2013 composition

Sources: Pew analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis; USAspending.gov; U.S. Census Bureau;
U.S. Office of Personnel Management; U.S. Department of Defense; and Alaska Department of Revenue

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal-Federalism

Federal Spending Growth in the States Driven

Largely by Retirement and Nonretirement Benefits
Inflation-adjusted federal spending by category, fiscal 2004-13

Sources: Pew analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis; USAspending.gov; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Office of Personnel Management;
U.S. Department of Defense; and the Alaska Department of Revenue

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal-Federalism

Nationally, Federal Spending is Equivalent

to 19% of State Economic Activity
Federal spending relative to gross domestic product by state, federal fiscal 2013
National Average: 19%

Sources: Pew analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis; USAspending.gov; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Office of Personnel Management;
U.S. Department of Defense; and Alaska Department of Revenue

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal-Federalism

The Mix of Federal Spending Differs Widely Among States

Types of federal spending relative to GDP, by state, fiscal 2013
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%

Retirement
Nonretirement
Grants
Contracts
Salaries and Wages

10%
5%
0%

Sources: Pew analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis; USAspending.gov; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Office of Personnel Management;
U.S. Department of Defense; and Alaska Department of Revenue

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal-Federalism

Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis

Key indicators of fiscal health
REVENUE

Tax Revenue
Tax Revenue Volatility
Federal Share of
State Revenue

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

SPENDING

ECONOMY AND PEOPLE

LONG-TERM COSTS

FISCAL POLICY

Change in State
Spending

Employment to
Population Ratio

Debt and Unfunded

Retirement Costs

Reserves and
and
Reserves
Balances
Balances

Sources of State Government Revenue

FY 2012

8%1%
11%
49%
32%

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

Taxes
Federal revenue
Charges
Miscellaneous
Local revenue

Federal Share of State Revenue

Hit 50-Year High After Great Recession
FY 2000 to FY 2012
36%
34%

FY2004:
31.3%

32%

FY2012:
31.6%

30%
28%
26%
24%

RECESSION

FY 2001

RECESSION

FY 2003

FY 2005

FY 2007

FY 2009

50 states
Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts analysis of the U.S. Census Bureaus Annual Survey of State Government Finances, accessed Jan. 23, 2014.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

FY 2011

Greatest and Smallest Shares of

State Revenue from Federal Funds
FY 2000 to FY 2012
60%
MS
45.3%

50%
40%

US
31.6%

30%

AK
20.0%

20%
10%

RECESSION

FY 2001

RECESSION

FY 2003

FY 2005

FY 2007

FY 2009

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts analysis of the U.S. Census Bureaus Annual Survey of State Government Finances, accessed Jan. 23, 2014.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

FY 2011

Sources of State Government Revenue

FY 2012

8%1%
11%
49%
32%

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

Taxes
Federal revenue
Charges
Miscellaneous
Local revenue

State Tax Revenue is Slow

to Recover From Recession
Inflation-adjusted, 2Q 2014

Percent
0

1.6%

-5

-10

-15

2006

2007

R E C2008
ES S I ON

-13.0%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. The analysis is based on the U.S. Census Bureaus Quarterly Summary of State and Local Taxes, as adjusted by the Nelson A. Rockefeller
Institute of Government in its dataset State Government Tax Revenue by State: 1994-2014, accessed Oct. 31, 2014. Data are adjusted for inflation using the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis Implicit Price Deflator For Gross Domestic Product, accessed Oct. 31, 2014.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

Alaska and North Dakota Tax Revenue

Inflation-adjusted, 2Q 2014
Percent
150

119.2%

100
50
-13.7%

0
-50

-68.6%
RECESSION

-100

2006

2007

2008

-69.0%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. The analysis is based on the U.S. Census Bureaus Quarterly Summary of State and Local Taxes, as adjusted by the Nelson A. Rockefeller
Institute of Government in its dataset State Government Tax Revenue by State: 1994-2014, accessed Oct. 31, 2014. Data are adjusted for inflation using the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis Implicit Price Deflator For Gross Domestic Product, accessed Oct. 31, 2014.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

State Tax Revenue Recovers

Slowly and Unevenly
Inflation-adjusted, 2Q 2014

Below -15%
-15% to 0%
0% to 15%
Above 15%

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. The analysis is based on the U.S. Census Bureaus Quarterly Summary of State and Local Taxes, as adjusted by the Nelson A. Rockefeller
Institute of Government in its dataset State Government Tax Revenue by State: 1994-2014, accessed Oct. 31, 2014. Data are adjusted for inflation using the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis Implicit Price Deflator For Gross Domestic Product, accessed Oct. 31, 2014.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

Days that States Could Run on Reserve

Funds
FY 2014 (Preliminary Actual)
Days
150

FY2014:
118.7
days

100
FY2014:
24.0 days

50
0
-50

RECESSIO
N

FY 2001

FY 2003

FY 2005

50-state median

FY 2007

RECESSIO
N

FY2014:
14.1 days

FY 2009

California

FY 2011

West Virginia

FY 2013

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. The analysis is based on data from the Fiscal Survey of States, which is published each fall and spring by the National
Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers. Data for fiscal 2000 through 2013 are from State General Fund, Actual
tables published in fall reports, downloaded June 13, 2014, and Dec. 9, 2014. Data for fiscal 2014 and 2015 are from the fall 2014 report in tables Fiscal
2014 State General Fund, Preliminary Actual and Fiscal 2015 State General Fund, Appropriated.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

States with Biggest Reserves

Excluding Alaska
FY 2014 (Preliminary Actual)
Wyoming

189.1 days

North Dakota

188.4 days

Nebraska

134.1 days

West Virginia
50-state median
0

118.7 days
24.0 days
50

100

150

200

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. The analysis is based on data from the Fiscal Survey of States, which is published each fall and spring by the National
Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers. Data for fiscal 2000 through 2013 are from State General Fund, Actual
tables published in fall reports, downloaded June 13, 2014, and Dec. 9, 2014. Data for fiscal 2014 and 2015 are from the fall 2014 report in tables Fiscal
2014 State General Fund, Preliminary Actual and Fiscal 2015 State General Fund, Appropriated.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

States with Smallest Reserves

FY 2014 (Preliminary Actual)
50-state median

24.0 days

Kentucky

5.8 days

New Jersey

3.3 days

Pennsylvania

1.0 days

Illinois

0.9 days

10

15

20

25

30

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. The analysis is based on data from the Fiscal Survey of States, which is published each fall and spring by the National
Governors Association and the National Association of State Budget Officers. Data for fiscal 2000 through 2013 are from State General Fund, Actual
tables published in fall reports, downloaded June 13, 2014, and Dec. 9, 2014. Data for fiscal 2014 and 2015 are from the fall 2014 report in tables Fiscal
2014 State General Fund, Preliminary Actual and Fiscal 2015 State General Fund, Appropriated.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

States with Most Volatile Tax

Revenue
FY 1995-2013
34.4 % volatilityAlaska
score
Wyoming

12.1 % volatility score

North Dakota

11.6 % volatility score

Vermont

11.6 % volatility score

50 states
0

5.0 % volatility score

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. Volatility scores for each states total tax revenue and specific tax sources were calculated using the U.S. Census Bureaus
State Government Tax Collections historical data series for 1994-2013, accessed Sept. 12, 2014. Data were adjusted to control for the effects of tax
policy change using the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) State Tax Action reports for 1994-2012, accessed in September 2013.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

States with Least Volatile Tax

Revenue
FY1995-2013
50 states

5.0 volatility score

West Virginia

3.7 volatility score

Maryland

3.5 volatility score

Kentucky

2.9 volatility score

South Dakota
0

2.6 volatility score

1

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. Volatility scores for each states total tax revenue and specific tax sources were calculated using the U.S. Census Bureaus
State Government Tax Collections historical data series for 1994-2013, accessed Sept. 12, 2014. Data were adjusted to control for the effects of tax
policy change using the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) State Tax Action reports for 1994-2012, accessed in September 2013.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

Corporate Income Tax Volatility

New York: Year-over-year percent change of major tax sources
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
FY

R E C E SS I O
N

FY

FY

FY

FY

Corporate income

R E C E SS I O
N

FY
Sales

FY

FY

FY

FY

Personal income

Sources: The Pew Charitable Trusts. Volatility scores for each states total tax revenue and specific tax sources were calculated using the U.S. Census Bureaus
State Government Tax Collections historical data series for 1994-2013, accessed Sept. 12, 2014. Data were adjusted to control for the effects of tax
policy change using the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) State Tax Action reports for 1994-2012, accessed in September 2013.

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

Anne Stauffer

PewTrusts.org/Fiscal-Federalism

Barbara Rosewicz
PewTrusts.org/Fiscal50

Need help with the data? Contact: Sarah Leiseca

(sleiseca@pewtrusts.org)