Geological Risk

Evaluation

Four Level of Petroleum Investigation

SEDIMENTARY BASIN
PETROLEUM SYSTEM

Economics
VERY
Important

Economics
NOT
Important

PLAY
PROSPECT

(Kusuma & Darin,1989)

Delta systems in Kalimantan:

Borneo Central Range (BCR) Provenance/ source for the deltas
BCR is the compressed area between westward movement Neogen Greater
Sorong Fault system and convergence associated with Oligocene-E Miocene South
China Sea spreading (Baillie et al., 2004)

 NE of Meratus Uplift, caused by

left lateral transpression in Late
Miocene to Pliocene
Mesozoic ophiolites, volcanics
and metamorphics are exposed
in Meratus: thought to be
inverted subduction complex
Transpressional thrusts are
near-vertical. Structural
intensity increases from south
to north in Barito Basin

(Compiled from Kusuma and Darin, 1989

and Mason et al., 1993)

Simplified Regional Structural Xsection

(Darman & Sidi, 2000)

TECTONIC SETTING
Eastern margin: Passive (rifted) margin
Western margin: Passive (rifted) margin
(Paleogene), foreland basin (Neogene).

 Barito Basin rifting may have

started in Paleocene,
Palynology of Tanjung outcrop
indicates Late Eocene age
Marine Berai Limestone is Late
Oligocene in age
Warukin is Early to Late
Miocene. Upper part of
Warukin is syn-orogenic ?
Meratus Uplift timing
uncertain: could be Miocene or
as late as mid-Pliocene.
Majority of syn & post-orogenic
sediments are Dahor
Formation
Compiled from Bow Valley, 1992 and Awang et al. ,1994

Petroleum system summary and chart

Slide 9

Play Concept

Slide 10

LEAD A

OIL CASE (MMBO)

OIL CASE (MMBO)

Unrisked

Conditional (Risked)

P10
69.17

P50
185.43

P90
497.15

P10
14.16

P50
37.96

P90
101.77

SWA-10009
GAS CASE (BCF)

GAS CASE (BCF)

Unrisked

P10
153.06

P50
402.08

Conditional (Risked)

P90
1056.23

P10
31.33

P50
82.31

GEOLOGICAL RISK:

= Syn Rift
= Basement

Source Rx. (Charge) :

70 %

Reservoir Quality :

65 %

Trap Integrity :

73 %

Timing & Migration :

63 %

Prob. Of Geol Success ;

20 %

P90
216.22

Pmax = 5558.21
acre
Pmin = 272 acre

LEAD B

Grid Increment 50
m
CI 10 m

Line SW

ESTIMATE RESERVES UNRISKED GAS

P5

P50

P95

9.01

30.08

100.42

(BCF)

(BCF)

(BCF)

ESTIMATE RESERVES UNRISKED OIL

P5
P50
P95
1.98

6.66

22.43

(MMBO)

(MMBO)

(MMBO)

GEOLOGICAL RISK:
Source Rx. (Charge) :
Reservoir Quality :

65 %
73 %

Trap Integrity :

61 %

Timing & Migration :

Prob. Of Geol
Success ;

70 %
20 %

Geological Risk Evaluation

Resiko geologi mrpkan resiko yg berkaitan dng adanya
akumulasi minyak bumi yg dpt diproduksi.
4 faktor independen dlm penilaian resiko geologi. :
1. Adanya batuan induk yang matang (P source)
2. Adanya batuan reservoar (P reservoir)
3. Adanya perangkap (P trap)
4. Dinamika Play (P dynamics) atau saat pembentukan perangkap relatif thdp waktu migrasi, jalur migrasi
hidrokarbon dr bat induk ke bat reservoar, & preservasi hidrokarbon hingga saat ini.

Probabilitas Kesuksesan Geologi (Pg) ditentukan dng

mengalikan setiap faktor probabilitas kehadiran ke 4
faktor dari konsep akumulasi hidrokarbon di atas
Pg = P-source x P-reservoir x P-trap x P-dynamics
Probabilitas setiap faktor pembentuk akumulasi hidrokarbon ditentukan pertama kali dng menganalisis
informasi yg tersedia
Penilaian didsrkan pd evaluasi analogi & kemiripan,
jika sedikit atau tanpa data, shg model akan merefleksikan analoginya.
Opini dikembangkan jika didukung data. Opini tsb dpt
positif (encouraging - favorable), atau negatif
(questionable - unfavorable).
Faktor2 dng probabilitas yg sama aspek (+)/ (-) nya
diberikan angka probabilitas keterdapatan 0,5.

INDIRECT DATA

Dont
Supporting
The Models

Supporting
The Models

DIRECT DATA

TYPE of DATA

Supporting
The Models

Dont
Supporting
The Models

Example of Data
Shows, seeps
Presence of direct analysis

Example of Data
Lack of shows
Thin or poor reservoir

Probability Occurence
ENCOURAGING
values = 0.5 - 0.7

Probability Occurence
QUESTIONABLE
values = 0.3 - 0.5

Example of Data
Nearby product field or wells
Proven HC systems with
moderate/high source potindex(>5)
Maturations models from
nearby wells

Probability Occurence

Example of Data
Dry well testing
Lack or reservoir in wells
Very low souce potential (<2)

Probability Occurence
UNFAVORABLE
values = 0.01-0.3

FAVORABLE
values = 0.7- 0.99

Penilaian favorable atau unfavorable didsrkan atas

data langsung yg cenderung menguatkan atau
menyanggah model.
Contoh data langsung untuk penilaian favorable meliputi sumur
atau lap produksi di dekatnya (dng aliran yg stabil pd saat pengujian), sistem HC nya terbukti dng indek potensi bat induk
(berdsrkan data evaluasi bat-induk berkualitas tinggi sebesar
>5), & model kematangan bat induk dng parameter yg didukung data dr sumur di dekatnya.
Contoh data langsung untuk suatu penilaian unfavorable meliputi pengujian sumur pd struktur yg tlh ditentukan dr seismik
berkualitas baik namun tdk dijumpai HC, kurangnya reservoar
dlm sumur, & suatu sistem HC dng indek potensi batuan induk
sangat rendah (<2).
Dng data langsung yg mendukung model, probabilitas keterjadian adlh favorable (dng nilai 0,70,99). Jika data langsung
tidak mendukung model probabilitas pembentukan adalah
unfavorable (dengan nilai 0,010,3).

Penilaian yang encouraging atau questionable

didasarkan atas data tdk langsung yang mendukung
atau tidak mendukung model
Contoh2 data tidak langsung untuk penilaian encouraging
meliputi adanya indikasi HC dalam inti batuan (shows),
rembesan HC (seeps), & kehadiran langsung hal2yang
menyerupainya
Contoh data tdk langsung untuk suatu penilaian yg questionable meliputi kurangnya tanda2 keterdapatan HC dlm inti bat
(show), sumur2di sekitarnya, reservoar yg tipis atau kualitasnya
buruk, & adanya bukti pensesaran baru. Dgn data tdk langsung
tsb, kita lebih tergantung pd model daripada data, & opini yang
muncul didukung, namun tidak dipastikan, oleh data
Dng data tdk langsung yg mendukung model, probabilitas keterjadian adalah encouraging (dng nilai 0,50,7). Jika data tdk
langsung tidak mendukung model, probabilitas keterjadian
adalah questionable (nilai 0,30,5).

A.Source Rock
1. Capacity for HC Charge
a. Presence & volume of source rock
b. Thickness
c. Areal extent
d. Number of distinct source horizons
e. Continuity
f. Known HC in area (fields, wells, seeps)
g. Organic richness (TOC, S1+S2),
h. SCI
1. Type I - lacustrine, oil prone
i. Kerogen type 2. Type II- marine, oil&gas prone
3. Type III- gas prone
4. Type IV- Inert

2. Source Rock Maturity

Total Score

a. Source rock data (Ro, Tmax)

b. Determine whether source rock in fetch
Total Score

B.Reservoir Rock
1. Presence

a. Lithology
b. Distribution
c. Depositional model

Total Score
a. Lateral continuity & extension
b. Heterogenety
2. Quality
c. Porosity ranges & types
(Capacity for
stabilized flow) d. Permeability ranges & types
e. Fracture potential & preservation
f. Diagenetic characteristics
Total Score

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

Number & location of seismic lines

Quality (resolution) of seismic data
1. Trap
Reliability (velocity complications,misties)
definition
Lateral velocity gradients
(confidence
in data)
Integration of gravity,magnetic, seismic &
well log information
a. Type of trap (anticlinal,fault,etc)
2. Trap
b. Amount of four-way closure
characteristic
c. Amaount & type of other closure
d. Compartmentalization by faulting
e. Alternate non-closing interpretations

3. 1)
Seal
Stratigraphy/ a. Litology & ductility

b. Thickness
c. Continuity
d. Curvate over trap
e. Degree of fracturing or faulting
2) Structural/ a. Fault type amount of throw
Fault Seal b. Time of movement
c. Depth & pressure lithologies juxtaposed
d. Dip of beds a cross fault
e. Potential for sealing gouge
3) Stratigraphic Seal-bottom or lateral
4) Other Seals-diagenetic, pressure, etc
Top Seal

Total Score

C.Trap

Timing & Migration

1.Timing a. Timing of reservoir, seal & trap

development relative to that of HC

generation & migration
b. Maturation model (burial history,
paleogeothermal regime)
c. Thermal gradients (BHT, heat flow, lithology)Total Score

a. Position of trap with respect to kitchen/fetch

2.Migration
area
Pathways b. Amount of source rock in the oil window within
fetch area
c. Migration style (vertical or lateral)
d. Migration distance required (vertical & lateral)
e. Migration conduits & barriers/migration style
Total Score
f. Connection of pathways to reservoir
a. Post entrapment tectonism or
fracturing
b. Diplacement of oil by water or gas
3.Preservation/ c. Biodegradation
d. Thermal cracking
Segregtion
Total Score
e. Preferential migration of gas

Risk Assessment Worksheets

(Modified from Otis & Schneidermann, 1997).

Risk Assessment (Otis & Schneidermann, 1997).

ECON-AL

Diagram Alir Analisis Keekonomian

Investasi Minyak & Gas Bumi
Kajian G & G
Prospect & Lead
Recouces - Reserves

Kajian R & P
(Teknik Produksi)
Peramalan Produksi

Kajian Keekonomian
Asumsi2: crude oil price,
Discount rate factor,
government & contractor
share, income tax, FTP,
DMO, DMO Fee, dll
Parameter2 perhitungan
ekonomi

ESTIMATE EXPENDITURE
PEROLEHAN BAGI HASIL
CASH FLOW

Flow of Revenue of Indonesia PSC

GROSS PRODUCTION
FTP (Max10%) (-)
(+)

(-) Investment credit (+)

MaxCost
(-) Recovery: 100% (+)
Equity to be split
Indonesia Share
(+)
(-)

Contractor Share

DMO Max 25% (-)

DMO fee

(+)

Taxable income
(+)

Indonesia Take

Tax 44%

(-)

Contractor Take