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Jiwan Acharya
Climate Change Specialist
Sustainable Infrastructure Division
Regional & Sustainable Development Department
Outline of the presentation
Water
Decreases in water Sea level rise threatens
Glaciers disappear availability major coastal cities
Ecosystems
Damage to Rising number of species face extinction
Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Risk of
Irreversible Increasing risk of abrupt, large-scale shifts climatic
Changes shifts
Country tCO2/Capita
Bangladesh 0.25
Bhutan NA
India 1.18
Maldives NA
Nepal 0.11
Pakistan 0.85
United States
20
Average
Annual 15
Canada
CO2
Emission European Union Japan
per 10
Person
(tons)
5 India
China
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Source: International Energy Agency
Which are the process drivers?
GHG Emissions by Sector
Industry
Residential 19%
and Agriculture
Commercial
14%
Buildings Non-
8% Energy-
Energy-
Related Related
Transport Forestry
13%
17%
3% Waste and
waste water
Energy
Supply 26%
Developing Asia
Rest of Rest of
the 69% 31% 45% 55% the
World World
2007 2030
Actual (World) Projection (World)
Total = 28,826 Mil tons CO2 Total = 40,226 Mil tons CO2
Total primary energy supply (TPES) would increase by 1.5 fold to 3.8 fold across
the four countries during 2005-2030 in the base case. Fossil fuel use would
increase much faster than TPES during the period (i.e., by 2.3 fold to 8 fold).
The share of fossil fuels in TPES would increase in all countries during the study
period in the base case. In 2005 it ranged from 11% to 62%; by 2030 it would
be in the range of 27% to 83%.
Electricity generation would increase by 1.7 fold to 5.9 fold in the countries
during the period in the base case, with significant increase in the fossil fuel
share in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Under 450 ppmv scenario, there would be a significant switch from the use of
coal to renewable energy (biomass, wind) and MSW in Sri Lanka and from coal
to renewable energy and natural gas in Bangladesh.
Cumulative GHG emission abatement potential during 2010-2030 under the 450
ppmv scenario varies widely (0.04% in Bhutan; 2.6% in Nepal, 9.4%
Bangladesh and 39% in Sri Lanka).
RECCSA Study – Initial Key Findings (2)
Most of GHG abatement in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and Bhutan during
2010-2030 under 450 ppmv would come from the power sector; while it
would be the transport sector in the case of Nepal.
A number of energy efficient technologies both in the demand and energy
supply side would be cost effective under 450 ppmv, with their use varying
across the countries.
In 2020, the total energy related GHG abatement potential of the 4
countries at carbon price of about US$ 25 per ton CO2e would be about
32.3 million ton CO2e, with the shares of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka being
74.2% and 20.6% respectively.
There exist several no-regret options (cost wise) in both energy efficient
and renewable energy technology categories with a significant GHG
abatement potential in the countries.
Financing Climate Change Mitigation
Country Target
China, People's To reduce carbon intensity by 40% to 45% by
Republic of 2020 on 2005 level
India To reduce carbon intensity by 20% to 25% by
2020 on 2005 level
Indonesia To reduce emissions by 26% compared to BAU by
2020 unilaterally, 41% with international support
Core Priorities
Scaling-up Clean Energy
Encouraging Climate-friendly Urban and Transport
Development
Managing Land Use and Forests for Carbon Sequestration
Promoting Climate-resilient Development
Policy and Institutional Support
Modalities
Financing: Innovative Financing and Financing for
Innovation
Knowledge Generation
Partnerships
ADB Climate Change Mitigation Projects
Jiwan Acharya
Sustainable Infrastructure Division
Regional & Sustainable Development Department
Tel: (+632) 632-6207
E-mail: jacharya@adb.org