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views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice, opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.

Climate Change Mitigation: Issues and Options for South Asia

Building Capacity to Respond to Climate Change in South Asia 29-30 June, 2010 Kathmandu, Nepal

Climate Change Specialist Sustainable Infrastructure Division Regional & Sustainable Development Department

Jiwan Acharya

Outline of the presentation 

 

Climate change mitigation important?

what is it? Why is it

Sources of GHG emissions what are the sectors responsible? What are the opportunities? ADB s actions on climate change mitigation

Mitigation 


what is it?

Mitigation one of the two central approaches in climate change process (other one being adaptation) Mitigation involves human interventions to reduce GHG emissions: By sources (e.g. technological change and fuel substitution) Or enhance GHG removal from atmosphere by sinks (e.g. forests, vegetation to absorb CO2) 



Mitigation is basically to reduce resource inputs and emissions per unit of output. It means implementing policies to reduce GHG emissions and enhance sinks.

Why is mitigation important? 

Under current practice, global GHG emissions will most likely increase by 25 90% between 2000 and 2030 (increased 70% between 1970 and 2004). Mitigation efforts over the next two decades will have larger impacts on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels (i.e. concentration of GHGs in atmosphere, ppm). 

Projected Impacts of Climate Change
0rC
Food Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions Water Glaciers disappear Decreases in water availability Sea level rise threatens major coastal cities

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 1rC 2rC 3rC 4rC
Falling crop yields

5rC

6rC

Falling yields in many developed regions

Ecosystems Damage to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Events Risk of Irreversible Changes Rising number of species face extinction

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Increasing risk of abrupt, large-scale shifts climatic shifts 430ppm CO2e (Today) 550ppm CO2e 650ppm CO2e

280ppm CO2e (Pre-Industrial)
Source: ADB, the Stern Review

Which are the main greenhouse gases?
GHG Source Share in global emissions (in 2004) 76.7%

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

ythe consumption of energy from burning fossil fuels ydeforestation yagricultural activities yenergy production ywaste ymainly from agricultural activities yused as replacements for ozone-depleting substances yused in some industrial processes and in electric equipment

Methane (CH4)

14.3% 7.9%

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

1.1%

Who are the top 10 GHG emitters?
Rank Country GHG emissions Billion tons/yr 6.8 6.4 5.03 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.4
1

Tons of per capita emission 5.5 21.0 10.2 11.9 1.2 11.0 19.8 13.7 2.2 1.6

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X

PRC USA European Union Russia India Japan Canada South Korea Brazil Indonesia

0.3

Source: Reuters News, 26 Nov 2009 1Taking Co2 from deforestation into account, Indonesia is the 3rd largest emitter

Per Capita Emissions in South Asia
Country Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka tCO2/Capita 0.25 NA 1.18 NA 0.11 0.85 0.64

Source: IEA, 2009

Comparing Per capita CO2 Emissions
25
United States

20

Average Annual 15 CO2 Emission per 10 Person
(tons)

Canada European Union Japan

5
China

India

0 1980
Source: International Energy Agency

1985

1990

1995

2000

Which are the process drivers? GHG Emissions by Sector
Industry Residential and Commercial Buildings

19%
Agriculture

14%

EnergyRelated

8%

NonEnergyRelated
Forestry

Transport 13%

17%

Energy Supply

3% Waste and waste water 26%

Total Global GHG Emissions: 49 Giga tons CO2e, 2004 Source: IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, 4th Assessment Synthesis Report 2007

Developing Asia s Share in Global CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption

Rest of the 69% World

Developing Asia
31% 45%

Rest of the 55% World

2007 Actual (World)
Total = 28,826 Mil tons CO2
Source: ADB, data from IEA World Energy Outlook 2009

2030 Projection (World)
Total = 40,226 Mil tons CO2

RECCSA Study 

Initial Key Findings (1)

Total primary energy supply (TPES) would increase by 1.5 fold to 3.8 fold across the four countries during 2005-2030 in the base case. Fossil fuel use 2005would increase much faster than TPES during the period (i.e., by 2.3 fold to 8 fold). The share of fossil fuels in TPES would increase in all countries during the study period in the base case. In 2005 it ranged from 11% to 62%; by 2030 it would be in the range of 27% to 83%. Electricity generation would increase by 1.7 fold to 5.9 fold in the countries during the period in the base case, with significant increase in the fossil fuel share in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Under 450 ppmv scenario, there would be a significant switch from the use of coal to renewable energy (biomass, wind) and MSW in Sri Lanka and from coal to renewable energy and natural gas in Bangladesh. Cumulative GHG emission abatement potential during 2010-2030 under the 2010450 ppmv scenario varies widely (0.04% in Bhutan; 2.6% in Nepal, 9.4% Bangladesh and 39% in Sri Lanka). 

  

RECCSA Study 
 

Initial Key Findings (2)

Most of GHG abatement in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and Bhutan during 20102010-2030 under 450 ppmv would come from the power sector; while it would be the transport sector in the case of Nepal. A number of energy efficient technologies both in the demand and energy supply side would be cost effective under 450 ppmv, with their use varying across the countries. In 2020, the total energy related GHG abatement potential of the 4 countries at carbon price of about US$ 25 per ton CO2e would be about 32.3 million ton CO2e, with the shares of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka being 74.2% and 20.6% respectively. There exist several no-regret options (cost wise) in both energy efficient noand renewable energy technology categories with a significant GHG abatement potential in the countries. 

Financing Climate Change Mitigation 

Financing need for mitigation is huge: huge: 

UNFCCC estimates more than $200 billion additional investment required to reduce CO2eq by 25% below 2000 in CO2 25% 2030 (i.e. still less than 3% of global GDP in 2030) (i. 2030) Developed countries leadership Role of private sector Market mechanisms such as CDM 

  

Stern Review: Review: 

The cost of inaction could be 5 ± 20% of loss in global GDP 20% whereas cost of action of reducing GHG emissions can be limited to 1% of GDP/year

UNFCCC and Mitigation 

Mitigation is one key item in UNFCCC and use of market mechanisms such as CDM to make it cost effective in the Kyoto Protocol Industrialized countries have committed to reduce only average of 5.2% of 1990 emissions in 2008 2012 very insignificant, yet created huge global carbon market Bali Road Map (COP13, Dec 2007) 

Mitigation is one of the four elements

Developed countries to reduce 10-40% by 2020 and 40-90% by 2050 below 1990 levels for low to medium stabilization levels (450 550 ppm) Developing countries to take nationally appropriate mitigation actions Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions - NAMAs.

Copenhagen COP 15 and Mitigation 

     

No formal consensus on targets for GHG reduction A political agreement on 2 degree target New mechanism for REDD Voluntary financial pledges Partial CDM reform Major developing country emitters announce targets Ambitious targets for financing: $30 billion by 2012 $100 billion per year by 2020

Targets announced by Annex I countries
Country Australia Canada EU Japan Kazakhstan New Zealand Norway Russia Switzerland US Target -5% to -15%, or 25% -20% -20% to -30% -25% -15% -10% to -20% -30% to -40% -15% to -25% -20% to -30% -14% to -17% Base year 2000 2006 1990 1990 1992 1990 1990 1990 1990 2005

Note: This is not an exhaustive list. All Annex I countries, except Turkey, have announced their targets but some targets are yet to be fully endorsed by their legislations.

Pledges made by Non-Annex I countries NonCountry China, People's Republic of India Indonesia Target To reduce carbon intensity by 40% to 45% by 2020 on 2005 level To reduce carbon intensity by 20% to 25% by 2020 on 2005 level To reduce emissions by 26% compared to BAU by 2020 unilaterally, 41% with international support To become carbon neutral by 2019 To reduce emissions by 5% from 1990 levels (target year not set) To reduce emissions 4% below 2005 level by 2020, or 30% below BAU (unilaterally) To reduce emissions 16% from BAU level by 2020

Maldives Philippines Korea, Republic of Singapore

Note: This is not an exhaustive list

ADB s Strategy 2020 and Climate Change ADB s Long-term Strategic Framework (2008Long(20082020) Inclusive Economic Growth Regional Integration Environmentally sustainable growth 

Environment including climate change: one of the five core areas of operations Aims to scale up support for projects that address climate change 

Core Priorities and Modalities 

Core Priorities Scaling-up Clean Energy Encouraging Climate-friendly Urban and Transport Development Managing Land Use and Forests for Carbon Sequestration Promoting Climate-resilient Development Policy and Institutional Support 

Modalities Financing: Innovative Financing and Financing for Innovation Knowledge Generation Partnerships

ADB Climate Change Mitigation Projects 

  

Renewable energy projects in Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan Solid Waste Management in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan Energy Efficiency (CFL promotion) in Pakistan Sustainable transport projects in India, Nepal

Summary 
    
Mitigation, a central approach, refers to reduction of GHG by sources or sinks CO2 is the largest contributing GHG. Largest growth in GHG emissions is from energy supply and road transport Deforestation, with about 20% of global emissions, is a significant contributor to climate change Long term goal is to stabilize about 450 ppm, resulting 2 degree C rise 2.4

There is significant potential for mitigation in all sectors in South Asia Carbon market with REDD has great potential for cost effective mitigation

THANK YOU! YOU!

Jiwan Acharya
Sustainable Infrastructure Division Regional & Sustainable Development Department Tel: (+632) 632-6207 632E-mail: jacharya@adb.org