The UAE State of Climate Report

A Review of the Arabian Gulf Region’s

Changing Climate & Its Impacts

2021

www.moccae.gov.ae
 The UAE State of Climate Report:
A Review of the Arabian Gulf Region’s
Changing Climate & Its Impacts

2021
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary 07
2. Introduction 10
3. Climate Projections for the UAE & the Gulf 13
Temperature 15
Precipitation 19
Seawater – Temperature, Salinity & pH 22
Sea Level Rise 24
Extreme Weather Events 25
4. Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change 27
Infrastructure 28
Public Health 30
Water & Agriculture 31
Ecosystems 32
5. Conclusion & Way Forward 35
6. References 36

3
List of Figures & Tables
Figure 1: Summary of modeled projections for different climate properties in the UAE and surrounding region 14
Figure 2: Change in the UAE surface temperature relative to 1951-1980 16
Figure 3: Historical rainfall trends recorded at airport weather stations in the UAE 20
Figure 4: Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the Arabian Sea for the period 1979-2008 27
Figure 5: Summary of the key sectoral impacts of climate change in the UAE 29
Figure 6: Modeling approaches used to assess terrestrial biodiversity’s vulnerability to climate change 33

Table 1: Summary of UAE temperature projections 17

Table 2: Summary of projected warming by 2095 18
Table 3: Summary of seasonal temperature increase projections for the Arabian Peninsula 19
Table 4: Projected warming in the Arabian Peninsula using CMIP6 models 19
Table 5: Summary of projections for precipitation changes by 2095 21
Table 6: Projections of precipitation changes in the Arabian Peninsula using CMIP6 models 22
Table 7: Summary of the corrected tidal gauge station results 25

4
Acronyms
ACE Accumulated Cyclone Energy
ADW Angular Distance Weighting
AGEDI Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative
AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model
AR5 Fifth Assessment Report
ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
CCSM4 Community Climate System Model (Ver. 4)
CESM Community Earth System Model
CMCC-CM Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici Climate Model
CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
CNRM Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques
COSMO-CLM Consortium for Small-scale Modeling in Climate Mode
CRU Climate Research Unit
DBS Distribution-Based Scaling
EAD Environment Agency – Abu Dhabi
EBM Energy Balance Model
ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation
ESCWA United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
ESM Earth System Model
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
GCM General Circulation Model/Global Climate Model
GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GIA Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
GMST Greenwich Mean Sidereal Time
GNSS Global Navigational Satellite System
GPS Global Positioning System
HIRLAM High-Resolution Limited Area Model
ICE-5G VM4 Ice Sheet Reconstruction Glacial Isostatic Model
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

5
Acronyms
ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone
LNRCCP Local, National, and Regional Climate Change Program
MAGICC Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change
MENA Middle East and North Africa
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research
NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
POD Proper Orthogonal Decomposition
PSMSL Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level
PSU Practical Salinity Units
RCP Representative Concentration Pathway
RCA4 Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model
RCM Radiative Convective Model
SCENGEN Regional Climate SCENario GENerator
SEI Stockholm Environment Institute
SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
SRH Storm-Relative Helicity
SSP Shared Socio-Economic Pathways
SST Sea Surface Temperature
TG Tidal Gauge
TS Time Series
UAE United Arab Emirates
UHI Urban Heat Island
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WFM Weather Forecast Model
WHO World Health Organization
WRF Weather Research and Forecasting

6
1. Executive Summary
Climate change is one of the most critical challenges the world faces today. In light of the climate impacts being experienced
globally, systematic climate data collection and modeling as well as climate risk assessment have emerged as priority areas of
research. The resultant global studies and analyses have yielded and continue to yield relevant findings for the UAE and the
wider Arab region, while regional climate research and modeling is growing.

The purpose of this report is to review the results of research and modeling studies, and advance the understanding of the
Arab region’s changing climate and its impacts. Synthesizing key country-level and regional results, this report reviews
available findings on (1) observed and projected climatic changes in the UAE and the wider Arab region, and (2) critical
sectoral impacts of climate change. It acts as a summary of select major studies, encompassing changes in temperature,
rainfall, seawater properties, sea level rise, and extreme weather. With regard to climate risks and impacts, the report focuses
on infrastructure, public health, water and agriculture, and the environment.

A review of literature on the UAE and the region suggests that while some climatic projections are available, and future trends
can be discerned, gaps in climate data and knowledge remain, calling for more region-specific studies. Climate modeling in
the region has been sparse, and datasets and results are often difficult to compare, given differing assumptions, model
choices, study boundaries and timeframes. Often, there is a high degree of uncertainty in the models and their projections
due to limited data availability.

7
Climate Change Projections
Studies focused on the UAE and the Arabian Peninsula global temperatures increase, ice mass loss in the
agree that average temperatures have risen and will Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to
continue to rise, even though the extent of the increase exacerbate sea level rise in the Gulf and elsewhere.
may differ across different parts of the Peninsula.
Projections for precipitation in the Arab region present a
Concomitantly, the surface water temperature in the
large uncertainty, and total average rainfall may either
Arabian Gulf will also rise, along with a smaller increase in
increase or decrease. It is indicated that rainfall may
the temperature of the deep waters of the Gulf (as heat
become less frequent, but the intensity of precipitation
does not travel well down the water column). In addition
events may increase.
to temperature, other seawater properties will also
register change. Seawater salinity and pH are projected to In addition to extreme temperatures, weather events
increase with increased water evaporation and higher such as droughts, sandstorms, and cyclones are a source
absorption of CO2, respectively. of concern due to their devastating impacts. Extreme
events such as hailstorms are expected to increase,
Sea level in the Arabian Gulf is expected to rise due to
especially in and around mountainous areas. Similarly,
deglaciation and thermal effects. Melting of ice caps and
cyclonic activity in the Arabian Sea is expected to
transfer of large amounts of ice to the water body of
increase in frequency as well as severity.
oceans is the biggest contributor to sea level rise. As

8
Climate Impacts
Changes in the region’s climate are already impacting
people and infrastructure. An understanding of these
impacts is vital for building adaptive capacity and
enhancing climate resilience. Protecting lives and
livelihoods as well as the gains of economic growth
requires the integration of climate risks into development
planning at the outset. Gulf countries have made a start
in assessing climate risks and associated impacts, and
defining adaptation plans to address them. As part of its
National Climate Change Adaptation Program, the UAE
has undertaken climate risk assessments for four priority
sectors: energy, infrastructure, health, and the
environment. This report captures key sectoral risks
relevant for the UAE and the region.
Infrastructure facing risks from climate change includes
buildings, transport links, energy assets, desalination
plants, water supply lines, and sanitation and waste
management facilities. Vital transport and energy links
may be disrupted due to extreme temperatures as well as
weather events, causing loss of economic opportunities.
Gulf countries are home to extensive coastal and offshore
infrastructure, which faces risks from sea level rise and
storm surges as well as increased seawater salinity and pH.
On the health front, very high temperatures are a key risk
factor for people residing in hot and arid countries of the
region. Climate change may also increase the spread of
vector-borne diseases and, with its impact on the
prevalence of ozone and aeroallergens, cause a rise in the
incidence of respiratory problems.
Climate’s impact on surface water availability and
groundwater recharge directly affects water access. Due
to the acceleration of seawater intrusion owing to sea
level rise, the quality of fresh groundwater resources in
coastal aquifers will also be affected. These changes will
hold consequences for communities, industry, and
ecosystems. Decrease in freshwater availability implies
that more freshwater will need to be produced from
desalination of seawater, and hence the number and
capacity of desalination plants in the UAE and the region
may need to increase to respond to freshwater
requirements. The agricultural sector, which in the Arab
region depends highly on groundwater for irrigation, will
be particularly affected. In addition to water scarcity, the
sector will witness climate impacts on crop yields,
suitability of locations for farming of traditional plants
and crops, and livestock productivity and health.
Marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems, and the
species and habitats integral to them, will be affected by
rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns,
sea level rise, and inland intrusion of saltwater. Regional
studies on the vulnerability of species suggest serious
consequences in the form of habitat loss and even
extinction of species. Observations and modeling have
indicated that coral reefs in the Arabian Gulf are already
impacted by climate change through bleaching and
disturbance regimes, the incidence of which may increase
with changes in temperature and ocean properties.
A strengthened climate data collection effort is needed
to better understand observed changes and improve
modeling prospects in the UAE and the region. Increasing
the scope of data collection and research, enhancing
data quality, and developing models with varied scenarios
and assumptions would allow the climate system to be
better documented and better accounted for in
policymaking. Robust climate science, and proactive
adaptation planning for human wellbeing and sustained
economic growth is needed to ensure that the UAE and
the wider region are well-equipped to address climate
risks and impacts.
9
2. Introduction
Climate change poses a critical challenge to the world
today. It is estimated that human activities have caused
global average temperature to rise by 1°C above pre-
industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C (IPCC,
2018). If global warming continues at the current rate, it is
likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 (IPCC, 2018)1 .
The changing climate is putting communities and
ecosystems at risk globally, and the UAE and the Gulf region
are no exception. The hot and arid desert climate of the
region contributes to making it especially vulnerable to
climate impacts.
The years 2020 and 2016 are tied as the warmest since
temperature records began. Continuing the warming
trend, the globally averaged temperature in 2020 was
1.02°C warmer than the baseline 1951-1980 mean (NASA,
2021). A UNDP (2010) report concluded that MENA is one
of the regions most vulnerable to climate change impacts.
It is projected that groundwater salinity in the region will
increase, more land degradation will occur, and biodiversity
on land and in Gulf waters will be affected. Rising sea levels
will affect coastlines and could impact desalination plants,
which are a vital source of freshwater in the UAE and the
region. Climate change is expected to increase the
frequency and intensity of extreme climate conditions and
related disasters, leading to droughts, floods, hurricanes,
and dust storms, and exposing people and infrastructure to
risk. While the Arab region has been adapting to changes in
rainfall and temperature for thousands of years, the pace at
which the climate is now changing is challenging existing
coping mechanisms.
1
The Paris Agreement commits Parties to “holding the increase in the
global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels
and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-
industrial levels” (UNFCCC, 2015).
The impacts of climate change are evident already, and the
risks these pose are likely to compound over time. Changes
in climate variables hold consequences for human safety
and wellbeing, income, and employment. Safety and
reliability of infrastructure (including transport links,
energy and industry assets, and buildings), agricultural
production and yield, freshwater availability, and
ecosystems’ health are expected to be impacted by the
changing climate. Human health and sustenance will be
threatened directly by climate impacts, such as rising
temperatures, and indirectly by climate impacts on air,
water, and food systems.
In order to mitigate risks, science-based climate adaptation
policies are needed, and building the adaptive capacity of
communities and economic sectors requires robust
climate data and information. While strong evidence of
rising average temperature, warming of the ocean’s surface,
sea level rise, glacial ice melt, and depth of seasonal
permafrost thaw undeniably establishes that the Earth’s
climate is changing, uncertainty remains around the pace
and possible impacts of climate change in the UAE and the
Gulf region.
As the UAE works to build climate resilience, this report is
a step towards enhancing the understanding of projected
climatic changes in the UAE and the wider region, and
their potential impacts. It synthesizes available findings
and reviews published research in the field of climate
change pertaining to the region.2 The report aims to
identify knowledge gaps and provide guidance for further
locally relevant climate research.
2
While an attempt has been made to include major relevant research
studies and publications, the report is not intended to be exhaustive in its
coverage of published literature.
10
 Box 1: A Brief Introduction to Climate Models
The research findings cited in this report draw on a
wide set of studies that employ different climate
models. Climate models vary in design, complexity,
and function, depending on the purpose for which
they are developed, and the data, time, and
resources available. As models become more
complex, the number of calculations required to
simulate atmospheric and oceanic interactions
increases significantly (Bralower & Bice, 2021).
The simplest type of climate model, known as an
Energy Balance Model (EBM), is designed to
simulate the balance of solar energy entering the
Earth’s atmosphere and the escaping heat radiating
from the Earth. With a little more complexity, it is
possible to upgrade from an EBM to a Radiative
Convective Model (RCM), which also takes into
consideration the process of convection, and
transfer of heat and vapor vertically in different
layers of the atmosphere.
Further, for an in-depth understanding of the
climate, researchers General Circulation Models
(GCMs), also referred to as Global Climate Models.
These types of models also consider the physics of
the Earth’s climate, and the flow of air and water
along the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. GCMs,
unlike RCMs, operate along 3D grids, and all
calculations consider the exchange of properties in
between every grid cell to simulate the transfer of
energy, air, and water. As such, the smaller the grid
cells and higher the resolution, the higher the
number of calculations and computing time
required to complete the model’s simulation. For
added detail, an Earth System Model (ESM) is
employed, which is a GCM that captures intricate
systems such as the carbon cycle, nitrogen cycle,
GHG emissions, atmospheric chemistry, oceanic
processes, and vegetation (Goosse et al., 2008).
ECMs have received their name due to the building
of Earth systems and biochemical cycles
(interactions between biological organisms and
their environment) into GCMs (Flato et al., 2013).
ESMs are the most commonly used models for
climate change projections. To reduce
computational cost, it is possible to use an Earth
System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC),
which is a simplified and coarser form of an ESM
but more complex than an EBM. RCMs also fall
within the category of EMICs (Goosse et al., 2008).
As GCMs and ECMs must consider interactions
across the planet, the resolution of the models is
often low (~250-600km) (Data Distribution
Centre, 2021). To rectify this, it is possible to
develop and use an RCM, which works at a much
higher resolution. Typically, RCMs maintain a
resolution of a few to tens of kilometers per grid
box (Gutowski et al., 2020). As RCMs still need to
take into consideration changes in the climate
outside of the borders of the region, they are run in
coordination with GCMs. With downscaling, a
GCM is used to simulate global climate with the
resolution increased substantially over the region
of interest (Giorgi, 2019).
Over the years, it has become standard practice to
opt for ensemble models as a means to better
account for potential biases and deviations in
individual models (Pincus et al., 2008). Ensemble
modeling is a process of running multiple GCMs
and ECMs together, and averaging the results to
provide a more rounded impression of how the
climate is likely to change.
One final model type is the Weather Forecast
Model (WFM), which is primarily used for weather
projections in the short term but with a
significantly higher resolution and detail than its
climatological counterparts. Although WFMs are
not used for climate change-related projections,
they can be utilized in conjunction with GCMs
and ECMs to provide a seasonal analysis of future
climate (Aseh & Woma, 2013).
11
 Box 2: Modeling scenarios developed by the IPCC
IPCC’s SRES Socio-Economic Scenarios
Prior to the release of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5), research primarily focused on
climate modeling using the storylines and scenarios
presented in the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES) (2000). Each scenario family
represents a set of assumptions for how the future
could potentially change by 2100 (IPCC, 2000).
Classified as the A1, A2, B1, and B2 storylines and
scenario families, these describe the relationships
between emission-driving forces and their
evolution, and add context for scenario
quantification. Each storyline represents different
demographic, social, economic, technological, and
environmental developments, while each scenario
represents a specific quantitative interpretation of
one of the four storylines (IPCC, 2000).
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
In 2014, the IPCC released the AR5, which described
four different 21st-century pathways of GHG
emissions and atmospheric concentrations, air
pollutant emissions, and land use, known as
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
(IPCC, 2014). Different concentrations are
associated with radiative forcing increasing by a
certain amount by 2100. To account for a range of
potential emission scenarios, the forcing is set at
2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 watts per square meter (W m-2).
RCPs were developed using integrated assessment
models as input to a range of climate model
simulations in order to project their consequences
for the climate system. The scenarios are used to
assess the risks and costs associated with emission
reductions that are consistent with specific
pathways.
RCP2.6 is a stringent mitigation scenario that aims
to keep global average temperature rise to below
2°C above pre-industrial levels. RCP4.5 and RCP6.0
represent two intermediate scenarios, and RCP8.5
represents one with very high GHG emissions
(IPCC, 2014).
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)
In 2016, a new set of socio-economic scenarios was
developed to provide a replacement for the
outdated SRES scenarios, however, the
development is a very involved process, and
therefore the scenarios have not seen much use in
the early years. Nevertheless, with continuous
refinements, the shared socio-economic pathways
(SSPs) are now set to be integrated into the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)
in preparation for the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment
Report (AR6). The SSP scenarios, unlike the RCPs,
reintegrate how socio-economic changes and
initiatives can lead to different routes, which allows
researchers to consider both RCPs and SSPs as
complementary metrics for how the planet will
respond to changes in environmental forcing and
socio-economic changes. The five scenarios can be
broken down as seen in the infographic below
(Pinnegar et al., 2021).
12
3. Climate Projections for the
UAEUAE
and&the
theGulf
Gulf
The body of research on observed and projected climatic mathematical representations of the Earth’s climate
changes in the UAE and the region is limited yet growing. system, however, the system may ultimately prove to be
Existing literature on the subject relies on a variety of too complex to model accurately. Therefore, results from
modeling frameworks, reflecting the diversity of models climate models need to be validated or tested against real-
being employed globally to develop climate change world data to increase confidence in the projections
scenarios (Box 1). Global models are used primarily due to produced.
the interconnected and dynamic nature of the atmosphere
This section captures the main research findings on
and oceans. Current modeling studies mostly take into
historical records and trends as well as predictions of
account Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
climate-related changes in the future with a focus on the
that are defined on the basis of climate forcing. Box 2
following key parameters: temperature; rainfall; seawater
summarizes the three sets of scenarios/storylines developed
temperature, salinity, and pH; sea level rise; and extreme
by the IPCC.
weather events.3
The climate projections available for the UAE and the wider
Figure 1 summarizes key findings on climate variables
region that are included in this report result from a range of
most relevant to the region. Climate models largely project
different models, as indicated here. In essence, models are
hotter, drier, and less predictable climate.

3 This section draws on the report ‘Review of the Current Status of of researchers from the United Arab Emirates University in 2019.
Climate Change Modeling in the UAE and the Region’, prepared by a team

13
 Climate Projections for the UAE & the Region

Figure 1: Summary of modeled projections for different climate properties in the UAE and surrounding region

14
Temperature
Available field measurements confirm with certainty that
the average global temperature has increased over time.
The IPCC (2018) estimates that the global mean surface
temperature has increased by 1.0±0.2°C since pre-industrial
times, and predicts an increase of up to 1.5°C between
2030 and 2052.4 The number of hot days is projected to
increase in most land regions, with the highest increases in
the tropics. Estimated human-induced global warming is
currently increasing at 0.2°C (likely between 0.1°C and
0.3°C) per decade due to past and ongoing emissions. ‌
Complementing global research, a set of findings is
available for the UAE and the region. Figure 2 presents the
observed changes in UAE surface temperature relative to
1951-1980 average temperatures. The data was prepared
using the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit
(CRU) Time Series (TS) Version 4.01 archives, ranging from
4 Reflecting the long-term warming trend since pre-industrial times,
observed global mean surface temperature for the decade 2006-2015 was
0.87°C (likely between 0.75°C and 0.99°C) higher than the average over the
1850-1900 period (IPCC, 2018).
1901 to 2018. It is built on the basis of recorded
observations, Angular Distance Weighting (ADW)5, and
interpolation where appropriate (University of East Anglia
CRU, 2017). Based on the results illustrated in Figure 2,
recent temperature records of the UAE show an increase
of 2°C relative to 1950-1980. The results depict a rising
trend from 1910 to 1960, followed by a 30-year period of
roughly consistent average temperatures and subsequently
a sharper increase in temperatures from 1990 to 2018.
Figure 2b illustrates the R2 values for the periods prior to
and post-1980 to provide a statistical analysis of the
scatter of the points. The period post-1980 shows both a
steeper rise and a higher statistical significance, indicating
more intense warming. Figure 2C was prepared as a means
to analyze the influence of the warming on the varying
seasons, indicating an intensification of warming in the
summer months.
5 ADW is a common interpolation approach used to take an irregular
network of meteorological variables and apply them to a regular grid
(Hofstra & New, 2009).
15
 UAE Annual Recorded Temperatures (°C)
29.5 2.5
29 R² = 0.6598 2
28.5 1.5

Temperature Change (°C)

Relative to 1951-1980
28 1
Temperature (°C)

27.5 0.5
27 0
26.5 -0.5
26 -1
25.5 -1.5
25 -2
24.5 -2.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

UAE Annual Recorded Temperatures (°C)

29.5 2.5
29 2
R² = 0.6831
28.5 1.5

Temperature Change (°C)

R² = 0.3087

Relative to 1951-1980
28 1
Temperature (°C)

27.5 0.5
27 0
26.5 -0.5
26 -1
25.5 -1.5
25 -2
24.5 -2.5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year

UAE Decadal Temperature Comparison

37.0

35.0

33.0

31.0
Temperature (°C)

29.0

27.0

25.0

23.0

21.0

19.0

17.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Figure 2: Change in the UAE surface temperature relative to 1980-1951. In figures A and B, the left Y-axis represents the mean annual recorded temperature,
while the right Y-axis denotes how far each point deviates in relation to the 1980-1951 average benchmark. Figure C shows seasonal decadal temperatures.
The data used is available on the University of East Anglia CRU website (University of East Anglia CRU, 2017).

16
 Period Western Central & Eastern
UAE Northeastern UAE
UAE
2050 2.29-2.38°C 2.26-2.29°C 2.21-2.25°C
2100 3.80-3.91°C 3.73-3.79°C 3.64-3.72°C
Table 1: Summary of UAE temperature projections as presented in
Dougherty et al. (2009)
In terms of projections, the Stockholm Environment
Institute generated a set of results for the UAE using
Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced
Climate Change (MAGICC) and Regional Climate
SCENario GENerator (SCENGEN). The models developed
a regional climate baseline (1960-1991), and projected
regional temperature and rainfall (Dougherty et al., 2009).
A total of 17 GCMs were included in MAGICC/SCENGEN,
and 36 IPCC emission scenarios were developed, grouped
into four major categories: A1, B1, A2, and B2 (Box 2). The
projections are summarized in Table 1.
A study by AGEDI (2015a) utilized the Community Earth
System Model (CESM)6 of the US National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which indicated warmer
and wetter conditions throughout the Arabian Peninsula.
In comparison with the 1986-2005 baseline, by 2060-2079
under the RCP8.5 scenario, the predicted average future
temperature will increase by 2-3°C in the land area, with
slightly smaller increases projected for coastal areas. The
change is consistent across winter and summer seasons
(AGEDI, 2015a). In order to increase the resolution of the
model, AGEDI (2015a) employed the NCAR Weather
Research Forecast (WRF)7 model to dynamically downscale
the Community Climate System Model Ver. 4 (CCSM48).
Results indicated an annual cycle of temperature in the
Arabian Peninsula with a cold bias9 of less than 1°C in the
spring and early summer months, and a warm bias10 of
~3°C during autumn and winter months.11 In the AGEDI
study in particular, it is unclear what caused the cold bias
6 CESM is a fully coupled global climate model designed to provide
simulations of the Earth’s past, present, and future climate (NCAR, 2021).
7 WRF models are mesoscale numerical weather prediction systems
designed to operate for both atmospheric research and operational
forecasting due to their flexibility and the ability to use observations as
well as idealized conditions (UCAR, 2021).
8 CCSM4 is a subset of the CESM and is designed to run five separate
models simultaneously to simulate the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, land,
land ice, and sea ice. The model allows for simulations of the Earth’s past,
present, and future climate states (Vertenstein et al., 2010).
9 Modeled temperatures when compared with observed temperatures in
test years were found to be lower. This is identified by using the model to
project over a period where data was recorded and validating how close
the projections line up with the observations.
(projections for temperature underestimated the
recorded values), however, it may be attributed to a
positive rainfall bias during autumn and winter months.
The biases were accounted for using the bias-corrected
CCSM4 dataset to improve the WRF projections, which
was shown to provide realistic results when compared
with observations (AGEDI, 2015a).
The MENA region was further explored in a paper by
Bucchignani et al. (2018), using the Centro Euro-
Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici Climate Model
(CMCC-CM), a GCM, as the base, while regionally
downscaling for the MENA region using a regional model
developed by the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling
in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM13). Bucchignani et al.
(2018) reported an increase in temperature of 2.5°C in
winter months and 4°C in summer months under an
RCP4.5 scenario by 2100 in comparison with the 1979-
2005 baseline.
In a paper by Almazroui et al. (2016), an assessment of
the CMIP314 GCMs utilized in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report was conducted over the Arabian
Peninsula. The study was designed to identify how the
Arabian Peninsula was projected to be influenced by
climate change over the succeeding decades via an
examination of the ensemble of GCM data from the
CMIP3. The projections for the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios
show a temperature increase of 0.37°C (northern Arabian
Peninsula) and 0.35°C (southern Arabian Peninsula) per
decade in comparison with the 1970-1999 base period. It
was found that warming was more pronounced in the
summer season compared with the winter season over
the whole peninsula, however, the summer warming in
the northern Arabian Peninsula was found to exceed the
summer warming of the southern region. A similar study
was conducted the following year (Almazroui et al.,
2017) in an assessment of the projections of the ensemble
GCMs used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model
10 Modeled temperatures were warmer than observed temperatures in
test years.
11 Biases occur when a model overestimates or underestimates any
projections when its results are validated against observed data. They
need to be corrected to ensure that over-/underestimations are not
carried over into future projections.
12 CMCC-CM is a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model
(AOGCM) (Scoccimarro et al. 2011).
13 COSMO-CLM was developed as a hydrostatic model to produce
forecasts at a resolution where convection could be simulated (Steger &
Bucchignani, 2020)
14 CMIP3 is the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project, designed as an experimental protocol for the analysis of output
from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs).
17
Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) presented in the IPCC
Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The study analyzed
temperature trends for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.
A warming of 0.23°C and 0.60°C was projected per decade
in the northern Arabian Peninsula for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
respectively in comparison with the 1970-1999 base
period. In the southern Arabian Peninsula, warming was
slightly lower at 0.20°C and 0.53°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
Over the entire peninsula, the projections could be
summarized as a decadal warming of 0.22°C and 0.57°C
for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.
The CMIP5 ensemble modeling approach was further
utilized by the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of
Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-
Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR)
(ESCWA, 2017). RICCAR’s projections also made use of
the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios utilizing three of the
CMIP5’s GCMs. The models include the EC-EARTH15,
CNRM-CM516 , and GFDL-ESM217. The GCMs were used
to inform the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model
(RCA418) of atmospheric conditions outside of the region.
The RCA4 model has been incorporated over the domain
of the MENA region. The study took into consideration a
comparison of the reference period (1986-2005) against a
mid-term (2046-2065) and long-term projection (2081-
2100).
RICCAR’s projections evaluated annual and seasonal
trends in warming and identified a universal warming in
both scenarios. Projections show a warming of 1.2-1.9°C
for RCP4.5 and 1.5-2.3°C for RCP8.5 in the mid-term. By
the end of the century, projections revealed a warming of
1.7-2.6°C for RCP4.5 and 3.2-4.8°C for the RCP8.5 scenario.
It should be noted that the study included a seasonal
analysis of temperature trends, however, analysis had
indicated a cold bias, particularly in winter months, and a
Emirate/Area RCP4.5
Abu Dhabi 2.44°C
Al Ain 3.48°C
Sharjah 3.38°C
Table 2: Summary of projected warming by 2095 (Al Blooshi et al., 2019)
15 EC-EARTH – a GCM developed to utilize the seasonal prediction
configuration of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) as the base of the climate model (EC-Earth, 2021).
16 CNRM-CM5 – a GCM developed by the Centre National de Recherches
Météorologiques – Groupe d’études de l’Atmosphère Météorologique and
Cerfacs to contribute to the CMIP5 (Voldoire et al., 2013).
17 GFDL-ESM2 – the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Earth
System Model, upgraded to incorporate explicit and consistent carbon
warm bias in the summer in the southeastern region of
the Arabian Peninsula. These biases were corrected with
the use of the Distribution-Based Scaling (DBS19) method,
and the annual results have been derived from the
corrected values (ESCWA, 2017).
Using a similar set of RCP scenarios, in a paper by Al
Blooshi et al. (2019), temperature changes in three areas
spanning two UAE emirates were investigated using a
combination of 17 models as part of the MarkSimGCM
system. With a reference to the 1960-1990 base period,
the study examined the maximum projected
temperatures in Abu Dhabi, Al Ain (part of the Abu
Dhabi emirate), and Sharjah under the RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 scenarios. Readings for 2095 show a considerable
increase in temperature for the three emirates compared
to the baseline, extending up to 5.35°C for the RCP8.5
scenario in Sharjah. The results have been summarized in
Table 2.
Almazroui et al. (2020a) returned to the multi-model
ensemble of the CMIP5 in order to model temperature
changes in the Arabian Peninsula using 22 models over
three representative timeframes. The projections were
broken down to short-term (2030-2039), mid-term
(2060-2069), and long-term (2090-2099) for the RCP4.5
and RCP8.5 scenarios. The projections were further
broken down into seasonal analyses. The results of the
projections have been summarized in Table 3 and show
the increase in temperature relative to the 1971-2000
base period. Validation efforts on part of the research
indicated temperature biases in the summer and winter
seasons, whereas the spring and autumn projections
were more in line with observations. Annually, the
projected increase in temperature is highest in the
central region.
RCP8.5
4.56°C
4.74°C
5.35°C
dynamics (Dunne et al., 2012).
18 RCA4 – developed from the numerical weather prediction High-
Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) (ESCWA, 2017).
19 DBS is a bias correction method applied to climate models to improve
their suitability for climate impact assessment. DBS matches observed
and simulated frequency distributions of data, and applies a variable-
dependent theoretical distribution (Yang et al., 2010).
18
 Season Period RCP4.5 RCP8.5
2030-2039 1.472-1.790°C 1.695-2.125°C
Winter 2060-2069 2.254-2.934°C 3.620-4.156°C
2090-2099 2.551-2.895°C 5.206-5.582°C
2030-2039 1.258-1.718°C 1.493-1.969°C
Spring 2060-2069 2.289-2.667°C 3.499-3.811°C
2090-2099 2.592-2.892°C 5.224-5.734°C
2030-2039 1.489-1.831°C 1.723-2.109°C
Summer 2060-2069 2.413-2.761°C 3.484-4.178°C
2090-2099 2.779-2.959°C 5.684-6.072°C
2030-2039 1.504-1.896°C 1.689-2.203°C
Autumn 2060-2069 2.739-3.303°C 4.027-4.721°C
2090-2099 3.029-3.271°C 5.802-6.352°C
Table 3: Summary of seasonal temperature increase projections for the Arabian Peninsula in the short, mid, and long term for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios
(Almazroui et al., 2020)

Almazroui et al. (2020b) continued analysis of the CMIP however, some trends become apparent, including
multi-model datasets by exploring the sixth phase of the higher warming in summers compared to winters and a
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and higher degree of warming in the northern Arabian
the projected changes to temperature over the Arabian Peninsula in comparison with the South.
Peninsula. The updated analysis included an assessment
of the ensemble of 31 CMIP6 models under three new
shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs): SSP1, SSP2, and Precipitation
SSP5 (Box 2). A near-term period (2030-2059) and a far
Projected global trends suggest that as global surface
period (2070-2099) were taken into consideration and
temperatures increase, most wet tropical regions and
compared against the base period of 1981-2010. Results
mid-latitude land masses will experience a higher
over the peninsula under the projected timeframes and
intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events
scenarios have been summarized in Table 4. The results
(IPCC, 2014a). Rainfall is often harder to model and
have also indicated increased projected warming in the
predict than temperature. Depending on the initial
summers compared to winters and additional warming in
assumptions a model is set up to use, rainfall projections
the northern Arabian Peninsula compared with the
for a region often vary widely.
southern region by 2100.
For the purposes of this report, a primary assessment of
Across research studies, there is a consensus on an
observed changes in rainfall in the UAE was undertaken.
increase in average temperatures in the Arab region. This
Data spanning the period 1982-2017, available with the
increase becomes more pronounced in high-emission
UAE’s National Center of Meteorology, was utilized, and
scenarios and the further the results extend into the
the available records of six main rainfall stations in the
future. The degree of warming varies from study to study,
UAE, including the international airports of Abu Dhabi,

Period SSP1 SSP2 SSP5

2030-2059 1.2-1.9°C 1.4-2.1°C 1.8-2.7°C
2070-2099 1.2-2.1°C 2.3-3.4°C 4.1-5.8°C
Table 4: Projected warming in the Arabian Peninsula based on an assessment of the 31 CMIP6 models (Almazroui et al., 2020b)

19
 1800 1800

1600 Rainfall Recorded at UAE Airports Since 1982 1600

1400
Abu Dhabi 1400
Total Rainfall (mm)

1200 1200
Dubai
1000 1000
Sharjah
800 800
Ras Al Khaimah
600 600

400 400

200 200

0 0
1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017
Year

Figure 3: Historical rainfall trends recorded at six airport weather stations in the UAE (collected by the National Center for Meteorology)

Al Ain, Dubai, Sharjah, Fujairah, and Ras Al Khaimah, were AGEDI (2015a) reports that according to CCSM4
considered (Figure 3). The graph shows that rainfall in the simulations as run for the IPCC AR5, for the period 1986-
UAE does not exhibit a clear increasing or decreasing 2005, daily precipitation in the Arabian Peninsula stood
trend over the years, even though post-1999, it does not at 0.5 mm/day and has been projected to increase by
appear to spike as high as during some of the previous ~0.1 mm/day by 2100. AGEDI’s work on regional climate
years. Nevertheless, the short timeframe implies that modeling, downscaled from the CESM (which includes
there is not enough evidence to conclude if the observed the CCSM4), indicated that rainfall is projected to
changes in rainfall patterns can be attributed to climate increase over much of the UAE and the Hajar Mountains
change or to natural variations and cyclical patterns. (AGEDI, 2015a). By 2060-2079 for the RCP8.5 scenario,
AGEDI projects an increase of 50-100% from the baseline
Basha et al. (2015) investigated precipitation trends in the of 1986-2005 for parts of Dubai, Sharjah, and northern
UAE using a stochastic model (allowing for fluctuations in Abu Dhabi. The surrounding regions are expected to
historical data) and reported rainfall projections. It was witness a rainfall increase of about 25% (AGEDI, 2015a20).
shown that post-1960, precipitation exhibits an oscillatory Decreasing rainfall is predicted over much of Oman and
trend, whereby rainfall increases for a 20-year period and eastern Saudi Arabia. An increase in rainfall is predicted
declines over the next 20, continuing to follow this pattern. over the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Additionally,
Rainfall in the UAE was projected to continue to decrease according to AGEDI’s analysis, while the increase over the
post-2015 to a minimum in 2035 and then increase Arabian Gulf waters occurs during the winter season, in
thereafter. With rainfall trends following a 20-year pattern, the UAE, the increase in rainfall during the summertime
it would be difficult to identify the influence of climate is larger than the increase during the winter period in
change on rainfall in the region without a rainfall dataset both absolute value and percentage change (AGEDI,
for a longer duration. 2015a).
While focused on a small geographical area, based on the The AGEDI (2015a) analysis also projects that more rain
results of a culmination of 36 IPCC models grouped into will fall in general but in fewer rain events. Despite the
the A1, B1, A2, and B2 scenarios, the range of precipitation projected increase in rainfall over much of the UAE, the
change for the Abu Dhabi emirate was projected to be number of wet days is projected to decrease. Rain events
between -21.20% and +10.33% for 2050 and between will be more intense when it does rain, however, there
-37.8% and +18.4% for 2100, relative to the 1961-1990 will be a higher tendency towards longer dry spells. This
annual average (Dougherty et al, 2009). is primarily due to the influence of warming of the air.
Warmer air can hold more moisture, and hence it would

20 AGEDI notes that the CCSM4 model projects wetter conditions for the regional results may also overestimate rainfall.
Arabian Peninsula as compared to the ensemble of the CMIP5. Therefore,

20
take more evaporation for the air to reach its vapor-
carrying capacity and for condensation to occur. When it
does rain, the added moisture will result in more extreme
rain events (Patz et al., 2014).
The AGEDI study extends into humidity projections as
well and identifies that changes in humidity are expected
to be greater in summer months, associated with higher
evaporation due to warming temperatures. Humidity is
projected to increase by about 10% over the Arabian Gulf
under the RCP8.5 scenario, with a slightly lower increase
in humidity in most parts of the UAE (AGEDI, 2015a).
Almazroui et al. (2016) assessed the CMIP3 GCMs utilized
in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report to identify how
the precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula would alter
over time. The projections for the B1, A1B, and A2
scenarios showcase that the changes in precipitation will
not be uniform across the entirety of the region.
Projections across all three scenarios show a decrease in
precipitation of 1.35% per decade in the northern Arabian
Peninsula with reference to the 1970-1999 base period. In
contrast, the southern Arabian Peninsula shows a decadal
increase in precipitation of +1.21%. A similar study was
conducted the following year (Almazroui et al., 2017)
using the CMIP5 projections as part of the IPCC’s Fifth
Assessment Report under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
scenarios. Projections displayed trends similar to the 2016
study with respect to precipitation in the northern and
southern regions of the Arabian Peninsula. The results
showed a decadal decrease in precipitation over the
northern Arabian Peninsula of -1.18% and -0.14% for the
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. In contrast, the
southern Arabian Peninsula showed a decadal increase in
precipitation of +0.34% and +2.99% for the RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 scenarios. On an average, the entire Arabian
Peninsula was projected to experience a trend of -0.27%
and +2% in precipitation for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
scenarios respectively per decade.
The precipitation results from Almazroui et al. (2017)
were in agreement with projections of the Regional
Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts
on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in
21 The ITCZ represents a belt of warm, rising air and converging winds
found near the equator. The warm, rising air develops thick cloud activity,
the Arab Region (RICCAR) (ESCWA et al., 2017). RICCAR’s
projections also made use of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
scenarios and ensemble modeling, however, only three of
the CMIP5’s GCMs were utilized as part of the report.
The study compared the reference period (1986-2005)
with a mid-term (2046-2065) and a long-term projection
(2081-2100). The results of the RICCAR study (ESCWA et
al., 2017) show that precipitation changes vary across
different parts of the MENA region, and therefore no
conclusive results can be drawn on average annual or
seasonal changes across the region. As such, the use of a
mean, annual change in rainfall over the MENA region
would be misleading, as there are more pronounced
changes in localized areas. Over the Arab region, both
RCP scenarios show a decrease in monthly precipitation
in the mid-term and an overall monthly decrease of up
to 8-10mm by the end of the century in coastal regions
near the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. On the other hand,
further south, some regions have been projected to
experience an increase in precipitation, which includes
the southeastern Arabian Peninsula. This could be
attributed to the potential shift in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ21), which has been suggested to
migrate further northwards in response to a warming
climate (ESCWA et al., 2017).
In a paper published two years later, Al Blooshi et al.
(2019) made use of an ensemble modeling approach to
investigate precipitation changes over three areas
spanning two of the UAE’s emirates, using the
MarkSimGCM as a means to utilize the combination of
the 17 models embedded within it. The study made use
of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Readings for 2095
show a general trend towards an increase in precipitation,
however, the trends are not uniform over the study area.
The results are summarized in Table 5.
RCP4.5 RCP8.5
Abu Dhabi +3.28 mm -0.92 mm
Al Ain +0.14 mm +1.12 mm
Sharjah +1.90 mm +2.32 mm
Table 5: Summary of projections for precipitation changes by 2095 (Al
Blooshi et al., 2019)
rainfall, and frequent thunderstorms (Schneider et al., 2014).
21
Almazroui et al. (2020b) conducted an assessment of an
ensemble of 31 CMIP6 models and their projections for
precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula. The study
incorporated the new SSPs (Box 2) that are due to
supersede RCPs in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report
(AR6). The scenarios considered include SSP1, SSP2, and
SSP5 with projections into the near term (2030-2059) and
long term (2070-2099) in comparison with the 1981-2010
base period. Results over the Arabian Peninsula under all
considered scenarios and timeframes have been
summarized in Table 6. The researchers have also noted
that the results show a robust increase in the mean annual
precipitation over the southern Arabian Peninsula with a
decrease in the North.
Period SSP1 SSP2 SSP5
2030-2059 5-28% 5-31% 1-38%
2070-2099 -3-29% 4-49% 12-107%
Table 6: Projections of precipitation changes in the Arabian Peninsula
on the basis of an assessment of the 31 CMIP6 models (Almazroui et al.,
2020b)
Notably, in recent years, the UAE has embarked on cloud
seeding as part of its rainfall enhancement program (Breed
et al., 2005). It is difficult to determine how much of the
observed rainfall in recent years can be attributed to cloud
seeding; concomitantly, a comparison between recent
observations and previous records may not lead to accurate
trends.
Overall, precipitation projections over the region have
been shown to be more dynamic and sporadic than
temperature projections. The majority of studies
undertaken suggest that identifying precipitation patterns
over the region would not provide an accurate
representation of changes, as climate change’s influence on
precipitation is more localized and not uniform across the
region. Projections across the northern and southern
Peninsula vary. Research also suggests that it is likely that
the region will witness a decrease in rain frequency with an
increase in intensity.
Seawater – Temperature, Salinity & pH
Under the influence of a warming climate, seawater
properties have registered change, and will continue to do
so. Over the course of the 21st century, the ocean is
projected to witness unprecedented conditions
characterized by increased temperatures, greater upper
ocean stratification, and further acidification (IPCC, 2019).
Oceans are regarded as buffers, and unlike the atmosphere,
natural changes in seawater temperature, acidity, and
salinity (with the exception of estuaries) occur gradually
and with minor shifts. Aquatic organisms are not well-
suited to cope with large shifts: findings from laboratory,
field, and modeling studies, in addition to evidence from
geological records, indicate that “marine ecosystems are
highly susceptible to increases in oceanic CO2 and the
corresponding decreases in pH and carbonate ion” (IPCC,
2013). Climate-induced changes are therefore likely to put
these organisms at increased risk. Moreover, changes of
larger magnitude are more likely to occur as the ocean’s
ability to buffer weakens with constant pressure from
climate change.
Sea Surface Temperature & Salinity
Since 1970, the ocean has warmed unabated and has
stored more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate
system (IPCC, 2019). With ocean warming being the
largest near the surface, over the period 1971-2010, the
upper 75 m warmed by 0.11°C (between 0.09 and 0.13°C)
per decade (IPCC, 2014a). Global projections drawn from
the CMIP5 indicate a rise in global sea surface temperature
of 0.8°C by 2050 and 1.2°C by 2100, relative to 1870-1899
temperatures for RCP2.6; and a rise of 1.5°C by 2050 and
3.2°C by 2100, relative to the same time period, for RCP8.5
(IPCC, cited in Foresight, 2017).
For the Arabian Gulf, Shirvani et al. (2015) reported that
the Gulf water temperatures have warmed by about
0.57°C during the 1950-2010 period. Readings were
calculated using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) model. Although a significant trend was
not evident for the 1950-1969 and 1970-1989 periods, the
Arabian Gulf sea surface temperatures have abruptly
increased thereafter. There is an increase in sea surface
22
temperature by 0.7°C/decade along the western side of the
Gulf with reference to the 1950-2006 period used to
develop the model and the 2007-2011 period used to test
the model.
Piontkovski and Queste (2016) investigated changes to the
physical and biochemical properties of the upper 300 m of
the western Arabian Gulf, using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
database22 with records spanning 1950-2010. The results
made use of the same timeframe as Shirvani et al. (2015)
but expanded on the research by introducing the
component of depth to seawater temperature changes.
Piontokovski and Queste (2016) identified a decadal
increase in surface water temperatures of 0.6°C in the
western Arabian Gulf in the mixed layer (upper ~30 m)
with a slightly lower value of ~0.4°C at depth (300 m).
Further, in terms of future trends, Noori et al. (2019)
investigated the influence of climate change on the Arabian
Gulf and the Gulf of Oman under the RCP8.5 scenario.
Projections considered warming by 2030, 2050, 2070, and
2100 in comparison with the control period of 2016-2018.
The projection was calculated based on historical changes
in regional sea surface temperature and with the use of a
Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD23) model. An
annual assessment of the results showed that the north
coast of the UAE and south coast of the Strait of Hormuz
will experience the greatest warming by 2100, reaching
temperatures of up to 32°C. For comparison, the mean
Arabian Gulf seawater temperature is projected to rise
from 28.5°C in 2015 to 30.7°C in 2100, while maximum
temperatures are set to rise from 29.9°C in 2015 to 31.8°C in
2100. Additionally, for each of the projected years, the
maximum projected increase in temperature in the
Arabian Gulf was found to be 2.1°C (May 2030), 2.8°C (May
2050), 3.4°C (August 2070), and 4.3°C (August 2100) (Noori
et al., 2019).
The results had also indicated that warming will be more
intense during the summer season in both the Arabian
Gulf and Gulf of Oman, which falls well in line with the
atmospheric temperature projections that also show an
intensification of summertime warming by the end of the
century (Almazroui et al., 2020a, 2020b; Al Blooshi et al,
2019; Bucchignani et al., 2018).
Notably, under warming conditions posed by climate
22 Climate reanalysis is the process of collecting records of past
observations and using a model to fill in the gaps in the records to provide
a more comprehensive and consistent rendition of the historical climate.
change, marine life is not well-adapted to adjust. Adverse
impacts may include a decrease in the body size of
ectotherms (Audzijonyte et al., 2020) and thermal
bleaching of corals (Burt et al., 2019; Paparella et al., 2019).
In addition to seawater warming, climate-related changes
in ocean properties include shifts in salinity. According to
the IPCC, it is very likely that regional precipitation trends
have increased the mean geographical contrasts in sea
surface salinity since the 1950s: “saline surface waters in
evaporation-dominated mid-latitudes have become more
saline, while relatively fresh surface waters in rainfall-
dominated tropical and polar regions have become
fresher” (Rhein et al., 2013). Increased evaporation with
rising temperatures also leads to changes in salinity.
Understanding changes in ocean salinity is critical not only
as an indicator of precipitation/evaporation over the
ocean but also because salinity changes affect circulation
and stratification, in turn impacting the ocean’s biological
productivity, in addition to its capacity to store heat and
carbon (Rhein et al., 2013).
In the Arabian Gulf, salinity is likely to increase due to the
increase in evaporation with the warming atmosphere.
Additionally, it is expected that the expansion of seawater
desalination facilities will increase the already high level of
salinity. AGEDI (2015b, 2015c) reported that with climate
change, the Arabian Gulf will become even more stressed,
with significant increases in temperature across the Gulf,
coupled with zones of large salinity increases.
Acidity (pH)
With increased concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere,
another important change in seawater properties includes
ocean acidification or a decrease in seawater pH due to the
ocean’s increased sequestration of atmospheric CO2
content. The ocean has taken up 20-30% of anthropogenic
CO2 emissions since the 1980s, leading to acidification
(IPCC, 2019). Since the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution in the early 1800s, the pH of surface ocean
waters has fallen by 0.1 units, however, despite the small
value, pH units operate on a logarithmic scale, and a pH
decrease of 0.1 constitutes an increase in acidity of ~30%
(NOAA, 2020b). Open ocean surface pH has declined by a
very likely range of 0.017-0.027 pH units per decade since
23 A POD model is a numerical method applied to reduce the complexity
of computationally intensive simulations, such as those in fluid dynamics
(Luo & Chen, 2018).
23
the late 1980s (IPCC, 2019).
Investigation of trends based on data gathered on the
western Arabian Sea from oceanographic expeditions and
remote sensing for the period 1950-2010 has indicated a
decrease in pH by roughly 0.1 in the upper 30 m of the
western Arabian Gulf between 1960-2000 (Piontkovski &
Queste, 2016). The drop in pH was more pronounced at
depth (300 m) with a decrease of 0.2 in the same 40-year
span on the basis of pH measurements taken over a four-
year period (2007-2010).
Sea Level Rise
Sea levels are expected to rise due to a number of factors,
including thermal effects and deglaciation (Pardaens et al.,
2011). Deglaciation is generally caused by ice melting and
the transfer of huge amounts of ice to the water body of
oceans. The melting of ice represents a major contribution
towards sea level rise (Rignot et al., 2011). The thermal
effect is attributed to the expansion of water with the
increase in temperature: the water bodies of oceans and
seas act as sinks of heat, and hence the water expands,
occupying more space (McKay et al., 2011). Notably, there
is a time lag between the change in temperature and sea
level rise, as the water body continues to absorb heat for a
long period after the stabilization of air temperature
(Gregory & Oerlemans, 1998).
According to Lindsey (2020), based on the data captured
by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), sea levels rose by 1.4 mm/year over most of the
20th century, and the process accelerated to 3.6 mm/year
as per 2006-2015 data.
When considering future projections, modeling sea level
rise requires the use of coupled ice-atmosphere-ocean
general circulation models. IPCC (2018) model-based
projections of global mean sea level rise (relative to 1986-
2005) suggest an indicative range of 0.26 to 0.77 m by 2100
for 1.5°C of global warming, and 0.36-0.88 m for 2°C. The
following year, the IPCC (2019) projected a higher increase
of 0.61-1.1 m by 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Sea levels
will continue to rise well beyond 2100, and the magnitude
and rate of this rise will depend on future emission pathways.
With respect to the rate of growth, a recent study
24 The ICE5-G v1.2 VM4 is an ice sheet reconstruction glacial isostatic
model, used to adjust relative sea level variations to account for the
redistribution of mass on the planet that accompanied deglaciation (Jet
Propulsion Laboratory – California Institute of Technology, 2021).
conducted by Nerem et al. (2018) revealed that global
sea level rise is accelerating incrementally over time
rather than increasing at a steady rate. The accelerated
rate of sea level rise lowers opportunities for adaptation
in human and ecological systems. The study is based on
25 years of NASA and European satellite data. Results
show that since 1993, global mean sea level has been
rising by ~3±0.04 mm/year, however, using the data
coupled with considerations for interannual and decadal
variability, the rate of sea level rise was shown to be
accelerating by 0.084 ±0.025 mm/year2 as calculated
using the 25 years of data. In other words, sea levels have
been shown to be rising by slightly more every year
compared with the previous year. With the use of
extrapolation, readings implied global mean sea level
could rise by 650±120 mm by 2100 compared with 2005
sea levels if the rate of ocean rise continues to change at
the current pace. It has also been suggested that had the
rate of rise remained consistent at 3 mm/year, the global
sea level would only rise by roughly half of what is
currently projected for 2100 (Nerem et al., 2018). The
results are in line with the projections shared by the IPCC
(2018) AR5 report and hovering at the lower end of the
projected range of sea level rise in the IPCC (2019) Special
Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing
Climate.
When considering more regional-scale research on sea
level rise, a paper by Alothman and Ayhan (2010)
summarizes the results of a study that takes into account
in-situ tide gauge data in the Arabian Gulf as well as Global
Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements.
Thirteen tide gauge stations were selected along the
eastern coasts of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain with data
spanning 11-26 years where available in an effort to utilize
the stations with the longest records of data. Given that
tidal gauge data alone would provide a poor representation
of the changing sea levels due to the influence of other
factors, the authors have made use of the ICE-5G v1.2 VM4
Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model24 as a means to
correct for contamination by vertical land motion. To
further correct for crustal motion25, the authors included
the weekly GPS time series for the vertical component
measured at the Mina Sulman (Bahrain) IGS-GPS station
from 1998 to 2008. The calculations hence operate under
25 Crustal motion refers to deformations and movement of the
continental crust as a result of tectonic activity.
24
the assumption that all other stations within the scope of a relative sea level rise of 2.2±0.5 mm/year had taken
the study experienced similar vertical components as those place over the period of 1979-2007. However, after
calculated at Mina Sulman. Table 7 presents the measured factoring in the vertical land motion derived from the
change in relative sea level with the use of raw tidal gauge subsidence of six GPS stations within a 100 km radius of
data after correcting for the GIA and GPS. the tide gauge stations, the absolute sea level rise was
found to reach 1.5±0.8 mm/year in the western Arabian
The authors focused their analysis on the four stations
Gulf. The authors have stated that there was no evidence
with records spanning 20+ years in an effort to provide
of significant progressive acceleration of sea level rise
the best estimates. Table 7 shows the selected stations in
over the years. Alothman et al. (2017) investigated three
orange (Column 1). Based on the results of the multiple
new stations for analysis – KUHR, KUWT, and RASZ –
stations after corrections, the average rate of sea level rise
however, the additional data did not influence the results
in the west Arabian Gulf was computed to reach
obtained in Alothman et al. (2014). The corrected results
~2.42±0.21 mm/year. It must be noted that variance in
presented by Alothman et al. (2014) at 1.5±0.5 mm/year
sea level records as shown in Table 7 could be attributed
are also in close alignment with the global results for the
to fluctuations based on seasonal shifts and pressure
20th century presented in Lindsey (2020), with results
systems among other atmospheric and oceanographic
reaching 1.4 mm/year.
interferences.
In the UAE, there were initial efforts to measure sea levels
In 2014, a follow-up paper (Alothman et al., 2014) was
prior to 1971, with the Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore
released, making use of a larger range of years spanning
Oil Operations operating a tidal gauge at Jebel Dhanna
1979-2007 for a set of seven coastal tide gauges. These
between 1963 and 1966. The data from this gauge is
include the four from the previous study in addition to
publicly available but has its limitations, as the stored
three stations that were previously not considered in the
data has not been reviewed for quality (PSMSL, 2020). In
final analyses. Table 7 highlights the original four stations
addition to the stations shared in Table 7, several tide
in orange and the three additional stations in green
gauges and GPS stations have been used to estimate
(Column 1). Utilizing the seven stations, it was found that
changes in sea level since 1979. Dubai currently operates
six automated tide gauges at Mina Seyahi, Jumeirah
Alothman & Alothman et al. Beach Hotel, Shindagha, Dubai Festival City, Jebel Ali, and
Ayhan (2010) (2014) Mamzar. These gauges provide observations dating back
Station Name to 2004, however, tidal data alone would not be a reliable
Relative Sea Level Relative Sea Level
Rise (mm/year) Rise (mm/year) measure of sea level changes, and despite the availability
Mina Sulman 3.68 2.97 ± 0.51 of data in recent years, appropriate data correction
measures are yet to be undertaken with the use of
Abu Ali Pier 2.20 1.18 ± 0.63
appropriate models for stations bordering the UAE.
Ras Tanura 2.31 0.74 ± 1.11
Juaymah Pier 2.47 1.29 ± 0.73 Further work is needed to understand the extent of sea
level rise in the Arabian Gulf and the projected increase.
Qurayyah Pier 3.75 2.00 ± 0.99
Overall, the modeled projections agree that sea levels
Tanajib Pier 5.05 2.97 ± 1.73
may rise over the coming decades, with an acceleration
Safaniya Pier 3.88 2.85 ± 0.80
in the speed of the rise as deglaciation increases.

Table 7: Summary of the corrected tidal gauge station results, prepared by

Alothman and Ayhan (2010). The sea level rise takes into consideration
both the GIA and crustal motion adjustments. The final column Extreme Weather Events
summarizes the relative sea level results from Alothman et al. (2014). The
stations in orange were used in both studies for the final analysis, while the The devastating impacts of extreme weather events and
ones in green were only used in the 2014 study. The 2014 results do not
include elevated land corrections. All stations were selected due to having climate extremes make them a subject of serious public
+20 years of recorded data. and policy concern. At the same time, the investigation

25
of extreme weather events and their relation to climate significant increasing trends over the Arabian Peninsula.
change and spatial variability is one of the most The study reported that a remarkable increase in very
challenging areas in climate research and future climate warm nights was seen during the period 1986-2008 in
predictions. The challenges associated with severe particular. With higher average temperatures projected
weather event modeling and research include inadequacy for the region, episodes of extreme temperatures are
of historical records, limitations in statistical and other likely to become more frequent in the future.
tools used to analyze observed changes in extremes, and
Similarly, with regard to cyclonic activity, based on an
limitations in the understanding of weather processes
analysis of monthly cyclonic storm days and accumulated
(Zwiers et al., 2013). Despite these inherent challenges,
cyclone energy (ACE), Evan and Camargo (2011)
research on extreme weather events as well as their
conclude that starting in the early 1990s, there has been
attribution to climate change has been an integral
an increase in the number, duration, and intensity of
component of global climate studies (Alexander et al.,
Arabian Sea cyclones. Figure 4 presents the yearly time
2006; Bador et al., 2015; Bellprat et al., 2019; Doblas-Reyes
series and monthly scatterplot of ACE over the Arabian
et al., 2013; Herring et al., 2014; Kundeti et al., 2015;
Sea for the period 1979-2008 (Evan & Camargo, 2011).
Sheffield et al., 2012; Trenberth et al., 2015; amongst
Murakami et al. (2017) applied a suite of high-resolution
others). Extreme weather research has primarily focused
global coupled model experiments to simulate the
on statistical theory underpinning extreme value analysis,
climatological distribution of extremely severe cyclonic
detection and attribution of observed changes in the
storms, concluding that it is likely that anthropogenic
frequency and/or intensity of extremes, and the
forcing has increased the probability of late-season
identification of the cause(s) of events and the physical
cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea since pre-industrial
mechanisms that are involved in amplifying and/or
times.
extending the duration of specific extreme events, such as
heat waves. While the observed late-season storms of 2014 and 2015
were attributed to stochastic processes, the research
The IPCC notes that changes in extreme weather and
showed that the role of natural variability in the observed
climate events have been observed since 1950. A decrease
increase in storms was minimal, and increased human-
in cold temperature extremes, increase in warm
induced forcing will heighten the risk of cyclones, making
temperature extremes, rise in sea levels, and increase in
these events more frequent and severe (Murakami et al.,
the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of
2017). Tropical cyclone events, such as Phet and Gonu
regions are some of the changes that have been linked to
that impacted the Arabian Peninsula in 2007 and 2010
human influences (IPCC, 2014a). The IPCC also concludes
respectively, are predicted to continue to propagate
that it is very likely that in the future, heat waves will
(UNDP, 2018). Strong winds are also likely to raise more
occur more often and last longer, and that many regions
dust, posing greater risks from sand and dust storms, and
will experience an increase in the intensity and frequency
affecting concentrations of particulate matter in the air
of extreme precipitation events (IPCC, 2014a).
(Hergersberg, 2016).
The available literature provides initial insights into past
Another study developed a global hail hazard algorithm
trends as well as projections for the UAE and the region.
based on hail observations in the US, and tested its
AlSarmi and Washington (2014) report a consistent
performance over the US, Australia, and Europe, relying
pattern of trends in daily temperature extremes over the
on data for the period 1979-2015. Four key predictors,
Arabian Peninsula during 1943-2008 that is related to
including atmospheric instability, freezing level height,
significant warming, with cold extremes decreasing and
0-3 km wind shear, and storm-relative helicity (SRH)26,
warm extremes increasing. The average yearly maximum
allow discrimination of large hail frequencies on a
temperatures, average yearly minimum temperatures,
regional scale, and the research utilizes these variables to
highest yearly minimum temperatures, as well as highest
develop a hail algorithm, which provides probabilities for
yearly maximum temperatures all had statistically
large hail occurrence from regional to global scales and

26 SRH refers to the potential for a right-moving supercell to develop above the ground (Thompson et al., 2003).
cyclonic updraft rotation. SRH is calculated for the lowest 3-1 km layers

26
Figure 4: Annual time series (top) and monthly scatterplot of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in nautical miles per hour (kt2) over the Arabian Sea for
the period 2008-1979. The ACE (at the bottom) is indicated by the fill color in each circle (Evan & Camargo, 2011).
from daily to climate timescales. The study identified the
mountains of the Arabian Peninsula (UAE and Oman) as
a hotspot for hailstorms at present (Prein & Holland,
2018).
4. Sectoral Impacts of Climate
Change
Change
The climatic changes being already observed, and those
being projected for the near and long term, have
attendant impacts. A comparison of projected changes in
climate characteristics and impacts between a warming
scenario of 1.5°C and 2°C reveals significantly higher risks
with incremental changes in temperature (IPCC, 2018).
According to the IPCC (2014b), in urban areas, climate
change is projected to “increase risks for people, assets,
economies, and ecosystems”. These include risks from
heat stress, extreme precipitation, floods and droughts,
sea level rise, storm surges, and landslides (IPCC, 2014b).
Even while knowledge gaps remain in climate data and
research focused on the UAE and the Gulf region, trends
in temperature, precipitation, and seawater properties
can be discerned. These changes in the UAE and the Gulf
region’s climate will lead to a range of impacts on critical
sectors, including energy, infrastructure, health,
agriculture, and the environment. A review of literature
suggests that research on climate risks and impacts in the
region remains scarce. The Gulf countries have made a
start in assessing risks and associated impacts, and
defining adaptation action plans to address them. As
part of its National Climate Change Adaptation Program,
the UAE has undertaken climate risk assessments for four
priority sectors: energy, infrastructure, health, and the
environment. Led by the UAE Ministry of Climate Change
and Environment, the assessments are informed by
available data, extensive research, and stakeholder
consultations. The UAE Sectoral Climate Risk Assessment
Framework incorporates a multi-step process, including
stocktaking of climate trends and sectoral issues,
identification of potential sectoral impacts, evaluation of
the magnitude and likelihood of impacts, assessment
and prioritization of risks, and identification of potential
adaptation actions.
27
This section captures sectoral risks and impacts relevant for
the UAE and the region. It draws, in part, from the work
undertaken as part of the National Climate Change
Adaptation Program.27 Figure 5 summarizes the key
sectoral impacts.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure facing risks from climate change includes
buildings, transport links, energy assets, desalination
plants, water supply lines, and sanitation and waste
management facilities. Changes in sea levels, and seawater
acidity and salinity will especially affect coastal and
offshore infrastructure.
Air, land, and water transport systems, including roads,
rails, runways, waterways, and traffic facilities, may see
damage and/or deterioration due to rising temperature,
possible changes in seawater acidity and salinity, sea level
rise, and extreme weather events, including sandstorms.
High temperatures may cause roads and pavements to
soften and expand, and rail tracks to buckle (US EPA,
2016). Occurrence of sandstorms and fog may impact
visibility, and therefore safety of all modes of travel. Air
and maritime transport are particularly vulnerable to
changes in average weather conditions – wind direction
and speeds, and storm surges at sea, respectively.
In the same vein, energy infrastructure, such as power
plants and transmission lines, may be damaged by climatic
changes, causing disruptions in power supply. Also,
extreme conditions and high variability may push the
operational capacity of power facilities and equipment
beyond thresholds.28
According to the risk assessment undertaken as part of
the National Climate Change Adaptation Program,
impacts that pose a high level of risk to the energy sector
based on their magnitude and likelihood include the
following: energy efficiency losses in power plants when
temperatures exceed standard design criteria, reduced
power output due to warmer cooling water in plants, and
deterioration of power facilities leading to reduced
reliability and increased maintenance costs.
27 Sectoral reports for the UAE are available at https://www.moccae.gov.
ae/en/knowledge-and-statistics/climate-change.aspx
28 For instance, the turbine power output and efficiency of thermal power
plants may be affected by variations in ambient temperature and humidity
– an increase in temperature raises the air specific volume, increasing
energy consumption in the compressor and reducing the amount of net
energy generated in each cycle (Schaeffer et al., 2012). The quantity and
Water-related infrastructure, i.e. desalination plants,
dams, and reservoirs, faces climate risks that may result
in disruptions in water supply. The Gulf region houses
more than half of the world’s seawater desalination
capacity (ESCWA, 2019). Desalination plants are at
physical risk from changes in seawater properties and
levels, and also find their operations impacted by
seawater temperature rise and higher salinity. Brine
discharge from these plants interacts with climate-
induced changes, exacerbating the situation. Further,
sanitation and wastewater management facilities are at
risk from extreme precipitation events and seawater
inundation, with resultant impacts on public amenities
and health.
Climate change is also likely to cause damage to and
deterioration of building infrastructure, including public
and private residential, commercial, and industrial
facilities, impacting reliability and safety of buildings,
their durability, and real estate value. The design,
construction, and retrofitting of buildings will need to
take into account imminent and projected risks (while
reducing buildings’ emissions). During the operational
phase, space conditioning requirements and patterns of
energy use are likely to see changes.
The Gulf region’s coastline is home to extensive
infrastructure, including power and desalination plants;
oil and gas platforms, rigs, and pipelines; ports and
harbor facilities; and communication cables. Maritime
activity is a vital part of the Gulf countries’ economies,
with trade and shipping, sea-based travel and tourism,
and coastal and offshore energy and water infrastructure
development as essential and thriving sectors. Increased
air and sea temperatures, sea level rise and shoreline
retreat, episodes of high salinity, seawater acidification,
and more frequent and intense storm surges pose risks to
existing infrastructure and planned projects.
For the energy sector, the occurrence of weather
extremes is also relevant as a determinant of demand for
space conditioning. Hotter summers and increased
demand for cooling in the Arabian Peninsula will require
enhancement of energy infrastructure as well as
improved peak demand management.
quality of water supply may impact steam cycle-based thermal generation
as well as nuclear plants that require cooling water (Farouk et al., 2013;
Schaeffer et al., 2012). The capacity and reliability of power transmission
lines too may be affected by rising temperatures and extreme weather
events (Schaeffer et al., 2012), calling for transmission and distribution
assets and facilities to be adapted and upgraded for the changing climate.
28
 Summary of Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change
Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change in the UAE
in the UAE

• Damage to coastal and offshore • Damage to and deterioration of

infrastructure buildings
Infrastructure

• Reduced safety and loss of • Physical and operational disruptions

business opportunities due to in desalination infrastructure
transport infrastructure damage • Physical and operational disruptions
and disruptions in sanitation and drainage facilities
• Reduced efficiency and • Increased infrastructure
reliability of energy maintenance costs
infrastructure

• Increased heat-related • Higher incidence of respiratory

Public Health

morbidity and mortality illnesses

• Increased spread of • Reduced productivity of outdoor
vector-borne and water-borne workers due to heat stress
diseases

• Reduced availability of surface • Reduced agricultural production

Water & Agriculture

water and groundwater and yield

• Decreased recharge of stored • Changes in agricultural
water in dams production sites
• Increased demand for • Reduced livestock production and
desalinated water productivity
• Deterioration in groundwater
quality
Environment

• Reduced species diversity and • Altered species distribution

deterioration of health • Increased stress on ecosystem
• Species habitat loss services

Figure 5: Summary of key sectoral impacts of climate change in the UAE

29
Overall, it is expected that the adverse impacts on
infrastructure may lead to reduced reliability, increased
maintenance costs, and loss of business opportunities
due to disruptions. The construction sector itself faces
climate impacts, with extreme weather leading to
construction delays and increased costs, and more
rebuilding and repair work to be undertaken (Chalmers,
2014).
Public Health
There are three ways in which climate change affects
human health: direct impacts, which relate mainly to
changes in frequency of extreme weather events,
including heat, drought, and heavy rain; effects that are
mediated through natural systems, e.g. water-borne
diseases, air pollution and disease vectors; and effects
that are heavily mediated by human systems, e.g.
occupational impacts and undernutrition (Smith et al.,
2014). According to the World Health Organization,
between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to
cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per
annum from malnutrition, vector-borne diseases,
diarrhea, and heat stress (WHO 2018).
The incidence of very high temperatures is a key risk
factor for public health in hot, arid regions. There is now
evidence to show that average temperature levels as well
as variability in temperature affect human health (Smith
et al., 2014). There is an observed link between heat and
premature mortality, with excess deaths attributable to
increase in temperatures differing across geographies
(Honda et al., 2013; Kinney, 2018). In the Arabian
Peninsula, cases of heat-related illnesses and mortality
may increase with extreme heat and higher average
temperatures. Susceptibility to heat stress depends on
several factors, including physiological adaptation to the
local environment, and socio-economic status
29 Labor capacity here is measured as an acclimated individual’s
occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labor under
determining vulnerability of exposed populations; host
factors such as age and co-morbidities may also
exacerbate heat-related problems (Portier et al., 2010).
Climate change in the Gulf region may worsen
cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses too. Globally,
changing temperatures affect both the incidence and
mortality of respiratory infections (Mirsaeidi et al., 2016).
High temperatures raise the levels of ozone and other
pollutants in the air as well as the levels of pollen and
other aeroallergens (WHO 2018). Also, desertification
and associated increase in the concentration of
suspended particulate matter may contribute to a rise in
respiratory problems (Meltzer et al, 2014). Further,
climate change may trigger outbreaks of vector-borne
diseases (such as malaria) owing to higher temperature
and humidity, though more research is needed to
understand the probability and intensity of such
occurrences. Given that the epidemiology of climate-
sensitive pathogens may be altered, it is suggested that
climate change, with its effect on vectors as well as host
immune responses, could alter the occurrence and
severity of some respiratory infections (Mirsaeidi et al.,
2016).
Notably, the health impacts of climate change imply
productivity losses with reduced person-hours of work.
This holds particularly true for outdoor workers engaged
in manual labor, e.g. at construction sites and farms.
According to Dunne et al. (2013), environmental heat
stress has reduced labor capacity29 to 90% in peak months
over the past few decades, and by 2200, under RCP8.5,
labor capacity is projected to reduce to less than 40% in
peak months, with extreme levels of climatological heat
stress experienced in most tropical and mid-latitudes. A
large segment of the population living in hot regions in
particular will experience significantly reduced work
capacity due to climate change, with the Arabian Gulf
region classified as high-risk (Kjellstrom et al., 2016).
environmental heat stress (Dunne et al., 2013).
30
Water & Agriculture
Countries of the Arabian Gulf are characterized by high
temperatures, low overall precipitation, high evaporation
rate, low groundwater recharge rate, and no reliable,
perennial surface water sources (Odhiambo, 2017).
Groundwater resources are already under strain in the
Gulf region, where irrigation for agriculture accounts for
the largest use of groundwater (Odhiambo, 2017). In the
already water-scarce region, climate change is expected to
modify the hydrological cycle and affect freshwater
resources, with attendant impacts on agriculture.
Freshwater
According to the IPCC (2014), it is projected that climate
change will significantly reduce renewable surface water
and groundwater in most of the dry subtropical regions,
with competing uses in agriculture, community
settlements, natural ecosystems, and industry. UNDP
(2010) states that the MENA region will become more
arid over time, with higher temperatures and less rainfall
reducing surface water availability and slowing
groundwater recharge. Climate models project hotter,
drier, and less predictable climate, resulting in a drop in
water runoff by 10-30% in the Middle East region by 2050,
mostly due to rising temperature and lower precipitation
(Milly et al. 2005). A number of recharge and storage
dams have been constructed in the Gulf countries, but
reduced precipitation may significantly decrease the
amount of water collected. An overall reduction in
recharge of stored water as well as groundwater resources
will likely lead to an increase in demand for desalinated
water (Odhiambo, 2017).
Investigating future water requirements for crop
production and making a case for sustainable agricultural
practices, Shahin and Salem (2015) conclude that the
UAE’s groundwater resources could be exhausted as early
as in 2030. In the UAE and the region, the direct effect of
climate change on groundwater resources depends upon
the change in the volume and distribution of groundwater
recharge from rainfall events. A study focused on Saudi
Arabia estimated that changes in precipitation and
evapotranspiration will lead to reduction in soil moisture
30 According to the Ghyben-Herzberg relation, a one-meter height of free
water table above mean sea level leads to about 40 m of freshwater below
the sea level. Likewise, a 1 m rise in the sea level will cause a 40 m reduction
in the freshwater thickness (Sherif & Singh, 1999).
even while higher temperatures increase the water
demand for agriculture by 5-15% (Chowdhury and Al-
Zahrani, 2013).
Climate change would not only affect groundwater
quantity but also its quality. Sea level rise is likely to lead
to saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers, affecting
groundwater quality. Once saltwater has intruded into
the fresh groundwater system, it is difficult to remedy
groundwater.30 In the UAE, the coastal aquifers that have
freshwater resources, including Fujairah and Ras Al
Khaimah, could be affected.31 Moreover, extreme
precipitation events may mobilize pollutants, and carry
pathogens and other contaminants into waterways
through runoff and flooding (DeNicola et al., 2015).
Water supply is intricately linked to hygiene and
sanitation, and crop agriculture, secondary impacts on
which can increase the burden of disease (DeNicola et al.,
2015).
Agriculture
The health of the climate is intricately tied with the
sustenance and growth of the agricultural sector. The
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that
globally, agricultural production (crops, livestock,
fisheries, and aquaculture) will need to rise by about 60%
by 2050 to feed the world’s growing population. At the
same time, climate change is projected to considerably
reduce the global yield of key staples, such as rice, wheat,
maize, and soybean (FAO, 2016). According to the IPCC
(2014a), the agricultural sector is expected to experience
impacts on production and associated income, including
shifts in production sites of food and non-food crops.
In the UAE and the surrounding region, unfavorable
climatic conditions, scarcity of water, and soils with poor
water- and nutrient-holding capacity are impediments
to traditional agriculture and food production. Arable
land is limited, and local agriculture largely relies on the
use of non-renewable groundwater for irrigation (Brown,
J. et al., 2018). Changes in agro-climatic conditions will
impact prevalent agricultural methods and production,
although the pace and direction of change is uncertain
and will vary across different parts of the region. Increase
31 The groundwater in the coastal aquifers of Abu Dhabi will not be
affected as much, as it is already saline (EAD, 2018).
31
in temperatures and reduced overall rainfall in the region
will likely hold adverse consequences for open-field
agriculture.
Based on IMPACT32 model runs performed in 2015,
agricultural production in countries of the Gulf is
expected to be negatively affected by climate change
(AGEDI, 2015d). Open-field production in the UAE is
restricted to the cool season, which would become
shorter as the average temperature rises. In addition, the
elevated temperature would increase evapotranspiration,
and thus the need for irrigation water supply. In areas
where farmers use brackish groundwater for irrigation,
this would also speed up soil and groundwater salinization.
It is notable that these impacts on traditional agriculture
and arable land underscore the importance of agricultural
technology and innovation not only in optimizing
production and yield from traditional farming but also in
the advancement of alternative agriculture methods,
such as hydroponics, in addition to diversification of
sources of food imports.33
Date palm cultivation and date farming is a significant
agricultural activity in the region, serving domestic as well
as international markets. Modeling how global warming
would affect areas suitable for date palm production,
Shabani et al. (2014) and Shabani et al. (2015) found that
in the Gulf region, date palm production in parts of Saudi
Arabia is projected to decline. Production sites may
become concentrated in the areas that remain suitable
for date cultivation (Abdulkader et al., 2016 and Shabani
et al., 2015).
In addition to impacts on crops and cropland, McDonnell
et al. (2012) posit that climate change will exacerbate risks
for pastured livestock with water scarcity and potential
rise of animal pests. Reduced animal feeds, higher heat
stress, and increased risk of infection and disease will
impact animal production and productivity in the Gulf
region. This will potentially lead to increased movement
in search of better grazing land as well as a shift to non-
agricultural sources of income (Lewis et al., 2018).
32 The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model
for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)
integrates various economic, water, and crop models to analyze climate
change effects on diverse components of the food supply chain.
33 An AGEDI study on the UAE’s food security concluded that the food
security situation of low-income households is set to worsen with changes
Ecosystems
Though they serve as effective means of combating
climate change through the provision of services that
enable mitigation and/or adaptation, ecosystems
themselves are being affected by climate change. Marine,
terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems, and the species
and habitats integral to them are all affected by rising
temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, sea level
rise, and inland intrusion of saltwater. Climate change
can push the tolerance levels of some organisms to the
extent of causing shifts in species composition, migration,
or even extinction. The IPCC (2018) reports that of the
105,000 species studied, 6% of insects, 8% of plants, and
4% of vertebrates are projected to lose more than half of
their geographic range at warming of 1.5°C, compared
with 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates
for warming of 2°C, illustrating the impact of incremental
changes in temperature on biodiversity.
Climate change alters the dynamic equilibrium of
terrestrial ecosystems with its impact on ecosystem
productivity, production of biomass, hydrological
balance, and trophic interactions (Surasinghe, 2011). The
attendant changes directly influence wildlife behavior,
such as foraging, migration, reproduction, and growth,
and determine exposure to pathogens and disease-
causing agents, in effect changing the structure of
terrestrial ecosystems (Surasinghe, 2011). In the UAE and
the region, terrestrial mammals are already close to
temperature thresholds and have access to limited
amount of water (EAD, 2017). Reduced access to water,
loss of terrestrial wetlands due to extreme temperature
and drought events, loss of inland habitats due to sea
level rise, and increased soil erosion and land degradation
can potentially affect terrestrial species. Climate-led
changes in vegetation will also likely impact birds.
An AGEDI study on Regional Terrestrial Biodiversity
Vulnerability to Climate Change modeled the impact of
climate change at both the priority species level and the
community level across the Arabian Peninsula. A Species
in global agricultural markets, including production and prices. The study
utilized the IMPACT model. The UAE outputs took into account a -50
year span from 2000 to 2050, and are built on a business-as-usual scenario
simulating agricultural productivity under a stable climate versus a set of
varying scenarios that account for potential impacts of climate change
(AGEDI, 2015d).
32
Distribution Model, MaxEnt, was used at the priority
species level, and a generalized dissimilarity modeling
(GDM) system was used at the community level, with the
models incorporating information on current and future
climate conditions based on an ensemble approach
(Figure 6).34 The study results indicated that breeding
birds, mammals, and amphibians were projected to have
the most extensive reductions in suitable habitats, while
non-breeding birds, plants, and reptiles were projected to
gain habitats across much of the Arabian Gulf region
(AGEDI, 2016). For the 75 priority species for which
MaxEnt models (measuring distribution of species
occurrence) were used as part of the study, loss of suitable
habitat was projected to be most pronounced in the
South of the region, including the UAE, Qatar, Yemen
(including the island of Socotra), Oman, and the western
coast of Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, gains in suitable
habitat were seen in north-central Saudi Arabia and Iraq,
Figure 6: Modeling approaches used to assess terrestrial biodiversity’s vulnerability to climate change in the Arabian Peninsula (AGEDI, 2016)
of biological and genetic diversity in the marine
environment, in addition to providing vital ecological and
economic functions as feeding and nursery grounds for
marine organisms (Naser, 2014). Climate change triggers
disruptions in these natural habitats through ocean
acidification, stratification, eutrophication, and thermal
expansion. With progressive increase in temperature,
marine and coastal species may be first pushed beyond
their thermal optima and then beyond their upper
thermal limits. Storm surges and coastal erosion may
impact coastal nesting species, such as turtles (EAD,
34 MaxEnt focuses on priority species and provides estimates of changes
in habitat suitability (gains and losses) for each species. GDM estimates the
expected percentage change in species composition at each location as a
function of how much the climate is expected to change in that particular
though the exploitation of these gains by species remains
uncertain, and longer-term projections (i.e. up to 2080)
indicate that gains may be temporary. GDM findings
suggested that reptiles are the subject of the most
widespread and highest adverse impacts of any of the
taxonomic groups. When considered together, the model
results agree that climate change may cause widespread
changes in species composition across terrestrial
environments of the Gulf region: MaxEnt results indicate
that these changes may be largely driven by local
extinction in the South and increases in species richness
in the North, while GDM results suggest that the lowest
overall changes may be limited to the southwestern part
of the Arabian Peninsula (AGEDI, 2016).
Additionally, the Arabian Gulf’s diverse coastal and
marine ecosystems, such as mangroves, seagrass beds,
sabkhas and coral reefs, are at the frontline of climate
impacts. These ecosystems contribute to the maintenance
2017).
Wabnitz et al. (2018) adopted three niche modeling
approaches to assess the future suitability of the Arabian
Gulf as a habitat for 55 priority species. The research also
included a vulnerability assessment of economies to
climate impacts on fisheries. The research outputs
suggested a high rate of local extinction (up to 35% of
initial species richness) by 2090 relative to 2010. Projected
local extinctions were highest in the southwestern part
of the Gulf, off the coast of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and
Qatar. Reduced future fish catch potential was also
location, weighted by the importance of different climate gradients in
determining current biodiversity patterns (AGEDI, 2016). The modeling
approaches thus complement each other.
33
indicated for several countries on the western side of the evidence that interannual variability in the occurrence
Gulf (Wabnitz et al., 2018). and magnitude of coral bleaching events in the southern
Arabian Gulf is linked to the summer shamal wind
A widespread and concerning impact on the environment
regime, as shamal events cool temperatures below
is the increased frequency of coral bleaching events. Risk
bleaching thresholds. Given that summer shamals are
assessment for the environment sector, undertaken as
caused by the pressure gradient that develops between
part of the UAE’s National Climate Change Adaptation
the eastern Mediterranean and northwestern India
Program, identified these as high-risk climate impacts on
during the summer monsoon, it is likely that any climatic
the country’s environment. Though the Gulf’s corals are
changes that influence the strength of the Indian Ocean
seen to be much more resilient than their counterparts
monsoon will affect wind conditions over the Gulf. The
elsewhere, observations and modeling have indicated
interactions of these changes in wind patterns with
that coral reefs in the Arabian Gulf are already impacted
warming temperatures will hold consequences for coral
by climate change through bleaching and other
health (Paparella et al. 2019). Increase in seawater salinity
environmental disturbances (Riegl, Riegl and Purkis, and
and pH will exacerbate the situation.
Riegl et al, cited in Ben-Hasan and Christensen, 2019).
According to Paparella et al. (2019), there is strong

34
5. Conclusion & Way Forward
Climate change modeling and research for the UAE and
the region is limited but growing. Relatedly, more work is
being undertaken to understand the impacts of the
region’s changing climate. This report synthesizes results
from available literature, forming a repository of research
findings on the changing climate in the Arab region and
its impacts on key sectors. It serves as a useful regional
reference for climate researchers as well as policymakers
interested in the topic. While reflecting the state of
regional climate research, it also provides specific results
for climate variables of interest to the region, and the
impacts that countries are witnessing and are projected
to see. The available literature on climate parameters
reveals a wide range of projections for the region on
temperature, precipitation, seawater properties, sea level
rise, and extreme weather events, though it presents a
useful set of initial results and lays the ground for further
research and policy efforts. Initial conclusions can also be
drawn about the current and projected climate impacts
for key sectors.
Challenges remain in the advancement of climate science
in the region. The lack of long-term data and records in
the UAE and the region constitutes a major obstacle in
the calibration and validation of climate change models.
There is also limited empirical research on the socio-
economic impacts of climate change in the region.
Therefore, a strengthened data collection effort is
imperative to improve modeling prospects. Archives of
historical meteorological data need to be built, with
data sourced from reputed platforms that offer quality
assurance. Increase in the resolution of the data
captured would also help enhance the accuracy of local
and regional modeling results.
In this context, regional collaborations aimed at creating
a methodologically diverse research environment would
be greatly beneficial. Increasing the scope of data
collection and research, enhancing data quality, and
developing models with varied scenarios and assumptions
would allow the climate system in the UAE and the
surrounding region to be better documented and
studied. This would help build upon currently available
findings, enabling a comprehensive understanding of the
state of climate in the UAE and beyond.
Additionally, it is imperative to enhance the
understanding of climate’s impacts on the economy as
well as the safety and welfare of communities. Climate
risks and impacts need to be accounted for in
development plans in order to build climate-safe, resilient
societies and economies. As the understanding of the
changing climate improves, this knowledge needs to
inform short-term as well as long-term plans in order to
address imminent climate risks and prepare for risks of
the future under different scenarios of global warming.
Infrastructure, health, agriculture, and the environment
are at the forefront of climate impacts. More localized
assessments are needed across the region to prioritize
high-risk sectors and further identify priority risks within,
on the basis of magnitude and likelihood, with these
results then mainstreamed into policymaking.
Mutually informed climate science and adaptation
planning is needed to ensure that the UAE and the wider
region are well-equipped to address climate risks and
impacts.
35
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