Section 4.1 (cont.

)
Probability Trees

A Graphical Method for

Complicated Probability
Problems
Example: Southwest Energy
A Southwest Energy Company pipeline has 3 safety
shutoff valves in case the line starts to leak.
The valves are designed to operate independently of
one another:
7% chance that valve 1 will fail
10% chance that valve 2 will fail
5% chance that valve 3 will fail
If there is a leak in the line, find the following
probabilities:
a. That all three valves operate correctly
b. That all three valves fail
c. That only one valve operates correctly
d. That at least one valve operates correctly
A: P(all three valves operate correctly)

P(all three valves work)

= .93*.90*.95
= .79515
B: P(all three valves fail)

P(all three valves fail)

= .07*.10*.05
= .00035
C: P(only one valve operates correctly)

P(only one valve operates correctly

= P(only V1 works)
+P(only V2 works)
+P(only V3 works)
= .93*.10*.05
+.07*.90*.05
+.07*.10*.95
= .01445
D: P(at least one valve operates correctly)

7 paths

P(at least one valve operates correctly

= 1 P(no valves operate correctly)
= 1 - .00035 = .99965
1 path
 Example: AIDS Testing
V={person has HIV}; CDC: Pr(V)=.006
P : test outcome is positive (test
indicates HIV present)
N : test outcome is negative
clinical reliabilities for a new HIV test:
1. If a person has the virus, the test result will
be positive with probability .999
2. If a person does not have the virus, the test
result will be negative with probability .990
 Question 1

What is the probability that a randomly

selected person will test positive?
Probability Tree Approach

A probability tree is a useful way to

visualize this problem and to find the
desired probability.
 Probability Tree
clinical Multiply
reliability branch probs

clinical
reliability
 Question 1 Answer

What is the probability that a randomly

selected person will test positive?
Pr(P )= .00599 + .00994 = .01593
 Question 2

If your test comes back positive, what is

the probability that you have HIV?
(Remember: we know that if a person
has the virus, the test result will be
positive with probability .999; if a person
does not have the virus, the test result
will be negative with probability .990).
Looks very reliable
 Question 2 Answer

Answer
two sequences of branches lead to positive
test; only 1 sequence represented people
who have HIV.
Pr(person has HIV given that test is positive)
=.00599/(.00599+.00994) = .376
 Summary
Question 1:
Pr(P ) = .00599 + .00994 = .01593
Question 2: two sequences of branches
lead to positive test; only 1 sequence
represented people who have HIV.
Pr(person has HIV given that test is positive)
=.00599/(.00599+.00994) = .376
 Recap
We have a test with very high clinical
reliabilities:
1. If a person has the virus, the test result will be
positive with probability .999
2. If a person does not have the virus, the test result
will be negative with probability .990
But we have extremely poor performance when
the test is positive:
Pr(person has HIV given that test is positive) =.376
In other words, 62.4% of the positives are false
positives! Why?
When the characteristic the test is looking for is
rare, most positives will be false.
 examples
1. P(A)=.3, P(B)=.4; if A and B are mutually
exclusive events, then P(AB)=?
A B = , P(A B) = 0
2. 15 entries in pie baking contest at state
fair. Judge must determine 1st, 2nd, 3rd
place winners. How many ways can
judge make the awards?
15P3 = 2730